China's National Development and Reform Commission stopped short of announcing new stimulus plans on Tuesday, sending shockwaves through Asian equity markets. In metal markets, iron ore prices plunged, proving Goldman analysts right in their recent note to institutional clients to "fade iron ore rallies."

"NDRC underwhelms relative to elevated stimulus expectations (little incremental and no hints at new local government special bond issuance). PBOC-owned newspaper running story that authorities are guiding against bank lending that goes directly to the stock market (probably a good thing)," Goldman's Rich Privorotsky told clients this AM.

Privorotsky said, "Iron ore -4%, copper -2 and hsi futures -7-8%. Off shore property stocks remain probably the single most volatile pocket of the equity market down nearly 20%." 

Iron ore futures jumped nearly 29% from the lows of around $90 a ton beginning in late September on optimism that Beijing would boost the economy and oversupply conditions in China's steel industry would dissipate. However, when NDRC did not deliver additional stimulus today, iron ore went into meltdown mode, plunging 5% to the $105 level. Iron ore is a key ingredient for steelmaking, which has suffered amid a multi-year property crisis in the world's second-largest economy. 

In a separate note, Hang Jiang, head of trading at Yonggang Resources Co. in Shanghai, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying, "There had been talk that the NDRC may announce trillions of yuan in stimulus, but it came out with nothing at all," adding, "The stimulus from China so far is not going to yield a significant turnaround for base metals." 

Jiang pointed out, "We need to see stimulus feed into a real pickup in consumption before we can see big price rallies."

Perhaps that's why Goldman's Thomas Evans told clients two weeks ago that "any rally in iron ore prices should be faded." 

"In the long term, steel overcapacity and growing supply in iron ore are the two biggest headwinds to ferrous supply chain, which can't be fixed any time soon. The indicator to watch is whether, when and how much iron ore production would be cut from junior miners for market to rebalance," Evans said. 

In broader metal markets, aluminum, zinc, nickel, lead and tin were lower more than 2%. Bloomberg noted, "For the steelmaking staple, the seaborne market looks to be oversupplied. Unless and until China's mills start making more steel, and the nation's property crisis gets a proper fix, that's going to remain the case."

Fading the iron ore rallies is in play. 

Authored by Luis Cornelio via HeadlineUSA.com,

Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton has demanded that the Biden-Harris administration turn over data to verify the citizenship status of nearly 454,289 registered voters in Texas. 

In a letter addressed to USCIS Director Ur M. Jaddou on Monday, Paxton raised concerns that these individuals may have unlawfully registered to vote without having their citizenship status confirmed.  

Paxton requested Jaddou’s assistance in identifying non-citizens on the voter rolls to ensure only eligible voters cast ballots in the 2024 presidential election, which is expected to be close.

“The Biden-Harris Administration is legally obligated to assist States in doing so, and it is imperative that we use every tool available to uphold the integrity of our elections,” Paxton wrote. 

I demand full cooperation from the federal government to ensure that any noncitizens remaining on Texas’s voter registration rolls are identified. The Biden-Harris Administration is legally obligated to assist States in doing so, and it is imperative that we use every tool… https://t.co/dvNkOpiLC4

— Attorney General Ken Paxton (@KenPaxtonTX) October 7, 2024

Paxton’s request follows an investigation by his office and Secretary of State Jane Nelson, which found individuals who registered to vote without providing a state driver’s license or other state-issued identification.  

This, Paxton argued, made it near impossible for state officials to verify these individuals’ citizenship. It is not immediately clear when these individuals were registered to vote. 

“I am not asking for verification of the citizenship of anyone whose voter registration records contains [sic] a driver’s license or state-issued identification number,” Paxton clarified. 

According to Paxton, over 1,300 non-citizens were found registered to vote during an audit of four randomly selected counties. 

“That is 1,300 too many when so many of our federal, state, and local election [sic] are decided by a handful of votes,” Paxton wrote.

Paxton noted that Texas has exhausted all available methods to confirm the citizenship status of the voters in question and is now demanding federal assistance.

However, it is unlikely that the Biden-Harris administration will respond or cooperate with Texas on this issue. 

On Sept. 27, the DOJ filed a lawsuit against Alabama after Wes Allen, the Republican secretary of state, inactivated the voter registrations of 3,251 individuals due to a lack of citizenship verification. 

The actual details of this DOJ lawsuit against Alabama are insane.

Kamala’s DOJ is suing them because they removed less than 4,000 people from the voter rolls who registered despite not being citizens. pic.twitter.com/rXne2h4l9d

— Greg Price (@greg_price11) September 28, 2024

The DOJ argued that Alabama’s actions violated the National Voter Registration Act of 1993.

Allen defended his decision in an interview with Headline USA, stating, “I was elected Secretary of State by the people of Alabama, and it is my Constitutional duty to ensure that only American citizens vote in our elections.”

94-year-old Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway has been on a multi-month dump-a-thon of Bank of America shares. The reason for the abrupt selling, which began in mid-July, has yet to be officially disclosed but should be viewed as an ominous sign that the 'Oracle of Omaha' foresees economic trouble ahead. 

The latest Bloomberg data shows that Berkshire's total proceeds from selling BofA shares have now topped a whopping $10bln.

Traders at Berkshire began paring down the massive investment in mid-July, pressuring the bank's shares ever since. In the last three trading days, Berkshire sold $383mln worth of shares. 

The latest selling is the first round of Berkshire selling BofA shares since right before the pandemic.

Even with all the selling, Berkshire's BofA position is still massive, totaling $31.35bln. 

Berkshire is still the largest shareholder of the bank.

Buffett's stake in BofA has now dwindled to 10.1%, meaning just a bit more selling would drop it below the 10% regulatory threshold. Once that threshold is reached, Berkshire will no longer be required to report additional sales to the SEC.

We offered some theories about possible motives behind Buffett's BofA dumping, including an overvalued market, recession risk, consumer downturn, and the possibility that a US regulatory probe into anti-money laundering surrounding fentanyl cash laundering could expand to major US banks. 

Buffett's cash pile has also soared to record highs. 

Hmm.

Buffett also dumped half its Apple shares. 

The bottom line is that unlike in October 2008, Buffett led the call to "Buy American"...

... this time, he is selling American at a worrisome pace. 

The Global Innovation Index (GII) 2024, published by the World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO), ranks 133 economies based on their innovation capabilities and performance. This year’s report highlights shifts in global innovation leadership, with a focus on emerging economies challenging traditional leaders.

To summarize the results of this year’s GII, Visual Capitalist's Marcus Lu visualized each economy’s score using a global heatmap. Lower scores are shown as darker shades of blue, transitioning to green and then yellow as score increases.

Methodology

The GII measures each economy based on seven underlying innovation pillars, which altogether comprise 78 indicators. These are summarized in the table below:

The overall GII scores (which are what we’ve shown in the graphic above) are based on the average scores from these seven pillars.

Most Innovative Countries in 2024

The following table includes all of the data we used to create this graphic. For the 14th consecutive year, Switzerland was named the world’s most innovative country.

Similar to last year, the U.S. takes third place in the GII. It ranked the highest in Market Sophistication (#1) and Business Sophistication (#2), but its overall score was dragged down by its lower rank in Infrastructure (#30).

A key theme of this year’s GII is innovation overperformers, which are countries that perform above expectation relative to their level of development.

The top three in this regard are India, Moldova, and Vietnam. All three of these economies have overperformed over the past 14 years since 2011.

Other Key Takeaways

The GII 2024 also provides insight into the current state of global innovation. Here are some of the highlights:

• Technological progress: The rate of progress in green technologies is lagging behind average growth for the decade. A key challenge here is reducing the energy consumption of supercomputers.

• Technology adoption: 5G, robotics, and electric vehicles are all seeing increased penetration levels.

• Socioeconomic impact: The GII reports mixed progress, partly due to the COVID-19 pandemic. For example, levels of poverty are higher than those recorded in 2018, while life expectancy remains at 2015 levels.

If you enjoyed this post, check out this ranking of the top companies by number of AI patents granted on Voronoi, the new app from Visual Capitalist.

Milton weakened overnight to a Category 4 hurricane. The storm is an "extremely dangerous" threat as it churns near the Yucatan Peninsula, barreling toward Florida's Gulf Coast this AM, with landfall impacts expected on Wednseday night or early Thursday morning. 

According to the National Hurricane Center's 0500 ET update, Milton was downgraded from a Cat. 5 to Cat. 4, with maximum winds up to 155 mph while traversing the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico at 12 mph with an east-northeast heading.  

The latest storm data shows Milton is completing an eyewall replacement cycle. This means the strongest winds extend further out from the center as the eye grows in size. 

Hurricane Milton has weakened by 30 mb over the last 5 hours due to eye wall replacement. Wow. pic.twitter.com/mQKqvfIwqM

— Max Velocity (@MaxVelocityWX) October 8, 2024

The Weather Channel's Jim Cantore warned on X, "Focus on the surge NOT the category!"

Focus on the surge NOT the category! https://t.co/0nf1ZCtLwD

— Jim Cantore (@JimCantore) October 8, 2024

NHC's peak storm surge forecast shows Milton could generate a wall of water as high as 15 feet across Tampa Bay, Sarasota, and Venice. 

Computer models are shifting south with landfall impacts from Sarasota to Port Charlotte instead of the initial forecasts for Tampa. 

#Milton - southward trends in the overnight ECMWF guidance...

The ensemble system has exhibited a southerly trend overnight, bringing the most likely track (black line) closer to Sarasota - this would expose Sarasota and Port Charlotte to the worst of the storm surge.

There's… pic.twitter.com/QPdYmnN0WD

— Ben Noll (@BenNollWeather) October 8, 2024

More trajectory models. 

On Sunday, Florida launched the largest evacuation since Hurricane Irma in 2017. Hurricane warnings have been posted for the region. 

Via Remix news,

Poland’s Piotr Serafin will probably take over as EU commissioner for budget on Dec. 1, but the president of the European Commission is already organizing his most important task: the draft EU budget for 2028-34. The document, seen by Polish media outlet Rzeczpospolita shows that the German, Ursula von der Leyen, wants to dismantle regional policy across the EU, which will have a profound effect on Poland.

The money that is currently given to the regions, and largely managed by them (two-thirds of EU structural funds), would be given instead to the governments of the member states. These governments would then divide it as they saw fit, allowing for more centralization and control, a move that would better suit a Brussels looking to expand its control through a top-down approach.

Instead of the 530 currently operating programs (including 398 concerning cohesion policy), Ursula von der Leyen proposes 27 national operational programs. Each such program will include all expenditures that have so far made up cohesion policy and agricultural policy, including even subsidies for farmers. The programs will be divided into sectors, e.g., transport, energy, agriculture, or internal affairs and migration — all under the slogan of simplification. The second slogan repeated by von der Leyen is “flexibility.” She wants to introduce the principle of an “annual review” of the multiannual budget, which she argues will increase flexibility. Money allocated to one area could therefore be shifted to another purpose if necessary.

Experts who spoke to Rzeczpospolita unofficially have no doubt that this proposal means the elimination of regional policy, which von der Leyen clearly does not like, which is more control for rural areas on how funding is spent with these rural areas often leaning more conservative.

The end of EU regional policy

Why is this dangerous? In such a scenario, the liberal elite in Brussels could win every time. First, when the central government is of a different political color than the local government, the distribution of EU funds can be an element of rewarding its party allies.

Let’s imagine a situation where Poland’s Law and Justice (PiS) returns to power and does not transfer money to voivodeships or cities governed by PO. However, in such a scenario, Brussels could turn around and cut funding to Poland if it disagrees with PiS’ policies. In the event that a left-liberal government carries out such actions, it could simply look the other way and allow funds to continue to flow.

Von der Leyen also wants the payment of money to be on the condition of reforms at the central level, even if the regions have nothing to do with the lack of reforms. Finally, the transfer of competencies to the central level means that many regions will not have coherent investment programs.

For decades, the EU has been building a regional policy based on the principle of convergence, or raising the level of development of poorer areas. It had a developed methodology, instruments for negotiating programs with governments and regions, and criteria for granting money. The aim of such a policy was also to bring the EU closer to its citizens: local authorities were involved in writing operational programs and the effects of EU money were visible on the ground.

Now, von der Leyen proposes throwing this policy in the trash and introducing a transactional method: the government carries out reforms and, in return receives money and divides it between sectors.

Ursula von der Leyen’s revolution a problem for Poland. Local authorities fear centralization

“We urgently need new investments and solutions, and therefore funds, available quickly, easily and flexibly at the levels where they occur, i.e. at the level of municipalities and counties, to the extent adapted to their needs,” said Hanna Zdanowska, mayor of Lódz, member of the European Committee of the Regions, during an interview with Rzeczpospolita.

“Centralization or nationalization of cohesion policy in times of an ongoing global political crisis can become a very dangerous trap,” she added.

Many EU countries may like such a reform.

“We like it,” a diplomat from one of the net-contributor countries tells Rzeczpospolita. According to him, this limits Serafin’s scope of action.

“He is very competent, but he will have to move within the limits set by von der Leyen,” he adds.

Strict control over Polish commissioner Piotr Serafin

The new plan by the German EU commission president gives direct supervision over the draft budget to herself and the secretary-general of the European Commission, who is an official completely dependent on von der Leyen. In short, the new budget proposal would increase her power immensely.

The document provides for the creation of a steering committee, in which, in addition to Serafin, two people will be mentioned. 

Von der Leyen’s plan will certainly not appeal to several member states with a strong regional voice, such as Poland, Germany, Romania, or Belgium. It will also certainly be contested by many MEPs, who may demand commitments from the commissioners-designate (including the Italian Raffaele Fitto, responsible for cohesion policy) as early as November.

Read more here...

A multi-year olive oil shortage in Spain, which accounts for about 40% of global production, pushed prices to record highs earlier this year amid sticky food inflation worldwide. Now, there is some good news, as Bloomberg reports olive oil production in the southern Europen country is set to rise, possibly alleviating the severe supply crunch. 

New data from the Spanish Ministry of Agriculture, Fishing and Food forecasts that the world's top olive oil producer will record about 1.26 million tons this year, or about a 48% increase versus 2023. This would ensure Spain's olive oil production returns to the long-term average. 

The skyrocketing price of olive oil, sometimes called "liquid gold," has been primarily due to two years of poor harvests across the Mediterranean because of adverse weather conditions, such as widespread drought. This pushed prices to record highs of nearly 9,000 euros a ton at the start of 2024.

Spot prices for Spanish Olive Oil Extra Virgin peaked at 8,835 euros a ton in late January and have since tumbled into a bear market, sliding to around 7,000 euros a ton by fall.  

Here's more from Bloomberg:

Signs of a better harvest have seen the commodity decline by more than a fifth from highs above €9,000 a ton. Shoppers will probably only benefit from lower prices later on, as supply contracts are usually negotiated months in advance. Weather conditions in the coming weeks could also impact on production as harvesting of the crop has only just begun, the Spanish government said.

The surge in olive oil prices due to adverse weather conditions has also affected other food crops, including cocoa, oranges, and other softs, as well as beef.

Last Friday, the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations' Food Price Index, which tracks the international prices of a basket of globally traded food, jumped the most in 18 months in September. 

This reacceleration in global food prices has ignited fears supermarket prices are set to surge again. 

Readers have been well informed about the rising risks of global food inflation re-accelerating. We said in June...

About a year ago, Sara Menker, founder and CEO of Gro Intelligence, warned in a Bloomberg interview that the current global food crisis is 'much worse than 2008'. 

In the US, the Harris-Walz campaign's only proposed solution to tackle rampant food inflation has been 'communist price controls'... 

Food inflation is very sticky. Maybe it's time to ditch de-growth 'climate change' policies to bring inflation lower.  

Authored by Conor Gallagher via NakedCapitalism.com,

As Israel — with US support — continues its rampage across the Middle East, Türkiye is assessing the shifting landscape and weighing costs and opportunities, including economic and security concerns, ties with NATO on one hand and BRICS countries on the other, and its own regional aspirations.

Turkish Parliament Speaker Numan Kurtulmus emphasized the country’s position over the weekend, saying that Türkiye follows its own “national axis” in foreign policy and rejects the idea that it must align with any power or bloc. Where is that “national axis” going to take the country as the Middle East goes up in flames and Türkiye is positioned to play a key role?

One route it appears certain not to take is concrete position to Israel. Despite all Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s rhetoric against Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and company, goods from Türkiye continue to make their way to Israel. Oil continues to flow through the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan pipeline from Azerbaijan to Türkiye’s Ceyhan port where it is shipped to Haifa — constituting roughly 40 percent of Israel’s supply.

In early May, Türkiye said it was halting exports to Israel due to the “worsening humanitarian tragedy” in the Palestinian territories. Yet goods, including critical minerals and chemicals used by the Israeli military get around the export ban by simply going through third countries, such as Greece. And the US is still using Incirlik Air Base in southern Türkiye to assist Israel.

This is unsurprising as In some ways the US/Israel current rampage through the Middle East fits with Turkish goals. Here are six issues confronting the Turkish government as it decides how to proceed:

1. There are suggestions that the US and Israel are after regime change in Lebanon. 

Here’s the executive director of the influential neocon Washington Institute for Near East Policy:

But this is also a moment for the Biden administration to shift focus from its Sisyphean pursuit of a Gaza cease-fire to taking advantage of the opportunities presented by Israel’s seismic shock to Hezbollah.

With assertive, engaged diplomacy, the Biden administration can help engineer a new security regime that allows civilians to return to their homes along the Israel-Lebanon border and work with local and international partners to help build a new political architecture for Lebanon.

This isn’t the Saudi-Israel peace and normalization accord that the Biden administration hoped to leave as a legacy — though there might be one last bite at this apple during the presidential transition — nor even the Gaza cease-fire for which the White House has labored for months. But after a year of tragedy and sadness, this would be real progress. At the same time, it is essential for Washington to warn Tehran about the high price it will suffer if it decides to make a dash for a nuclear-weapons capability. By building on Israel’s killing of Nasrallah, President Biden has the opportunity to leave the Middle East better today than it was on Oct. 8, which is no small achievement.

Türkiye would support such a goal as it is no fan of Hezbollah, and any weakening of the latter’s influence in Syria, could allow Türkiye to increase its footprint.

“If it translates into a longer-term weakening of Iran and allied Shiite groups, including Hezbollah, that will really pave the way for Türkiye to play a more dominant role” in Syria and Iraq, said Gönül Tol, Türkiye director for the Middle East Institute, a research center in Washington.

During the Syrian Civil War, Türkiye and Hezbollah fought on opposing sides. Hezbollah supports the Assad government, while Türkiye supported Syrian opposition groups like the Free Syrian Army seeking to overthrow Assad — although it now focuses primarily on fighting (US-backed) Kurdish groups in Syria and has sought to improve ties with Assad at the behest of Moscow and Tehran. Progress has been slow, however.

While the Turkish government offers statements of support for the Lebanese people, pro-government media in Türkiye lambast Hezbollah:

On a program aired by A Haber, retired Colonel and security pundit Coskun Basbug claimed that Nasrallah was working for Mossad and that Hezbollah’s leadership was “sold out.” Basbug argued that Hezbollah could have turned the Israeli border into a “hell” but did not due to its compromised leadership. Basbug stated that Nasrallah and other Hezbollah leaders were discarded by those who used them. Additionally, he referred to Hezbollah’s missile attacks as mere “firework displays.”

Yeni Safak columnist and a former Justice and Development Party (AKP) MP Aydin Ünal said the assassination of Nasrallah was met with joy and excitement by the oppressed Syrians. Ünal said that Nasrallah, following orders from Iran, had brutally and mercilessly carried out massacres of Muslims.

There are now growing calls in Türkiye for the country to abandon its more conciliatory approach of the past few years and return to one of trying to expand its influence by whatever means necessary. Those efforts mostly ended in disaster and left Türkiye more isolated, but memories are short when opportunity comes calling. Dr. Samir Salha, the founding dean of the Law Faculty at Gaziantep University in Türkiye and a professor of law and international relations there, argues that “the region’s escalating violence contradicts Ankara’s strategy of resolving disputes with neighboring countries.”

Not sure how that makes sense, but it is representative of a popular rationale among the more interventionist faction of the Turkish elite.

There are now reports (although not the most reliable) that Ankara is planning “limited” ground operations in Northwestern Syria. To what end is unclear. Türkiye’s military presence in Idlib is now mostly observation posts, support for the area’s Sunni Islamist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and an entente with Russia. Any operation would likely be to close off borders or reinforce HTS — although the latter option could bring Türkiye into direct conflict with Russia.

The Erdogan government, however, is facing increasing calls to do something because of our next point.

2. Syrian and Now Lebanese Refugee Crisis.

Türkiye is already struggling with inflation and economic stagnation, and it could face additional economic shocks if the conflicts intensify disrupting energy supplies and trade routes.

Türkiye is also currently hosting millions of Syrian refugees. Many more are likely to be on the way soon.

Since Israel began its destruction of Lebanon in earnest, roughly 220,000 people have fled into Syria (many are Syrians who had left during the country’s conflicts). That number is expected to grow considerably should the bombing campaign continue and many will attempt to make their way to Türkiye.

The refugee situation along with the economy were the two biggest issues in the presidential and parliamentary elections last year — a vote Erdogan barely survived. Nationalists arguing for the expulsion of Syrian refugees were some of the biggest winners. A major influx of new refugees is going to be problematic for the Erdogan government, and he faces pressure to secure the country’s borders, particularly given the economic situation.

3. Conflict Spillover into Syria.

The Syrian War never officially ended. It’s just slowed to a simmer, but that looks to be changing. Israeli airstrikes in Syria, refugees from Lebanon, and Iran and Hezbollah’s focus on Israel, could all contribute to the destabilization of the fragile ceasefires in various parts of country. Here’s current lay of land:

Israel has carried out regular airstrikes on Syria in recent years, but they are now ratcheting up in frequency and severity — including two this week alone on Damascus.

Now the US/Israel is saying they’re trying to stop the flow of weapons from Iran through Syria to Lebanon.

Israeli military alleges Hizbullah smuggling arms from Syria through al-Masna'a crossing, "urges" Lebanese authorities to inspect cargoes and turn back trucks with arms, otherwise threatens Israeli action.

This is the main crossing through which civilians have fled to Syria. https://t.co/7QtYiGm26y

— Sam Heller | ??? ???? (@AbuJamajem) October 3, 2024

Then they bombed the alleged smuggling tunnel. The damage now means refugees now must largely trek into Syria on foot.

Early on Friday morning, Israel bombed the Masnaa border crossing between Lebanon and Syria, along with its vicinity, forcing the closure of the international highway.

The Israeli army claims it struck a 3.5 kilometer underground tunnel crossing from Lebanon into Syria.… pic.twitter.com/Ee09WyIgOy

— The Cradle (@TheCradleMedia) October 4, 2024

According to some reports, Hezbollah has withdrawn many of its fighters from Syria in order to join the conflict in Lebanon. A reduced Iranian and Hezbollah presence potentially opens the door for Sunni extremist groups in the region, which Türkiye and the US often support in an effort to bring down Assad.

4. ISIS Being Prepped for a Comeback Tour?

Here’s the Middle East Institute on the group’s resurgence:

In an unusual public statement late on July 16, United States Armed Forces’ Central Command (CENTCOM) announced that after six months of 2024, “ISIS is on pace to more than double” the number of attacks in Syria and Iraq it claimed in 2023. According to CENTCOM, ISIS has so far conducted 153 attacks across both countries from January through June, noting that “the increase in attacks indicates ISIS is attempting to reconstitute following several years of decreased capability.” CENTCOM’s commander, Gen. Michael E. Kurilla, insisted that achieving an enduring defeat of ISIS still relies on the “combined efforts of the Coalition and partners”

5. Multiple US Proxies Versus Russia in Syria?

Among recent Israeli airstrikes in Syria was likely one that targeted an ammunition warehouse near the largest Russian air base in Syria.

BREAKING:

???????? Israel strikes a Russian weapons depot in Syria.

Israel has finally poked the Bear.

The Israeli military is targeting sites in western Syria coastal cities

Large scale airstrikes in the Syrian city of Jableh, near Russia's Hmeimim Airbase in western Syria on… pic.twitter.com/QELX8vjzcG

— Megatron (@Megatron_ron) October 3, 2024

Russia successfully protected Syria during the Western-instigated “civil war” led by its jihadist fanatics. Are we about to get another round with additional players? The US’s favorite neo-Nazis from Ukraine mixing it up with Turkish-backed Islamisists with support from the genocidal Israel Defense Forces ? What could go wrong?

Here’s where things get interesting regarding Türkiye. Moscow is alleging that Kiev and Washington are training militants from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham (HTS – the group in Idlib along Türkiye’s border with Turkish support). Here’s Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov last week:

“Vladimir Zelensky’s regime, in coordination with the Americans, is training terrorists from Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham in Syria, using new UAV production technologies for combat operations against Russian forces in the republic.”

A September 9 report in the Turkish newspaper Aydinlik backs up Lavrov’s claim. It reported that Ukraine is offering drones and training in return for individuals in HTS prisons to fight Russia. Earlier in September Ukrainian special forces allegedly launched an attack on a Russian military facility on the outskirts of Aleppo. From Military Watch:

 According to Western sources, the attack saw powerful explosion followed by secondary detonations causing serious damage to the site. Aleppo has long been on the frontier of attacks from jihadist groups due to its close proximity to the Turkish border, with Türkiye being the primary state sponsor of Islamist anti government militants in the country and placing the Syrian governate of Idlib, currently run by the Al Qaeda affiliated Al Nusra Front, under its protection. Ukraine has escalated efforts to provide armaments and training to Islamist groups targeting Russian forces, and alongside Türkiye has for several months deployed special forces to northwestern Syria specifically to support militant groups based there.

Moscow is also now warning that the US and UK are planning to use Ukraine to unleash a chemical weapons false flag provocation in Syria — although this could also be being released by Russia in order to justify coming operations in Northwestern Syria to root out Ukrainian and HTS operations there.

What role will Türkiye play?

6. The US and the Kurds

In many areas, Türkiye and Russia have been increasingly cooperating in Syria while Türkiye and the US frequently come close to direct conflict. Importantly, Turkish and Iranian interests have also aligned:

Iranian and Turkish interests seem to be increasingly aligning, particularly in their united front against Israel’s actions toward Hamas and in opposing the resurgence of a U.S.-led regional order. However, their historical competition for strategic dominance in areas like Iraq and Syria, coupled with the distinct forms of revisionism that the AKP and Iranian leadership champion on the global stage, suggests that any emerging alliance between them might remain tenuous and susceptible to strains in the mid to long term.

The question is if Türkiye’s calculus changes due to the potential weakening of Hezbollah and Iranian positions in Syria. There exists the possibility that Türkiye might trade its support for Islamists in Northwestern Syria for a green light from Russia to go on the offensive against Kurds in Northeastern Syria, but we’ll see.

Elsewhere Turkish ties with both Russia and China have been steadily improving, which is helping Erdogan slowly rebuild the Turkish economy. Would he potentially throw away that progress on another chance to increase Turkish influence in Syria? At the same time, Turkiye’s economic ties with the West — primarily the EU of which it is a member of the customs union —  still dwarf those of Russia and China. And we know loads of economic pressure is constantly on Ankara to toe the NATO line, as evidenced by the increasing number of US sanctions on Turkish entities.

One last consideration for Ankara is the prospect of an increasingly powerful Russian-Iranian presence surrounding Türkiye should the US/Israel be soundly defeated in the current conflicts and the Americans booted from many of their Middle East outposts.

While Türkiye is wholeheartedly opposed to US support for Kurdish groups in Iraq and Syria, it has also long tried to balance Russia and the US off one another in the region. Either one with an overwhelming advantage is cause for concern in Ankara, which might help explain the recent talk of Türkiye potentially handing over its Russian S-400s to the US and assisting US/Israel efforts in the region.

Authored by Thomas Brooke via Remix News,

Slovak Prime Minister Robert Fico has reaffirmed his opposition to Ukraine’s potential NATO membership, warning that such a move could lead to broader conflict.

In an interview with STVR on Sunday, Fico claimed that the ongoing war in Ukraine is being prolonged by Western support with the goal of “bringing the Russians to their knees,” a position he believes is futile.

“There is a military conflict going on in a country that is Slovakia’s neighbor, where Slavs are really being killed and where Europe is significantly supporting this killing,” Fico said, as cited by the Pravda news outlet.

He emphasized that the conflict cannot be resolved militarily and warned against further Western involvement in Ukraine.

While he expressed support for Ukraine’s eventual membership in the European Union, the Slovak leader clarified that NATO membership is a step too far.

“As long as I am the prime minister of the Slovak Republic, as long as I lead the deputies, whom I, as the party chairman, have under political control, I will never agree to Ukraine’s membership in NATO,” he declared.

Fico further cautioned that Ukraine joining NATO could pave the way for a “third world war.”

Fico also used the interview to criticize what he described as “Russophobia” in Western discourse, reminding listeners that “Freedom came to Slovakia from the east,” in reference to the Soviet Union’s contribution to the defeat of Nazi Germany.

He announced his intention to visit Moscow next year on the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II to honor Russia’s role in liberating Slovakia despite the current geopolitical landscape.

“Let’s not automatically assume that when we speak positively about the Red Army or the former Soviet Union, we are agents of Putin,” Fico stressed, urging for more balanced views on Russia and its historical role.

Fico reaffirmed Slovakia’s commitment to meeting its NATO obligations by spending 2 percent of GDP on defense. However, he voiced opposition to further increases in defense spending, proposing instead that part of these funds be allocated to civilian projects, such as building a hospital in Prešov and reconstructing infrastructure.

“The Ministry of Defense is ready to provide an additional €300 million for objectives that are on the one hand military, but at the same time can serve civilian purposes well,” Fico said, outlining his vision for a balanced approach to national defense and public investment.

Read more here...

There is some good news and some bad news for China bulls this morning (local time).

First the good news: since mainland China (aka A-shares) were closed for the past week, mainland Indexes such as the Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 are up - just barely - because after opening up almost 11% to catch up with the frenzied rally in offshore markets and ETFs, the index has erased almost all gains since it closed for trading on Sept 30.

For the real action, one has to go to neighboring Hong Kong, which was open while China was closed, and which proceeded to soar as much as 30% since the China stimulus bazooka was fired on Sept 23 (just two days after we said it would be). It's also were the bad news is because one look at what the local Hang Seng China Enterprises Index is doing, and HK longs will want to throw up: as shown below, not only are HK stocks down as much as 11% after the open, but they have somehow managed to wipe out almost half the gains since the bazooka was launched in less than two hours!

What sparked this liquidation? Well, yesterday China unveiled yet another "emergency" stimulus meeting, this time held by the National Development and Reform Commission (i.e., China's central planning bureau). Expectations were high that just like the emergency Sept 26 Politburo meeting which was led by president Xi himself, today China would unveil even more sweet, sweet stimmies.

Alas it was not meant to be, and the press conference led by Zheng Shanjie, chairman of China’s top economic planner, the National Development and Reform Commission was an epic dud: in it, Shanjie said that while external risks and downward economic pressures were increasing, they remained confident of achieving the full-year GDP growth target. He said new policy measures will focus on expanding domestic demand, increasing support and the property and capital markets.

In short, nothing new, and certainly nothing even remotely close to the Rmb 10 trillion in fiscal stimmies that many were expecting. As UBS writes, "the NDRC press conference has released no details on fiscal stimulus so far, with the Q&A session ongoing. Zheng Shanjie along with deputy heads Liu Sushe, Zhao Chenxin, Li Chunlin and Zheng Bei, were widely expected to announce an action plan at the press conference. As a result, USDCNH is coming up, while iron ore and copper are declining. Shenzhen’s ChiNext has narrowed gains to 13% from more than 18% earlier as China returned from the Golden Week holiday."

What is the take home message here? First, that Jim Cramer was - as usual - a fade.

Cramer: "You have to come in China stocks right now"

That's the top.

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 2, 2024

The second, and far more important message, is that the half life of Beijing's latest attempt to goose markets, at just around 10 days is the shortest of all...

... and it means that with the market having called Beijing's bluff, Xi has two options:

• Do another half-assed attempt to stimulate the economy with the very limited measures already unveiled, which he knows - and more importantly the market knows - will achieve nothing, and spark another market crash and economic meltdown, or
• Do what Goldman trader Borislav Vladimirov laid out yesterday, when he said that China Must Do QE Now, "Or It Will End Up In A Bigger Hole In 12 Months."

And since for Xi the time for half-measures is now over, especially if he wants to avoid a deflationary spiral, social insurrection and political mutiny, this only leaves one option open: the truly nuclear one. The only question is when, because while the market may have peaked at +30% the first time China tried to goose markets, the next time we are talking triple digits, not to mention $3K gold and $100K+ bitcoin.

Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times,

California officials are investigating a potential third case of bird flu in humans, with the individual likely getting infected from cows, according to the California Department of Public Health (CDPH).

CDPH confirmed the first two human cases of bird flu in California on Oct. 3. while the third possible case was revealed in an Oct. 5 update.

“The case was identified in a Central Valley individual who had contact with infected dairy cattle,” CDPH said in the update. “Specimens are being sent to the CDC to undergo confirmatory testing.”

There is “no known link or contact” between the third case and the first two reported cases, it noted. This suggests “only animal-to-human spread of the virus in California,” it said.

The two confirmed cases were also in Central Valley, with all three individuals having had contact with dairy cattle at three different farms.

“Like the first two cases, this individual also experienced mild symptoms, including eye redness or discharge (conjunctivitis). None of the individuals have been hospitalized,” the department said.

CDPH assessed that the risk of bird flu infecting the general public was low. People who interact with affected animals, such as workers at poultry or dairy farms, are at a higher risk of contracting bird flu, it said.

The agency advised such individuals to use personal protective equipment such as respirators, gloves, and eye protection when working with animals that are infected or have potentially contracted the virus.

Although milk from sick cows is not permitted in the public supply according to state and federal regulations, milk and dairy products that are pasteurized are safe to consume, as the process inactivates the virus, the CDPH said.

According to the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, bird flu in cows was detected for the first time in the United States this year.

The virus is widespread among wild birds and has been responsible for outbreaks among poultry in the country since 2022.

In total, 17 human cases have been reported so far this year, as of Oct. 3, in five states—Texas, Michigan, Colorado, Missouri, and California.

Six of these cases were linked to exposure to infected or sick dairy cows, while nine were due to exposure to infected poultry. Colorado registered the highest number of cases, at 10.

Bird Flu in the United States

The first multistate outbreak of bird flu in dairy cows was reported in late March. A few days later, the CDC confirmed a bird flu infection in an individual from Texas who was exposed to these animals.

By Oct. 1, more than 10,000 wild birds with bird flu were identified. More than 100 million poultry birds across 48 states have been affected. As of Oct. 4, outbreaks in dairy cows have been reported across 14 states, with 255 herds impacted.

The CDPH advises people exposed to infected animals to monitor themselves for the following symptoms for 10 days after last exposure—eye redness (conjunctivitis), cough, sore throat, runny or stuffy nose, diarrhea, vomiting, muscle or body aches, headaches, fatigue, ??trouble breathing, and fever.

“If they start to feel sick, they should immediately isolate, notify their local public health department, and work with public health and health care providers to get timely testing and treatment,” the CDPH said.

A person holds a test tube labeled 'Bird Flu,' on Jan. 14, 2023. Dado Ruvic/Reuters

On Friday, the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response’s Center for Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority announced it was providing roughly $72 million to three companies to boost the manufacture of bird flu vaccines as part of national preparedness.

The funds are being provided to CSL Seqirus, Sanofi, and GSK. These firms will “fill and finish additional doses of their influenza A(H5) vaccines from bulk storage into ready-to-use vials or pre-filled syringes so that vaccine[s] will be ready to distribute if needed.”

The U.S. Food and Drug Administration has scheduled an Oct. 10 meeting of its Vaccines and Related Biological Products Advisory Committee to discuss preparedness for countering threats posed by the bird flu virus.

Authored by Jeffrey A. Tucker via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

The day before the Vance/Walz vice presidential debate, I was having lunch with a gentleman with an old-world education, certainly of the highest levels, but just Brooklyn public schools in the old days. He is not a credentialed intellectual in any official sense but it was fascinating to hear him speak about almost anything, even when we disagreed.

He mentioned in passing that he can hardly have a conversation with anyone under 40 these days. This is not because they are stupid or inexperienced. It is because they do not speak properly. They cannot seem to form sentences coherently. They are not adept at normal communication. The language they speak is not anything like standard English and neither is it some charming slang.

The new language is something else, born of purely oral transmission and heavily informed by influencer culture and podcasting. Buzzwords are thrown around everywhere as a replacement for actual language. The vocabulary is small, including the incessant use of “literally,” “so,” “annoying,” and “actually.”

There are repeated words that grate on one’s nerves: “go” instead of said or did, “you know” and “know what I’m saying?” as a random filler, ending most sentences with “right?” plus the worst offender: the incessant deployment of the word “like,” often every 4 or 5 words.

This prattle is embedded in a lyrical formulation that includes three crucial elements: nasal sonorities, raising intonation, followed by an ending vocal fry. Every bit of combination conveys an attitude of “nothing matters,” “I don’t care,” and “to make sure you don’t criticize me, I’m making sure that my words mean as little as possible.”

Yes, I’ve noticed all this, and it is getting worse. English is being replaced by something else entirely. Sitting on a train a few weeks ago, I had people in front, behind, and to the side who were all deploying this strange language. They spoke incessantly the entire trip, and said nothing at all of any meaning.

I simply cannot understand why this is happening. It strikes me as highly dangerous for a culture to lose its language and have it replaced by a series of pidgin utterances that are vague, strange, and largely without content.

What proved so striking about JD Vance’s performance in the debate was the full rejection of this entire way of speaking. Even apart from his content, logic, and command of facts was the erudition itself. That’s what commanded the evening. It caused his points to soar above his opponent and also the hectoring moderators who were reading from scripts.

I hope millions of young people listened in but they should recognize something here. He won the evening not only because of the points he had to make. He won because of the clear way that he made them. Even now, and probably especially now, erudition inspires trust and credibility.

Even as the debate opened, Vance’s opponent punctuated his stream of filler with various sounds of uhhh, which already prepared the listener to disregard the rest.

As Vance took his turn, we got clear English with no filler words or verbal tics at all. His elocution and vocabulary were such a relief! It served as a reminder of they way Americans used to speak before the digital age.

Most times, it is not obvious what distinguishes a compelling answer from one that is not. We tend to think it is about facts or charm or some attitude of joy. It is not. All those evaporate when countered with a clean and meaningful presentation of ideas, with sentences that start and stop with an intuitive cadence and no superfluous extras thrown in to distract.

Here is a secret you will never learn in school and no one will tell you: this kind of erudition is vital and essential to success in absolutely everything. It does not matter your profession or area of specialization. Those who can speak clearly and without fluff will be more successful than those who cannot.

It’s not obvious that the under 40 set that speaks the language we might call “influencer” understands that the habitual gibberish that has replaced English is professionally disastrous for them. Absolutely no one really wants to hear it. It’s awful and once you really take note of the mechanics of this language, the words themselves become sources of grave irritation.

Maybe this is why noise-canceling earbuds have become so popular!

Even now, nothing replaces coherent and cohesive language and vibrant and confident elocution.

At some point in the past, I had somehow picked up the “like” virus. When I realized it was happening, I simply worked on deleting it from my conversations. When I said it, I would give myself a mental pinch. It worked. By day’s end, it was gone. Even now, I do have to concentrate a bit to keep it out of conversation. When you are speaking with someone who deploys it constantly, it can creep into your own language when you do not realize it.

The same strategy can be used for the other problematic tics that festoon contemporary language. Carving them away is like making a sculpture: leave only what matters and then you are in a better position to evaluate the quality of what you are saying. I personally still have a problem with saying “you know” too often, a habit I picked up from a British friend many years ago. It’s a constant struggle to purge it, and when I fail to be conscious of the problem it comes back.

Beyond culling the gibberish, what else can you do?

First, before you speak in answer to any question, simply take a second or two to think about your first word. Make it matter. If you do this, you can stop with the habit of always saying “well” and “so” in front of every sentence (in fact, Vance himself could work on this). Pausing briefly also leaves a bit of space in the audible environment that directs more attention to what you are about to say.

Second, read more. And here I do not mean captions on TikTok videos. I mean actual books. Some of my favorite stylists in American English are H.L. Mencken, F. Scott Fitzgerald, Ernest Hemingway, Garet Garrett, and Albert Jay Nock. You don’t need to be super fussy about this, the Harry Potter books are fantastic for young people and adults too. And try to read them out loud so that you hear new words and expand your vocabulary.

Third, try some exercises. Go to the park or the store or just take a walk, come home, and stand in front of the mirror and describe what you did, what you found, and offer an opinion. Consider videotaping yourself while you are speaking with a conscious effort toward erudition. Watch it back and critique it again.

If you do these three things, you will discover that you can upgrade your language skills in a matter of days. Constant practice will give you a huge advantage over all your peers. Clear speaking is compelling in all times but especially now because it is so rare.

Laura Ingraham said of Vance’s performance that it was the finest she had seen of any political candidate in the 18 years she had covered politics. There are many reasons but the least understood and the most important one is that he speaks plainly, cleanly, coherently, and cohesively. As should we all.

Authored by Jack Phillips via The Epoch Times,

The U.S. Supreme Court declined to take up a challenge filed by Elon Musk’s X platform to rulings that forced it to turn over data on former President Donald Trump’s X account to special counsel Jack Smith.

In 2023, Smith obtained a warrant for Trump’s Twitter account as part of federal prosecutors’ 2020 election case against the former president. Trump had frequently used the account during the 2016 presidential campaign and during his first administration.

The high court on Monday rendered its decision without any comment. There were no noted dissents.

The Musk-owned platform had initially refused to comply with a nondisclosure order and was fined $350,000 by a judge in August 2023, records show. At the time, the court had rejected X’s claim that it should not have been held in contempt or sanctioned.

Smith’s team repeatedly mentioned Trump’s posts on Twitter in the first indictment, which was unsealed last year. A revised indictment was brought against Trump by Smith in September after the Supreme Court separately ruled in July that presidents should be declared broadly immune from prosecution for their official acts and duties. Trump has pleaded not guilty to all the charges in the case.

Prosecutors obtained the search warrant on Jan. 17, 2023, directing Twitter to produce information on Trump’s account after a court “found probable cause to search the account for evidence of criminal offenses,” according to last year’s court ruling. The government also obtained a nondisclosure agreement that had prohibited Twitter from disclosing the search warrant, the filing says.

In its appeal to the Supreme Court in May, X argued that Smith’s team carried out an “unprecedented end-run around executive privilege” by obtaining a “nondisclosure order preventing Twitter from notifying former President Trump of a warrant for private communications that he sent and received during his presidency.”

“Although Twitter had provided these communications to the National Archives and Records Administration (NARA), the government informed Twitter and the district court that it ‘did not want to obtain data from NARA, as it would require notification [to the former President] pursuant to the Presidential Records Act,'” the petition said.

In trying to bolster its case before the Supreme Court, X had said its petition was designed to allow the court to uphold the First Amendment.

“The potential consequences are far-reaching,” the company said.

“Twitter alone annually receives thousands of nondisclosure orders attached to demands for user information. Indeed, the D.C. Circuit agreed that this issue is likely to recur for Twitter. Other platforms, too, receive thousands of requests for user information—many with nondisclosure orders.”

Lawyers for Smith’s team dismissed X’s arguments, telling the Supreme Court that the social media platform cannot assert any privilege over the records in question.

“The First Amendment did not justify petitioner’s refusal to comply” with the special counsel’s warrant “before litigating its separate challenge to the nondisclosure order,” the government wrote, adding that X is trying to assert a “right to immediate resolution of its First Amendment claim to interests.”

Arguing that the Fourth Amendment allows the government to get a warrant to “search property belonging to an innocent third party,” Smith’s office suggested that the warrant for X “is supported by probable cause that ‘evidence of a crime will be found.'”

Meanwhile, Smith last week filed a 165-page brief that included what prosecutors say is evidence that proves Trump committed crimes and tried to illegally overturn the 2020 election. Trump’s lawyers had argued that the Smith filing at this time would be tantamount to election interference due to its close proximity to the 2024 election, which a federal judge ultimately rejected.

Monday is the Supreme Court’s first day back from its summer break. The nine justices are now scheduled to hear major cases from now until around June 2025.

The pilots of what appears to be an unmarked Sikorsky UH-60 Black Hawk helicopter generated a massive downwash, also known as rotor wash, that sent tents and aid flying in all directions at a volunteer supply zone operated by private citizens in western North Carolina.

This action by the helicopter pilots is up for debate, with many on X believing this was an intentional act of sabotage by the federal government. 

Why did an unmarked Blackhawk rotor wash a supply drop off in western North Carolina pic.twitter.com/CqkgCvwEVZ

— Washingtons ghost (@hartgoat) October 7, 2024

There are no official statements by local, state, or federal governments about the incident. Flight tracking data shows that the Black Hawk is military-owned. 

This is a United States Military Blackhawk. Squawk 6453, call sign: FURY147 pic.twitter.com/VvzE7YkiUL

— Megan Martin (@Megan_OM) October 7, 2024

The big discussion here is whether the incident was intentional or unintentional.

Commentary on the video may suggest intentional... 

That the Black Hawk approached and hovered directly over the volunteer supply zone certainly raises questions about the mission of this chopper; especially in light of the fact that many residents, officials, and private citizens point out the government's apparent efforts to block or intercede in rescue efforts outside of FEMA's control.

Elon Musk's SpaceX found out this stark reality just days ago. 

SpaceX Engineer In North Carolina Has Dire Warning: Biden-Harris' FEMA "Actively Blocking Shipments" For Relief https://t.co/aydr7R3wrd

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) October 4, 2024

"Believe your eyes, people! Believe what you see is happening!" one X user wrote in response to the video.

Believe your eyes people! Believe what you see is happening!

— Viking Prairie (@RL1225) October 7, 2024

Others said...

This is absolutely on purpose and someone needs to be checking the flight logs to find out who did this/authorized this.

This type of action is disgraceful and should be beneath our armed forces who are sworn to protect our citizens.

— Simon VanDyk (@VandykSimon) October 7, 2024

Very true but it would be hard to believe that this was done by a rogue pilot.

— Simon VanDyk (@VandykSimon) October 7, 2024

That pilot needs to be prosecuted. pic.twitter.com/TThXnWRtnU

— Fight With Memes (@fightwithmemes) October 7, 2024

Kamala Harris is disenfranchising voters is what’s going on.

They are slow walking, thwarting and trying everything they can to ensure people can’t recover on time to vote 11/5.

That’s what this is all about. Period. pic.twitter.com/LXUyBFLMfy

— Liberacrat™? (@Liberacrat) October 7, 2024

They are sabotaging efforts in Republican areas ahead of the election.

They are betting that this will win Democrats those states.

It is sick and disgusting. ??

— FloridaMan.eth ?? (@votefloridaman) October 7, 2024

The scariest nine words in the English language are, "I'm from the government and I'm here to help." ???? Exhibit A

— The Conservative Alternative (@OldeWorldOrder) October 7, 2024

As we've previously noted, the poor residents of western NC should consider identifying as "Ukraine," "Lebanon," or non-US citizens to receive federal aid more quickly. 

Authored by Charles Hugh Smith via OfTwoMinds blog,

Those few who grasp the crisis in its entirety have been marginalized, and those who are left are drifting downstream, unable to move the mass of self-interested inertia even if they wanted to.

In eras of stability when little changes, the capacity to adapt takes a back seat. As noted in Why Political "Solutions" Don't Fix Crises, They Make Them Worse, absent any pressure from tumultuous change, nature is hard-wired to keep the genetic instructions unchanged, as there is little selective benefit in modifying what's working well and potential risks in messing with it.

In other words, nature is conservative in eras of stability and low volatility. Since its genetic instructions are working pretty well, the shark genome is relatively stable over millions of years, with a few tweaks here and there to adapt to changes in its environment.

But adaptative churn takes the driver's seat when the ecosystem changes rapidly and the existing instructions are failing. This is the adapt or die moment, when species must experiment by churning out modifications (semi-random mutations in the instructions) and test them in trial-and-error: the ones that add selective advantages live, the ones that don't die.

If this period of intense adaptive experimentation is ultimately successful, the species' rate of change spikes and then drifts down to the baseline of low activity. This is known as punctuated equilibrium: the instructions drift along when nothing much is changing, suddenly spike when selective pressures shoot up, threatening extinction, and then diminish as the new adaptations relieve the selective pressure.

All this is automatic and beyond the individual's and the species' conscious control. We can't order our genome to speed up mutations and get cracking on the adaptive modifications.

Human civilization operates on the same principles of adapt or die: when circumstance change, selective pressures mount and the society must adapt or perish.

What's different is humans can stifle or encourage adaptive churn. As social beings hard-wired to organize ourselves in hierarchies, those at the top of the power pyramid will naturally deploy all their power to conserve the status quo, as any modifications might threaten their outsized share of all the good things such as wealth and status.

The view from the top of the pyramid is rather grand. Those at the top see the vastness of the imperial reach, the army's strength, the peasantry toiling away and the obsequious Mandarin bureaucrats bowing and scraping, and the idea that all this immense structure could decay and blow away is incomprehensible.

There is little sense in the top circle that the extinction of the entire social order is a threat. The threat is more personal: is my private fiefdom at risk of being diminished? Are rivals gaining influence? Are the reforms being proposed positive for my fortunes or could they pose a threat?

This narrow view of the overlapping crises (a.k.a. polycrisis) favors short-term expediency over more radical long-term modifications, as the Powers That Be have a grip on expedient "stave off the immediate crisis" measures such as imposing curfews, lowering interest rates and increasing the pay of soldiers, but these measures are slapdash rather than part of a recognition that radical changes in the structure of the society must be organized now, not later, for later will be too late.

In other words, there is no urgency for the kind of reforms needed to avoid extinction, there is only urgency for expedient "kick the can down the road" measures because these measures 1) are within easy reach and 2) they don't threaten the pyramid of power the "deciders" dominate.

Put another way, faced with skyrocketing risks of a heart attack, the leadership concludes that cutting out the HoHos but keeping the DingDongs and Twinkies will be enough to maintain the status quo. That the crises demand a complete overhaul of diet and fitness, now, not later, is both 1) too painful to contemplate, and 2) beyond the reach or the leadership's atrophied adaptive skillset: the leadership only has experience with managing stability, not tumultuous crises.

There is an irony in this atrophy of competence: the longer the good times roll, the less experience anyone has of polycrisis. In the competitive churn at the top of the pyramid, the skills that are most valuable in periods of stability are those of bureaucratic in-fighting and maintaining the status quo. Since there is no selective pressure demanding radical changes to survive, the skills needed to manage such a radical transition are nor longer present.

Those with the necessary character and skills to manage radical transformations have all been sent to Siberia for threatening the status quo with all their crazy proposals. Those in power have been selected to believe the organization they rule is perfectly capable of adjusting as needed, without actually changing anything.

This is the exact opposite of what's needed to survive the challenges ahead. And so expedient can-kicking continues (cough, the Fed), grand pronouncements yield nothing but hot air, and everyone reckons cutting out the HoHos and reducing the DingDongs will be enough to ride out the rough patch.

This is of course hubristic delusion. But since events are accelerating and interacting in ways far beyond the grasp of the under-competent leaders, the focus is not on managing a desperately needed radical transformation but on managing the narrative so it looks as if the crises are under control, and the status quo is functioning as intended: we have top people on it, top people. Indeed.

Adapt or die or... decay. Complex systems that have survived for a long time seek to restore equilibrium. These are the expediency feedback loops, where interest rates and taxes are trimmed, money is thrown around, narratives that question the competence of the status quo are suppressed, insiders who reveal the self-serving predation of the leadership are hustled off to Siberia, and all is well, as the decay can be covered up for quite some time.

So quality decays first, then quantity decays, too. Each crisis reveals another layer of under-competence and dry-rotted foundations, and each one is dutifully papered over.

Those few who grasp the crisis in its entirety have been marginalized, and those who are left are drifting downstream, unable to move the mass of self-interested inertia even if they wanted to--and they don't really want to because why should we risk upsetting such a splendid arrangement that's capable of handling anything that arises with ease?

Decay is a perfectly adequate strategy if there's sufficient resources to keep everything glued together as it slowly unravels. Magical thinking (AI!) helps smooth the decline, and soon everyone habituates to decay.

Polycrisis has a way of disrupting decay. If conditions remain stable, decay can be managed. But if volatility soars and multiple crises arise and reinforce each other, decay accelerates into collapse.

The ability to discern an existential challenge before it's too late is rare and unrewarded. "When you're thirsty, it's too late to dig a well."

*  *  *

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A quiet macro day was dominated by domestic weather horrors, foreign war escalations, and tech monopoly tumult.

As the anniversary of the Oct 7 attacks hit, more missiles flying in the MidEast sent crude prices higher with WTI above $77 for the first time since mid-August (from three year lows) and fears about Gulf refinery impacts from Milton also spurred prices higher)...

Source: Bloomberg

On a domestic bigger picture, the 'rates-growth tango' - as Goldman's Chris Hussey calls it - appears to be back as the payrolls beat has sent yields dramatically higher... and that is weighing on stocks (less rate-cuts, higher costs of funding, lower struck Fed put).

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-cut expectations are tumbling (less than 2x 25bps cuts now priced in by year-end and less than 4 more cuts next year now)...

Source: Bloomberg

All the US majors were ugly today, with futures dumped at the European open and accelerating lower as the GOOGL judgment hit...

Mag7 stocks were weighed down by anxiety ahead of Tesla's Robotaxi day and also by GOOGL getting hit with an app store injunction (ordering the tech giant to open its app store to competition).

Source: Bloomberg

'Most Shorted' stocks were hammered today, erasing all of Friday's squeeze gains...

Source: Bloomberg

Friday's bond bloodbath continued today with the short-end once again underperforming (2Y +8bps, 30-Y +5bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s10s) briefly inverted once again this morning...

Source: Bloomberg

With 2Y and 10Y yields both topping 4% once again...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar went nowhere today, oscillating in a very tight range after Friday's spike...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold also traded in a narrow range, falling slightly on the day...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin saw two major buying legs in today's price action, lifting it up to $64,5000 before tech was hit by GOOGL headlines (and that weighed on crypto)...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, forgive us for keep pointing this out but USA sovereign risk won't stop rising...

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, only a racist would tie together that surge in the world's perception of Washington's weakness and the "polls" telling everyone that Kamunism is killing it...