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[Markets] Stocks Near Record Highs As Economic Data Dumps To 21-Month Lows

US equity markets are within an algo's angry inch of record highs - which must mean everything is awesome, right?

There's just one thing... US Economic Data surprises are at their weakest since July 2017 and are currently at the worst of all the world's majors...

We've seen this before...

And one more thing... earnings expectations aren't buying the bounce either...

And one more thing - Volume is notably (negatively) diverging from price action in this latest surge for the highs...

And finally, one last thing - Dr.Lumber (Dr.Copper's much more knowledgable big brother) is not buying it... again!

So what's lifting stocks? Simple - the central banks...

Because in this fragile world - as an increasing number of non-elites realize the curtain has been pulled back and the level of stocks is all that matters...

*  *  *

Monday's weakness in Chinese stocks was quickly swiped away by a morning and afternoon session surge...

 

European markets also surged, led by Germany's DAX...

 

US markets were less exuberant that Europe and China but managed gains again. AAPL's weakness dragged the market briefly red in the last 30 mins, but as always it bounced... Nasdaq best on the day, S&P managed very modest gains...

 

Big sell program hit at 330ET...

 

Semis soared to a new record high after the QCOM-AAPL settlement...

 

AAPL dipped into the red, then the machines bid it back to $200...but that did not hold and dragged the broader markets lower...

 

REITs were whacked - worst day of 2019 - as Tanger Factory Outlet Centers spooked investors and started to price in mall occupancy risks more fully...

 

Boeing bounced on FAA headlines...

 

US Treasury yields rose notably once again today...

As Bloomberg notes, Walmart’s $4b bond offering appeared to weigh on Treasuries after it was announced, while Wednesday’s scheduled deluge of Chinese economic data was an incentive to hedge.

With 30Y testing up towards 3.00% (notably decoupling from the S&P though on the day)...

 

And while US rates have been rising, all eyes are on China's yield spike, which has driven it back to a critical level against USTs...

 

China rates are up 9 of the last 11 days - rising 33bps - the biggest such spike since Nov 2016 (Trump election) and Nov 2013 (the yield peak for the recent cycle)

 

The Dollar Index rallied for a 2nd day but stalled at recent resistance...

 

Cryptos managed small gains on the day led by Litecoin and Ethereum, but Bitcoin Cash remains the week's winner for now...

 

WTI and silver managed gains on the day as copper was flat as gold sank...

 

Gold was clubbed like a baby seal into the London Fix (once again)...

 

Decent shift lower in Gold/Silver (Silver outperforming Gold)...

 

Finally, while we started with a smorgasbord of more macro charts, we leave you with the biggest of big pictures...

Winter is coming.

Published:4/16/2019 3:26:22 PM
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