Markets

Authored by Kit Knightly via Off-Guardian.org,

Earlier this month the White House published its new “Pandemic Preparedness” targets.

They are far from alone in covering this. Back in March, Sky News was asking: “Next pandemic is around the corner,’ expert warns – but would lockdown ever happen again?”

On April 3rd, the Financial Times asked something similar: “The next pandemic is coming. Will we be ready?”

Less than an hour ago, the Daily Mail invited us inside “the world’s deadliest cave that could cause the next pandemic”.

Just two days ago a professional panic spreader wrote for CNN:

The next pandemic threat demands action now!!!

OK, I added the exclamation points, but they are very much implied in the original text.

So, while Iran and Israel rattle their sabres on the front pages, I thought we should take a look at the quieter back pages to see what we can learn, and help us predict how “the next pandemic” will unfold.

WHAT IS “THE NEXT PANDEMIC”?

I mean…I feel like that’s fairly self-explanatory.

Seriously though, it’s the one they’ve been predicting from pretty much the moment Covid started. First it was going to be monkey pox – sorry MPox – but that fizzled.

Of course by “pandemic”, we really mean “psy-op”, because nothing about the next pandemic will be any more real than the last pandemic. Hell, given the leaps forward in AI technology, it could be considerably less real next time.

We don’t know any of the details yet, but there’s enough vague coverage to tease out some guesstimates.

WHAT DISEASE WILL THEY USE?

Probably the most important question. We already mentioned monkey pox, but that doesn’t look likely anymore.

Right now they are mostly talking about “disease X” – a term which caused a little panic in certain sections when it first appeared on the scene – but that isn’t some top secret gain of function super disease, it’s literally a place holder name.

And it’s a placeholder name which does its job, for the time being.

After all, they don’t really need an actual name yet, any more than they need an actual disease, they just need the idea of a disease to hold over people’s heads while they construct the legislative rules of their health-based tyranny.

Indeed, the vagueness “Disease X” provides is helpful, as it keeps the legislation vague too.

That said, they will likely want and/or need to produce an actual disease at some point.

When that time comes around, it will almost certainly be another respiratory disease, because they are easy to “fake” using pre-existing endemic diseases and their uniform symptoms.

The prime candidate is bird flu, which has been slow-boiling in the news for two years now and has recently got a big uptick in coverage due to it allegedly passing to people from cows.

The UN reports “pandemic experts” are “concerned over avian influenza spread to humans”. Just yesterday, Jeremy Farrar of the World Health Organization (WHO) warned that “[the] threat Of Bird Flu spreading to Humans is a great concern”

Prompting gleefully sensationalist headlines like this from the Daily Star:

New pandemic ‘expected’ as human-to-human bird flu of ‘great concern’ to WHO

Bird flu is a convenient pick because it enables them to push their health tyranny and their food transition at the same time. They can claim that dairy, beef, chicken and eggs have become “dangerous” as an excuse to ration them or at least force scarcity while they drive the prices up.

They will then push the idea that veganism and/or lab grown meat “prevents pandemics”. Something they’ve been claiming since at least 2021.

The Daily Mail reported just a few hours ago:

H5N1 strain of bird flu is found in MILK for first time in ‘very high concentrations,’ World Health Organization warns

The downside to bird flu is that it’s hard to work the climate change angle into the narrative, so maybe they’ll go with something else.

WHEN WILL IT HAPPEN?

Probably not until the winter, I would guess January 2025 at the earliest, for two reasons:

1. They need it to be flu season so they can co-opt normal seasonal deaths into their “pandemic” narrative.
2. I think they’ll want to wait until after the “big election year” is over so there are fresh governments in place.

That second point is not just a hunch, but based on the article from Sky I mentioned above. It asks “would lockdown ever happen again?”, and an “expert” answers [emphasis added]:

…if another lockdown was needed, the current Tory government would either have to minimise scandals over their own rule-breaking – or change hands completely to keep the public on board. If we had a new government, people would be far more likely to have faith in them because they would be less likely to say, ‘it’s the same bunch as before – why should we do it again?’

Which I think is correct.

That would also explain the raft of sudden political resignations – including Covid stars Angela Merkel and Jacinda Ardern – which swept the world in Covid’s wake. They were aware then, and are still aware now, their players were spent and they needed a fresh roster before coming back for the second leg.

So, elections first – with all the nonsense that entails – then maybe the “next pandemic”.

HOW WILL IT BE DIFFERENT FROM “COVID”?

Any future pandemic psy-op will be unlikely to follow the covid pattern beat-for-beat, for one thing the Covid narrative spent itself before achieving everything it was meant to achieve.

You can bet the farm that, in the four years since, there have been working groups and researchers poring over the pandemic data to figure out what went wrong and how they can fix it next time.

There seem to be three recurring themes.

1. Vaccines not lockdowns There will be a focus on securing vaccines rather than lockdowns. Indeed, part of the whole “aw shucks lockdowns were damaging who’d have thunk it” rigmarole is about setting up the dynamic that “next time” we need to do anything we can to avoid lockdowns.

Lockdowns will become a threat rather than a fact.

“We HAVE to mandate vaccines, because the economy can’t afford another lockdown.”

“Take the vaccine, you don’t want to have another lockdown do you?”

So there will be more testing, more masks and more vaccine mandates…and/or quarantine camps for the unvaccinated. And if they DO have lockdowns, they will be entirely blamed on the “anti-vaxxers”, of course.

2. Speed speed speed The main failing of the Covid narrative was that it ran out of steam. By the time the vaccines rolled out in early 2021 the pandemic fatigue was already setting in. And by the time the third boosters and fourth waves were in the headlines nobody really cared.

The propaganda blitzkrieg of early 2020 was arguably the greatest and most wide-reaching misinformation campaign of all time – and it was almost overwhelmingly effective. But it slowed, stalled, stopped and staled.

Next time, they know now, they need to be faster. Bill Gates said as much at the 2022 Munich Security Conference. They need to get the disease out the deaths up and vaccines in before people even realise what happened.

Hence the “100 day vaccines” plan. As the ever-reliably-hysterical Devi Shridar writes for the Guardian:

most governments are working towards the 100-day challenge: that is, how to contain a virus spreading while a scientific response, such as a vaccine, diagnostic or treatment, can be approved, manufactured and delivered to the public.

The “100 Day Mission” is the brainchild of CEPI, the Gates and WHO-backed NGO. Its main aim is to make it possible to produce new vaccines for previously unknown pathogens in 100 days.

In the US, the target is 130 days from pathogen discovery to nation-wide vaccine coverage.

It should go without saying that real, reliable, “safe and effective” vaccines cannot be produced in 100 days. Whatever they make, sell and force you to inject in that time…it won’t be a vaccine

3. Free Speech is Dangerous. The slow development of the narrative post-2020 may have hindered the health tyranny agenda, but it was the independent media that really hurt it. The impromptu network of dissident experts, independent researchers and social media movements spread “misinformation” faster than the powers-that-be could fact-check it.

We have seen perpetual messaging about the dangers of “misinformaion and disinformation” since then, including prominently at the most recent DAVOS summit earlier this year, where it was labelled one of the “three greatest dangers” facing the planet.

Last week, a UK Parliamentary Committee published “recommendations” headlined:

Government should learn lessons from pandemic to improve communications and counter misinformation

Only a few days ago, Gordon Brown was quoted in the news “warning” that:

“fake news’ risks preparations for next pandemic”

Which heavily implies they will move to counter this “fake news” before the “next pandemic” begins.

WILDCARD PREDICTION: The multipolar angle. Whatever form the “next pandemic” takes, they will likely avoid the monolithic messaging of 2020, where total global conformity to “the message” was one of the real telltale signs of deception. Next time prepare for countries like India, China and Russia to forge their own pandemic strategy – focusing on some new treatment or technology that the West refuses to endorse.

There are no sources to back this one, yet. It’s just a gut feeling.

*

So what am I officially predicting for the “next pandemic”?

1. It will won’t be launched until after the major elections this year, because they want new politic faces untarnished by Covid
2. It will likely be bird flu or some other respiratory disease, launched in the winter to hijack the real flu season again
3. The chosen disease will fit into one or more pre-existing agenda – either impacting food or originating from some forced “climate change” connection or both
4. They will move faster, producing “vaccines” in 100 days to stop people getting wise to the deception as they did with Covid
5. They will try and avoid lockdowns, but use them as a threat to enforce vaccine mandates more rigorously
6. They will clamp down harder on “mis- and dis-information” before launching the new narrative.
7. The next pandemic will have a multipolarity angle to establish a fake binary

That’s how I see it. Feel free to bookmark this post for future reference.

Even if I’ve guessed the details wrong here, there’s no question they are planning to roll out another pandemic at some point in near future. A covid sequel that learns from past mistakes.

While, in some ways, it will likely be worse than Covid was – the good news is that this time we can be ready for it.

Authored by Katabella Roberts via The Epoch Times,

A San Diego County official has branded the city the “new epicenter” for illegal immigration and claimed that Border Patrol has become “the ‘Uber’ for migrants” entering the county.

“San Diego is the new epicenter for migrants and illegal immigration,” San Diego District 5 Supervisor Jim Desmond posted on the social media platform X on April 25.

“The surge in illegal crossings has propelled San Diego to the unfortunate position of leading all nine southern border sectors in April, a trend unseen since the 1990s.”

On Wednesday alone, Border Patrol apprehended 2,000 illegal immigrants within the San Diego sector, according to Mr. Desmond. Among them were 206 Chinese nationals, he said.

Since Oct. 1st, there have been nearly 215,000 apprehensions representing individuals from 75 different countries in the San Diego sector, Mr. Desmond wrote in the post.

“Moreover, the closure of the processing center has led to over 30,000 migrant drop-offs in the past two months alone, with projections of more than 1,000 drop-offs expected today,” he continued.

“This doesn’t account for the frequent occurrences of boats washing ashore, averaging three to four incidents weekly. ”

Mr. Desmond appeared to be referencing the $6 million Migrant Welcome Center that shut down in San Diego in February due to a lack of funding.

The District 5 supervisor went on to state that human smugglers have identified California—and in particular the San Diego border sector—as “the path of least resistance” for illegal immigrants.

“Border Patrol has inadvertently become the ‘Uber’ for migrants entering San Diego County, and the County is the travel agent,” he concluded.

Illegal immigrants ‘Just Walking Across the Border’

Speaking to Newsnation later on April 25, Mr. Desmond claimed that people are “just walking across the border” and Border Patrol agents “are not empowered to stop them.”

“All they’re doing is processing them once they ... walk across the border,” he told the publication.

The Epoch Times has reached out to San Diego Border Patrol for further comment.

Mr. Desmond’s comments come after he and other San Diego County leaders called on the state and federal governments to bolster security at the border and remove sanctuary city policies amid the ongoing immigration crisis.

Speaking at a press conference alongside several mayors on April 15 near Carlsbad State Beach, Mr. Desmond said more than 125,000 illegal immigrants have entered since September, of which more than 25,000 had been released onto the streets in the past two months.

The county official stressed those figures did not include known “gotaways,” those known to have entered the country illegally while evading Border Patrol.

He further blamed California’s sanctuary city policies for prohibiting law enforcement agencies from working with Immigration Customs and Enforcement to hand over illegal immigrants, even if they are identified as suspects in crimes other than entering the United States illegally.

California Governor Gavin Newsom, on April 17, 2024. (Travis Gillmore/The Epoch Times)

Newsom Praises Biden’s Border Efforts

Mr. Desmond criticized the state for providing “free health care to illegal immigrants,” along with “free legal defense to those here illegally seeking asylum ... no matter what crime they commit.”

He and other Republican county officials, including Carlsbad Mayor Keith Blackburn, Vista Mayor John Franklin, and San Marcos Mayor Rebecca Jones, called upon the state of California and the federal government to do more to address the influx of illegal immigrants while calling for harsher penalties on human smugglers.

“We need to make major changes for the safety of our people, the safety of all of San Diego County,” Mr. Desmond said. “We need the state and federal officials to bring more resources, whether it’s more Coast Guard or National Guard ... We’ve got to come together and allow law enforcement to communicate with ICE. We need to be able to deport criminals out of the country.”

In contrast, California Gov. Gavin Newsom has defended the state’s response to the ongoing immigration crisis while praising the Biden administration for providing millions in federal grants to address the issue.

“Let’s be clear: President Biden is doing all he can to fund border security and humanitarian efforts while Republicans in Congress are choosing border chaos for political gain,” he said in an April 12 statement.

The Democrat went on to accuse congressional Republicans of trying to “undermine opportunities to advance border security” and modernize the immigration system for political gain.

“The Newsom Administration is working in partnership with the Biden-Harris Administration and California Congressional leaders, along with state and local officials, to advocate for federal funding for communities as they support the federal government with a safe and orderly process, further enhancing border security,” the governor said.

Via SchiffGold.com,

The solution to a problem shouldn’t make the problem worse.

But apparently, California’s policy makers missed that memo.

On April 1st, the state instituted a $20 minimum wage for fast food workers, the highest in the US. With California’s absurdly high cost of living, the policy appeared to make life more manageable for low-income residents. Unfortunately, as the adage goes, “If it sounds too good to be true, it probably is.” California’s new minimum wage is poised to hurt the same fast-food workers it aims to help.

The Economic Problem of a Minimum Wage

The counterproductivity of a minimum wage is demonstrated by a simple analysis of the labor market. Companies “purchase” labor from workers through a wage. The more value a worker adds to a company, the more they will be paid. If employers are allowed to set wages freely, and the labor market is competitive, workers can expect to be paid close to their value added to the company.

A minimum wage hijacks this process. If a worker is worth $15 an hour to an employer, but a $20 minimum wage is introduced, the company will no longer hire the worker, and both parties are harmed. A $20 wage floor means that workers must at least add that much value to the company. For many laborers, this means saying goodbye to their industry and hello to unemployment.

The Effects of California’s Minimum Wage

The ripple effects of California’s $20 minimum wage have proved these dismal predictions all too true. Several chains, including Pizza Hut and Starbucks, have laid off workers in response to the wage increase. Michaela Mendelsohn, the CEO of El Pollo Loco, claimed the company would have to reduce employee hours due to increased labor costs. McDonald’s employees are likewise seeing their hours substantially reduced. In the tight margins of the fast-food industry, where even a small increase in the price of labor can destabilize a production chain, the effects of the wage hike have been exacerbated.

Fast-food workers are particularly susceptible to layoffs because of the rise of automation within the industry. Automation creates a simple alternative for companies struggling to meet the wage requirement. Many fast-food restaurants have already implemented mobile ordering stations, and if labor costs continue to rise, the incentive to further automate will increase. Restaurants around the world have already introduced machines to replace waiters, cashiers, and cooks.

A higher wage also increases the risk of hiring new, untested workers. In service industries, such as fast food, it can be difficult to distinguish the productivity of individual workers. It can take a while to find the weak link at the root of a location’s unproductivity, and this delay equals lost revenue. While an untested applicant may potentially boost productivity, a heightened minimum wage increases the risk of giving that worker a chance.

Proponents of the new minimum wage argue that food chains will absorb the wage increase by raising prices. Some companies, such as Chipotle and Jack in the Box, have already raised their California prices in response to the new policy. However, this is not a concrete solution. Any price increase will necessarily decrease consumer demand, which could harm profits further. A step too far and the workers’ already dire plight will be exacerbated.

If California’s economic and political conditions continue to worsen, many franchises might simply leave the state. While California has a massive potential market, if labor costs become prohibitively high, chains could simply focus their resources on more economically-friendly states. Leading the way are MOD Pizza and Starbucks, who respectively closed five and seven of their California locations in April.

The Minimum Wage: A Cure that Exacerbates the Sickness

The ethos of the minimum wage is to support the poor and lessen wealth inequality. Social class discrepancy is not a trivial issue, as a lack of generational wealth constrains the opportunities of millions of Americans. Children of parents without college degrees are more likely to not obtain a degree themselves, and less educated workers are on average less productive than their educated counterparts. However, the minimum wage increases inequality by cutting off anyone who falls below a mandated productivity threshold. This means removing many of the underprivileged from the workforce altogether, causing families already hampered by societal constraints to see their opportunities shrink even further. It’s like a hospital diverting its care from its sickest patients to pamper the healthy.

Interventionist policies usually sound good. Politicians love to swoon about how their measures will reduce inequality and to paint opponents as money-grubbers who don’t care about assisting the poor. The cold reality is that when the government institutes a sweeping economic reform, there will always be unintended consequences. In the case of the minimum wage, the “cure” exacerbates the sickness.

First, the feminists claimed that they "don't need no man" and promoted a culture of "strong independent women," the idea being that men were holding women back from their true potential.  The "patriarchy" conspiracy was an all prevailing issue for woke activists for years, and their answer was to attack and sabotage men and masculinity with a terroristic fervor.  Masculinity, they argued, is the root of all historic evils.

However, as feminists gained the backing of governments and massive corporate financiers the idea of women being "oppressed" in western countries seemed even less probable than it did before.  What rights under the law do men have that women don't have?  Ask a feminist this question and she'll have no idea how to answer.  Feminism and woke movements in general rely on the image of being the underdog; a heroic revolutionary effort by people who are fighting to gain a voice.  But woke activists aren't fighting "the man", they are "the man."  You can't be a revolutionary when you're the oppressor.

In response, men started giving feminists exactly what they said they wanted:  Equal treatment.  The old days of chivalry and the expectations for men to support women financially quickly faded, and suddenly feminists discovered that men were no longer spending their cash as freely as they used to.  Everything is half-and-half today, and feminists don't like that.

So, hypocritically, the same woke promoters that once pontificated about women being treated equally took to the internet to attack men who embraced the idea.  The "Sprinkle Sprinkle" narrative was born, with feminists demanding that men submit to feminism while also paying for everything a woman desires as if they are walking ATMs.  Those men that don't are accused of being "broke losers" who don't deserve companionship.

Yes, it's bewildering, but this is the nature of Cultural Marxism - The goal of activists is to break down the target population until they are slaves to collectivist whim.  No matter what you do, no matter how you accommodate them, it's never good enough because the true purpose is control.  In the case of feminism, being a man is the same as original sin and every man must pay the price for that sin for as long as they live.  Meaning if men want access to women they can't just treat them equally, they also have to pay.

This philosophy has led to a flurry of online trends, mainly on websites like TikTok, in which feminists give women relationship advice on how to view men as an easy income source while squeezing them for every available penny.  The term "foodie call" became ubiquitous as social media activists laughed about having various categories of men in their roster, some for sex and some for free food.  This is where the now infamous "Restaurant Refusal List" came from; a list of eateries that feminists say women should never go to on a first date because they are "cheap."

List of restaurants women refuse to go on a first date to is going viral ?? pic.twitter.com/4myU4nsL0O

— Daily Loud (@DailyLoud) October 24, 2023

And don't think for one second that these internet fads have no bearing on the real world, because they absolutely do.  The ignorance of older generations to the online social ecosystem is one of the reasons why the woke movement seemed to strike out of nowhere a decade ago.  Everyone thought it was fringe and funny until it suddenly began dominating every element of the web and pop-culture. 

The Sprinkle-Sprinkle trend blew up, with scores of women taking to TikTok to complain about how men don't fulfill their needs monetarily and proudly boasting about the privileges they're entitled to.  The double standard was now complete.  Women were all victims all the time.  Men were all victimizers all the time.  But women were also "powerful" and independent, yet they required men's finances to feel respected.  Meaning, under feminism men can truly never win, even if they give in.    

Thankfully, grassroots counter-movements are learning and adapting to the online environment that woke activists have been thriving in, often with hilarious results.  Instead of "Sprinkle Sprinkle", now it's "Drizzle Drizzle" - The "Soft Guy Era" movement parodies feminist talking points, taking those arguments and flipping them around to show how ridiculous these women sound.

Men demand equal treatment, and feminists better have their cash and credit cards handy or they get no access. Men are now "the prize."

Obviously these are all jokes and none of the men are serious, but not surprisingly a lot of feminists are furious anyway.  As the saying goes, the left can't meme and they're incapable of laughing at themselves.  

If you take, for example, common BLM arguments about white people and you flip the script by replacing the word "white" with the word "black", those same arguments come out sounding incredibly racist.  Activists don't like it when you use their methods against them.  The guys out there making Drizzle-Drizzle videos are using a similar debate technique, only with feminists.  

At bottom, feminism is a narcissistic and sociopathic ideology that is destroying western relationships and the nuclear family.  It is at the core of the current downfall of civilization and should not be taken lightly.  That said, sometimes ridicule is the most effective weapon for stopping social saboteurs.  Drizzle Drizzle, kings.   

Authored by Fred Roeder via RealClearMarkets,

On a Friday night in March 2011, I stayed at an upscale W Hotel on Lexington Avenue in New York City for $124. That hotel later became The Maxwell, but sadly it didn’t survive the pandemic and is now permanently closed. Today the average hotel stay in that same neighborhood costs between $400 and $500 on a Friday night. The surge in hotel prices, particularly for upmarket accommodations, has caught the attention of travelers and investors worldwide. What led to this spike in hotel rates post-pandemic?

Several factors have been at play for the hospitality industry since COVID entered the rearview, resulting in higher prices for travelers.

Supply and Competition

Competition within hospitality plays a crucial role in determining hotel prices. While it might appear that there's no shortage of lodging options for travelers, the regulatory crackdown on platforms like Airbnb in big cities has redirected travelers back into the arms of traditional hotels, thereby increasing demand. 

As the Consumer Choice Center has pointed out, 80 percent of properties were already delisted from Airbnb by October 2023 thanks to New York City’s stringent new short-term rental policies. Because of the new restrictions on temporary rentals, which state that only two paying guests at most can stay for up to 30 days under certain conditions (unobstructed access to the whole residence, short-term registration, owner present on site), many families have no choice but to look for a hotel room during their NYC stay. 

Not to mention the massive buying up of hotel room blocks by the city in order to house newly arrived migrant populations. This warps the market for hotel rooms in profound ways. NYC has at least 140 active contracts with city hotels to fill all their vacant rooms, normally valued around $110 per night, but marked up by 73 percent to $190 for a room. Vacancies mean lower prices, but if surrounding inns are full, hotel prices rise for consumers. 

This arrangement may not be what hoteliers had in mind for their business, but it has proven highly lucrative for the properties cooperating with the city in these contracts. 

Closures of smaller hotels along with industry consolidation reduce the number of options for consumers, which empowers larger hotel chains to raise prices. Moreover, high interest rates on financing discourage the construction of new hotels, leading to an even more constrained supply of rooms. All the while, prices creep even higher. 

Consolidated hotel groups have found innovative ways to manage yields and hence increase revenue. This would explain higher average daily rates despite similar or even lower occupancy rates for NYC hotels pre-pandemic.

Traveler’s Tastes Change 

Higher prices are also related to consumer preferences, which have evolved significantly in recent years. The pandemic prompted a shift towards safer and more luxurious options, with travelers prioritizing enhanced safety measures and amenities. This shift, coupled with pent-up demand from periods of lockdown, has resulted in a willingness among travelers to pay a premium for upmarket hotels. 

Consumers also tend to book closer to their travel dates and are proving reluctant to commit far in advance. A few years of uncertainty around travel has created a more cautious average traveler. On top of that, the normalization of remote work has blurred the lines between business and leisure travel, leading to longer average stays. 

People are taking personal vacations and then staying there longer while they transition back into work mode.

Supply Chains and Labor

Amidst all these trends, operational costs rise with minimum wage hikes, labor shortages, crunched supply chains overseas, and ever-increasing taxes in America’s largest cities. The labor shortfall is not insignificant and leaves hotels struggling to meet the high demand for rooms. The costs are likely being passed on to consumers in the form of higher prices. 

It’s also very possible that hotels are eager to recoup losses incurred during the pandemic period, driving them to maximize revenue through price adjustments as demand rebounds in major travel markets. 

It’s a perfect storm of industry trends, regulatory pressures on competitors, and consumer behavior driving up the average price of a hotel stay in NYC and other large cities. Is there anything that can be done? 

Ideally, as prices rise, consumers will see a new wave of entrepreneurial competition offering market solutions and testing out new models for lodging travelers. For the sake of all our wallets, let’s hope that happens sooner rather than later.

Who could have seen that coming? (here, here, here, and most detailed here)

March will be lit:

1. Reverse repo ends
2. BTFP expires
3. Fed cuts (allegedly)
4. QT ends (allegedly)

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) January 8, 2024

Admittedly, we were a couple of weeks off, but trouble has been brewing in the banking sector and tonight - after the close - we get the first bank failure of the year.

The FDIC just seized the troubled Philadelphia bank, Republic First Bancorp and and struck an agreement for the lender’s deposits and the majority of its assets to be bought by Fulton Bank.

Republic Bank had about $6 billion of assets and $4 billion of deposits at the end of January, according to the FDIC (considerably smaller than the $100-200BN assets with SVB and Signature).

The FDIC estimated the failure will cost the deposit insurance fund $667 million.

As The Wall Street Journal reports, Republic First had for months struggled to stay afloat.

Around half of its deposits were uninsured at the end of 2023, according to FDIC data. 

Its total equity, or assets minus liabilities, was $96 million at the end of 2023, according to FDIC filings.

That excluded $262 million of unrealized losses on bonds that it labeled “held to maturity,” which means the losses hadn’t counted on its balance sheet.

Its stock, which was delisted from Nasdaq in August, had been near zero.

Republic Bank’s 32 branches across New Jersey, Pennsylvania and New York will reopen as branches of Fulton Bank on Saturday, according to a statement from the FDIC.

Depositors of Republic Bank will become depositors of Williamsport, Pennsylvania-based Fulton Bank, the regulator said.

You should not be surprised given that rates are higher now than they were at the start of the SVB crisis - which means, unless banks have hedged hard or dumped their bonds at a loss, they are even more underwater...

U.S. Banks finished the year with almost $400 billion of unrealized losses on held-to-maturity assets. The assumption is this wouldn't be a problem because the Fed would cut A LOT this year but what if that doesn't happen? pic.twitter.com/fsfMCisEd3

— Barchart (@Barchart) April 25, 2024

Add to this the fact that last week - seasonally-adjusted for tax-season - US banks saw the largest deposit outflows since 9/11 (yes, that 9/11)...

...and, as we showed earlier, absent the $126BN outstanding in The Fed's BTFP bailout fund (which is now terminated and slowly running down as the term loans mature)...

...the banking crisis is back and now the question is "who's next?"

Via The Cradle

The government of US President Joe Biden has decided against imposing sanctions on Israeli army units responsible for human rights violations against Palestinians, despite initial plans to do so. 

ABC News reported on Friday that a government assessment determined that three battalions in the Israeli army committed “gross human rights violations” against Palestinians in the occupied West Bank “but will remain eligible for US military aid regardless because of steps Israel says it’s taking to address the problem.” 

The assessment, which has not been made public, was outlined in a letter written by US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken to House Speaker Mike Johnson, which the news network obtained. 

The rights violations committed by Israeli forces “will not delay the delivery of any US assistance and Israel will be able to receive the full amount appropriated by Congress.” Billions in US aid to Israel was approved by Biden just two days ago after passing in the Senate on Tuesday.

The violations in question were committed prior to October 7 and took place in the occupied West Bank. They include the execution of Palestinians by Israeli border police, as well as torture and rape during interrogation. 

None are related to Israel’s ongoing war in Gaza, which has killed tens of thousands of Palestinians, the majority of whom were women and children. 

Yet the decision is expected to frustrate many critics of the Biden administration who believe Washington has not done enough to hold Israel accountable for war crimes. Under the US Leahy Law, Washington should withhold military aid to states committing severe human rights abuses. Yet the law allows exceptions if measures are taken to punish those responsible. 

An informed source told ABC that Israel and the US have a “special agreement” that Washington must consult with Tel Aviv over any decision relating to foreign assistance. The source added that these consultations are ongoing. 

Blinken’s letter states that four of the Israeli army units have undergone “remediation” steps, meaning that those within the units that are responsible for the crimes have been internally held accountable. 

Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said on April 21: “If anyone thinks they can impose sanctions on a unit of the IDF, I will fight it with all my strength.”

According to Hebrew news site Ynet, Israeli pressure on the US helped shape the decision not to impose sanctions on the units. “The reasonable estimate is that we will be able to convince the US not to impose these sanctions,” an Israeli official told the outlet. 

In addition to Netanyahu, opposition leaders Benny Gantz and Yair Lapid both called on the US not to proceed with the decision. Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant reportedly promised Blinken that “steps” would be taken. 

How we got here: IMPUNITY. U.S. cancels sanctions against IDF units suspected of blatant war crimes. Because Israel pledged to do its own investigation. History show these "investigations" go nowhere except to find excuses; exonerate suspects.https://t.co/HfwJGcOwCj

— Jim Clancy (@ClancyReports) April 26, 2024

A special State Department panel proposed months ago to bar certain Israeli police and army units from receiving US funds over human rights abuses. A ProPublica report from last week indicates that Blinken disregarded the panel’s recommendations for action against the units. 

The Guardian reported in January, citing interviews and State Department documents, that “special mechanisms have been used over the last few years to shield Israel from US human rights laws.”

Authored by Jacob Burg via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

As the U.S. Justice Department decides whether to pursue a criminal case against Boeing, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) is investigating dozens of airplane incidents since January, including one in which a Swiss Air jet almost collided with four other planes on the runway at JFK International Airport in New York City.

The FAA has more than 100 aviation accidents and incidents since the beginning of 2024. These include airplane and helicopter crashes, equipment and mechanical malfunctions, and communication breakdowns with air traffic controllers that almost caused runway collisions at several major U.S. airports.

These incidents come as public scrutiny of Boeing increases after multiple issues have been reported with their jets. After an Alaskan Airways flight experienced a mid-air blowout of a door plug on Jan. 5, the Justice Department is considering revoking a 2021 deferred prosecution agreement with the company and pursuing a criminal case.

There is also growing criticism of Air Traffic Control (ATC) and the FAA’s hiring practices after multiple near-collisions were reported, including at JFK Airport and Reagan National Airport in Arlington, Virginia.

The JFK incident occurred on April 17. Pilots on a Swiss Air flight headed to Zurich, Switzerland, were forced to hit the brakes after the plane was cleared for takeoff because air traffic controllers simultaneously opened the runway for four other planes.

The next day, a similar incident played out at Reagan Washington National Airport, which services the Washington area. ATC cleared a JetBlue flight for takeoff as a Southwest Airlines flight was told to taxi across the same runway in front of it, according to ATC audio.

A runway controller cleared the JetBlue flight, while a taxiing controller cleared the Southwest Airlines flight. The two planes came within 400 feet of a collision before each controller ordered the planes to stop.

“JetBlue 1554 stop! 1554 stop!” said the tower controller, as the ground controller said “2937 stop!” to the Southwest Airlines plane.

Two airplanes—JetBlue and Southwest—nearly collided at DC’s Reagan National Airport on Thursday, avoiding each other by only 400 feet.

Air traffic control recordings show the moment controllers yelled at the JetBlue flight to “stop!” its takeoff.pic.twitter.com/Td1VTimVD0

— Julia ???? (@Jules31415) April 19, 2024

Since sudden runway stops can overheat airplane brakes, the JetBlue flight was inspected before it safely departed the airport.

The agency said it is investigating both incidents.

Juan Browne, a Boeing 777 first officer pilot for a major U.S. airline company, told The Epoch Times that while the number of airplane accidents has remained steady, ATC incidents are “on the rise.”

He said the “primary driver” of this phenomenon is the “huge turnover” in the industry, as controllers retired during the COVID-19 pandemic. Many retired early, creating a “big shortage of people, pilots, and air traffic controllers,” and some, including pilots and others, retired due to vaccine mandates.

However, other factors leading to ATC communication breakdowns include diversity-focused hiring practices, a bottleneck in controller training, distractions, and pilot error.

Diversity Hiring Practices

Many, including aviation expert Kyle Bailey, have called out the FAA for prioritizing “diversity” in its hiring practices, alleging that hiring pilots or controllers based on their skin instead of their merit, can lead to safety issues.

“Diversity really has nothing to do with safe travel,” Mr. Bailey told Fox News Digital in January.

The aviation agency’s “Diversity and Inclusion webpage, last updated on March 23, 2022, says, ”Diversity is integral to achieving the FAA’s mission of ensuring safe and efficient travel across our nation and beyond.”

In its  "Aviation Safety Workforce Plan, the agency explains this policy further.

“[Diversity] practices facilitate the organization in attracting and hiring talented applicants from diverse backgrounds and to meet future needs. A commitment to diversity and inclusion supports [aviation safety’s] strategic initiative to create a workforce with the leadership, technical, and functional skills necessary to ensure the U.S. has the world’s safest and most productive aviation sector.”

Later, the agency discusses how this can impact operations.

“The projected growth in demand and diversity from conventional customers, as well as new entrants in non-traditional areas will challenge the FAA’s ability to provide responsive and consistent service to our stakeholders, the report reads.

In February, a coalition of 11 Republican attorneys general, led by Kansas Attorney General Kris Kobach, submitted a letter to the FAA alleging that diversity hiring practices could put passengers’ lives at risk.

“It seems that the FAA has placed ‘diversity bean counting over safety and expertise, and we worry that such misordered priorities could be catastrophic for American travelers, Mr. Kobach wrote in the letter.

“Millions of Americans place their lives and the lives of their loved ones in the hands of your agency ... Unfortunately, the Biden FAA, under your administration, appears to prioritize virtue-signaling ‘diversity efforts over aviation expertise. And this calls into question the agency’s commitment to safety, he added.

The letter accused the Obama administration of seeking out applicants with “severe intellectual” and “psychiatric” disabilities, noting that the FAA’s “Diversity and Inclusion” webpage currently has the same language on it.

Mr. Browne, who has been a commercial pilot for 25 years, told The Epoch Times that there is a big drive towards on-the-job diversity in all U.S. industries, and aviation is no different.

“I can’t speak specifically to what those requirements are at the FAA ATC program, but we definitely need to ask ourselves: Are we hiring and training the correct people for the jobs?” he asked.

“How are we getting the most qualified applicants out there to fill these jobs?”

Retirements and Training ‘Bottleneck’

Another factor leading to issues with ATC is the sheer volume of retirements in the aviation industry during the pandemic, Mr. Browne said.

He explained that some pilots and air traffic controllers were close to retirement age when the pandemic started, with many deciding to retire early. This created a shortage of applicants and now a shortage of active workers, as both the FAA and ATC struggled to keep up when a waning pandemic caused airline travel demand to increase.

“So we got a lot of new folks out there on the job right now, a lot of on-the-job training going on right now. And a lot of mistakes being made up there as well,” he said.

Some also retired early because they declined to take the mRNA COVID-19 vaccine when it was briefly mandated by the FAA, Mr. Browne added.

With these early retirements came limited training opportunities and a “shortage of qualified controllers.”

“There was a big bottleneck in training throughout the aviation industry, whether it was for pilots or for air traffic controllers who have trained up in Oklahoma City, the home of the FAA,” Mr. Browne said.

“And so, now, the FAA is trying to do more with less.”

He explained that the agency is working its current and new controllers “much harder and longer hours than they have in the past” to “backfill” the demand after airlines quickly and unexpectedly recovered from the pandemic. This “exacerbated the shortage of both pilots and air traffic controllers,” Mr. Browne said.

In a statement to The Epoch Times, the FAA disputed the claim that there were “excessive controller retirements during the pandemic.”

Distractions, Infrastructure, Budget Issues

As a Boeing 777 pilot, Mr. Browne mostly flies overseas. When he flies into cities like London or Sydney, he says the radio channels through ATC are “a lot less chaotic” and more “organized” compared to the United States.

“Here in the States, we’re pushing so much material, so many aircraft through such a tight system and dealing with weather constantly,” he explained.

“And yet, there seems to be a lot of miscommunications between different members of the staff, for example, ground controllers versus tower controllers.”

It was a miscommunication between ground and tower controllers that resulted in the near-collision at Reagan Washington National Airport on April 18.

Mr. Browne said he often hears a lot of background noise coming over the radio from within the control towers. Pilots are instructed to maintain a “sterile cockpit” whenever they’re below 10,000 feet, he explained. That means pilots must refrain from any conversation outside plane operations until they reach that altitude to “avoid distractions.”

“Is that not the case with the ATC?” Mr. Browne asked.

He explained that working in ATC can be a boring job, so it’s “human nature to get distracted, to do something else to break the monotony,” even if it’s critical to avoid this to prevent putting passengers’ lives at risk.

However, it’s not just distractions leading to issues with coordinating plane routes on runways. The infrastructure throughout the aviation industry struggles to keep pace with the growing demand for air travel.

Mr. Browne explained that ATC, airports, runways, plane parking access, and the number of gates were all designed for “a lot less traffic.”

“But in general, where we are, the demand is outstripping the capacity of the system. And that leads to, in the case of the FAA controllers, a lot of overtime and a lot of tired controllers on the job,” he added.

There are also budget concerns for ATC. Mr. Browne wonders if Congress is allocating enough funds to keep pace with air travel demands but said that question is up to congressional leaders to consider.

Lastly, pilots are sometimes at fault as well for aviation incidents, he explained.

Mr. Browne said there are multiple factors worth considering in addressing these problems. Not only could Congress increase the FAA’s budget, but ATC can be more transparent when there are incidents like the ones on April 17 and 18.

When pilots make significant mistakes, a full investigation commences immediately. But for air traffic controllers, it’s not always the same approach, Mr. Browne said.

However, the most significant factor is getting the best applicants for pilot and air traffic controller positions.

“Make sure we’re hiring the right people for the job, regardless of who they are or what they are. Make sure you’re hiring the most qualified people for these very demanding jobs,” Mr. Browne added.

“If we continue to perform at this level, [these incidents] will eventually lead to a disaster.”

The FAA told The Epoch Times that it is working to address some of these issues, but did not specifically comment on the “diversity hiring” allegations.

“Hiring highly qualified air traffic controllers is a top priority at the FAA. Every FAA-certified air traffic controller has gone through months of screening and training at the FAA Academy, and that is before another 18-24 months of training to learn specific regions and airspace.

“There is a well-known national shortage of air traffic controllers and the FAA has ramped up outreach to ensure no talent is left on the table. We are accelerating the pace of recruiting, training, and hiring to meet demand while maintaining the highest qualification standards,” the agency said in a statement.

It was an ugly macro week...

Source: Bloomberg

...and worse still, 'growth' surprises disappointed significantly while 'inflation' surprises surprised to the upside significantly...

Source: Bloomberg

Soaring inflation expectations sent rate-cut expectations to new cycle lows...

Source: Bloomberg

...pushing yields higher across the board (led by the long-end)...

Source: Bloomberg

But, stocks didn't care about any of that because a handful of mega-cap tech stocks' earnings were awesome (except META) - and that's what matters (for now)...

Source: Bloomberg

Nasdaq outperformed, up 4% on the week (its best week since the start of Nov 2023). The Dow was the laggard on the week but all the majors had a decent week...

Not the best week for some observers...

Traders 1: Marko 0 https://t.co/T6PHjRSrMF

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) April 26, 2024

This week saw the biggest short-squeeze since the first week of March...

Source: Bloomberg

And the basket of Magnificent 7 stocks soared over 5% this week, its best week since the first week of November (Fed Pivot) - but it was noisy as TSLA surged, META tumbled, and then GOOGL/MSFT lifted the lid...

Source: Bloomberg

Tech and Discretionary outperformed on the week with Energy and Materials lagging (but all sectors ended the week green)...

Source: Bloomberg

5.00% remains the Maginot Line for the 2Y Yield...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, the dollar ended the week practically unchanged - despite a lot of noise...

Source: Bloomberg

...despite the seventh straight week of declines in the yen vs the dollar as it appears the BoJ and MoF have given up...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was dumped this week - its worst week since the start of December 2023. Spot prices did find support at $2300 though...

Source: Bloomberg

After two down weeks, oil prices rallied this week, with WTI back above $83...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, intraday volatility has picked up dramatically in the last couple of weeks...

Source: Bloomberg

...as the distribution of possible rate outcomes has picked up significantly. Don't forget next week's QRA and FOMC as Yellen and Powell get 'back to work'.

Officials at the Port of Baltimore opened a fourth, 35-foot deep, temporary channel through the collapsed Francis Scott Key Bridge, allowing cargo ships trapped at the port to exit. 

According to Bloomberg's ship tracking data, four of seven ships trapped at the port navigated the new temporary channel and are sailing down the Chesapeake Bay. 

On Thursday, the Balsa 94, a bulk carrier sailing under a Panama flag, transited the temporary channel for Saint John, Canada. Three other ships, including the Saimaagracht cargo vessel, the Carmen vehicle carrier, and the Phatra Naree bulk carrier, were also able to exit. 

The general cargo ship Balsa 94 becomes the first ship to use the @portofbalt's 35-foot-deep Limited Access Channel promised by the @USACEHQ by the end of April. The ship had been stuck in the harbor since the March 26 collapse of the Key Bridge.

Updated story here:… pic.twitter.com/LZeE9o5rne

— gCaptain (@gCaptain) April 25, 2024

The new 35-foot depth channel is a massive increase compared to smaller channels opened several weeks after the Dali container ship slammed into the bridge one month ago, toppling the bridge and paralyzing the port. 

"While this is a significant achievement, we have a long way to go, and Unified Command is committed to fully opening the channel by the end of May," US Coast Guard Cmdr. Baxter Smoak told reporters. 

Next week, salvage crews expect to refloat Dali, which will then be pushed back to port by tugboats for inspection. Once Dali and all debris are removed, the main shipping channel could reopen next month. 

However, Ben Schafer, an engineering professor at Johns Hopkins University, told AP News that a new bridge could take five to seven years to be rebuilt. 

"The lead time on air conditioning equipment right now for a home renovation is like 16 months, right?" Schafer said. 

He continued: "So it's like you're telling me they're going to build a whole bridge in two years? I want it to be true, but I think empirically it doesn't feel right to me."

Let's remember that the bridge was critical for the port and a critical feeder to the Interstate 95 highway network up and down the mid-Atlantic area. Local supply chain snarls will persist for years. 

Authored by Darlene McCormick Sanchez via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

Conservative states across the country—Florida, Iowa, Louisiana, Tennessee, Georgia, and Oklahoma—are taking border security matters into their own hands, proposing or passing legislation targeting illegal immigration.

The Oklahoma legislature just passed a bill designed to prohibit illegal immigrants from entering or living in the state.

HB 4156 states: “A person commits an impermissible occupation if the person is an alien and willfully and without permission enters and remains in the State of Oklahoma without having first obtained legal authorization to enter the United States.”

The bill passed the state House and Senate by wide margins and Gov. Kevin Stitt, a Republican, is expected to sign it into law.

The legislature declared the issue a crisis in the state and stated in the bill: “Throughout the state, law enforcement comes into daily and increasingly frequent contact with foreign nationals who entered the country illegally or who remain here illegally.

“Often, these persons are involved with organized crime such as drug cartels, they have no regard for Oklahoma’s laws or public safety, and they produce or are involved with fentanyl distribution, sex trafficking, and labor trafficking.”

Under the new law, a conviction related to “impermissible occupation” would be considered a misdemeanor, punishable by up to one year in a county jail, a fine of up to $500, or both.

Subsequent offenses are felonies, punishable by up to two years in prison, a fine of up to $1,000, or both.

Illegal immigrants who are barred from the country or have been issued a removal order by an immigration judge, and then enter Oklahoma will face a felony charge carrying a possible sentence of up to two years in prison, a fine of up to $1,000, or both.

In all instances, those found guilty must leave Oklahoma within 72 hours of being convicted or released from custody.

The law requires police to collect fingerprints, photographs, and biometric data, which will be cross-checked with Oklahoma State Bureau of Investigation databases.

“The failure of the federal government to address this issue … has turned every state into a border state,” said bill sponsor state Rep. Charles Mr. McCall said in a statement.

“Those who want to work through the process of coming to our country legally are more than welcome to come to Oklahoma; we would love to have them here. We will not reward [illegal immigration] in Oklahoma, and we will protect our state borders.”

U.S. border authorities have apprehended more than 9 million illegal immigrants nationwide under President Joe Biden, according to Customs and Border Protection (CBP) data.

Under the administration’s catch-and-release policy, many have been released into the United States and have taken up residence all over the country.

Texas’ law, Senate Bill 4, makes it a state crime to enter Texas outside legal ports of entry.

The new law was set to go into effect in March, but has been blocked and is currently tied up in the courts.

New Iowa, Tennessee, and Georgia Laws

Earlier this month, Iowa’s Republican Gov. Kim Reynolds signed Senate File 2340 into law.

The new law, which goes into effect July 1, makes it a misdemeanor to be in the state or attempt to enter the state after being deported, denied admission to the United States, or if an individual has an outstanding deportation order.

Being in the state illegally becomes a felony under certain circumstances such as the accused having two or more misdemeanor convictions involving drugs or crimes against a person.

As with the Texas law, it gives judges the discretion to drop the charges if the illegal immigrant agrees to return to the country from which he or she entered the United States.

“Those who come into our country illegally have broken the law, yet Biden refuses to deport them,” Ms. Reynolds stated in a news release.

“This bill gives Iowa law enforcement the power to do what he is unwilling to do: enforce immigration laws already on the books.”

Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee signed a new law this month that requires law enforcement agencies to communicate with federal immigration authorities if they discover people are in the country illegally, requiring in most cases cooperation in the process of identifying, catching, detaining, and deporting them.

The law takes effect July 1.

“When there is an interaction with law enforcement, it’s important that the appropriate authorities are notified of the status of that individual,” Mr. Lee, a Republican, told reporters after signing the bill into law. “I think that makes sense. So, I’m in support of that legislation.”

Members of the Tennessee House blamed President Biden’s lack of border enforcement for the necessity of the law.

“President Biden’s administration has delivered this pain to our doorsteps,” Tennessee state Rep. Chris Todd said on the House floor.

In Georgia, lawmakers passed House Bill 1105 that would require jailers to check the immigration status of inmates.

The bill is part of an ongoing political response to the February slaying of nursing student Laken Riley on the University of Georgia campus, allegedly by an illegal immigrant from Venezuela.

The man, Jose Antonio Ibarra, was arrested in February on murder and assault charges in the death of the 22-year-old.

Immigration officials say Mr. Ibarra, 26, crossed into the United States illegally in 2022. The Department of Homeland Security confirmed to Sen. Lindsey Graham(R-S.C.)  that Mr. Ibarra was paroled into the country illegally due to “capacity problems” at border detention facilities

The Georgia bill was sent to Republican Gov. Brian Kemp’s desk on April 3 and awaits his signature, at which time most measures would take effect immediately.

Louisiana, Arizona, New Hampshire

Texas’ neighbor, Louisiana, is considering the passage of SB 388, a GOP-led bill that would allow state police to arrest suspected illegal immigrants within the state.

The law passed the chamber on April 8 along party lines and headed to the House, also controlled by Republicans.

“Louisiana is one step closer to securing our border and addressing our illegal immigration crisis,” Republican state Sen. Valarie Hodges, the bill’s sponsor, posted on X.

The battleground state of Arizona passed a law similar to Texas’ HB 4, but its Democratic Gov. Katy Hobbs vetoed it.

That inspired the Legislature to draft a ballot measure to be put to voters in November that would require businesses to use E-verify. E-verify is a voluntary federal online service for employers to check an employee’s eligibility to work in the United States against Department of Homeland Security and Social Security records.

New Hampshire, which is Republican-led, passed SB 504 allowing police to bring criminal trespassing charges against people suspected of illegally entering the United States from Canada. The measure must be approved by the House to advance.

Cities and Counties

Cities and counties in red and blue states are also pushing back in creative ways to stop illegal immigrants from coming into their jurisdictions.

“They’re basically dumped on their doorstep,” said Jessica Vaughan, director of policy studies at the Center for Immigration Studies, a “pro-immigrant, low-immigration” think tank.

In June 2023, New York City under Democratic Mayor Eric Adams sued more than 30 New York local governments alleging they issued unlawful executive orders prohibiting temporary housing for illegal immigrants in their jurisdictions.

Counties such as Orange and Rockland in upstate New York were successful in using local zoning laws to stop the mayor from busing illegal immigrants to live in their hotels.

The state Supreme Court granted Rockland a temporary restraining order against the mayor’s plan after the county argued that local zoning laws bar hotels from operating as shelters.

Orange County was granted a similar ruling.

Likewise, zoning was used by the city of Taunton, Massachusetts, to stop illegal immigrants from living in hotels, Ms. Vaughan said.

In May 2023, the state was paying millions of dollars to house some 120 homeless and migrant families at a local hotel long-term.

Taunton city leaders filed a lawsuit against the hotel, claiming it violated its occupancy limit for nearly four months. The city aims to collect $114,600 in fines.

Residents in these small communities often struggle with housing and obtaining services that illegal immigrants get for free, Ms. Vaughan noted.

“Now paying taxes, essentially, to support these illegal migrants in their town. The schools have to accommodate them. And that’s a huge cost on the local taxpayers,” she said.

In Colorado’s Mesa County, commissioners passed a resolution in February declaring the county a “non-sanctuary county,” and denying shelter and services to illegal aliens sent there by the state or federal government, she said.

Commissioners also passed a resolution to send a letter to Denver Mayor Mike Johnston informing him the county doesn’t plan to help the city deal with its illegal immigrant surge.

Ms. Vaughan said that she believes other states are waiting to see what happens with some of Texas’ laws, such as SB 4, which are aimed at deterring illegal immigration.

“I think the feeling among most state and local officials that I’ve talked to about it is that they are watching and waiting and hoping that the court will draw some boundaries for them on what they can and cannot do,” she said.

Florida’s Laws

When it comes to making life more difficult for illegal immigrants through legislation, Florida has proven as aggressive as Texas.

Besides beefing up law enforcement to help the U.S. Coast Guard spot migrants and sending the Florida National Guard to Texas, Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has approved laws to deter illegal aliens from staying in the Sunshine State.

The Republican governor signed SB 1718 in 2023, which was criticized by the left as one of the most anti-illegal immigrant pieces of legislation in the country.

Read more here...

With oil prices enjoying a powerful renaissance in recent months amid mounting supply concerns, declining inventory and the growing possibility that China's economy may finally kickstart, energy giants such as Exxon and Chevron had enjoyed a similar rebound in their stock price, and in fact XOM hit a record high as recently as 2 weeks ago. Which is why many were looking to today's earnings reports by the largest US energy company to see if the numbers would validate the rebound in sentiment and, of course, price.

So here is what Exxon reported today for the first quarter:

• EPS of $2.06, down from 2.83 a year ago, and missing consensus estimates of $2.19, as a result of delayed bump in commodity prices (which however will lift results in Q2) and a spike in non-cash charges

The Net Income number was $8.22 billion, down from $11.618 billion a year ago, with weakness in Upstream and Energy products hitting the bottom line number, coupled with an increases in expenses.  The biggest factor behind the drop in earnings was a $2.6 billion hit to price/margin due to lower energy prices in Q1. However, with Brent now well above year ago levels and rising, what XOM lost in Q1 it will more than make up in Q2 absent a collapse in the energy market.

A breakdown by the various operating segments, reveals that price and margin were indeed the biggest culprits for declining earnings.

Taking a closer look at the company's two main divisions, Upstream and Energy products, the company provided the following detail for the somewhat disappointing earnings here:

Starting with Upstream:

• Lower gas realizations due to high industry inventory
• Advantaged assets volume improved due to continued growth in Guyana
  • >600 Kbd of Guyana quarterly gross production
  • Payara ramped up to 220 Kbd capacity well ahead of schedule
• Base volume lower due to unfavorable sales timing and entitlement impacts
• Timing effects had a negative $120 million impact on the quarter compared to a negative $160 million impact last quarter

Energy products, where we saw the bulk of the earnings delta (some $1.7BN in earnings reductions between Q4 and Q1), was more interesting as Exxon attributed the slide to three primary drivers:

• Volumes and expenses reflect higher scheduled maintenance activity
• Non-cash charges which reflected the absence of favorable year-end inventory impacts, and unfavorable tax adjustments
• Finally, timing effects which had a negative $460 million impact on the quarter, consistent with rising price environment compared to a positive $600 million impact last quarter.

“Any given quarter we’ll have a number of non-cash, just a bit more unusual expenses that kind of ebb and flow,” CFO Kathy Mikells told BBG in an interview. “This quarter we had a number of small ones that added up together to be more significant and that’s difficult for analysts to model.”

“We continue to bring projects in more quickly and under budget so we’ve just had great execution in Guyana,” Mikells said, noting that gross daily production is now more than 600,000 barrels, up from 440,000 in the final three months of 2023.

Exxon’s accounting charges were non-cash items associated with tax and inventory balance sheet adjustments, Mikells said. The company also had higher expenses from scheduled maintenance at its facilities.

Some more highlights from the report:

• Exxon started output at Payara, its third Guyanese development, ahead of schedule late last year, adding 220,000 barrels of daily supplies that earn profits even if crude plunges to the $35 mark.
• Achieved quarterly gross production of more than 600,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day in Guyana and reached a final investment decision on the sixth major development.
• Net production was 47,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day lower than the same quarter last year with the growth in advantaged Guyana volumes more than offsetting the earnings impact from lower base volumes due to divestments, government-mandated curtailments and unfavorable entitlement effects.
• Excluding the impacts from divestments, entitlements, and government-mandated curtailments, net production grew 77,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day driven by the start-up of the Payara development in Guyana.

What is remarkable is that even though earnings missed mostly on the timing effect of commodity price increases and one-time charges, which has sent the stock tumbling this morning, the company still managed to blow away expectations for cash generation: in Q1, cash from operations jumped to $14.7 billion, $1 billion higher than Q4 2023 and also $1 billion higher than forecasts, boosted by the more than 35% uplift in Guyanese crude production.

This in turn led to a $1.8 billion increase in the company's cash balance despite $6.8 billion in shareholders distributions including $3.8 billion in dividends.

Exxon’s capital spending was $5.8 billion in the first quarter, a third lower than the previous three month period when the company incurred some added Guyana costs. If that level of spending is repeated for the rest of the year, annual capital expenditure would come in at the low end of the company’s $23 billion to $25 billion guidance, and in a market where capital efficiency is extremely rewarded, it likely means that new all time highs are just weeks if not days away.

More importantly, XOM says that it is on pace to increase buybacks to $20 billion following the close of the Pioneer acquisition, some time in Q2.

Exxon’s stellar performance in Guyana explains why arch-rival Chevron wants to get into the project via a $53 billion takeover of Hess, which has a 30% stake. Exxon claims it has a right-of-first refusal over Hess’s stake while Chevron says that doesn’t apply because its deal is a corporate merger.

Arbitration is still in its “very early days,” Mikells said. Each side has chosen one arbitrator who will sit on a panel of three, she said. Hess this week extended the closing date of its deal with Chevron by six months to October.

Finally looking ahead, the company forecast that it is on track to more than double upstream profits by 2027...

... and with cost-savings expected to save another $5BN in spending by 2027 (a total of $15BN vs 2019), this translates into a stellar 10% CAGR in bottom line earnings, and about $10BN in incremental earnings potential by 2027.

So in its infinite wisdom, when faced with a company that is generating more cash than 99% of companies - and is not reliant on hype and chatbots to keep growing but good, old-fashioned energy which may be boring but is what keeps the world turning - this morning the algos decided to dump their Exxon shares sending the stock some 4% lower, and allowing anyone who pays attention to load up on the dip.

The XOM Q1 investor presentation is below (pdf link)

Having already lost more than 10% of its value versus the US dollar this year, the yen plunged further overnight after Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda indicated monetary policy will stay easy as he kept rates unchanged and showed little to no support for the embattled currency during the press conference.

While investors had not expected the BoJ to change its policy this week, there was an expectations that Ueda would strike a hawkish tone regarding future rate rises to slow the yen’s decline.

Instead, Ueda said at a news conference on Friday that the central bank’s board members judged there was “no major impact” from the weaker yen on underlying inflation for now.

“Currency rates is not a target of monetary policy to directly control,” he said.

“But currency volatility could be an important factor in impacting the economy and prices. If the impact on underlying inflation becomes too big to ignore, it may be a reason to adjust monetary policy.”

And that sent the currency reeling (amid chaotic swings) back above 157/USD...

Source: Bloomberg

“There is no intention by the BoJ to stop the yen’s decline, at least looking at its statement and its outlook report,” said UBS economist Masamichi Adachi.

“The finance ministry will have to act [to stem the yen weakness]... It would have been more effective if both the government and the BoJ faced the same direction,” he added.

Blowing further below the 'interventionist' levels seen previously to a fresh 34-year low...

Source: Bloomberg

“Markets remain on high alert for any indication of whether the yen’s current weakness will be interpreted as a lasting inflationary signal,” said Naomi Fink, global strategist at Nikko Asset Management.

“The BoJ however is likelier to find any knock-on impact from yen weakness upon inflation as more concerning than short-term currency moves.”

Driving the depreciation is the yawning gap between the interest rates in the US - which are at highest in decades after the Fed’s aggressive tightening cycle last year - and those in Japan, where borrowing costs remain stubbornly low near zero.

“Intervention is possible at anytime, but it could have been just someone selling a large lot, which stoked intervention speculation and spurred follow-through moves,” said Koji Fukaya, a fellow at Market Risk Advisory Co. in Tokyo.

“It does not look like intervention, but the only way to confirm is to check data that will be released later by the Ministry of Finance.”

Policymakers have repeatedly warned that depreciation won’t be tolerated if it goes too far too fast.

Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki reiterated after the BoJ meeting that the government will respond appropriately to foreign exchange moves.

Potential triggers for interventions are public holidays in Japan on Monday and Friday next week, which bring the risk of volatility amid thin trading.

“Should the yen fall further from here, like after the BOJ decision in September 2022, the possibility of intervention will increase,” said Hirofumi Suzuki, chief currency strategist at Sumitomo Mitsui Banking Corp.

“It is not the level but it’s the speed that will trigger the action.”

But so far, nothing! And so the market continues to call Ueda and Suzuki's bluff, knowing full well that a sudden intervention will perhaps briefly support the currency but will pancake the current gains in Japanese stocks.

However, not everyone is convinced intervention is imminent.

In a note this morning, Deutsche Bank says the currency's decline is warranted and finally marks the day where the market realizes that Japan is following a policy of benign neglect for the yen.

We have long argued that FX intervention is not credible and the toning down of verbal jawboning from the finance minister overnight is on balance a positive from a credibility perspective. The possibility of intervention can't be ruled out if the market turns disorderly, but it is also notable that Governor Ueda played down the importance of the yen in his press conference today as well as signalling no urgency to hike rates. We would frame the ongoing yen collapse around the following points.

1. Yen weakness is simply not that bad for Japan. The tourism sector is booming, profit margins on the Nikkei are soaring and exporter competitiveness is increasing. True, the cost of imported items is going up. But growth is fine, the government is helping offset some of the cost via subsidies and core inflation is not accelerating. Most importantly, the Japanese are huge foreign asset owners via Japan’s positive net international investment position. Yen weakness therefore leads to huge capital gains on foreign bonds and equities, most easily summarized in the observation that the government pension fund (GPIF) has roughly made more profits over the last two years than the last twenty years combined.

2. There simply isn't an inflation problem. Japan's core CPI is around 2% and has been decelerating in recent months. The Tokyo CPI overnight was 1.7% excluding one-off effects. To be sure, inflation may well accelerate again helped by FX weakness and high wage growth. But the starting point of inflation is entirely different to the post-COVID hiking cycles of the Fed and ECB. By extension, the inflation pain is far less and the urgency to hike far less too. No where is this more obvious than the fact that Japanese consumer confidence are close to their cycle highs.

3. Negative real rates are great. There is a huge attraction to running negative real rates for the consolidated government balance sheet. As we demonstrated last year, it creates fiscal space via a $20 trillion carry trade while also generating asset gains for Japan's wealthy voting base. This encourages the persistent domestic capital outflows we have been highlighting as a key driver of yen weakness over the last year and that have pushed Japan's broad basic balance to being one of the weakest in the world. It is not speculators that are weakening the yen but the Japanese themselves.

The bottom line, Deutscxhe concludes, is that for the JPY to turn stronger the Japanese need to unwind their carry trade. But for this to make sense the Bank of Japan needs to engineer an expedited hiking cycle similar to the post-COVID experiences of other central banks. Time will tell if the BoJ is moving too slow and generating a policy mistake. A shift in BoJ inflation forecasts to well above 2% over their forecast horizon would be the clearest signal of a shift in reaction function. But this isn’t happening now.

The Japanese are enjoying the ride.

But there is potential for yen upside as Bloomberg's Simon White notes that profit taking on foreign asset positions might soon prompt some yen repatriation and pressure USD/JPY lower.

If it is perceived that the yen won’t get much cheaper due to intervention risk, domestic investors might choose to start switching some of their US equity positions back to the domestic market, repatriating yen and pressuring USD/JPY lower in the process.

The chart below shows that on the year, the Nasdaq in yen terms and the Nikkei are both up by the same 13%-14% on the year. A stronger yen would present an ongoing headwind to the US position.

Equity positions are typically less FX hedged than bond positions, meaning that the repatriation of the currency is not neutered by the unwind of the hedge.

The dynamics of spot trading, options barriers and potential intervention as well as US PCE data released later today will dominate the currency’s short-term gyrations, but the slightly longer-term considerations of profit taking on foreign positions will start to drive the medium-term outlook.

Once that trend establishes itself, longer-term drivers of the yen will come into focus. Japan is the world’s largest net creditor, and there is a significant structural short in the yen.

The country’s net international investment position is $3.3 trillion, but its net position in portfolio assets, i.e. so-called hot flows that could be liquidated quickly, is $4.4 trillion.

Only a fraction of that being repatriated has significant potential to drive the yen considerably higher.

The question is, how much pain is China willing to take from its regional neighbor's 'devaluation'?

Short-term inflation expectations rose... again... according to the latest UMich sentiment survey with 1-year expectations at 3.2% final, up from preliminary 3.1% for April, and 2.9% for March. This is the highest level since Nov 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

The headline sentiment also declined in April from three-year-highs. Consumers’ perceptions of their current financial situation and the economic outlook over the next year both slid to four-month lows. The current conditions gauge dropped to 79 from 82.5. A measure of expectations fell to 76 from 77.4.

Source: Bloomberg

While “consumers’ frustration over high prices in their day-to-day spending decisions grew this month, price concerns for large purchases - durable goods, vehicles, and homes - were all little changed from last month,’’ Joanne Hsu, director of the survey, said in a statement.

About 38% of consumers reported that high prices were weighing down their living standards, up from 33% who said so last month.

Sentiment gauges also provide insight into voters’ feelings about the economy and their finances leading up to the presidential election in November. President Joe Biden’s recent polling bump in key battleground states has mostly evaporated amid economic pessimism, the latest Bloomberg News/Morning Consult poll found.

“Consumers continue to express uncertainty about the future trajectory of the economy pending the outcomes of the upcoming election,” Hsu said.

Partisan differences in views of the economy remain pronounced. While Democrats and Independents saw little change in sentiment this month, sentiment for Republicans fell about 6 index points.

Republicans reported declines for four of the five components of the sentiment index, reflecting their deteriorating views across multiple facets of the economy. Despite these declines, sentiment for Republicans remains well above 2022 and 2023 levels.

In fact, the current reading for Republicans’ Expectations Index is the second highest (after last month) since the end of 2020, as the Trump presidency came to a close.

Just days after the Biden administration signed a new military aid package worth billions of dollars to Ukraine, Kyiv launched a series of suicide drone attacks on Russian oil refineries. Biden's top officials have pleaded with Kyiv to stop attacks on Russia's energy infrastructure because of the fears that turmoil in crude markets would send pump prices in the US higher ahead of the presidential elections in November. 

"Our region is again under attack by Ukrainian UAVs," Smolensk Governor Vasily Anokhin wrote in a post on Telegram on Wednesday. Kamikaze drones damaged oil facilities in western Russia. 

Another drone attack hit the Lipetsk region further south, which is home to steel production plants and pharmaceutical sites, Governor Igor Artamonov said.

"The Kyiv criminal regime tried to hit infrastructure in Lipetsk industrial zone," Artamonov said. 

The Moscow Times pointed out:

A source in the Ukrainian defense sector confirmed to AFP on Wednesday that drones in the service of the Security Service of Ukraine (SBU) had carried out the attacks.

The source made no mention of the attack on Lipetsk but claimed two oil depots were destroyed in the Smolensk region.

"Rosneft lost two storage and pumping bases for fuels and lubricants in the towns of Yartsevo and Rozdorovo," the source said, referring to the Russian state-controlled energy giant.

The Financial Times, citing unnamed US officials, recently said long-range drones have hit at least 20 energy facilities deep within Russia so far this year. Kyiv's drone attacks on Russia's energy complex have been frightening for the Biden administration, as Brent prices have risen to the $90/bbl level on higher war risk premiums. Higher energy costs feed into inflation as stagflation concerns mount in the US. Also, gasoline pump prices in the US are inching closer to the politically sensitive $4 level. 

According to AAA data, the average cost of gas at the pump across the US was $3.66 as of Thursday, up from $3.10 in mid-January. 

"The recent uptick in US consumer price inflation, driven by services, housing and fuel, is already of concern to the Biden administration, which is hoping to secure a second term in the November election," Markus Korhonen, senior associate at geopolitical risk consultancy S-RM, told Newsweek.

In recent weeks, Brent prices jumped to the $90bbl to $92bbl range on a higher war risk premium as Israel and Iran volleyed missiles and drones at each other. Prices sank to as low as the $85bbl handle as the market saw the Middle East conflict was just theatrics. However, prices have increased from $85bbl earlier this week, to $89.50 on Friday morning - perhaps on new fears of tighter Russia supplies. 

The latest Bloomberg data shows Russian seaborne crude exports hit a multi-month high in the four weeks to April 21. Refineries in the country have struggled to be repaired from the series of drone attacks as oil processing sinks to lows last seen in May 2023 when floods forced the Orsk refinery offline. 

So far, Ukraine has only attacked oil-processing facilities deep within Russia, avoiding crude and crude product export ports. 

"Should Ukraine begin also targeting crude oil facilities, this could threaten Russia's overall production and exports and, more meaningfully, global oil prices would tick up, driving up inflation and cost-of-living pressures in the US and elsewhere," said Korhonen, adding, "It would also raise the prospects of Russia retaliating, for example, targeting energy infrastructure that the West relies on."

The ultimate goal of Ukraine's drone attacks is to reduce Moscow's oil revenues that finance the war. This means that Russia's crude export ports will be targeted at some point. And we're 100% sure the Biden administration is terrified about this ahead of the elections. 

If that happens, "it would not only bring up the price of oil, it would put a lot of pressure on inflation because of the impact on prices," said O'Donnell.

The question becomes when does Kyiv begin hitting Russia's crude export terminals. 

Authored by George Ford Smith via The Mises Institute,

The first thing to know about Dr. Thomas E. Woods, Jr.’s’ book Our Enemy, the Fed is he’s giving it away. Click the link, get your copy and read the whole book. Clearly, such intellectual charity is not only rare but in the educational spirit of Mises.org. The subject matter is light-heavy but Woods, author of the bestseller Meltdown (reviewed here), navigates it with the smooth skill of a master, making the reader experience satisfying from beginning to end.

The title reflects another insight, paralleling as it does Albert Jay Nock’s Our Enemy, the State. Most of us were raised to believe government and its agencies serve our best interests. As libertarian scholarship has shown the truth is the exact opposite, particularly with government’s sleazy relationship with money and banking.

Admittedly, it’s a hard idea to accept since it involves a pernicious breach of trust, but Woods makes it abundantly clear. To our overlords we are easily-duped chattel.

Until Ron Paul decided to run for president and his End the Fed came along in 2009, the general public was mostly blind to the Fed’s existence. Austrians aside, the few who knew something about it — mostly university-trained economists on the take from the Fed — considered it a vital part of an advanced industrial economy. Yet the Fed had been around for 96 years when Dr. Paul’s book emerged. Given that it’s in charge of the money we use how did it remain in the shadows for tax-burdened citizens for nearly a century? What’s up with that?

The Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis tells us the Fed’s congressional assignment is “to promote maximum employment and price stability.” (Bold in original) For these it talks about interest rates, and its aim is to increase the money supply so that prices rise gently at or around a 2 percent rate. 

How gentle is a two percent rate? After 10 years of two percent monetary inflation, it would take $121.90 to buy what $100 bought in year one. But that’s over a decade, and you might not notice it unless you’re one of the hungry poor not on welfare. The Fed’s inflation of the money supply has been ongoing since it began operations in 1914, draining 96 percent of the dollar’s purchasing power.

On what planet is a 96 percent devaluation considered stability? Its real purpose is to inflate then assure us it makes good sense. Never mind the boom - bust cycle it creates along with the debauchery of our currency. We’re being gaslighted. Where did all the newly-created money go? 

Dr. Paul, who had a long career in Congress whose confrontations with Fed Chairmen Alan Greenspan and Ben Bernanke have become legendary in libertarian circles, tells us:

Law permits this highly secretive, private bank to create credit at will and distribute it as it sees fit.

The chairman of the Federal Reserve can blatantly inject in a public hearing that he has no intention of revealing where the newly created credit goes and who benefits. When asked, he essentially answered, “It’s none of your business,” saying that it would be “counterproductive” to do so. [My italics]

The picture I get is of people in a hideout somewhere — in this case, the FOMC meeting in the Eccles building in Washington, D.C. — cranking out money then injecting it into the economy in some mysterious manner, while telling us in Keynesian doublespeak their operations keep us safe and prosperous.

Is it really hard to fathom that those in charge might be up to no good?

Woods comes out swinging

After defining the Federal Reserve System — the Fed — as the American central bank enjoying “a government-granted monopoly on the creation of legal-tender money,” Woods proceeds to evaluate the Fed from a broad or macro perspective. 

What exactly did the Fed fix? Christina Romer who served under Obama as Chair of his Council of Economic Advisors found that “recessions were in fact not more frequent in the pre-Fed than the post-Fed period.” Even comparing the periods of 1796-1915 to post-WW II — thus omitting the Great Depression of 1930-1945 — “economist Joseph Davis finds no appreciable difference between the length and duration of recessions as compared to the period of the Fed.”

Woods takes us back through American history to see how banking and credit developed. Government, which has no money of its own, befriends ones that have it. During the period between the expiration of the first Bank of the US and the creation of the Second Bank of the US — 1811-1817 — the government granted banks the privilege of expanding credit unsecured by deposits while allowing them to tell depositors attempting to withdraw their money to “come back in a couple of years.” While banks could be charged with legal counterfeiting and embezzlement, Woods does not use the terms. In fact, nowhere in the book does he use the words “counterfeit” or “embezzle.”

When the Second Bank of the US started inflating in 1817 it created the Panic of 1819. He writes:

The lesson of that sorry episode — namely, that the economy gets taken on a wild and unhealthy ride when the money supply is dramatically and artificially increased and then suddenly reduced — was so obvious that even the political class managed to figure it out.

Many inflationists before the panic became hard-money believers after. Condy Raguet and Daniel Raymond, a disciple of Alexander Hamilton, became hard-money advocates and wrote books on economics. John Quincy Adams cited the hard-money Bank of Amsterdam “as a a model to emulate.”

But the inflationists persisted and pushed for more government intervention, and Unit banking in particular:

In the nineteenth century, nearly all American states instituted a regulation known as unit banking, which limited all banks to a single office. No branch banking was allowed, whether intrastate or interstate. The obvious result was a very fragile and undiversified banking system in which banks could be brought to ruin if local conditions turned sour.

Fractional-reserve banking is a major cause of bank panics. But the US went further. Other countries did not “cripple their banking systems” with unit banking laws. Canada, in particular, had no unit banking laws and no banking panics. The Bank of Canada did not emerge until 1934:

As Milton Friedman was fond of pointing out, although the Great Depression claimed over 9,000 American banks, the number of banks that failed in Canada at that time was zero. American bank panics, it turns out, were in large part the result of government intervention — in the form of unit banking — in the first place.

Yet it was the market and the imposed pseudo-gold standard that took the blame, and Americans got Hoover’s meddling then FDR’s New Deal.

Later in the book Woods mentions the hands-off approach to the depression of 1920-1921, “which saw unemployment shoot up to 12.4 percent and production decline by 17 percent. Wholesale prices fell by 56 percent.” And the Fed kept its printing press quiet. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research the depression was over by the summer of 1921.

Falling prices are bad?

One of the strongest parts of Woods’ book is his treatment of deflation — falling prices. It is only in the inflationary world of larcenous economics that falling prices are the “It” to be avoided.

A few of the points he makes:

• Increasing the money supply to support increased production is a fallacy. “Any supply of money can facilitate any number of transactions.”

• The money supply under a hard money system grows “relatively slowly, and the supply of other goods and services increases more rapidly. With these goods and services more abundant with respect to money, their prices fall.”

• The claim that people would stop buying things if they knew prices would fall ignores the fact that people “value goods in the present more highly than they do the same goods in the future. This factor offsets the desire to wait indefinitely for a lower price.”

• If deflation is anticipated entrepreneurs and the firms they deal with would adjust their bids accordingly.

• With the increase in money’s purchasing power people could save simply by hoarding.

• Who’s hurt the most by deflation? The power centers in society — government and Wall Street. We hear hysteria over deflation because it hurts the establishment the most, “and only the mildest concern about inflation, which hurts everyone else.”

Conclusion

Tom Woods has published another gem and is giving it away. The war we’re fighting now depends for its outcome on sound information and, as always, personal integrity. Never forget, the Fed must go. His book provides much of the intellectual ammunition needed to neutralize the enemy and avoid repeating the mistakes that brought us this mess in the first place.

Just as President Biden was signing into effect the newly approved foreign defense package which includes $60 billion for Ukraine, the United Kingdom also rolled out its own massive aid package (though paling in comparison), first unveiled Tuesday.

Britain announced its single largest aid package for Ukraine yet, at the equivalent of $620 million (£500 million). According to UK NATO officials, the arms include Storm Shadow missiles among a total of 1,600 strike and air defense missiles, four million rounds of ammo, 60 boats, and over 400 vehicles.

Even though the White House is busy cautioning that in the coming months Russia is likely to make more gains on the front lines, according to fresh words of Jake Sullivan, British leadership is still talking about "winning".

Defense Minister Grant Shapps, for example, had this to say about new aid: "This record package of military aid will give President Zelensky and his brave nation more of the kit they need to kick Putin out and restore peace and stability in Europe."

"The UK was the first to provide NLAW missiles, the first to give modern tanks, and the first to send long-range missiles," he added. "Now, we are going even further. We will never let the world forget the existential battle Ukraine is fighting, and with our enduring support, they will win."

Britain's military leadership is also echoing this optimism, with UK defense chief, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin, telling Financial Times that the West's new infusion of military aid will help Ukraine increase its long-range strikes on Russian territory:

Ukraine is set to increase long-range attacks inside Russia as an influx of western military aid aims to help Kyiv shape the war “in much stronger ways”, the head of the UK military has said.

Admiral Sir Tony Radakin acknowledged the downbeat mood surrounding Ukraine’s defence in an interview with the Financial Times, admitting the country was facing a “difficult” fight to repel advancing Russian forces.

But Britain’s chief of defence, a key figure in the west’s military support for Kyiv, stressed that such a gloomy “snapshot” of the war failed to recognise longer trends more in Kyiv’s favour.

Adm. Radakin continued, "As Ukraine gains more capabilities for the long-range fight?.?.?.?its ability to continue deep operations will [increasingly] become a feature" of the war. He emphasized of new weapons systems, "they definitely have an effect."

UK leadership has of late put the country's defense industry on a "war footing" in preparation to support Kiev for the long haul. More of Radakin's words point to escalation (and not negotiations) in the following...

"Don’t expect anyone to say publicly ‘this is the plan’ and A, B and C are now going to happen," he told FT. Some aspect of Ukraine's strategy and operations "will be hidden?.?.?.?some will be dictated by a tactical or operational advantage, and some also depends on more foundational aspects," he added.

Nowhere in the UK defense chief's interview was acknowledgement that these policies could lead to runaway escalation, and an eventual direct confrontation between nuclear-armed powers. The Kremlin has in response vowed that it will take more territory in Ukraine in order to counteract the longer range of NATO missiles.

A surge in restaurant traffic boosted Chipotle Mexican Grill's first-quarter earnings and revenue, topping the average estimate of Wall Street analysts tracked by Bloomberg on Wednesday.

Shares are higher by more than 5% in the cash session on Thursday. However, this note will not expand on earnings. Instead, we will focus on a letter from the company to employees stating: Stop eating chicken during lunch and dinner meals because soaring demand has collided with dwindling poultry supply—and the need to preserve supply urgently. 

Bloomberg obtained the letter Chief Restaurant Officer Scott Boatwright sent employees last week. He told them:

"Due to its sustained strong sales we need your help to keep up with our guests' demand for this popular protein option." 

Boatwright told store managers and hot-side and cold-side kitchen employees not to order chicken or chicken al pastor with their free or discounted employee meals. Even white-collar Chipotle workers were told not to order chicken. 

The message read, "Let's Conserve Our Fan-Favorite Chicken." Execs did not give a timeline for boosting the chicken supply. The letter aimed to "preserve our supply of Adobo Chicken for our guests." 

Chief Corporate Affairs and Food Safety Officer Laurie Schalow told Bloomberg in an emailed statement:

"Due to the high demand for chicken in our restaurants and sustained success of our limited-time offer chicken al pastor, we temporarily asked all of our employees at corporate and in-restaurants to select another protein option for their meals to preserve our supply." 

The Chipotle mobile app shows no disruptions to any protein option on the menu. 

Harper McNamara, an employee in Michigan at the only unionized Chipotle US store, was quoted by Bloomberg as saying the company's move was a slap in the face to its workforce: "It's disrespectful, just on a personal level." 

By Julianne Geiger of OilPrice.com

In a move that could reshape Europe's energy landscape, the European Commission is poised to propose new sanctions targeting Russian liquefied natural gas (LNG) imports.

According to Reuters sources close to the matter, the proposed measures will include a ban on shipments within the EU and sanctions on three Russian LNG projects.

The European Commission's decision comes amid growing concerns over Europe's reliance on Russian energy, particularly in the wake of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. While the EU imposed a ban on Russian seaborne oil imports earlier this year, it has thus far refrained from taking similar action against LNG imports. However, with imports of Russian LNG surging since the start of the war, accounting for around 15% of EU gas supply, pressure has been mounting on Brussels to act.

The proposed ban on trans-shipments within the EU is aimed at preventing the diversion of Russian LNG cargoes to other destinations. Currently, Belgium, France, and Spain are the largest importers of Russian LNG, with many of these imports being re-exported to other countries, including China. By imposing restrictions on trans-shipments, the EU hopes to ensure that Russian LNG does not find its way to markets outside of Europe.

In addition to the ban on trans-shipments, the European Commission is also considering sanctions on three Russian LNG projects - Arctic LNG 2, Ust Luga, and Murmansk. While the details of these sanctions are still being discussed, they are expected to target projects that are not yet operational, further complicating Russia's efforts to expand its LNG exports.

The move by the European Commission reflects growing unease within the EU over its dependence on Russian energy. With tensions between Russia and the West showing no signs of abating, European policymakers are increasingly looking for ways to reduce Europe's exposure to Russian energy supplies. By targeting Russian LNG imports, the EU hopes to send a clear message to Moscow that its actions in Ukraine will not go unpunished.

However, the proposed sanctions are likely to face resistance from some EU member states, particularly those that are heavily reliant on Russian energy. Nevertheless, with pressure mounting on Brussels to take action, it seems increasingly likely that Europe's energy landscape could be in for a significant shake-up in the coming months.

Authored by Irina Slav via OilPrice.com,

European exchange-traded funds with a focus on ESG investing saw a substantial decline in inflows in the first quarter amid what Morningstar called “an existential crisis”.

According to the Financial Times, net inflows into these funds totaled 7.1 billion euros, or $7.62 billion, in the first three months of the year. This was down from 13.8 billion euros in the final three months of 2023, equal to $14.8 billion.

As a result, the portion of ESG fund inflows during the period fell to 16% of total net flows into exchange-traded funds, down from 29% in November to December 2023.

The trend is the latest sign of trouble in energy transition industries as wind, solar, and EV companies struggle with persistently high interest rates, rising raw material costs, and growing competition from low-cost Chinese producers.

“This means further deceleration from the highs of 2022 when close to 65 percent of all flows into the European ETF market were directed to ESG-themed strategies,” Morningstar associate director of passive strategies Jose Garcia-Zarate said.

The news follows a revelation in March that a total of 70% of passive funds passed off as “sustainable” by five of the largest asset managers in the U.S. and Europe were exposed to companies developing new oil and gas projects, according to a report by environmental organization Reclaim Finance.

Reclaim Finance has examined 430 “sustainable” passive funds managed by five of the biggest passive fund managers – Amundi, BlackRock, DWS, Legal & General Investment Management (LGIM), and UBS AM – and found that 70% of the passive funds are exposed to companies developing new fossil fuel projects.

These giant asset managers “are turning a blind eye to the climate impact of their passive investments, with funds invested in oil giants including TotalEnergies, Shell and ExxonMobil, and coal developers such as Glencore and Adani,” Reclaim Finance said in the report.

Poland says it is ready and willing to help Ukraine with its crisis-level manpower and recruitment problems, as it could be poised to round up Ukrainian military-aged males and return them to their home country. Government officials are now strongly signaling just such a controversial plan.

Polish Defense Minister Wladyslaw Kosiniak-Kamysz issued the words Wednesday, largely in response to Ukraine's new law and policy requiring men between 18 and 59 living abroad to get or renew their passport only at offices inside Ukraine. It is designed to prevent them from leaving in the country and thus avoid military service.

"Poland has suggested in the past helping Ukraine so that those who are subject to military service go back to their country to fulfill their civic obligation, Kosiniak-Kamysz told Polsat News television," according to Reuters.

"I think many Poles are outraged when they see young Ukrainian men in hotels and cafes, and they hear how much effort we have to make to help Ukraine," he said, but without specifying what precise steps Warsaw is set to take.

According to more of the Polish defense minister's words:

"The Ukrainian authorities are doing everything to provide new soldiers to the front, because the needs are huge," Kosiniak-Kamysz said.

The Polish official said that Warsaw had previously offered to help Kiev track down those who dodge their "civic duty," but noted that "the form of assistance depends on the Ukrainian side."

Of course, we should note that such a policy of helping get young Ukrainian men 'off the streets' is highly convenient from a Polish perspective, given the historic anti-Ukrainian sentiment among the Polish population. Simply put, the two nationalities tend to hate each other, and Warsaw will now cast its policies pressuring Ukrainians to leave as somehow noble.

Ukraine's foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba wrote earlier this week on X that he had "ordered measures to restore fair attitudes toward men of conscription age in Ukraine and abroad." Kuleba complained, "How it looks now: A man of conscription age went abroad, showed his state that he does not care about its survival, and then comes and wants to receive services from this state."

Russian media has estimated that almost one million Ukrainians have been given temporary sanctuary in Poland, and that a significant but unknown portion of these are likely eligible for conscription.

As the West agree to send billions more to Ukraine, mass mobilisation gets underway as officers staged a mass raid in a cafe in Uzhgorod.

Eyewitnesses filmed mobilisation and police officers leading men out of the cafe who will no doubt be heading to the front shortly. pic.twitter.com/K2o1InhbTa

— Dean O'Brien (@DeanoBeano1) April 24, 2024

Despite Biden's $60 billion for Ukraine's defense having finally been signed into law by the president, the reality remains that Ukraine is fundamentally suffering a severe crisis of manpower. This essentially means that even as US weapons and equipment arrive, there are fewer and fewer troops experienced enough to actually man and operate them.

Via EurasiaNet.org,

• Russia's invasion of Ukraine has reanimated US and EU interest in Central Asia.

• China has eclipsed Russia as the region's largest trade partner.

• Central Asian trade is diversifying away from Russia and towards the West.

The Great Game is playing out once again in Central Asia, but it is getting a new name and adopting a different set of rules. Economics, not politics, is defining the terms of the current superpower competition for regional influence, according to a report prepared by a Kazakh research institute. 

There is a key difference governing the global rivalries in Central Asia in the 19th and 21st centuries: these days, regional states, not outsiders, wield the more influence over potential outcomes, according to the report, titled Pursuing Multi-Vectorism Through Business Diplomacy: The Path for Central Asia. The report was published by the Talap Center for Applied Research. 

“The region, previously the theater of the Great Game in the confrontation of superpowers, is now trying to become an opportunity zone,” the report states.

Russia’s unprovoked attack on Ukraine in 2022, and the imposition of Western sanctions to punish Russian aggression, changed Central Asia’s geopolitical dynamics by reanimating US and European Union interest in the region. By extension, Russia’s actions encouraged the diversification of trade and investment, changing East-West trade patterns connecting China and Europe. Sanctions have diminished the utility of the Northern Corridor via the trans-Siberian railway, while providing impetus for the growth of the Middle Corridor via Central Asia.

These changes have shifted Central Asia’s center of geo-economic gravity. China has eclipsed Russia as the region’s largest trade partner, while the overall trend is toward diversification of trade partners. The West’s share of Central Asian trade under the present dynamic is set to keep rising.

“The trade and investment dynamics in the region show a significant shift of diversification with non-traditional markets of Europe, North America, South Asia, and the Middle East since 2022,” the Talap report notes.

“This has become possible due to a traditional, multi-vector policy for the region, which, under the stress of escalating conflicts, was transformed into a policy of emphatic non-alignment – a firm rejection of any involvement in the conflict.”

The report notes that the contacts between the European Union and Central Asian states have “have gained a special dynamism” since the start of the Russia-Ukraine war.

It also notes that public opinion in the region indicates that a majority of regional residents do not want to get dragged into the confrontation between the West and Russia, which is supported by China. 

The prevailing circumstances have forced Central Asian states to “balance a genuine interest in developing their ties with the Western world while being surrounded by Iran, Afghanistan, China, and Russia, countries with which the West has strained and even tense relations,” the report says.

Maximizing economic multi-vectorism will require some work by Central Asian governments to enhance the predictability of the regional business climate. Vaguely defined trade rules and property rights, along with the unreliability of regional judicial systems, remain big impediments to Western investment. The lack of mechanisms to enforce contracts or resolve corporate disputes also constitutes an investment barrier. In addition to bolstering the independence of the judicial system, the Talap report recommends reforms to regional tax codes to foster more “equitable” business environments. 

“The investment climate in Central Asia reflects a difficult balance between the determination of governments to take advantage of growing interest in the region and the inertia of institutional barriers,” the report states.

“To take advantage of these opportunities, the countries of the region have to address existing institutional and regulatory barriers for both domestic and international companies and investors, strengthen the rule of law, enforce fair and open competition, implement business friendly tax regulations, and align trade, customs and logistical standards.”

The US Air Force's hot pursuit of drone wingmen, known as collaborative combat aircraft, flying alongside piloted stealth fighter jets such as the Lockheed Martin F-35 Lightning II and Lockheed Martin F-22 Raptor, is a major effort to modernize its fleet and advance defensive and offensive capabilities in a world erupting into chaos.  

On Wednesday, the USAF announced that Palmer Luckey's defense tech startup Anduril and General Atomics Aeronautical Systems were selected to build and test wingmen drones for the next phase of the CCA program. This means the pool of competitors has shrunk from five to two, eliminating Boeing, Lockheed Martin, and Northrop Grumman. We don't think the military is ready for 737 Max drones. 

"The companies not selected to build these production representative CCA vehicles, and execute the flight test program, will continue to be part of the broader industry partner vendor pool consisting of more than 20 companies to compete for future efforts, including future production contracts," the service wrote in a press release. 

USAF wants to deploy more than 1,000 wingmen drones that can carry out a wide range of missions, including electronic warfare, intelligence, surveillance, reconnaissance, and dogfighting. 

Commenting on the announcement, Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall said the CCA started "just over two years ago" as part of his "Operational Imperatives, to pursue collaborative combat aircraft."

"The progress we've made is a testament to the invaluable collaboration with industry, whose investment alongside the Air Force has propelled this initiative forward. It's truly encouraging to witness the rapid execution of this program," Kendall said.

General Atomics has pitched the Air Force on its autonomous collaborative drone known as "Gambit." 

While Anduril has submitted a high-performance autonomous air vehicle called "Fury."

"There is no time to waste on business as usual," Anduril chief executive Brian Schimpf said in a release, adding, "With the CCA program, Sec. Kendall and the Air Force have embraced a fast-moving, forward-looking approach to field autonomous systems at speed and scale. ... Anduril is proud to pave the way for other non-traditional defense companies to compete and deliver on large-scale programs."

We've been saying for years that the next major conflict will be fought with hypersonic weapons and drones. And that's precisely the technology being used in Ukraine. 

Luckey's startup, Anduril, aims to cement America's lead in the military technology race, as the bloated military-industrial complex risks blowing the lead. 

"We need a new breed of defense technology companies to reboot the arsenal of democracy," Anduril states on its website.

Submitted by QTR's Fringe Finance

Having used up all of the rest of the batshit, insane, counterintuitive economic dirty tricks left in the "we'll literally do anything but cut spending" bag, the Biden administration is pushing what could be the most destructive idea for our country since prohibition: taxing unrealized gains.

As part of its budget proposal for the 2025 fiscal year, the Biden administration is trying to raise an addition $4.3 trillion over 10 years in the worst way possible: imposing a minimum tax equal to 25 percent of a taxpayer’s taxable income and unrealized capital gains less the sum of their regular tax, for taxpayers with wealth over $100 million.

Putting aside the fact that this high-risk idea only amounts to a pittance, $430 billion per year (25% of which we just sent to foreign nations over the weekend in one fell swoop of a pen and it’s only April), the introduction of taxing unrealized gains could be one of the worst slippery slopes we ever dare to roll our country’s economy down.

I mean, shit, we could save $1 trillion just by not sending $100 billion a year to other nations for starters. But I digress. For an outline of exactly what an unrealized gains tax is, here's the American Institute on Economic Research:

A tax on unrealized capital gains means that individuals are penalized for owning appreciating assets, regardless of whether they have realized any actual income from selling them. 

If you purchased a stock for $100 this year, for example, and it increased to $110 next year, you would pay the assigned tax rate on the $10 capital gain. You didn’t sell the asset, so you don’t realize the $10 appreciation, but must pay the tax regardless.

Taxing unrealized capital gains contradicts the basic principles of fairness and property rights essential for a free and prosperous society. Taxation, if we’re going to have it on income, should be based on actual income earned, not on paper gains that may never materialize.

AIER notes that implementing such a tax not only deeply infringes upon personal liberty and private property rights — but I can’t help but think about how it also sets a destructive wrecking ball rolling down a slippery slope for the first time in our nation's history.

And, given the precarious state of our nation's finances, it doesn't seem like the best time to start spitballing about new risky ideas that may or may not catch on only because they sound like they are addressing the problem of a widening wealth gap that Federal Reserve policies created and continue to exacerbate to begin with.

If the administration really wanted to address the problem of wealth inequality, it would be setting its sights on the central bank that sacrificed price stability so it could spray trillions of dollars in "stimulus" toward financial assets, while cutting American families paltry checks of just $600, during COVID. When I did the math during COVID, the total amount spent to bail out the country when we decided to shut down the economy and have the Federal Reserve replace it with a fiat house of cards amounted to something like $17,500 per every citizen in the United States.

Except, again, only $600 of that went to each individual. The rest went to the financial sector, in turn widening the inequality gap further as billionaires like Mark Zuckerberg, Elon Musk, and Jeff Bezos saw tens of billions of dollars added to their net worth in a matter of months.

And so now, rather than take tangible, decisive action to actually address the problem, the Biden administration is putting forth a plan that won’t just be negative for the country, it could very well be the hill that our country’s economy dies on. And to be honest, I’m not being hyperbolic.

Over the last few years, we have seen an extraordinary exodus from places like New York and California, to places like Florida and Texas, because the former states were essentially taxing far too much relative to the benefits of what they were providing for citizens.

Source: Daily Mail

Ergo, places like California have seen people like Joe Rogan and Elon Musk move to Texas, while states like New York have seen businesses like Ken Griffin's Citadel move to Florida. There’s nothing to read between the lines about when it comes to this capital flight out of one state and into another. It is simple cause and effect: at some point, people simply don’t think it is worth living in these states due to the taxes being too high.

It’s a quintessential example of the Laffer Curve. Tax too much, people are disincentivized to generate productivity, or in this case, live in your state.

Biden's proposal to raise regular capital gains taxes is one thing, albeit still egregious; it is far lesser noxious of the two proposals. Taxing unrealized gains is an exponentially worse type of taxation that introduces not just a higher tax rate and a 3rd type of income tax, but a completely new system for taxation – one that taxes people's assets as they appreciate, not just when they realize the gains of said appreciation.

“But it will only be against people worth more than $100 million,” proponents of the idea will exclaim. Hell, I’m not worth 1% of that, so why should I even care?

First off, it can’t be understated how earth-shattering it is to put this terrible idea into motion, regardless of who it is going to affect. You can’t justify a stunning overreach on people's constitutional rights and civil liberties just because they sit in a certain tax bracket. And it is a line that, once crossed, the government won’t backtrack on. Once taxing unrealized gains makes its way into the zeitgeist, it sticks around for good. And, if it sticks around, it’ll only be another meaningful step moving the U.S. economy closer to an anemic corpse of a state-planned economy.

A tax of this nature creates a vacuum that does nothing but suck the vibrancy out of an economy. In addition to setting a new moral hazard standard, the tax directly targets the people with the most capital at work in our country. By specifically targeting the people that have the means to create new enterprises and invest using this capital, and then driving them out of the country, the tax is a surefire way to suck the lifeblood out of what’s left of the United States economy.

Make no mistake: it will be a clarion call for billionaires to simply move out of the United States and into tax havens. And think about it — these are the people that have the means to up and simply leave the country and relocate anytime they want. For them, if it makes financial sense, they will do it. Implementing this unrealized gains tax will set the ball in motion, you can mark my words. The rich will be as good as gone.

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And when billionaires decide to up and leave the United States, all of the tax revenue they were generating otherwise — not just the unrealized gains tax — leaves with them. In other words, an unrealized gains tax will push them past their limit and result in catastrophic consequences for the country's tax revenue as a whole. It’ll literally do far more harm than good. If I can understand why, a fifth grader can. That means the ultra-rich, who are much smarter than I am, definitely understand it. They’re not going to be interested in hanging around and forking over this much more cash “for the good of the cause”. They already likely have a plan in such case this tax is passed, and — as a hint — it isn’t to happily hand over a check to the Biden administration and say “thanks for being such great stewards of my capital, keep up the good work”.

In reality, it likely involves yachts, dual passports, “investments” in places like Bermuda and Mauritius, attending F1 races and tennis matches, expensive champagne and Eastern European escorts (hereinafter referred to as: “The Hunter Biden Experience”).

But seriously, setting aside the billionaires for a moment, the tax is going to dampen everybody’s incentive to try and earn and invest to begin with. Who wants to invest in the market if they’re going to be taxed on their gains the very next day?

Possibly the worst part of this idea is its timing. The country is running a massive deficit now that looks to continue to widen because of our government's refusal to cut spending on both sides of the aisle. As a reminder, you can only push the tax base so far before they turn tail and run. I know I’ve made jokes in the past (read: yesterday) about our government going through all of the solutions mandatory before arriving at any solution that works in the slightest, but this would be the granddaddy of all examples if implemented.

The timing of this proposed solution couldn’t be worse. We are at a point in our country's fiscal history where we need balance more than ever.

We have the largest deficit and the most debt relative to GDP we have had in recent history.

The BRICS nations, including Russia, China, and India, are actively pursuing ways to break off of the Western banking system and challenge the U.S. dollar.

Inflation is running rampant and high interest rates are more than likely to cause our economy to slow down in marked fashion.

We’re running deficits, but we need the tax revenue we are currently bringing in if we have any hope of cutting spending to balance our budget and right the country's ship economically. The loss of tax revenue as a result of capital flight from the United States responding to this proposed unrealized gains tax would be catastrophic and would accelerate the country's financial and monetary demise, not help it.

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QTR’s Disclaimer: I am an idiot and often get things wrong and lose money. I may own or transact in any names mentioned in this piece at any time without warning. Contributor posts and aggregated posts have not been fact checked and are the opinions of their authors. They are either submitted to QTR, reprinted under a Creative Commons license or with the permission of the author. This is not a recommendation to buy or sell any stocks or securities, just my opinions. I often lose money on positions I trade/invest in. I may add any name mentioned in this article and sell any name mentioned in this piece at any time, without further warning. None of this is a solicitation to buy or sell securities. These positions can change immediately as soon as I publish this, with or without notice. You are on your own. Do not make decisions based on my blog. I exist on the fringe. The publisher does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of the information provided in this page. These are not the opinions of any of my employers, partners, or associates. I did my best to be honest about my disclosures but can’t guarantee I am right; I write these posts after a couple beers sometimes. Also, I just straight up get shit wrong a lot. I mention it twice because it’s that important.

Authored by Joseph M. Hanneman via The Epoch Times (emphasis ours),

A federal judge in Washington D.C. has denied seven motions from a defendant seeking to identify FBI agents in Jan. 6 crowds and gain access to undercover videos shot by Metropolitan Police Department (MPD) officers, at least one of whom incited the crowds at the U.S. Capitol.

In a 22-page order, U.S. District Judge Rudolph Contreras ruled against William Pope on a range of motions filed in his Jan. 6 criminal case since May 2023.

Judge Contreras partially granted a government cross-motion to modify the evidence protective order in the case. “I now have the most restricted discovery access conditions of any Jan 6 defendant,” Mr. Pope wrote on X.

“All I’m asking for is a fair fight in court, but he’s denying me rights to defend myself Pro Se that aren’t denied to attorneys,” Mr. Pope told The Epoch Times in a statement. “Even though some January 6 attorneys have filed highly sensitive materials as public exhibits, or leaked them on social media, I have not released a single sensitive or highly sensitive file governed by the protective order.”

Mr. Pope, 38, publisher of the news website Free State Kansas, was at the Capitol on Jan. 6, covering the protest and subsequent violence.

Federal prosecutors charged him with civil disorder, corruptly obstructing an official proceeding, entering and remaining in a restricted building or grounds, disorderly and disruptive conduct in a restricted building or grounds, impeding ingress or egress in a restricted building or grounds, disorderly conduct in a Capitol building, impeding passage through the Capitol grounds or buildings, and parading, demonstrating, or picketing in a Capitol building.

He faces a July 22 trial.

Sought FBI Agents

Mr. Pope most recently asked the court to compel federal prosecutors to identify all FBI special agents or other employees who were “material witnesses” at the Capitol on Jan. 6 and produce “all photographs, videos, and records related to their presence.”

In that motion, Mr. Pope cited two suspected FBI agents who attended Jan. 6 events at the Capitol with former special agent John Guandolo, who once served as the Bureau’s liaison with U.S. Capitol Police.

Mr. Guandolo “has said in interviews that he was with several active-duty FBI agents on January 6, and that he and those agents have been interviewed by the FBI regarding their observations,” Mr. Pope wrote in his Feb. 12 motion.

One of the men was seen on security video clapping enthusiastically as a large crowd of protesters rushed up the east steps to the Columbus Doors. “Oh, oh, oh man, this is huge,” the man said, heard on Mr. Guandolo’s cell phone video that showed the crowd ascending the steps.

The other suspected agent was seen on Capitol Police security video meeting with an FBI SWAT team shortly after its BearCat tactical vehicle rolled onto the House Plaza at about 2:30 p.m. Twenty minutes later the SWAT team responded to the South Door after the shooting of Air Force veteran Ashli Babbitt by Capitol Police Lt. Michael Byrd.

Federal prosecutors argued they have no obligation to investigate the identity or roles of FBI agents on Jan. 6. The judge concurred.

“The Court agrees with the government and finds that defendant has failed to show that the government has an obligation to produce the requested material,” Judge Contreras wrote.

In another motion denied by Judge Contreras, Mr. Pope sought to compel the U.S. Department of Justice to inventory and provide access to all Capitol Police security video it has had in its possession.

Mr. Pope said footage is missing from some of the 1,800 USCP security cameras, and prosecutors have only produced 6,000 hours of security video in discovery. A U.S. House committee that oversees Capitol Police has released 20,000 hours of an expected 40,000 hours it will post publicly.

Mr. Pope wrote that the importance of the security video—thousands of hours of which are now available on Rumble—is underscored by an investigation suggesting two Capitol police officers perjured themselves in the first Oath Keepers trial in the fall of 2022.

Video obtained by Blaze Media showed that a supposed confrontation between Officer Harry Dunn and the Oath Keepers could not have occurred as he described under oath. Capitol Police Special Agent David Lazarus, who testified that he witnessed the confrontation, was in another part of Capitol grounds at the time.

‘Not Beneficial’

“While Pope asserts that the missing camera footage is ‘highly relevant to January 6 cases, including [his] own,’ … he does not explain what he expects the footage to show or why that footage would assist in his defense,” Judge Contreras wrote. “Much of the camera footage that Pope requests depicts areas where Pope never set foot. That footage is therefore not beneficial to Pope’s case.”

The judge also denied Mr. Pope’s Aug. 21, 2023, motion seeking video shot by more than two dozen members of the MPD Electronic Surveillance Unit on Jan. 6. He first requested access to the Electronic Surveillance Unit videos in March 2023.

The August 2023 motion cites MPD internal affairs investigations of MPD officers Nicholas Tomasula and Lt. Zeb Barcus. Hundreds of pages of documents on Mr. Tomasula were heavily redacted, Mr. Pope said, and “the two reports have led to more questions about misconduct by undercover police.”

Mr. Tomasula was identified as the MPD officer heard on video encouraging protesters on the Northwest Steps to keep going and enter the Capitol. He was heard participating in crowd chants such as, “Whose House? Our House!”

At the foot of the Northwest Steps, as a protester climbed up a makeshift ladder onto the balustrade, Mr. Tomasula shouted: “C’mon, man, let’s go! Leave that [expletive],” his video showed. Mr. Tomasula got help from a protester climbing onto the balustrade, then shouted to protesters moving up the steps, “C’mon, go, go, go!”

Federal prosecutors admitted in 2023 that Mr. Tomasula acted as a provocateur embedded in the crowd on Jan. 6.

Judge Contreras concluded Electronic Surveillance Unit video is only relevant to the extent Mr. Pope can identify an undercover officer whose path he crossed.

“While evidence of undercover officers instigating the riot on January 6 could—hypothetically—be helpful and material to Pope’s case, Pope’s motion ‘never identifies a single individual he interacted with whom he now suspects to be an undercover actor,’” Judge Contreras wrote.

“Pope does not say that he himself spoke with or was induced by any undercover officer,” the judge wrote. “Therefore, he cannot make an entrapment defense with the evidence he seeks from the government, and the material he seeks is irrelevant and immaterial.”

Mr. Pope complained that prosecutors restricted his access to some of the investigative materials, which he described as “highly explosive” and “exculpatory.”

In previous filings, Mr. Pope described several self-identified Antifa supporters who were intercepted by undercover MPD officers on Jan. 6, including one who was carrying a gun.

MPD officers made a traffic stop at 10:15 a.m. on Jan. 6 of a vehicle containing three Antifa operatives: Jonathan Kelly, Logan Grimes, and Dempsey Mikula.

“Undercover officers who stopped their vehicle said they had received reports that the individuals were carrying weapons,” Mr. Pope wrote. “No footage of this incident has been produced by the government in discovery. However, Kelly live-streamed part of the police stop to Facebook.”

Metropolitan Police arrested Mr. Grimes—who identifies as a woman and uses the name Leslie—for carrying a pistol without a license and being in possession of a high-capacity magazine and unregistered ammunition, according to Mr. Pope. The charges were dropped on Jan. 7, 2021.

In a previous filing, Mr. Pope identified undercover MPD officer Ryan Roe, who encountered a still-unidentified protester seen cutting down green plastic temporary fencing on Capitol grounds. Mr. Roe said to #FenceCutterBulwark, “Appreciate it, brother,” according to his video.

A Secret Service agent assigned to protect Vice President Kamala Harris got into a physical altercation with several other agents Monday morning around 9 a.m. near Joint Base Andrews, located near Washington DC.

The agent in question was immediately "removed from their assignment," the Secret Service told the NY Post.

"A US Secret Service special agent supporting the Vice President’s departure from Joint Base Andrews began displaying behavior their colleagues found distressing," said Anthony Guglielmi, chief of communications.

According to CBS News, "the agent spouted gibberish, was speaking incoherently and provoked another officer physically," and "pushed the special agent in charge while they were near the lounge of Joint Base Andrews."

They were immediately handcuffed and detained by other Secret Service agents who intervened, and ambulances were called to the scene. An initial medical evaluation concluded that there was no indication of substance abuse.

The USSS remains in a temporary holding pattern until further information becomes available, the sources said. After the agent receives additional medical attention and further evaluation, it will be determined if they can return to work. An internal review will be conducted and the USSS will assess if the agent's top secret security clearance will be removed for medical or disciplinary reasons, sources explained. -NBC News

Harris was at the Naval Observatory at the time according to the USSS, and the incident had "no impact on her departure from Joint Base Andrews" on the day in question.

According to RealClearPolitics journalist Susan Crabtree, "there are DEI concerns among the USSS community about the hiring of this agent," adding "Other agents and officers within the USSS are asking questions about the agent’s hiring process, whether the USSS did enough to look into the agent’s background and monitor the agent’s mental well-being…"

Other details: Sources say the agent in question was acted erratically upon showing up for a traveling shift at Joint Base Andrews. The agent ended up tackling the Senior Agent in Charge of the VP detail, got on top of him and started punching him. At this point, I'm told, the…

— Susan Crabtree (@susancrabtree) April 24, 2024

After the prior week's almost unprecedented outflows, total money market fund assets rose last week (admittedly by a modest $9.1BN), but remain below the $6TN level ($5.97TN) as tax-season draws roll off...

Source: Bloomberg

The flows into money-market fund assets through April 24 mainly on the back of inflows by institutional investors, which had led the tax-related decline the prior week. Institutions added $8.9 billion in money-market fund exposure.

Source: Bloomberg

In a breakdown for the week to April 24, government funds - which invest primarily in securities like Treasury bills, repurchase agreements and agency debt - saw assets rise to $4.84 trillion, a $3.97 billion increase. 

Prime funds, which tend to invest in higher-risk assets such as commercial paper, meanwhile, saw assets rise to $1.02 trillion, a $3.15 billion increase.

Still, cash is expected to continue piling into money funds as long as the Federal Reserve keeps rates on hold - and this week has seen rate-cut expectations tumble further...

Source: Bloomberg

The Fed balance sheet continued to shrink, falling $32.8BN to its lowest since Jan 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

As The Fed starts discussing tapering QT, usage of The Fed's bank bailout facility (now expired but these are 12 month term loans) continued to decline (though only by a tiny $638MM), basically erasing all the late-period arb-driven inflows, leaving a huge $126BN hole in bank balance sheets still being filled by this...

Source: Bloomberg

This means the 'real' crisis money that banks used to save their souls is yet to really unwind from this bailout fund (and rates are considerably higher now than they were a year ago when the balance sheet holes were stuff with fake Fed paper - i.e. the losses are bigger).

Finally, we note that bank reserves at The Fed plunged last week and while US equity market cap has bounced a little in the last two days, we suspect the trend down (and a painful recoupling) remains a threat...

Source: Bloomberg

While there may be no rate-cuts anytime soon... will The Fed taper QT in a big enough manner to avoid that recoupling?

Authored by Stephen Katte via The Epoch Times,

Dr. Anthony Fauci is locked in to testify before the Select Subcommittee on the Coronavirus Pandemic on June 3, his first public hearing since retiring as the president’s chief medical advisor in 2022.

Subcommittee Chair Brad Wenstrup (R-Ohio) announced in an April 24 press release that Dr. Fauci agreed to appear late last year.

“Retirement from public service does not excuse Dr. Fauci from accountability to the American people,” Mr. Wenstrup said.

“On June 3, Americans will have an opportunity to hear directly from Dr. Fauci about his role in overseeing our nation’s pandemic response, shaping pandemic-era policies, and promoting singular questionable narratives about the origins of COVID-19.”

Dr. Fauci testified in a closed door hearing in January.

According to Mr. Wenstrup, Dr. Fauci has already admitted “to serious systemic failures in our public health system,” which he says deserves “further investigation.”

Mr. Wenstrup says among other revelations, Dr. Fauci has said the six feet apart social distancing guidance, recommended by federal health officials and used to shut down small businesses across the country, “’sort of just appeared,” and was likely not based on scientific data.

During the two-day January hearing, Dr. Fauci revealed he signed off on every foreign and domestic NIAID grant without personally reviewing the proposals.

He also admitted that America’s vaccine mandates, which he promoted, could increase the public’s vaccine hesitancy in the future.

Lab Leak—Not So Far-Fetched

At the same time, Dr. Fauci said the lab leak hypothesis around COVID-19’s origins might not be a conspiracy theory, despite his previous very public assertions that it was.

The lab leak theory claims that SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes COVID-19, was developed at the Wuhan Institute of Virology (WIV) and was accidentally leaked. In the years since COVID first appeared, this hypothesis has been gaining steam, with even the former head of the Chinese Center for Disease Control and Prevention (China CDC) saying it can’t be ruled out as an option.

Mr. Wenstrup claimed that during the previous hearing, Dr. Fauci said he “did not recall” specific COVID-19 information and conversations relevant to the Select Subcommittee’s investigations over 100 times.

A full transcript is expected to be released before the public hearing in June.

Mr. Wenstrup believes the testimony shared so far “raises significant concerns about public health officials and the validity of their policy recommendations during the COVID-19 pandemic.”

“We also learned that he believes the lab leak hypothesis he publicly downplayed should not be dismissed as a conspiracy theory,” he said.

“As the face of America’s public health response to the COVID-19 pandemic, these statements raise serious questions that warrant public scrutiny,” Mr. Wenstrup added.

Following Dr. Fauci’s hearing, the select subcommittee will also hold a public hearing with EcoHealth Alliance president Dr. Peter Daszak on May 1.

Mr. Wenstrup said it “will serve as a crucial component of our investigation into the origins of COVID-19 and provide essential background ahead of Dr. Fauci’s public hearing.”

“We look forward to both Dr. Fauci’s and Dr. Daszak’s forthcoming and honest testimonies, and appreciate their willingness to voluntarily appear before the Select Subcommittee for public hearings.”

Authored by Peter C. Earle via The American Institute for Economic Research,

Zimbabwe’s historical relationship with money has been inundated with mistakes, recklessness, and hardship. During the peak of its 2008 hyperinflation, the nation experienced a catastrophic economic downturn, characterized by the issuance of billion- and trillion-dollar banknotes that were, despite their nominal enormity, virtually worthless. Recent economic challenges have revived painful memories of that era with the resurgence of inflation (currently at 55 percent), a return to the US dollar, euro, and South African Rand as de facto currencies, and the necessity of using large physical stacks of bills to purchase basic commodities like bread and eggs.

On April 5, a new currency was announced.

Later this month, the ZiG (Zimbabwe Gold) will replace the current monetary unit, the Zimbabwean Real Time Gross Settlement dollar (RTGS). The ZiG marks a sixth attempt by the Zimbabwean government and central bank to introduce a currency unit that sets its monetary house in order. 

Upon declaring independence in 1980, the Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe (RBZ) issued the original Zimbabwe dollar (ZWD) to replace the Rhodesian dollar at par (1:1). Over the subsequent two decades, the money supply expanded amid fiscal mismanagement, policy errors, and authoritarian governance. Denominations of the ZWD grew from two, five, and 10 ZWD denominations into bills marking hundreds, thousands, and millions of units, each with precipitously dissipating purchasing power. 

In August 2006, the first attempt to reform the original ZWD was undertaken.

The RBZ recalled outstanding currency notes, replacing them with redenominated notes of one one-thousandth the value of the previous notes by slashing three decimal places.

Roughly two years later, in August 2008, a second redenomination marked the third ZWD reissue, this time slashing ten decimal places.

By this point, prices were at least doubling on a daily basis. Thus did each ten billion ZWD note become one ZWD to address the increasingly unwieldy terms of face-to-face market transactions. The apex of the hyperinflation was reached with the issue of the 100 trillion ZWD banknote, after which in February 2009 — barely six months later the previous redenomination — twelve zeros had to be removed from currency units. This was the fourth ZWD issue. By this point, the 1980 ZWD had been whittled down to one-sextillionth (0.000000000000000000001) of its initial value. Errors in simple transactions became commonplace, with both calculators and computers unable to handle fundamental accounting operations. Agriculture, a difficult commercial undertaking even with a stable currency, is all the more challenging when consummated in units usually reserved for astronomers.

By the end of 2008, 28 years of inflation topped a total 231 million percent.

The ZWD was demonetized in 2009, with the Euro, the South African Rand, and the US dollar as well as smaller, regional currencies supplanting it.

In 2015, that process was completed, with every 35 quadrillion ZWD presented at a bank being retired for a single US dollar.

Alongside a wide array of currencies in use throughout the next few years were Zimbabwean government bond notes.

In 2019, the Real Time Gross Settlement (RTGS) dollar was issued, but quickly ran into trouble — even before the COVID pandemic broke out. Inflation followed yet again, and the use of international currencies — which had been outlawed upon the introduction of the RTGS — was again legalized. When issued, the RTGS was set at an official exchange rate of 2.5 per US dollar. Since the start of 2024, though, it has lost 80 percent of its value, recently trading at 30,671 per US dollar. At this rate of inflation, an item that cost $100 US dollars in 1980 would have cost over $700 billion dollars by 2023. 

USD-ZIM/RTGS exchange rate (2022 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

On April 30, 2024, RTGS units will be exchangeable for ZiG as the new coins and bills begin circulating. RBZ Governor John Mushayavanhu has announced the initial exchange rate for the ZiG at 13.56 per US dollar, with subsequent rates to be determined through interbank markets. Hopes for the success of the ZiG are underpinned by a reputed $185 million worth of gold and other reserves backing it. There are practical hurdles, though.

The sustainability of a gold-backed currency like ZiG is uncertain considering the limited extent of Zimbabwe’s physical gold reserves relative to the desired exchange rate. Moreover, the absence of concurrent measures from its trading partners leaves the new currency susceptible to fluctuations in gold prices. Black markets, which speak truth to a fault, are registering doubt.

And investors in the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange in Harare have made no secret whatsoever about their cynicism, sending stock prices down 99 percent in several hours after the ZiG announcement.

Zimbabwe Stock Exchange (Jan 2024 – present)

(Source: Bloomberg Finance, LP)

Zimbabwe still relies upon printing money to finance its budget deficits. Although Mushayavanhu has adamantly pledged to avoid this practice, at the onset the ZiG faces an uphill battle to claim public trust, given nearly a half century of monetary disasters. Moreover, the government’s insistence on accepting payments for certain services exclusively in US dollars, such as road toll fees and passport processing, is undermining confidence in the new money even before it begins changing hands.

Reports indicating that the government will require tax payments in mixed currency are further dimming prospects for the ZiG’s acceptance and viability.

The Zimbabwean government has, in addition, associated the latest monetary project with the global dedollarization movement. While there remains a possibility for the ZiG to outperform its predecessors, the country’s tumultuous economic history, transitioning from hyperinflation to hyper-dollarization and currently grappling with double-digit inflation and interest rates, underscores deep-rooted issues beyond mere monetary policy, including governance deficiencies and corruption risks. Ruinous policies which have destroyed the productiveness of the nation’s economy, as well as the classic blame-mongering of businesses for the rising general price level (something Americans have borne witness to recently as well) have been commonplace. Without comprehensive fundamental reforms addressing these systemic challenges, Zimbabwe risks perpetuating its reliance on emigration as a coping mechanism alongside the enduring symbol of its economic turmoil, the multi trillion-dollar banknote. The efficacy of any monetary system, whether a commodity standard or any other, hinges singularly upon the integrity and competence of its custodians.

Dissipated Zimbabwean cash is thumbtacked to many a bulletin board, and fetches many more US dollars in exchange on eBay than it ever did in its circulatory prime. The trinketization of that money, however, has come at great human cost. According to the US Agency for International Development, a staggering 63 percent of Zimbabwean households endure poverty, with one in eight experiencing extreme deprivation. That juxtaposes with the nation’s abundant mineral resources, spanning over 40 distinct minerals: platinum group metals, gold, coal, lithium, and diamonds among others. Despite that potential wealth, the realization of economic advancement remains contingent upon substantive political reforms. 

Even the most faithfully implemented commodity-backed money standard is fundamentally predicated on the integrity and competence of its overseers. Successive waves of spectacular currency destruction speak to a deeper illness in economic and political institutions, strongly alluding to systemic vulnerabilities. One hopes, for the sake of the long-suffering citizens of Zimbabwe, that this time around the result of yet another monetary reconstitution is successful, fostering a stable general price level, a reliable monetary unit for saving and spending, and enhanced possibilities for economic calculation. Without fundamental changes guaranteeing private property protection, pro-market reforms, and safeguards against corruption, though, the ZiG is likely to retrace the unfortunate steps of its predecessors.

Baltimore City filed a lawsuit against the owner and operator of the container ship that crashed into the Francis Scott Key Bridge last month, causing it to collapse. 

Attorneys for Baltimore's mayor and City Council claim the bridge collapse was caused by "negligence of the vessel's crew and shoreside management," according to the Washington Post. 

In the early morning hours of March 26, the Dali, a 213-million-pound container ship owned by Grace Ocean Private Limited and managed by Synergy Marine PTE LTD., lost power and slammed into one of the main pillars of the 1.6-mile long Key Bridge, instantly crumpling the bridge and blocking the only shipping channel in and out of the Port of Baltimore. 

"The Dali slammed into the bridge, causing the bridge's immediate collapse, killing at least six individuals, destroying Baltimore property, and bringing the region's primary economic engine to a grinding halt," the city said in court filings. 

"None of this should have happened," the attorneys said, adding, "Reporting has indicated that, even before leaving port, alarms showing an inconsistent power supply on the Dali had sounded. The Dali left port anyway, despite its clearly unseaworthy condition."

Earlier this month, Grace Ocean and Synergy Marine submitted a request in federal court to cap their potential liability at $43.6 million. Baltimore on Monday requested that the court dismiss the companies' petition to limit liability.

The court filing also called the crew of the Dali "incompetent" and lacked proper skill or training, adding they were "inattentive to their duties" and "failed to comply with local navigation customs."

The source of the "inconsistent power supply" has yet to be identified, and the Federal Bureau of Investigation and the US Coast Guard have launched a criminal investigation into the crash. 

Meanwhile, the city of Baltimore failed to install fender systems to prevent ships from crashing into the bridge. These fenders could have prevented the collapse. 

Why did the city, county, or whoever manages the bridge fail to install fender systems? Were progressive lawmakers in the city and state too distracted with their socialist agenda to focus on upgrading critical infrastructure? 

By Michael Every of Rabobank

The Golden Path

USD/JPY is at 155, a fresh 34-year high, with the Yen slumping 10.2% year-to-date and suggestion that intervention may not come until we get to 160, a level last seen in 1986. USD/CAD is off recent lows at 1.37 but under pressure (as noted by Christian Lawrence): some suggest the Loonie could fall as far as 2 (so CAD/USD at 0.5) a decade from now. So, a higher US dollar. Which FX dominoes haven’t fallen yet, and when might they?

Australian CPI data suggest it will be hard to cut rates in 2024, as the median Sydney house price moves up to A$1.6m with them at 4.35%. Mexican CPI surprised to the upside, also suggesting further rate cuts may not roll out as had been priced in. Bank Indonesia shocked markets with a 25bp rate hike to 6.25% to try to relieve downwards pressure on IDR. So, what looks like higher rates for longer than had been expected. What breaks where, and when?

Geopolitical tensions will also be higher for longer. Europe made a dawn raid on a Chinese firm as Politico says: ‘EU to China: Open your public markets or we’ll close ours’. US Secretary of State Blinken is in Beijing against headlines warning of US sanctions on Chinese banks for helping Russia. President Biden signed the TikTok divest-or-ban bill, which Bloomberg warns will see China target US firms in kind. US military aid is already flowing to Taiwan, Ukraine, and Israel: the US is planning to convert old Pacific oil platforms to military bases; Ukraine was striking Russian energy targets even before it got access to new, longer-range US missiles; and Israel is closer to moving against Hamas in Rafah and Hezbollah in Lebanon, if not Iran (for now). The New Statesman echoes warnings made here since the mid-2010s: ‘The age of danger: order is breaking down as the great powers take sides in multiple wars’.

Economic policy also continues to get more populist: although it has no chance of happening, President Biden has proposed a 44.6% capital gains tax, the highest in US history, and a 25% tax on unrealized gains by high net-worth individuals. More realistic, perhaps, France’s opposition has proposed financing the country’s green transition with entirely with QE.

Let’s be frank, it’s hard to see a ‘Golden Path’ for markets ahead. It’s even harder to see ‘The Golden Path’ - a global economic system that allows maximum market/personal freedoms, yet with minimal inequality both domestically and internationally, and so socioeconomic and geopolitical stability. Yet absent that Path, we end up Hamiltonianism or mercantilism, economic war, real war, and a Great-Power-struggle ‘age of danger’.

Bloomberg just made reference to this (‘Geostrategy Industrial Complex Is a Win-Win’) vis-à-vis the real economy, noting corporate and foreign policy elites are talking more to each other, “which is good for both sides”. Yet financial markets continue to ignore foreign policy elites! Where are the macro forecasts adjusted for a world of Great Power struggles? Most still look remarkably similar to ones without that backdrop. (By contrast, note our ‘geopolitical’ work on Europe’s growth and inflation.) Where are the FX, rates, equity, credit, commodity, and property scenarios for a world of Great Power struggles? Again, most still look remarkably similar to ones without that backdrop – correct me if I am wrong, but it seems only our Fed watcher Philip Marey is predicting Trump tariffs would be a roadblock to ongoing Fed cuts in 2025.

Let’s be Frank Herbert.

Bloomberg also praises Hollywood’s ‘Dune 2’ for predicting the future better than Fukuyama for its old-and-new high-tech, feuding Great Houses struggling for control of the Spice without which the economy can’t function, as religion sweeps people to violent jihad. That comparison is true, but there is a deeper parallel to our present situation. Those who have read the Dune series repeatedly know all that backdrop supports two central overarching themes:

• First: “Don’t follow charismatic leaders.” Paul Atreides is no hero: he is directly responsible for the deaths of 61 billion people.

• Second: “The Golden Path.” Paul doesn’t have the stomach to follow through on what he needs to do for mankind, but his son, Leto II, does. **SPOILER ALERT** He fuses himself with a sandworm to become a dictator for 3,500 years, destroying Spice, space travel, and the economy, to teach people “a lesson they will remember in their bones”: that once they can break free of his reign, which he eventually allows, they should become as diverse and far-flung as possible to never allow anyone or anything to threaten them in their entirety again.

The conflict between humanity's stated desire for peace and their actual need for volatility is the central message of the Dune series.

We built a centralised neoliberal global system that repressed volatility as QE Spice flowed. But while Great Houses thrived, and some got very rich selling shadow-bank Spice derivatives, that system only increased, not decreased, our fundamental vulnerabilities to key threats. Returning to a world of Great Power struggles may ironically create healthier economic systems and societies over time, in some respects.

True, that likely won’t allow such free markets. But while we need some volatility to get stronger --think of Taleb’s anti-fragility-- we don’t need other kinds, like a sandworm swallowing us whole (or the financial market equivalent as past vol-repression has to be unwound), or people launching jihads at home or abroad. Which there is rather too much of right now.

So, Trump fusing with a sandworm may teach us all a geopolitical lesson “in our bones”: does his orange skin reflect excess McMelange consumption even if his eyes aren’t blue-in-blue?

Back to markets: the God Emperor of Dune, Leto II, maintains a complete monopoly on melange, the real currency in the universe; but apart from that, the books don’t say much about rates or FX. I’m just not sure what the Golden Level of rates is on our Golden Path. Then again, neither do central banks. And financial markets mostly have their heads deep in the sand.

Seizing assets? Two can play at that game...

Just days after Washington voted to authorize the REPO Act - paving the way for the Biden administration confiscate billions in Russian sovereign assets which sit in US banks - it appears Moscow has a plan of its own (let's call it the REVERSE REPO Act) as a Russian court has ordered the seizure of $440 million from JPMorgan.

The seizure order follows from Kremlin-run lender VTB launching legal action against the largest US bank to recoup money stuck under Washington’s sanctions regime.

As The FT reports, the order, published in the Russian court register on Wednesday, targets funds in JPMorgan’s accounts and shares in its Russian subsidiaries, according to the ruling issued by the arbitration court in St Petersburg.

The assets had been frozen by authorities in the wake of the western sanctions, and highlights some of the fallout western companies are feeling from the punitive measures against Moscow.

Specifically, The FT notes that the dispute centers on $439mn in funds that VTB held in a JPMorgan account in the US.

When Washington imposed sanctions on the Kremlin-run bank, JPMorgan had to move the funds to a separate escrow account. Under the US sanctions regime, neither VTB nor JPMorgan can access the funds.

In response, VTB last week filed a lawsuit against the New York-based group to get Russian authorities to freeze the equivalent amount in Russia, warning that JPMorgan was seeking to leave Russia and would refuse to pay any compensation.

The following day, JPMorgan filed its own lawsuit against the Russian lender in a US court to prevent a seizure of its assets, arguing that it had no way to reclaim VTB’s stranded US funds to compensate its own potential losses from the Russian lawsuit.

Yesterday's decision sided with VTB, ordering the seizure of funds in JPMorgan’s Russian accounts and “movable and immovable property,” including its stake of a Russian subsidiary.

JPMorgan said it faced "certain and irreparable harm" from VTB’s efforts, exposed to a nearly half-billion-dollar loss, for merely abiding by U.S. sanctions.

The order was the latest example of American banks getting caught between the demands of Western sanctions regimes and overseas interests. Last summer, a Russian court froze about $36mn worth of assets owned by Goldman following a lawsuit by state-owned bank Otkritie. A few months later the court ruled that the Wall Street investment bank had to pay the funds to Otkritie.

The tit-for-tat continues.

In the real world labor market, 2024 has been a shitshow of layoffs...

1. Everybuddy: 100% of workforce
2. Wisense: 100% of workforce
3. CodeSee: 100% of workforce
4. Twig: 100% of workforce
5. Twitch: 35% of workforce
6. Roomba: 31% of workforce
7. Bumble: 30% of workforce
8. Farfetch: 25% of workforce
9. Away: 25% of workforce
10. Hasbro: 20% of workforce
11. LA Times: 20% of workforce
12. Wint Wealth: 20% of workforce
13. Finder: 17% of workforce
14. Spotify: 17% of workforce
15. Buzzfeed: 16% of workforce
16. Levi's: 15% of workforce
17. Xerox: 15% of workforce
18. Qualtrics: 14% of workforce
19. Wayfair: 13% of workforce
20. Duolingo: 10% of workforce
21. Rivian: 10% of workforce
22. Washington Post: 10% of workforce
23. Snap: 10% of workforce
24. eBay: 9% of workforce
25. Sony Interactive: 8% of workforce
26. Expedia: 8% of workforce
27. Business Insider: 8% of workforce
28. Instacart: 7% of workforce
29. Paypal: 7% of workforce
30. Okta: 7% of workforce
31. Charles Schwab: 6% of workforce
32. Docusign: 6% of workforce
33. Riskified: 6% of workforce
34. EA: 5% of workforce
35. Motional: 5% of workforce
36. Mozilla: 5% of workforce
37. Vacasa: 5% of workforce
38. CISCO: 5% of workforce
39. UPS: 2% of workforce
40. Nike: 2% of workforce
41. Blackrock: 3% of workforce
42. Paramount: 3% of workforce
43. Citigroup: 20,000 employees
44. ThyssenKrupp: 5,000 employees
45. Best Buy: 3,500 employees
46. Barry Callebaut: 2,500 employees
47. Outback Steakhouse: 1,000
48. Northrop Grumman: 1,000 employees
49. Pixar: 1,300 employees
50. Perrigo: 500 employees
51. Tesla: 10% of workforce

But, according to the government-supplied data...

The number of Americans filing for jobless benefits for the first time last week dropped to just 207k (SA), below the 215k expectation, and back near YTD lows.

Source: Bloomberg

Continuing Claims also improved (though still a little elevated) falling back below 1.8mm (1.781mm to be exact) - near the lowest of the year...

Source: Bloomberg

But, here's the thing... WARNs are soaring... and Challenger-Grey just announced that March saw the most job cuts (90,309) since January 2023...but government-supplied data on initial jobless claims continues to smoothly tick along near record lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Ah, Bidenomics!!

If Trump wins in November, will all this data suddenly be 'allowed' to reflect reality?

"There are certainly some big risks that humanity faces. Population collapse is a really big deal, but I wish more people would think about...the birth rate is far below what's needed to sustain civilization at its current level," Elon Musk explained in a recent interview posted on X.  

Elon Musk: "There are certainly some big risks that humanity faces. Population collapse is a really big deal, but I wish more people would think about...the birth rate is far below what's needed to sustain civilization at its current level. We need to take action on climate… pic.twitter.com/GDoSfVJr1H

— Camus (@newstart_2024) April 16, 2024

Musk wrote in a post on X early last week, "Any nation with a birth rate below replacement will eventually cease to exist." 

Any nation with a birth rate below replacement will eventually cease to exist

— Elon Musk (@elonmusk) April 15, 2024

This leaves us with a new report from the US National Center for Health Statistics showing US births continued a multi-decade slide to levels not seen in more than four decades. 

There were 3.59 million babies born in 2023, down 2% from 3.66 million recorded in 2022. This number is the lowest since 1979, when 3.4 million babies were born. 

"People are making rather reasoned decisions about whether or not to have a child at all," Karen Benjamin Guzzo, director of the Carolina Population Center at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill, said, who was quoted by The Wall Street Journal. 

Guzzo continued, "More often than not, I think what they're deciding is, 'Yes, I'd like to have children, but not yet.'"

America's declining total fertility rate peaked at 3.75 births per woman after World War II and has since collapsed to about 1.617, well below the replacement rate of 2.1. 

A nation without children is a nation without a future. The intersection of deaths exceeding births per year appears imminent. 

US birth rates for most age groups are all declining, except for women ages 35-39 and 40-44. 

Only the Hispanic fertility rate has rebounded. 

With the total birth rate well under the level of replacement since 2007, it should now make sense (read here) why the Biden administration has facilitated the greatest illegal alien invasion this nation has ever seen. 

Whatever happened to the WEF?  One minute they were everywhere in the media and now they have all but disappeared from public discourse.  After the pandemic agenda was defeated and the plan to exploit public fear to create a perpetual medical autocracy was exposed, Klaus Schwab and his merry band of globalists slithered back into the woodwork.  To be sure, we'll be seeing them again one day, but for now the WEF has relegated itself away from the spotlight and into the dark recesses of the Davos echo chamber. 

Much of their discussions now focus on issues like climate change or DEI (Diversity, Equity, Inclusion), but one vital subject continues to pop up in the white papers of global think tanks and it's a program that was introduced very publicly during covid.  Every person that cares about economic freedom should be wary of Central Bank Digital Currencies (CBDCs) as perhaps the biggest threat to human liberty since the attempted introduction of vaccine passports.

The WEF recently boasted in a new white paper that 98% of all central banks are now pursuing CBDC programs.  The report, titled 'Modernizing Financial Markets With Wholesale Central Bank Digital Currency', notes:

“CeBM is ideal for systemically important transactions despite the emergence of alternative payment instruments...Wholesale central bank digital currency (wCBDC) is a form of CeBM that could unlock new economic models and integration points that are not possible today.”

The paper primarily focuses on the streamlining of crossborder transactions, an effort which the Bank for International Settlements (BIS) has been deeply involved in for the past few years.  It also highlights an odd concept of differentiated CBDC mechanisms, each one specifically designed to be used by different institutions for different reasons.  Wholesale CBDCs would be used only by banking institutions, governments and some global corporations, as opposed to Retail CBDCs which would be reserved for the regular population.

How the value and buying power of Wholesale CBDCs would differ is not clear, but it's easy to guess that these devices would give banking institutions a greater ability homogenize international currencies and transactions.  In other words, it's the path to an eventual global currency model.  By extension, the adoption of CBDCs by governments and global banks will ultimately lead to what the WEF calls "dematerialization" - The removal of physical securities and money.  The WEF states:

"As with the Bank of England’s (BOE) RTGS modernization programme, the intention is to introduce a fully digitized securities system that is future-proofed for incremental adoption of DLT (Distributed Ledger Technology). The tokenization of assets involves creating digital tokens representing underlying assets like real estate, equities, digital art, intellectual property and even cash. Tokenization is a key use case for blockchain, with some estimates pointing towards $4-5 trillion in tokenized securities on DLTa  by 2030." 

Finally, they let the cat out of the bag:

"The BIS proposed two models for bringing tokenization into the monetary system: 1) Bring CBDCs, DTs and tokenized assets on to a common unified ledger, and 2) pursue incremental progress by creating interlinking systems.

They determined the latter option was more feasible given that the former requires a reimagination of financial systems. Experimentation with the unified ledger concept is ongoing."

To interpret this into decoded language - The unified ledger is essentially another term for a one world digital currency system completely centralized and under the control of global banks like the BIS and IMF.  The WEF and BIS are acknowledging the difficulty of introducing such a system without opposition, so, they are recommending incremental introduction using "interlinking systems" (attaching CBDCs to paper currencies and physical contracts and then slowly but surely dematerializing those assets and making digital the new norm).  It's the totalitarian tip-toe.   

The BIS predicts there will be at least 9 major CBDCs in circulation by the year 2030; this is likely an understatement of the intended plan.  Globalists have hinted in the past that they prefer total digitization by 2030.

A cashless society would be the end game for economic anonymity and freedom in trade.  Unless alternative physical currencies are widely adopted in protest, CBDCs would make all transactions traceable and easily interrupted by governments and banks.  Imagine a world in which all trade is monitored, all revenues are monitored and transactions can be blocked if they are found to offend the mandates of the system.  Yes, these things do happen today, but with physical cash they can be circumvented. 

Imagine a world where your ability to spend money can be limited to certain retailers, certain services, certain products and chosen regions based on your politics, your social credit score and your background.  The control that comes with CBDCs is immense and allows for complete micromanagement of the population.  The fact that 98% of central banks are already adopting this technology should be one of the biggest news stories of the decade, yet, it goes almost completely ignored.   

German Chancellor Olaf Scholz is quite upset, after Vladimir Putin quoted German philosopher Immanuel Kant - who the Russian president called "one of the greatest thinkers of both his time and ours," and said that the philosopher's call "to live by one's own wits" is relevant today.

"A country must live by its own wits… This does not mean that we do not care about the interests of others... but we will never allow Russia’s interests to be neglected. In some countries, among our neighbors, this thesis has been forgotten. Many live by someone else’s wits. This will not bring them any good," Putin told a group of college students in Kaliningrad - where Kant was born in 1724 (previously known as Königsberg, which belonged to the Kingdom of Prussia before becoming part of the Russian empire).

According to Scholz, "Putin doesn’t have the slightest right to quote Kant, yet Putin’s regime remains committed to poaching Kant and his work at almost any cost," he told an audience at the Berlin-Brandenburg Academy of Sciences, Die Zeit reports.

According to Scholz, the Russian invasion of Ukraine is not in alignment with Kant's teachings - noting that the philosopher spoke of the interference of states in the affairs of other nations. He also defended Ukraine's decision not to enter into peace talks with Moscow, and that 'forced treaties' could not achieve 'perpetual peace' - something Kant spoke of.

Putin has praised Kant over the years - suggesting in 2013 that he should be made an official symbol of the Kaliningrad Region.

Kaliningrad administrators hit back at Scholz' comments - saying in a Tuesday statement that nobody has done more than Russia to "perpetuate the memory of the great philosopher and his teachings," adding "Immanuel Kant died as a subject of the Russian crown. It seems to me that this, more than any words of all possible German politicians, shows the position of the great philosopher regarding Russia."

Kant was born in 1724 and died in 1804, and spent his entire life in Königsberg. During his later years, specifically from 1758 until his death, Königsberg and the entirety of East Prussia temporarily came under Russian control due to the events of the Seven Years' War (1756-1763). Although Prussia regained control over Königsberg after the war, Kant's status during those specific years was technically as a subject of the Russian Empire.

Authored by Steve Watson via Modernity.news,

A government funded LGBT activist group that is active in more than half of Scotland’s schools has called puberty blocking drugs, which effectively sterilise children, “wonderful.”

LGBT Youth Scotland, which is registered as a charity, has also declared that children should have the “autonomy” to decide whether to take puberty blockers without the views of their parents interfering.

The group, which receives almost £1 million per year in taxpayer funding, issued a statement in opposition to a decision to suspend the prescription of the drugs to children by the country’s gender reassignment centre, Sandyford Clinic in Glasgow.

The Telegraph reports that LGBT Youth Scotland’s Trans Rights Youth Commission declared “We would like to be clear about the wonderful impacts that accessing gender affirming care can have,” adding “Gender affirming care is about our right to do what we want with our own body. It is freedom. We deeply urge Sandyford to reconsider this decision.”

Yesterday, @JennyGilruth defended the presence of this rogue charity in Scottish schools. They have repaid her by calling puberty blockers 'wonderful' &, disturbingly, calling for “bodily autonomy” for young children.

They are a safeguarding nightmare. https://t.co/Fadx7V5FUF

— For Women Scotland (@ForWomenScot) April 24, 2024

The comments come in the wake of a major long term study in the UK that concluded that treatment gender-confused children have been offered was built entirely on “shaky foundations” and that there is “no good evidence to support the global clinical practice of prescribing hormones to under-18s to pause puberty or transition to the opposite sex.”

The review also noted possible risks such as infertility and damage to brain function and growth.

The author of the review, retired consultant paediatrician Dr Cass, formerly the president of the Royal College of Paediatrics, called the evidence for life altering drugs “remarkably weak” and warned that transgender activists are the ones “deliberately spread(ing) misinformation.”

Since the review was published, Cass has been subject to abuse and cannot use public transport over fears for her safety.

Gender report author cannot travel on public transport over safety fears

Full story ??https://t.co/FpfxdP3FX4

— Sky News (@SkyNews) April 20, 2024

As we highlighted last week, LGBT Youth Scotland is also encouraging teachers in Scottish schools not to communicate with parents if their children express a desire to ‘transition’ to a different gender.

It was also revealed earlier last week that schools signed up to the LGBT Youth Scotland charter scheme are appointing children as “LGBT champions” and being encouraged to question pupils about their sexual orientation and gender.

Scottish primary schools appoint children as young as FOUR as 'LGBT Champions' https://t.co/tXLhur4fSi

— GB News (@GBNEWS) April 18, 2024

Earlier this week, Scotland’s education secretary Jenny Gilruth, defended the group as helping to create “inclusive” environments, and said that it is up to schools whether they sign up for the charter scheme.

Jenny Gilruth refused to answer whether LGBT Youth Scotland, whose remit is young people between 13 and 25, was working in primary schools with kids as young as 2. But we know it is. So why is the Scottish Government trying to keep it secret? https://t.co/aUhp7RkFGc pic.twitter.com/LcLU6xb0Bq

— Wings Over Scotland (@WingsScotland) April 24, 2024

Scottish Conservative deputy leader Meghan Gallacher hit back noting that parents have been “outraged” by “cult like” materials distributed by LGBT Youth Scotland, and pointing to an account of one parent who claimed her daughter had been “radicalised” by trans ideology after her school became involved with the group.

'My daughter was ‘radicalised’ by Scottish LGBT club in school'

Read the full story below ?? https://t.co/y7MG7U2c3n

— The Telegraph (@Telegraph) April 19, 2024

The account notes that the child’s decision to begin identifying as male was kept from the parents by the school, but that the girl soon reverted after being sent to a private school in England.

Gallacher urged that “LGBT Youth Scotland’s ideological and dogmatic response to the Cass review sums up why many are extremely concerned about their continued influence on kids in our schools.”

On top of all this, LGBT Youth Scotland was recently embroiled in a scandal with one of its employees under investigation for alleged grooming and child sex abuse:

Scottish Government-funded LGBT charity worker suspended after sex abuse claimshttps://t.co/6de5hDJOy6

— Scottish Express (@ScotExpress) January 28, 2023

1./ A charity that sheltered leading figures in the biggest and most appalling paedophile scandal in Scottish criminal history are now invited into primary schools to ask kids if they are gay or trans. Just another average day in SNP(aedo) Scotland. ??https://t.co/g8j3eL9g6A

— Malcolm Clark (@TwisterFilm) April 18, 2024

We have previously highlighted how radical lobbyist trans activist groups such as Stonewall are injecting LGBTQ+ propaganda into teaching, and even recruiting ‘activist’ teachers to ignore government guidance that has essentially said schools do not have to adopt ‘gender identity ideology’ or recognise ‘social transitions’ among pupils.

These groups masquerading as charities are siphoning taxpayer money to fund their extreme operations, which are directly targeting children.

*  *  *

Your support is crucial in helping us defeat mass censorship. Please consider donating via Locals or check out our unique merch. Follow us on X @ModernityNews.

In 2011, Bhutan sponsored a UN resolution that invited governments to prioritize happiness and well-being as a way to measure social and economic development.

And thus, the World Happiness Report was born.

In 2012, the first report released, examining Gallup poll data from 2006–2010 that asked respondents in nearly every country to evaluate their life on a 0–10 scale. From this they extrapolated a single “happiness score” out of 10 to compare how happy countries are.

More than a decade later, the 2024 World Happiness Report continues the mission to quantify, measure, and compare well-being. Its latest findings also include how countries have become happier in the intervening years.

Visual Capitalist's Pallavi Rao visualizes these findings in the chart below, which shows the 20 countries that have seen their happiness scores grow the most since 2010.

Which Countries Have Become Happier Since 2010?

Serbia leads a list of 12 Eastern European nations whose average happiness score has improved more than 20% in the last decade.

In the same time period, the Serbian economy has doubled to $80 billion, and its per capita GDP has nearly doubled to $9,538 in current dollar terms.

Since the first report, Western Europe has on average been happier than Eastern Europe. But as seen with these happiness gains, Eastern Europe is now seeing their happiness levels converge closer to their Western counterparts. In fact, when looking at those under the age of 30, the most recent happiness scores are nearly the same across the continent.

All in all, 20 countries have increased their happiness score by a full point or more since 2010, on the 0–10 scale.

Authored by Brandon Smith via Alt-Market.us,

In October of 2023 in my article ‘It’s A Trap! The Wave Of Repercussions As The Middle East Fights “The Last War”’ I predicted that a multi-front war was about to develop between Israel and various Muslim nations including Lebanon and Iran. I noted:

“Israel is going to pound Gaza into gravel, there’s no doubt about that. A ground invasion will meet far more resistance than the Israelis seem to expect, but Israel controls the air and Gaza is a fixed target with limited territory. The problem for them is not the Palestinians, but the multiple war fronts that will open up if they do what I think they are about to do (attempted sanitization). Lebanon, Iran and Syria will immediately engage and Israel will not be able to fight them all…”

So far, both Lebanon and Iran have directly engaged Israeli military forces and civilian targets. Syrian militias are also declaring they will once again start attacking US military bases in the region. In my article ‘World War III Is Now Inevitable – Here’s Why It Can’t Be Avoided’ published on April 5th I noted that:

“I warned months ago…that the war in Gaza would expand into a multi-front conflict that would probably include Iran. I also warned that it would be to Israel’s benefit if Iran entered the war because this would eventually force the US to become directly involved. To be sure, Iran has already been engaging in proxy attacks on Israel through Lebanon, but Israel’s attack on the Iranian “embassy” or diplomatic station in Syria basically ensures that Iran will now directly commit to strikes on Israeli targets.”

Iran did indeed commit to a large scale missile and drone based attack on Israel, a situation which has had some curious consequences. Of course, US naval forces aided Israel’s Iron Dome in shooting down the majority of drones and missiles sent by Iran. However, even though there are several videos showing that some cruise missiles hit their targets, the Israelis have been reticent to admit that any damage was done.

I suspect it’s because the cruise missiles struck military targets instead of civilian targets and Israel doesn’t want to release any information on what was hit. Iran’s drones were likely meant to act as decoys for anti-air defenses. They are much cheaper than the missiles used by Israel and the US to shoot them down.

Whether or not these strikes had any real affect on Israeli offensive capabilities we’ll probably never know. What we do know is that Israel’s counter-strike was much smaller than most analysts expected. Does this mean that the tit-for-tat is over and both sides are going hands-off? That would probably be the smart decisions, but no, that’s not what’s happening here.

Israel’s limited response was likely due to a lack of clarity on how much the US government under Biden is willing to participate in the war during an election year. What we will see in the next six months is a steady escalation towards winter, followed by new bombardments with far more extensive destruction than we recently witnessed.

In other words, spring is just the dress rehearsal for what will happen in winter.

Here are the most probable scenarios as 2024 rolls forward…

Air Strikes On Iran

I have little doubt that Israel will commit to extensive aerial strikes on Iran this year or very early in 2025, and we’ll see very quickly if Russian air defense technology sold to the Iranians is effective or ineffective. Iran’s drone program may be useful in helping to even the playing field against Israeli fighter jets, but then again, the technology gap could be extensive.

The Israeli public position will be that their strikes are focused on taking down any existing Iranian nuclear labs. There is no solid evidence that Iran has made much headway in developing nukes (they might have dirty bombs), but the notion of nukes is more than enough in terms of public relations and justification for the war.

Iran Blocks The Strait Of Hormuz

The Strait of Hormuz would be at the top of the list of primary targets for Iran. It is the narrowest point of access to the Persian Gulf and oversees the passage of around 25%-30% of the world’s total oil exports. Blocking it is relatively easy – All Iran has to do is sink a few tankers into the shallow waters or destroy enemy ships passing through, creating a barrier that will make transport of oil impossible.

This would also make naval operations for Israel or the US difficult. Clearing obstructions would take time and expose forces to Iranian artillery which can be fired from up to 450 miles away. Once artillery is locked in on a narrow point or pasage, nothing is going to get through. As we’ve seen in Ukraine, a blanket of artillery fire is essentially unstoppable.

Anti-ship missiles wouldn’t even be necessary and would probably prove less effective, unless they are hypersonic. Iran can also utilize its small fleet of diesel submarines to deploy naval mines in the strait.

Once the Hormuz is disrupted and global oil shipments slow down the US military will join the war if they haven’t done so already.

Israeli Attack Leads To Ground War With Iran/Lebanon

A ground war between Iran and Israel is inevitable if the tit-for-tat continues, and much of it will be fought (at least in the beginning) in Lebanon and perhaps Syria. Iran has a mutual defense pact with both countries and Lebanon is generally a proxy for Iranian defense policy.

Iran will have active troops or proxy forces in all of these regions, not to mention the Houthis in Yemen striking ships in the Red Sea. There are questions in terms of how Iraq will respond to this situation, but there’s not a lot of love between the current government and Israel or the US.

The Iraq government did not initially condemn the attack by Hamas against Israel on October 7th and has voiced support for the Palestinians in Gaza. It’s unlikely that they would willingly allow the use of their territory for projecting an offensive against Iran. The use of Saudi Arabian and Kuwaiti territory is possible for invasion IF the US gets involved, and the Persian Gulf would be a primary point of attack. But, both the US and Israel lack enough regional bases needed to project large scale ground forces into Iran (keep in mind that bases in Afghanistan are now gone).

Turkey is another staging ground for US forces but they certainly don’t like Israel, meaningTurkey is going to be off limits. Like Iraq, I think it will be difficult to convince Turkey, a vocal defender of Gaza, to support an invasion force or exploit their border for operations.

What about Pakistan? No, not a chance. It’s important to remember that many of these nations have worked with the US in the past, but they have angry populations to deal with. Support for an attack on Iran could lead to civil unrest at home.

The war would mostly be fought by air and by sea with US and Israel seeking to dominate the Persian Gulf. A lot of the ground fighting will be done in neighboring countries. A direct invasion of Iran would be an exhaustive affair with mountain terrain that must be reached by going through allied territories.

Can it be done? Yes. Could the US and Israel/allies win? Yes, as long as the goal is destruction and not occupation. Would it be costly? Absolutely. Far too costly to be acceptable to the western public these days, and a war that would require extensive military recruitment or a draft which Americans in particular will not tolerate.

Gas Prices Skyrocket

Think gas prices are high now? Just wait until 25% of the world oil exports are locked out of the market for months at a time. We might see double the prices at the pump; perhaps even triple, and that’s not counting the inflationary conditions already ongoing in the west.

This would be a disaster for the economy as energy prices affect EVERYTHING else. Costs on the shelf will climb right along with oil.

Military Draft And Attacks On Liberty Activists

Below the surface, there are many benefits to expanding the war in the Middle East for the globalists. War can be blamed for the inflationary collapse they created. War can be used as an excuse to implement even more aggressive censorship standards in Europe and the US. War can be used to create a military draft which will trigger great unrest in the US and some parts of the EU. War could invariably be used to rationalize martial law. And, it could even be used to stall or disrupt elections.

At bottom, the war in Ukraine, the war in the Middle East and the many other regional wars that will probably erupt in the next few years have a cumulative effect that causes confusion and chaos. All that is needed is a short period of disarray and a lot of economic panic and the public may even forget who created the mess in the first place Liberty activists caught in the middle of these events will take action to defend their freedoms, and I have no doubt we will be accused of “aiding foreign enemies” or working as “agents of the Russians, Iranians, etc.”

Russian Involvement And World War

Given that NATO has seen fit to engage in a proxy war in Ukraine it makes sense that Russia would return the favor and engage in a proxy war in Iran. Don’t be surprised to see a lot of discussion in the media in the coming months about Russian “advisers” in Iran as well as Russian weaponry. Russia already has military bases in Syria and defense agreements with Iran. It would appear that the US and allies are being set on a collision course with Russia that will lead to direct kinetic interactions.

At this stage world war will already be well underway. Russia and the US may never actually try to strike each other’s territory and nuclear exchange makes little sense for anyone (especially the globalists who would lose their financial and surveillance empire in the blink of an eye) but they will be fighting each other in regional wars in multiple spots across the globe. It seems to me that this process has already been set in motion, and once the avalanche starts, it’s very hard to stop.

*  *  *

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Authored by John and Nisha Whitehead via The Rutherford Institute,

“It is the function of mass agitation to exploit all the grievances, hopes, aspirations, prejudices, fears, and ideals of all the special groups that make up our society, social, religious, economic, racial, political. Stir them up. Set one against the other. Divide and conquer. That’s the way to soften up a democracy.”

- J. Edgar Hoover, Masters of Deceit

“Nothing is real,” observed John Lennon, and that’s especially true of politics.

Much like the fabricated universe in Peter Weir’s 1998 film The Truman Show, in which a man’s life is the basis for an elaborately staged television show aimed at selling products and procuring ratings, the political scene in the United States has devolved over the years into a carefully calibrated exercise in how to manipulate, polarize, propagandize and control a population.

Take the media circus that is the Donald Trump hush money trial, which panders to the public’s voracious appetite for titillating, soap opera drama, keeping the citizenry distracted, diverted and divided.

This is the magic of the reality TV programming that passes for politics today.

Everything becomes entertainment fodder.

As long as we are distracted, entertained, occasionally outraged, always polarized but largely uninvolved and content to remain in the viewer’s seat, we’ll never manage to present a unified front against tyranny (or government corruption and ineptitude) in any form.

Studies suggest that the more reality TV people watch—and I would posit that it’s all reality TV, entertainment news included—the more difficult it becomes to distinguish between what is real and what is carefully crafted farce.

“We the people” are watching a lot of TV.

On average, Americans spend five hours a day watching television. By the time we reach age 65, we’re watching more than 50 hours of television a week, and that number increases as we get older. And reality TV programming consistently captures the largest percentage of TV watchers every season by an almost 2-1 ratio.

This doesn’t bode well for a citizenry able to sift through masterfully-produced propaganda in order to think critically about the issues of the day.

Yet look behind the spectacles, the reality TV theatrics, the sleight-of-hand distractions and diversions, and the stomach-churning, nail-biting drama that is politics today, and you will find there is a method to the madness.

We have become guinea pigs in a ruthlessly calculated, carefully orchestrated, chillingly cold-blooded experiment in how to control a population and advance a political agenda without much opposition from the citizenry.

This is how you persuade a populace to voluntarily march in lockstep with a police state and police themselves (and each other): by ratcheting up the fear-factor, meted out one carefully calibrated crisis at a time, and teaching them to distrust any who diverge from the norm through elaborate propaganda campaigns.

Unsurprisingly, one of the biggest propagandists today is the U.S. government.

Add the government’s inclination to monitor online activity and police so-called “disinformation,” and you have the makings of a restructuring of reality straight out of Orwell’s 1984, where the Ministry of Truth polices speech and ensures that facts conform to whatever version of reality the government propagandists embrace.

This “policing of the mind” is exactly the danger author Jim Keith warned about when he predicted that “information and communication sources are gradually being linked together into a single computerized network, providing an opportunity for unheralded control of what will be broadcast, what will be said, and ultimately what will be thought.”

You may not hear much about the government’s role in producing, planting and peddling propaganda-driven fake news—often with the help of the corporate news media—because the powers-that-be don’t want us skeptical of the government’s message or its corporate accomplices in the mainstream media.

However, when you have social media giants colluding with the government in order to censor so-called disinformation, all the while the mainstream news media, which is supposed to act as a bulwark against government propaganda, has instead become the mouthpiece of the world’s largest corporation (the U.S. government), the Deep State has grown dangerously out-of-control.

This has been in the works for a long time.

Veteran journalist Carl Bernstein, in his expansive 1977 Rolling Stone piece “The CIA and the Media,” reported on Operation Mockingbird, a CIA campaign started in the 1950s to plant intelligence reports among reporters at more than 25 major newspapers and wire agencies, who would then regurgitate them for a public oblivious to the fact that they were being fed government propaganda.

In some instances, as Bernstein showed, members of the media also served as extensions of the surveillance state, with reporters actually carrying out assignments for the CIA. Executives with CBS, the New York Times and Time magazine also worked closely with the CIA to vet the news.

If it was happening then, you can bet it’s still happening today, only this collusion has been reclassified, renamed and hidden behind layers of government secrecy, obfuscation and spin.

In its article, “How the American government is trying to control what you think,” the Washington Post points out “Government agencies historically have made a habit of crossing the blurry line between informing the public and propagandizing.”

This is mind-control in its most sinister form.

The end goal of these mind-control campaigns—packaged in the guise of the greater good—is to see how far the American people will allow the government to go in re-shaping the country in the image of a totalitarian police state.

The government’s fear-mongering is a key element in its mind-control programming.

It’s a simple enough formula. National crises, global pandemics, reported terrorist attacks, and sporadic shootings leave us in a constant state of fear. The emotional panic that accompanies fear actually shuts down the prefrontal cortex or the rational thinking part of our brains. In other words, when we are consumed by fear, we stop thinking.

A populace that stops thinking for themselves is a populace that is easily led, easily manipulated and easily controlled whether through propaganda, brainwashing, mind control, or just plain fear-mongering.

Fear not only increases the power of government, but it also divides the people into factions, persuades them to see each other as the enemy and keeps them screaming at each other so that they drown out all other sounds. In this way, they will never reach consensus about anything and will be too distracted to notice the police state closing in on them until the final crushing curtain falls.

This Machiavellian scheme has so ensnared the nation that few Americans even realize they are being brainwashed—manipulated—into adopting an “us” against “them” mindset. All the while, those in power—bought and paid for by lobbyists and corporations—move their costly agendas forward.

This unseen mechanism of society that manipulates us through fear into compliance is what American theorist Edward L. Bernays referred to as “an invisible government which is the true ruling power of our country.”

It was almost 100 years ago when Bernays wrote his seminal work Propaganda:

“We are governed, our minds are molded, our tastes formed, our ideas suggested, largely by men we have never heard of... In almost every act of our daily lives, whether in the sphere of politics or business, in our social conduct or our ethical thinking, we are dominated by the relatively small number of persons...who understand the mental processes and social patterns of the masses. It is they who pull the wires which control the public mind.”

To this invisible government of rulers who operate behind the scenes—the architects of the Deep State—we are mere puppets on a string, to be brainwashed, manipulated and controlled.

All of the distracting, disheartening, disorienting news you are bombarded with daily is being driven by propaganda churned out by one corporate machine (the corporate-controlled government) and fed to the American people by way of yet another corporate machine (the corporate-controlled media).

“For the first time in human history, there is a concerted strategy to manipulate global perception. And the mass media are operating as its compliant assistants, failing both to resist it and to expose it,” writes investigative journalist Nick Davies.

So where does that leave us?

Americans should beware of letting others—whether they be television news hosts, political commentators or media corporations—do their thinking for them.

A populace that cannot think for themselves is a populace with its backs to the walls: mute in the face of elected officials who refuse to represent us, helpless in the face of police brutality, powerless in the face of militarized tactics and technology that treat us like enemy combatants on a battlefield, and naked in the face of government surveillance that sees and hears all.

As I make clear in my book Battlefield America: The War on the American People and in its fictional counterpart The Erik Blair Diaries, it’s time to change the channel, tune out the reality TV show, and push back against the real menace of the police state.

If not, if we continue to sit back and lose ourselves in political programming, we will remain a captive audience to a farce that grows more absurd by the minute.

Authored by Daisy Luther via The Organic Prepper blog,

EMPs (Electromagnetic Pulse) are a trope that is often used in prepper fiction.

We often think of an EMP attack as the worst-case, end-of-the-world-as-we-know-it scenario that is just around the corner.

There’s little doubt that it would change everything, but what’s the truth?

Here’s what an expert has to say about EMPs

Nobody knows this better than Dr. Arthur T. Bradley. Dr Bradley is a NASA engineer and the leading expert on EMPs in the preparedness community. He’s the author of Handbook to Practical Disaster Preparedness and the must-have Disaster Preparedness for EMPs and Solar Storms. I’ve had the opportunity to speak with him before myself, and you couldn’t ask for a nicer, more down-to-earth person. He really knows what he’s talking about and he shares information without hyperbole. He is the person I trust the most for information in this genre.

In this compelling interview, Brian Duff interviews Dr. Bradley to get the real answers. If you want to separate fact from fiction, watch this video.

Authored by Zachary Stieber via The Epoch Times,

Children who received an original COVID-19 vaccine have little protection against hospitalization just months after vaccination, according to a new study from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC).

Children initially have 52 percent protection against hospitalization but that estimated effectiveness plummeted to 19 percent after four months, according to the paper.

Protection against so-called critical illness also dropped sharply, from 57 percent to 25 percent, researchers found.

The researchers include CDC employees and the paper was published in the CDC’s weekly digest on April 18.

The study covered children who received two or more doses of the original Pfizer-BioNTech or Moderna COVID-19 vaccines from Dec. 19, 2021, through Oct. 29, 2023.

The study involved children aged 5 to 18 who were hospitalized with acute COVID-19 and tested positive for the illness and compared them to a control group of children hospitalized with COVID-19-like symptoms but who tested negative for COVID-19.

Researchers drew data from the Overcoming COVID-19 Network, which includes health care sites in most of the United States, and ended up with 1,551 case patients and 1,797 in the control group.

The study found that “receipt of =2 original monovalent COVID-19 vaccine doses was associated with fewer COVID-19–related hospitalizations in children and adolescents aged 5–18 years; however, protection from original vaccines was not sustained over time,” Laura Zambrano, a CDC epidemiologist, and her co-authors wrote.

It also recorded a similar drop in protection against critical illness, defined as being placed on mechanical ventilation, vasoactive infusions, extracorporeal membrane oxygenation, or dying.

The researchers asserted that the results highlighted the current CDC guidance that all people aged 6 months and older receive one of the newest COVID-19 vaccines, which were introduced in the fall of 2023 with clinical data from just 50 humans and no efficacy estimates. The CDC only publishes papers in its weekly digest, the Morbidity and Mortality Weekly Report, after they’re shaped to “comport with CDC policy.” The papers are not peer-reviewed.

Ms. Zambrano did not respond when asked for data suggesting that the currently available shots provide longer-lasting protection than the original vaccines.

The CDC’s website says, in promoting vaccination, that COVID-19 vaccines are “effective at protecting people from getting seriously ill, being hospitalized, and dying” but the hyperlink that ostensibly supports the statement goes to a page that is not live.

U.S. authorities have been moving COVID-19 vaccines to a once-a-year model, similar to influenza vaccines. The model features updating the formulation of the vaccines on an annual basis, in an acknowledgment that any protection the vaccines give quickly wanes. The formulation is typically updated in the fall.

Just 14 percent of children, and 23 percent of adults, have received one of the newest vaccines as of April 6, according to CDC estimates. The available vaccines are messenger RNA (mRNA) shots from Pfizer and Moderna and an alternative from Novavax.

Dr. Jane Orient, executive director of the Association of American Physicians and Surgeons, noted that, according to the new paper, the maximum effectiveness estimates against hospitalization were 61 percent, regardless of how the data were sliced, that more deaths were recorded among the case patients, and the median hospitalization duration was four days for both groups.

“I do not see how a clinician whose concern is treating patients and whose job does not depend on pushing mRNA vaccines would find this a basis for recommending shots—quite the contrary,” Dr. Orient, who was not involved in the research, told The Epoch Times in an email.

“It reeks of conflict of interest.”

Stated limitations of the paper include not assessing post-infection immunity and a lack of sequencing data.

The conflict of interest section runs 688 words and includes some of the authors reporting funding from Pfizer and Moderna or ownership of Pfizer stock.

Smaller is better...at least in the world of building EVs for the Asian market.

And while less scrupulous publications might take this opportunity to make stereotypical jokes about height, we'll do no such thing and instead will simply report that according to the IEA's Global Electric Vehicle Outlook 2024, released Tuesday, China dominated the EV market in 2023.

In fact, it made up 60% of global sales, according to a new report from Reuters. The report forecasts that by 2030, electric vehicles will represent one-third of all cars in China.

The latest IEA report highlights China's increasing dominance in the global electric vehicle market, particularly across Asia's burgeoning economies. China is capitalizing on its extensive industrial capabilities to expand its EV influence, promoting more affordable electric vehicles in nations like Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia, the report says.

The key to China's success has been managing cost, the IEA report notes: "In China, we estimate that more than 60% of electric cars sold in 2023 were already cheaper than their average combustion engine equivalent."

It continued: "However, electric cars remain 10% to 50% more expensive than combustion engine equivalents in Europe and the United States, depending on the country and car segment."

"In 2023, 55% to 95% of the electric car sales across major emerging and developing economies were large models that are unaffordable for the average consumer, hindering mass-market uptake," the IEA report continued, according to Reuters.

"However, smaller and much more affordable models launched in 2022 and 2023 have quickly become bestsellers, especially those by Chinese car makers expanding overseas."

The report emphasizes China's growing edge due to making affordable EVs, which is proving successful across Asia.

European and U.S. automakers, by contrast, target wealthier customers with costlier, luxury EV models.

In Asia, countries like Thailand, Vietnam, and Indonesia are rapidly adopting EVs, supported by favorable policies and incentives, enhancing the market share of Chinese manufacturers.

In 2023, EV sales soared in these regions despite broader market contractions. Additionally, China faces its challenges, including potential EU tariffs and an oversupply in its EV market. The IEA report suggests that for widespread EV adoption, European and U.S. manufacturers need to focus on lowering costs and improving infrastructure.

You can read the IEA's full report here. 

Via The College Fix,

A new study out of UCLA says same-sex couples are at greater “risk of exposure to the adverse effects of climate change” than straight couples.

These effects include “wildfires, floods, smoke-filled skies, and drought,” according to a report from KQED.

Same-sex couples disproportionately live in coastal regions and cities, which are more vulnerable to such disasters. They’re also more likely “to live in areas with poor infrastructure, worse-built environments.”

Washington DC, which rates high for “climate risks” such as heat waves, floods, and “dangerously strong winds,” has the greatest proportion of gay couples in the U.S.

San Francisco ranks second, and also faces a high climate change risk. According to KQED report, the city’s Leather & LGBTQ Cultural District flooded 22 years ago, “swamping” the entire area.

The closest supermarket, Rainbow Grocery, also got flooded.

Ari Shaw, director of International Programs at UCLA’s School of Law’s Williams Institute who specializes in “international human rights, LGBTI politics, and U.S. foreign policy,” noted the study “cuts against the narrative” that LGBT individuals “have access to all the resources that they need.”

From the story:

Shaw said his team considered same-sex couples because the U.S. Census gathers information on cohabitating same-sex households but does not broadly collect sexual orientation or gender data.

“This study helps to shine a light on what is likely a much larger and more complicated picture,” he said. “Our findings probably understate the true impact that climate change is having on LGBTQ people.”

The new research moves the needle in helping the nation understand who is at risk of climate disasters, UC Irvine sociology professor Michael Méndez said. He previously studied how queer communities are often left out of disaster planning.

“The needle is moving slowly,” Méndez said. “These disasters are not happening in isolation. If an individual is feeling discrimination, or a lack of safety in their home and a disaster happens, they can feel even more vulnerable.”

But what Méndez said the study doesn’t reveal is who the same-sex couples are in terms of [race], income and their positions in society.

Among several recommendations, Shaw and study co-author Lindsay Mahowald say climate disaster relief should be “administered without discrimination on the basis of sexual orientation, gender identity, or gender expression,” and that future surveys like the U.S. Census ought to include “measures of sexual orientation and gender identity.”