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[Markets] Stocks Dip, Crypto Rips As 'Dark Winter' Trumps 'Spring Reopening' Stocks Dip, Crypto Rips As 'Dark Winter' Trumps 'Spring Reopening' Tyler Durden Fri, 11/20/2020 - 16:00

For all the hype about vaccines returning us to normal, it appears to be more a "sell the news" event as vaccine good news is stimulus bad news (and Mnuchin's move didn't help the latter's hype). So, in spite of all the good news on vaccines and treatments, stocks were mixed with S&P and Dow red on the week (Dark Winter?), Small Caps best (value rotation), Nasdaq tumbled into the red in the last few minutes (mixed picture)...

It appears winter is coming before spring can sprung...

Last night's headlines on Mnuchin ending various fed programs sparked some early selling that the machines bid back overnight. However, today's opex weighed as gamma pins were lifted but again we saw the chaotic last hour as stocks initially tanked then were panic-bid, then reversed to the lows of the day (aside for Small Caps)...

Airlines rallied this week (but faded the last couple of days)...

Source: Bloomberg

Similar picture for banks as they eked out gains after a strong start...

Source: Bloomberg

Momentum fell relative to value for the second week in a row...

Source: Bloomberg

Notably, however, the momo/value rotation drastically decoupled from bond yields this week...

Source: Bloomberg

HY bond prices dropped today, but modestly, not reacting very violently to Mnuchin's Fed punchbowl pull...

But spreads did decouple today from equity risk...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the mixed bag in stocks, bonds were bid aggressively with the long-end yield dropping over 11bps...

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields tumbled, erasing all of the Pfizer vaccine spike...

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar drifted lower all week, back at the post-election, pre-Pfizer-vaccine lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos had a big week with Litecoin and Ripple outperforming...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin neared its record high...

Source: Bloomberg

And Ethereum surged back above $500...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin has erased most of the DeFi boom outperformance of Ethereum...

Source: Bloomberg

Copper and Crude rallied on the week as PMs limped lower...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold bounced off the Pfizer vaccine plunge lows...

Oil (WTI) ended the week above $42...

Copper has soared to a two year high on vaccine 'return to normal' hopes, but the copper/gold ratio remains entirely decoupled from bonds...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, as Bloomberg reports, the world's stock of negative-yielding debt climbed to a record $17.1 trillion as pandemic-spurred economic damage and monetary stimulus continued to grip bond investors even as news of progress on a vaccine lifted equity markets. The frenzy for China's first sovereign-bond sale with a sub-zero yield only underscored the unwavering demand for the asset class.

And that is supportive for gold (and maybe one reason for Bitcoin's surge)...

Source: Bloomberg

And in stock-land, Nomura's Charlie McElligott warns that the data suggests a significant amount of the aggregate options position $Gamma to run-off across SPX / SPY, QQQ, IWM and EEM as per standard options expiration cycle - and in-light of such extreme “long $Delta,” the end of day today into early next week is the window for the market to “un-pin,” especially as recent and incredibly supportive Dealer Vanna- and Charm- flow is gone.

Trade accordingly.

Published:11/20/2020 3:14:29 PM
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