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[Markets]
Be Careful What You Wish For: This Event May Signal the Start of the 2024 Bear Market
The past four years have been nothing short of a wild ride for Wall Street. Since this decade began, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-fueled Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), have bounced back and forth between bear and bull markets in successive years. Currently, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite are enjoying a major rally off of their 2022 bear market lows.
Published:12/10/2023 4:14:08 AM
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[Markets]
Musk Asks Zelensky About Imprisoned American Journalist After Tucker Carlson Sounds Alarm
Musk Asks Zelensky About Imprisoned American Journalist After Tucker Carlson Sounds Alarm
In May, American YouTuber and columnist Gonzalo Lira was arrested in Ukraine because he “publicly justified” the Russian invasion, according to a press release by the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU).
The statement from Kiev said that Lira “has the citizenship of one of the countries of Latin America” but omitted that he is also California-born U.S. citizen, as ZeroHedge contributor Space Worm reported at the time.
Following his release, Lira said he was tortured in a Ukrainian prison, explaining that "two thugs held my head and used a toothpick to scratch the whites of my left eye, while asking me if I could still read if I had just one." Lira informed followers that he was making a mad-dash via motorcycle towards the Hungarian border:
Grayzone reporter Liam Cosgrove pressed State Department spox Matthew Miller on the issue, asking how the Biden Administration has allowed an American to be tortued by a closely allied nation:
Even more damning about Miller's non-answer is that 3 months prior, Miller admitted that the State Department was aware of Lira's imprisonment and plead the Fifth when asked whether the administration planned to advocate for his release:
Tucker and Elon sound the alarm
In a Saturday post on X, Tucker Carlson highlighted Lira's situation and spoke with the journalist's father. Carlson asked why the Biden administration is allowing this, and questioned what kind of country Ukraine is for doing this to an American simply for criticizing the government.
In response, Elon Musk asked: "An American citizen is in prison n Ukraine after we sent over a $100 billion?" adding, "Is there more to this story than simply criticizing Zelensky?"
"If that’s all it is, then we have serious problem here."
Musk then directly asked Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky to explain...
Which reminds us, 2024 presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy pointed out that Ukraine is an extremely corrupt country.
Is the worm turning?
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[Markets]
Eyes will focus on Jerome Power and the Fed this week
The Federal Reserve's decision on where to set its key interest rate will offer a strong signal to investors and consumers on whether the central bank thinks its two-year war on inflation is won.
Published:12/9/2023 10:35:58 PM
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[Markets]
The Venezuela-Guyana Dispute Explained In 3 Charts
The Venezuela-Guyana Dispute Explained In 3 Charts
In a territorial dispute spanning nearly two centuries, tensions between Guyana and Venezuela have once again reached a boiling point.
As Visual Capitalist's Bruno Venditti and Nick Routley detail below, the focal point of this dispute is the vast Essequibo region which encompasses around 70% of Guyana’s territory, and is roughly equivalent to the size of Florida.
Venezuela claims historical rights dating back to the Spanish colonial period when Essequibo fell within its boundaries.
In 1840, the British government drew the Schomburgk Line expanding the territory of British Guiana (now Guyana) far beyond the occupied area and to the strategically-located mouth of the Orinoco River.
This line played a pivotal role in shaping the modern borders of the region by defining the territory claimed by the UK, and later, a decolonized Guyana, as the country gained independence in 1966. That same year, Venezuela and the UK signed an agreement aiming for a negotiated solution.
In 2004, President Hugo Chávez eased border tensions under the advice of Fidel Castro, stating that he considered the dispute to be finished.
Recent events, however, have reignited the dispute. Between 2015 and 2021, Guyana announced the discovery of about 8 billion barrels of oil, elevating a country with fewer than a million people to a prominent position among the top nations in terms of oil reserves. ExxonMobil, leading a consortium, operates three offshore projects in the country, earning nearly $6 billion in 2022 alone.
Venezuela’s Referendum and New Map
On December 1, 2023, the World Court ordered Venezuela to refrain from actions in the border dispute with Guyana. However, just two days later, on December 3, Venezuelans approved a referendum claiming sovereignty over Essequibo.
President Maduro subsequently ordered the creation of a new state, Guayana Esequiba, within Venezuela’s borders, and released a new map of the country.
Venezuela’s new territorial claims don’t stop on land, they extend far out into sea as well. Specifically, Venezuela is claiming a critical area called the Stabroek Oil Block, where ExxonMobil and others are already active.
With a population of around 125,000 people, the disputed region is full of dense rainforest, making a military incursion from Venezuela feasible only by sea or through the Brazilian state of Roraima. Brazil, maintaining good diplomatic relationships with both countries, has already increased military personnel on the border. The U.S. announced joint military flight drills in Guyana on December 7.
Despite increased military presence in the region, many experts believe that President Maduro has no intention of actually annexing Essequibo, and that this recent claim is a tactic to bolster his own image within Venezuela.
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[Markets]
Long-Term ADHD Medication Use May Increase Heart Disease Risk: Study
Long-Term ADHD Medication Use May Increase Heart Disease Risk: Study
Authored by Amie Dahnke via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A new study indicates that long-term use of attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) medication may increase the risk of developing cardiovascular disease and that the risk increases the longer the drug is used.
 (joel bubble ben/Shutterstock)
The results of the study conducted in Sweden were published in JAMA Psychiatry, bringing to light the potential risks of long-term ADHD medication.
About 6 million, or 1 in 10, children ages 3 to 17 have been diagnosed with ADHD, according to data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Approximately 8.7 million adults in the United States also have ADHD. Individuals with ADHD may have difficulty paying attention, find it hard to sit still, or act without thinking; the symptoms and specifics vary from person to person.
Medication has been the standard treatment of care for decades, researchers wrote, adding that "the use of ADHD medication has increased greatly in both children and adults during the past decades." Medication therapies include stimulant and non-stimulant therapies, with modalities being determined by the patient's needs.
Risk Grows With Duration of Use
In the study, researchers looked at 13 years of records in the National Inpatient Register of over 278,000 individuals between the ages of 6 and 64 with ADHD. They found that the longer an individual used ADHD medication, the higher their risk was of developing cardiovascular disease compared to those who did not take ADHD medication. Additionally, each additional year an individual used ADHD medication increased their risk of heart disease by an average of 4 percent. Overall, the results suggest that heart disease risk was 23 percent higher for people who used ADHD medication for more than five years compared to those who never used it. The risk was stable among children and adults, both male and female.
Cardiovascular diseases linked to ADHD medication include hypertension and artery disease. There was no increased risk for other associated conditions, such as heart failure, arrhythmias, thromboembolic disease, arterial disease, and other forms of heart disease.
The study confirms previous research that indicated patients taking stimulant ADHD medication, such as Ritalin or Adderall, are at higher risk of developing cardiovascular disease than those taking non-stimulant ADHD medication. The reason for the development is likely because the stimulants in the drugs are known to elevate blood pressure, arouse the nervous system, and make the heart work harder.
The study authors noted that clinicians should "be vigilant in monitoring patients ... and consistently assess signs and symptoms of CVD (cardiovascular diseases)," especially in patients receiving high doses of stimulant medications.
Those taking ADHD medication should monitor their heart health regularly. ADHD patients can rely on the American Heart Association's Life's Essential 8, a set of key health behaviors and factors that can alter one's risk of heart disease. The Essential 8 include the following:
- Eating healthily.
- Being more active.
- Quitting smoking.
- Getting enough sleep.
- Managing weight.
- Controlling cholesterol.
- Managing blood sugar.
- Managing blood pressure.
No Proof of Causation
Researchers noted the limitations of the case-control study, including that it cannot prove that ADHD medication causes any cardiovascular disease problems.
Additionally, the study's sample was limited to one country, which could indicate the need for more diversity in the future.
Of prominent note: Researchers did not look at the risk of cardiovascular disease in those who already had heart issues.
The authors indicated that further research must be done that examines those with preexisting cardiovascular disease. "Evaluating the risk among them necessitates a different study design that carefully considers the potential impact of prior knowledge and periodic monitoring," they wrote.
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[Markets]
Guess What Industry Dominates 2023's Top TV Advertisers
Guess What Industry Dominates 2023's Top TV Advertisers
In 2023, advertising spend is projected to reach $61.3 billion on U.S. broadcast and cable TV.
Despite declining viewership, traditional TV has been found to be an optimal platform for storytelling ads. Additionally, advertisers can target viewer segments on traditional TV—similar to digital marketing channels.
Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld shows the top advertisers on traditional TV outlets in the chart below, based on data from Nielsen.
Top 10 National TV Advertising Spenders
Here are the top advertisers on national U.S. broadcast and cable TV for the month of June 2023:
Procter & Gamble was the top TV advertising spender in the U.S., at $109.3 million. Home to Gillette, Crest, and Tide, the company spent a stunning $5.1 billion in overall advertising in 2022.
Pharmaceutical companies Abbvie and GSK were the next biggest spenders, at $81.4 million and $52.8 million, respectively. Overall, pharmaceuticals accounted for the largest share of advertising across the top 10.
Big tech companies Alphabet and Amazon also made the list, each spending over $30 million in June alone.
Top 10 Local TV Advertising Spenders
By contrast, the automotive sector made up seven of the top 10 local broadcast and cable TV advertisers, led by General Motors and Toyota:
Meanwhile, communication giants Comcast and Charter were big spenders, and the nation’s largest personal injury law firm, Morgan & Morgan, ranked in seventh overall.
U.S. Television Trends
Today, live TV viewership in the U.S. is primarily made up of those aged 65 and over, which spend nearly five hours per day watching TV. In contrast, those aged 25-34 spend only about one hour and 12 minutes per day watching live TV.
Furthermore, in 2022, fewer than half of U.S. viewers paid for traditional TV services for the first time. By year-end 2027, this proportion is projected to fall to just over a third of households.
Yet due to its scale of available media inventory, traditional TV may continue to bring in the bulk of TV advertising spending over the near future. One reason is that advertising makes up 20% of time spent on traditional TV but just 3% on streaming platforms.
However, as viewership declines, advertisers on live TV say that they are most likely to allocate their ad spend to streaming services. By year-end 2027, ad spend on streaming platforms is projected to jump to $40.9 billion, a 63% increase from 2023.
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[Markets]
Number Of Attacks On US Bases In Iraq & Syria Pushes Past 80
Number Of Attacks On US Bases In Iraq & Syria Pushes Past 80
US military bases in the Middle East reportedly came under Fresh attack again on Friday, pushing the total number of attacks since mid-October past 80 incidents.
"There were four additional attacks on U.S. forces in Iraq and Syria since yesterday, according to a DOD official. Now 82 overall since Oct. 17," Politico's Pentagon correspondent Lara Seligman wrote. Some media sources have put the figure as high as 85.
While the fresh attack hasn't been widely reported in Western media, Iran's Mehr News Agency is among those regional sources claiming that some four American bases in Syria were hit.
And one regional monitor OSINTdefender said, "The Attacks on U.S. Forces in the Middle East today has been Never-ending, with at least 10 Rocket and Drones Attacks reported against 6 different Bases in both Iraq and Syria in the last 12 Hours."
In a Thursday briefing Pentagon spokesperson Sabrina Sing had said this trend of attacks had lessened since the end of the weeklong Israel-Hamas truce, and that the US is hoping things stay calm in the region.
"In terms of the attacks on our forces, I think it's important to remember that it's good that we have not seen attacks on our forces in the last 24 hours," Singh said. "We would like to see that continue."
The Biden administration has long asserted that it "won't hesitate" to defend American forces in the region; however, recent reporting in Politico has suggested the US is intentionally refraining from a response to Iran-backed Houthi aggression in the Red Sea, on fears of sparking a broader war.
This week for the first time since Oct.7, the US Embassy in Baghdad came under multiple missile salvos. Damage was reported but no injuries.
Likely, attacks will continue to intensify especially in Syria - given that both Syrian national and Iranian forces want to squeeze American forces out of the illegal occupation of the country's oil and gas regions. There have been dozens of US troop injuries, with all of them reported as minor.
Washington has been intent on strangling Damascus and the Syrian population after Assad emerged victorious from the decade-long proxy war there. Turkey also wants to see the US presence end, given the Pentagon's support to the Kurds.
Just this week the Senate voted down a resolution that which have required a quick and full US troop drawdown from Syria, on the basis that there was never explicit Congressional authorization for the occupation in the first place.
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[Markets]
"Escape Liberal Hell": Oregon, Washington Republicans Flee PNW, Join California Conservatives In Idaho
"Escape Liberal Hell": Oregon, Washington Republicans Flee PNW, Join California Conservatives In Idaho
America is witnessing a seismic shift in its demographic landscape. Recent data from Idaho reveals an unprecedented trend: people are migrating not just for jobs, schools, or lifestyle, but for political alignment. The movement is reshaping the country, according to the Seattle Times' Danny Westneat.
The call to "Escape liberal hell," as echoed by a Boise, Idaho real estate agent, is not just a catchy sales pitch but a sign of the times. Idaho's voter database sheds light on this great political migration. Approximately 119,000 voters have moved to Idaho in recent years, with a staggering 65% registering as Republicans—a figure that overshadows the state's already GOP-leaning demographic of 58%.
And it's not just a trickle of discontented conservatives - it's a flood. The data also suggests that the narrative of liberals, untethered by remote work, turning red states purple, has been upended. Instead, a "Republican fever dream" (as the Idaho Capital Sun called it) is materializing.
According to the data, among all Idaho voters who moved here from out of state:
- 77,136, or 65% are registered Republicans.
- 24,906, or 21% are unaffiliated.
- 14,711, or 12% are registered Democrats.
- 1,949, or 2% are a member of a third party, such as the Constitution Party or Libertarian Party.
This political realignment has become known as the "big sort," where America's national stratification not just by vocation or socioeconomic status, but by political allegiance. As Westneat writes, Idaho's dream of becoming a fortress against liberalism—a so-called "American redoubt"—is materializing.
For states like Washington, Oregon, and California, this exodus of Republican voters is more than a demographic shift—it's a political hemorrhage. According to the report, 75% of Californian expats in Idaho are registering as Republicans. This movement intensifies the political polarization, with red states becoming redder and blue states bluer.
"Are you sick of living in a Blue State with high taxes, radical policies, and high crime?" reads an ad from one real estate company, Conservative Move (Motto: "Moving Families Right."). "Find a new home in a state and community that reflects your values."
Parallel economy?
This 'big sort' has birthed a cottage industry catering to political migration, particularly on the right. Companies like Conservative Move and GOP Agent aren't just offering real estate services; they're selling a lifestyle that aligns with political ideologies. It's a trend that's not slowing down, as evidenced by the over 150 attendees at a Seattle info session about moving to red states.
"The interest in moving to red states is not slowing down," according to Conservative Move's Facebook page.
As The Economist suggested in June, America might soon see parallel economies where partisanship dictates not just where people live, but what products they consume and services they use, like Patriot Mobile's Christian conservative wireless network.
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[Markets]
South American Gangs Target Dozens Of Mansions In Detroit
South American Gangs Target Dozens Of Mansions In Detroit
Violent crime is quickly spreading to suburbia. A new report shows gangs from South America have targeted mansions in wealthy neighborhoods across the Detroit metro area. This comes as the Biden administration's disastrous open border policies have flooded the country with millions of illegal migrants, as well as progressive cities fail to enforce 'common sense' law and order.
WXYZ Detroit reported at least 30 to 40 homes in upscale neighborhoods across Detroit have been targeted by "highly functional and well-trained" gangs from South America this fall.
Thieves are using high-tech "jammers" to disable WiFi home security systems. They're primarily after cash, jewelry, and expensive handbags.
Last week, Oakland County Sheriff Michael Bouchard said thieves are part of "transnational gangs" operating across the country and are targeting multi-million dollar homes.
In recent months, we have shared an emerging theme of thieves across the country targeting wealthy households:
This disturbing trend comes as illegal migrant encounters by the Customs and Border Protection on the southern border hit a record high. President Biden's disastrous open southern border has flooded the country with 9 million illegals since he took office. Also, Democrat lawmakers, some of whom are Soros-backed, fail to enforce common sense law and order, transforming some metros into lawless, crime-ridden hellholes.
Democrats are turning this nation into a third-world-like state - and now criminals, emboldened by failed progressive policies, have the rich in their crosshairs in suburbia.
The only advice for law-abiding Americans who want to defend their families and homes in suburbia, where the average police could be upwards of ten minutes or more, is to get proper firearms training from a professional.
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[Markets]
He Who Must Not Be Named: The Hunter Biden Indictment is Itself a Model of Evasion
He Who Must Not Be Named: The Hunter Biden Indictment is Itself a Model of Evasion
Authored by Jonathan Turley,
Below is my column in the New York Post on the second indictment of Hunter Biden. The tax evasion charges were brought in a type of Voldemort indictment, skillfully detailing millions acquired from influence peddling without mentioning “he who must not be named.” Indeed, it says nothing of how or why millions were sent to Hunter.
Here is the column:
The 56-page indictment of Hunter Biden for tax evasion makes for racy reading, with the special counsel describing a four-year criminal pattern directed at maintaining Biden’s “extravagant lifestyle.”
That lifestyle included massive expenses for strippers, sex clubs, fast cars and other distractions.
The steps taken by Hunter to evade taxes are impressive, but not nearly as impressive as the efforts of the Justice Department to evade any direct implications for his father, President Biden.
In that sense, the indictment itself is a marvel of evasion.
There are three glaring omissions in the indictment that tend to shield critical payments and conduct that implicate the president.
The Burisma-Ukrainian money
First, the special counsel only indicts tax evasion that occurred in recent years.
That’s because the long “investigation” into Hunter inexplicably allowed the statute of limitations to expire on the most controversial payments starting around 2014 from Ukraine gas company Burisma.
Recent testimony from IRS whistleblowers suggests that wasn’t an accident. Investigators were stonewalled, they claimed, and the Justice Department was previously moving to reject any charges against Hunter Biden.
Exploring those earlier Ukrainian payments opens up questions about Hunter’s influence peddling and would have highlighted the conflict in his father’s extraordinary move to force the Ukrainians to fire a prosecutor investigating Burisma by holding back a billion dollars in aid for the country.
There is still no explanation why special counsel David Weiss would allow the statute of limitations to run out.
But this recent indictment keeps the focus squarely on taxes not paid, not how the money was “earned” in the first place.
Hunter the foreign agent
Also missing in the indictment is any charge against Hunter Biden as an unregistered foreign agent.
Recently, the Justice Department added a charge to the indictment of Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ) that he ran afoul of FARA, the Foreign Agents Registration Act. FARA also was used to go after Donald Trump associates such as Paul Manafort.
The problem with charging Hunter with FARA is obvious.
It opens up questions about the millions of dollars going to the Biden family from foreign sources, a topic that Attorney General Merrick Garland has spent years avoiding.
In the second indictment, Weiss spends more time detailing the salacious use of this money rather than how and why it was given to the Bidens.
He just matter-of-factly describes millions flowing through these accounts from China, Romania, Ukraine, Russia and other countries.
The unindicted co-conspirator
By focusing on tax evasion alone, Weiss again avoids any direct reference to the focus of the influence-peddling used to raise these millions of dollars.
Even without mentioning the president, the implications of the indictment are devastating for the narrative and denials of Joe Biden.
The president has continued to maintain that he had no knowledge or interaction with these dealings. Those statements are clearly and knowingly false.
The president also maintained that his son has “never done anything wrong” and never accepted any money from China.
That is also untrue, according to the Justice Department and Hunter himself.
Yet Weiss continues to avoid any need to address the person who was the selling point of the influence peddling.
It was the same person who repeatedly called in to dinners and meetings, repeatedly attended events, and held meetings and photo shots for these clients.
Instead, Weiss indicts the failure to pay taxes on the proceeds of these dealings without addressing that underlying corruption.
It is akin to arresting a bank robber for speeding away from the crime scene without mentioning the reason for his flight.
In a scandal with dozens of references to the presidents and millions sent for influence and access, it took a steady hand for Weiss to avoid ever touching on President Biden’s role.
This was a truly Homeric feat — unseen since the Greek hero Odysseus won a competition by shooting an arrow through the tiny hole in a dozen ax heads.
It takes perfect aim not to avoid any contact. It is itself the very model of evasion.
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[Markets]
Disney's 'Democratic Political Operative' Bob Iger Fully Exposed After Musk Spat: Thacker
Disney's 'Democratic Political Operative' Bob Iger Fully Exposed After Musk Spat: Thacker
Authored by Paul Thacker via The DisInformation Chronicle (subscribe here)
Editors at the New York Post commissioned me to write a piece last weekend explaining how the Democratic Party has been targeting Elon Musk for buying Twitter and taking away their ability to censor critics and label them “disinformation.” The issue came to a head after Musk vented during an interview when asked about Disney and other companies pulling advertising over alleged antisemitism on his platform.
“If someone is going to try and blackmail me with advertising? Blackmail me with money? Go fuck yourself," Elon Musk said. Musk repeated the advice with a wave of his hand toward Disney’s Bob Iger, a Musk critic and Biden administration donor and functionary.
“Go. Fuck. Yourself. Is that clear? Hey, Bob, if you’re in the audience.”
Within hours of the intervew, dozens of parodies began appearing on X, including this one. But if you read about the exchange in any media outlet, you would think Musk was coming unhinged, attacking advertisers who support his own company.
This is far from reality. Democratic operatives including Disney’s Bob Iger have been harassing Musk since he took over Twitter and released company documents showing the government and Democratic Party aligned organizations were censoring Americans. You can read some of my reporting on these Twitter Files here, here, here, here, and here.
After the New York Post published my essay, I found that Musk had predicted a dirty tricks campaign over a year and a half ago.
The tactics being used against Musk are quite simple to understand if you know the various figures involved, their backgrounds, and finances. First, Democratic Party attack groups like the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) and Media Matters for America gin up fake studies that accuse Musk of allowing hate, antisemitism, racism (whatever label they feel is effective) to flourish on social media. Second, Biden campaign donors like Disney’s Bob Iger express panic and flee X, complaining that they can’t be associated with hate.
The media won’t report on this, but it’s a basic squeeze play once you know the characters involved.
In recent months, Musk has sued both the Center for Countering Digital Hate and Media Matters for America for making false allegations of hate at X that have driven away advertisers. Both groups claim to be nonpartisan but actually work to attack opponents of Democratic Party policies.
If you read any story in the press about the CCDH, you would think they’re some lefty nonprofit laboring away to keep the world safe from online hate. A couple headlines just to give you a flavor for this.
But as I documented in an investigation for Tablet, political operatives with the conservative wing of the British Labour Party founded the Center for Countering Digital Hate (CCDH) in 2018 to attack people on the Left and Right. The group’s leader, Imran Ahmed, now asserts that he is “at the forefront of reporting on the hate proliferating on X/Twitter since Musk completed his takeover in late October 2022.”
In reality, Ahmed is also a former Labour Party political operative who ran CCDH and another Labour Party front group to attack the left wing of his own party with vague accusation of hate. While in the UK, Ahmed’s groups helped to run Jeremy Corbyn out of Labour Party leadership and tanked the lefty news site Canary, after starting a boycott of their advertisers.
Former Canary editor Kerry-Anne Mendoza described Ahmed’s war against her leftist news site as a scorched earth campaign that destroyed their advertising revenue and forced mass layoffs. “They accuse you of hate,” she told me. “Our regulator said the opposite, but that was irrelevant.”
Targeting advertisers seems very similar to Ahmed’s current tactics against Musk, no?
Since Ahmed moved the group to Washington, DC, in 2021 one of CCDH’s main targets, aside from X and Elon Musk, has been presidential candidate Robert Kennedy Jr., who leads Biden among young voters, and is suing the administration over censorship. This should not surprise anyone as CCDH’s chairman is Simon Clark, a former senior fellow at the Center for American Progress (CAP), a think tank founded by John Podesta, who chaired Hillary Clinton’s 2016 campaign against Donald Trump.
Ahmed does not disclose CCDH’s funding, but I found that 75% of it comes from dark money sources. Some of this money may be coming out of Hollywood—Bob Iger’s home base. One of the board members on CCDH’s tax records is talent agent Aleen Keshishian, who reps actor Mark Ruffalo, an Ahmed ally in his crusade against Musk.
After I tweeted a series of Twitter Files on Imran Ahmed’s work with the old Twitter to censor people, Musk responded, “Anyone know who is supporting this rat?” A month later, Musk sued CCDH for “faulty reports” that were driving away advertisers. “CCDH’s scare campaign to global advertisers … is an attempt to stifle freedom of speech on the X platform.”
Media Matters has a similar political history, but you won’t find many media outlets explaining this to readers. Instead, reporters often ignore Media Matters’ Democratic Party ties or choose to describe them as a “watchdog.”
When CNN wrote a dismissive article on Musk’s lawsuit, they even described one of Media Mattes’ employees as a “senior investigative reporter.” One of the media experts CNN quoted to downplay the lawsuit is Joan Donovan, one of the many academic “misinformation researchers” who have popped up in recent years to argue in favor of social media censorship.
Again, reality is rather different from what you might read.
The New York Times reported in 2004 that Democratic political operative David Brock created the group in 2004 with help from the Center for American Progress. The paper later noted that Media Matters served as part of Hillary Clinton’s 2016 election “outrage machine.”
After Clinton’s loss, Brock freaked and released a 49-page memo marked “private and confidential” that explained how Media Matters was being retooled to move into the digital space and attack “misinformation.”
But when Biden beat Trump, the Media Matters political machine pivoted to harangue Musk and Twitter, criticizing him, in one example, for helping Stanford Professor Jay Bhattacharya look into the Twitter Files to see why he had been placed on a “blacklist.”
After I published Twitter Files showing that the company had provided privileged access to lefty reporter Taylor Lorenz, who had gotten Dr. Bhattacharya banned, Media Matters jumped to downplay the documents.
Media Matters has also harangued Musk for retweeting news about immigration problems at the southern border, for example. But as border issues have overwhelmed the Biden administration, Media Matters has ceased raising this election issue as a preferred attack.
After Media Matters published a flimsy report a few weeks back that alleged Nazi content ran on X alongside advertisements from major corporations—claims which caused multiple advertisers to freeze spending—Musk immediately sued the group. “As the most prominent online platform dedicated to hosting free speech, X and its predecessor Twitter have long been the target of Media Matters,” reads the lawsuit.
In case you think Disney’s Bob Iger is absolved of political guilt, take a gander at his partisan bona fides.
In the final months of the 2020 election, CNBC reported that Iger was one of Biden’s largest donors, giving $250K to his campaign. Even before Biden had been sworn in as President, Iger then began angling for a position in his administration—possibly as ambassador to China.
This last summer Iger claimed that he did not want to get involved in “culture wars” before hiring a loyal Biden aide to run Disney’s crisis communications and deal with … culture wars.
Iger remains a critical donor for Biden’s reelection, according to New York Magazine.
Disney now faces renewed calls for a boycott by Musk’s legion of online supporters. But you don’t need to love, hate, or be indifferent about the guy to be concerned. I am, however, eternally grateful that Musk gave me and other reporters access to Twitter’s internal company documents, something no other CEO has ever done in the history of our democracy.
And what worries me as I watch this unfold: if a political party—either Democrat or Republican—can target the richest, most powerful man in the country because he doesn’t support all their policies, who might be next? Isn’t that what’s important?
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[Markets]
Trump Is Absolutely Smoking Biden In Yet Another Major Poll
Trump Is Absolutely Smoking Biden In Yet Another Major Poll
President Biden is in serious trouble, with his political standing now at the weakest point of his presidency, according to a new poll from the Wall Street Journal.
The poll shows Biden trailing behind former President Donald Trump in a hypothetical 2024 showdown by 4 percentage points, a gap that widens with the inclusion of third-party candidates, signifying a potential upheaval in the traditional two-party dynamics.
Dislike of Biden has become widespread - with just 23% of voters feeling they've been positively impacted by Biden's policies, starkly contrasting with the nostalgic economic reminiscence of the Trump era. The term "Bidenomics," once a banner of hope, now flounders with less than 30% approval, reflecting widespread disillusionment. No wonder the White House has stopped using the term.
The Democrat president faces serious perception issues.
Voters say Trump is the better bet than Biden to secure the border (by 30 percentage points), tame inflation (by 21 points) and build the economy (by 17 points). Biden leads on who can best deal with abortion policy, and voters say that he more than Trump respects democracy. But the president is viewed as no better than Trump on cutting medication costs—a key Democratic initiative. -WSJ
"If this race is about policy and performance, then Donald Trump has a significant advantage," said Republican pollster Tony Fabrizio, who conducted the Journal survey with Democrat Michael Bocian. "If this race is about temperament and character, things like that, then Biden has an advantage."
"Things were thriving under Trump. This country is a business and it needs to be run by a businessman," said 53-year-old Aimee Kozlowski of Goffestown, NH, a Republican who plans to vote for Trump, and says that her competitive gymnastics facility has been hurt by inflation.
The poll also uncovers a dissonance between public economic pessimism and recent positive economic indicators, such as a robust GDP and low unemployment.
The president has been adjusting his messages on the economy to put more focus on taming inflation rather than on job creation. Creating high-paying jobs was a central goal of Democratic-backed legislation that funded new infrastructure and manufacturing, but voters see jobs as less of a concern than high prices. The White House recently unveiled a new supply-chain council aimed in part at stemming inflation, and Biden recently called on companies to “stop the price-gouging.”
The president and his campaign have also amplified their focus on Trump’s most contentious comments, such as his description of opponents as “vermin” and his statement last week that he would be a dictator on “Day 1”—specifically to close the border and open more land for oil drilling—both of which suggest an authoritarian approach to a potential second Trump term. Trump’s allies say Democrats are trying to distract from economic issues and problems at the southern border. -WSJ
Of course, the Journal also found a never-Trump independent voter, Michelle Bannon, who says the former president is "not qualified at all," adding "I don’t know that Biden can go another four years, but I’ll cross my fingers and vote for him. He’s the lesser of two evils."
From 10,000 feet, Trump is smoking Biden in most polls in general.
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[Markets]
"They Look Like America": Clip Of Kevin McCarthy Fluffing Democrats Goes Viral
"They Look Like America": Clip Of Kevin McCarthy Fluffing Democrats Goes Viral
If political windsock Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) wants to rehabilitate his image as a snake in the grass, he's got his work cut out for him.
A clip of an Oct. 28 address given at Oxford University in the UK has gone viral (oddly, or not, within a day of the former speaker's endorsement of Donald Trump), in which the former speaker sings the praises of the Democratic party, while slamming Republicans just three weeks after his ouster as House Speaker.
"When you look at the Democrats, they actually look like America. When I look at my party, we look like the most restrictive country club in America," McCarthy said to laughter and applause.
Watch:
As The Blaze's Auron MacIntyre notes: "McCarthy is not some weird outlier, he is not a "RINO", he held THE key leadership position in the party until a few weeks ago and was defended by "serious-minded people who wanted to get things done,"" adding "This is the Republican Party."
The clip resurfaced within a day or so of McCarthy announcing his support for Trump.
"I will support the president. I will support President Trump," McCarthy told CBS Sunday Morning in a preview of the interview released Friday, adding that he would gladly accept a position on Trump's cabinet if one were offered.
"In the right position. Look, if I’m the best person for the job, yes," McCarthy said. "I worked with President Trump on a lot of policies. We worked together to win the majority, but we also have a relationship where we’re very honest with one another."
The time to grow a political spine has long passed, Kevin.
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[Markets]
Financial Crime: AI has supercharged online scams: With the holidays coming, here’s what to look out for
The rapid development of artificial intelligence has allowed online fraudsters to fine-tune their scams and to more effectively unleash them broadly, hoping to find someone who will take the bait.
Published:12/9/2023 1:54:17 PM
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[Markets]
US Joins Over 60 Other Nations To Pledge Emissions Reduction From Air Conditioners And Refrigerators
US Joins Over 60 Other Nations To Pledge Emissions Reduction From Air Conditioners And Refrigerators
Authored by Naveen Athrappully via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
U.S. climate envoy John Kerry made a pledge with over 60 other nations to slash emissions from refrigerators and air conditioners in a bid to tackle climate change.
 John Kerry, U.S. special presidential envoy for climate, speaks during the Energy Session at Al Waha Theater during day two of the high-level segment of the UNFCCC COP28 Climate Conference at Expo City Dubai in Dubai, United Arab Emirates, on Dec. 2, 2023. (Stuart Wilson/COP28 via Getty Images)
On Tuesday, 63 nations, including the United States, joined a pledge to cut down cooling-related emissions at the COP28 United Nations climate summit in Dubai, United Arab Emirates. The Global Cooling Pledge requires countries to reduce such emissions by at least 68 percent by 2050 compared to 2022 levels. The focus of cooling-related emissions would be on appliances like air conditioners and refrigerators. The pledge also proposes setting up minimum energy performance standards for appliances by 2030.
“We want to lay out a pathway to reduce cooling-related emissions across all sectors but increase access to sustainable cooling,” said Mr. Kerry, who joined representatives from other countries in the pledge, Reuters reported.
Rep. Jeff Van Drew (R-N.J.) criticized the pledge in a Dec. 6 X post: “John Kerry lost his run for president & has been trying to assert his revenge on everyday Americans ever since. If he gets his way, our cars, our appliances, and food will be gone. All from a man who flies around on his wife's private jet.”
Mr. Kerry’s pledge comes as the Biden administration has proposed rules that could harm to the home appliance market. In July, the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) issued a rule to slash the use of hydrofluorocarbons (HFCs) by 40 percent by 2028, calling the chemical a “climate super-pollutant.”
HFCs are used as refrigerants in appliances like air conditioners, heat pumps, and refrigerators. Since January last year, the import and production of HFCs require special allowances. During this time, the costs of replacing refrigerants have spiked.
In an August 2022 analysis, Ben Lieberman, a senior fellow at the Competitive Enterprise Institute, noted, “Service technicians say that replacing refrigerant lost from a leak now costs upwards of $800, about double what it did a year ago.”
“Moreover, EPA’s HFC quotas tighten in the years ahead, so the ratchet will keep turning, surely causing homeowners’ bills to increase further still.”
Earlier in March, the Department of Energy proposed rules under which refrigerators would be subject to a stricter set of energy efficiency standards. The rule comes into effect in 2027.
Cooling Concerns
At present, cooling equipment accounts for 20 percent of total electricity consumption. The UN estimates this to more than double by 2050. Emissions from such cooling is projected to account for over 10 percent of global emissions by mid-century.
According to the UN, as temperatures rise, demand for cooling equipment is also expected to increase. By 2050, installed cooling capacity is estimated to triple due to rising temperatures, increasing incomes, and a growing population.
“The cooling sector must grow to protect everyone from rising temperatures, maintain food quality and safety, keep vaccines stable and economies productive,” said Inger Andersen, Executive Director of United National Environment Programme.
“But this growth must not come at the cost of the energy transition and more intense climate impacts. Countries and the cooling sector must act now to ensure low-carbon cooling growth.”
One of the proposed ways to cut down cooling emissions is through the use of passive cooling measures like insulation, ventilation, natural shading, and reflective surfaces. The UN estimates that passive cooling could curb the growth in demand for cooling capacity in 2050 by 24 percent.
“Imagine a slum community, an informal settlement, the housing made of corrugated iron, and on the side an air conditioner … The aspiration of everyone as temperatures rise and incomes rise is that their wealth is measured by their cooling,” Freetown mayor Yvonne Aki-Sawyerr of Sierra Leone said during a COP28 news conference, per Reuters.
Coal Pledge
Mr. Kerry’s pledge follows another climate commitment he made last week that the United States would not construct any new coal-fired power plants and would get rid of existing ones entirely.
“To meet our goal of 100 percent carbon pollution-free electricity by 2035, we need to phase out unabated coal,” he said in a statement at the Dubai climate summit.
“We will be working to accelerate unabated coal phase-out across the world, building stronger economies and more resilient communities. The first step is to stop making the problem worse: stop building new unabated coal power plants.”
According to data from the Department of Energy, 19.7 percent of electricity generation in the United States last year came from coal.
In 2022, coal-fired plants accounted for 36 percent of global electricity, more than half of which came from China, which is building new coal plants at a rapid pace, undeterred by various climate pledges and goals that the country's own leadership has paid lip service to.
According to a February report by the Global Energy Monitor and the Centre for Research on Energy and Clean Air, coal power construction starts, new project announcements, and plant permissions “accelerated dramatically” in China in 2022—with two new coal power plants being permitted per week.
“50 GW of coal power capacity started construction in China in 2022, a more than 50 percent increase from 2021. Many of these projects had their permits fast-tracked and moved to construction in a matter of months,” the report said.
“A total of 106 GW of new coal power projects, the equivalent of two large coal power plants per week, were permitted. The amount of capacity permitted more than quadrupled from 23 GW in 2021.”
Tom Ozimek and Reuters contributed to this report.
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[Markets]
New Rumble Channel Established For Release Of Jan. 6 Security Video By Congress
New Rumble Channel Established For Release Of Jan. 6 Security Video By Congress
Authored by Joseph M. Hanneman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
The GOP-controlled Committee on House Administration’s Subcommittee on Oversight has established a Rumble channel and released the second batch of security video from Jan. 6 at the U.S. Capitol.
 New U.S. Capitol Police Jan. 6 security video released by House Republicans on a new Rumble channel. (CHA Subcommittee on Oversight/Screenshot via The Epoch Times)
The first few videos were posted to the Rumble channel on Dec. 5. By the next day, the collection grew to 135 clips—each about 10 minutes long. The channel had nearly 700 followers on Dec. 7.
The committee released the first batch of 90 CCTV clips on Nov. 17 on its House of Representatives website. The two websites now contain nearly 40 hours of the more than 40,000 hours of video from Jan. 6 held by Capitol Police.
"As promised, we're releasing more U.S. Capitol Police CCTV video footage from January 6th to ensure full transparency and accountability," said U.S. Rep. Barry Loudermilk (R-Ga.), chairman of the Subcommittee on Oversight. "Every American may access this and future footage on our new Rumble video page."
The new batch of videos all come from Camera 0908, housed high on the west dome of the Capitol. The aerial footage starts just after midnight and ends about 11:55 p.m. on Jan. 6.
The video includes the flow of protesters from the Ellipse during and after former President Donald Trump’s speech, the breach of the first police line, and the violence on several levels of the west front of the Capitol.
Capitol Police have a network of more than 1,700 security cameras inside the Capitol Building and across Capitol grounds. The agency has consistently opposed (pdf) public release of the CCTV footage.
When he announced the release of up to 44,000 hours of Jan. 6 video, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) pledged to regularly update the website with “thousands of hours of footage.”
“To restore America’s trust and faith in their government, we must have transparency,” Mr. Johnson posted on X. “This is another step towards keeping the promises I made when I was elected to be your speaker.”
Enthusiasm about the video rollout was tempered by the announcement that the subcommittee would blur any identifiable faces.
"As you know, we have to blur some of the faces of persons who participated in the events of that day because we don't want them to be retaliated against and to be charged by the DOJ,” Mr. Johnson said during a press conference on Dec. 5.
That decision drew fire from both sides of the aisle and media across the political spectrum.
Former Rep. Lynn Cheney (R-Wyo.), onetime ranking member of the now-defunct Jan. 6 Select Committee, blasted the idea of blurring the video.
“I think that we’re experiencing a situation where Speaker Johnson is somehow attempting to suggest that there is something in these tapes that would change the facts of what happened,” Ms. Cheney told CNN on Dec. 5.
Defendants in Jan. 6 criminal cases have criticized both the rollout of video and the blurring of faces.
“Johnson is flat-out lying about concerns people might be charged if the footage isn't blurred,” defendant Will Pope, who writes as Free State Will on X, said on Dec. 5. “Congress already gave all the un-blurred video to the DOJ! Motion to vacate this Pinocchio.”
Conservative social media influencer “Catturd” agreed in a post to his 2.1 million followers on X.
“This is 100% to blur out all the feds,” wrote Catturd, whose real name is Phillip Buchanan. “Like the FBI doesn’t have copies of these. What a ridiculous lie.”
A senior congressional aide defended the blurring in a statement to the Epoch Times.
"Unfortunately, there are groups whose sole purpose is to ruin the lives of anyone who was at the Capitol on January 6, whether they have been charged with a crime or not," the aide said. "To protect innocent individuals from groups like this, it makes sense to blur small portions of the footage where faces are identifiable as best as possible before posting footage online. And any American can set up an appointment to view the unedited, unaltered footage at the Subcommittee offices.”
The Times-Picayune newspaper of New Orleans published an editorial cartoon by Pulitzer Prize-winning Walt Handelsman rapping its home-state representative.
The three-panel cartoon, also posted on X, shows Mr. Johnson at a dais speaking about the facts and truth of Jan. 6. In the final frame, Mr. Johnson says he wants to be "crystal clear," while his image is badly blurred.
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[Markets]
Border Patrol Agents Blame Policy Reversals For Historic Surge In Illegal Crossings
Border Patrol Agents Blame Policy Reversals For Historic Surge In Illegal Crossings
Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
Nine Customs and Border Patrol agents told Congressional investigators that the lack of consequences for crossing the U.S. border illegally is to blame for the historic surge of illegal immigrants pouring into the United States, according to transcript excerpts obtained by The Epoch Times.
 U.S. Customs and Border Patrol agents detain a camouflaged family from Mexico after they had illegally crossed the U.S.-Mexico border near Naco, Ariz, on Nov. 4, 2022. (John Moore/Getty Images)
Investigators on the House Homeland Security and Oversight Committees conducted the interviews earlier this year, over the course of five months. The Customs and Border Patrol (CBP) interviewees included nine supervisory and line agents assigned to duty at key border stations from California to Texas.
While both Democrat and Republican staffers took part in the questioning, the excerpts provided to The Epoch Times were selected by the Republicans. The Epoch Times has requested the full transcripts of the interviews. Committee Democrats did not respond to a request for comment.
"We wanted to interview these agents due to their deep expertise as Border Patrol agents and the experience their senior positions afforded them to speak about operations in their sectors," a Republican committee spokesman told The Epoch Times.
The agents were not questioned under oath and appeared voluntarily after being reminded that it is illegal to provide false information to Congress.
At the heart of the issues described in the interviews is President Joe Biden's reversal of immigration policies instituted by his predecessor, President Donald Trump. Republicans credit President Trump's policies for reducing the flow of illegal immigrants.
One of the Trump policies was a requirement for people seeking to enter the United States to remain in Mexico, pending resolution of their cases. Another policy required strictly enforcing anti-drug and other criminal statutes against illegal immigrants. The Trump administration also began, and made significant progress on, building a border wall, and induced Mexico to use its law enforcement and military resources to block migrant caravans at that country's southern border with Belize and Guatemala.
 Migrants wait in the Rio Grande for an opening in the razor wire barrier, to cross into the United States, in Eagle Pass, Texas, on Sept. 25, 2023. (Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images)
In a July 26 interview, Tucson Sector Patrol Chief John Modlin told investigators that after Mr. Biden took office, his Arizona border station experienced an unprecedented increase in illegal immigrants during the hottest months of the year, a time when the flow of such crossings would normally be at its lowest levels.
"[In] Tucson, because of the incredible amount of heat out there, the summer months tend to be very low. What’s happening now is unheard of, you know. I looked at 10 years of data to what the summer months should be, and, you know, so where we’re at now in July, you know, should be about—we should have about 17,000 apprehensions in July, you know, given 10 years of data aggregated. Instead, we’re at 26,000. So this time of year, the most dangerous time of year, is seeing one of the most significant flows that we’ve seen," Mr. Modlin said, according to the transcript.
When asked, "Is it frustrating for you as the leader of the Tucson Sector when the encounters have kept increasing over a lengthy period of time?" Mr. Modlin replied by describing staggering increases in the number of illegal immigrants coming into the United States at his station.
"Yes, absolutely. I think, when I look at 2018, 2019, and 2020, those years were about 60,000 people a year, more or less, within a thousand or two in either direction. And then 2021 happened ... and it jumped to 190,000. So it was three times the previous year, which was absolutely—for us—shocking in Tucson," he said.
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But then came 2022, and even more illegal immigrants came through his station, Mr. Modlin explained.
"And then, thinking it couldn’t go higher, it then went to 250,000 last year, and that did not include the 55,000 that we took from Yuma to help them out and the 170,000 "got-a-ways" recorded last year in that as well. And this year we’re on pace to probably hit 300,000. So if that’s the case, then we’ll be five times what we did just in 2020. So that is significant," he continued.
Unprecedented Border Crossing Numbers
But the pre-COVID surges pale by comparison, he said, noting that temporary increases in border crossings were "certainly not unprecedented" but "the volume that we’re seeing recently, in my opinion, in my career when I’ve seen is what I would consider unprecedented."
Agents interviewed all but universally agreed that the lack of negative consequences for illegally entering the United States is a major—if not the major—factor causing the swelling flood of crossings today.
Asked why returning illegal crossers to the Mexican side of the border or to their country of origin is important, Chief Patrol Agent Aaron Heitke of the San Diego Sector said in a May 9 interview that doing so is essential to stopping the current torrent.
"There needs to be a consequence to the illegal activity, otherwise it won’t stop. And when you look at a population that’s coming, the only real consequence that we have is to send them back to their home country," Mr. Heitke said.
The United States doesn't have "enough detention [capacity] in our country to detain everybody. And even if there was, it would be short-term. Many of these folks come and have traveled for six months or a year to get here. A day or two in detention is not a penalty to them. They're more willing to do that. Fines, obviously, are not going to be effective when the individuals have everything they own with them," he continued.
 Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) speaks during a House Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Crisis hearing in the Rayburn House Office Building on Capitol Hill in Washington on May 19, 2021. (Susan Walsh/Pool/Getty Images)
For that reason, the San Diego Sector Chief Patrol Agent said, "The only real consequence we have is to send them back to their home country. And if somebody has traveled from wherever for an entire year and you fly them all the way back to their country, it’s a significant penalty."
Another Chief Patrol Agent, Jason Owens of the Del Rio (Texas) Sector, was asked in a May 5 interview whether "the likelihood of release into the United States after a short stay in custody would incentivize someone to try to illegally cross into the United States?" Mr. Owens replied, saying "So, what I will tell you is this: I think that if there is no consequence for an action, there’s no deterrence for a person to not commit that action."
Homeland Security Chairman Rep. Mark Green (R-Tenn.) told The Epoch Times that "these chief patrol agents’ testimonies make it clear consequences are essential to deterring illegal immigration, and when those disincentives are absent, historic numbers of people will enter our country unlawfully. That is exactly what has taken place at America’s borders for almost three years."
While President Biden is the ultimate policymaker for his administration, Mr. Green points to Department of Homeland Security (DHS) Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas as most immediately accountable for the consequences of the policies.
“Under this secretary, illegal aliens know that after crossing the border, they will likely be released into the interior of the country to await their court date. Further, even if they fail to appear for their hearing, there is little to no risk of pursuit, detention, and removal due to Secretary Mayorkas’ restrictive policies limiting DHS's ability to do its job. It should serve as no surprise to anyone that CBP has recorded more than 7.8 million encounters since February 2021, including more than 6.5 million at the Southwest border alone," Mr. Green said.
“The importance of consequences is basic common sense and a foundational aspect of law enforcement. Secretary Mayorkas either doesn’t understand this reality, or he simply does not care. Either way, he is no longer fit for the office he holds and must be swiftly and decisively held accountable for his dereliction of duty,” the Tennessee Republican added.
Impeachment
On Nov. 13, the House of Representatives referred the proposed Articles of Impeachment against Mr. Mayorkas to Mr. Green's committee. The committee spokesman told The Epoch Times that "the committee will take up those articles, and we look forward to the opportunity to educate even more Americans about how the secretary has intentionally and willfully opened America’s borders through his reckless decision-making and legally dubious actions. Congress should also take a serious look at using our power of the purse to compel Secretary Mayorkas and his lieutenants to enforce the law."
A spokesman for Mr. Mayorkas, who asked not to be named, provided a detailed response to Mr. Green, saying the "CBP is prioritizing smart border security solutions, making historic investments in technology, taking the fight to cartels and smugglers, and doing more with our regional partners than ever before."
The spokesman insisted that "individuals encountered at the border are screened and vetted, and those without a legal basis to stay are processed for removal. Consequences include a minimum five-year bar on re-entry, loss of eligibility to access lawful pathways, and prosecution for repeat offenders."
Individuals who are "provisionally released from CBP are screened and vetted, remain in immigration removal proceedings, and have strict reporting requirements," the spokesman added. "Since the end of the [COVID] public health emergency on May 12, DHS has executed a comprehensive strategy that has led to record levels of removals under Title 8 authorities of individuals encountered at the border."
The Biden administration has asked Congress to authorize hiring an additional 1,600 Asylum Officers and their support staff, as well as additional detention beds and more funding for deportation flights. The administration is also asking Congress to approve hiring 1,470 additional immigration lawyers and support staff.
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[Markets]
X CEO Says 10 Million New Users Joined 'Free Speech' Platform In December
X CEO Says 10 Million New Users Joined 'Free Speech' Platform In December
On Thursday, X CEO Linda Yaccarino revealed, "More than 10 million people have signed up for X so far this December!"
Even though Yaccarino disclosed the December sign-ups for the first week, she did not provide year-over-year or monthly averages.
In July, Elon Musk revealed X had 540 million monthly users, and more recently, he posted, "Guess we're not dead yet," while referring to X traffic data on Google that surpassed rival Instagram and Facebook.
Meanwhile, legacy corporate media has launched one disinformation campaign after another, attempting to persuade the public that Musk's X is 'dying.'
Legacy media, like CBS, ABC, NBC, and the list goes on and on, are fighting for survival and have waged war on X because they view the 'free speech' platform as an existential threat.
Allies of corporate media, including advocacy groups like Media Matters, have attempted to sabotage the social media platform by misleading companies to pull ad spending. And so far, it has worked. Apple, Disney, Comcast, Paramount Global, and IBM paused advertisements last month.
Also, last month, Musk told advertising boycotters: "...if someone wants to blackmail me with advertising, they can go f*ck themselves."
Commenting on the advertiser boycott of X, billionaire Bill Ackman said Musk "is entirely correct that he and @X are treated unfairly and inconsistently by advertisers."
Ackman pointed out that TikTok, Instagram, Facebook, and others have "enormous amounts of problematic content, antisemitic and otherwise, but the advertisers don't boycott those platforms."
The bottom line is legacy corporate media's disinformation campaign against X is not working.
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[Markets]
Next Avenue: Aging at home for LGBTQ adults requires important legal planning: Here’s a guide
Without proper planning, LGBTQ older adults can find themselves in a position where the wrong people are making healthcare decisions for them.
Published:12/9/2023 10:10:28 AM
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[Markets]
Brits May Be Forced To Take Selfie Before Watching Porn
Brits May Be Forced To Take Selfie Before Watching Porn
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,
Brits may be forced to take a selfie and upload it to an adult website before watching porn under new rules to protect children.
Ofcom could force websites to use “facial age estimation” technology to confirm users are age appropriate.
Such technology is seen as more “privacy-friendly” because it would avoid viewers having to upload personal IDs or credit card information.
However, the shame aspect of having to take a selfie in order to watch hardcore pornography is very likely not just to prevent children accessing such material, but adults too.
Porn websites assert that they delete the selfies immediately after confirmation.
Users who look under the age of 25 may have to provide further ID information to access adult websites.
Studies show that a quarter of children in the UK have seen porn by age 11, with the average age children first see it being 13.
The new rules are expected to be enforced in 2025 after a period of review.
“Pornography is too readily accessible to children online, and the new online safety laws are clear that must change,” said Dame Melanie Dawes, Ofcom’s chief executive.
“Regardless of their approach, we expect all services to offer robust protection to children from stumbling across pornography, and also to take care that privacy rights and freedoms for adults to access legal content are safeguarded,” she added.
A workaround for people who want to avoid having to take a selfie might be to check out Ai influencers, which are verging on being pornographic anyway.
* * *
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These Are The World's Most Expensive Cities
These Are The World's Most Expensive Cities
The Economist Intelligence Unit (EIU) has recently published its Worldwide Cost of Living Index for 2023.
As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, in this edition, Singapore and Zurich jointly top the ranking as the most expensive cities in the world to live in.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Singapore was already number one in 2022, alongside New York, while Zurich has risen from the sixth position it held in last year's list. Its ascent is attributed to the strength of the Swiss franc and high prices for food, household items, and leisure.
The publication also highlights the high cost of transportation and clothing in Singapore.
New York has dropped to the third place, where it ties with another Swiss city, Geneva.
Two other U.S. cities (Los Angeles and San Francisco) also rank among the top ten, along with Hong Kong, Paris, Copenhagen, and Tel Aviv.
The annual index compares prices of over 200 everyday products and services such as food, clothing, rent, or transportation in 173 cities worldwide.
The cities included in the study are compared to the base city of New York, with an index set at 100.
"The cost of living crisis is far from over, and price levels continue to be well above historical trends," said Upasana Dutt, the study's lead.
"We expect inflation to continue to slow down in 2024," the expert noted.
According to this year's index, prices increased on average by 7.4 percent year-on-year in the cities studied.
This figure is slightly lower than the 8.1 percent increase recorded in the 2022 index but significantly higher than the trend observed between 2017 and 2021.
The Economist Intelligence Unit researchers highlight how the global cost of living has continued throughout this year, despite easing energy prices and supply chain issues.
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[Markets]
French Farmers Dump Manure On Govt Buildings To Protest Climate Hysteria
French Farmers Dump Manure On Govt Buildings To Protest Climate Hysteria
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,
French farmers are dumping vast quantities of manure on government buildings to protest against excessive environmental regulations that threaten their way of life.
The farmers are protesting against excessive regulations and climate hysteria technocracy that threatens to ruin their livelihoods, as well as an EU ban on glyphosate.
Roads were also blockaded and vehicles set ablaze.
Hundreds of farmers also blocked roads near council buildings around Saint-Brieuc.
Farmers carrying signs that said “France, do you still want your farmers?” and “Without support, France is starving” sprayed manure on the offices of Brittany Regional Council in Rennes.
There have also been clashes with police.
One organization leading the protests said the demonstrations will “remain complete as long as the government does not provide French agriculture with all the means allowing it to be fully involved in the food, energy and environmental issues of the future.”
The Netherlands has been rocked by similar protests in recent years against limits on nitrogen emissions that would have led to the shut down of thousands of farms.
That played a huge role in populist Geert Wilders soaring to victory in last month’s election.
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[Markets]
Conservatives are suing law firms over diversity efforts. It’s working.
As they fend off lawsuits targeting their own programs, law firms are also creating task forces to guide clients through the challenges of DEI.
Published:12/9/2023 6:17:23 AM
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[Markets]
Help Me Retire: We have $3 million in real estate, which brings in $70,000 a year. Could I make the same income investing in stocks and bonds?
"We have about $300,000 in IRA and 401(k) and 403(b) assets."
Published:12/9/2023 6:17:22 AM
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[Markets]
Escobar: How Kiev Wanted To Expand The War To Belarus
Escobar: How Kiev Wanted To Expand The War To Belarus
Authored by Pepe Escobar,
Well, Kiev – literally – never sleeps.
This document – attached, and verified at the highest level, is a report on several recon operations on the Ukraine-Belarus border conducted four months ago.
Several Ukrainian Special Ops groups had been engaged in deep recon previous to a possible Hail Mary-style plan: launching an offensive against the territory of Belarus, thus expanding the U.S. proxy war on Russia “multilaterally”.
It’s not clear if this was a Kiev idea; a plan dictated by the NATO masters; or a mix of the two. Minsk, of course, was not exactly observing from a distance.
Now let’s get to the meat of the matter.
The document specifies “aerial reconnaissance 130 Rbpak crew MATRICE-30”, in an intel report dated July 21, 2023.
“An aerial survey of the Republic of Belarus was conducted: two Matrice – 30 ascents were made.
The flight altitude is 950 m. Electronic warfare system was not detected, communication with remote control was not lost, GPS signals were in Normal mode.
Without crossing the DKU.
During flights in the direction of KALININO-SK-42. x: 5727537; Y: 5583485 a video surveillance vehicle “Grenadier” was discovered – SK-42. x:5727404;
Y:5583417. Designed for station monitoring of approaches to the border.
Traces and signs of the passage of enemy DRGS, and the movement of enemy equipment in these directions are not detected.
No changes were detected along the DKU.
During the conducted aerial reconnaissance, no active actions related to the enemy’s offensive were detected.
The area is wooded and impassable for enemy personnel and equipment.
This section of the DKU is not in demand of additional aerial survey.”
Watch those impassable swamps
Now we switch to an intel report by the group “IRLANDETS” (“Irishman”), also dated July 21, 2023.
“Reconnaissance was carried out by means of reconnaissance and military search in the direction of the ZABOLOTYE in the area of the border strip and adjacent areas.
Copter take-off Point X:5719499; Y:5520355.
Start of the route: X: 5719667; Y:5518682.
End of Route: X: 5719641; Y:5522372.
The area along the recreation center and roads leading to the recreation center were surveyed.
No traces or signs of the passage of enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group and enemy equipment were found.
The terrain in the area of reconnaissance is impassable for enemy equipment, which is due to a natural barrier in the form of impassable swamps, dense forest stands, and a river flows along the border line in this square. However, this section is possible for the passage of personnel.
Enemy’s composition, especially sabotage and reconnaissance group.
Confirmed presence of minefields.
Accumulation of military equipment, enemy personnel near the recreation center was not observed.
Aerial intelligence conducted.
We proceed to perform tasks for their intended purpose in another area, according to the intelligence agency’s action plan groups.”
Let’s collect some berries
Now for the RG (intel group) reconnaissance report “Partizan”, also dated July 21, 2023.
“Exploration was carried out by searching and observing, interviewing the local population in the direction of the PEREBRODY district (X:5733040; Y:5499111) – ZHADEN (X:5732068; Y: 5488281) – BUDIMLYA (X:5726038; Y:5498176) in the area of the border strip and adjacent areas.
Areas along the recreation center were examined, engineering and sapper barriers, forest and field roads leading to the recreation center were checked: presence of anti-tank ditches, rubble and obstacles from trees, minefields.
No traces or signs of the passage of enemy sabotage and reconnaissance group and enemy equipment were found. The area of exploration is conditionally passable for vehicles and personnel, which is due to a natural barrier, namely: reservoirs, swampy areas, engineering barriers.
Confirmed presence of minefields(SK – 42: 1)X:5734692; Y;5495350; 2) X:5734724;
Y:5495106; 3)X:5734899; Y:5494965; 4)X:5735543; Y:5497866; 5) X:5737721; Y:5501118).
When conducting reconnaissance, optical means were used: binoculars.
The situation along the DKU lines is calm. No sounds of movement or movement of enemy equipment were recorded.
Due to the berry season, the local population massively collects berries in border forests, moving to the sites by quad bikes, road transport and scooters. So, during the period of conducting reconnaissance, these vehicles and collectors were recorded up to and including the borderline.
We proceed to perform tasks according to the Action Plan of the Partizan intel group.”
There you go. This was the situation four months ago.
Much has happened since: the massive drying up of funds and weapons to Kiev; the war limelight stolen by Israel; and the Zelensky-Zaluzhny dogfight.
Still, there are no guarantees that plans to set fire to Belarus have been permanently shelved.
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[Markets]
Judge Grants Texas Woman With Abnormal Fetus An Exception To Abortion Law
Judge Grants Texas Woman With Abnormal Fetus An Exception To Abortion Law
In an exception to the state's restrictive abortion law, a Texas judge on Thursday granted permission for a woman to abort the abnormal fetus she has been carrying for 20 weeks.
Kate Cox's unborn baby has been diagnosed with trisomy 18, a chromosomal disorder that almost universally results in miscarriage, stillbirth, or death within a year of birth. Also called Edwards' syndrome, the condition causes a variety of abnormalities, affecting the skull, heart and other organs. Of those who make it to birth, less than 10% survive a year, and frequently have major intellectual impairments. Cox's lawyers say she's had to make four emergency room visits to address pain and discharge.
"It is not a matter of if I will have to say goodbye to my baby, but when," said Cox in a statement. "I'm trying to do what is best for my baby and myself, but the state of Texas is making us both suffer."
 In Thursday's hearing conducted via video, Kate Cox weeps as the judge grants her an exemption to Texas abortion law
Her lawyers argued that an abortion is needed to protect Cox -- who's had two prior C-sections -- from a dangerous birth that could damage her fertility. “Continuing the pregnancy puts her at high risk for severe complications threatening her life and future fertility, including uterine rupture and hysterectomy,” they said in filing the suit.
“The idea that Ms. Cox wants desperately to be pregnant, and this law might actually cause her to lose that ability, is shocking, and would be a genuine miscarriage of justice,” said Judge Maya Guerra Gamble as she ruled in Cox's favor.
In the wake of the Supreme Court ruling that overturned Roe v Wade and rightfully returned abortion governance to the individual states, many conservative state legislatures raced to impose restrictions. Texas has banned nearly all abortions, with exceptions limited to situations where it's needed to save the mother's life or safeguard her from “substantial impairment of major bodily function.”
Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton doubled down on enforcing the law, immediately firing off a letter to three Houston hospitals warning that the judge's order would "not insulate hospitals, doctors, or anyone else, from civil and criminal liability for violating Texas’ abortion laws." The hospitals are the ones where a doctor who has committed to performing the abortion for Cox has admitting privileges.
The letter also spelled out Paxton's reasoning for concluding that the restraining order was wrongly granted. His office, which may appeal the ruling to a higher court, warned the hospitals that the temporary restraining order "will expire long before the statute of limitations for violating Texas' abortion laws expires."
Doctors performing illegal abortions in Texas face sentences of up to life in prison, and the law also requires the state attorney general to pursue a civil penalty of at least $100,000. Critics say the abortion law's language regarding medical exceptions is so vague as to leave doctors fearful of suffering severe consequences even where they're confident of the medical necessity.
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[Markets]
We All Have PTSD
We All Have PTSD
Authored by Jeffrey Tucker via The Epoch Times,
Two years ago, reports started appearing that compared the effects of lockdowns with post-traumatic stress disorder. As it turns out, one of the symptoms of PTSD is forgetting what happened. It’s an evolved trait that helps the human mind cope with terrible things. Our brains are good at blocking it out. I will explain the neuroscience behind this in a bit but first an anecdote from this morning.
I was speaking to the director of a childrens’ choir and he was speaking about an age gap in his singers. The lead singer just graduated high school, and the next oldest singer is 14, which creates huge problems for the choral competence. I hesitated to do it but I finally just observed that this 3-year gap fits exactly with the lockdown period, child masking, and Zoom school.
He began to speak about what it was like to train a choir on Zoom and then conduct masked singers outdoors on winter nights. He recalled the attacks and the difficulties, and then his voice trailed off.
“Actually I’ve blocked out that whole period of life from my memory. I won’t think about it anymore. Anyway, I need to circulate a bit here but good seeing you.”
That was that.
It got me curious about the relationship between selective memory and trauma. For a long time now I’ve noticed that when this subject comes up, the response is either to quickly change the subject, which is common, or dig deeper into what seems like a bit of catharsis. Some people have so much to share, so many painful memories, so much shock and abuse to report, that once they start they cannot stop talking.
This one comment from this one choir director got me suspecting that vast numbers of people might be trying to forget it all. This is how the political debates manage to pretend like this never happened, how the major media gets away with never bringing it up, and how people like Fauci still get high speaking fees, and so on. It’s not just that they are no-good liars; too often it’s because people really do want to forget.
This is how the number one most shared trauma of our lives is fading so fast into the national and global consciousness.
It’s a well-known feature of child or spousal abuse. The memories are so terrible and grim that the human mind develops the capacity for pretending like it never happened if only so that life functioning can continue. This is fine but actually the trauma is still there and feeds other forms of pathologies like substance abuse and attachment disorders and so on. The point of therapy is to come to terms with the reality itself in the process of healing.
Some years ago, a theory developed to explain this and it was tested on mice. I’m going to quote directly:
“Two amino acids, glutamate and GABA, are the yin and yang of the brain, directing its emotional tides and controlling whether nerve cells are excited or inhibited (calm). Under normal conditions the system is balanced. But when we are hyper-aroused and vigilant, glutamate surges. Glutamate is also the primary chemical that helps store memories in our neuronal networks in a way that they are easy to remember.
“GABA, on the other hand, calms us and helps us sleep, blocking the action of the excitable glutamate. The most commonly used tranquilizing drug, benzodiazepine, activates GABA receptors in our brains. There are two kinds of GABA receptors. One kind, synaptic GABA receptors, works in tandem with glutamate receptors to balance the excitation of the brain in response to external events such as stress.
“The other population, extra-synaptic GABA receptors, are independent agents. They ignore the peppy glutamate. Instead, their job is internally focused, adjusting brain waves and mental states according to the levels of internal chemicals, such as GABA, sex hormones and micro RNAs. Extra-synaptic GABA receptors change the brain’s state to make us aroused, sleepy, alert, sedated, inebriated or even psychotic. However, Northwestern scientists discovered another critical role; these receptors also help encode memories of a fear-inducing event and then store them away, hidden from consciousness.”
To test the theory, researchers infused the hippocampus of mice with gaboxadol, a drug that stimulates extra-synaptic GABA receptors. The mice were put in a box and given an electric shock. When the mice were returned to the same box the next day, they played with no memory of what happened the last time they were there. However, when scientists put the mice back on the drug and returned them to the box, they froze, fearfully anticipating another shock.
The lesson here is that “in response to traumatic stress, some individuals, instead of activating the glutamate system to store memories, activate the extra-synaptic GABA system and form inaccessible traumatic memories.”
Is this what has happened to humanity on a global scale, some kind of activation of our extra-synaptic GABA systems to permit the formation of huge barriers around our trauma to make our memory inaccessible? Perhaps.
At the time of Fauci’s strange deposition, I suspect that there was some brilliant madness behind the claim that he could not remember. He said it hundreds of times, again and again on every subject. It was strange, almost like he was training the rest of us to do the same, like some mad scientist modeling the correct way to think about what happened to us. In his view, we shouldn’t think about it at all.
We know we’ve been made the subject of some insane medical and political experiments. It’s perhaps also true that we’ve been made the subject of some malicious psychological experiments, like mice injected with drugs, put in a box, and then shocked. It’s like perhaps the ordering was different: we were put in a box, shocked, and then given drugs.
In any case, it all does indeed feel like PTSD, and it affected no population cohort as traumatically as it did the children. They are owed the truth about the trauma, however, and now. We must have honesty about this. The lies have to stop. We should not tolerate them at all. And the professional liars all need to be removed from their jobs immediately.
In our own lives, we really do need therapy that comes in the form of friendships, community, and physical fellowship with each other. Sadly, the people who need it the most are least likely to get it. I’m thinking of the many people who are still walking around masked up, fearing getting next to others, and otherwise hiding out in their homes in a sense of terror that something bad from the microbial kingdom is going to attack at any time.
The only people who benefit from our mass amnesia are the people who did this to us. We must remember. We must discuss. We must seek justice.
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[Markets]
The Deep State Agenda Is "Controlled Demolition Of America": Alex Newman
The Deep State Agenda Is "Controlled Demolition Of America": Alex Newman
Via Greg Hunter’s USAWatchdog.com,
Award-winning journalist Alex Newman, author of the popular book “Deep State,” says there is a not-so-secret plan to destroy everything in America and everything it stands for.
Newman contends it is the only way for evil globalists to have the tyrannical New World Order they dream of.
The evil destroyers of freedom and liberty around the world will be talking about the demise of America at the globalist COP28 conference in Dubai, UAE this week. Newman explains,
“This is all part of the agenda. What we are watching now is the deliberate destruction of the American middle-class and the deliberate destruction of the American economy.
Ultimately, if these evil doers get their way, it will result in the deliberate destruction of the United States of America. We are talking about the controlled demolition of our economy, our military might and everything we hold dear. This has been known at the highest levels of government for a long time...
During the Trump Administration, they had Rich Higgens on the National Security Counsel, and he put together the ‘Higgens Memo.’ People should read this.
He talked about the global alliance of globalists, communists, socialists and Islamists who are all working in unison for the goal of destroying the United States of America.
This is not just as a nation, says Higgens, but even as an ideal.
They want to shift global power over to China and over to the United Nations to gradually and then suddenly destroy the United States.
They don’t just want to destroy this country, they also want to destroy the ideas and principles it is founded upon because it is simply not compatible with this one world system they want.
George Soros told us what the New World Order was going to look like 10 years ago. He told the Financial Times that China needed to own the New World Order in the same way the United States owns the current one.”
Newman says Donald Trump is not part of the New World Order, and he dismantled much of it during his Presidency.
Newman says,
“Donald Trump is the first President in a century who did not go to this weird club of elitists such as Bohemian Grove. He never went to Bilderberg. He was never involved with the Council on Foreign Relations. Trump did not participate in the Trilateral Commission. He was not recruited in the ‘Scull and Bones’ at Yale like John Kerry, George H.W. Bush and George W. Bush.
He was just not part of the club... Trump was not controlled by these people.
They were able to manipulate him on some key things like the CV19 shots and the MCA, but ultimately, they did not feel like they could control him.
He was an outsider. This is why they are absolutely petrified of him coming back now.”
The news is not all bad as Newman says he is seeing a huge backlash from all sectors to the New World Order agenda. Newman explains,
“There is an enormous backlash building. Just go out and talk to regular people. Turn off the boob tube, and this is not even propaganda, it is psychological terrorism.
Turn it off and talk to real people...
What you will find is normal people who can’t tell you about the Bohemian Grove, the Council on Foreign Relations or the climate scam, but they can tell you ‘we are being lied to.’
Life is getting increasingly difficult. My spouse and I are both working with two jobs, and we still can’t make ends meet. We can’t pay the mortgage. Food costs are going up. They know that this is not normal.
They know that we have a uniparty with Kevin McCarthy who showed up at the Bohemian Grove just before he was ousted as Speaker of the House.
You have an incredible awareness from people that we are being looted, robbed, deceived and that our country is being betrayed.
You don’t have to watch the fake media to be aware of all those things.
I am encouraged by the awareness of people and the polling data that virtually nobody believes the media.”
There is much more in the 40-minute interview.
Join Greg Hunter of USAWatchdog.com as he goes One-on-One with hard-hitting journalist Alex Newman, founder of LibertySentinel.org and author of the book “Deep State” that explains it all for 12.02.23.
* * *
To Donate to USAWatchdog.com Click Here
Newman’s website is called LibertySentinel.org. There is lots of free information and articles. For a copy of Alex Newman’s popular book “Deep State,” click here,
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[Markets]
Putin Formally Announces 2024 Election Bid
Putin Formally Announces 2024 Election Bid
As was long anticipated, Russian President Vladimir Putin has issued a formal announcement saying he's seeking re-election in 2024 - a vote that will be held between March 15 and March 17, 2024. The winner will be inaugurated in early May. Assuming a Putin victory, it would be his fifth term as head of state, and this would put him in office until 2030, after already approaching nearly a quarter-century in power.
Interestingly, the Kremlin cast Putin's declaration as part of "spontaneous" remarks which followed an award ceremony honoring war veterans...
"I won’t hide it from you — I had various thoughts about it over time, but now, you’re right, it’s necessary to make a decision," Putin said in a video released following the event. "I will run for president of the Russian Federation."
Russian state media is already previewing that newly annexed territories of the Donbas would vote in the election:
The Russian leader made his remarks at a ceremony where he awarded Hero of Russia medals to servicemen who had taken part in the special military operation against Ukraine. Hero of the Donetsk People’s Republic Artyom Zhoga, who was recently named speaker of the Russian federal subject’s parliament, asked if he would run in 2024 and he replied in the affirmative.
The footage from the ceremony shows Zhoga shaking hands with Putin and telling him that the entire Donbass would like him to participate in the election. “Thanks to your actions… we became free, we got the opportunity to choose… You are our president… We are your team, we need you, Russia needs you,” he said.
The legal path was paved for this expected fifth term when in 2020 the Russian population voted to overwhelmingly approve an overhaul to the national constitution. Assuming he would again win by a landslide, this means that 71-year old Putin could theoretically stay in power until even 2036 if he wanted to go that far (assuming two more back-to-back terms). He would be 83-years old that year.
In power since 2000, those prior changes to the law allow him to run for two more terms in the Kremlin once his current term ends in 2024. The law now in effect basically "resets" his number of terms already served, which considerably stretch all the way back to 2000 (excepting Dmitry Medvedev's stint as president, 2008-2012).
One early indicator of Putin's intentions was on display all the way back in 2020, when he told reporters while discussing at that time the proposed constitutional changes, "I do not rule out the possibility of running for office, if this comes up in the Constitution. We’ll see." He has also said at the time, "I have not decided anything for myself yet,” according to the prior state television interview statements.
 Via AP
Very likely, the Russian population will rally around desiring a 'strong' and 'proven' leader that can stand up to the West, and to Washington and NATO in particular, again especially given the proxy war nature of what's happening in Ukraine, and given it remains clear that the Russian side is 'winning'. But it remains that among some sectors, the war is unpopular given reports of a huge Russian death toll. The numbers of young men coming back either in coffins or severely maimed from war has certainly had an impact among many common Russian families.
It's been many years since Putin actually had any significant challengers who had major name recognition in Russia (even during Medvedev's rule, Putin was seen as the 'real power' while in the prime minister's role). The West would chalk this up to the Kremlin oppressing or locking up any political rivals or oppositionists (like Navalny, who never actually polled very high regardless) - while many Russians would see in Putin national unity and strength. Following last summer's Wagner armed rebellion, his power is consolidated now more than ever.
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[Markets]
Weekly Roundup
We exited Chipotle, got into Morgan Stanley, and added to Marvell, PepsiCo and the Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund.
Published:12/8/2023 5:54:17 PM
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[Markets]
"A Constant State Of Sticker Shock" – Here Is Proof That Inflation In The US Is Wildly Out Of Control
"A Constant State Of Sticker Shock" – Here Is Proof That Inflation In The US Is Wildly Out Of Control
Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse blog,
Do you believe the politicians in Washington or do you believe your own eyes?
The politicians keep telling us that “inflation is low”, but everyone can see that everything sure does cost a lot more than it once did. Our standard of living just keeps going down, and even JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon is admitting that “inflation is hurting people”. But how can inflation be “hurting people” if it is under control? Of course the truth is that it isn’t under control. If the official rate of inflation was still measured using the formula that was in place in 1980, it would be well into double digit territory right now. Prices have been rising much faster than paychecks have, and that is putting an extraordinary amount of financial stress on the more than 60 percent of U.S. adults that currently live paycheck to paycheck.
Vox is a website that leans very far to the left, and even they are complaining about inflation.
In fact, a recent article posted on Vox boldly declared that life in 2023 “means being in a constant state of sticker shock”…
Life in 2023 means being in a constant state of sticker shock.
You walk out of the grocery store feeling like you’re not really sure what happened, but somehow, your normal fare ran you $50 more than you swear it should have. Did Diet Coke always cost that much? Or eggs? Maybe you’ve been putting off buying that new car in the hope prices go back to where they were pre-pandemic, but you’re starting to feel like the wait is awfully long. Or, the morning after a post-work happy hour, you’re left scratching your head. You swear you had two glasses of wine, but the size of your credit card receipt makes you wonder if it wasn’t four. “How expensive everything is today” is a top theme of conversation. The whole situation can be infuriating.
I don’t care for Vox much, but those two paragraphs are quite accurate.
Prices have reached absurd heights, and most of us really are “in a constant state of sticker shock” these days.
And the cold, hard numbers back this up.
According to a report from Republican members of the U.S. Senate Joint Economic Committee, the typical household in this country “must spend an additional $11,434 annually” in order to have the same standard of living that it did when Joe Biden entered the White House…
The typical American household must spend an additional $11,434 annually just to maintain the same standard of living they enjoyed in January of 2021, right before inflation soared to 40-year highs, according to a recent analysis of government data.
So let me ask you a question.
Has your household income gone up by $11,434 a year since January 2021?
If you are like most Americans, your income has barely moved.
As I discussed last week, half of all American workers made less than $40,847.18 last year.
If you are one of those workers, life is not easy in 2023.
Even really basic things just cost so much at this point. For example, a Big Mac value meal will now set you back 18 dollars in some parts of the country…
A Big Mac burger, a medium beverage, and a medium fry meal now costs 18 dollars in some locations, up $10 from 2018 when former President Donald Trump was president.
Visiting McDonald’s has become something that only wealthy people can afford to do on a regular basis.
Of course it isn’t just fast food that has become painfully expensive…
-
A pound of ground beef now costs $5.23 on average, up from $3.89 in January 2020.
-
Coffee is up some $2 a pound. Prices for fresh fruits and vegetables are nearly 14% higher.
-
At one point, the price of a carton of eggs was triple its pre-pandemic price.
When I was growing up, my mother would feed us ground beef all the time.
Now it is considered to be a luxury item.
Let me give you another example of how inflation is killing us financially.
The cost of auto insurance and the cost of home insurance are both going through the roof…
The skyrocketing cost of auto and home insurance is increasingly weighing on cash-strapped Americans.
In 2022, the average price of both types of insurance saw its biggest spike in more than five years.
And this year rates are projected to grow by an even greater amount, according to analysis from S&P Global Market Intelligence. Within the first seven months, both had already jumped by double-digit amounts.
When you combine both expenses, the average American household is now spending over $3,700 a year…
According to the latest analysis from Forbes Advisor, the average cost of home insurance is $1,582 a year for a policy with $350,000 coverage. And typical motorist pays $2,150 a year for full coverage car insurance.
That means on car and home insurance alone a household can expect to spend more than $3,700 a year.
How can anyone afford that?
And don’t get me started on health insurance.
Our system is so broken that only those with lots of money can afford a decent health insurance policy that actually has adequate coverage.
Needless to say, Joe Biden doesn’t want to take the blame for any of this. Last week, he was accusing large corporations of “price gouging”…
President Joe Biden delivered remarks from the White House on Monday to announce the new council’s creation. He touted the lower inflation rate and falling grocery prices but admonished American companies for, in his view, not going far enough.
“Let me be clear: To any corporation that has not brought their prices back down—even as inflation has come down, even as supply chains have been rebuilt—it’s time to stop the price gouging,” Biden warned, imploring them to “giv[e] the American consumer a break.”
Seriously?
Other liberals are actually blaming you for inflation…
People hate inflation, just not enough to spend less: This is one of the central tensions of today’s economy, in which things are going great yet everyone is miserable. And in some ways, Americans have nobody to blame but themselves.
No matter how high prices go, most of us still have to pay the bills and put food on the table.
So there is only so much that we can “cut back” on our spending.
However, one recent survey did find that approximately a quarter of the U.S. population has been engaged in “doom spending”…
Nearly all Americans, 96%, are concerned about the current state of the economy, according to a recent report by Intuit Credit Karma.
Still, more than a quarter are “doom spending,” or spending money despite economic and geopolitical concerns, the report found.
A lot of people figure that if everything is about to fall apart they may as well enjoy things while they still can.
But I think that a much wiser approach would be to use the resources that you have to get prepared for the tremendous chaos that is ahead of us.
Economic conditions are going to get a whole lot rougher from here.
So enjoy these relatively stable times while you still can, because they will not last indefinitely…
* * *
Michael’s new book entitled “Chaos” is now available in paperback and for the Kindle on Amazon.com, and you can check out his new Substack newsletter right here.
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[Markets]
Elon Musk Appeals SEC Case To US Supreme Court, Alleges Violation Of Free Speech Rights
Elon Musk Appeals SEC Case To US Supreme Court, Alleges Violation Of Free Speech Rights
Authored by Gary Bai via The Epoch Times,
Elon Musk asked the U.S. Supreme Court to undo a part of a deal he made with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) that required vetting of his online posts, alleging that the deal violates his free speech rights, Mr. Musk’s lawyer, Ellyde Thompson, confirmed with The Epoch Times on Thursday.
The billionaire businessman asked the high court in a Dec. 7 petition to hear his appeal of a lower court's decision in May that upheld a 2018 consent decree that he negotiated with the SEC, escalating a years-long feud between the industrialist and the powerful regulatory agency to the nation’s highest court.
The consent decree resulted from settlement negotiations of a 2018 lawsuit brought by the federal agency against Mr. Musk, which alleged that Mr. Musk made "false and misleading" statements to investors when he posted on Twitter (now X) in August of that year that he had "funding secured" to take private his electric car company, Tesla.
The terms of the consent decree, to which Mr. Musk agreed, stipulate that Mr. Musk steps down as the then-chairman of Tesla; Mr. Musk and Tesla each pay a civil penalty of $20 million; and that Mr. Musk obtain pre-approval from a securities lawyer before publishing written statements about Tesla or its shareholders.
In February 2019, the SEC alleged that Mr. Musk violated that deal when he posted on Twitter, “Tesla made 0 cars in 2011, but will make around 500k in 2019,” and sought contempt sanctions, which included fines and potential imprisonment.
After a few court proceedings, the two parties resolved the contempt sanctions, but Mr. Musk sought to quash the SEC's consent decree, arguing that the SEC had exploited the decree to “punish protected speech” because Mr. Musk is an "outspoken and much-followed critic of the government generally, and the SEC specifically."
A Manhattan-based federal district court and later a federal appeals court both ruled in favor of the SEC, on the rationale that Mr. Musk could not revisit the speech-vetting deal because he previously agreed to the deal in the settlement with the SEC.
"Parties entering into consent decrees may voluntarily waive their First Amendment and other rights," wrote a three-judge panel in the Manhattan-based U.S. Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit in an August decision. "Had Musk wished to preserve his right to tweet without even limited internal oversight concerning certain Tesla-related topics, he had 'the right to litigate and defend against the [SEC’s] charges' or to negotiate a different agreement—but he chose not to do so."
Mr. Musk's Thursday filing takes issue with this point of law, contending that despite having agreed to the consent decree after negotiations with the SEC, the agency had no right to impose, as a condition of settling, a "gag rule" that they contend violated the U.S. Constitution's First Amendment constraints on governmental limits on free speech.
The petition asks the court to rule that "government settlements are not immune from constitutional scrutiny,” a decision Mr. Musk’s lawyer says would benefit “the hundreds of defendants who settle cases with the SEC each year” because they cannot afford to litigate.
The SEC consent decree “restricts Mr. Musk’s speech even when truthful and accurate,” Mr. Musk’s lawyers wrote in the petition to the Supreme Court. “It extends to speech not covered by the securities laws and with no relation to the conduct underlying the SEC’s civil action against Mr. Musk. And it chills Mr. Musk’s speech through the never-ending threat of contempt, fines, or even imprisonment for otherwise protected speech if not pre-approved to the SEC’s or a court’s satisfaction.”
The district and appeal courts’ ruling “squarely conflicts” with past U.S. Supreme Court decisions,” they added, “and it vests administrative agencies with intolerable power to coerce private parties into relinquishing their constitutional rights.”
Four of nine U.S. Supreme Court justices would need to agree to hear the case for it to advance to oral arguments.
Separately, the New Orleans-based Fifth U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals has agreed to reconsider its March decision that Musk violated federal labor law by posting on Twitter in May 2018 that Tesla employees would lose stock options if they joined a union. The Fifth Circuit is set to hear arguments in the case in January 2024.
The SEC did not immediately respond to a request for comment from The Epoch Times.
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[Markets]
The Tell: S&P 500 may rise to 5,100 by end of 2024 as U.S. stock-market rally broadens, Citi says
The S&P 500 index may climb to 5,100 by the end of next year in a broadening of the U.S. stock market’s rally, according to Citi analysts.
Published:12/8/2023 4:36:28 PM
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[Markets]
SmileDirectClub winds down operations — but customers are told to keep paying
SmileDirectClub winds down operations — but customers are told to keep paying
Published:12/8/2023 4:36:28 PM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures: Market Looks Ready To Run Again; 5 Stocks In Buy Zones As Tesla Sets Up
The S&P 500 hit a 2023 high, signaling the market may be ready for run again. 5 chip stocks are in buy zones as Tesla sets up.
Published:12/8/2023 4:06:20 PM
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[Markets]
US Bank Deposit Outflows Continue To Surge As Regional 'Stress' Accelerates
US Bank Deposit Outflows Continue To Surge As Regional 'Stress' Accelerates
Yesterday we found out that inflows to money-market funds continue to be huge ($290BN in six weeks), and more importantly, regional banks' usage of The Fed's BTFP bailout facility surged to a new record high (even as regional banks surged...
Source: Bloomberg
And so, with that shitshow in mind, we await the glorious manipulation of The Fed's bank deposits data to reinforce that equity confidence.
On a seasonally-adjusted basis, banks saw a $53.7BN deposit outflow...
Source: Bloomberg
However, on a non-seasonally-adjusted basis, deposits rose by $27BN...
Source: Bloomberg
And even with the outflows (SA), the divergence between soaring money-market funds and bank deposits continues to widen...
Source: Bloomberg
Excluding foreign bank deposits, domestic banks saw the third week of the last four of deposit outflows (-$40.6BN SA) with Large banks -$35BN (SA) and Small banks losing $5.7BN (SA). On an NSA basis, domestic banks saw inflows of $36.5BN last week with Large banks adding $32BN and Small banks adding $4BN...
Source: Bloomberg
That adds up to $88BN (SA) of deposit outflows in the last four weeks (bank to its lowest total since May...
Source: Bloomberg
And on the other side of the ledger, despite deposits declining SA, loan volumes increased (SA) for the third week in a row with Small banks adding $2.1BN and Large banks adding $3.8BN...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, the key warning sign continues to trend ominously lower (Small Banks' reserve constraint), supported above the critical level by The Fed's emergency funds (for now)...
Source: Bloomberg
As the red line shows, without The Fed's help, the crisis is back (and large bank cash needs a home - green line - like picking up a small bank from the FDIC).
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[Markets]
S&P 500 ends at 2023 high, books longest weekly win streak in 4 years
S&P 500 ends at 2023 high, books longest weekly win streak in 4 years
Published:12/8/2023 3:42:40 PM
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[Markets]
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks gain, Treasury yields jump after US job report
A gauge of global stocks rose on Friday, on pace for its sixth straight week of gains, while U.S. Treasury yields shot higher after a strong U.S. jobs report forced markets to modify expectations for the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from the near two-year high of 3.9% in October. Ahead of the payrolls report, a string of labor market data this week indicated some softening in the jobs market, while other reports in recent weeks showed a cooling of inflation and led markets to increase expectations the Federal Reserve would have the leeway to cut interest rates as soon as March.
Published:12/8/2023 3:34:26 PM
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[Markets]
Stock market news today: Stocks on six-week win streak after strong jobs report
Investors are weighing a surprise drop in unemployment in November and other data for what it could mean for Fed policy.
Published:12/8/2023 3:16:01 PM
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[Markets]
Cryptos Jump, Commodities Dump, & Yield-Curve Slumps In 'Goldilocks' Week
Cryptos Jump, Commodities Dump, & Yield-Curve Slumps In 'Goldilocks' Week
Reality set in this week that the 'goldilocks' narrative is not compatible with the massive rate-cuts priced-in for next year.
As Goldman warned:
"...it may be hard to justify more than 75bp of cumulative easing without weaker growth. A recession could clearly motivate a much deeper easing cycle, but a high weight on that outcome is not consistent with other asset prices, or with our own central case.
...
For that reason, the market is moving into territory where we think it will become more difficult for US rates to rally unless the growth picture deteriorates more than we, and other markets, expect.”
Stocks mixed-ish, Bonds mixed-ish, Commodities down, Crypto up, & Dollar up as Rate-Cut hopes faded this week (from 140bps in 2024 to 112bps)...
Source: Bloomberg
On the macro side - it was all 'soft' with a little firming in 'hard' data: Inflation expectations (survey) down along with gasoline, Services (survey) data up, labor market mixed (JOLTS weak but unemployment lower), consumer sentiment (survey) soars, and geopolitical risk mixed (US pressures Israel for ceasefire but military action in Yemen looms).
Source: Bloomberg
Good news, bad news, no news; Didn't matter as stocks chopped around wildly squeezing and un-squeezing this week. Small Caps and Mega-Cap tech outperformed while The S&P managed to get green for the week but The Dow struggled all week...
Every time The Dow got green on the week, selling pressure hit...
A chaotic week for 'most shorted' stocks, crashing up and down like a whore's drawers...
Source: Bloomberg
After an ugly open on Monday, Magnificent 7 stocks soared 4.5% off the Monday lows, back up near record highs...
Source: Bloomberg
All of which meant hedge funds got it from both ends unable to escape from Friday's carnage...
Source: Bloomberg
Energy stocks were the week's biggest losers while tech and discretionary outperformed...
Source: Bloomberg
We couldn't help but laugh at the surge in regional bank stocks - now back up near post-SVB highs - while their use of the expensive BTFP bailout facility at The Fed surged to a new record $122BN...
Source: Bloomberg
Treasuries were mixed on the week with the short-end underperforming. Only the long-bond managed to close the week higher in price (lower in yield)...
Source: Bloomberg
Which pushed the yield curve significantly flatter (more inverted). This was the biggest weekly flattening since Nov 2022 to its most inverted since Sept....
Source: Bloomberg
The dollar surged higher this week (after three straight weeks down) ...
Source: Bloomberg
Cryptos were all higher this week with Solana outperforming. BTC and ETH were each up around 13%...
Source: Bloomberg
Bitcoin ripped up to $44,000 (its highest since April 2022)...
Source: Bloomberg
Ethereum neared $2400 (its highest since May 2022)...
Source: Bloomberg
Commodities were all lower with Silver clubbed like a baby seal, NatGas ugly, Oil & gold were sold, and copper was the least ugly horse in the glue factory...
Source: Bloomberg
Spot Gold fell back to $2000 today
Source: Bloomberg
Gold's outperformance pushed the gold/silver ratio back to the upper end of its range this year (from the lower end)...
Source: Bloomberg
Oil prices rallied today, ending a 6-day losing streak. WTI found support at $70 (5-month lows)...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, which comes first - the equity market collapse or global central bank balance sheet explosion?
Source: Bloomberg
Our money's on the former and then the latter and the two meeting in the middle before melting up.
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[Markets]
Apple iPhone, Watch product design head to leave: report
Apple iPhone, Watch product design head to leave: report
Published:12/8/2023 2:43:47 PM
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[Markets]
Stock Market Picking Up Steam; Crypto Exchange Stock Rallies
The stock market posted increasing gains after wavering in Friday action. CRISR Therapeutics stock has a wild ride on U.S. FDA drug news.
Published:12/8/2023 2:30:33 PM
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[Markets]
The Media Is Hyping Up "Carbon Passports" To Restrict Travel
The Media Is Hyping Up "Carbon Passports" To Restrict Travel
Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,
A talking point that is now everywhere in the media is the notion that in the near future travel is highly likely to be restricted through the introduction of so called ‘carbon passports’.
Last week, CNN ran a piece created by something called ‘The Conversation,’ which had the headline “It’s time to limit how often we can travel abroad – ‘carbon passports’ may be the answer”
Within this “analysis,” readers were told that record-breaking heatwaves, wildfires and extreme weather events are being driven in part by people going on holiday.
“Tourism is part of the problem,” the piece asserts, adding “The tourism sector generates around one-tenth of the greenhouse gas emissions that are driving the climate crisis.”
It then goes on to suggest that the introduction of carbon passports which would see every “traveler being assigned a yearly carbon allowance that they cannot exceed,” could “ration” travel.
“This concept may seem extreme,” the writer states before telling you that it isn’t and it’s a probably a good idea because of how on the verge of collapse the environment is.
“Boiling temperatures will probably diminish the allure of traditional beach destinations,” anyway, claims the author.
This isn’t just one alarmist story languishing somewhere in the dark depths of CNN’s website, it’s everywhere:
The propaganda information, including another piece published this week by Business Insider, all cites a report written by a consultancy agency called The Future Laboratory which was released by a travel company called Intrepid.
That report states that “These allowances will manifest as passports that force people to ration their carbon in line with the global carbon budget, which is 750 billion tonnes until 2050.”
“By 2040, we can expect to see limitations imposed on the amount of travel that is permitted each year,” it continues, adding that by then “it will be unusual to see members of Generation Alpha without a carbon-footprint tracker on their smartphones. Every Uber ride, plane journey, and trip to the supermarket will be logged in their devices, noting their carbon footprint in real time.”
Sounds like a lot of fun.
Not only will you own nothing and like it, if this progresses as these ‘experts’ suggest, you won’t be able to go anywhere either.
Of course, people like Bill Gates, John Kerry and their ilk will still be allowed to constantly fly around in their private jets, because they are “the solution.”
Your one budget Easyjet flight to Malaga every couple of years is the big problem.
* * *
Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch.
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[Markets]
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks advance, Treasury yields jump after US payrolls report
A gauge of global stocks climbed on Friday, poised for its sixth straight week of gains, while U.S. Treasury yields rose after a strong U.S. jobs report forced markets to modify expectations for the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from the near two-year high of 3.9% in October. Ahead of the payrolls report, a run of labor market data this week indicated some softening in the jobs market, while other reports in recent weeks showed a cooling of inflation and led markets to increase expectations the Federal Reserve would have the leeway to cut interest rates as soon as March.
Published:12/8/2023 2:05:06 PM
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[Markets]
Commodities Corner: Wheat futures mark first daily loss in 9 sessions as USDA lifts global production forecast
Wheat futures decline on Friday, marking their first daily loss in nine sessions, while soybean futures end lower after a monthly supply-and-demand report from the USDA.
Published:12/8/2023 1:58:47 PM
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[Markets]
What you need to know about the recession indicator that has Wall Street talking
What you need to know about the recession indicator that has Wall Street talking
Published:12/8/2023 1:51:46 PM
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[Markets]
How the jobs report could shape mortgage rates
How the jobs report could shape mortgage rates
Published:12/8/2023 1:13:43 PM
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[Markets]
Stock Market Shows Modest Gains; Yoga Apparel Stock Hits All-Time High
The stock market posted small gains after wavering in Friday action. Lululemon earnings delighted investors, lifting the stock to new highs.
Published:12/8/2023 1:07:10 PM
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[Markets]
Car makers face 1.2m payouts over emissions cheating claims, judges told
Car manufacturers are facing more than 1.2m compensation claims following allegations that “defeat devices” were fitted to diesel vehicles to get around emissions tests, judges have been told.
Published:12/8/2023 12:42:30 PM
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[Markets]
Global Rate Correlation Shows View Central Banks Hunt In Packs
Global Rate Correlation Shows View Central Banks Hunt In Packs
Authored by Ven Ram, Bloomberg cross-asset strategist,
Depending on how you are positioned on rates, there is a virtuous circle - or a vicious cycle - on display in the major global rates markets, with markets feeding off one another.
Correlations between German front-end bonds and comparable Treasuries, usually pretty remarkable, are now close closing in on 0.9.
Which is to say that much of the shift that we have seen in German front-end bonds reflects what is happening across the Atlantic.
That isn’t to say that recent rally in two-year German securities doesn’t have legs.
Between August and the end of November, the markets tried to push the yield on the maturity below 3% several times - and failed at each of those attempts.
But with the disinflationary narrative in the euro zone gaining credibility, the current rally is fully sanctified.
The degree of enthusiasm sweeping through the markets may also be seen in front-end gilts’ correlation with Treasuries, which has shot up from deeply negative levels - when UK and Treasury yields were marching in opposite directions - to around 0.7 now.
Given that the UK has arguably the most deeply embedded and worst inflation outlook among the major markets, one might think that moves in front-end gilts that are in lockstep with Treasuries are hardly justified.
However, there is an underlying message from the markets that speaks to their long-held conviction that central banks hunt in packs, never alone - meaning, should the Fed pivot, so will the European Central Bank and others possibly following in tow.
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[Markets]
Strong jobs data muddies soft landing bets
November's strong jobs report appears to be complicating the economic soft landing narrative. John Hancock Investment Management Co-Chief Investment Strategist Matt Miskin says stock market volatility reflects a "never-ending late-cycle environment" where employment remains the "strongest pillar" of the economy. With the S&P 500 (^GSPC) up 20% and the NASDAQ (^IXIC) up 37% year-to-date, Miskin suggests investors should trim risks after November's big turkey rally. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
Published:12/8/2023 12:18:16 PM
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[Markets]
Market Extra: Solid job growth, sharp wage gains sends Treasury yields up by the most in months
Friday's official job report is spurring a bit of a rethink about how quickly the Federal Reserve can cut borrowing costs, and pushing yields up by more than any time in months.
Published:12/8/2023 12:00:16 PM
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[Markets]
Stocks Search for Direction After Latest Data
Stocks were vacillating between gains and losses on Friday as traders digested the latest set of economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1%. The S&P 500 was flat, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 0.
Published:12/8/2023 11:39:28 AM
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[Markets]
The EU-China Trade Relationship Is In The Balance
The EU-China Trade Relationship Is In The Balance
By Teeuwe Mevissen of Rabobank
Yesterday the first in-person meeting between European and Chinese leaders in four years took place. Covid made an earlier summit like this impossible so it was about time that leaders of both blocks would meet to discuss a plethora of topics that currently define EU-Sino relations. Despite the necessity of talks and policy coordination on cross border challenges, expectations regarding the outcome of the summit were modest at best. According to a summit background document published by the European Commission, five major topics were on the agenda:
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EU-China relations including economic and trade,
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Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,
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the situation in the Middle East,
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climate change,
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global health and pandemic preparedness.
While the EU will raise concerns about the current imbalance in EU-China trade relations, China reiterated that they want to be a key trading partner with the EU. This unfortunately does not solve EU’s increasing trade deficit with China and patience seems to be running out. In other words, EU-China’s trade relationship might be in the balance.
It is not expected that a ground-breaking resolution will be agreed upon. But aside from the economic and financial implications of EU-China trade relations, Covid – amongst others – also made clear that being over-reliant on certain key inputs from one or just a few countries leaves one vulnerable in times of crisis. Indeed, only yesterday we published a special report addressing EU’s vulnerabilities in an ever changing and increasingly fragmented world order. The low expectations that were voiced before the summit turned out to be a justified. While it is common that after summits like this a joint press statement is provided, none was given this time. Still it remains important that the EU and China continue to engage via top levels of government if only to cooperate on issues were both share common interests like climate change.
This morning saw a slew of data coming from Japan. This followed a major shift in market expectations regarding future monetary policy of the Bank of Japan (BoJ). BoJ President Kazuo Ueda addressed members of parliament yesterday with the message that his job will become more challenging next year indicating possible changes in its monetary policy stance i.e. a departure from Japan’s negative policy rate. Soon after his deputy Ryozo rushed in to calm down markets with the message that no significant adverse impact is to be expected from a rate hike. Needless to say that this actually seems to confirm market expectations that the era of negative rates in Japan might soon be over. But looking at the most recent data that came out this morning, the BoJ’s mission to normalize monetary policy could be in jeopardy already. This morning it became clear that in the third quarter Japan’s economy shrunk with an annualized 2.9%, more than expected in the first estimate. Private consumption declined 0.2% compared to the previous quarter so not exactly the window of opportunity that the BoJ was looking for, perhaps.
All of this resulted in considerable strengthening of the yen against the dollar. At one point yesterday the yen gained 4% against the dollar and bearish bets on the yen were quickly abandoned. Thin liquidity added to the large swings that were observed yesterday. However a former executive director of the BoJ - Hideo Hayakawa - warned that markets have overreacted on yesterday’s comments from Kazuo Ueda. According to Hideo Hayakawa “This is probably a temporary market phenomenon,”. He added that “Ueda is looking for evidence. There is no need to rush now after intentionally choosing to be behind in coming this far.” While we already expected an appreciation of the yen vis a vis the dollar, yesterday’s pace already breached our 6 month forecast of 148 and at the moment of writing USDJPY is still at a level of just below 144, as our currency watcher Jane Foley notes. Therefore we also think that USDJPY is oversold at this moment but we do continue to expect a level of 142 in 12 months from now.
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[Markets]
The Waltons of Walmart fame are no longer the world’s wealthiest family dynasty
The Waltons of Walmart fame are no longer the world’s wealthiest family dynasty
Published:12/8/2023 11:13:43 AM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Holds Firm Above 36,000 After Jobs Report; LULU Stock Reverses Higher After Earnings
The Dow Jones rose modestly Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the latest jobs report. Small caps outperformed as bond yields rose.
Published:12/8/2023 11:02:02 AM
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[Markets]
Joe Biden: Economic Ignoramus
Joe Biden: Economic Ignoramus
Authored by Michael Maharrey via SchiffGold.com,
Are “greedy” corporations driving inflation? Could taxing billionaires solve the federal government’s fiscal problems?
According to President Joe Biden, the answer to both questions is yes.
And the correct answer is no.
So, Biden is either economically ignorant or a liar. Or maybe both.
Biden put his economic ignorance on full display with a couple of comments last week.
Greedy Corporations Are Causing Inflation!
Biden made the first comment in a speech during the launch of a new White House supply chain initiative. It had to do with price inflation.
Any corporation that has not brought their prices back down, even as inflation has come down, even as the supply chains have been rebuilt, it’s time to stop the price gouging. Give the American consumer a break.”
The general public eats this stuff. Blaming greedy corporations for rising prices plays to the president’s base.
The truth is that corporations don’t create price inflation. One simply has to reason through the claim to uncover the absurdity of the idea. If corporations can willy-nilly raise prices and enjoy “excessive” profits, why don’t they do it all the time? Did corporations suddenly get greedy in 2021? And why did the Federal Reserve spend a decade fretting about inflation being “too low” as it struggled to hit its 2% target? Was there not enough corporate greed before the coronavirus?
But government people like Biden can get away with this narrative because they have redefined inflation.
Historically, economists defined inflation as an increase in the amount of money and credit — or put another way, an expansion in the money supply. Over the years, the government, along with its apologists in the corporate media and academia, altered the definition to suit government purposes. Today, inflation just means “rising prices.”
But rising prices in and of themselves aren’t inflation. Prices can go up for all kinds of reasons. For instance, we might have higher demand or supply shortages.
Rising prices aren’t inflation, but they are a symptom of monetary inflation. When governments and central banks increase the money supply, ALL prices go up more than they otherwise would have.
Economist Ludwig von Mises explains the problem with this change in definitions.
“People today use the term `inflation’ to refer to the phenomenon that is an inevitable consequence of inflation, that is the tendency of all prices and wage rates to rise. The result of this deplorable confusion is that there is no term left to signify the cause of this rise in prices and wages. There is no longer any word available to signify the phenomenon that has been, up to now, called inflation. . . . As you cannot talk about something that has no name, you cannot fight it. Those who pretend to fight inflation are in fact only fighting what is the inevitable consequence of inflation, rising prices. Their ventures are doomed to failure because they do not attack the root of the evil. They try to keep prices low while firmly committed to a policy of increasing the quantity of money that must necessarily make them soar. As long as this terminological confusion is not entirely wiped out, there cannot be any question of stopping inflation.”
If we use the traditional definition of inflation as an “expansion of the supply of money,” the culprit becomes clear. Who expands the supply of money? It’s the Fed and the federal government. So, if you accurately define inflation, you know exactly who’s to blame. But if the government can fool people into believing that the effect of inflation is inflation, they can blame it on everybody but themselves.
Biden played it perfectly. It’s good politics, but it’s horrible economics.
The comment is even dumber than that. Biden implies that inflation “going down” means companies should lower their prices.
That’s not how this works. That’s not how any of this works.
When we say inflation is “cooling,” we just mean that based on the CPI, prices aren’t rising as fast as they were earlier this year. But prices are still rising. Now granted, the CPI in October was flat. Prices didn’t rise during that month. But they didn’t fall either. So, why should corporations cut prices? They are still paying much more to produce goods and services than they were last year.
How much more?
Since January 2022, prices have gone up 9.7% based on the CPI. And you should know that the CPI is designed to understate rising prices. They changed the formula in the 1990s. If we were using the CPI formula they used back then, CPI would be double what it is today.
To sum it up, prices have gone up almost 10% in less than two years (based on questionable government numbers). They are still going up today, just not quite as fast. And Biden is finger-pointing at corporations. Meanwhile, his administration is borrowing and spending like a drunken sailor, which, by the way, is inflationary.
And that brings us to Biden’s second ignorant statement.
Taxing Billionaires Will Fix Everything!
You won’t be surprised to learn Joe Biden wants to tax billionaires more.
A billionaire minimum tax of just 25% would raise $440 billion over the next 10 years. Imagine what we could do if we just made billionaires pay their taxes like everyone else.”
This is typical left-wing class warfare stuff. I don’t even want to get into the value of billionaires to society. Let’s just take it at face value, pretend billionaires are evil parasites, and look at the math.
That $440 billion sounds like a lot of money. And it is to normal people. But in government accounting, it’s basically pennies.
The US government spends around $500 billion every single month. That means the amount of money Uncle Sam could collect with this proposed tax over 10 years wouldn’t fund the government for one single month.
Let’s look at it another way. The US government paid $879 billion in interest expense during fiscal 2023. That means this $440 billion windfall would only pay half of the interest expense for one year.
Out of curiosity, I did a little digging. Turns out there are 740 American billionaires with a collective net worth of $5 trillion. Keep in mind, it’s not like these people have $5 trillion in cash sitting in a vault somewhere. A lot of that wealth is in stocks and real estate. A bad week in the stock market could drastically lower that number very quickly.
But let’s pretend they have that much money in cash. If the government took all of it – every single penny – it wouldn’t fund the government for a single year.
Last year, the Biden administration spent $6.46 trillion. You don’t have to have a Ph.D. in math to realize that’s bigger than $5 trillion.
Democrats especially like to use billionaires as a scapegoat. They pretend that if we just taxed these people more, the government could do whatever it wants, solve world hunger, and give you a unicorn.
It’s just not true.
The truth is the government spends too much. It borrows too much. The Fed creates inflation to do it. You pay the inflation tax every time you go to the grocery or the gas station. The government is stealing your wealth every single day.
Here’s the truth – despite what Joe Biden tells you, none of your problems are because of a billionaire.
Your biggest problem is politicians and government people. And they’re playing you.
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[Markets]
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks gain, Treasury yields climb after US payrolls report
A gauge of global stocks was higher on Friday, on track for its sixth straight week of gains, while U.S. Treasury yields rose following a strong U.S. jobs report forced markets to recalibrate the timing of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve. The unemployment rate fell to 3.7% from the near two-year high of 3.9% in October. Ahead of the payrolls report, a run of data this week indicated some softening in the labor market, while data in recent weeks showed a cooling of inflation and led markets to increase expectations the Federal Reserve would have the leeway to cut interest rates as soon as March.
Published:12/8/2023 10:24:17 AM
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[Markets]
Major Indexes Look to Extend Weekly Win Streaks
The major stock indexes were trying to eke out another week of gains. The Nasdaq Composite, up 0.4%, was gearing up to mark a 6-week winning streak, its longest weekly winning streak since June. The S&P 500 was trading near the 4,594.63 mark, a level that would extend its weekly winning streak to 6 consecutive weeks, its longest streak since late 2019.
Published:12/8/2023 10:17:51 AM
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[Markets]
US-Israel Rift Over Civilian Casualties Intensifies As 'King Bibi' Doubles Down
US-Israel Rift Over Civilian Casualties Intensifies As 'King Bibi' Doubles Down
With the 2024 election fast approaching and Democrat support for Israel's war on Hamas waning, the Biden administration - which is also trying to sell Congress on handing $14.3 billion in aid to Israel - has been ratcheting up pressure on Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to minimize civilian casualties, recognize and work with the Palestinian Authority, resume peace talks, and commit to not reoccupying Gaza.
The chances of that happening are virtually nil, however, as Netanyahu's government has made clear that Israel plans to destroy Hamas, retain an open-ended security presence in Gaza, impose a buffer zone to keep Palestinians away from the border, and never recognize the Palestinian Authority.
Despite the clear differences in vision for an endgame to this conflict, Israel knows the Biden administration is nothing more than a paper tiger in a dog mask, despite some 16,000 civilians reported dead by Gaza health authorities.
As the Washington Times notes;
But as the death toll in Gaza continues to rise, conditions deteriorate, and Biden enters an election year with significant portions of his Democratic base pushing for an end to Israel’s offensive, these differences are likely to grow in the absence of a clear endgame.
Shavit said that tensions could rise if the U.S. at some point concludes that Israel is dragging its feet or ignoring American demands. But for now, “the Americans want Israel to succeed,” he said.
Daniel Levy, a former Israeli peace negotiator who is president of the U.S./Middle East Project, a policy institute that studies the Israeli-Palestinian conflict, said the Americans are unlikely to put their foot down.
He cited what he described as a tepid American response to heavy civilian casualties in southern Gaza as an indicator of what lies ahead.
“Israelis have a sense that their road to run is not endless, but they still feel they have lots of road to run,” he said.
As we noted over the weekend, Biden's Defense Secretary, former Raytheon board member Lloyd Austin warned that Israel needs to be careful about civilian deaths.
"If you drive them into the arms of the enemy, you replace a tactical victory with a strategic defeat," he said. "So I have repeatedly made clear to Israel’s leaders that protecting civilians in Gaza is both a moral responsibility and a strategic imperative."
And on Thursday, US Secretary of State Antony Blinken issued a stern warning, that "civilian casualties remain too high and that Israel must step up its efforts to reduce them."
Blinken has also called on Israel to allow more humanitarian aid into Gaza.
On Wednesday, UN Secretary-General António Guterres invoked Article 99 of the UN charger, which allows him to raise to the Security Council's attention "any issue that may aggravate existing threats to the maintenance of international peace and security."
The letter to the 15-member council - the seventh in the UN's 78-year history in which Article 99 has been invoked - urged the body to "press to avert a humanitarian catastrophe," and unite in a call for a full humanitarian ceasefire.
In response, Israeli Foreign Minister Eli Cohen flipped out - calling Guiterres' tenure "a danger to world peace," and that the call for ceasefire in Gaza amounted to supporting Hamas and their Oct. 7 terrorist attack on Israel.
The Security Council was expected to hold an emergency meeting at 10AM ET on Friday in New York, after the UAE on Thursday submitted a draft resolution calling for an urgent humanitarian ceasefire which has the support of Arab and Islamic nations.
Is 'King Bibi' sacrificing Israel to save his political career?
As The Cradle noted on Tuesday, while Netanyahu faces international pressure from both allies and adversaries to rethink his strategy, he's also trying to tamp down a domestic revolt withing his own Likud party - with reports circulating about deposing him through a Knesset vote of no confidence, after which another party member would be selected to lead the government.
Essentially, Netanyahu's political survival strategy centers on portraying himself as the lone defender against shallow US rhetoric for a two-state solution. Attempting to sidestep responsibility for the occupation state’s failures, Netanyahu now faces a resurgent Benny Gantz in the opposition. Recent Israeli polls predict a significant shift among the wider public, favoring opposition and Arab parties over the current right-wing coalition. Per the polling, a new coalition could be expected to win 79 seats, compared to 41 seats for the parties of the current Likud-far-right government.
Israel’s precarious political situation has Netanyahu resisting any solution, settlement, or exit that could lead to legal consequences for him. He undermines his party by threatening immediate elections post-war if Likud's internal machinations against him don't stop - having already refused to step down from his post.
More worrisome yet is that despite Israel's devastating past war experiences in Lebanon, Netanyahu may view a northern war as his only potential escape route - a way to reshuffle his political fortunes to avoid corruption charges and face his military failures. Why not play Russian roulette with Lebanon when the only other option is a long stretch in a prison cell?
Meanwhile, the clock is ticking on the 2024 US election, and then there's the matter of the $14.3 billion courtesy (though not by choice) of the US taxpayer.
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Rises 140 Points After Jobs Report; LULU Stock Reverses Higher After Earnings
The Dow Jones rose modestly Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the latest jobs report. Small caps outperformed as bond yields rose.
Published:12/8/2023 9:59:35 AM
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[Markets]
Stocks Turn Higher After Consumer Sentiment Data
Stocks turned higher Friday as an upbeat reading on inflation expectations overshadowed a stronger-than-expected jobs report. After opening in negative territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered to gain 128 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%.
Published:12/8/2023 9:41:02 AM
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[Markets]
Consumer Sentiment Improves as Inflation Expectations Decline
The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment index jumped 13% to 69.4 in the first few weeks of December, up from November’s final reading of 61.3. Five-year inflation expectations were also lower, coming in at 2.8%, down from 3.2% last month. Inflation climbed 3.2% year over year in October, according to the latest reading of the consumer price index.
Published:12/8/2023 9:34:41 AM
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[Markets]
U.S. consumer sentiment improving in December for the first time in five months
U.S. consumer sentiment improving in December for the first time in five months
Published:12/8/2023 9:28:21 AM
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[Markets]
Toy magnet ball sets linked to 7 deaths and 2,400 hospitalizations
If swallowed, the magnets can attract to one another and cause perforations, intestinal blockages and blood poisoning, federal safety regulators warn.
Published:12/8/2023 9:03:52 AM
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[Markets]
November jobs data: Strategist eyes Treasury yield movement
Analyzing the November jobs report released Friday morning, Commonwealth Financial Network CIO Brad McMillan spotlights the 10-year Treasury yield (^TNX) as a key metric to watch. He explains how yields have climbed on assumptions of imminent interest rate cuts by the Fed and expected economic slowdowns. However, stronger-than-expected hiring data challenges that narrative. McMillan believes the report signals economic acceleration rather than slowdown. Consequently, McMillan expects Treasury yields will face upward pressure after pricing in future economic data prints. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
Published:12/8/2023 9:03:52 AM
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[Markets]
The Reckoning Begins...
The Reckoning Begins...
Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,
Are gold prices and interest rates joined at the hip? Based on recent market action, it would appear the answer is: yes.
A major rally in gold is now underway. Gold moved from $1,831 per ounce on Oct. 6 to $2,091 per ounce on Dec. 1, a 14.1% rally in just eight weeks and a new all-time high price for gold.
Gold has pulled back to $2,037 as of today, but that’s not surprising given its previous surge. Like every other asset, gold can sometimes get ahead of itself and experience a pullback. Importantly, it’s still holding firm above $2,000.
This rally correlated almost perfectly with the rally in 10-year Treasury notes that occurred at the same time. Treasury note rates plunged from 5.00% on Oct. 19 to 4.17% as of today. That 83-basis point drop may seem small but it’s not.
That’s like an earthquake in the world of Treasury notes. As explained below, market signs indicate that these dual rallies and close correlations will continue for months to come.
This dual rally gives investors a double-barreled opportunity to make huge gains.
DVO1: A Quirk of Bond Math
As interest rates drop, the market value of Treasury notes goes up. That’s bond math 101. Yet there’s a quirk in the bond math that many investors (and even financial advisers) don’t appreciate.
When interest rates drop, bond prices go up. But the rate at which they go up relative to each drop in rates (measured in basis points or 0.01%) isn’t constant.
The dollar value of the capital gain for each basis point drop in rates rises as interest rates hit lower levels. (The technical name for this is DVO1 for “dollar value of one basis point.” You don’t need to be expert on this; it’s just useful to understand the concept).
Put differently, if interest rates drop from 7.0% to 6.5%, notes have a capital gain. If rates drop from 4.0% to 3.5%, they also have a capital gain. In both cases, the rate drop is 0.50%. But the capital gain in the second case is materially larger than in the first case.
Right now, we’re in that zone where rates are low and going lower, which means the capital gains are getting larger. That’s a big win for investors on a security with almost no credit risk.
What Explains the Gold Rally?
What accounts for the rally in gold prices? There are numerous factors that affect the gold price, but certain factors dominate at certain times. Right now, the key factor is interest rates. Rates are going down at a rapid pace and gold is going up in a kind of synchronicity. Why?
The simplest explanation for the correlation is that Treasury notes and gold are both high-quality assets that compete for investor allocations. Gold does not have a yield (although it can produce significant capital gains).
When yields on Treasuries drop, the zero yield on gold is relatively more attractive compared with the note yield and gold prices start to rally.
The key questions for investors are: Will rates continue to drop? And will gold continue to rally in sync with falling rates?
To forecast rates, we have to look at economic fundamentals. (By the way, the Federal Reserve is almost irrelevant for this purpose. The Fed controls the short end of the yield curve only and has almost no impact on longer-term rates including the 10-year Treasury note rate we are considering here.)
One conundrum of recent U.S. economic performance is that GDP has remained robust while signs of a recession and possible a financial crisis keep accumulating.
The Trend Isn’t the Economy’s Friend
U.S. GDP was 2.2% in the first quarter of 2023, 2.1% in the second quarter and a strong 4.9% in the third quarter. The best estimate for fourth-quarter growth from the Atlanta Fed is currently 1.2%, a substantial drop from the third quarter.
If that Q4 figure holds, growth for the entire year of 2023 will come in around 2.5%. That’s not too shabby, and it’s slightly better than the 2.2% average annual growth from 2009–2019 in the 10-year period between the global financial crisis and the pandemic.
In any case, it’s a far cry from a recession.
Still, a focus on full-year growth of around 2.5% ignores the trend. When growth goes from 4.9% in the third quarter to 1.2% in the fourth quarter, something extreme happened. It’s almost certainly the case that consumers slammed on the brakes in October.
Recession signs are real and growing worse. These include credit contraction, rising bad debts, increasing jobless claims, collapsing commercial real estate markets, contracting world trade, inverted yield curves and many other reliable technical indicators.
How can the economy be headed into recession after such strong growth recently?
The Credit Crunch Reckoning Begins
The riddle is solved by the fact that the economy has been propped up by the consumer. That explains the growth. But the consumer has been on a non-sustainable path. That explains the warning signs.
The consumer came out of the pandemic with a head of steam provided by handouts from Trump ($1,800 per adult), and Biden (also about $1,400 per adult) between April 2020 and March 2021. That was supplemented by $900 billion of Paycheck Protection Program loans, which were forgiven one year later.
Student loan payments were suspended from 2020–2023. The Federal Reserve held interest rates at zero from 2020–2022. Then the misnamed Inflation Reduction Act of August 2022 handed $1 trillion of taxpayer money to Green New Scam businesses and other pet projects.
With that money, Americans were able to pay down credit card balances and build up savings. It was a powerful double-dose of fiscal and monetary stimulus. Much of this operates with a lag so the growth momentum carried over into 2023.
Now it’s all gone. Short-term interest rates are over 5%. Mortgage rates are over 7%. Student loan repayments have started again. There are no more pandemic handouts. Americans’ savings are depleted, and their credit cards are tapped out.
Now the reckoning begins. In fact, the recession may already be here.
Bad Omens
Interest rates do not typically peak at the start of a recession; they peak somewhat after the recession begins. Businesses see revenues decline and turn to lines of credit to help with cash flow.
Only later, when unemployment goes up and credit losses accumulate, do banks rein in credit and then interest rates start to decline. We may already be at that stage. The fact that interest rates are already in sharp decline suggests the recession has already begun.
The importance of this for investors is that interest rate declines have much further to go (probably down to the level of 2% or lower over the next six months), which means gold prices have further to rise (perhaps to the $2,300 per ounce level or higher).
With both trends in place and a positive feedback loop between them, this is a once-in-a-decade opportunity for investors.
It really doesn’t get much better than that!
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[Markets]
: Krispy Kreme has launched in Paris — and is already in trouble with the mayor’s office
The doughnut seller's advertising campaign attracted backlash from the Mayor's office
Published:12/8/2023 8:57:41 AM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Reverses Higher On Strong Jobs Report; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings
The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed Friday on a stronger-than-expected November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings.
Published:12/8/2023 8:57:41 AM
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[Markets]
Stocks Fall, Yields Rise. The Labor Market Is Still Strong.
Stocks were slipping at Friday’s open after data showed that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 26 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.
Published:12/8/2023 8:44:30 AM
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[Markets]
MarketWatch Live: U.S. stock-market futures retreat after November jobs data
MarketWatch Live: U.S. stock-market futures retreat after November jobs data
Published:12/8/2023 8:37:25 AM
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[Markets]
Stock Futures Recover. Keep an Eye on the Open.
Stocks pared some of their losses right before opening bell on Friday after traders digested details in the November jobs report. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% versus the 0.4% loss seen around 8:30 am Eastern time.
Published:12/8/2023 8:24:24 AM
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[Markets]
Bill Burr: Liberals Are "F**king Stupid" To Have Turned Trump Into A Martyr
Bill Burr: Liberals Are "F**king Stupid" To Have Turned Trump Into A Martyr
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,
Comedian Bill Burr told talk show host Jimmy Kimmel that liberals are “fucking stupid” to have turned Trump into a martyr and that “he’s coming back” for revenge.
Burr made the comments in the context of saying how he’d teach his kids about narcissists and sociopaths.
“If you wanna see a great case on narcissism, liberals are so fucking stupid the way they handled Trump – you should shut up!” said Burr, adding “he’s a narcissist – neutral energy – neutral.”
Kimmel, who had one of the most severe cases of Trump derangement syndrome for years, wondered if the Donald would “go away” if leftists ignored him.
Burr suggested that Trump was fading away until “you idiot liberals…indicted him and now he’s a martyr,” adding, “He’s coming back, Jimmy! He’s coming back! It’s gonna be great for comedy – he’s coming back!”
The comedian went on to assert that he wanted to vote for someone in their 40’s for president who would have to “live with their decisions.”
“With any luck, they’ll both die of natural causes before the election and maybe you could get somebody that still has something to live for,” said Burr, referring to Biden and Trump.
Kimmel then tried to move the show on quickly while Burr exclaimed, “Wait a minute!”
Maybe Burr should give the same advice to his own wife, who very much appears to be suffering from her own clinical case of Trump derangement syndrome too.
* * *
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[Markets]
Jobs report surprise shows solid November hires as unemployment eases to 3.7%
The U.S. labor market continues to confound Wall Street as employers added nearly 200,000 jobs last month, taking the unemployment rate down to 3.7%.
Published:12/8/2023 8:02:59 AM
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[Markets]
Stock market news today: US futures fall after surprise drop in US unemployment
The November jobs report released Friday will be a key test for the stock market.
Published:12/8/2023 7:54:31 AM
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[Markets]
U.S. unemployment rate falls to 3.7% as economy adds 199,000 jobs in November
U.S. unemployment rate falls to 3.7% as economy adds 199,000 jobs in November
Published:12/8/2023 7:48:39 AM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures Fall On Strong Jobs Report; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings
Dow Jones futures fell Friday morning on a stronger-than-expected November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings.
Published:12/8/2023 7:48:39 AM
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[Markets]
UK Antitrust Watchdog Examines Microsoft's Partnership With OpenAI
UK Antitrust Watchdog Examines Microsoft's Partnership With OpenAI
Microsoft and OpenAI's multibillion-dollar partnership is under scrutiny from the UK's Competition and Markets Authority over potential competition concerns.
In a statement Friday, CMA said it's considering whether Microsoft's partnership with ChatGPT-creator OpenAI is effectively a merger. It said it had begun an "information gathering process," which typically comes before an investigation.
"There have recently been a number of developments in the governance of OpenAI, some of which involved Microsoft. In light of these developments, the CMA is now issuing an ITC [Invitation to Comment] to determine whether the Microsoft / OpenAI partnership, including recent developments, has resulted in a relevant merger situation and, if so, the potential impact on competition," CMA said.
Last month, Sam Altman, founder of OpenAI, was abruptly terminated by the company's board. However, he rejoined the company a week later following a threatened mass exodus by most staff. This incident led to a shakeup of the board, resulting in Microsoft, which owns a 49% share in OpenAI, gaining one board member seat.
CMA also said the pace of AI technology is "unrivaled in economic history" and that conversational generative artificial intelligence chatbots like OpenAI's ChatGPT or Elon Musk's xAI's Grok represent a "pivotal moment in the development of this transformative technology."
"The invitation to comment is the first part of the CMA's information gathering process and comes in advance of launching any phase 1 investigation, which would only happen once the CMA has received the information it needs from the partnership parties," Sorcha O'Carroll, senior director for mergers at the CMA, said in a statement.
Microsoft President and Vice Chair Brad Smith responded to the CMA news, telling The Wall Street Journal:
"Since 2019, we've forged a partnership with OpenAI that has fostered more AI innovation and competition, while preserving independence for both companies. The only thing that has changed is that Microsoft will now have a non-voting observer on OpenAI's board, which is very different from an acquisition."
CMA has investigated Microsoft before. Earlier this year, it blocked the takeover of Activision Blizzard until Microsoft changed the deal to sell cloud gaming rights outside Europe to Ubisoft.
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Imminent Jobs Report ; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings
Dow Jones futures fell Friday morning ahead of the imminent November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings.
Published:12/8/2023 7:08:18 AM
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[Markets]
Honeywell to buy Carrier's security unit for $4.95 billion; Carrier shares up 5%
Honeywell to buy Carrier's security unit for $4.95 billion; Carrier shares up 5%
Published:12/8/2023 6:47:27 AM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures: Jobs Report Due With Stocks Near 2023 Highs; Tesla China Sales Bounce
The major indexes are near 2023 highs, but the November jobs report is on tap. Tesla China sales bounced last month but exports slumped.
Published:12/8/2023 6:26:31 AM
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[Markets]
Top Banking Watchdog Warns Of 'Buy Now, Pay Later' Risks Amid Explosion In Use
Top Banking Watchdog Warns Of 'Buy Now, Pay Later' Risks Amid Explosion In Use
The US Office of the Comptroller of the Currency - the powerful federal banking regulator - issued guidance to banks and federal savings associations to address the rising risks surrounding the buy now, pay later (BNPL) craze sweeping across consumers.
BNPL allows consumers to spend money they don't have over several interest-free installments, which are generally unreported to credit bureaus. The overuse and poor understanding of BNPL terms can be disastrous for consumers and lead to overindebtedness.
OCC's guidance to banks stated they "should maintain underwriting, repayment terms, pricing, and safeguards that minimize adverse customer outcomes and should ensure that marketing materials and disclosures are clear and conspicuous."
"As the buy-now-pay-later market grows and we enter the holiday shopping season, the guidance confirms our expectation that OCC-supervised institutions offering these products do so in a responsible manner," Acting Comptroller Michael J. Hsu wrote in a statement.
OCC's guidance to banks to safeguard consumers comes as BNPL usage during Black Friday and Cyber Monday surged to record highs.
According to the Bank for International Settlements, BNPL is mainly used by folks with low income, lacking education, and under 35.
BIS warned: "There is evidence from the United States that BNPL users are particularly risky."
There are many hidden risks of using BNPL, such as missing a payment, which could trigger high fees and interest.
The higher use of BNPL is no surprise, considering 'Bidenomics' has failed the working poor.
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[Markets]
The Moneyist: ‘We went through all of my 401(k) investments’: I lost my job, then my home. Do I have any claim to my wife’s $200,000 inheritance?
“I asked my wife to help by getting a job, but that did not happen.”
Published:12/8/2023 6:19:56 AM
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[Markets]
No more coffee mugs! Here are the gifts teachers say they want or need.
l asked educators about their holiday wishes. Gift cards and school supplies topped the list, along with handwritten notes and other simple acts of appreciation.
Published:12/8/2023 6:07:40 AM
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[Markets]
U.K. regulator to probe whether Microsoft has control over OpenAI
U.K. regulator to probe whether Microsoft has control over OpenAI
Published:12/8/2023 6:01:11 AM
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[Markets]
Jobs, Inflation, and Fed Decision. Why the Santa Rally Is at Stake.
The important data ahead, Broadcom sees generative AI demand accelerating, White House threatens to seize drug patents, Lululemon Athletica sees slowing sales growth, and other news to start your day.
Published:12/8/2023 5:46:58 AM
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[Markets]
Labor market hiring is slower but healthy with strength in a few key sectors
The final stretch of 2023 is shaping up to be the slowest hiring period in years for the U.S. labor market, as employers tighten their belts after years of explosive growth following the job losses of the coronavirus pandemic.
Published:12/8/2023 5:06:29 AM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures Rise: AI-Fueled AMD Leads 4 Tech Giants Into Buy Zones; Jobs Report Due
AMD and Google jumped on AI optimism, leading Thursday's market rally. Broadcom and Lululemon headlined overnight earnings.
Published:12/8/2023 4:48:10 AM
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[Markets]
These Are The 10 Most (And Least) Polluted Cities In The EU
These Are The 10 Most (And Least) Polluted Cities In The EU
The Dubai conference on climate change, or COP28, is currently underway, running from November 30 to December 12, 2023.
The international conference will bring together representatives from countries that are signatories to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.
One of the main objectives of COP28 is to continue the development of energy transition and accelerate the phase-out of fossil fuels, major sources of greenhouse gasses and air pollutants. Beyond their impact on the climate, fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and gas also pose significant pollution problems; for example, their combustion emits fine particles (PM2.5).
According to the World Health Organization (WHO), prolonged exposure to these particles is likely to create or worsen various health problems, such as high blood pressure or diabetes. While the WHO has recommended a maximum level of five micrograms of PM2.5 per cubic meter of air for prolonged exposure since 2021, the vast majority of cities in the European Union far exceed this threshold.
As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the infographic below, based on data from the European Environment Agency compiled by Toute l’Europe, the most polluted city with PM2.5 in the EU in 2021-2022 was Slavonski Brod, Croatia, where the average was nearly six times the recommended maximum level, or 28 µg/m³.
Moreover, many of the cities most affected by PM2.5 are located in Poland, a country still heavily dependent on coal, which emits a high amount of fine particles when burned.
In Italy, the Po Valley, due to its geography and concentration of industrial activities, remains one of the most polluted regions in Europe by fine particles, leading to the presence of two Italian cities at the top of the list.
You will find more infographics at Statista
On the other end of the spectrum, based on data from the European Environment Agency compiled by the website Toute l’Europe, ten cities in Europe remained below the recommended level of fine particles by the WHO.
You will find more infographics at Statista
In 2021-2022, the least polluted European city in the study was Faro, Portugal, where the average concentration of PM2.5 in the air was only 3.7 µg/m³. Next were two Swedish cities, Umeå (3.9 µg/m³) and Uppsala (4 µg/m³).
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[Markets]
Where do Americans live after 85? Look inside the homes of 11 seniors
An analysis of the U.S. census data found less than 10 percent of people aged 85 and older live in nursing homes. See what 11 seniors say about where they chose to live as they age.
Published:12/8/2023 4:08:16 AM
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[Markets]
Welsh Teens Left Behind As UK Education Gap Widens
Welsh Teens Left Behind As UK Education Gap Widens
Welsh students are falling further behind their peers in the United Kingdom at school, according to the newly released 2022 results of the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) by the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD).
The national averages for performance across maths, science and reading were lower in Wales than in England, Scotland and Northern Ireland, highlighting a regional education gap that persists in the UK.
As Statista's Anna Fleck reports, Wales was also the only country of the four to drop below the OECD averages, which were calculated based on the test results of 690,000 students across 81 countries and economies. And it seems that this gap is getting wider: Where the national scores dropped in all three core subjects across the four UK regions, the greatest declines for each subject were in Wales.
You will find more infographics at Statista
As this chart shows, England achieved the highest scores for maths, science and reading.
Scotland performed second-best for reading, while Northern Ireland was second runner for science.
Students performed the worst in maths in each UK country in 2022 and it was also the subject with the greatest fall in attainment per country since 2018. This mirrors a global trend, as the OECD nations analysed showed an average decline of 15 points in maths since 2018.
According to the OECD, a change of 20 points equates to approximately a full year of education. This means that since the last PISA exams in 2018, students in Wales performed on average as if they were a full year behind in maths, just under a year behind in reading and three-quarters of a year behind in science.
Plaid Cymru’s education spokesperson, Heledd Fychan MS, has cited youth poverty rates leading to? high pupil absenteeism, school budget deficits and a recruitment crisis in the education sector among the reasons for the lower results.
“Despite the hard work and dedication of an overstretched workforce, the pupil attainment gap is widening and we cannot ignore the link between poverty and [Tuesday’s] disappointing results”, she said.
In the OECD report, other reasons for the observed declines across many OECD countries include interruptions from school closures during the Covid-19 pandemic as well as the longer-term issues of teaching quality and lack of resources.
Since the 2022 PISA tests were taken, Wales has already started rolling out a new Curriculum for Wales.
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[Markets]
Stellantis plans to cut jobs at U.S. jeep plants
Stellantis plans to cut jobs at U.S. jeep plants
Published:12/8/2023 3:33:43 AM
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[Markets]
LIVE: FTSE moves higher ahead of crucial US job data release
Stocks rose as investors await US jobs data, with employment figures closely watched as an indicator of potential moves by the central bank on interest rates.
Published:12/8/2023 2:53:47 AM
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[Markets]
The Global Number Of New HIV Infections Is Falling, But...
The Global Number Of New HIV Infections Is Falling, But...
There were an estimated 1.3 million new HIV infections in 2022, according to UNAIDS latest report.
While still too high, this figure is the lowest in decades, with declines particularly strong in regions with the highest HIV burdens.
As Statista's Anna Fleck shows in the following chart, Eastern and southern Africa have seen a fall of 57 percent of new HIV infections between 2010 and 2022.
However, the region still has the highest number of new cases annually, with 500,000 recorded new infections in 2022.
You will find more infographics at Statista
Asia and the Pacific had the second highest number of new cases at 300,000 worldwide, yet also saw a substantial fall, this time of -14 percent, over the 12 year period.
Three regions have seen increases in the number of HIV infections in that time frame:
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Latin America (+8 percent),
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Eastern Europe and central Asia (+49 percent),
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and the Middle East and North Africa (+61 percent).
According to the report, the biggest decreases in numbers of new infections were among children (aged 0-14 years) and young people (aged 15-24 years).
This is partly due to fewer new HIV infections in women and higher coverage of treatment among people living with HIV.
December 1 marked World AIDS Day.
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[Markets]
Airbus gets $2.7 billion order from Cathay Pacific for six A350F aircraft
Airbus gets $2.7 billion order from Cathay Pacific for six A350F aircraft
Published:12/8/2023 1:31:05 AM
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[Markets]
Stock market today: Asian shares are mostly higher ahead of a key US jobs report
Asian shares were mostly higher on Friday ahead of a U.S. government jobs report, after Wall Street rose Thursday to snap its first three-day losing streak since Halloween. U.S. futures were lower and oil prices gained more than $1. In Tokyo, the Nikkei 225 index shed 1.8% to 32,254.82, as investors speculated that the Bank of Japan may end its negative interest rate policy.
Published:12/7/2023 11:34:29 PM
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[Markets]
The "Why" Is Now Obvious
The "Why" Is Now Obvious
Authored by Albin Sadar via American Greatness,
The release of more video and cell phone tapes from January 6 by new House Speaker Mike Johnson shows further evidence of a setup by the Feds that their so-called insurrection was staged.
All sides will acknowledge the fact that then-Speaker Nancy Pelosi refused to have extra security on January 6.
However, there is a bigger question that no one, Left, Right or Center, seems to be asking:
Why?
Why wouldn’t Pelosi want to be sure that “Democracy was secure” so that Vice President Mike Pence could certify the Electoral College vote? Making sure that the Capitol was safe and sound would mean that Joe Biden’s presidency would be assured. After all, the election of 2020 was “the most secure in American history,” so why wouldn’t you want that obvious fact certified and rubber-stamped by Congress?
The only obvious answer to why Pelosi wanted to guarantee a riotous breach of the Capitol was what she knew would be the actual results of the Electoral College vote if the process were allowed to run its course. Senators Ted Cruz and Josh Hawley, among others, had previously made noise about challenging election results in several swing states. And despite what many have debated, there was tangible potential for Pence to delay the certification for a couple of weeks to look into the evidence of significant vote-tampering and fraud.
How do we know that the vice president had the authority to stop the certification? Well, because the ability for the position of vice president to do just that was changed by a vote of Congress relatively recently after the events of January 6. Why would you change something that did not need to be changed?
So, at the time, Pelosi knew that a halt in the proceedings would lead to an investigation. And an investigation would lead to those questions being covered, albeit reluctantly, by the entire mainstream media. What actually transpired over the three additional days of counting in the 2020 Election would be exposed. And the narrative of the most secure election in American history would crumble in front of the eyes of everybody in this country and across the globe.
To this day, then, as the new Speaker takes a serious look at the events of January 6 and as America and the world itself can see exposed in the recently-released video evidence, we must address what happened that particular day – specifically, the reason that the crowds of tens of thousands had gathered. The patriots in Washington, D.C. showed up to highlight one very important message: “Stop the Steal.”
Pelosi’s action – as well as inaction – diverted attention from that message; she refocused our sights on the word “insurrection” in order to keep President Donald Trump from returning to the White House as a result of the true, states’ election totals of 2020. And the Left continues nonstop that charade in order to keep Trump from the White House in 2024.
With each passing day, it is becoming increasingly apparent that the two biggest blemishes recently on America as a great and free nation are the stolen presidential election of 2020, and the subsequent incarceration of those patriots who exercised their guaranteed First Amendment right to free speech to contest it. The election tampering advanced the Left’s directive of “fundamental transformation” of the country, which included imprisonment without bail or trial of those with whom the tyrannical administration disagreed.
So, what next?
Unless the country itself can see that the narrative presented by the Left regarding January 6, 2021, was a smoke screen for the real insurrection of November 3, 2020, America will need to brace itself for a repeat performance of that nefarious action on November 5, 2024.
* * *
Albin Sadar is author of Obvious: Seeing the Evil That’s in Plain Sight and Doing Something About It, as well as the children’s book collection, Hamster Holmes: Box of Mysteries.
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[Markets]
What Are The Best Selling Video Game Franchises In The US?
What Are The Best Selling Video Game Franchises In The US?
Fortnite, Minecraft, Call of Duty, Super Mario or Grand Theft Auto: Even many non-gamers recognize at least some of these highly successful titles and franchises, be it by name or their cultural impact.
As Statista's Florian Zandt details below, when viewed through an economic lens, there are two game series that have dominated the sales charts in the United States for the past decade.
The first and overall leader in terms of total entries in the top 10 selling games in the U.S. between 2013 and 2022 according to market analysts at NPD Group is Call of Duty. The franchise has been present among the top sellers with 11 individual games since 2013, snagging the top spot every single year apart from two instances.
You will find more infographics at Statista
In 2018, Red Dead Redemption 2 trumped Call of Duty: Black Ops 4, while Grand Theft Auto V rushed to the top in 2013, followed by Call of Duty: Ghosts.
It's worth noting that while Call of Duty turned out to be a cash cow for its parent company, this success can't overshadow that Activision Blizzard, which is now owned by Microsoft, was at the center of several scandals surrounding alleged toxic workplace culture and sexual harassment over the past years.
The second and third spots are indicative of U.S. Americans' love for all things sports.
The American Football simulation Madden was represented in the top 10 every single year, while Take-Two's NBA 2K series dropped out of the ranking of the best-selling games in the U.S. starting with NBA 2K21.
Grand Theft Auto V remains a singularity in this ranking, though. While most other games managed to enter the top 10 with new franchise installments, Rockstar Games achieved this feat for five years with a single game.
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[Markets]
Japan's First-Ever Conviction For Illegal Organ Trafficking Shines Light On Forced Organ Harvesting
Japan's First-Ever Conviction For Illegal Organ Trafficking Shines Light On Forced Organ Harvesting
Authored by Bin Zhao and Sean Tseng via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
In a landmark ruling, a Japanese court has convicted a non-profit executive of facilitating illegal overseas organ transplants for Japanese citizens.
 Doctors carrying organs for transplant surgery at a hospital in Henan Province, China, on Aug. 16, 2012. (Screenshot/Sohu.com)
On Nov. 28, the Tokyo District Court sentenced 63-year-old Hiromichi Kikuchi, chairman of the Association for Patients of Intractable Diseases, a non-profit organization. Kikuchi received an eight-month prison term and a fine of 1 million yen (around $6,800) for arranging organ transplants abroad for two Japanese citizens without government approval. His organization, which has been working with transplant patients for over fifteen years, is now under scrutiny.
The case, the first of its kind in Japan, has prompted widespread media coverage and heightened concerns over illegal organ transplants.
Mr. Kikuchi's conviction shows Japan's efforts to crack down on organ trafficking and forced organ harvesting. The transplants that led to his arrest took place in Belarus in 2022. However, the case has drawn attention to the grim reality of forced organ harvesting in China, as Mr. Kikuchi admitted that the vast majority of the transplants he has orchestrated since 2007 involved organs from China.
This verdict has sparked intense public debate in Japan, where organ harvesting is already a hotly contested topic because of widespread ethical reservations about the source of organs for transplant.
Forced Organ Harvesting
For years, investigations and reports have highlighted the practice of forced organ harvesting in China's major hospitals, with substantial evidence supporting the claims.
On June 25, 2022, The Epoch Times Japanese edition published an exclusive interview with Ushio Sugawara, a former member of Japan's largest "Yakuza" crime syndicate, Yamaguchi-gumi.
Mr. Sugawara, who left the underworld in 2015 to become an economic commentator, recalled an incident from 2007. At that time, he was involved in a liver transplant for a friend's brother, arranged through an intermediary, and costing about $220,000. The liver transplant took place at Beijing's Armed Police General Hospital.
After arriving in China, Mr. Sugawara visited his friend's brother at the hospital the day before the scheduled surgery.
He described seeing the donor, a 21-year-old Falun Gong practitioner labeled a "terrorist" and sentenced to death, unconscious and medicated, with bandages on his hands and feet. The hospital staff explained that the severing of tendons in the donor's hands and feet was to prevent escape and ensure the quality of the organs.
The transplant ultimately failed, resulting in the deaths of both the recipient and the donor.
After the report on forced organ harvesting practices by The Epoch Times Japan, several prominent Japanese media outlets, including Yomiuri Shimbun, Japan's largest newspaper, launched investigations into Japanese intermediaries in overseas organ transplants and found evidence against the Association for Patients of Intractable Diseases and Mr. Kikuchi.
The non-profit, according to its website, has been connecting Japanese patients with overseas hospitals, primarily in China, for organ transplants since 2003.
This timeline coincides with when Chinese hospitals began aggressively marketing organ transplants to foreign nationals.
Canadian human rights lawyer David Matas and the late David Kilgour, a former Canadian cabinet minister, have long investigated the Chinese Communist Party's (CCP's) organ transplant practices. Their 2006 report, which was expanded into the book "Bloody Harvest," raised suspicions that the CCP was illicitly harvesting organs and particularly targeting Falun Gong practitioners.
In 2016, Mr. Matas, together with Kilgour and London-based investigative journalist Ethan Gutmann, published "Bloody Harvest/The Slaughter: An Update." The 680-page report estimated that China was conducting 60,000 to 100,000 transplant surgeries annually.
'Organ Extractions for Profit'
On Oct. 10, the Tokyo District Court conducted its first hearing in the widely-publicized Kikuchi case. The defendant was charged with brokering organ transplant operations without government permission for two patients, in violation of Japan's organ transplant law.
Presiding Judge Baba Yoshiro said Mr. Kikuchi recruited patients for overseas organ transplants and expedited organ transplant surgeries within a matter of a few months. Japan's organ transplant law outlaws the sale of human organs and profiting through intermediaries.
In a startling admission, Mr. Kikuchi revealed that over the past two decades, his organization had facilitated about 170 transplants, with 90 percent of patients receiving transplants in Chinese hospitals. He highlighted the cost-effectiveness of the operations, noting that prices in China were significantly lower than in the United States. Following the COVID-19 pandemic and ensuing travel restrictions, Mr. Kikuchi shifted his focus to Eastern Europe and Central Asia.
Mr. Kikuchi also outlined the costs involved: 20 million yen (approximately $136,000) for a kidney, 30 million yen (around $204,000) for a liver, 30–40 million yen ($204,000–$272,000) for a heart, and 40–50 million yen ($272,000–$340,000) for lungs. These figures included surgery, travel, and intermediary fees.
On Nov. 28, the court handed down its final verdict: Mr. Kikuchi was sentenced to eight months in prison and fined 1 million yen (about $6,778).
The decision was widely discussed online, with some Japanese netizens expressing outrage: "This group's inhumane acts, forcibly extracting organs from young individuals in China, are utterly deplorable," read one post.
Another post criticized the leniency of the sentence: "Kikuchi is essentially an accomplice to murder; this punishment is insufficient."
Initially, Mr. Kikuchi had maintained his innocence, claiming his actions "saved hundreds of lives." However, Hiroaki Maruyama, a representative for the Stop Medical Genocide (SMG) Network, vehemently disagreed with this perspective.
In an interview with The Epoch Times, Mr. Maruyama said the "Chinese hospitals' organ extractions from living persons for profit" contrasted with the principles of medical ethics. Mr. Kikuchi, by engaging in these activities, not only abetted them but also implicated many Japanese patients unaware of the truth, he said.
Mr. Maruyama emphasized that Mr. Kikuchi's arrest and conviction, along with the media coverage surrounding it, shed light on a network of illegal intermediaries tied to the global organ black market, particularly CCP's large-scale forced organ harvesting.
These revelations represent just the surface of a much darker reality, he stressed. He called for legislation preventing Japanese citizens from seeking organ transplants in countries like China, which are known for human rights violations.
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[Markets]
Illinois Bill Would Require Blood Donors To Disclose COVID Vaccination Status
Illinois Bill Would Require Blood Donors To Disclose COVID Vaccination Status
Authored by Megan Redshaw via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
New legislation in Illinois would allow individuals receiving blood donations to know whether they’re receiving blood from an individual vaccinated with a COVID-19 vaccine or another messenger RNA (mRNA) vaccine.
 (hxdbzxy/Shutterstock)
Bill HB4243, introduced on Nov. 29 by Illinois state Rep. Jed Davis, amends the Illinois Clinical Laboratory and Blood Bank Act and would require blood banks to test donated blood for evidence of COVID-19 vaccines and other mRNA components, including lipid nanoparticles and spike protein—and requires a blood donor to disclose during each donor screening process whether they have received a COVID-19 vaccine or any other mRNA vaccine during their lifetime.
Additionally, the bill imposes labeling requirements for blood or blood components that test positive for evidence of a COVID-19 vaccine or other mRNA vaccine component or were obtained from a donor who received a COVID-19 vaccine or other mRNA vaccine.
“A constituent approached me concerned about her son's upcoming surgery. What if he needed a blood transfusion with the long-term impacts concerning mRNA vaccines unknown? As a parent myself, her concern and corresponding question feel warranted,” Mr. Davis told The Epoch Times in an email.
“This conversation was the catalyst for my bill delineating blood donations and mRNA vaccines. We disclose medical information all the time with providers, so why not our vaccine history? It's an easy ask, and I'm proud to sponsor this bill.”
Once a bill is introduced in Illinois, it is read and referred to the Rules Committee and will then be assigned to a substantive committee. For elected officials like Mr. Davis, he believes that part of his job is to translate the concerns or ideas of constituents into legislation when applicable—and that every bill, including HB4243, originated from someone walking through his office door. “Without hesitation, helping people is such a blessing and honor,” he said.
Concerned about blood transfusions from people vaccinated against COVID-19, a Republican lawmaker in Montana introduced a bill earlier this year that would have made it a misdemeanor offense for anyone who received a COVID-19 vaccine to donate tissue or blood. However, the bill was tabled quickly in a 19 to 1 vote.
Unlike the bill introduced in Montana, HB4243 does not criminalize individuals who donate blood if they’ve received a COVID-19 vaccine. It merely allows people receiving blood products to know whether the blood they’re receiving came from a vaccinated individual and requires blood blanks to add this information to product labels so that patients can make informed decisions.
According to the Red Cross, there is no waiting period for those who received a COVID-19 vaccine—as long as they are symptom-free and feel well at the time of donation. If an individual doesn’t know which vaccine they received, they must wait two weeks to donate blood.
The Association for the Advancement of Blood & Biotherapies, America’s Blood Centers, and the American Red Cross do not believe COVID-19 vaccines pose a risk to patients receiving blood transfusions.
In a joint statement issued on Jan. 26, the three organizations said there is no “scientific evidence that demonstrates adverse outcomes from the transfusions of blood products collected from vaccinated donors and, therefore, no medical reason to distinguish or separate blood donations from individuals who have received a COVID-19 vaccination.”
The statement further reads that the U.S. Food and Drug Administration (FDA), on multiple occasions, has confirmed that there is no evidence to support concerns about the safety of blood donated by vaccinated individuals. However, the FDA has not provided data showing it is safe to receive blood donated from vaccinated individuals, and many studies have found mRNA from COVID-19 vaccines circulating in the blood or plasma of recently vaccinated individuals.
A 2022 study published in Biomedicines found synthetic mRNA in Pfizer’s COVID-19 vaccine persists in the blood of vaccinated individuals for at least two weeks post-vaccination.
A January study published in the Journal of Pathology, Microbiology, and Immunology found full-length or traces of SARS-CoV-2 spike mRNA vaccine sequences from both Pfizer and Moderna in the blood of some vaccinated individuals up to 28?days after COVID-19 vaccination.
“We expect that vaccine mRNA detected in plasma is contained within LNPs [lipid nanoparticles] and that the LNPs in plasma have been slowly released from the injection site either directly to the blood or through the lymph system,” the authors wrote.
In a January study in Circulation, researchers found persistently elevated circulating levels of full-length spike protein in the blood of adolescents and young adults who developed myocarditis following COVID-19 vaccination.
A 2022 study in Clinical Infectious Diseases found circulating S1 antigens from the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein in the plasma of participants vaccinated with Moderna’s COVID-19 vaccine. Antigens are the weakened or inactive parts of a particular organism—in this case, the spike protein—that triggers an immune response within the body. Researchers also confirmed that the detected S1 antigens resulted from vaccination and not natural infection.
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[Markets]
Hunter Biden, president's son, indicted on 9 tax charges
Hunter Biden, president's son, indicted on 9 tax charges
Published:12/7/2023 8:32:56 PM
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[Markets]
Starlink Completes "Successful" Military Test Deep In Arctic
Starlink Completes "Successful" Military Test Deep In Arctic
The one thing progressive corporate media and the radical left in the White House cannot stand is Elon Musk deepening his ties with the Department of Defense from rocket launches to providing the military with high-speed internet beamed from low-Earth orbit.
According to Bloomberg, Musk's satellite internet service called "Starlink" successfully completed a nine-month pilot test in the harsh, snowy environment in the Arctic.
Brian Beal, principal engineer with the Air Force Research Laboratory's Integrated Capabilities Directorate, stated that StarLink was a "reliable and high-performance communications system in the Arctic, including on-the-move applications."
Beal said the test ended in June and evaluated Starlink's usefulness for high-speed internet in remote areas that can be set up in minutes.
"We tested in some very high winds and very cold temperatures," he said, adding, "That all went smoothly though. Once we got the terminals mounted securely to withstand high winds, they worked great with no issues."
Musk has seen months of success with Starlink. The Pentagon granted Starlink a contract to support Ukraine in June and, in late September, awarded Starlink an additional $70 million contract for the Starshield project.
Reports indicate Starlink is preparing for an IPO in 2024. Musk recently announced, "Excited to announce that @SpaceX @Starlink has achieved breakeven cash flow!"
In September, Tesla blogger Sawyer Merritt posted a graph on X showing Starlink's onboarding of new customers has been parabolic since June 2022. The service now has more than 2 million users worldwide.
Meanwhile, SpaceX currently has a $175 billion valuation. It has delivered 80% of all Earth's payload mass to orbit this year.
Even Jeff Bezos hired Musk for rocket launches as his space company, Blue Origin, has been hit with 'frustrating delays' including a rocket engine explosion during a routine test earlier this year.
Democrats are furious with Musk's success and have attempted to weaponize federal agencies to hinder the latest Starship launch.
Musk is becoming the 'uncancellable billionaire.'
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[Markets]
Biden Funding Woke Theater Arts Groups Under Counterterrorism Grants
Biden Funding Woke Theater Arts Groups Under Counterterrorism Grants
Authored by James Varney via RealClear Wire,
Founded in 2020 in the aftermath of the George Floyd protests, the Black Legacy Project describes itself as “a musical celebration of black history to advance racial solidarity, equity and belonging.” It brings together artists of all backgrounds “to record present day interpretations of songs central to the Black American experience and compose originals relevant to the pressing calls for change of our time.”
A similar arts group, Nu Art Education Inc., an offshoot of the NorCal School for the Arts, says it is “following the theory of change that utilizing theater arts” can be “a tool to teach and practice conflict resolution in the classroom.”
While both outfits share a mission of using the arts to inspire social change, they have something else in common: counterterrorism. Or rather, both have received taxpayer grants through the Department of Homeland Security’s “Targeted Violence and Terrorism Prevention” (TVTP) program. Together, the two groups have received more than $1.4 million since the Biden administration doubled the program’s annual budget, to some $20 million per year.
Grants to arts cooperatives and educational initiatives strike some as odd for a department charged with protecting the United States -- including its southern border, now viewed by many as virtually open to illegal migrants. Against that backdrop, FBI Director Christopher Wray recently warned Congress of the heightened threat of terror in the U.S. at a time of wars raging on two continents with America involved on the sidelines.
On Tuesday, Wray told the Senate Judiciary Committee the "threat matrix" is "blinking red lights everywhere."
"The threat level has gone to a whole other level since Oct. 7," he said.
Given such concerns, Andrew Arthur of the Center for Immigration Studies, a critic of Biden policies, said the DHS grants are misplaced. "It’s kind of hard to see how all that is going to help stop terrorism,” he told RealClearInvestigations.
DHS declined to discuss the TVTP program, or answer questions about how competitive the grant process is or who makes final decisions on where the money will go.
The program has its roots in the Obama administration under the concept of “countering violent extremism” and has drawn criticism ever since from both left and right – albeit for different reasons. During the Trump administration, the leftist Brennan Center for Justice faulted the “anti-Muslim and xenophobic rhetoric and policies” in such programs, which “also target refugees, asylum seekers, and Black Lives Matter activists.”
The Brennan Center said “the reality is that these programs, which are based on junk science, have proven to be ineffective, discriminatory and divisive.”
That was then. Now, having doubled the program’s budget, the Biden administration is using the money to advance parts of its agenda not directly related to terrorism. Increasingly the DHS grants, like much larger ones at other departments, are part of the administration’s “whole of government” effort to promote “diversity, equity and inclusion” and quash what it considers misinformation.
While proclaiming that that the grants are designed for “local communities across the country to develop targeted violence and terrorism prevention programming in their communities,” the Department of Homeland Security also stresses its focus on DEI.
“Ensuring equity is a key priority of the TVTP Grant Program and 41 percent of this year’s grant recipients are devoted to underserved populations, compared to 25 percent last year,” the DHS website says, noting grants have gone to historically black colleges and universities, seven “Minority Serving Institutions (MSI),” a Native American group and another serving the LGBTQIA+ community.
The program uses keywords to note favored characteristics of approved grants. Ones used often include “raising societal awareness,” “bystander training,” and what advocates call “media literacy.”
“Media literacy involves the critical evaluation of media messages, as well as their authors and audiences, and it includes the ability to differentiate between original, evidence-based reporting and commentary or propaganda,” said Seth Ashley, a communications professor at Boise State University, which has received nearly $400,000.
But such anodyne-sounding definitions come at a time when censorship by government in tandem with news outlets and social media has stirred controversy and court challenges. Experts have sprouted in the fields of “misinformation” or “disinformation,” and their power to control what is published and shared on various tech platforms has grown.
One of the recipients of DHS funding for media literacy is the University of Rhode Island, which received $700,000 in TVTP grants in 2022. The money has helped pay for “Courageous Rhode Island” initiatives that involve online seminars and work with K-12 schools.
In one of Courageous R.I.’s starter seminars, URI professors Renee Hobbs and Pam Steager discuss warning signs for media consumers. The flags include sources that “attract audience attention by finding and promoting unexplained phenomena or coincidence that seems at odds with official narratives.”
In another, the professors warn of “contrarian ‘experts’ [that] increase visibility and status by exploiting journalistic norms of balance and neutrality to present a controversy that counters widely-accepted beliefs.”
The COVID-19 pandemic is often used as a case study in media literacy. Ashley co-authored an op-ed in the Idaho Capital Sun in 2021 warning of COVID “disinformation.” But the co-authors offered no concrete examples of what would earn that classification, and many of the doubts health officials and Big Tech worked diligently to erase then – on masks, lockdowns, the origin of the virus – have been vindicated by subsequent reporting and revelations.
“Doing your own research is fine, but it’s no substitute for the meticulous work of experts who are doing their best to learn everything they can about Covid-19 and are updating us when their knowledge grows and as situations change,” Ashley wrote.
Asked by RealClearInvestigations about the sort of collaboration between government actors and Big Tech companies exposed in the “Twitter Files” and other revelations, Ashley replied, “I don’t think recent events have changed the need to be vigilant about where or how we get information, but I do think the digital age has made that more difficult than ever.”
Some conservative critics see in the nebulous language of media literacy a clear agenda against outlets that could counter the message of Washington Democrats. They see the government using taxpayer money to get around First Amendment protections by paying third party groups to censor views it doesn’t approve.
“They are very careful in the words they use, and you rarely see them offer concrete examples of ‘misinformation,’” said Dan Schneider, vice president of the conservative Media Research Center. “But what the project is trying to do is get into the schools and divert people from conservative outlets and direct them to liberal outlets.”
Schneider has looked closely at the work being done in Rhode Island, as well as by other media watchdogs such as NewsGuard.
One of Courageous R.I.’s goals is combating “fear and hate that leads to violence,” but one participant in the group’s online workshops said that is a tenuous thesis. Nicole Solas, a Rhode Island parent who became a prominent critic of what she regarded as a leftward drift in public education there, took some Courageous R.I. courses online and clashed with Hobbs. Like critics at the Brennan Center, Solas said she saw no proof that “words in media cause people to commit violent acts,” and she said it was clear Courageous R.I. had conservative news in its crosshairs.
“They themselves are media – they write blogs,” Solas said. “They are promoting their own propaganda by saying someone or something else is propaganda so it’s not a real ‘conversation.’”
Hobbs disputed that characterization, insisting “listening” is a key component of the “Courageous Conversations” that Courageous R.I. seeks.
The “media literacy” advanced by TVTP grants also warns against outlets that do not perform “public interest journalism.” Ashley defines that as “journalism that aims to serve citizens by addressing issues of social importance and holding powerful actors accountable. It can be produced by anyone but usually comes from organizations with the resources and expertise necessary to gather and synthesize large amounts of information.”
Using preferred groups to set such parameters has been a hallmark of government grants like TVTP since the Obama administration, according to several people familiar with the process. The grants are not confined to DHS – the State Department, FEMA, the EPA, and other branches have similar programs – and critics agree the overall goal of such policies is to corral speech into preferred spaces and proscribe it from countering preferred narratives.
“They are using targeted funding to promote a buy-in to toeing the government line,” said Brian Cavanaugh, a former White House national security staffer in the Trump and Biden administrations who is now a senior vice president of American Global Strategies. “And here these have nothing to do with DHS’s core mission.”
Some of the grants appear to go to traditional organizations engaged in fighting terrorist threats. But most of the $70 million in grants issued since 2020 – $60 million of which flowed since Biden took office – reflect the administration’s approach to DEI initiatives more than any clear attempt to tackle potential threats, according to Mike Howell, director of the Oversight Program at the conservative Heritage Foundation. Howell said he has tracked federal “countering violent extremism” measures for almost a decade.
“This goes back to Obama where we saw the government shower these credentialed liberal outfits with a crap-ton of money,” he said. “Trump redirected it a bit, but not enough to kill it in its roots, so now it has cropped back up and gone full-woke under Biden.”
These include $878,000 to Michigan State University social workers who are running a project with the Drama Club on Rikers Island; nearly $1 million on esports (electronic sports or gaming); more than $500,000 to the Sexual Minority Youth Assistance League; and three grants to Columbia University Teachers’ College totaling more than $2.3 million, including classwork “to slow the manifestation of domestic radicalization and extremism that contributed to the Jan. 6 insurrection on the grounds of the U.S. Capitol.”
“The project will involve researching, developing and presenting stories,” one Teachers’ College grant says. “It also will include curating and co-creating educator stories of adapting to challenging situations, supporting the storytelling of educators who bring unifying narratives from their local communities, and leading the sharing of these stories.”
Teachers’ College officials did not respond to RCI’s request for comment.
In earlier iterations, much of the grant money would fund pet congressional projects, budget log-rolling that helped keep it popular on a bipartisan basis. But under Biden, Howell said, the grants have been folded into the “whole of society” philosophy that animates the administration’s efforts.
“These grants fund the left but it’s not harmless – they use these grants to predicate their own initiatives,” he said. “What they are doing is outsourcing research to groups they like, who reach the conclusions they want, and then the administration claims it is ‘acting on the belief of experts.’ This growth and maturation of outsourcing is one of the less noticed trends that got us into the mess we’re in now.”
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[Markets]
San Francisco Facing Deadliest Year Ever For Overdoses
San Francisco Facing Deadliest Year Ever For Overdoses
Authored by Eric Lundrum via American Greatness,
The far-left city of San Francisco is set to have its deadliest year on record in terms of drug overdoses, further emphasizing the coastal city’s struggles with rising crime, homelessness, and drug abuse.
According to the Washington Free Beacon, the California city recorded 692 accidental overdose deaths from January to October of 2023, as reported by the San Francisco Office of the Chief Medical Examiner last month.
By the end of the year, that total is expected to top 800, surpassing the previous record of 720 deaths in 2020.
The primary cause of overdose deaths in the city is fentanyl, which was responsible for 83% of drug-related deaths in the first 10 months of 2023.
Methamphetamine and cocaine were responsible for 51% and 46% of drug overdose deaths, respectively, in the same time period. To a lesser extent, some who overdoses have also used medicinal opioids and heroin.
The drug problem is just one of many crises facing San Francisco, many of which are driven by the city’s soft-on-crime approach.
Many prominent companies, from restaurants to retailers, have shut down locations in the city due to concerns of robbery, vandalism, and violence against employees which largely go unpunished. Many of the stores that have remained in the city have resorted to locking down their merchandise, including putting them behind locked glass cases, and even chaining doors shut to prevent shoplifting.
In September, San Francisco recorded a record-high office vacancy rate of 34%. In another survey of 74 restaurants throughout the city, just 3% reported that they did not suffer from any vandalism in that same month.
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures: AI-Fueled AMD Leads Four Tech Giants Into Buy Zones; Jobs Report Due
AMD and Google jumped on AI optimism, leading Thursday's market rally. Broadcom and Lululemon headlined overnight earnings.
Published:12/7/2023 5:45:40 PM
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[Markets]
The Moneyist: ‘I didn’t see how this could happen to my family — until now’: My brother drained $200,000 from my mother’s savings. How can I stop him?
“I manage my mother’s finances, but I have always treated it as her money and not mine to spend or control. If she wants to give him money, she gives him money.”
Published:12/7/2023 5:19:54 PM
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[Markets]
Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, By Country
Visualizing Portfolio Return Expectations, By Country
How do investors’ return expectations differ from those of advisors? How does this expectation gap shift across countries?
Despite 2022 being the worst year for stock markets in over a decade, investors around the world appear confident about the long-term performance of their portfolios. These convictions point towards resilience across global economies, driven by strong labor markets and moderating inflation.
While advisors are optimistic, their expectations are more conservative overall.
In the following graphic, Visual Capitalist's Dorothy Neufeld shows the return expectation gap by country between investors and financial professionals in 2023, based on data from Natixis.
Expectation Gap by Country
Below, we show the return expectation gap by country, based on a survey of 8,550 investors and 2,700 financial professionals:
Investors in the U.S. have the highest long-term annual return expectations, at 15.6%. The U.S. also has the highest expectations gap across countries, with investors’ expectations more than double that of advisors.
Likely influencing investor convictions are the outsized returns seen in the last decade, led by big tech. This year is no exception, as a handful of tech giants are seeing soaring returns, lifting the overall market.
From a broader perspective, the S&P 500 has returned 11.5% on average annually since 1928.
Following next in line were investors in Chile and Mexico with return expectations of 15.1% and 14.7%, respectively. Unlike many global markets, the MSCI Chile Index posted double-digit returns in 2022.
Global financial hub, Singapore, has the lowest expectations gap across countries.
Investors in the UK and Europe, have the most moderate return expectations overall. Confidence has been weighed down by geopolitical tensions, high interest rates, and dismal economic data.
Return Expectations Across Asset Classes
What are the expected returns for different asset classes over the next decade?
A separate report by Vanguard used a quantitative model to forecast returns through to 2033. For U.S. equities, it projects 4.1-6.1% in annualized returns. Global equities are forecast to have 6.4-8.4% returns, outperforming U.S. stocks over the next decade.
Bonds, meanwhile, are forecast to see 3.6-4.6% annualized returns for the U.S. aggregate market, while U.S. Treasuries are projected to average 3.3-4.3% annually.
While it’s impossible to predict the future, we can see a clear expectation gap not only between countries, but between advisors, clients, and other models. Factors such as inflation, interest rates, and the ability for countries to weather economic headwinds will likely have a significant influence on future portfolio returns.
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[Markets]
Broadcom logs earnings beat, but chip stock edges lower
Broadcom logs earnings beat, but chip stock edges lower
Published:12/7/2023 4:08:49 PM
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[Markets]
Fed's Bank Bailout Fund Explodes To Record High As Massive Money-Market Fund Inflows Continue
Fed's Bank Bailout Fund Explodes To Record High As Massive Money-Market Fund Inflows Continue
Money-market funds saw another large ($61.5BN) inflow last week. That is the sixth straight week of inflows, adding $290BN in that time to a new record high of $5.9TN...
Source: Bloomberg
In a breakdown for the week to Dec. 6, government funds - which invest primarily in securities like Treasury bills, repurchase agreements and agency debt - saw assets rise to $4.829TN, a $56.1BN increase.
Prime funds, which tend to invest in higher-risk assets such as commercial paper, meanwhile, saw assets climb to $946BN, a $6.1BN increase
Institutional funds saw the bulk of the inflows once again (+$43BN) while the unbroken trend of inflow into Retail funds continues (+$18.5BN)...
Source: Bloomberg
The resurgence in money-market fund inflows is diverging parabolically from bank deposits (which are basically flat on a seasonally-adjusted basis)...
Source: Bloomberg
Meanwhile, after a small uptick into month-end, November's exodus from The Fed's reverse repo facility continued in December...
Source: Bloomberg
While reserve scarcity is not evident quite yet, we did get some angst this week. as SOFR spiked relative to O/N RRP.
For now, The Fed balance sheet contraction accelerated last week, dropping $58.8BN (the biggest weekly decline since September)...
Source: Bloomberg
QT continued with a slight acceleration as 'securities held' fell $30.4BN...
Source: Bloomberg
And usage of The Fed's Bank Term Funding Program (expensive bank bailout fund) exploded higher by $7.8BN (biggest increase since April) to $122BN (a new record high)...
Source: Bloomberg
For banks tapping the Fed's BTFP, there’s an arbitrage to be deployed where institutions borrow from the facility and park the proceeds in their account at the central bank, according to Bill Nelson, chief economist at the Bank Policy Institute in Washington and a former Federal Reserve economist.
The interest rate on BTFP loans was about 5.18% as of Dec. 1 — one-year OIS swap rate +10bp, while interest on reserve balances is 5.40%
BTFP loans have a term of one-year and the rate is fixed for the term of the loan and can be repaid without penalty, and only backed by securities the bank owned as of March 12
“So borrow from the BTFP, leave the proceeds on deposit at the Fed, and collect the 22bp spread,” Nelson wrote.
If the BTFP rate falls further, banks can repay the loan early and take out a new loan. If IORB falls below the rate on the BTFP loan, institutions can repay the loan
“A similar arbitrage opened up for AMLF loans in May 2009 and the Fed quickly adjusted the program to close it,” he said
And for now, regional bank stocks continue to surge higher as their usage of The Fed's bailout facility also soars. Is the market betting on a big enough collapse in yields that this $100BN-plus hole in bank balance sheets is miraculously heeled? Just what kind of economic contraction would that take? (and what would that great depression-like scenario do for banks loan books?) Asking for a friend...
Source: Bloomberg
Finally, equity market caps continue to rebound after recoupling with bank reserves at The Fed (as the latter also expands once again thanks to the RRP drawdowns)...
Source: Bloomberg
The Fed's "temporary" bailout fund is up in March... and at the pace of exodus from the RRP facility, that could be the same time that reserve scarcity starts to rear its ugly head.
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures: Four Tech Giants Lead Market, Move Into Buy Zones; Jobs Report Due
AMD and Google jumped on AI optimism, leading Thursday's market rally. Broadcom and Lululemon headlined overnight earnings.
Published:12/7/2023 3:59:59 PM
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[Markets]
GLOBAL MARKETS-Yen surges on possible Bank of Japan shift, stocks climb
The Japanese yen jumped on Thursday as Bank of Japan policymakers hinted the central bank may shift away from its ultra-low interest rate plan and a gauge of global stocks rose after three straight falls as investors assessed the latest round of U.S. labor market data. The yen surged 2.39% against the greenback, its biggest one-day jump since Jan. 12, at 143.86 per dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda added to speculation that the central bank could move away from negative rates by saying policy management would "become even more challenging from the year-end and heading into next year" and indicated several options of what could be on the horizon.
Published:12/7/2023 3:39:09 PM
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[Markets]
U.S. stocks end higher, Dow closes less than 2% from record
U.S. stocks end higher, Dow closes less than 2% from record
Published:12/7/2023 3:22:29 PM
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[Markets]
Stocks Got an AI Boost. S&P 500, Dow Ended Losing Streaks.
Stocks notched gains on Thursday as investors flocked to AI-related stocks in droves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 63 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 advanced 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1.
Published:12/7/2023 3:08:56 PM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Up As AMD Soars Amid AI Fever; These 3 Bill Ackman Stocks Are Near Entries
The Dow Jones rallied. AMD stock popped amid an AI chip reveal. Some Bill Ackman stocks, including Google parent Alphabet, are near entries.
Published:12/7/2023 2:56:06 PM
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[Markets]
Consumer Credit Expansion Slowed Dramatically In October
Consumer Credit Expansion Slowed Dramatically In October
The latest data on consumer credit data for October confirmed the slowdown seen in September, as total debt increased by just $5.13 billion (below consensus estimates of $8.5 billion).
This is a clear regime shift lower from recent months when the monthly increase was in the $20/$30BN range.
Looking at the composition, both revolving and non-revolving credit were weak.
Starting with the former, in October, credit card debt rose by just $2.9 billion, which with the exception of June's freak negative revolving credit print, was the lowest monthly increase since April 2021 (amid the COVID lockdown crisis).
As for non-revolving credit, or student and auto loans, here too things have gotten bogged down, rising just $2.3 billion in October...
Of course, the slowdown in debt, and especially credit-card debt, should not be a surprise since the average rate on credit cards across US financial institutions just hit a record high of 22.77%.
And with consumers increasingly reluctant to max out their credit cards due to record high rates, at a time when the personal savings rate in the US has collapsed back near multi-decade lows in recent months...
... it is now only a matter of time before US GDP prints deep negative now that that pillar supporting 70% of the US economy, consumer purchases, is about to crack.
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[Markets]
November’s rally just erased two months of Fed tightening, economist says
November’s rally just erased two months of Fed tightening, economist says
Published:12/7/2023 2:25:34 PM
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[Markets]
Robert Powell's Retirement Portfolio: Vacations, cars, and roof repairs? You may be surprised by how much you spend in retirement
How to prepare for spending volatility in retirement
Published:12/7/2023 2:19:08 PM
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[Markets]
GLOBAL MARKETS-Yen jumps on possible Bank of Japan shift, stocks bounce
The Japanese yen jumped on Thursday as policymakers hinted the Bank of Japan (BOJ) may shift away from its ultra-low interest rate plan and a gauge of global stocks rose after three straight falls as investors assessed the latest round of U.S. labor market data. The yen surged 2.64% against the greenback, its biggest one-day jump since Dec. 20, at 143.52 per dollar after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda added to speculation that the central bank could move away from negative rates by saying policy management would "become even more challenging from the year-end and heading into next year" and indicated several options of what could be on the horizon.
Published:12/7/2023 2:13:11 PM
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[Markets]
Lawrence G. McMillan: Resistance is expected but futile: Stocks are geared for a year-end rally
Yet all bets are off if the S&P 500 closes below 4400.
Published:12/7/2023 1:48:24 PM
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[Markets]
Predictably, The Rush To Electric Cars Is Imploding
Predictably, The Rush To Electric Cars Is Imploding
Authored by Levi Russell via RealClear Wire,
My appreciation for our freedom of movement was re-ignited recently when I finished up an engine swap into my rare-but-not-collectable 1995 Ford Thunderbird. It had blown a head gasket and had far more than 200,000 miles on it, so in went a junkyard-fresh 4.6L V8 with only 40,000 miles on the clock, or so said the yard I bought it from.
My use of the term “freedom of movement” on this site goes back to my article in March of 2022, where I pointed out that the Biden administration is hell-bent on forcing us into a mass-transit-heavy society, in part through regulations and restrictions that made it less convenient and more expensive to drive a car. I pointed out that subsidizing absurdly expensive EVs and forcing car makers to implement tech that shuts down cars (allegedly only for drunk drivers) are part of the plan. The totalitarian leftists at the Daily Kos promptly published a hit piece on me, calling me every name in the hysterical leftist playbook.
At the time, those on the fence might have considered this to be a conspiracy theory. Now, though, they’ll have to admit I was right. The NTSB recently floated the idea of limiting the maximum speed a car can be driven. The scolds in the press instantly jumped at the chance to wag their fingers at Americans who dare to drive above the speed limit. Some blatantly stated that anyone who might question giving the state this sort of power are part of some strange, fringe political minority that should be ignored by all sensible people. Of course, it’s easy to see how this might be abused, just like the aforementioned power to shut your car down at will.
A recently published article in the peer-reviewed academic journal Transportation Research tells us that cars, even the supposedly anointed battery electric variety, are far too convenient and that the state must be empowered to “restrict car use.” The authors tell us that converting car lanes to bus lanes have reduced car use in Oslo. No surprise there. The fact that academia is floating this sort of policy should concern anyone who has any inkling of mistrust of the federal government. Truly our freedom of movement is in peril.
Electric vehicles are not nearly as popular as their advocates would have had us believe, as sales are now slumping in the face of rising interest rates and a lack of so-called fast chargers. As we begin to bump up against mined mineral constraints and international relations complications, there’s no doubt the cost of making these glorified toys will continue to rise. A recent Consumer Reports publication shows that, over the last 3 model years, electric vehicles are less reliable than normal gasoline and diesel vehicles. So, several states want to ban the sale of reliable, inexpensive gas and diesel cars and force us to buy less reliable electric cars. Note well that the superior reliability of hybrids is likely down to the fact that car makers who are better known for their reliability make more hybrids. There’s nothing inherent to a hybrid that would make it more reliable than a gasoline engine vehicle.
Even our ability to travel using air travel is under the gun. A CNN op-ed recently floated the idea of limiting air travel through the use of carbon (read: sin) passports. We will be limited to traveling based on the amount of carbon dioxide emitted during the flight. The author wants this applied to cruise ships as well. It’s not hard to see this applied to your car as well. Of course, such rules will not apply to the super-wealthy climate grifters. They’ll be jetting all over the globe for their very important climate conferences.
And it’s not just transportation. In September, Reuters “fact checked” a claim that US cities had agreed to limit meat consumption, finding the claim false. And yet, we are told on a nearly daily basis that eliminating beef consumption is necessary to save the planet. The sin of using coal (but not apparently to create steel) has become the sin of eating a steak. What’s next? Rice? Pork?
Beginning in 2024, the German government will empower local electricity providers to limit the flow of electricity to heat pumps and electric cars. Such limits were the stuff of alleged conspiracy theories mere months ago. Now they’re a reality. Germany’s suicidal attempt to power their grid with nothing but wind and solar, killing off their own nuclear power generation over the last 20 years, has led to energy rationing. It’s not as if this is unpredictable. The unreliability of so-called renewables is common knowledge among energy experts.
It’s sensible for those who are concerned about their ability to choose where and when they travel, what they eat, and when they turn on their heaters and air conditioners to be skeptical of every single attempt to accrue more power by state and federal governments. That skepticism should turn into activism against these power grabs. Anyone who tells you these power grabs aren’t coming is telling you not to believe your own eyes.
Levi Russell is an associate teaching professor at the University of Kansas School of Business.
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[Markets]
US STOCKS-Alphabet and AMD fuel AI rally on Nasdaq
The Nasdaq surged on Thursday, with Alphabet and Advanced Micro Devices sparking a megacap rally on fresh optimism about artificial intelligence. Shares of Alphabet jumped over 5% as analysts cheered the launch of the Google-parent's newest AI model, while AMD soared more than 9% after the company estimated the potential market for its data center AI chips could reach $45 billion this year.
Published:12/7/2023 1:42:19 PM
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[Markets]
Dow, S&P 500 Set to Snap Losing Streaks
Stocks made a strong recovery mid-Thursday as bonds yields lost ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 88 points, or 0.25%. The S&P 500 had made its largest one-day gain since mid-November, moving up 0.
Published:12/7/2023 1:36:08 PM
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[Markets]
Something alarming is happening in the financial plumbing under Wall Street
Something alarming is happening in the financial plumbing under Wall Street
Published:12/7/2023 1:36:07 PM
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[Markets]
Did ObamaCare 'Work'?
Did ObamaCare 'Work'?
Via Political Calculations blog,
The Affordable Care Act was signed into law in 2010. It was slowly implemented, going into full effect in 2014. One of the main goals of the law was to make health insurance more affordable for Americans, but has it worked?
One way to answer that question is to see how much Americans are paying for health insurance since the ACA became law and to compare that how much American households would otherwise have paid if the preceding trend for health insurance costs remained in place.
We can make comparison using data from the U.S. Census Bureau's annual Consumer Expenditure (CEX) Survey. The CEX has reported how much an average "consumer unit", which roughly corresponds to an American household, has paid for health insurance in each year from 1984 through 2022. It compares those data points with the trend based on the actual expenditures for health insurance from 2000 through 2010. Here's the chart:
Compared to the pre-Affordable Care Act trend from 2000 through 2010, Americans household consumers paid 35% more on average for health insurance in 2022 than they would otherwise have paid based on the trend for these costs from 2000 through 2010.
How does that compare with the household consumers' other major health care expenditures? The chart is adapted from an older version and narrows in on the period from 2008 through 2022 to track the change in the average expenditures per American consumer unit for several health care expenditure categories. These categories include health insurance, medical services, drugs, and medical supplies.
Through 2022, what American household consumers pay for drugs and medical supplies has changed very little, with medical supplies within $95 and drugs within $133 of their cost in 2008.
Expenditures for medical services has seen more growth over time. In 2013, the year before the Affordable Care Act took full effect, Americans paid just $69 more for medical services than they did in 2008. By 2019, that increased to $257, which then dipped to $137 in the pandemic year of 2020. What American consumer households pay for medical services has risen rapidly since, as of 2022 they reached $457 more than they paid in 2008.
But what Americans pay for health insurance has relentlessly risen in all but one year (2017). In 2013, just before the Affordable Care Act became fully operational, Americans paid $576 more for health insurance than they did in 2008. That jumpd immediately to $1,215 in 2014, and has since risen to be $2,190 more than what American consumer units paid for health insurance in 2008.
2022 is the most recent year for which we have figures available. The Census Bureau will collect the data for 2023 in March 2024 and will crunch the numbers for several months before reporting it all sometime in September 2024.
[ZH:... thanks Barack! Mission Accomplished?]
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[Markets]
: JPMorgan’s Jamie Dimon says crypto-funded terrorism and crime prove governments should ban cryptocurrencies
JPMorgan Chase & Co. Chief Bank executive Jamie Dimon told lawmakers they should crack down on cryptocurrency transactions by terror groups and rogue nations.
Published:12/7/2023 12:47:20 PM
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[Markets]
Dow trails S&P 500 by most since 2000
The Dow's lack of exposure to the Magnificent 7 tech stocks has put it behind the S&P 500 in 2023.
Published:12/7/2023 12:40:39 PM
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[Markets]
Alone and unable to fend for themselves — the plight of elderly Americans
Alone and unable to fend for themselves — the plight of elderly Americans
Published:12/7/2023 12:34:27 PM
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[Markets]
Stock market news today: Stocks pop, tech leads as focus fixes on jobs data
Fresh labor market data is again the focus for investors, though hints the BOJ could exit its ultraloose rates policy was rattling nerves.
Published:12/7/2023 11:52:02 AM
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[Markets]
Citi projects economic slowdown in 2024 but no recession
Investors should consider getting back into 60/40 portfolios, say Citi Global Wealth forecasters.
Published:12/7/2023 11:44:50 AM
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[Markets]
Biden Drops The Term Bidenomics, Republicans Would Be Wise To Use It Instead
Biden Drops The Term Bidenomics, Republicans Would Be Wise To Use It Instead
By Mish Shedlock of MishTalk
Biden has used the word 101 times since June, but he has made no mention of it for almost a full month.
Polls show people have little faith in Biden, especially regarding the economy. Nonetheless, Biden endlessly promoted Bidenomics for months.
That quietly ended a month ago and NBC figured it out.
NBC reports ‘Bidenomics’ is Nowhere to be Found in the President’s Recent Speeches.
Since June, President Joe Biden had been freely peppering the word “Bidenomics” into his speeches and remarks mentioning the economy — 101 times, to be exact.
In doing so, he was attaching his name to a set of administration policies that most Americans don’t believe have worked, according to recent polling. In an NBC News poll conducted this month, only 38% of respondents approved of Biden’s handling of the economy.
Now, the word “Bidenomics” appears to have been dropped entirely from Biden’s comments about the economy. He hasn’t used it in public remarks since Nov. 1, when he likened Bidenomics to “the American Dream” in a speech in Minnesota.
“Bidenomics” branding, however, hasn’t disappeared from the White House and the president’s re-election campaign. Wednesday’s event in Colorado was billed as a way to “highlight how Bidenomics is driving record investments in Congresswoman Lauren Boebert’s district,” according to a White House release.
The White House YouTube page similarly labeled Biden’s speech Wednesday as “remarks on Bidenomics.” The word was also plastered around the president’s podium for his remarks in Colorado.
The absence of the word in Biden’s speeches comes as some Democratic strategists and Biden allies have criticized the branding.
The White House has also used the word to contrast the president’s policies to “MAGAnomics,” a term Biden has used to describe the Republican economic agenda.
“The country should know the facts. They should know the choice between Bidenomics and MAGAnomics,” Biden said in a Sept. 14 speech.
He has also tied Bidenomics to the American dream — doing so twice in his Nov. 1 remarks. “Folks, Bidenomics is just another way of saying the American Dream,” Biden said that day.
Losing Faith in Bidenomics
It seems that Biden has lost faith in Bidenomics, but his staff hasn’t. The public had no faith to begin with.
“You say you lost your faith, but that’s not where it’s at
You had no faith to lose and you know it“
In case you don’t recognize those lines, they are from Positively 4th Street, written many decades ago by Bod Dylan.
Making the move away from citing Bidenomics could be a positive sign for the president’s re-election campaign, presidential historian Douglas Brinkley said.
“Because ‘Reaganomics’ seemed to have taken hold, it made some sense to shop ‘Bidenomics.’ But it fell flat. It’s a little bit like Gerald Ford’s ‘Whip Inflation Now’ buttons.
Nobody wants to be waving banners that say, ‘I love Bidenomics,’” Brinkley said.
Indeed. And that’s precisely why Republicans ought to pick up where Biden left off.
Five Alarm Bell – Biden Trails Trump in Five of Six Battleground States
On November 5, I commented Five Alarm Bell – Biden Trails Trump in Five of Six Battleground States
That’s about the time Biden stopped bragging about Bidenomics. Numerous polls since show the same thing.
But if Biden is wise to stop mentioning Bidenomics, Republicans should consider using it more often.
The Choice Is Between Two Devils
Trump is not remotely close to being a Libertarian and neither is remotely close to being a moderate. However, voters have decided that between Trump and Biden, Trump looks better in comparison. The devil we had is better than the devil we got. You might disagree, but that is what many polls now show.
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[Markets]
Markets: How many rate cuts are being priced in for 2024?
Wall Street is increasingly bullish on the market outlook (^GSPC, ^DJI, ^IXIC) in 2024. Saxo Senior Fixed Income Strategist Althea Spinozzi and Roundhill Investments Chief Strategy Officer David Mazza join Yahoo Finance Live to discuss what 2024 may hold in store for the Fed's interest rate policy and how markets are already pricing in expected interest rate cuts. "Realistically, we believe that inflation is going to have lesser importance than growth throughout 2024. But central banks are going to be cautious about that," Spinozzi says. "So, right now, the market is pricing in five interest rate cuts by the end of 2024. We believe that that is ahead of itself." For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live.
Published:12/7/2023 11:23:43 AM
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[Markets]
: Edwards Lifesciences to spin off critical-care unit, sets $1B stock buyback
Katie Szyman will be chief executive of the independent company, which is expected to generate $905 million in sales in 2023.
Published:12/7/2023 11:17:03 AM
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[Markets]
Are pensions poised for a comeback? IBM may again blaze a retirement-plan trail.
Are pensions poised for a comeback? IBM may again blaze a retirement-plan trail.
Published:12/7/2023 10:55:32 AM
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[Markets]
US STOCKS-Nasdaq outperforms on Alphabet boost, payrolls data in focus
The Nasdaq outpaced other major Wall Street indexes on Thursday as Alphabet shares surged, while investors looked forward to monthly payrolls data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy actions. Shares of the Google-parent were up 5% as investors cheered the launch of the company's most advanced artificial intelligence model called Gemini.
Published:12/7/2023 10:55:32 AM
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[Markets]
AMD wins praise for AI progress — and the stock soars
AMD wins praise for AI progress — and the stock soars
Published:12/7/2023 10:21:01 AM
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[Markets]
The Ratings Game: Amazon’s stock cheered as 2024 top pick — even after a 75% jump this year
A TD Cowen analyst thinks Wall Street may be underappreciating Amazon's advertising opportunity.
Published:12/7/2023 10:21:01 AM
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[Markets]
End Of Fed Liquidity Pump Spells Trouble For Markets
End Of Fed Liquidity Pump Spells Trouble For Markets
Authored by Simon White, Bloomberg macro strategist,
The Federal Reserve’s reverse repo (RRP) facility has been a key support for liquidity and stocks this year. But it is falling. As it approaches zero, markets face much less benign conditions as a formidable tailwind is extinguished.
Everyone’s a plumber, or at least should be.
Not in the sense that we all need to get handy with a spanner, but in that every investor should have at least a basic knowledge of financial plumbing in the modern central-banking regime.
A good place to start is the Fed’s RRP facility.
It reached a peak of over $2.5 trillion in May this year. That’s a lot of cash to have hidden down the sofa. But it is now falling at a steady rate, down more than half from its peak. What happens when it goes to zero is a key question for markets and plumbers alike.
The RRP has been a veritable liquidity pump this year, acting as a source of stability for markets. Money that would otherwise have been taken out of the system as the Treasury funded its largest peacetime, non-recession deficit was returned immediately and identically as money market funds (MMFs) drew down on the vast RRP.
Normally, when the Treasury is borrowing that much money - over $2 trillion on an annual basis - it absorbs liquidity from the system as the bonds are bought mainly using bank deposits.
The liquidity eventually comes back into the system (the government borrows the money to spend it after all), but it is less “high-powered” and therefore not as beneficial for assets.
In sum, the RRP meant that what would have otherwise been very unfriendly conditions for stocks were instead supportive.
In fact, equities not only benefited from buoyant liquidity conditions, they were also aided by an unusually interest-rate resistant economy being flooded with public money. This has been pro-cyclical government spending on steroids.
What happens, then, to risk assets when the RRP goes to zero?
There are two aspects to consider: the effect in relation to funding the fiscal deficit, and the impact on money markets. Both ultimately mean a less easy ride for stocks and other risk assets.
On the deficit, the Treasury’s choice to fund most of it using bills has been a material support for stocks this year. MMFs can buy bills and were incentivized to do so as the yield on them rose above the RRP rate. As they were the ones with almost all the liquidity parked at the RRP, reserves have actually managed to rise this year, paradoxically so given the Fed’s ongoing quantitative tightening program.
However, when the RRP goes to zero, government funding of the deficit will be functionally no different than if it had issued primarily longer-term debt (as is usual). Bank deposits and reserves are likely to fall more. Stocks will thus have less support when the RRP runs out. (Banks may decide to buy more of the issuance, which would mitigate the drop in reserves. But they have been heavy sellers of USTs, and look like they will continue to be until their duration risk falls further.)
Equities are also affected by what happens in funding markets, which could see an impact when the RRP goes to zero.
The market is haunted by what occurred in September 2019, when funding rates flared higher. Reserves had fallen to $1.5 trillion as the Fed progressed with its first shot at quantitative tightening. It had to promptly reverse its policy as repo rates started to spike.
In a potential echo of 2019, the Secured Overnight Financing Rate unexpectedly jumped six basis points this week - a huge amount outside of Fed rate moves - causing jitters that funding flare-ups can happen even when reserves are at a much higher level. The rise was blamed on many factors, such as demand for extra funding due to the rally in Treasuries, reserve hoarding in anticipation of Basel III regulations, or as a buffer for underwater hold-to-maturity portfolios of bonds (i.e. what did it for SVB).
The SOFR has now reversed almost all of its jump, indicating that perhaps other factors, such as a combination of month-end demand and bank balance-sheets being clogged with bills, were primarily to blame.
Either way, the level of reserves that cause funding problems may well be higher than before. But assuming the jump in SOFR was idiosyncratic, today’s $4.3 trillion in actual and potential reserves — almost three times the 2019 level — is likely to be ample. (The $4.3 trillion comes from $3.4 trillion of reserves plus about $850 billion in the RRP — using the domestic RRP, as the foreign RRP tends to be sticky.)
Quantitative tightening will progressively take reserves lower, but the RRP going to zero in and of itself does not look like it will be the smoking gun for repo funding problems.
This raises the question though: when will the RRP go to zero?
Assuming the SOFR rate does not jump higher than the RRP again, it should take some 5-6 months to deplete the domestic RRP on the current trend.
In that time, QT could have taken out up to around $570 billion of reserves. That would mean total reserves would be in the order of $3.7 trillion (or closer to $3.6 trillion if we assume the Treasury wants to get its account at the Fed up to its intended $750 billion). That is still quite far above most estimates for the so-called lowest comfortable level of reserves of $2-$2.5 trillion.
All roads point to a less beneficent backdrop for assets once the RRP is exhausted. It has been a steady source of liquidity most of this year.
However, in the first instance its depletion represents the absence of a tailwind for markets, not necessarily an additional headwind. Yet as time goes on, QT will increasingly become a headwind without the RRP to leaven it.
Key things to keep an eye on are re-increases in the RRP, indicating extra reserves are being taken back out of the system, or a rising take-up in the Fed’s standing repo facility, which would point to potential funding problems.
All said and done, don’t put your spanner away yet, knowing how to plumb remains an essential skill.
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[Markets]
Milestones on the road to retirement success — join the discussion
Milestones on the road to retirement success — join the discussion
Published:12/7/2023 9:31:26 AM
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[Markets]
Market Snapshot: Dow, S&P 500 look to snap three-day losing streak as Nasdaq leads U.S. stocks higher
U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday after three days of losses for the Dow and S&P 500 as traders bet that the November jobs report due Friday could show continued moderation in the strength of the labor market.
Published:12/7/2023 9:31:26 AM
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[Markets]
US STOCKS-Wall St rises on Alphabet boost, payrolls data in focus
The Nasdaq led gains among Wall Street's major indexes on Thursday, driven by a rise in Alphabet shares, while investors looked forward to monthly payrolls data for clues on the Federal Reserve's policy actions. Shares of the Google-parent were up 5.5%, a day after the release of the company's most advanced artificial intelligence model called Gemini.
Published:12/7/2023 9:07:10 AM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Climbs After Jobless Claims Rise; Google Stock Surges After Gemini AI Model
The Dow Jones climbed Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. Google stock surged after unveiling its Gemini AI model.
Published:12/7/2023 8:55:02 AM
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[Markets]
Stocks Open Higher. Dow, S&P 500 Snap Losing Streaks.
Stocks moved decisively higher Thursday, with implications of Japan’s exit from negative interest rates and the state of the U.S. labor market on investors' minds. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 70 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was up about 0.5%.
Published:12/7/2023 8:49:03 AM
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[Markets]
BOJ Shocks With Hints Of Imminent Rate Hike, Traditionally A Signal Of Imminent Financial Crisis
BOJ Shocks With Hints Of Imminent Rate Hike, Traditionally A Signal Of Imminent Financial Crisis
After a brutal drop in interest rates across the globe in November, driven by expectations of imminent rate cuts by heretofore hawkish central banks, markets have seen a sharp reversal in tone in the past 12 hours, with bond yields seeing a significant increase overnight and equities losing ground, despite a major bond rally taking place yesterday. The main catalyst for this have been comments from Bank of Japan officials, which have suddenly seen investors ramp up the chances that the BoJ could bring an end to their negative interest rate policy, with markets pricing in nearly 50% odds of a December hike.
Why the sudden change? Well, yesterday we saw Deputy Governor Himono discuss the impact of negative rates, pointing out that households could benefit from higher net interest income if rates were positive (which, of course, is a "brilliant" conclusion: if interest rates are positive one may actually earn interest instead of paying it, thank you BOJ). He also added that “there would be a sufficient possibility of achieving a positive outcome from the exit, since a wide range of households and firms would benefit from the virtuous cycle between wages and prices”. So some fairly positive remarks about what could happen in such a scenario.
Then this morning, we’ve BoJ Governor Ueda himself, who added to that speculation by saying that policy management would “become even more challenging from the year-end and heading into next year”.
In turn, bipolar investors who were certain the BOJ would do nothing until mid-2024 and the yen traded as low as 152 just a few weeks ago, are now pricing in a 37% chance that the BoJ are going to end their negative interest rate policy at the meeting on December 19, and at one point overnight that even got as high as 45%...
... which in turn sent the USDJPY tumbling a whopping 250 pips in its biggest one-day drop since January, sliding to 144.81, the lowest since September.
Japanese government bonds also saw a sharp selloff, with yields on 10yr JGBs up +11.5bps overnight, and that move got further support after a dreadful 30yr auction saw weak demand and the lowest bid-to-cover since 2015.
Moreover, the impact hasn’t just been confined to Japan, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up +6.8bps overnight to 4.17%, although as discussed yesterday, the Treasury rally was due for a substantial pullback even without the BOJ: “Both valuation and positioning would argue for exhaustion in the recent bond rally,” said Mohit Kumar at Jefferies International. “Given our view of only a mild recession and inflation still remaining sticky, we would argue that the market has run a bit ahead of itself.”
So is the market - again - getting ahead of itself? As usual, the answer is yes, and even though the Bank of Japan has a terrible timing track record, most sellside research expect the central bank to not move until well into 2024.
Case in point, UBS Research expect the BoJ to end its negative interest rate policy (NIRP) in April 2024. Simultaneously, the market is pricing the Fed's first cut between March and May next year. Historically, this has happened before. BOJ’s rate hike in 2000 (25bp) and 2006 (50bp) were followed by FED’s cut as below.
That said, while a long-overdue rate hike by the BOJ should help Japan contain its runaway inflation, and should send prices tumbling into deflation post haste, hiking rates means a fresh round of mayhem and disarray in the JGB market, and an imminent reversal back into ZIRP and more QE.
Indeed, as Bloomberg notes, one cannot help but wonder if the BOJ is about to repeat the mistakes of 2000 and 2006-07 by starting to hike after the Fed has finished, and usually just before something in the global economy breaks.
For those who may not recall, the BOJ launched ZIRP in the late 1990s after an extended period of rates at 0.50% failed to spur a recovery from the implosion of the 1980s twin bubble and the associated fallout in the banking system. Yet in August 2000, the BOJ put rates back up to 0.25% (the unwinding of the dotcom bubble looked pretty orderly and well-contained at that point). And whoops! Just a couple of weeks after the BOJ hike, the Nasdaq bubble burst, starting a swoon that didn’t really end for more than two years.
But wait, there's more: a few years later, meanwhile, the country was enveloped in a wave of optimism courtesy of the dynamic leadership of former PM Junichiro Koizumi. The BOJ hiked in July 2006, and again in February 2007. A few days after that second hike, Chinese stocks dropped nearly 9% in a single day...still the largest daily decline of the century for that market. A few months later, a couple of Bear Stearns credit hedge funds imploded, ushering in the GFC.
"Obviously one shouldn’t posit a causal relationship there, because there isn’t one. It’s more a case of when the BOJ finally gets around to tightening, it seems that it’s late enough in the cycle that something goes seriously wrong elsewhere soon thereafter."
Bottom line: while we don't think a rate hike by the BOJ is imminent - and may never even happen, the central bank is best known for its jawboning not so much for its actions - should Ueda indeed proceed to hike rates, and thus start the countdown to the next crisis, it would tie in perfectly with our recent report that the "Sudden Spike In SOFR Hints At Mounting Reserve Shortage, Early Restart Of QE", because there will be no better catalyst for the Fed to restart QE than having one of its central bank peers throw the world into a fresh round of chaos.
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[Markets]
Stock market news today: Stocks pop as focus fixes on jobs data
Fresh labor market data is again the focus for investors, though hints the BOJ could exit its ultraloose rates policy was rattling nerves.
Published:12/7/2023 8:37:00 AM
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[Markets]
Asia Markets End Lower, Europe Slides While Crude Oil Slips Below $70 - Global Markets Today While US Was Sleeping
On Wednesday, December 6th, the U.S. stock markets closed lower as concerns about a cooling job market fueled expectations of a rate cut. In economic data, November U.S. private sector employment rose by 103,000, missing the expected 130,000 and down from the revised 106,000 in October. The U.S. trade deficit expanded to $64.3 billion in October, up from the revised $61.2 billion in September. Eight of the 11 S&P 500 sectors fell, with energy down 1.64% and information technology losing 0.93%. T
Published:12/7/2023 8:19:00 AM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures Reverse After Jobless Claims Rise; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings
Dow Jones futures reversed higher Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings.
Published:12/7/2023 8:12:33 AM
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[Markets]
First-time unemployment claims on rise, latest weekly data show
First-time unemployment claims on rise, latest weekly data show
Published:12/7/2023 8:06:36 AM
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[Markets]
Stock Market Today: Stocks mixed as Treasury rally stalls and dollar slides
Rate-cut bets on Wall Street are starting to meet recession concerns in the broader economy, and that's keeping stock gains in check ahead of Friday's jobs report.
Published:12/7/2023 7:54:13 AM
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[Markets]
: Nikki Haley misstated the link between TikTok usage and antisemitism. Here’s what a study found.
Published:12/7/2023 7:41:54 AM
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[Markets]
Futures Rise, Yen Soars, JGBs Tumble As BOJ Rattles Markets
Futures Rise, Yen Soars, JGBs Tumble As BOJ Rattles Markets
US equity futures are mixed with tech outperforming notably, as both GOOG and AMD rose +2.8% and 3.7% pre-mkt, respectively. As of 8:00am ET, S&P futures were up 0.1% to 4,560 and Nasdaq futures gained 0.2%. 10Y Treasury yields rose 5 basis points as Japanese bonds tumbled and the yen surged 1.6% against the dollar amid renewed speculation that the Bank of Japan will scrap the world’s last negative interest-rate regime as soon as the Dec 19 BOJ meeting (spoiler alert: it won't). Of course, if the BOJ does indeed hike yields, US yields will move sharply higher. Elsewhere, the USD is weaker and commodities are higher led by a rebound in the energy complex; WTI is back above $70. Today’s macro data is on Job Cuts, Initial/Continuing Claims, and Consumer Credit. Tomorrow’s NFP data is the more market moving data.
In premarket trading, US mega-tech stocks rose helped by gains in Alphabet and AMD, while the broader market struggled for direction. Here are the most notable premarket movers:
- Alphabet shares rise 2.6% a day after Google released Gemini, the “largest and most capable AI model” the company has ever built, as analysts were largely positive about its long-awaited AI model. JPMorgan notes that investors might have snoozed on the release, but he is positive about Google’s progress in this area.
- AMD shares rise 3.2% after the chipmaker unveiled new so-called accelerator chips aimed at taking on the lucrative artificial intelligence market dominated by its peer Nvidia. The company noted that it will be able to run AI software faster than rival products.
- Braze (BRZE) climbs 8.6% after the software company boosted its revenue guidance for the full fiscal year, beating the average analyst estimate.
- Bumble (BMBL) shares gain 0.9% after the dating-app company was initiated with an overweight recommendation at Wells Fargo, which expressed optimism on the sustainability of growth in its namesake app.
- Cerevel Therapeutics shares rise 13% after AbbVie agreed to acquire the biotech company in a deal valued at about $8.7 billion. This is the second acquisition for AbbVie in about a week as it comes on the heals of the $10.1 billion deal to purchase cancer-drug maker ImmunoGen.
- C3.ai falls 9.8% as the data management and analysis software company reported revenue for the second quarter that missed the average analyst estimate. It also issued a forecast for an operating loss in the fiscal year that was worse than projected.
- Chewy shares drop 9.9% after the online pet supplies retailer cut its full-year net sales guidance, which missed consensus estimates. Analysts viewed the results as disappointing, with Citi describing them as “lackluster.” Additionally, analysts noted that the focus now turns to the analyst day, which takes place next week.
- GameStop shares drop 7% after the video-game retailer reported third-quarter net sales that missed estimates. The company also announced a new policy that would allow chief executive officer Ryan Cohen to invest the company’s excess cash in equity securities, which Wedbush said was “the most inane decision we have ever seen.”
- Datadog shares rise 1.8% after Stifel upgrades the software platform provider to buy from hold, citing a survey indicating fewer customers looking to cut spending.
- GameStop shares drop 7.7% after the video-game retailer reported third-quarter net sales that missed estimates. Analysts called the print “mixed,” noting that revenue came in lower than expected.
- Rivian shares gain 3.0% after Stifel initiates coverage of the electric-vehicle maker with a buy rating, while peer Lucid’s shares ease as it is started at hold. The broker expects industry hurdles to diminish over the next few years and make way for sales growth.
- MicroAlgo gained 48%, adding to Wednesday’s 296% rally that was driven by an announcement that its Chinese companies plan to sign a cooperation agreement over postgraduate training with two other bodies.
- Rivian gains as much as 1.5% after Stifel initiates coverage of the electric-vehicle maker with a buy rating, while peer Lucid’s shares ease as it is started at hold. The broker expects industry hurdles to diminish over the next few years and make way for sales growth.
- Semtech shares are up 9.5% after the semiconductor device company reported third-quarter results that beat expectations and gave a forecast. Analysts said the report suggests a bottom ahead.
- Sprinklr shares slump 25%, set for their worst day on record, as analysts highlighted disappointing preliminary guidance for 2025 from the application software firm, seeing it as a sign that tough economic conditions are starting to bite.
- Take-Two falls 1.8% as BofA Global Research cut the recommendation on the video game publisher to neutral from buy, assuming a later launch of the company’s highly-anticipated Grand Theft Auto VI video game
The highlight of the overnight session was the surge in the yen and the plunge in JGBs which followed a jump in bets on a BOJ rate hike after hawkish hints by Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy spooked markets. Swaps at one point signaled a 45% chance of a policy shift this month. The move was another jolt to the global government rally, raising further doubts that central banks are ready to pivot toward rate cuts.
Traders also pointed to the fact that markets have run up in recent weeks and are due for a pause. There was a sense of caution ahead US labor market data, including jobless claims today and non-farm payrolls on Friday.
“Both valuation and positioning would argue for exhaustion in the recent bond rally,” said Mohit Kumar, chief European economist at Jefferies International. “Given our view of only a mild recession and inflation still remaining sticky, we would argue that the market has run a bit ahead of itself.”
European stocks ticked lower on Thursday, pausing after rallying to a four-month high as concerns over economic weakness outweighed recent hopes that interest rate cuts could be on the table for next year. The Stoxx Europe 600 was down 0.2% led lower by losses across rate-sensitive sectors including real estate and technology as bond yields rose, and a drop in travel and leisure stocks as JPMorgan turned more cautious on airlines. Among individual movers, shares in Swiss IT services firm SoftwareOne Holding AG edged higher following a Reuters report that Bain Capital is the last remaining bidder for the company after others dropped out, while Renault SA was little-changed after the French carmaker unveiled plans to cut electric vehicle production costs in half by 2027. European equities have rallied over 8% since reaching an October low, driven by gains across real estate stocks and technology as traders upped their bets on monetary easing from the ECB next year. Here are the biggest movers Thursday:
- Games Workshop shares drop as much as 15%, the biggest intraday decline since September 2022, after the table-top games maker issued a trading update for the first-half of the year
- Air France drops as much as 6.9%, Lufthansa -4.9% and IAG -3.7%, dragging down the Stoxx 600 transport & leisure index after JPMorgan turns more cautious on airlines, downgrading several
- Future plc shares drop as much as 31% after earnings missed estimates. The margin outlook for 2024 suggests a material cut to expectations, according to analysts
- Vodafone shares fall as much as 2.2% after Exane cuts the stock to underperform, saying the sale of its operations in Spain and potential deals in the UK and Italy are likely to dilute FCF
- Branicks drops as much as 11% after Bankhaus Metzler downgraded its rating on the commercial property investor to sell, citing the need for further disposals to pay its debt
- Hanza falls as much as 11% to SEK85.8, hovering just above the level of an offering of 3.53m new shares. The offering was priced at SEK85 apiece, a discount of about 10% to the last close
- Vertu Motors plunges as much as 24%, a record drop, after the UK automotive dealership issued a profit warning citing “negative external market factors”
- Smart Metering Systems gains as much as 43% to 969p, exceeding the 955p/share recommended cash offer from KKR, which values the utility company’s shares at about £1.3b
- Coats Group rises as much as 11% after the industrial thread manufacturer said it will no longer make payments to plug its pension deficit from the start of 2024
- Kin & Carta gains as much as 11% at 114.80p to trade just below Apax Partners improved offer price of 120p per share in cash.
“We do think that [European] equities have gone too far, we are quite cautious on the economic outlook,” Joost van Leenders, senior investment strategist at Van Lanschot Kempen, said by phone. “Since central banks started hiking interest rates, that we’ve seen an environment where higher yields are bad for equities and lower yields are good for equities, and that’s also driving the market at the moment.”
Earlier in the session, Asian stocks declined following the weak lead from Wall St where risk sentiment soured after more soft labour data, while markets digested mixed Chinese trade data which showed the first expansion in exports since April although imports surprisingly contracted.
- Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied with the mainland choppy amid mixed Chinese trade data in which exports expanded but the surprise contraction in imports suggested weaker domestic demand, while the Hong Kong benchmark suffered after Moody’s revised its credit outlook for the special administrative region to negative.
- Japan's Nikkei 225 was the worst hit and slipped back beneath the 33,000 level amid headwinds from a firmer currency and higher yields.
- Australia's ASX 200 was subdued amid notable underperformance in energy following the recent drop in oil prices to multi-month lows and with mixed trade data from both Australia and its largest trading partner.
In FX, the Bloomberg dollar spot index fell 0.2% reversing three sessions of gains to fall against all Group-of-10 peers; the yen soared, building on Asian-hours strength and Japanese bond futures fell sharply after the BOJ Governor Ueda discussed possible exit options in semiannual testimony. CAD and EUR are the weakest performers in G-10 FX, JPY and NOK outperform. The Swiss franc rose to the strongest level against the euro since the Swiss National Bank abandoned its currency cap almost nine years ago. The move reflects a shift in interest-rate expectations as confidence grows that the European Central Bank will move to cut rates sooner than its Swiss counterpart.
- USD/JPY dropped as much as 1.8% to a three-month low of 144.64 in the currency pair’s biggest move since January
- EUR/USD turned six sessions of losses to rise as much as 0.2% to 1.0785; One-week volatility increases to 9.53%, highest since May 4 as the tenor now captures the Fed and ECB policy decisions
- EUR/CHF dropped as much as 0.1% to 0.94087, the Swiss franc’s highest level against the euro since the SNB axed its cap in 2015
In commodities, crude futures advanced reversed several days of losses. Spot gold rose roughly $8 to trade near $2,033/oz. Bitcoin slipped below $44,000.
Looking To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, German and Italian industrial production for October, along with Italian retail sales for October. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Holzmann and Elderson.
Market Snapshot
- S&P 500 futures little changed at 4,554.25
- MXAP down 0.2% to 161.07
- MXAPJ down 0.4% to 498.16
- Nikkei down 1.8% to 32,858.31
- Topix down 1.1% to 2,359.91
- Hang Seng Index down 0.7% to 16,345.89
- Shanghai Composite little changed at 2,966.21
- Sensex down 0.2% to 69,524.31
- Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,173.34
- Kospi down 0.1% to 2,492.07
- STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 468.74
- German 10Y yield little changed at 2.21%
- Euro up 0.1% to $1.0778
- Brent Futures up 0.9% to $75.00/bbl
- Gold spot up 0.3% to $2,032.05
- U.S. Dollar Index down 0.27% to 103.88
Top Overnight Stores
- Moody’s Investors Service advised staff in China to work from home ahead of its cut to the outlook for the country’s sovereign credit rating, a suggestion staff believed was prompted by concern over Beijing’s possible reaction, according to two employees familiar with the situation. FT
- The amount of money that institutional investors have in Chinese stocks and bonds has declined by more than $31 billion this year, through October, the biggest net outflow since China joined the World Trade Organization in 2001, official Chinese data show. WSJ
- Bets on a BOJ rate hike surged after hawkish hints by Governor Kazuo Ueda and his deputy spooked markets. Swaps at one point signaled a 45% chance of a policy shift this month, but Bloomberg Economics said it’s too soon. BBG
- The European Union is nearing a deal on what is poised to become the most comprehensive regulation of artificial intelligence in the western world but negotiators are still trying to hammer out the final details. BBG
- Companies on both sides of the Atlantic are rushing to issue debt, taking advantage of the cheapest borrowing costs available in months following the sharp global bond market rally. Corporate borrowers in the US and Europe issued $246bn worth of investment-grade and junk bonds in November alone — 57 per cent more than October’s total, and $16bn higher than the average figure for the first 10 months of the year, according to data from LSEG. FT
- OpenAI has a new board, but its directors may still confront the same old problem. The artificial-intelligence startup’s unusual business structure that gave oversight of its for-profit business to a nonprofit board will be an unresolved issue for the new board to tackle. WSJ
- Nikki Haley drew attacks from rivals over her links to Wall Street in last night’s debate as her GOP bid gains steam. President Biden suffered a setback when Senate Republicans blocked $66 billion in emergency Ukraine aid. BBG
- Blackstone-backed Candle Media asked lenders to restructure some of its debt after recent acquisitions like Reese Witherspoon’s company failed to hit profit targets. The startup led by two Disney veterans has more than $1 billion in debt. BBG
- SpaceX started talks about selling shares at a raised valuation of over $175 billion, people familiar said, a boost from the summer’s $150 billion. The tender offer may range from $500 million to $750 million and value the shares at about $95 apiece. BBG
A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk
APAC stocks declined following the weak lead from Wall St where risk sentiment soured after more soft labour data, while markets digested mixed Chinese trade data which showed the first expansion in exports since April although imports surprisingly contracted. ASX 200 was subdued amid notable underperformance in energy following the recent drop in oil prices to multi-month lows and with mixed trade data from both Australia and its largest trading partner. Nikkei 225 was the worst hit and slipped back beneath the 33,000 level amid headwinds from a firmer currency and higher yields. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp were varied with the mainland choppy amid mixed Chinese trade data in which exports expanded but the surprise contraction in imports suggested weaker domestic demand, while the Hong Kong benchmark suffered after Moody’s revised its credit outlook for the special administrative region to negative.
Top Asian News
- Chinese President Xi met with European Council President Michel and European Commission President von der Leyen and said that both sides should maintain development momentum between China and the EU. Xi added that China and the EU have the responsibility to work together to provide more stability for the world and should be partners in mutually beneficial cooperation, as well as continuously enhance political mutual trust.
- BoJ Governor Ueda suggested that “handling of monetary policy would get tougher from the end of the year”; Japan's economy is to continue recovering moderately, supported mainly by accommodative financial conditions and effects of economic stimulus measures but noted that uncertainty over Japan's economy is extremely high. Ueda reiterated they will patiently continue monetary easing under YCC to support economic activity and the cycle of wage growth, while they have not yet reached a situation in which they can achieve the price target sustainably and stably with sufficient certainty. Furthermore, Ueda said they have not made a decision on which interest rate to target and don't have any specific idea in mind on how much they will raise rates once they end NIRP.
- ASEAN Plus Three deputy financial chiefs agreed on a system framework for a new regional emergency lending facility, according to a joint statement cited by Reuters.
- BoJ Governor Ueda said no specific discussion on FX with Japanese PM Kishida and there were no special demands from PM Kishida
- China's State Council has published a document to support further development of Shanghai Free Trade Zone
- Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi says expressed concerns about EV subsidy probe
European equities Eurostoxx50 (-0.3%) are on a weaker footing following a negative handover from the APAC session. European sectors have a heavy negative bias, though Utilities hold onto marginal gains; whilst Travel & Leisure is weighed on by Air France (-5.9%) and Lufthansa (-4.5%) amid broker downgrades. Additionally, Retail names are impacted to varying degrees amid research reports of shows that the named brands are at risk of sourcing products which have been made by Uyghurs forced to work in state-imposed labor transfer programs. US equity futures are mixed with specifics relatively light thus far; NQ (+0.2%) is holding onto gains ahead of US IJCs and Wholesale Sales.
Top European News
- ECB's Villeroy reiterated that the issue of possible rate cuts could be raised in 2024 but not right now, while he also repeated that disinflation is happening quicker than expected.
- Reuters poll showed all 90 economists unanimously expect the ECB to keep the Deposit Rate at 4.00% at next week's meeting, while 51 out of 90 expect a rate cut by end-Q2 2024 and the rest forecast a cut in Q3 2024 or later.
- Reuters Poll, BoE: to hold the Bank Rate at 5.25% through Q2-2024 (same as the November poll); UK economy to expand 0.4% in 2024 and 1.2% in 2025 (same as November)
- Norges Bank Regional Network Report: enterprises expect annual wage growth of 5.45 (prev. 5.4%) in 2023 and 4.5% (prev. 4.6%) in 2024.
- French Finance Minister Le Maire says we are 90% in agreement with Germany on reform of the EU's stability and growth pact, but our red line is that incentive to invest and reform must be kept.
- EU Commission approves France's EUR 4.12bln scheme to develop additional offshore wind energy
- EU AI Act could exclude open-source models from regulation, via Reuters citing a proposal
FX
- The broader Dollar and index are pressured in early European trade by a rampant Yen, with participants attributing the notable upside in the Japanese currency to a surge in JGB yields coupled with commentary from BoJ Governor Ueda.
- USD/JPY has now extended losses of around 1.8% bringing the price below the 145.00 level; down to a 144.55 trough.
- Both the EUR and GBP trade with modest gains against the Dollar and flat against each other, with the currencies failing to fully benefit from the Dollar’s pullback amid losses in EUR/JPY and GBP/JPY.
- AUD, NZD, CAD trade mixed with the NZD and CAD flat against the Dollar while the AUD narrowly outperforms as base metals attempt a recovery.
- PBoC set USD/CNY mid-point at 7.1176 vs exp. 7.1623 (prev. 7.1140).
Fixed Income
- Déjà vu for Bunds with another data-driven uptick occurring at the start of the session lifting the contract above the 135.00 mark to a 135.77 high.
- Gilts and USTs are once again softer as recent pronounced dovish pricing eases incrementally ahead of US NFP (Fri), CPI (Tue) and then the FOMC/BoE next week.
- France sells EUR 4.99bln vs exp. EUR 4-5bln 2.75% 2027, 0.00% 2032, 1.25% 2034 OATs and 0.10% 2029 I/L OAT
- Spain sells EUR 2.93bln vs exp. EUR 2.5-3.5bln 0.60% 2029, 3.90% 2039 Bono and EUR 0.505bln vs. exp. 0.25-0.75bln 0.70% 2033 I/L
- BoE allots GBP 4bln of one-week funds in the short-term repo operation, a new record
Commodities
- WTI and Brent (+1.1%) are firmer intraday amid the pullback in the Dollar coupled with some corrective price action after yesterday’s slump.
- Spot gold tilts higher amid the softer Dollar but remains around recent ranges near USD 2,030/oz awaiting today’s US data ahead of Friday’s NFP; base metals also benefit from Dollar weakness.
- Russia's Kremlin spokesman said President Putin and Saudi Arabia's Crown Prince discussed OPEC+ cooperation which will continue, according to TASS.
- Kuwait supports the OPEC+ agreement and is committed to voluntary cuts, according to the state news agency.
- Algeria does not rule out extending voluntary oil cuts beyond Q1 or taking additional measures, according to the energy minister.
- Venezuela's PDVSA authorised loading for the first two crude cargoes bound for India following sanctions relief, which were sold by Eni (ENI IM) and Chevron (CVX) to Indian refiners.
- First Quantum (FM CA) Panama workers agreed to a severance package with the copper mine remaining halted with 10-20% of staff working, according to the union.
- Russian Kremlin: President Putin confirmed with Saudi's MBS the specific agreements reached at OPEC+
Geopolitics
- G7 leaders' statement noted commitment remains to restrict exports of all items critical to Russia's military and industrial base and they will work to further curtail Russia's use of the international financial system to further its war with Ukraine. Furthermore, G7 leaders are committed to tightening compliance and enforcement of the price cap policy on Russian oil, including by imposing sanctions on those engaged in deceptive practices.
- Senior Biden administration officials agreed that striking Houthis is the wrong course of action for now, according to Politico.
- White House's Kirby said they are watching the "worrisome" burgeoning defence relationship between Iran and Russia.
- US Secretary of State Blinken spoke with Guyanese President Ali and reaffirmed US unwavering support for Guyana's sovereignty, while it was separately reported that a Guyanese army helicopter reportedly went missing near the border with Venezuela, according to AFP News Agency.
US Event Calendar
- 07:30: Nov. Challenger Job Cuts -40.8% YoY, prior 8.8%
- 08:30: Nov. Continuing Claims, est. 1.91m, prior 1.93m
- 08:30: Dec. Initial Jobless Claims, est. 220,000, prior 218,000
- 10:00: Oct. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 2.2%
- 10:00: Oct. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. -0.2%, prior -0.2%
- 12:00: 3Q US Household Change in Net Wor, prior $5.49t
- 15:00: Oct. Consumer Credit, est. $8.5b, prior $9.06b
DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap
Our year-end EMR survey aimed at market participants is currently ongoing. We’ve got lots of questions about 2024, and are interested in how you expect the year ahead to play out. Questions include where you see the biggest risks, whether there’ll be a US recession, and the chance of Donald Trump being elected President. At the end we also ask about your favourite Christmas song. The survey will close on Friday and the link to answer is here. All responses are anonymous, and it’s possible to skip questions without answering and move on. All help gratefully received.
When it comes to the last 24 hours, markets have seen a sharp reversal in tone, with bond yields seeing a significant increase overnight and equities losing ground, despite a major bond rally taking place yesterday. The main catalyst for this have been comments from Bank of Japan officials, which have suddenly seen investors ramp up the chances that the BoJ could bring an end to their negative interest rate policy. For instance, yesterday saw Deputy Governor Himono discuss the impact of negative rates, pointing out that households could benefit from higher net interest income if rates were positive. Indeed, he also added that “there would be a sufficient possibility of achieving a positive outcome from the exit, since a wide range of households and firms would benefit from the virtuous cycle between wages and prices”. So some fairly positive remarks about what could happen in such a scenario.
This morning, we’ve since heard from BoJ Governor Ueda, who added to that speculation by saying that policy management would “become even more challenging from the year-end and heading into next year”. In turn, investors are now pricing in a 37% chance that the BoJ are going to end their negative interest rate policy at the meeting on December 19, and at one point overnight that even got as high as 45%. J apanese government bonds have also seen a sharp selloff, with yields on 10yr JGBs up +11.5bps overnight, and that move got further support after a 30yr auction saw weak demand. Moreover, the impact hasn’t just been confined to Japan, with yields on 10yr Treasuries up +6.8bps overnight to 4.17%.
This backdrop has meant equities have lost ground in Asia, with Japanese equities seeing the biggest underperformance and the Nikkei down by -1.88%. We’ll have to see what happens at the next meeting, but in some respects this echoes what happened in markets last December 2022, when there was a late selloff at year-end after the major central banks remained hawkish, and the BoJ announced a surprise shift in its yield curve control policy, which was seen as paving the way for a potential end to their ultra-loose monetary policy. Remember as well that a BoJ normalisation will have a broader impact, because it would remove one of the last global anchors that’s helped to keep borrowing costs at lower levels more broadly .
Before those overnight developments, yields had actually fallen to their lowest levels in months, with investors growing increasingly optimistic about a soft landing and the chance of rate cuts. Clearly overnight’s developments could change things, and we’ve got a very important round of central bank meetings next week, but several developments yesterday helped support the bond rally. For instance, the ADP’s report of private payrolls came in beneath consensus, which helped cement expectations that the Fed would be cutting rates in the months ahead. Moreover, oil prices saw their weakest day in three weeks, falling to a new 5-month low, which added to the sense that inflationary pressures were easing. And in turn, many risk assets also put in a decent performance, with Europe’s STOXX 600 (+0.52%) at a 4-month high, whilst US HY spreads reached their joint-tightest level in over 18 months. There was a bit of a late selloff in the US session however, and the S&P 500 (-0.39%) lost ground for a third consecutive day.
In terms of that bond rally yesterday, there were significant milestones in Europe, with yields on 10yr bunds (-4.8bps) closing at a 7-month low of 2.20%, and those on 10yr OATs (-6.5bps) closing at an 8-month low of 2.74%. Meanwhile in the US, 10yr Treasury yields were down -6.1bps to 4.105%, marking their lowest closing level in nearly four months. The decline was led by breakevens, with the 10yr breakeven down -3.8bps to 2.16%, its lowest since March.
Overnight however, we’ve seen that momentum reverse, and investors are pricing in a slightly more hawkish path for the Fed. For instance, t he chance of a rate hike by the March meeting has fallen from 76% on Tuesday, to 69% by yesterday’s close, and 65% now. Nevertheless, the US data did point in the direction of rate cuts yesterday, with the ADP’s report showing that growth in private payrolls fell to +103k in November (vs. +130k expected), which is in line with the slower pace of the last couple of months. So that added to the indicators pointing to a softer labour market. It also comes ahead of tomorrow’s US jobs report, where our US economists are anticipating that nonfarm payrolls will be up by +130k. Second, the revised estimates for Q3 productivity showed that nonfarm productivity was up by an annualised +5.2% in Q3, which is up from the previous estimate of +4.7%. In addition, unit labour costs were revised down to show an annualised -1.2% decline, which is larger than the -0.8% reading in the previous estimate. So the data was favouring a more sanguine inflation outlook.
That rally got further support from the latest decline in oil prices, which left Brent Crude (-3.76%) at $74.30/bbl, and WTI (-4.07%) at $69.38/bbl. In both cases, that’s their lowest level in 5 months, and there’s been growing evidence that this decline is feeding through into the real economy. For example, data from the AAA shows that US gasoline prices were down to $3.216 per gallon on Tuesday, the lowest since January 1. Other commodities also struggled yesterday, with copper (-1.48%) down for a third consecutive day, and Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (-2.03%) closed at a 5-month low.
For equities, yesterday brought another fairly divergent performance across regions and sectors. There was more weakness in the US, where the S&P 500 (-0.39%) lost ground for a third day running, and futures overnight are down a further -0.09%. Energy stocks were a notable underperformer amidst the latest decline in oil prices, with those in the S&P 500 down -1.64%, whilst the Magnificent 7 (-0.88%) also struggled. However, the e qual-weighted S&P 500 (+0.06%) saw a better performance, with 55% of S&P 500 constituents up on the day. Meanwhile, there were further milestones in Europe, with the DAX (+0.75%) closing at another all-time high thanks to a 7th consecutive advance, and the STOXX 600 (+0.52%) closed at a 4-month high. But overnight in Asia, we’ve seen a broader weakness in equities that hasn’t just been in Japan. For instance, the Hang Seng is down -1.20% to its lowest level since November 2022, whilst the Shanghai Comp (-0.21%), the CSI 300 (-0.26%) and the KOSPI (-0.14%) have all lost ground as well.
Elsewhere, the Bank of Canada announced their latest policy decision yesterday, leaving interest rates unchanged as expected. In their statement, it said they were “still concerned about risks to the outlook for inflation” and “prepared to raise the policy rate further if needed.” But as with other central banks, investors have become increasingly confident about the chance of a rate cut in recent weeks, and a 25bp cut is now fully priced in by the April meeting .
Looking at yesterday’s other data, German factory orders contracted by -3.7% in October (vs. +0.2% expected). In the meantime, the construction PMI for November fell to 36.2, which is the weakest it’s been since April 2020 at the height of the Covid-19 pandemic. Here in the UK, the construction PMI also fell to 45.5 in November.
To the day ahead now, and data releases include the US weekly initial jobless claims, German and Italian industrial production for October, along with Italian retail sales for October. Meanwhile from central banks, we’ll hear from the ECB’s Holzmann and Elderson.
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures Fall After Jobless Claims Rise; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings
Dow Jones futures dropped Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings.
Published:12/7/2023 7:35:43 AM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Jobless Claims; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings
Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings.
Published:12/7/2023 7:23:30 AM
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[Markets]
Stock Futures Stall as Investors Mull Recent Rally
U.S. stock futures stalled on Thursday on the back of three straight days of losses, as investors continue to digest a recent rally driven by hopes that waning inflation and slowing growth will see the Federal Reserve cut interest rates multiple times next year. S&P 500 futures were flat, with contracts tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq up 0.2%. Tech stocks, however, were outperforming, with the Nasdaq especially being buoyed by the likes of Alphabet and AMD after both tech companies unveiled new artificial intelligence products.
Published:12/7/2023 7:04:37 AM
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[Markets]
Washington Post Reporters, Other Employees Launch 24-Hour Strike
Washington Post Reporters, Other Employees Launch 24-Hour Strike
In the biggest fallout between the outlet's management and labor since the 1970s, reporters and other employees at the unjustifiably esteemed Washington Post have declared a 24-hour strike, following 18 months of negotiation that failed to placate them.
"Despite a year and a half of efforts, Post management has refused to bargain in good faith for a fair contract that keeps up with inflation and our competition," The Washington Post Guild said in a statement announcing that workers were walking out, with the strike in effect all Thursday, from midnight to midnight. The strike will include more than 700 employees, the union said, "including reporters, editors, cartoonists, visual journalists, advertising sales people and circulation drivers."
The union's grievances include "pay equity, raises that keep pace with inflation and our competitors, remote work policies, mental health supports, and a buyout package that seeks to reduce our workforce by 10 percent." Seeing the demand for mental health benefits, we can't help but think of Post reporter Taylor Lorenz, who -- despite having lived a charmed life -- memorably broke down crying on MSNBC, claiming she was the victim of PTSD and suicidal ideation springing from public reaction to her work:
In early November, the Post, which is owned by Amazon billionaire Jeff Bezos, announced that former Wall Street Journal publisher William Lewis would become the paper's new chief executive and publisher. At the same time, the Post disclosed that it was on pace to lose $100 million this year, and that it would slash its headcount by about 10% with a goal of ending up with about 940 journalists.
Given the Post's dire financial condition, it's not surprising that, on pay alone, the gap between the union and company positions is huge. According to the guild, workers are asking for a $210 weekly raise, and 4% a year over three years, while Post management is offering a slim $21-per-week bump, 2.25% in year one and 2% each in the second and third years of the contract.
The union asked WaPo consumers to join the strike, via an open letter to "our dedicated readers"
On Dec. 7, we ask you to respect our walkout by not crossing the picket line: For 24 hours, please do not engage with any Washington Post content. That includes our print and online news stories, podcasts, videos, games and recipes. Instead, share information about our strike and send a letter to Post leaders in support of the people who make this institution run.
This 24-hour Pearl Harbor Day strike is the biggest labor action against the Post since a pressman's strike that spanned 20 weeks, from October 1975 to February 1976. The country and the world would be better off if the strike lasted 24 years. A full catalogue of its sins would span many pages, but, for starters, this is an organization that:
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Helped sell the public on the utterly disastrous and amoral invasion of Iraq. "It is hard to imagine how anyone could doubt that Iraq possesses weapons of mass destruction," the trusted paper wrote in a February 2003 editorial green-lighting the regime change operation.
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Boosted the Russia Collusion hoax and collected a Pulitzer Prize for pumping out falsehoods that undermined Donald Trump's presidency. Along the way, the paper ran a bogus story based on the purported findings of an anonymous group called "PropOrNot," which accused ZeroHedge and many other outlets of being "routine peddlers of Russian propaganda" during the 2016 election.
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Unquestioningly supported the Covid lockdown, mask and vax regime, cheering on the public health establishment and power-mad government officials as they inflicted a multi-faceted catastrophe on society.
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[Markets]
Stock market news today: US futures mixed as focus fixes on jobs data
Fresh labor market data is again the focus for investors, though hints the BOJ could exit its ultraloose rates policy was rattling nerves.
Published:12/7/2023 6:33:37 AM
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[Markets]
Dollar General's same-store sales fall less than forecast
Dollar General's same-store sales fall less than forecast
Published:12/7/2023 6:27:24 AM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures Fall; Techs Rise As AMD, Google Bounce In Day 2 Reaction To AI News
Futures were mixed. AMD and Google bounced above key levels a day after both made big AI announcements.
Published:12/7/2023 6:08:40 AM
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[Markets]
World Gold Council says yellow metal's price will be hurt by soft landing
World Gold Council says yellow metal's price will be hurt by soft landing
Published:12/7/2023 6:02:29 AM
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[Markets]
Pentagon Grounds Entire 'Widow-Maker' Osprey Fleet After Fatal Japan Crash
Pentagon Grounds Entire 'Widow-Maker' Osprey Fleet After Fatal Japan Crash
The entire fleet of Osprey V-22 helicopters used by the US military was temporarily grounded on Wednesday evening. This decision came in response to a tragic incident one week prior, where a tiltrotor aircraft crashed off Japan's coast, resulting in the loss of eight lives.
AP News reported that the Air Force, Navy, and Marine Corps grounded hundreds of Osprey aircraft after a preliminary investigation into last week's crash found a possible mechanical issue.
"Preliminary investigation information indicates a potential materiel failure caused the mishap, but the underlying cause of the failure is unknown at this time," Lt. Gen. Tony Bauernfeind, head of Air Force Special Operations Command, said in a statement.
Last week's crash occurred on Wednesday, about 2 miles from Yakushima island. This area is part of Japan's Kagoshima prefecture and about 650 miles southwest of Tokyo.
A prolonged grounding might create a 'preparedness' issue for the military:
"If the Osprey grounding keeps going for a week or more, the inconvenience starts to become something more. And without the Osprey, training can be affected, and that affects readiness," Grant Newsham, a retired U.S. Marine Corps colonel and research fellow at the Japan Forum for Strategic Studies, told Reuters.
At least 50 individuals have lost their lives in either operating or testing the Osprey, which has earned the nickname "widow-maker."
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[Markets]
US Math Scores Hit All-Time Low On International Exam
US Math Scores Hit All-Time Low On International Exam
American students scored an all-time low in math on a major international exam, which provided the first comparison of global achievement since the pandemic radically changed education around the world.
According to data released Tuesday, American 15-year-olds had a 13 point plunge out of 1000 on the PISA (Program for International Student Assessment) exam, which was given last year to 620,000 students in 81 countries worldwide.
"These results are another piece of evidence showing the crisis in mathematics achievement," said Peggy Carr, commissioner of the National Center for Education Statistics, in a statement to WaPo. "Only now can we see that it is a global concern."
"These results put U.S. achievement in an international context at a very important time in our history."
From an average of 478 out of 1,000 in 2018, the U.S. math scores tumbled to 465 in 2022, marking an 18-point drop since the first exam in 2003. Countries typically known for their strong performance in math, such as Iceland, Norway, Poland, and Slovenia, also experienced significant declines.
Relatively winning...
That said, while the US's performance hit a new low in a vacuum, the relative ranking of the United States improved vs. other countries, even in math - where it's now 6th among the 81 countries in reading vs. 8th in 2018, 10th in science vs. 11th, and 26th in math vs. 29th.
Notably, performance in reading and science remained stable.
The PISA exams, conducted every three years and delayed this time due to the pandemic, are a barometer of literacy among 15-year-olds in math, science, and reading. Coordinated by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), these tests gauge how well students apply what they've learned, both in and out of the classroom.
One notable aspect is that the U.S. students reported longer school closures during the pandemic compared to other OECD countries. Yet, Carr says that the link between school closures and performance is weak, suggesting deeper underlying issues in the education system.
The pandemic-influenced performance on PISA was not unlike that of the country’s foremost standardized tests, called NAEP, for National Assessment of Educational Progress. Carr noted that both showed a “very parallel, significant decline.”
According to Education Secretary Miguel Cardona, the rising relative ranking comes "at an extremely tough time in education," but that "these results also show that we can’t be satisfied with the status quo in education." He also called for higher-level math classes, teacher training, strategies to close learning gaps, STEM initiatives, and other efforts to address this critical issue.
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[Markets]
3 reasons a 'boring' December could get interesting for stocks
This past November looked like a typical December — low volatility and a lot of gains. This December, however, with a few big economic moments, might be a little different this year.
Published:12/7/2023 5:05:36 AM
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[Markets]
The racial homeownership gap is widening. New rules might make it worse.
Banks are facing tougher capital requirements, which will probably make mortgages pricier for cash-poor home buyers and hurt minority borrowers.
Published:12/7/2023 5:05:36 AM
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[Markets]
Stock Split Watch: Is Chipotle Next?
Chipotle Mexican Grill (NYSE: CMG) stock continues to benefit from an impressive run. Such levels may lead investors to speculate on if or when Chipotle's board of directors will finally approve a stock split. Chipotle has never split its stock, and some stocks, such as the A shares of Berkshire Hathaway, have avoided such a move despite prices exceeding $500,000 per share.
Published:12/7/2023 4:22:58 AM
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[Markets]
"Energy Transition" - Reality Versus Rhetoric
"Energy Transition" - Reality Versus Rhetoric
Authored by Mark Mills via RealClear Wire,
This essay is based on testimony delivered November 29, 2023, before the Congressional Subcommittee on Environment, Manufacturing and Critical Materials, House Committee on Energy and Commerce.
It is often useful to contrast rhetoric with reality. The phrase, an “energy transition,” the goal to replace hydrocarbons, has origins that trace back to a 1977 speech by President Jimmy Carter. It was an “address to the nation” that commandeered national media, as is the convention on occasions when presidents seek to deliver momentous news. That address became known, infamously, as the “MEOW” speech because of President Carter framing the “energy challenge” as the “moral equivalent of war.” We find a lot of familiar rhetorical turns of phrase in that speech, not least the urgent need for a putative “energy transition” as being “the greatest challenge that our country will face during our lifetime,” and the need to “act quickly” in order to “have a decent world for our children and our grandchildren.” Back then, the urgency was motivated by the belief the world was running out of oil and natural gas.
Of course, in our time the “energy transition” rhetoric is directed at replacing a now over-abundant supply of those hydrocarbons, specifically in service of reducing carbon dioxide emissions. The latter is the latest “greatest challenge” facing humanity. Meanwhile, after a near half-century of transition policies and massive government spending since the MEOW speech, the reality today is that oil, gas, and coal today supply 82% of global energy.
To put that reality into a more recent context, since Y2k we’ve seen over $5 trillion of global spending on wind and solar and similar efforts to avoid hydrocarbons. That did reduce hydrocarbons’ share of world energy, but by just two percentage points. And the quantity, not share, of hydrocarbons consumed globally has increased by an amount equal, in energy-equivalent terms, to adding six Saudi Arabia’s worth of oil output. Those two decades of spending has led to solar and wind combined supplying just under 4% of world energy. For context: burning wood still supplies 10%.
But energy transitionists now claim this time is different. There are differences. The global population is far bigger wherein billions more people now aspire to the lifestyles of even the least fortunate in the wealthy West. Fortunately, because costs of wind, solar, and battery technologies are far lower than two decades back, those sources can now more significantly complement hydrocarbons. However, a pivotal reality is found in the nature and location of critical upstream industries that make the complementary energy sources possible.
Because of unavoidable, underlying physics, fabricating wind, solar and battery hardware entails a radical increase in the use of a range of minerals from copper and nickel to aluminum and graphite, and rare earths such as neodymium. The increases range from 700% to 4,000% more minerals per unit of energy production. While this reality still surprises many, for the cognoscenti, it is no longer news that the spending and mandates directed at wind, solar and EVs will require an astonishing, unprecedented increase in output from the old-school industries of mining and mineral refining. But that reality is also greeted by hollow rhetoric. Transitionists claim that subsidies and mandates will stimulate the market to meet the unprecedented volume and velocity of those demand increases. As the IEA has pointed out, the transition will require hundreds of billions of dollars invested in hundreds of massive new mines, somewhere.
Yet, every sober analysis of mining realities points to two facts. First, both existing and planned world mining capacity won’t come close, by factors for two- to ten-fold, to meeting the scale of minerals demands that will arise if the “transition” is in fact pursued. Second, in the meantime, China is the world’s biggest producer of most of the relevant energy minerals and has a global market share at least triple the U.S. share of hydrocarbons. (The U.S. is the world’s biggest hydrocarbon producer.) China produces over 60% of the world’s aluminum, refines over half of the world’s copper (the keystone metal of electrification), 90% of rare earths, 60% of refined lithium, 80% of graphite (used in all lithium batteries), and 50% to 90% of the specialty chemicals and polymer parts used to build lithium batteries, and over 80% of silicon solar modules. That dominance will not be easily or quickly altered.
The legislative rhetoric “requiring” domestic sourcing of energy minerals also rings hollow, as does political bragging about the repurposing of the Defense Production Act to dribble ‘mere’ millions of dollars at potential U.S. mines. Those eagerly publicized actions stand in contrast to the Administration’s canceling of domestic mining permits and launching multi-front regulatory rule changes that will make U.S. mining more difficult and more expensive, while simultaneously bending the elastic language in the domestic-sourcing legislation to qualify foreign, including Chinese suppliers of energy minerals and thus recipients of U.S. taxpayer subsidies.
There’s one more reality in service of x-raying the rhetoric. All of the transition efforts are, again, directed at cutting CO2 global emissions. Since minerals industries are energy intensive (global mining accounts for about 40% of all industrial energy use), China has a profound advantage in producing them because of its low-cost electric grid. That advantage comes from burning cheap coal that fuels two-thirds of power production there. It’s an advantage that won’t erode any time soon: China is building far more coal plants yet, at the rate of roughly one a week and will for close to a decade.
The U.S. Inflation Reduction Act will spend some $2 trillion to try and reduce CO2 emissions by about 1 gigaton a year (assuming fully deployed, and various elastic assumptions are true). A lot of that spending will end up directly and indirectly purchasing China’s products. Meanwhile, just the additional coal plants being built in China will lead to an additional 2 gigatons of CO2 emitted per year. Seems like a bad trade.
And, while energy transitionists vilify natural gas and vigorously oppose expansion of U.S. exports of LNG (liquified natural gas), the U.S. already saw a 1 gigaton per year reduction in emissions over the past decade, without massive subsidies or imports. That happened because of the domestic shale revolution that collapsed the cost of natural gas making it cheaper than coal.
If policymakers are determined to further reduce U.S. carbon dioxide emissions, there are some more sensible options than a rhetorical genuflection to an energy transition.
Rather than subsidize U.S. assembly of batteries using imported materials, instead encourage—subsidize if political compromise demands as much—domestic production of pipelines and ports to export more LNG. That would yield far greater emissions reductions per dollar spent since it would facilitate other nations now planning to burn more coal to instead import LNG. It would also benefit domestic industries, and the balance of trade, as well as yield non-trivial geopolitical benefits. A start down that path would be to legislate a change in the mission of the Department of Energy office that now regulates permissions to export LNG. It should be repurposed as an office of export assistance, just as there is such an office and mission in the Department of Agriculture for grain exports.
There are other options that would be more consonant with reality rather than rhetoric, and that would be far more cost effective than those driven by IRA subsidies. These would include a more sensible and expansive posture towards nuclear energy, the pursuit of improved combustion efficiency in all uses of hydrocarbons, and engaging serious efforts to resolve the barriers to expanding domestic mining and refining.
Thus far, however, rhetoric is still trumping reality.
Mark P. Mills is a senior fellow at the Manhattan Institute and a faculty fellow at Northwestern University’s McCormick School of Engineering and Applied Science. He is also a strategic partner with Montrose Lane (an energy-tech venture fund). Previously, Mills cofounded Digital Power Capital, a boutique venture fund, and was chairman and CTO of ICx Technologies, helping take it public in 2007. Mills is author of the book The Cloud Revolution: How the Convergence of New Technologies Will Unleash the Next Economic Boom and a Roaring 2020s (Encounter Books, 2021), and host of the new podcast The Last Optimist.
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[Markets]
LIVE: FTSE and European stocks fall as UK house prices rise for second month in a row
Average UK property values climbed 0.5% to £283,615 in November, some £1,300 more than October.
Published:12/7/2023 4:17:00 AM
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[Markets]
Kelley Blue Book: The 2024 Audi Q4 e-tron: Comfortable, composed and competitively priced
The 2024 Audi Q4 e-tron compact luxury SUV is the most affordable way into a new all-electric Audi.
Published:12/7/2023 4:10:23 AM
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[Markets]
Polish Central Bank Buys Gold According To Secret EU Plan
Polish Central Bank Buys Gold According To Secret EU Plan
By Jan Nieuwenhuijs of Gainesville Coins
The Polish central bank has bought roughly 300 tonnes of gold in recent years to bring its gold to GDP ratio in line with the average in the eurozone. For medium and large economies in the eurozone, to which Poland might be included in the future, an equal monetary gold to GDP ratio is a covert requirement for nations to be prepared for a shift to a new gold standard. Based on these requirements I expect Poland to buy an additional 130 tonnes of gold.
Introduction
For those that don’t know, the idea in the European Union (EU) is that eventually all countries adopt the euro and become part of the eurozone. At the time of writing the EU counts 27 countries, of which 20 form the eurozone. When the remaining 7 countries will introduce the euro is unknown.
Within the EU most notably Poland—but also Hungary—has been a large buyer of gold in the past years. Poland and Hungary are not yet included in the eurozone. After my publications “Europe Has Been Preparing a Global Gold Standard Since the 1970s. Part 2” and “Dutch Central Bank Admits It Has Prepared for a New Gold Standard” it’s irrefutable that there are secret agreements between nations in the eurozone to align gold reserves relative to GDP to be prepared for a new gold standard (or gold price targeting system). For Poland to be included in the euro area it has to match its gold to GDP ratio with the eurozone average.
On one hand, the agreements I’m referring to are secretive because some central banks in the eurozone refuse to be transparent regarding gold reserve alignment on grounds of “professional secrecy” laws (Belgium). On the other hand, some of these central banks have spontaneously stated they determine the size of their bullion holdings based on the gold to GDP ratios of large economies in close proximity (the Netherlands).
Of concern to our present study is Poland, eligible for eurozone inclusion, that is buying large volumes of gold which reaffirms the existence of the agreements. Not only are European central banks slowly revealing their gold strategy informally, all actions taken substantiate this policy.
Data Shows EU Central Bank Balance Gold to GDP Ratios
Last month a representative of the Dutch central bank (DNB) confessed in an interview that DNB holds gold worth about 4 percent of its GDP, which it has brought in line to the positions of France, Italy, and Germany. Bear in mind, the eurozone does not control the price of gold and thus their gold to GDP ratios, but there is a desire to harmonize these ratios throughout the eurozone, as illustrated in the chart below.
Supervision of total international reserves (gold and foreign exchange) versus GDP throughout the eurozone is even tighter. While European central banks have communicated that there are no legal obligations to coordinate reserves, they have likely agreed to recurrently use foreign exchange to equalize total reserves, and be able to exactly balance gold reserves among each other the very day they shift to a new gold standard. Periodically adjusting gold reserves is politically too sensitive.
Prior to 2017, Poland held 103 tonnes of monetary gold, which was just 1% of its GDP. To come on par with its European associates Poland needed to raise its metal reserves significantly and so it did: in 2018 the Polish central bank (NBP) started buying gold aggressively. By now it holds 334 tonnes, which is nearly 3% of Poland’s GDP.
As can be seen in the charts, Poland would need 450 tonnes to reach 4% of GDP, like its partners in the euro area. Additionally, NBP needs to transfer gold to the European Central Bank the moment it joins using the euro. According to my calculations that would be about 16 tonnes at the prevailing gold price. In total I expect NBP to buy another 130 tonnes.
Why Central Banks Harmonize Gold Reserves
In the late nineteenth century, as more countries joined the classical gold standard, demand for gold went up. On a gold standard, upward pressure on a country’s currency—as a result from increased demand for gold—created downward pressure on prices of goods and services denominated in that currency. Adoption of the gold standard involved deflationary forces.
The more skewed the current global distribution of official gold reserves, the less smooth a transition towards an international monetary system based on gold. Consequently, for every central bank that holds gold as its “Plan B” (a gold standard) there is an incentive to convince other central banks to do the same and balance the size of their bullion hoards among each other proportionally. So, when there is a severe financial crisis, which will fan out like wildfire in today’s intertwined markets, countries can stabilize their economies by shifting to a stable global gold standard. In my view, the majority of central banks are aware of this dynamic.
Conclusion
Next to Poland, Hungary has increased its gold reserves substantially from 3 tonnes in 2017 (0.1% of GDP) to 94 tonnes in 2021 (3% of GDP). Tellingly, the Hungarian central bank commented that gold “may play a stabilising role and act as a major line of defense under extreme market conditions or in times of structural changes in the international financial system.” The Czech Republic is also buying of late, though its gold to GDP ratio is still far below the regional average. I wouldn’t be surprised if the Czechs buy an additional 150 tonnes in the years ahead.
These developments are not likely to be limited to Europe. As I have demonstrated in previous analyses (here, here) China too is mindful of matching its official gold reserves to the size of its economy. According to my research, the Chinese central bank currently owns 5,220 tonnes of gold, which is worth almost 2% of its GDP. Perhaps this explains why the People’s Bank of China is buying gold hand over fist (approximately 700 tonnes annually) since the West froze Russia’s dollar assets. It needs to double its gold reserves and can't afford to wait.
A test case is Singapore; another large buyer of gold since 2021 and seemingly trying to catch up as well. In 2018 Singapore’s monetary gold to GDP ratio was 1%, now it’s at 3%. It will be interesting to see if Singapore stops buying gold when it has reached 4% (or whatever the average ratio in the eurozone at any point in the future). I will keep you posted.
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[Markets]
World Report Shows Nuclear Energy Production Fell By 4% Last Year
World Report Shows Nuclear Energy Production Fell By 4% Last Year
By Charles Kennedy of Oilprice.com
Nuclear energy’s share in global electricity production fell by 4% in 2022, year-on-year, reaching its lowest since the 1980s, according to the annual World Nuclear Industry report released on Wednesday.
In 2022, nuclear energy was responsible for generating 2,546 terawatt-hours (TWh) of electricity globally, representing 9.2% of total generation, with the U.S. generating the largest share, followed by China.
At a time when climate change is fostering a sort of renaissance for nuclear power, aging nuclear power plants are nearing shut-down and new projects face delays and cost hurdles.
For the first half of 2023, there were 407 reactors in operation across 32 countries, which represents a decline of four operating reactors from the previous year and a decline of 31 operating reactors from a decade ago, with progress on new reactors stymied by cost fundamentals and timeframes.
While the report notes that nuclear energy is increasingly being viewed as a route to net-zero carbon emissions, WNISR views this as a non-starter in terms of climate change solutions, emphasizing that it costs nearly four times more to build out nuclear reactors compared to wind and solar power solutions, calculating total lifetime cost and output.
In its annual report, the WNISR reached some highly critical conclusions about nuclear energy, noting that while changes in perception have been enormous, “in its broader characteristics, the global nuclear power industry today remains much as it was then--opaque when it comes to costs and timetables, prone to wildly inflated growth forecasts, and stubbornly fighting the rapid growth in renewables, although the gaps between the two in terms of growth, cost and performance widen by the year.”
Further, the WNISR said nuclear energy remains “an expensive and dangerous proposition financially, environmentally and now militarily, with insufficient liability protection and prospects of future Black Swan events that destroy whole regions, uproot populations, increase cancer occurrence, and threaten even distant ecosystems.”
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[Markets]
Zelensky Will "Pay For His Mistakes" Says Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko
Zelensky Will "Pay For His Mistakes" Says Kiev Mayor Vitali Klitschko
Authored by Paul Joseph Watson via Modernity.news,
Volodymyr Zelensky failed to prepare Ukraine properly for the war with Russia and will “pay for his mistakes,” warned Kyiv Mayor Vitali Klitschko.
The former heavyweight boxing champion made the comments to Swiss news outlet 20 Minuten.
Klitschko was asked if he was surprised to see Zelensky’s popularity declining across the country.
“No. People see who is effective and who is not, and there were and are many expectations. Zelensky is paying for the mistakes he made,” he responded.
The Ukrainian President failed to heed warnings that his armed forces were ill-prepared and “denied until the end that it would happen,” said Klitschko.
The Mayor questioned “why it was possible that the Russians were able to reach Kyiv so quickly” and chastised Zelensky for providing too much information “that didn’t match reality.”
Although he cautioned that Zelensky “will pay” for his mistakes, Klitschko urged Ukrainians that “we must support him until the end of the war,” while ruling out any prospects of him replacing Zelensky as president, at least until the end of the conflict.
Klitschko’s remarks arrive amidst a wave of disillusionment about the way the war is heading for Ukraine.
As we highlighted yesterday, Sascha Lehnartz, chief correspondent of German newspaper Die Welt, said the Ukrainian “counteroffensive seems to have failed” and that there was a sense Kyiv had “already lost” the war.
“The dispute between the president and the top military officer shows that the unified home front in Ukraine is crumbling,” wrote Lehnartz. “And every doubt expressed in Kyiv about Ukraine’s prospects of success is being reinforced in the corridors of European and American government headquarters.”
Last month, CNN reported on a Time article which quoted a top Zelensky aide as saying, “He deludes himself. We’re out of options. We’re not winning.”
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[Markets]
The Navy: Dead In The Water?
The Navy: Dead In The Water?
Authored by Brent Ramsey via RealClear Wire,
“Mission: The United States is a maritime nation, and the U.S. Navy protects America at sea. Alongside our allies and partners, we defend freedom, preserve economic prosperity, and keep the seas open and free. Our nation is engaged in long-term competition. To defend American interests around the globe, the U.S. Navy must remain prepared to execute our timeless role, as directed by Congress and the President.”
The preceding statement is from the U. S. Navy’s website.
There are many indicators that the Navy is at increasing risk of mission failure.
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Missing recruiting goals by thousands for two years in a row, missing its goal for FY 2023 by over 7000 new recruits. The impact of missing recruiting goals is cumulative. Its impact does not subside if in subsequent years deficits are not made up. Lack of manpower adds to the strain of a Navy struggling to meet its national priorities overseas. Failing to recruit enough people to man the Navy is a result of many factors. Since the Afghanistan debacle, the public’s faith in the military has plummeted to new lows. With relatively low unemployment, the competition for young people is high. American youth are less fit, less capable of serving in the military than at any time in our history. Fewer young people want to serve as the political left teaches them to hate our country, academia promotes socialism, and race hustlers malign our country for its supposed racism and white supremacy. Divisive ideologies like Critical Race Theory and Diversity, Equity, and Inclusion are now promoted vigorously up and down the chain of command in the Navy. These ideologies alienate the youth of what for generations was the most fertile recruiting grounds, white, southern, Christian Americans. This demographic is now increasingly averse to serving in our new politically correct Navy of DEI, Pride month, correct pronouns, drag queens, and transgender people. If the Navy cannot recruit now for the existing numbers of ships we have, we have no hope whatsoever of filling out the ranks of a Navy with much higher numbers of ships.
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Recently, due to the international wars simultaneously in Ukraine and Israel, and high tension in the Taiwan strait/South China Sea, the U.S. Navy had an almost unprecedented 8 Carriers at sea at the same time. The only three not at sea were unavailable due to long-term maintenance. Normally, the Navy might have three or four carriers at sea at one time. Navy ships and crews continually operating wear out rapidly. Typical deployments last 6 months. The USS Ford has been deployed for 7 months and SECDEF just extended its deployment in the eastern Med for the second time. The longer the deployment the more worn out the crew and the higher rates of equipment failures become. As deployments go on for longer and longer, the size of the crew shrinks due to illness, pregnancy, injury, and suicides. Typically ships returning to home port after a lengthy deployment are missing a substantial number of the deploying crew. This puts much more stress and strain on the remaining crewmen. The international situation with multiple wars demanding our attention simultaneously is eroding our Navy’s readiness at a high rate. When the ships and their crews wear out, there will be no alternative but to return them to port for re-fit and rest for the crews regardless of whatever pressing mission the ship is on. That the Navy does not have enough ships is now obvious to even the most casual observer when multiple hot spots in distant seas occur. When the proverbial stuff hits the fan, the very first question everyone, including the President asks is, “Where is the nearest carrier?”
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The Navy’s high suicide rate over a lengthy period demonstrates the leadership’s tragically being unable to ameliorate the problem. The higher the OP tempo, the longer the deployments, the more arduous the maintenance periods are, the more inadequate berthing arrangements are for ships in long term overhaul, aggravate already high stress environments and seemingly make things unbearable for too many of our sailors. The Navy seems content to muddle along with scores of sailors killing themselves year after year and the heart-rending loss of life continuing as an unsolved problem. We Navy folk like to call ourselves warriors and most of us fit the description of selflessly putting ourselves in harm’s way for the benefit of others, for the benefit of our nation. But what does it say about our culture to have so many warriors who end their own lives because somehow our organization does not recognize their despair until it is too late, and they have taken the irreversible step and ended their own life? Considering how extremely selective the Navy is at screening those who volunteer to serve, why do such high numbers of exceptional citizens, with all that the Navy has to offer, choose to end their own lives? Are our leaders so overwhelmed by the work the Navy has them do that they cannot be close enough to their sailors to recognize those who are in extremis in time to help them?
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Notable institutional leadership failures in multiple major program areas and multiple high profile operational failures are now far too common. Examples include well documented cases such as the LCS and Zumwalt ship classes, the USS Ford class’s cost overruns, lateness, and multiple of its ship systems not being fully operational (EMALS, ammo elevators, arresting gear, etc.) even years after being in commission. An egregious example of a mammoth leadership failure was the loss of the USS Bonhomme Richard, a multi-billion-dollar capital ship that due to negligence was allowed to burn at the side of a pier, a $3B loss with no replacement. A total of 45 Navy leaders were disciplined due to this one incident. The grounding of the USS Connecticut with this vital attack submarine being out of commission for years for repairs. The USS Gettysburg has been out of commission for over 8 years undergoing modernization. Four of the seven cruisers selected for modernization will instead be de-commissioned after the Navy has spent billions on upgrades. The collisions of the USS McCain and USS Fitzgerald with commercial shipping were failures of leadership that led to the deaths of 17 sailors.
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In the 2018 National Defense Authorization Act the Congress established the size of the Navy to be 355 battle force ships. According to the United States Naval Institute as of 6 November 2023 there are currently 291 battle force ships in the Navy. The predictions from the Congressional Research Service are that the size of the Navy will stay relatively the same for the rest of this decade before it slowly starts to increase in size in the 2030’s. In 2022, then CNO Gilday announced that the requirement is actually much higher, in excess of 500 battle force ships. Multiple other experts’ analyses confirm those higher numbers. The PRC’s PLAN is already at 350 combatants and building at a rate at least four times that of the U.S..
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In the FY 2023 NDAA there was a provision to establish a Commission to study the Navy and its requirements. The report of the Commission is due to the Congress by July 1, 2024. As of this writing, the commission has not even been formed. The Secretary of the Navy and the CNO should be urgently pressing Congress to get this Commission up and running. Furthermore, the Navy should be proactive in suggesting Navy advocates serve on the Commission or serve on the staff of the Commission. It is vital for the defense of the nation to have the definitive knowledge of what the Navy’s true requirements are in 2023 in the face of multiplying threats all over the world.
Conclusion: All of these factors outlined above make it clear that our Navy is in extremis. There are not enough ships to do the mission nor enough manpower to man the ships optimally. Deployments are too long, and our people and ships are wearing out. Recruiting is stagnant. Too few ships, not enough people, not enough shipbuilding, or repair capacity have us on the brink of mission failure. To put the size of the Navy in perspective, when this officer went aboard ship in 1970 to conduct anti-submarine patrols looking for Soviet ballistic missile submarines, the Navy had 792 battle force ships in commission. We now have 291. Then we had a cold war against one adversary, the old Soviet Union. Today we have adversaries all over the world and are trying to perform the mission quoted above with a tiny fraction of the ships we had decades ago. As a maritime nation with treaty allies all over the world coupled with our dependence upon the sea for 90% of the commerce that keeps our economy running, it is a travesty that such neglect of the Navy has occurred. Who is at fault for this neglect? Congress is ultimately at fault as it holds the power of the purse. However, it is incumbent upon senior Navy leaders to make the case for the right size Navy. The CNO and every other Navy flag who testifies before Congress should be sounding the alarm about the imminent failure of the Navy to perform its mission now in “peacetime” with multiple hots spots in Europe, the Middle East, and in the Taiwan Strait and South China Sea, and even more importantly in the next actual fighting war. Someone long since should have laid his stars on the table to make the point to politicians that we need more ships and more manpower for the survival of our nation. Our way of life and our very lives are at stake if we do not rebuild our Navy to an adequate size to perform its vital worldwide mission.
CAPT Brent Ramsey, (USN, ret.) is a writer on Defense matters. He has been featured in Washington Examiner, Real Clear Defense, Armed Forces Press, CD Media, American Thinker, and Patriot Post. He is a Vice President with the Calvert Group, a Board of Advisors member for the Center for Military Readiness and STARRS, and a member of the Military Advisory Group for Congressman Chuck Edwards (NC-11).
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Newswires: China’s exports rise in November, snapping 6-month decline
China's exports beat expectations in November, ending a six-month decline stemming from weaker global appetite for the country's goods.
Published:12/6/2023 10:26:45 PM
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[Markets]
Dodgy Dick: Top Democrat Won't Commit To Subpoenaing Jeffrey Epstein Flight Logs
Dodgy Dick: Top Democrat Won't Commit To Subpoenaing Jeffrey Epstein Flight Logs
Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),
A powerful Democrat is refusing to commit to issuing a subpoena for more transparent versions of Jeffrey Epstein's flight logs.
 U.S. Senate Majority Whip Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) in Washington on April 18, 2023. (Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images)
Sen. Dick Durbin (D-Ill.), the chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, declined to tell a reporter or Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-Tenn.), who wants the subpoena issued, that he would support the effort.
Ms. Blackburn, in late November, tried bringing forth an amendment for a vote that would authorize the subpoena but was blocked by GOP colleagues, who invoked a rule that led to the hearing ending after about two hours.
When Mr. Durbin was asked on Dec. 5 whether he'd issue the subpoena, he demurred.
"I don't know anything about his flight logs. I know who Epstein was but I certainly don't know anything about the issue," he told a Fox News reporter in Washington.
Mr. Durbin also falsely said that the matter "has never been raised by anyone."
After entering a committee hearing in which members questioned the FBI's director on various topics, Mr. Durbin told Ms. Blackburn that he was not aware that one of her amendments was a subpoena for Mr. Epstein's flight logs.
"I do not know anything about this request," he said.
An aide for Democrats on the Senate Judiciary Committee earlier this month acknowledged that Ms. Blackburn's attempt to issue the subpoena was blocked during the Nov. 30 committee hearing before noting that Republicans, led by Ranking Member Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.) invoked a rule that ended discussion on amendments for the subpoenas that were ultimately approved for a billionaire and conservative activist linked to Supreme Court justices.
Mr. Graham's office did not respond to a request for comment.
Mr. Durbin "falsely claimed he was not aware of Senator Marsha Blackburn’s amendment to subpoena Jeffrey Epstein’s flight logs," Ms. Blackburn's office said in a statement.
Ms. Blackburn was prevented from speaking in the November hearing by Republicans after Mr. Durbin asked her to kick off the amendment process. But in an earlier hearing in November, she said she'd filed for a subpoena for Mr. Epstein's flight logs.
"Given the numerous allegations of human trafficking and abuse surrounding Mr. Epstein, we’ve got to identify everyone who could have participated in his horrific conduct," she said at the time.
Ms. Blackburn blamed Mr. Durbin and other Democrats for there not being a vote yet on the proposal.
“It’s perplexing why Chairman Durbin blocked Senator Blackburn’s amendment request to subpoena Jeffrey Epstein’s estate," a spokesperson for Ms. Blackburn told The Epoch Times via email.
"I think you are fully aware that I had two amendments, one dealing with Epstein," Ms. Blackburn said on Tuesday. Mr. Durbin said he was not aware. "I brought it up previously," Ms. Blackburn said. Mr. Durbin said she did not.
The subpoena "should be at the top of this committee's to-do list," she also said.
A request for comment to a spokesperson for Mr. Durbin was not returned.
"I did not know that you offered that amendment. I want a point on the record you and I have never personally discussed this, have we?" Mr. Durbin said.
Ms. Blackburn said they spoke briefly after the abrupt end to the late November hearing.
"You never mentioned what subject matter your amendment was," Mr. Durbin said.
"In committee, I brought up the subject matter of my amendment three weeks prior," Ms. Blackburn said.
"Not in my presence," Mr. Durbin said.
"I will pull the transcript for you," Ms. Blackburn said.
 Then-President Bill Clinton welcomes Jeffrey Epstein and Ghislaine Maxwell to the White House in a 1993 file image. (William J. Clinton Presidential Library)
FBI Director Questioned
Ms. Blackburn also told Christopher Wray, the FBI's director, that she wanted more information from the bureau regarding Mr. Epstein, a convicted sex offender who died in prison while awaiting trial on sex trafficking charges.
"There are disturbing allegations that the FBI failed to investigate the sex trafficking allegations," Ms. Blackburn said, noting that one woman who said she was sexually abused by Mr. Epstein has said she took evidence to the FBI, but the bureau refused to investigate.
Mr. Wray said the FBI worked together with prosecutors to bring the sex trafficking charges and that it has been a while since he looked at the case.
"What we need from you is a complete investigation. Why the FBI did not take this on, and then getting to the bottom of what is an enormous sex trafficking ring and listening to the survivors," Ms. Blackburn said.
While the flight logs have been released before, that version was heavily redacted. Ms. Blackburn wondered whether a more transparent version could be released.
"Let me offer to get with my team and figure out if there is more information we can provide," Mr. Wray said.
The FBI's national press office told The Epoch Times in an email on Dec. 6 that it did not have anything to add, after being asked what Mr. Wray and his team had figured out.
RFK Jr. on Flights
Some of the most powerful people in the world flew on Mr. Epstein's private plane, according to the logs and witness testimony, including former President Bill Clinton and former Senate Majority Leader George Mitchell.
Robert F. Kennedy Jr., who is running as an independent in the 2024 race, said this week he was on the plane twice.
Mr. Kennedy said on Fox that his now-former wife had "some kind of relationship with Ghislaine Maxwell," an associate of Mr. Epstein who has been convicted of sex trafficking of minors.
Mr. Kennedy said one of the flights took place in 1993 and that he flew to Florida with his wife and some of his children.
"I went then, and another occasion, I flew again with my family with, I think, four of my children," Mr. Kennedy said. "I have been very open about this from the beginning. This was in ’93, so it was 30 years ago. It was before anybody knew about Jeffrey Epstein’s, you know nefarious issues. And I agree with you that all of this information should be released. We should get real answers on what happened to Jeffrey Epstein and any of the high-level political people that he was involved with. All of that should be open to the public.”
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[Markets]
'Dark Gina' Elicits Blistering Rebuke From China, Which Vows To Circumvent Tech Curbs
'Dark Gina' Elicits Blistering Rebuke From China, Which Vows To Circumvent Tech Curbs
So much for the 'stabilizing ties' narrative... China is blistering angry after weekend remarks by US Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo, who labeled Beijing "the biggest threat we’ve ever had" while lauding efforts that seek to block it from cutting-edge semiconductors.
China's response was swift at the start of this week: "The US should stick to the right perception and work with China to deliver on the common understandings reached in the San Francisco meeting," foreign ministry spokesman Wang Wenbin had said Monday. America must "stop seeing China as a hypothetical enemy and saying one thing but doing another," the spokesman continued.
 AP file image
Raimondo called for tighter export controls on advanced tech at the annual Reagan National Defense Forum in California.
"On matters of national security, we got to be eyes wide open about the threat. This is the biggest threat we’ve ever had," she said. "We can't let China get these chips. Period," she said at one point.
She agreed with the Biden administration line about cooperation and managing competition in certain spheres but ultimately concluded, "Make no mistake about it, China’s not our friend."
But China says its ability to circumvent the US tech curbs is a sure thing:
Wang, the Foreign Ministry spokesman, said that stance exposed the "Cold War mentality" of the US and its desire for hegemony. He also indicated that his nation would get around the tech curbs eventually.
"The violation of the rules and regulations of the free-trade market is just like building a dam with a sieve," he said. "No matter how hard you try, the water will just flow through it."
See more of Raimondo's remarks at the Reagan National Defense Forum below...
Some highlights from Raimondo's remarks:
* * *
Host: "Huawei released their new smartphone..." Raimondo: "[China's] capable of doing very bad things, and we're gonna deny the entire country this class of equipment. We can't let China get these chips. Period."
"Listen, America leads the world in artificial intelligence. Period. Full stop. We're a couple years ahead of China. No way are we going to let them catch up. We cannot let them catch up. So we're going to deny them our most cutting edge technology."
She's fed up with semiconductor firms whining: "newsflash: democracy is good for your business. Rule of law, here and around the world, is good for your businesses. It might make for a tough quarterly shareholder call, but in the long run, it's worth you working for us to defend our national security." More export controls are coming...
"Host: Are there other U.S. origin products or types of technologies that you are looking at in a similar fashion right now. Raimondo: Absolutely, in biotechnology, AI models, AI products, cloud computing, supercomputing. So short answer is yes."
On US-China dialogue: "I would say communication is a good thing but don't confuse communication with weakness or softness. On matters of national security, we've got to be eyes wide open about the threat. This is the biggest threat we've ever had, and we need to meet the moment. The world needs us to manage our relationship with China responsibly. To avoid escalation, we've got to do all that, but make no mistake about it, China's not our friend, and we need to be eyes wide open about the extent of that threat.
"I am ready to win, and I'm ready to do that with all of you, but it's time to open our aperture and challenge the way we've done business in every way if we're going to meet the threat China poses. And if we're going to do what needs to be done with this technology."
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[Markets]
GOP debate: Chris Christie says Trump’s China tariffs helped drive inflation
GOP debate: Chris Christie says Trump’s China tariffs helped drive inflation
Published:12/6/2023 9:18:01 PM
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[Markets]
Chinese Stocks Are Trading Near A Record Discount To Peers
Chinese Stocks Are Trading Near A Record Discount To Peers
By Ye Xie, Bloomberg Markets Live reporter and strategist
While stocks in India make new all-time highs, investors in Chinese stocks are staring down a dismal year of losses. In fact, equities from the world’s No. 2 economy have hardly ever traded at such a deep discount to emerging-market peers.
There’s no shortage of negative headlines in China these days. Moody’s Investors Service’s downgrade of China’s credit outlook this week is just another example, underlying the nation’s structural problems of a heady debt load, an aging population and a decline in the potential growth rate.
These structural issues are manifested in the stock market. The MSCI China Index has lost 15% this year, compared with a 2% increase in the gauge for emerging-market shares and a 15% gain in the MSCI India Index and In fact, the MSCI India Index has outperformed the China gauge by 100% since the beginning of 2021.
It may not be just a flash in the pan. According to Morgan Stanley, China’s underperformance versus India could be just “the beginning of a new long-run trend.”
The MSCI China Index is trading at 8.9 times of earnings over the next 12 months, compared with 11.4 of MSCI Emerging Markets Index. Apart from a brief period at the onset of the pandemic, the 22% discount marks the biggest since Bloomberg started to compare the data in 2006.
The stocks are trading cheaply for a reason. Chinese companies’ return on equity has been persistently declined since 2011, reflecting deteriorating investment opportunities.
They have missed earnings estimates for nine consecutive quarters, and bottoming isn’t likely in the first quarter, according to Morgan Stanley’s strategists including Laura Wang. The strategists expect the MSCI China to return 7% next year, with an upside potential of 25%, and a downside risk of 34%.
Investors are turning to the upcoming Central Economic Work Conference for clues on how Beijing will set the economic agendas for next year. So far, China hasn’t done enough to boost confidence. And “Incremental and baby-step support are not enough to turning around the sentiment,” said Jason Hsu, chief investment officer at Rayliant Global Advisors.
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[Markets]
Nikki Haley says her big corporate supporters won’t affect her policies
Nikki Haley says her big corporate supporters won’t affect her policies
Published:12/6/2023 8:33:58 PM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Newswires: Rakuten Bank shares fall sharply in Tokyo after parent’s plans to pare stake
Rakuten Bank's shares fell sharply Thursday morning after parent Rakuten Group said it planned to pare its stake in the lender.
Published:12/6/2023 8:27:28 PM
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[Markets]
Citi Sees Senate Flipping, Ponders 'Red Wave' In 2024
Citi Sees Senate Flipping, Ponders 'Red Wave' In 2024
As the 2024 U.S. election cycle kicks into gear, Citigroup ponders the potential fiscal implications under different election outcomes.
Perhaps most interesting is their prediction of a high likelihood of Republicans gaining control of the Senate, although falling short of a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority??. This, however, does not guarantee smooth sailing for the GOP. With the Democrats' current grip on the Senate (51-49), Republicans would need to not only retain competitive seats but also snatch at least one from key states like Florida or Texas??.
House Dynamics: Democrats' Favorable Map
According to the report, Democrats are in a favorable position when it comes to regaining control of the House - needing to net just five seats. This contrasts with the 16 Republican districts classified as "toss-ups," implying yet another shakeup which would cast all sorts of GOP investigations into disarray.
Presidential Race: Trump's Lead and Third-Party Wildcards
Donald Trump's enormous lead over the GOP field means he's almost guaranteed the Republican nomination, absent?. That said, the presence of a third-party candidate like Robert F. Kennedy Jr. could throw a wrench in the works (theories on just who RFK Jr.'s run will most negatively affect vary). Although his current impact seems neutral, pulling votes from both Trump and Biden, his influence cannot be ignored?.
Trump is currently smoking the entire GOP lineup, and has recently overtaken President Biden in hypothetical match-ups.
Fiscal Policy: A Divided Government's Dilemma
According to Citi, under two of the three most likely election outcomes, the U.S. would see a split legislature. This division would mean further gridlock, with bipartisan cooperation required to pass any fiscal legislation - a feat that has proven challenging in recent times??. Potential areas of agreement could include defense and infrastructure spending, as well as industrial policy through legislated subsidies, similar to those in the bipartisan CHIPS Act?.
"Red Wave" Scenario: Tax Cuts and Deficit Concerns
Should a "red wave" occur, giving Republicans control of both the presidency and the legislature, Citi believes that the reconciliation process to brute-force policy could be a game-changer. It would allow the GOP to pass legislation on taxes, spending, and the debt limit with just a simple Senate majority.
Another likely outcome of a red wave would be the likely renewal of Trump-era individual tax cuts, which could significantly increase the deficit?.
According to the Congressional Budget Office, if Trump's 2017 Tax Act provisions are extended, it would increase the deficit by $134 billion in 2026 and $346 billion in 2027.
Even in a divided government, some of the Trump tax cuts could be extended, which Congress did in 2011 in a bipartisan vote to extend Bush-era tax policies.
Fiscal Restraint Amid Growing Deficits
Citi's analysis also emphasizes an increased focus on fiscal restraint due to growing deficits, which could be larger than anticipated in 2023. According to the report, "The 2024 deficit is boosted in part because of automatic stabilizers that would kick in during a recession."
With deficits projected to remain elevated in 2024 and 2025, there will likely be a reduced appetite for additional fiscal stimulus, especially in an election year with ongoing concerns about inflation?
The key takeaway? Brace for uncertainty and keep a close eye on the evolving political landscape.
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[Markets]
MarketWatch First Take: AMD’s new products represent the first real threat to Nvidia’s AI dominance
No matter how dominant Nvidia remains with its popular GPUs, AMD plans to win share in the market by being the No. 2 company.
Published:12/6/2023 7:07:31 PM
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[Markets]
Biden Tells Israel To Wrap Up War By January As An Estimated 80% Of Gazans Displaced
Biden Tells Israel To Wrap Up War By January As An Estimated 80% Of Gazans Displaced
With a ground war now raging in the Gaza Strip's second largest city of Khan Younis in the south, civilians have nowhere left to go. The Strip's southern half was initially declared a 'safe zone' by Israel's military, but it now says top Hamas commanders are hiding out there.
The United Nations has issued a fresh statement estimating that more than 80% of Gaza's population has been displaced. The UN issued a figure of 1.87 million people who have been driven from their homes.
Further the AP cited that UN as saying "fighting is now preventing distribution of food, water and medicine outside a tiny sliver of southern Gaza" and that the latest military evacuation orders are "squeezing people into ever-smaller areas of the south."
 Via CNN/Getty Images
And the ground war and aerial bombardment is expected to continue with great intensity through at least January. "We are in a high-intensity operation in the coming weeks, then probably moving to a low-intensity mode," an Israeli official told CNN.
The Biden administration last week reportedly warned Israel that the clock is ticking on its military operation, and that it's unlikely to have even "months" to fight given domestic and international pressure is ratcheting in response to the soaring death toll (which according to Palestinian sources has surpassed 16,000 killed in Gaza).
According to details of the message delivered to Israeli leaders:
Officials from the Biden administration have marked the start of 2024 as the target date for ending Israel’s massive military campaign against terror group Hamas.
Officials have told their Israeli counterparts that this is not a deadline but a target. According to the administration, Israel is close to exhausting the extensive ground invasion it launched in late October in the aftermath of the Oct. 7 massacre and should switch to more focused efforts to bring down Hamas.
"The gap between us and the Americans is around three weeks to a month — nothing that cannot be resolved," an Israeli diplomatic source told Al-Monitor on condition of anonymity.
Israel reportedly wants a timeline of at least till the end of January and not the month's start. Some observers have warned it could in reality take "years" to fully dismantle Hamas.
According to analysis in The Washington Post, Hamas is still intact and its numbers have been barely dented. "At least 5,000 Hamas militants have been killed, according to three Israeli security officials, leaving the majority of the group’s estimated 30,000-strong military wing intact," the report says based on Israeli defense sources.
Scenes of Rashid Street west of Gaza City show an entire large area obliterated...
"This is going to be a long haul," a spokesman for the Israeli military, Lt. Col. Richard Hecht, told the Post. "We need the time," he said while acknowledging the growing international pressure.
But as WaPo underscores, "The cost has already been devastating, with nearly 16,000 Palestinians killed, including more than 5,000 children, according to Gaza’s Ministry of Health." By comparison there hasn't been this many civilian deaths in all of the Ukraine war, which is approaching two years of fighting.
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[Markets]
"Let Me Be Clear": Harvard Backpedals After Donors Slam 'Insane' Protections For Pro-Genocide Students
"Let Me Be Clear": Harvard Backpedals After Donors Slam 'Insane' Protections For Pro-Genocide Students
Harvard University has issued a statement on Wednesday in a furious attempt at damage control, after President Claudine Gay refused to condemn students calling for the genocide of Jews.
During Tuesday testimony in front of the US House Education and the Workforce Committee, Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-NY), a Harvard grad, asked the presidents of Harvard, Penn, and MIT whether "calling for the genocide of Jews" violates their schools' code of conduct or constitutes bullying or harassment, referring to calls for "intifada" chanted during several school protests.
In response, MIT President Sally Kornbluth said that they would be "investigated as harassment if pervasive and severe," while Penn's Liz Magill said "it is a context-dependent decision" that could be considered harassment "if the speech becomes conduct."
Harvard's Gay echoed Magill, saying that it depends on context, such as being "targeted at an individual."
Major donors rage
In response to the comments, activist investor and Harvard alum Bill Ackman said "They must all resign in disgrace," adding "if a CEO of one of our companies gave a similar answer, he or she would be toast within the hour."
"There’s certain speech that is certainly permissible under the First Amendment," Ackman later told The David Rubenstein Show on Bloomberg TV. "People can be critical of Israel, the Israeli government. But, sadly, there are kids who have been spat on or been roughed up, or have been harassed, or antisemitic statements have been put on Slack message boards on campus."
Billionaire Dan Loeb also weighed in - saying in reply to Ackman: "The cowardly and unprincipled responses show them each to be unfit to lead."
Meanwhile, Penn alumnus and founder of AQR Capital Management Clif Asness said "I wish I could quit giving twice," in a post on X, adding "This is just insane. Insane."
"Let me be clear"
In response to the outrage, Gay said that "There are some who have confused a right to free expression with the idea that Harvard will condone calls for violence against Jewish students," adding "Let me be clear (as if it's our fault for understanding her galaxy brain statements on Tuesday): Calls for violence or genocide against the Jewish community, or any religious or ethnic group are vile, they have no place at Harvard, and those who threaten our Jewish students will be held to account."
Why not just say that during testimony, Gay?
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures: AMD Sees $400 Billion-Plus AI Chip Market — And Wants A Big Piece
The major indexes reversed from morning highs. AMD unveiled an AI chip, saying the overall market could top $400 billion in a few years.
Published:12/6/2023 5:43:20 PM
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[Markets]
Why Brenda Lee may not see much money from her No. 1 holiday hit
Why Brenda Lee may not see much money from her No. 1 holiday hit
Published:12/6/2023 5:12:33 PM
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[Markets]
COP28: The Globalist Agenda Has Never Been More Obvious
COP28: The Globalist Agenda Has Never Been More Obvious
Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,
As of this morning, we are six days into the two-week climate change summit in Dubai.
Yes, as we can all note for the thousandth time, literal fleets of private jets have descended on the desert so that bankers and billionaires can talk about making sure we don’t drive anymore or eat too much cheese.
What’s on the agenda? Globalism – and it’s never been more obvious.
President of Brazil Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva essentially said as much:
The planet is fed up with unfulfilled climate agreements. Governments cannot escape their responsibilities. No country will solve its problems alone. We are all obliged to act together beyond our borders,”
Thursday’s opening remarks were predictably doom-laden, with His Royal Highness Charles III and UN Secretary-General António Guterres falling into a traditional good cop/bad cop hustle.
Charlie warned that we are embarking on a “vast, frightening experiment”, asking “how dangerous are we actually prepared to make our world?”
While Tony offered just the barest, thinnest slice of hope to world leaders:
It is not too late […] You can prevent planetary crash and burn. We have the technologies to avoid the worst of climate chaos – if we act now.”
The rest of the two weeks will doubtless be committed to lobbyists, bankers, royals and politicians deciding exactly how they are going to “act”. Or, more accurately, how they are going to sell their pre-agreed actions to their cattle-like populations.
They are literally telling us their plans, all we have to do is listen.
For example, Friday and Saturday were given over to the “World Climate Action Summit”, at which over 170 world leaders pledged support for Agenda 2030.
The COP28 website proudly boasts about it:
On 1 and 2 December, 176 world leaders gathered for the World Climate Action Summit (WCAS), signaling a new era of climate action on the road to 2030.
That would be 176 global leaders out of roughly 195 countries, so they have over 90 per cent of the world covered.
Among the agreements and pledges signed at the summit so far is the “Emirates Declaration on Sustainable Agriculture, Resilient Food Systems and Climate Action”. Which, according to the BBC, pledges to:
"take aim at planet-warming food”
We’ve all played this game long enough to know what that means, haven’t we?
It means no more meat and dairy, and a lot more bugs and GMO soy cubes.
They never say that, of course. In fact, they never mention any specific foods or practices at all [you can read the whole declaration here].
Instead, they just use phrases like “orient policies [to] reduce greenhouse gas emissions”, or “shifting from higher greenhouse gas-emitting practices to more sustainable production and consumption approaches”
Maintaining plausible deniability via vague language is part of the dance, but anyone paying attention knows exactly what they are talking about.
It doesn’t stop there. World leaders have also agreed to establish a “loss and damage fund”, a 430 million dollar resource for developing countries that need to “recover” after being “damaged” by climate change.
Ajay Banga, head of noted charitable organisation the World Bank, is all in favour of the idea and will be supporting the plan by agreeing to “pause” debt repayments from any government impacted by climate change.
We know how this works, we saw the same thing in the IHR amendments following Covid – it’s a bribe pool. One that serves to both further the narrative of climate change and instruct policy in the third world. Any developing nation’s government that wants a slice of that pie will have to publicly talk about all the negative impacts climate change has on their country.
At the same time, to get the money, they will almost certainly have to agree to “adopt climate-friendly policies” and/or submit their climate policies to an “independent panel of experts” appointed by the UN.
Right on cue, the President of Kenya has already spoken up:
In eastern Africa, catastrophic flooding has followed the most severe drought the region has seen in over 40 years…A tendency to ignore Africa’s developmental and industrial needs is no longer a tenable position…Turning Africa into a green powerhouse is not just essential for the continent, it is also vital for global industrialisation and decarbonisation.”
…you can almost see the dollar signs in his eyes.
Alongside the food pledge and loss fund, we have the Global Renewables and Energy Efficiency Pledge, which aims to increase reliance on “green energy”. Over 120 countries signed that one.
And then there’s the Global Methane Pledge, which has been signed by 155 governments as well as 50 oil companies.
These companies represent around half the world’s oil production, and just want to help the planet, they have no financial stake in this situation at all.
There’s the smaller Declaration on Climate, Relief, Recovery and Peace, which was signed by only 70 countries (and 39 NGOs). That one emphasizes the link between war and carbon emissions and aims to “boost financial support for climate resilience in war-torn and fragile settings”, whatever that means in real terms I’m not sure.
And, of course, 124 countries (including the EU and China) have signed the inevitable ‘Declaration on Climate and Health’.
It is funded to the tune of 1 BILLION dollars from donors such as the Rockefeller Foundation, and supposedly aims to:
better leverage synergies at the intersection of climate change and health to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of finance flows.”
…which might be the worst sentence anyone has ever written.
I’ve written about the agenda behind linking climate change to public health enough for one lifetime. You can read a deeper analysis of the topic here, here and here…and here and here and here.
All this is going to culminate in what they call the “Global Stocktake”. Essentially this is a mid-term report for the Paris Agreements, which can be “leveraged to accelerate ambition in their next round of climate action plans due in 2025”.
Whatever “leveraged to accelerate ambition” turns out to mean, you can be sure all of the attending governments will happily comply.
That includes every government in NATO, the European Union and BRICS by the way.
That includes the USA and China. That includes Russia and Ukraine.
That includes Israel…and Palestine.
Sure there’s a frisson of animosity being reported, with some delegations storming out of meetings with the Israelis, but basically, even victim and perpetrators of genocide can apparently sink their irreconcilable differences to agree to pretend that climate change is a real problem.
It’s basically covid all over again.
We know, just like Covid, the official narrative of climate change is a lie.
We know, just like Covid, climate change is being used as an excuse to usher in massive social control and global governance.
And we know, just like Covid, almost every world government on both sides of every divide is backing it.
Even if they don’t always agree, even if they are happy to kill each other’s citizens in large numbers, they are all on board the same globalist gravy train, all going in the same direction to the same destination, and it has never been more obvious.
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[Markets]
AbbVie to buy Cerevel Therapeutics in $8.7 billion all-cash deal
AbbVie to buy Cerevel Therapeutics in $8.7 billion all-cash deal
Published:12/6/2023 4:22:06 PM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Futures: S&P 500 Fades; AMD AI Chip Takes On Nvidia In $400 Billion-Plus Market
The major indexes reversed from morning highs. AMD unveiled an AI chip, saying the overall market could top $400 billion in a few years.
Published:12/6/2023 4:02:39 PM
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[Markets]
Biden Raises Possibility Of "American Troops Fighting Russian Troops"
Biden Raises Possibility Of "American Troops Fighting Russian Troops"
President Joe Biden has raised the possibility of "American troops fighting Russian troops" in a speech urging Congress to put aside "petty, partisan, angry politics" which is holding up his multibillion-dollar aid package for Ukraine. He said that he's willing to make "significant compromises" with Republicans but that it's they who've been unwilling to back down from their "extreme" demands.
"This cannot wait," Biden stressed in the televised remarks from the White House. “Congress needs to pass supplemental funding for Ukraine before they break for the holiday recess. Simple as that. Frankly, I think it’s stunning that we’ve gotten to this point in the first place. Republicans in Congress are willing to give Putin the greatest gift he can hope for and abandon our global leadership."
"I’m willing to make significant compromises on the border. We need to fix the broken border system. It is broken. And thus far I’ve gotten no response," Biden pleaded. He made the speech after speaking with G7 leaders, who are reportedly alarmed that US funding to Ukraine is set to run dry in a mere three weeks.
"If we walk away, how many of our European friends are going to continue to fund and at what rates are they going to continue to fund?" he posed.
And that's when the fear-mongering really kicked into overdrive. He went so far as to say that if Ukraine's defense isn't funded, this will lead to the country being steamrolled by the Russian military machine, and an emboldened Putin will then seek to gobble up more territory. Here's what the US president said, as reported in The New York Times:
The president even raised the prospect that an emboldened Mr. Putin would pose a threat to NATO allies, requiring the United States to come to their assistance with troops on the group. “If Putin takes Ukraine, he won’t stop there,” Mr. Biden said. “It’s important to see the long run here. He’s going to keep going. He’s made their pretty clear.”
“If he keeps going and then he attacks a NATO ally” to which the United States is bound by treaty to help, “then we’ll have something that we don’t seek and that we don’t have today — American troops fighting Russian troops,” Mr. Biden said.
“Make no mistake,” he added. “Today’s vote is going to be long remembered and history’s going to judge harshly those who turn their back on freedom’s cause. We can’t let Putin win. I’ll say it again, we can’t let Putin win.”
Of course, this shaky "logic" is the opposite of reality. It is the nearly two years of 'blank check' spending which has only served to ever-deepen American military involvement in the war, and this is what has gotten Washington into yet another foreign quagmire.
The soon to emerge narrative will also inevitably be that these hold-out Republicans "lost" the Ukraine war, as Biden's Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen has already been saying. The MSM will also help the administration float this as a key 2024 election talking point... wait for it to be on an endless CNN/NPR loop headed into next November.
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[Markets]
Supreme Court appears likely to ease process for workplace discrimination claims
Supreme Court justices seems to agree with a St. Louis, Mo., police sergeant that a separate determination of harm is not required for discrimination claims.
Published:12/6/2023 3:31:33 PM
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[Markets]
U.S. stocks finish lower as S&P 500, Dow suffer third straight losses
U.S. stocks finish lower as S&P 500, Dow suffer third straight losses
Published:12/6/2023 3:25:17 PM
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[Markets]
Stock market news today: Stocks slide, oil hits 5-month lows
The latest labor market data revealed a slowing jobs market furthering investor hopes for a soft landing.
Published:12/6/2023 3:12:59 PM
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[Markets]
Stock market news today: Stocks slide as jobs market shows more signs of softening
The latest labor market data revealed a slowing jobs market furthering investor hopes for a soft landing.
Published:12/6/2023 3:06:33 PM
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[Markets]
Biden administration to cancel nearly $5 billion in student debt for 80,000
Biden administration to cancel nearly $5 billion in student debt for 80,000
Published:12/6/2023 2:47:19 PM
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[Markets]
Beth Pinsker: Is giving stock to kids a good idea? There might be a better way to teach them about money.
You might think you’re sharing lessons about the value of investing, but you need to focus on basics instead.
Published:12/6/2023 2:41:17 PM
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[Markets]
VP Biden Linking Ukraine Loan To Prosecutor's Firing Surprised State Department Officials, Emails Show
VP Biden Linking Ukraine Loan To Prosecutor's Firing Surprised State Department Officials, Emails Show
Authored by Mark Tapscott via The Epoch Times,
Key White House and National Security Council and State Department officials were caught by surprise when they learned in January 2016 that then-Vice President Joe Biden had abruptly changed U.S. policy to require the firing of Ukrainian Special Prosecutor Viktor Shokin as a condition for receiving $1 billion in U.S.-backed International Monetary Fund (IMF) loans, according to House Judiciary Committee Chairman Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) citing emails reviewed by The Epoch Times.
"There are State Department emails where they are, like, 'Oh!' surprised. There were people in the State Department saying, 'Oh, Biden says they aren't getting the money unless Shokin is fired,' and they are surprised, saying, 'Why did you do that, we didn't talk about this; we didn't plan that.' So it was a total change from the consensus where the State Department was," Mr. Jordan told reporters during a Monday question-and-answer session focused on the status of the House impeachment investigation of President Biden.
That probe is technically only an "inquiry," but it is expected to be upgraded to an official House investigation with a vote next week in the lower chamber. Mr. Jordan told reporters Monday that he is confident the Republican majority will prevail in that vote despite having only a two-vote advantage over Democrats.
Whether the vice president was pushing for Mr. Shokin's ouster to aid his son Hunter Biden's business dealings is a focus of the impeachment inquiry. Hunter Biden sat on the board of Ukrainian energy firm Burisma, which was being investigated by Mr. Shokin.
Investigators with Mr. Jordan's panel and the House Committee on Oversight and Accountability, chaired by Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.), and the House Ways and Means Committee, chaired by Rep. Jason Smith (R-Mo.), are focused on President Biden's alleged participation in and benefitting from his family's receipt of millions of dollars of income throughout a period of several decades from individuals, as well as corporate and state entities, in Ukraine, China, Russia, Kazakhstan, and Romania during and after the senior Biden's years as Vice-President under President Barack Obama.
Surprise From Officials
In one of the State Department emails to which Mr. Jordan referred, Eric Ciaramella, a White House National Security Council (NSC) deputy national intelligence officer for Russia and Eurasia, expressed shock to three colleagues on Jan. 21, 2016, saying, "Yikes. I don't recall this coming up in our meeting with them on Tuesday."
Mr. Ciaramella, who did not respond to The Epoch Times' request for comment, was reacting to an email sent earlier in the day from Elisabeth Zentos, an NSC colleague that was also addressed to Geoffrey Pyatt, U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine from 2013 to 2016, and Anna Makanju, who was then a Special Adviser to Mr. Biden for Europe and Eurasia. Mr. Ciaramella is now a Senior Fellow with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Mr. Pyatt, who is presently the State Department's Assistant Secretary for Energy Resources, could not be reached for comment, according to a State Department spokesman, because he is in Dubai attending the COP28 Climate Change International Conference. Ms. Makanju, who is now Vice President for Global Affairs at San Francisco-based OpenAI, did not respond to The Epoch Times request for comment.
Mr. Pyatt responded to the Zentos email, saying, "Buckle in," and adding, "We also need to readdress all the LG [loan guarantee] anti-corruption conditions ... and at this stage, there's only one that really matters." Ms. Makanju did not respond in the email thread reviewed by The Epoch Times.
Mr. Jordan said State Department officials were surprised to learn of Mr. Biden's ultimatum to Mr. Poroshenko because it was previously settled U.S. policy to pressure Ukraine to root out official corruption that had plagued the country since it declared its independence from the former Soviet Union in 1991.
But until Mr. Biden did so, the U.S. had not made Ukraine's receipt of the IMF loan guarantees conditional upon Mr. Shokin's removal. Briefing materials reviewed by the vice president during his December 2015 flight to Ukraine included planning for him to sign the U.S. agreement to back the IMF loans, with no reference to firing Mr. Shokin.
The judiciary chairman contends Mr. Biden's abrupt reversal followed from the fact his son, Hunter Biden, was a member of the board of directors of the Ukrainian energy company Burisma, which was being actively investigated by Mr. Shokin regarding allegations of corruption.
Rep. Jim Jordan (R-Ohio) speaks to the press after coming out of the Hunter Biden special counsel David Weiss’s closed-door testimony to the House Judiciary Committee in Washington on Nov. 7, 2023. (Madalina Vasiliu/The Epoch Times)
'Called An Audible'
Mr. Jordan noted that during a Dec. 4, 2015, meeting in Dubai between Burisma executives Mykola Zlochevsky and Vadym Pozharsky and Hunter Biden and Devon Archer, one of his business partners, the Ukrainians pleaded with the Americans to do something to relieve the "government pressure" they were receiving from the Shokin investigation of corruptions allegations against Mr. Zlochevsky.
Mr. Archer told the oversight committee during a closed-door transcribed interview that in response to those pleas, Hunter Biden "called DC," referring to his father, the vice president. Three days later, the vice president, according to the Washington Post, "called an audible"—changed his plans—to reverse U.S. policy and demand Mr. Shokin's firing.
In a summary timeline of the events, the oversight committee observed that "Devon Archer joined the Burisma board of directors in the spring of 2014 and was joined by Hunter Biden shortly thereafter. Hunter Biden joined the company as counsel, but after a meeting with Burisma owner Mykola Zlochevsky in Lake Como, Italy, was elevated to the board of directors in the spring of 2014.
"Both Biden and Archer were each paid $1 million per year for their positions on the board of directors. In December 2015, after a Burisma board of directors meeting, Zlochevsky and Hunter Biden 'called DC' in the wake of mounting pressures the company was facing. Zlochevsky was later charged with bribing Ukrainian officials with $6 million in an attempt to delay or drop the investigation into his company."
The oversight panel has to date documented $6.5 million in income to the Biden family and their associates from their Ukrainian activities.
The Epoch Times has reached out to the State Department and National Security Council for comment.
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Flat As Elon Musk Offers $1 Billion In AI Race
Dow Jones rises on weak ADP jobs data for November. Disney rose amid news that activist investor Ancora supports Nelson Peltz's bid for a board seat.
Published:12/6/2023 2:22:55 PM
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[Markets]
Biden Admits 'Only In Election To Beat Trump' As Former President Promises Not To Be A Dictator "Except On Day One"
Biden Admits 'Only In Election To Beat Trump' As Former President Promises Not To Be A Dictator "Except On Day One"
Amid an avalanche of not-at-all-coordinated hit-pieces all focused on the word "Dictator", former President Trump appeared to play right into the hands of the narrative-writers with his comments overnight - albeit completely removed from context (just like "good people on both sides"... except the nazis!)
Dark scenarios about what could happen if Trump wins in 2024 have appeared in the space of a few days in major US media outlets that include The Washington Post, The New York Times and the Atlantic.
Grim predictions also came from no lesser Trump-hater than Liz Cheney, who said that the country is "sleepwalking into dictatorship" and that she is weighing a third-party presidential run of her own to try to stop him.
Are you afraid yet?
Trump's campaign responded by pointing out that "this is nothing more than another version of the media’s failed and false Russia collusion hoax," referring to The Atlantic's project to devote their January/February issue to analyzing what a second Trump term would mean for immigration, civil rights, the Justice Department, climate and more.
And then, during an interview with Sean Hannity Tuesday, Donald Trump himself told the crowd that if he wins another term as President he will not use his powers for retribution against political enemies, but added the caveat “except for day one”.
As Modenerny.news' Steve Watson details, Hannity asked Trump “To be clear, do you in any way have any plans whatsoever if reelected president to abuse power, to break the law to use the government to go after people?”
“You mean like they’re using right now?” Trump responded.
Hannity elaborated “the media has been focused on this and attacking you under no circumstances,” adding “You are promising America tonight you would never abuse power as retribution against anybody?”
“Except for day one,” Trump replied, adding “I want to close the border and I want to drill, drill, drill.”
“That is not retribution,” Hannity interjected before Trump jumped back in stating ” I’m going to be — I love this guy. You are not going to be a dictator, are you? I said no, no other than day one. We’re closing the border and we’re drilling, drilling, drilling. Other than that, I’m not a dictator.”
Of course, the left's media operatives were ready to rewrite those words to match their narrative as the Biden/Harris campaign immediately send out a press release stating that Trump has promised to be a dictator on day one:
* * *
Which followed comments by President Biden, echoing his views from 2016, saying at a Boston campaign event that he wasn't sure if he'd be running for a second term if Donald Trump weren't in the race.
"If Trump wasn't running, I'm not sure I'd be running," Biden told donors at a fundraiser.
"But we cannot let him win," Biden added.
During his speech, he also highlighted President Trump's continued calls to repeal the Affordable Care Act, also known as Obamacare.
President Biden's visit to Boston was part of a weeklong fundraising tour in multiple states aimed at bolstering his campaign finances before the year's end.
In Boston, the president centered his message on the high stakes of the upcoming election, pointing out that President Trump has been transparent about his intentions if he were to win again. -Epoch Times
"Trump's not even hiding the ball anymore. He's telling us what he's going to do. He's making no bones about it," he said, citing Trump's previous statements about seeking "retribution" and his promise to root out the "vermin" in the country.
"He didn't even show up at my inauguration. I can't say I was disappointed, but he didn't even show up," Biden said, drawing laughter from the crowd.
With a year to go, this is just getting started!
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[Markets]
US STOCKS-S&P 500 flat as investors weigh fresh employment data
U.S. stocks were mixed on Wednesday as signs of a cooling jobs market reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve could start cutting interest rates early next year, while weakness in energy shares limited gains. The latest employment data reinforced expectations the Fed's rate-hike campaign is cooling the economy.
Published:12/6/2023 1:51:34 PM
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[Markets]
Walmart seems to have changed its view on weight-loss drugs
Walmart seems to have changed its view on weight-loss drugs
Published:12/6/2023 1:33:18 PM
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[Markets]
Market Snapshot: Dow trims early gain as investors await more labor-market data
U.S. stocks pared or erased earlier gains on Wednesday as investors awaited further data this week on the state of the labor market after weaker-than-expected November private-sector job figures.
Published:12/6/2023 1:09:16 PM
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[Markets]
Dow Jones Flounders As Musk Ups AI Race With $1 Billion Offering
Dow Jones rises on weak ADP jobs data for November. Disney rose amid news that activist investor Ancora supported Nelson Peltz's bid for a board seat.
Published:12/6/2023 1:09:16 PM
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