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[Health Care] How Biden and IRS Unlawfully Expanded Obamacare

President Joe Biden announced Tuesday that his administration had expanded Obamacare. Congress didn’t legislate the expansion. The Internal Revenue Service did. The IRS scrapped an... Read More

The post How Biden and IRS Unlawfully Expanded Obamacare appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:10/13/2022 2:51:26 PM
[World] Democrats gut Medicare to pay for Obamacare As voters worry about runaway inflation and an economy on the brink of recession, Democrats are instead focused on expanding Obamacare spending and punishing drug companies. Published:8/3/2022 2:12:47 PM
[Health Care] Extending Enhanced Obamacare Subsidies Would Be Costly, Ineffective

The deal struck by Democratic Sens. Chuck Schumer of New York and Joe Manchin of West Virginia on the so-called Inflation Reduction Act would extend... Read More

The post Extending Enhanced Obamacare Subsidies Would Be Costly, Ineffective appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:7/29/2022 12:48:28 AM
[Health Care] ‘It’s Hurting People’: Sen. Mike Lee Calls for End of Obamacare 

A leading conservative senator, blaming Obamacare for skyrocketing health care prices in his state, laid out policy solutions Tuesday to create a health care system... Read More

The post ‘It’s Hurting People’: Sen. Mike Lee Calls for End of Obamacare  appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:7/27/2022 10:49:42 PM
[Markets] US Bureau Says "Leaked" 10.2% CPI Report Was Fake, So Here's What To Expect US Bureau Says "Leaked" 10.2% CPI Report Was Fake, So Here's What To Expect

The US CPI report will be the main highlight tomorrow, and will also serve as what JPMorgan calls a "market clearing event."  While the BBG median consensus expects +8.8% YoY vs. +8.6% in June, Goldman and JPM expect 8.88% and 8.7% respectively, with whisper numbers at, or above, 9.0%

One bit of “good” news, according to Deutsche Bank, is that yesterday the NY Fed’s long-run consumer inflation expectations series showed a decent dip and helped encourage a big rally in bonds as the tug of war in the asset class continues.

Of course, much of this early optimism was reversed by today's fake CPI report "leak" which emerged around noon and signaled a 10.2% Y/Y CPI print, but was only noticed by traders and algos in the last hour of trading, sending stocks tumbling to session lows driven by a huge sell program in a very illiquid market...

... before people pointed out that the report was i) fake and ii) had been around for hours.

So paranoid is the market, and so gullible about "bad news" tomorrow, that none other than the US government's Bureau of Labor Statistics had to ease traders' nerves, saying that the "leaked" report was indeed a forgery.

“We are aware of a fake version of the June 2022 Consumer Price Index news release that is being circulated online,” BLS spokesperson Cody Parkinson told Bloomberg said in an emailed statement.

Which of course is not to say that tomorrow's CPI print won't be 10.2%, although that would be especially cruel. As a reminder, a on Monday we showed why a case for a sharply higher 9% headline CPI print tomorrow is possible, but that most likely will also be the peak as numbers grind lower afterwards, at least until gasoline prices soar again.

In any case, back to the forgery, none other than JPMorgan trader Andrew Tyler wrote in his EOD note (available to pro subs) that "several clients have pointed to a leaked CPI number that is circulating around social media. I have been told it is an ugly number with some suggesting that it will print above 10%. Other media sites now saying the early release is a fake."

With that in mind, Tyler says to keep an eye on the energy component as we have seen a material fall in gasoline prices that will not be fully incorporated into Headline CPI, something which the White House has repeatedly said in the past two days (if forgetting that the only reason energy prices have plunged is because of the coming Biden recession).

In any case, below is a chart of gasoline with highlights for May and June price performance. Separately, Rates vol and Equity vol  have divergence recently "so beware that CPI could drive both higher."

Fake leaks aside, this is what JPM's chief economist thinks will happen tomorrow

  • JPM chief economist Michael Feroli thinks CPI prints 1.1% MoM and 8.7% YoY but given the labor market data from last week, the Fed is locked in to 75bps for July. He sees Core CPI rising 0.45%, a softer number than recent prints.
  • Private Payrolls are now above February 2020 levels. JOLTS job openings fell MoM but there are approximately 1.9x job openings per each unemployed person, this compares to ~1.2x in Feb 2020.
  • The Nat’l Federation of Independent Business reports that ~50% of small businesses had job openings in June with 48% saying they hiked compensation (BBG).
  • Feroli updated his Fed forecast where he sees the Fed ending its hikes in December with a 3.25% - 3.50% range which means that the Fed would hike 75bps in July, 50bps in September, and then 25bps in both November and December with no further hikes in 2023.
  • Many conversations surround peak inflation following the publication of the below chart from our inflation Phoebe White (full note is here). Longer-term inflation expectations have essentially round-tripped the move following the beginning of the RU/UKR conflict.

And while JPMorgan is slightly on the dovish side of the 8.8% consensus, Goldman is on the other side, with the bank today publishing a note (available to pro subs), in which it says that it expects a 1.15% increase in headline CPI in June, slightly above consensus expectations for a 1.1% increase and corresponding to a year-over-year rate of 8.88% (not 8.87% or 8.89%). On the other hand, Goldman sees slightly easier core prints with a 0.50% increase in June core CPI, below consensus expectations for a 0.6% increase and corresponding to a 0.3pp decline in the year-over-year rate to 5.71%.

Goldman highlights four key component-level trends for the June report:

1. Shelter. The most important category to watch in Wednesday’s report is the large and persistent shelter component (as we predicted it would be last summer when the macro-tourists, perma-idiots and other central bankers were still saying inflation would be transitory), which accelerated unexpectedly to its fastest monthly pace since 1991 in May. Goldman expects sequentially slower shelter inflation in the June report (rent +0.57% and OER 0.50%), reflecting slowing gains in the alternative rent measures that make up our shelter tracker and an OER drag from imputed utilities.

2. Nondurable goods or the bullwhip effect. Following the product shortages of 2021, inventories have now substantially overshot their pre-pandemic levels at large retailers like Target and Walmart. Some companies have already said that they anticipate cutting prices in coming months in order to reduce inventory stocks to more normal levels, and Goldman expects to see a 1% drop in apparel prices in June.

3. Auto and parts. On the other side, expect further increases in auto prices (new +1.4%, used +1.1%, parts +1.5%) due to continued global supply disruptions, most notably the Ukraine-Russia war and China lockdowns. US automakers have been more optimistic about raising production later this year, which should eventually lead to more moderate growth in new car prices.

4. Health care. The CPI’s health insurance component closely tracks annual changes in insurer profitability. Goldman forecasted the sharp acceleration seen this year last fall based on the insurer data, and expects this small category to continue to make an outsized contribution until new insurer data are incorporated in October, at which point it is likely to turn quite negative for the next year. Goldman forecasts a +0.49% (mom sa) increase in medical services prices this month.

Going forward, Goldman expects monthly core CPI inflation to remain strong in late summer, picking back up to 0.53% in September, before eventually falling to 0.30% by December 2022. Absent a major recession (or depression), the bank forecasts year-on-year core CPI inflation of 5.5% in December 2022, 2.4% in December 2023, and 2.6% in December 2024.  The forecast reflects a negative swing in health insurance prices and a larger slowdown in goods than in services inflation next year.

More detailed previews of tomorrow's CPI available to pro subs in the usual place.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/12/2022 - 22:45
Published:7/12/2022 9:50:15 PM
[Markets] Victor Davis Hanson: The Disappearing American? Victor Davis Hanson: The Disappearing American?

Authored by Victor Davis Hanson,

“Help wanted” and “Now hiring” signs are everywhere.

Flights, construction projects, and healthcare services are delayed – or unavailable – due to labor shortages.

Hourly and monthly wages spiral.

There is a growing disequilibrium between the number of available jobs and the declining pool of workers needed to fill them.

What is going on?

During the nearly two-year-long COVID-19 shutdown and economic downturn, firms cut costs by laying off millions of employees.

As a result, some in their early- or mid-60s simply retired early and never came back to work.

Federal and state governments also vastly expanded financial support to the unemployed.

Other workers figured they would not make all that much more by working and so are staying home on government checks.

Still other former full-time employees became used to the new, more leisurely lifestyle and are loath to return to a full 40-hour work week.

Employers also are now convinced that a hard recession is on the early 2023 horizon when the trillions of dollars of newly printed money run out. Many are willing to put up with worker shortages now, rather than hire too many employees only to have them idle when consumer demand soon crashes.

Still other workers fear yet another COVID pandemic and are not eager to return to daily contact with the public.

The government has no idea how some Americans remain sick with the mysterious “long COVID” chronic aftermath of the infectious phase of the disease.

Well over 100 million Americans have likely had COVID. An estimated 10-30 percent do not recover for months — or even years.

So, millions of COVID long haulers remain either unable to work or can only work part-time.

Yet no one yet has fully calibrated the effect of newly disabled millions on the American economy.

Add up all these dark clouds and America is experiencing a perfect storm, in which only 61% of the able workforce is currently officially employed.

Unfortunately, there are also even longer-term, structural labor problems for the U.S. economy that make it unlikely that a new larger generation of workers will soon surge into the labor force. And for now, Silicon Valley has not produced its long promised artificially intelligent robots that would allow machines to do much of the work of people.

True, there are more potential parents than ever before. And the American population has soared to over 330 million.

But our population is radically leveling off.

In just 14 years the fertility rate has crashed from 2.12 to 1.64 — meaning that both citizens and resident aliens in America are not replacing themselves.

While past demographic momentum has led to an all-time population high, the United States has already peaked demographically. And it will soon shrink and further age.

Thirty years ago, America had 80 million fewer people, but a quarter-million more annual births.

What explains the disappearing American?

Historically, as Westernized cultures become more affluent and leisured, whether it’s ancient Rome or modern America and Europe, they birth fewer children — even as their appetites for more household and personal help spike.

Life apparently is seen as too enjoyable to invest years in raising children. Americans are certainly marrying later. They are having fewer children — and in their 30s rather than 20s.

Women now make up nearly 60% of undergraduate college students. Female professional careers and delaying or avoiding birth are seen as essential to future family incomes.

Given that men who pass on college now account for 70% of enrollment declines in undergraduate education, there are far too few college-educated males for the new majority cohort of college-educated women.

The real gender crisis in America are these listless and stalled 20-something men. Too many are still living at home, not fully employed, often in debt, hooked on social media, video games, or satisfying their appetites — and with scant interest in marrying, much less raising children.

Figures on annual abortions remain hotly disputed. But the number of annual reported abortions still ranges between somewhere from more than 600,000 to just under 900,000.

There may be almost 20 abortions for every 100 American pregnancies — or one in five pregnancies that are terminated.

Our popular culture reflects this multifarious growing reluctance to raise children. And currently only 65% of children grow up in families with both parents.

The 2012 Obamacare ad, “The Life of Julia,” fixated on the new ideal American woman: a single parent of one child, unmarried, and utterly reliant on nearly 65 years of government support.

The 2013 follow-up bookend ad fetishized “Pajama Boy.” He was supposed to be a typical prolonged-adolescent, man-child — sitting at home in his child-like footie pajamas, sipping hot chocolate.

“Pajama Boy” was likely the sort that “Julia” had no intention of marrying.

There are historical downsides — economic, cultural, social, and military — to nations that shun child-raising.

They shrink in size, age, no longer believe in transcendence, become mostly agnostic or atheistic, and obsess on the self.

And sometimes they eventually become dysfunctional — and slowly disappear.

Tyler Durden Thu, 07/07/2022 - 21:00
Published:7/7/2022 8:22:58 PM
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