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[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Biden-McCarthy Debt Ceiling Meeting Imminent; Tesla Stock Has New Buy Point Dow Jones futures were little changed late Monday ahead of the imminent Biden-McCarthy debt ceiling meeting. Tesla stock has a new buy point. Published:5/22/2023 4:07:26 PM
[Markets] Stocks Close Mixed. Eyes Are on the White House's Debt Ceiling Meeting. Stocks closed mixed on Monday as traders waited for news on whether or not the government would come to an agreement to avoid defaulting on its debt. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 140 points or 0. Published:5/22/2023 3:18:20 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls But Other Indexes Climb As McCarthy Urges Biden To Beat This Addiction; DraftKings Soars On Upgrade The Dow Jones dipped as Kevin McCarthy issued a challenge to President Joe Biden. DraftKings soared. Apple stock dipped after a downgrade. Published:5/22/2023 2:26:27 PM
[Markets] Stocks Remain Mixed. Nike Drags on Dow. Stocks remained mixed Monday as traders waited for the U.S. government to agree on a bill to raise the debt ceiling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost 70 points or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was up 0.3%, and the tech heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 0. Published:5/22/2023 2:17:28 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Aerospace Giant Boeing Eyes Latest Buy Point. 3 Others To Buy And Watch. Dow Jones aerospace and defense giant Boeing, along with ASML, Cadence and DraftKings, are in or near buy zones in today's stock market. Published:5/22/2023 12:37:16 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls Ahead Of Biden-McCarthy Debt Ceiling Meeting; Apple Slides On Downgrade The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Monday ahead of a meeting between President Biden and Kevin McCarthy, as debt ceiling talks nearly fell apart. Published:5/22/2023 8:37:13 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Biden-McCarthy Debt Ceiling Meeting; Apple Slides On Downgrade Dow Jones futures rose Monday ahead of a meeting between President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as debt ceiling talks nearly fell apart. Published:5/22/2023 8:00:17 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise; Biden, McCarthy To Meet With Debt Ceiling Talks Stalled; Apple Slides On Downgrade Dow Jones futures rose Monday ahead of a meeting between President Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy, as debt ceiling talks nearly fell apart. Published:5/22/2023 7:29:14 AM
[Markets] U.S. Stocks Pause as Debt-Ceiling Talks Reach Critical Stage U.S. stock futures appeared to take a pause early Monday ahead of a crucial week for debt ceiling negotiations. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 6 points higher, while S&P 500 futures were also flat. With just over a week to go to the estimated June 1 deadline for raising the debt limit, President Joe Biden will meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif) in a bid to break the deadlock between the two sides. Published:5/22/2023 6:04:29 AM
[Markets] U.S. Stocks Mixed as Debt-Ceiling Talks Reach Critical Stage U.S. stock futures were mixed early Monday ahead of a crucial week for debt ceiling negotiations. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged 6 points higher, while S&P 500 futures were also flat. With just over a week to go to the estimated June 1 deadline for raising the debt limit, President Joe Biden will meet with House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R., Calif) in a bid to break the deadlock between the two sides. Published:5/22/2023 4:26:12 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Today: Debt Deal Pause Drives Down Index Tech stocks Cisco Systems, Intel and IBM moved higher, but Nike dragged the Dow lower on shoe sale worries. Published:5/19/2023 4:58:07 PM
[Markets] Boeing, First Solar, and Viking Therapeutics Notch Stellar Performances Over the Last Year Three stocks have had stellar performances over the last 12 months in their respective indexes, according to Dow Jones Market Data as of Friday afternoon. The best performer in the Dow Jones Industrial Average is aerospace giant Boeing (BA), which has gained 70% over the last 12 months. The best performer in the S&P 500 is solar company First Solar (FSLR), which has soared 208% over the last year. Published:5/19/2023 2:37:09 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Turns Lower As Debt-Ceiling Talks Stall. Sellers Smack Deere Despite Stellar Earnings. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded lower along with the major stock indexes Friday as debt-ceiling talks stalled. Dow Jones stock Nike lagged badly, down in sympathy with Foot Locker, which fell sharply after earnings. Early gainers in the Dow Jones included technology stocks Cisco Systems and IBM, along with Merck. Published:5/19/2023 11:16:45 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Extends Gains As Warren Buffett Buys More OXY Stock; Sellers Smack Deere Despite Stellar Earnings The Dow Jones extended gains Friday after finding support at its 50-day moving average, led by Intel, IBM and Cisco Systems. Published:5/19/2023 9:51:29 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Higher Ahead of Powell Remarks Markets opened higher Friday as investors remained upbeat about debt ceiling discussions and prepared for remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 28 points, or 0. Published:5/19/2023 9:02:40 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises Ahead Of Powell Speech; Warren Buffett Boosts Stake In Occidental The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Friday ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech. Warren Buffett boosted his stake in Occidental to nearly $13 billion. Published:5/19/2023 8:52:10 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Inch Higher Ahead of Powell Remarks Stock futures were edging higher Friday as markets continue to monitor talks on the debt ceiling ahead of comments from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 91 points, or 0. Published:5/19/2023 8:21:58 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Powell Speech; Warren Buffett Boosts Stake In Occidental Dow Jones futures rose Friday ahead of Fed Chair Powell's speech. Warren Buffett boosted his stake in Occidental to nearly $13 billion. Published:5/19/2023 7:33:34 AM
[Markets] Is It Time to Buy the Dow Jones' 3 Worst-Performing Stocks This Year? The Dow Jones Industrial Average was the best-performing of the three major indexes in 2022, but 2023 hasn't been as kind to the blue chip index. The regional banking crisis has hit the Dow hard, and the rebound in tech stocks has also left it lagging behind the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which have more exposure to the tech sector. As you can see from the chart below, the Dow is actually down slightly for the year even as the other two indexes have delivered solid gains. Published:5/19/2023 4:49:31 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Today: Intel Pushes Index Higher The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied to finish higher by 0.3%, or 115 points, after earlier falling almost 150 points in intraday trading, fueled partly by optimism that U.S. lawmakers will resolve the debt ceiling standoff. The Dow climbed for the second straight day after House Speaker Kevin McCarthy told reporters that the House of Representatives could consider legislation to extend the U.S. debt limit as early as next week, saying negotiations were in a “better place.” The Nasdaq moved up 1.5% to reach a 52-week high, while the S&P 500 also moved higher. Published:5/18/2023 4:45:24 PM
[Markets] S&P 500 Beats 2023 Closing High The S&P 500 surpassed its closing high for the year on Thursday, as investors seesawed between optimism on debt ceiling discussions and worries over hawkish Fed commentary. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 115 points, or 0. Published:5/18/2023 3:36:19 PM
[Markets] Hawkish FedSpeak Batters Bonds & Bullion; Tech Melt-Up Accelerates Hawkish FedSpeak Batters Bonds & Bullion; Tech Melt-Up Accelerates

'Positive' jobless claims data (which simply unwound last week's farce in MA) and 'not pretty' existing home sales data were dominated today by some notably more-hawkish-than-recent-norms FedSpeak to start the day:

Dallas Fed's Logan: "The data in coming weeks could yet show that it is appropriate to skip a meeting..."

"As of today, though, we aren’t there yet... We haven't yet made the progress we need to make. And it's a long way from here to 2% inflation."

Fed Gov Jefferson: "Inflation is too high, and we have not yet made sufficient progress on reducing it," he said.

"Outside of energy and food, the progress on inflation remains a challenge... a year is not a long enough period for demand to feel the full effect of higher interest rates."

St.Louis Fed's Bullard warned that "it may warrant taking out some insurance by raising rates somewhat more to make sure that we really do get inflation under control..."

"Our main risk is that inflation doesn’t go down or even turns around and goes higher, as it did in the 1970s."

So, a pause at best, more hikes possible, no signs of cuts at all, and the curve is adjusting that way...

Source: Bloomberg

Rate-change expectations continued to trend hawkishly higher (removing more cut expectations)...

Source: Bloomberg

Overall, Treasury yields soared higher with the short-end monkeyhammered (2Y +12bps, 30Y +5bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

And the yield curve flattened (inverted) further, shouting recession...

Source: Bloomberg

In fact, as Goldman notes, the 2y and 3y segments of the money market curves price substantially higher probability of recession compared to all four cycles since 1990...

...and then the rate-cuts?

Tech stocks saw more panic/safe-haven/momo/AI-fomo flows today with Nasdaq handily outperforming while The Dow and Small Caps underperformed and the S&P danced in the middle. The last two hours saw everything melt-up...

NVDA continued its melt up (another upgrade), rallying 5% today (AI God mode)...

As we reflected earlier, for NVDA to grow into its market cap, not only does AI have to put everyone out of work by 2030 but humans will be daytrading in zoos entertaining the algos...

NFLX also surged after reports that its ad-supported subs had hit 5 million...

Regional bank stocks bobbed and weaved between gains and losses...

The Dow is unch YTD, Nasdaq is not...

Source: Bloomberg

After all that, The Nasdaq is outperforming The Dow by an entire bull market...

Tech valuations are at extreme levels relative to the broad market now...

Source: Bloomberg

The equal-weighted S&P is unchanged YTD...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar continued to rise tick for tick with the Sept Fed rate expectation (implying only marginal gains from here for the dollar)...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was rug-pulled again at $27,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold extended its losses after breaking $2000

Oil prices dipped lower again today with WTI back at a $71 handle

Finally, Goldman points out The Confusing Triangle: the dollar, tech stocks and real rates into a recession.

The dollar rallies (fact) on higher real rates (check) OR rising risk aversion (not present), tech rallies (fact) on lower real rates (not present) OR higher risk appetite due to US exceptionalism (check).

Source: Bloomberg

One of these would be wrong if real rates and US exceptionalism are equally weighted but it is hard to say which one as both are expensive and due for a meaningful correction given the probability of recession.

Goldman suggests that given that equities are at odds with oil in terms of pricing the probability of an adverse growth outcome, we would think that in the past week or so the dollar is right and equities aren't.

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/18/2023 - 16:01
Published:5/18/2023 3:22:44 PM
[Markets] Nasdaq Hits Highs As McCarthy 'Sees Path'; Tech Takes Lead Even As Fed Governors Chime In On Rate Pause Dow Jones fell even as McCarthy saw 'a path' to agreement on the debt ceiling. Fed governors are divided on June rate pause. Published:5/18/2023 12:59:43 PM
[Markets] McCarthy Says House Could Vote on Debt-Ceiling Deal Next Week The Dow Jones Industrial Average erased earlier losses after Speaker Kevin McCarthy suggested the House of Representatives [could vote on a debt-ceiling deal](https://www.marketwatch.com/story/house-could-vote-on-debt-ceiling-deal-as-soon-as-next-week-mccarthy-says-92e5c734) as soon as next week. Published:5/18/2023 10:11:30 AM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow dips as losses in Cisco cloud upbeat Walmart forecast The Dow fell on Thursday as losses in Cisco shares due to slowing product demand clouded Walmart's strong annual forecast and hopes of a deal to avoid a catastrophic debt default. Dow Jones Industrial Average constituent Cisco Systems Inc slipped 1.7% after it said a large backlog of products weighed on demand for new orders from customers. Published:5/18/2023 9:16:11 AM
[Markets] Dow Opens Lower Amid Hawkish Fed Comments The major stock indexes were mixed at the open Thursday amid hawkish commentary from Federal Reserve officials. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 95 points, or 0.3%, the S&P 500 slipped 0.1%, and the Nasdaq Composite gained 0. Published:5/18/2023 8:51:23 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls After Jobless Claims; Walmart Rallies On Earnings The Dow Jones dropped Thursday on a big surprise drop in jobless claims. Walmart stock jumped on strong first-quarter earnings results. Published:5/18/2023 8:45:29 AM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow set to dip at open as Cisco fall clouds upbeat Walmart forecast The Dow was set to open lower on Thursday after Cisco shares fell on slowing demand for its products, clouding Walmart's strong annual forecast and optimism over a potential deal to avoid a catastrophic debt default. Dow Jones Industrial Average constituent Cisco Systems Inc's shares fell 4.3% in premarket trading after it said a large backlog of products weighed on demand for new orders from customers. Shares of Walmart Inc rose 1.7% after the retailer raised its annual sales and profit targets, befitting from inflation-wary consumers trading down to cheaper groceries. Published:5/18/2023 8:19:37 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall After Jobless Claims; Walmart Rallies On Earnings Dow Jones futures turned lower Thursday after a surprise drop in jobless claims. Walmart stock jumped on strong Q1 earnings results. Published:5/18/2023 7:48:37 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Jobless Claims; Walmart Rallies On Earnings Dow Jones futures fell Thursday ahead of jobless claims data. Walmart stock jumped on strong Q1 earnings results. Published:5/18/2023 7:36:23 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Jobless Claims; Walmart Rallies On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of jobless claims data. Walmart stock jumped on strong Q1 earnings results. Published:5/18/2023 7:30:39 AM
[eb111338-a781-5619-bec2-60359508bb89] 'Leave It to Beaver' star Jerry Mathers reveals why he was ready to leave hit '50s sitcom Jerry Mathers and Rusty Stevens, who played Beaver’s friend Larry Mondello, are the only surviving members of the show’s core cast. Tony Dow died in 2022. Published:5/18/2023 3:07:00 AM
[Markets] Cisco, Take-Two Tell 2 Tales of Earnings Season Gains for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) all topped 1%, bouncing back from weakness earlier in the week. The latest financial results from Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO) and Take-Two Interactive Software (NASDAQ: TTWO) got very different reactions from shareholders, but both showed a combination of positive and negative factors that are affecting businesses across the economy. Shares of Cisco Systems fell almost 4% in after-hours trading late Wednesday. Published:5/17/2023 5:33:47 PM
[Markets] Dow finishes up 400 points on optimism over debt-ceiling talks Dow finishes up 400 points on optimism over debt-ceiling talks Published:5/17/2023 3:59:15 PM
[Markets] Markets Have Best Day in Nearly 2 Weeks Stocks closed higher Wednesday, with strong performances across the regional banking sector, as investors became hopeful of an agreement over the debt ceiling. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 409 points, or 1. Published:5/17/2023 3:47:26 PM
[Markets] Dow Soars 400 Points as Stocks Keep Climbing Markets climbed further Wednesday afternoon, as investors remained optimistic that debt ceiling issues will be resolved in the near-term. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 427 points, or 1.3%, the S&P 500 gained 1. Published:5/17/2023 1:31:00 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On Debt Ceiling Optimism; Tesla Rallies As Elon Musk Talks Cybertruck The Dow Jones rose Wednesday on debt ceiling optimism. Tesla rallied as CEO Elon Musk said "production Cybertrucks" were out this year. Published:5/17/2023 9:42:39 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise On Debt Ceiling Optimism; Tesla Rallies As Elon Musk Talks Cybertruck Dow Jones futures rose Wednesday on debt ceiling optimism. Tesla rallied as CEO Elon Musk said "production Cybertrucks" were out this year. Published:5/17/2023 7:21:26 AM
[Markets] Is This Dow Jones Stock a Buy for Income Investors? Replacing Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) as a component of the Dow Jones Industrial Average nearly three years ago, the pharmaceutical company Amgen (NASDAQ: AMGN) is among the best dividend payers in its industry. Let's dig into Amgen's fundamentals and valuation to get an answer to this question. With around 24,000 employees in total, Amgen is a major drugmaker with a $124 billion market capitalization. Published:5/17/2023 4:16:11 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Breaks Support As President Biden Makes This Debt-Ceiling Move; Elon Musk Says Tesla Cybertruck Coming This Year The Dow fell below its 50-day as President Biden signaled a debt-ceiling deal isn't close. Elon Musk said the Tesla Cybertruck is coming. Published:5/16/2023 4:45:25 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Today: Index Falls on Retail Sales Slump The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1%, or 336 points, on a day of disappointing earnings and macroeconomic reports. Nike lost the most, while Microsoft led a small pack of gainers. Published:5/16/2023 4:17:18 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Losses Worsen As McCarthy Jabs Biden Over Debt Ceiling; Warren Buffett Buys This Bank Stock The Dow Jones fell after Home Depot earnings. Warren Buffett snapped up a new stock. Kevin McCarthy blasted Joe Biden over the debt ceiling. Published:5/16/2023 3:44:58 PM
[Markets] Dow ends down 300 points on lackluster Home Depot forecast, retail-sales data Dow ends down 300 points on lackluster Home Depot forecast, retail-sales data Published:5/16/2023 3:22:03 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As Home Depot Disappoints; Warren Buffett Buys This Financial Stock Despite Crisis The Dow Jones fell after Home Depot earnings. Warren Buffett snapped up a new stock. Kevin McCarthy blasted Joe Biden over the debt ceiling. Published:5/16/2023 2:31:22 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Leader Salesforce, Chip Giant AMD Lead 4 Stocks In Or Near Buy Zones Dow Jones stock leader Salesforce and chip giant Advanced Micro Devices are in new buy zones in today's stock market. Published:5/16/2023 1:14:27 PM
[Markets] Stocks Are Mixed, With Eyes on Debt-Ceiling Talks The major stock indexes were mixed Tuesday afternoon as [debt ceiling talks](https://www.barrons.com/articles/debt-ceiling-limit-deal-talks-today-439f88a2?mod=hp_LEAD_3) resumed in Washington D.C. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shed 233 points, or 0. Published:5/16/2023 1:08:35 PM
[Markets] The Dow's Tumble Continues The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 233 points, or 0.7%, Tuesday, underperforming both the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq Composite. The DJIA is on pace for its 10th decline in the last 12 trading days, the most declines in a 12-day period since September 30, 2022 when it also fell 10 out of 12 trading days, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Published:5/16/2023 9:40:57 AM
[Markets] Should You Buy the 3 Highest-Paying Dividend Stocks in the Dow? Whether or not you buy the highest-yielding Dow stocks depends on how you invest. Here is a look at each of them. Published:5/16/2023 8:25:29 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall After Retail Sales; Home Depot Slides On Sales Miss Dow Jones futures dropped Tuesday after U.S. retail sales numbers, as Dow Jones stock Home Depot sold off on a sales miss. Published:5/16/2023 7:42:35 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Retail Sales; Home Depot Slides On Sales Miss Dow Jones futures dropped Tuesday ahead U.S. retail sales numbers, as Dow Jones stock Home Depot sold off on a sales miss. Published:5/16/2023 7:12:12 AM
[Markets] This Bank-Lending Metric Is Sounding a Warning -- but Is Wall Street Listening? Over long periods, the stock market sits on a mountain top overlooking all other asset classes. On an annualized return basis, stocks have delivered the superior return compared to gold, oil, housing, certificates of deposit (CD), and Treasury bonds. For instance, last year saw the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and innovation-driven Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) fall into a bear market and deliver their worst single-year returns since the financial crisis in 2008. Published:5/16/2023 4:17:54 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Today: Index Inches Up Before Debt Ceiling Talks The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished higher by 0.14%, or 48 points, after see-sawing between gains and losses throughout the trading session. It’s the first time in six sessions that the Dow has finished in the green. President Biden is scheduled to meet with members of Congress Tuesday to negotiate raising the debt ceiling. Published:5/15/2023 4:25:28 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: McCarthy Says Sides Are 'Far Apart' On Debt Ceiling; AI Stock C3.ai Rockets 23% Dow Jones futures: House Speaker Kevin McCarthy said the sides are "far apart" on debt ceiling talks. AI stock C3.ai rocketed 23%. Published:5/15/2023 4:05:51 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Gains As McCarthy Gives Debt Ceiling Warning; Meta Stock Pops On Upgrade The Dow Jones rose as Kevin McCarthy gave a debt ceiling warning. Microsoft stock rose after a regulator boosted a deal. Meta stock popped. Published:5/15/2023 3:46:06 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow, S&P edge up as data, debt ceiling curb gains The S&P 500 and the Dow ended with modest gains on Monday after manufacturing data raised concerns about a slowing U.S. economy that could help bring down inflation amid ongoing debt ceiling negotiations, while a rise in Meta shares helped lift the Nasdaq. "This is always tough because we are in a period now where bad news is actually good news from a stocks standpoint and vice versa, but you still get the market reacting when you get a bad number because everybody then begins to worry about a recession," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. Published:5/15/2023 3:32:08 PM
[Markets] Dow snaps 5-session skid as investors await next debt-ceiling talks Dow snaps 5-session skid as investors await next debt-ceiling talks Published:5/15/2023 3:24:48 PM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Monday 5/15/2023 Wall Street drifted higher ahead of reports that will show how much a slowing economy is hurting what’s prevented a recession so far: solid spending by U.S. households. The Dow edged higher, while the Nasdaq rose 0.7%. The Nasdaq composite fell 80.47 points, or 0.7% to 12,365.21. Published:5/15/2023 3:24:48 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow, S&P end slightly firmer as data, debt ceiling curb gains The S&P 500 and the Dow ended with modest gains on Monday after manufacturing data raised concerns about a slowing U.S. economy amid ongoing debt ceiling negotiations, while a rise in Meta shares helped lift the Nasdaq. "This is always tough because we are in a period now where bad news is actually good news from a stocks standpoint and vice versa, but you still get the market reacting when you get a bad number because everybody then begins to worry about a recession," said Tim Ghriskey, senior portfolio strategist at Ingalls & Snyder in New York. Published:5/15/2023 3:11:19 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Barely Up As McCarthy Gives Debt Ceiling Warning; Activist Investor Targets This Growth Stock The Dow Jones fell as Kevin McCarthy issued a debt ceiling deadline. A growth stock soared on activist investor interest. Microsoft stock whipsawed despite a takeover boost. Published:5/15/2023 2:36:44 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Stalls As Retail Earnings Loom; Tesla Weak Ahead Of Vote On CEO Elon Musk's 'Key Person Risk' Dow Jones rolled over in early afternoon trading Monday. Retail earnings are due. Tesla's Musk faces 'key person risk' vote. Published:5/15/2023 1:02:45 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow muted on slowdown fears; Meta lifts Nasdaq The S&P 500 and the Dow were subdued in choppy trading on Monday after manufacturing data amplified worries of an economic slowdown, while gains in the shares of Meta boosted the Nasdaq. "What you're seeing is an indication that people are a little worried about the strength of the economy, perhaps going into a recession earlier than maybe expected," said Robert Pavlik, senior portfolio manager at Dakota Wealth. Published:5/15/2023 12:19:00 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flat As Debt Ceiling Talks Loom; Dow Leaders Mixed With Big Retail Reports On Deck Dow Jones fell in the first hour on Monday. Walmart, Home Depot and other retail stocks report this week. Published:5/15/2023 10:22:09 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As Debt Ceiling Talks Loom; Dow Leaders Under Pressure With Big Retail Reports On Deck Dow Jones fell in the first hour on Monday. Walmart, Home Depot and other retail stocks report this week. Published:5/15/2023 9:58:04 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls Ahead Of Biden-McCarthy Meeting; 6 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones dropped Monday ahead of Tuesday's planned meeting between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Published:5/15/2023 9:21:25 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Mixed as Debt Ceiling Clouds Loom Stocks wobbled after the market opened Monday as President Joe Biden gets ready to talk about the debt ceiling with congressional leaders. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 66 points or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was flat and the Nasdaq Composite was up 0. Published:5/15/2023 8:49:57 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise With Biden, McCarthy Meeting On Deck; 6 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures rose Monday ahead of Tuesday's planned meeting between President Joe Biden and House Speaker Kevin McCarthy. Published:5/15/2023 7:22:03 AM
[Markets] This Recession Indicator Hasn't Been Wrong in 57 Years, and It Has a Very Clear Message for Wall Street The stock market is a phenomenal wealth creator, if you give it time. Last year, the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), widely followed S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-driven Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), all fell into a bear market and respectively lost 9%, 19%, and 33% of their value by years' end. The answer to that question may be found in one of Wall Street's most-trusted indicators. Published:5/14/2023 4:22:04 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Today: Index Drops on Consumer Concern The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell almost 100 points, or 0.25% on Friday, sending the index lower for a second straight week as inflation and consumer sentiment weighed on the market. The Dow fell almost 1. Published:5/12/2023 3:56:34 PM
[Markets] Major Indexes Finish Session in the Red The stock market just couldn’t eke out a gain Friday, with all three major U.S. indexes ending in the red. Too many economic risks are rearing their ugly heads. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 9 points, while the S&P 500 fell 0. Published:5/12/2023 3:15:06 PM
[Markets] Dow, S&P 500 on Track to End Week Lower The stock market was all about Big Tech this week, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 faltered. The Dow and S&P 500 were both on pace to close Friday with weekly losses of 1.6% and 0.7%, respectively. Published:5/12/2023 2:26:53 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Near Session Lows. TSLA Falls After Musk Names NBCUniversal Exec Linda Yaccarino As Twitter Chief. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.3% and was only slightly off session lows at 1:30 p.m. ET Friday as the stock market softened heading into the weekend. The S&P 500 lost 0.5% at the hour while the Nasdaq lagged with a 0.7% loss. Volume on the NYSE and on the Nasdaq was lighter compared with the same time Thursday. Published:5/12/2023 1:08:20 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Drifts Lower, But Buyers Lift Chevron, Cisco Systems. First Solar Surges On Acquisition News. The Dow Jones Industrial Average turned lower along with other major stock indexes midday Friday, but First Solar shined brightly. Published:5/12/2023 11:15:23 AM
[Markets] Stocks forfeit gains after sentiment, inflation data: Stock market news today Stocks forfeited early gains on Friday as the Nasdaq looks to finish the week in green figures while the Dow and S&P 500 are set to lose ground this week. Published:5/12/2023 10:31:58 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Edges Higher, Led By Chevron, CAT Stock. Here's Why First Solar Stock Is Surging Today The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near the flatline in morning trade, but Caterpillar, Chevron and Cisco Systems were early leaders. Published:5/12/2023 9:54:51 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Reverses Lower On Inflation Survey. Tesla Stock Races Higher On Elon Musk Tweet. The Dow Jones reversed lower Friday on a hot inflation survey. Tesla stock rallied after Elon Musk tweeted that he had a new CEO for Twitter. Published:5/12/2023 9:18:45 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises Ahead Of Inflation Survey. Tesla Stock Races Higher On Elon Musk Tweet. The Dow Jones rose Friday ahead of a key inflation survey. Tesla stock rallied after Elon Musk tweeted that he had a new CEO for Twitter. Published:5/12/2023 8:54:11 AM
[Markets] Stocks open higher to kick off week's final trading day: Stock market news today Stocks opened higher to kick off Friday's trading session as the Nasdaq looks to add to gains and the Dow tries to pare losses suffered this week. Published:5/12/2023 8:42:41 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Inflation Survey. Tesla Stock Rallies On Elon Musk Tweet. Dow Jones futures rose Friday ahead of a key inflation survey. Tesla stock rallied after Elon Musk tweeted that he had a new CEO for Twitter. Published:5/12/2023 7:23:50 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Amid Divided Market Rally; Tesla Pops On Elon Musk's Twitter News Dow Jones futures: Google was strong, but the overall market was weak. Tesla popped as Elon Musk said he's found a Twitter CEO. Tesla also raised prices. Published:5/12/2023 5:46:01 AM
[Markets] Why Disney Dragged on the Dow and Peloton Hit the Skids Thursday The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) managed to buck the downward trend with a slight gain, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) was the big loser on the day, and the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) also gave up ground. Weighing the most on the Dow was Disney (NYSE: DIS), which fell sharply after reporting its latest financial results. The news for Peloton Interactive (NASDAQ: PTON) was arguably worse, as shareholders had to deal with yet another recall of its connected exercise equipment. Published:5/11/2023 5:45:48 PM
[Markets] Mouse-House Mullered, Banks Battered, But Mega-Cap Tech Turbocharged Mouse-House Mullered, Banks Battered, But Mega-Cap Tech Turbocharged

China wasn't pretty overnight, and then domestically, ugly jobless claims and cooler than expected producer price inflation offered some dovish hope (inflation weaker and growth weaker = less need for Fed tightening) but PacWest pissed in the punchbowl by admitting that 10% of their deposits left the building last week following the FRC take-down and the news about them seeking strategic options.

And regional banks are a wreck...

The latter news dominated the former (which should also have been dovish - increasing the odds of the 'emergency' cut scenario priced into Fed Funds) but it smashed stocks and bond yields lower (but the dollar higher? which hammered gold).

So dovish, dovish, and dovish... and rate-CUT odds are soaring...

Meanwhile, the debt-ceiling overhang remains with the front-end of the Bill curve utterly insanely dislocated...

Never mind all that... Nasdaq clung on to gains on the day as The Dow and Small Caps lagged...

Alphabet dragged the tech indices higher...

The Mouse-House was a bloodbath...

Before we leave equity land, VVIX is decoupling (to the upside) vs VIX and that didn't end well the last two times...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields were all lower on the day with the long-end outperforming on the day (2Y -1bps, 30Y -6bps). Yields are all lower on the week with the belly outperforming...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite the dovish headlines, the dollar rallied to one-week highs...

Source: Bloomberg

The South African Rand plunged to record lows after the US accused them of selling weapons to Russia...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin was dumped lower again, falling back below $27,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold spiked early then was puked again...because nothing says dump gold like a debt ceiling crisis, banking crisis, and dovish implications for The Fed...

Oil slipped again as China rebound and US jobs data dented demand hopes, sending WTI back to a $70 handle...

Finally, 2023 is starting to look a lot like 2011... can they hold out til August for the X-Date hammer to hit?

For the S&P...

Source: Bloomberg

And VIX...

Source: Bloomberg

And judging by USA CDS, it's different (and worse) this time...

Source: Bloomberg

But hey, keep buying that dip!

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/11/2023 - 16:00
Published:5/11/2023 3:09:52 PM
[Markets] Dow Falls as Banking Woes Persist Markets were in a funk Thursday, with most of the U.S. market down as banking woes weighed on investors. The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 221 points, or 0.7%, while the S&P 500 dropped 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite ticked 0. Published:5/11/2023 3:09:52 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As Cooling Economy Raises Rate Cut Chance; Big Tech Stocks Take Lead Dow Jones fell on cooling inflation and labor market while the yield curve remains inverted. Disney sold off while Big Tech took the lead. Published:5/11/2023 12:51:36 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow, S&P 500 weighed down by Disney; PacWest leads regional banks lower The Dow and the S&P 500 fell on Thursday, pressured by a drop in Disney shares after the company reported a fall in subscriber growth, while PacWest's latest woes sparked another rout in the regional banking sector. Walt Disney Co slid 7.9% and was the biggest loser on the benchmark S&P 500 index, following its quarterly report on Wednesday. Published:5/11/2023 11:58:32 AM
[Markets] Why the S&P 500 Is the Better Market Index—and How to Tweak the Dow to Your Liking A thought experiment in using the Dow divisor illustrates why the S&P 500 is the far more useful benchmark for most investors. Published:5/11/2023 11:46:19 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Off Lows As Disney Tumbles And Regional Banks Weigh; Google Parent Alphabet Mounts Key Level The Dow Jones Industrial Average bounced off lows midday Thursday as investors took their cues from resilient Big Tech and positive inflation data. Regional banks got pummeled after PacWest reported a deposit exodus. Published:5/11/2023 11:21:40 AM
[World] Market Snapshot: Dow down 300 points as Disney sinks, regional-bank troubles reemerge U.S. stocks were mostly lower on Thursday, with the Dow leading the way down as disappointing earnings from Disney weighed on the blue-chip index, while investors grappled with another selloff in shares of regional banks and the threat of a U.S. debt ceiling default. Published:5/11/2023 10:45:24 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As Disney+ Bleeds Losses, Regional Banks Crumble; Cathie Wood Stock Robinhood Rallies On Revenue Surge The Dow Jones Industrial Average lost ground early Thursday as regional bank contagion undermined positive inflation data. Dow Jones component Walt Disney plummeted nearly 9% after a weak report revealed fewer Disney+ subs than last quarter and continued red ink in streaming services. Published:5/11/2023 9:57:01 AM
[Markets] "It's Now Hard To See Any Accurate Information On Anything" "It's Now Hard To See Any Accurate Information On Anything"

By Michael Every of Rabobank

None so blind as those that will not see

There are none so blind as those who will not see: except those who see things that aren’t there because it also suits their book.

"Deflation and Fed rate cuts!" scream the markets selling us ‘transitory’ for two years. Yet US CPI, 0.4% m-o-m headline and core as expected, and 4.9% y-o-y headline, a rounding-error tick lower than consensus, and 5.5% core saw no evidence of that if you dug in rather than stripping whichever elements of high inflation you don’t like this month out. Durable and non-durable goods have stopped deflating on a GDP-style 3-month/3-month annualized basis, which means CPI needs to be led lower by services, which are not doing so ex-housing.

Imagine if agri analysts, instead of making careful, honest forecasts based on the complex factors impacting on supply and demand --and the realpolitik of what producers and consumers are both willing to hear-- made deliberately ridiculous forecasts just to push prices higher, so they would get paid more. That’s not how it works there, of course. But it is sadly how naïve economists with mean reverting models combine with shillltastic ‘Dow 36,000!’ types and 0DTE options nowadays.

At least the Wall Street Journal is honest enough to note: ‘We Might be Getting Used to High Inflation, and That’s Bad News: Companies’ ease with raising prices may mean more rapid increases are becoming entrenched’, while the ECB is muttering that it might need to keep hiking rates as far out as September. However, that still leads the same crowd to say the same things. For stocks, it means higher profits, and if rates go up, they have to come down again - because markets. For bonds, higher rates to fight inflation now means lower rates soon and lower long yields now - because markets.

Neither sees the bigger political-economy picture of why firms are able to raise prices, which speaks to a concentrated corporate power that can shrug off monetary policy. Nor are they seeing the inflationary geopolitical-economy backdrop inherent in:

And that’s just one day in 2023 – NONE OF WHICH IS BEING REFLECTED IN MARKET FORECASTS ABOUT WHAT THE FUTURE LOOKS LIKE. All they think about is when inflation comes down enough for the Fed to cut rates, because some people make more money that way, or sleep better, or both.

At the same time, those long only and forced to be long China by MSCI allocations, and Wall Street firms keen to growth their businesses there until the crackdown on due-diligence consultants started, are refusing to see that China’s problem is structural deflation due to over-supply of everything and not enough demand. Chinese CPI data today was only 0.1% y-o-y vs. 0.3% expected, so deflation looms. It’s already arrived in PPI at -3.6% y-o-y vs. -3.3% expected and -2.5% last month. In short, reopening was a nothing burger. The ‘shift to consumption’ sold for years has been mis-sold for year. China’s exports may be up again, but its import growth keeps slumping y-o-y: which the likes of the IMF are deliberately blind to seeing means China is a net DRAG on global GDP growth, not any kind of addition.

Yes, the West would kill for that kind of deflation right now. But because they have under-supply of everything and over-demand in services, they aren’t going to get it. As such --and given China will keep trying to export its way out-- the onus will be on the West to mirror China going forwards. That’s stagflationary or inflationary for longer, and higher geopolitical risks forever.

But of course not seeing, and deliberately seeing what’s not, reflect a larger human failing.

This week already saw former US president Trump ordered to pay a woman $5m for an alleged assault. That was rightly front-page news even in the financial press, and joins a long line of bad Trump headlines. Today, the same media are of course covering the arrest on alleged corruption charges of Republican Representative Santos. Yet they ignore the alleged corruption of the Biden family presented in Congress, as they did the Hunter Biden laptop in 2020, and the orchestrated campaign to ensure that story never surfaced. As US law professor Jonathon Turley notes, Congress “could produce eight heads in a duffle bag owned by Hunter and the media would still demand a luggage tag referencing the President.” That reminds me of the 2016 election, when someone stated that if video were found of Hillary Clinton eating babies, CNN would have decried Trump for eschewing eating nutritious children. And before the inevitable ‘whataboutism’ begins, Fox, Breitbart, etc., obviously do the same the other way round. It’s a universal problem.

That said, Trump was just on CNN for the first time in a long time and made one thing clear: he won’t back Ukraine further if he wins in 2024. Europe might suddenly need to start looking at their lofty rhetoric on values, at their feeble military muscle, and at the US opinion polls, if they still mean anything anymore.

That’s the point: it’s now hard to see any accurate information on anything. But we shouldn’t be blind to that uncomfortable fact, in life or in markets. Rather, we should open our eyes!

Tyler Durden Thu, 05/11/2023 - 10:40
Published:5/11/2023 9:45:36 AM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow, S&P 500 dragged down by Disney; PacWest leads regional bank rout The Dow and the S&P 500 fell on Thursday, pressured by a drop in Disney shares after the company reported a fall in subscriber growth, while PacWest's latest woes sparked another rout in the regional banking sector. Walt Disney Co slid 8.4% and was the biggest loser on the benchmark S&P 500 index, following its quarterly report on Wednesday. Published:5/11/2023 9:26:51 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Slides 350 Points After Cool Inflation Data, Rising Jobless Claims; PacWest Plunges 30% On Falling Deposits The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 350 points Thursday on cool inflation data and surging weekly initial jobless claims. PacWest plunged 30% on falling deposits. Published:5/11/2023 9:01:40 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Lower After Latest Data The stock market opened lower, even as another lower-than-expected inflation result hit the wires. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is down 265 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 is down 0.4% and the Nasdaq is down 0.1%. With lower cost increases, companies are less incentivized to lift selling prices. Published:5/11/2023 8:49:00 AM
[Markets] US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Dow, S&P 500 open lower as Disney drags The Dow and the S&P 500 opened lower on Thursday, pressured by a drop in Disney shares after the company reported a fall in subscriber growth, while a drop in PacWest's deposits set off another rout in the regional banking sector. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 147.44 points, or 0.44%, at the open to 33,383.89. The S&P 500 opened lower by 5.40 points, or 0.13%, at 4,132.24, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 14.82 points, or 0.12%, to 12,321.26 at the opening bell. Published:5/11/2023 8:43:00 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls After Cool Inflation Data, Rising Jobless Claims; PacWest Plunges 25% On Falling Deposits The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped Thursday on cool inflation data and surging weekly initial jobless claims. PacWest plunged 25% on falling deposits. Published:5/11/2023 8:37:07 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall After Inflation Data, Jobless Claims; PacWest Plunges 25% On Falling Deposits Dow Jones futures dropped Thursday after key inflation data and weekly initial jobless claims. PacWest plunged 25% on falling deposits. Published:5/11/2023 7:54:55 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Inflation Data, Jobless Claims; PacWest Plunges 25% On Falling Deposits Dow Jones futures dropped Thursday ahead of key inflation data and weekly initial jobless claims. PacWest plunged 25% on falling deposits. Published:5/11/2023 7:36:09 AM
[Markets] U.S. Stock Futures Extend Post-CPI Gains With More Inflation Data Ahead Stock futures extended Wednesday’s gains across much of the market on Thursday amid optimism about data showing inflation continues to cool, though the Dow was on track to lag again. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average retreated less than 10, or 0.1%, after the index shed 30 points on Wednesday to finish at 33,531. S&P 500 futures gained 0.1%, with contracts tracking the tech-heavy Nasdaq also up 0.6%. Published:5/11/2023 6:25:14 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Today: Index (and Inflation) Slip Salesforce led a tech march in the Dow, while American Express and Visa fell on consumer credit worries. Published:5/10/2023 4:21:48 PM
[Markets] Dow loses grip on gains as Nasdaq finishes up over 1% after inflation reading Dow loses grip on gains as Nasdaq finishes up over 1% after inflation reading Published:5/10/2023 3:44:54 PM
[Markets] Nasdaq up nearly 100 points at midday, with Dow at risk of triple-digit decline Nasdaq up nearly 100 points at midday, with Dow at risk of triple-digit decline Published:5/10/2023 11:05:52 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On CPI Inflation Data; Airbnb Plunges 14% On Earnings The Dow Jones rallied Wednesday on key inflation data, with the release of the consumer price index. Airbnb plunged on earnings. Published:5/10/2023 9:14:46 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Reverses Lower On CPI Inflation Data; Airbnb Plunges 14% On Earnings The Dow Jones reversed lower Wednesday on key inflation data, with the release of the consumer price index. Airbnb plunged on earnings. Published:5/10/2023 9:07:26 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Reverse After CPI Inflation Data; Airbnb Plunges 14% On Earnings Dow Jones futures reversed Wednesday after key inflation data, with the release of the consumer price index. Airbnb plunged on earnings. Published:5/10/2023 7:41:08 AM
[Markets] Stock Market Dips Ahead of Inflation Data CARD Just minutes before the release of inflation figures, the stock market is dipping slightly. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 61 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 has fallen 0.1% and the Nasdaq Composite has declined 0. Published:5/10/2023 7:27:15 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of CPI Inflation Data; Airbnb Plunges 14% On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped Wednesday ahead of key inflation data, with the release of the consumer price index. Airbnb plunged on earnings. Published:5/10/2023 7:20:22 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As McCarthy Makes Debt Ceiling Pledge. PayPal Stock Plummets On This. The Dow Jones struggled as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy made a debt ceiling pledge. Palantir stock soared on AI buzz. PayPal stock dived. Published:5/9/2023 3:51:01 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flat As McCarthy Makes Debt Ceiling Pledge. Palantir Stock Rockets On AI Claim. The Dow Jones struggled as House Speaker Kevin McCarthy made a debt ceiling pledge. Palantir stock soared on AI buzz. PayPal stock dived. Published:5/9/2023 2:27:32 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Stumbles As Fed Governor Sees 'Orderly' Slowdown; PayPal Plunges While Software Stocks Rise The Dow Jones stumbled as a Fed governor stepped to the podium. PayPal fell after earnings. Palo Alto Networks and Workday rose with earnings due. Published:5/9/2023 10:15:48 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Stumbles As Fed Gov Sees 'Orderly' Slowdown; PayPal Plunges While Software Stocks Rise The Dow Jones stumbled as a Fed governor stepped to the podium. Paypal fell after earnings. Palo Alto Networks and Workday rose with earnings due. Published:5/9/2023 10:09:31 AM
[Markets] Dow industrials briefly turn positive as Ryanair deal powers Boeing surge Dow industrials briefly turn positive as Ryanair deal powers Boeing surge Published:5/9/2023 9:41:54 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls Ahead Of Biden Debt Ceiling Meeting; PayPal Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Tuesday ahead of President Joe Biden's meeting with Congress on the debt ceiling deadline. Published:5/9/2023 9:35:43 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Reverses Ahead Of Biden Debt Ceiling Meeting; PayPal Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones reversed higher Tuesday ahead of President Joe Biden's meeting with Congress on the debt ceiling deadline. Published:5/9/2023 9:06:53 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Biden Debt Ceiling Meeting; PayPal Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped more than 125 points Tuesday ahead of President Joe Biden's meeting with Congress on the debt ceiling deadline. Published:5/9/2023 7:27:05 AM
[Markets] Is It Time to Buy the Dow Jones' 3 Worst-Performing April Stocks? The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) may have logged a 2.5% gain last month, but that doesn't mean all 30 of its components followed suit. With that as the backdrop, here's a closer look at the Dow's biggest losers from April, and some thoughts regarding their attractiveness in the wake of their sell-offs. Last month's biggest losers among the Dow's components were Caterpillar (NYSE: CAT), Intel (NASDAQ: INTC), and Cisco Systems (NASDAQ: CSCO), which fell 4.4%, 4.9%, and 9.6%, respectively. Published:5/9/2023 4:37:10 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Today: Index Flat on Inflation Lull Disney tops the box office and the Dow with Guardians of the Galaxy, but bad press helped push 3M lower. Published:5/8/2023 4:08:59 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips As Zscaler Rockets; 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Near Entries As Berkshire Gains The Dow Jones was flat. Disney stock rose amid further escalation in its Ron DeSantis fight. A trio of Warren Buffett stocks neared entries. Published:5/8/2023 3:52:00 PM
[Markets] Dow Slips in Mixed Day for Markets CARD The stock market ended without much of a move Monday, as traders braced for key economic data later in the week. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished down 56 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite ended up 0. Published:5/8/2023 3:13:08 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips Even As Disney Stock Jumps; 3 Warren Buffett Stocks Near Buy Points As Berkshire Gains The Dow Jones was flat. Disney stock rose amid further escalation in its Ron DeSantis fight. A trio of Warren Buffett stocks neared entries. Published:5/8/2023 2:38:26 PM
[Markets] Why The Nasdaq Keeps Outperforming CARD The stock market wasn’t going anywhere Monday, but the Nasdaq Composite continued to perform better than the other indexes. By Monday afternoon, the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 were down a tick, while the Nasdaq was about flat. Published:5/8/2023 1:48:57 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Leader Visa, 3 Other Top Stocks Flash Buy Signals Dow Jones leader Visa, along with payment giant Mastercard and Dynatrace, are in fresh buy zones in today's stock market action. Published:5/8/2023 1:29:14 PM
[Markets] Stock Market Sleepy And Dopey Ahead Of Inflation Report; Walt Disney Earnings On Tap The stock market posted tiny losses into Monday afternoon, ahead of this week's market movers. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway reported Q1 results Saturday. Bank stocks got a boost. Dow Jones component Walt Disney gained 2. Published:5/8/2023 12:57:15 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As PacWest Soars On Dividend Cut. Occidental Drops On Warren Buffett Comments. The Dow Jones fell modestly Monday, as PacWest soared on a dividend cut. Occidental dropped on Warren Buffett's comments. Published:5/8/2023 8:46:54 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise As PacWest Soars On Dividend Cut. Occidental Drops On Warren Buffett Comments. Dow Jones futures rose modestly Monday, as PacWest soared on a dividend cut. Occidental dropped on Warren Buffett comments. Published:5/8/2023 7:26:49 AM
[Markets] Stocks Are Holding Steady Ahead of Busy Week The stock market is trying to eke out a gain Monday, with a key inflation report looming this week. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures have gained 78 points, or 0.2%, while S&P 500 futures have risen 0.2% and Nasdaq Composite futures were flat. “Futures are slightly higher following a mostly quiet weekend of news as markets look ahead to Wednesday’s CPI [consumer price index],” wrote Sevens Report’s Tom Essaye. Published:5/8/2023 7:09:16 AM
[Markets] For Only the 4th Time in 50 Years, This Banking Metric Is Forecasting a Big Move in the Stock Market When examined over decades, investors would struggle to find a more consistent wealth creator and inflation outperformer than the stock market. Following a fantastic 2021 that saw the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-powered Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) explode to new highs, 2022 featured all three indexes plummeting (at least briefly) into a bear market. The Nasdaq Composite was hit particularly hard, with the index losing 33% of its value last year. Published:5/7/2023 4:20:44 AM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow has best day since Jan. 6 after Apple rally, jobs data U.S. stocks rallied on Friday, with the Dow posting its biggest one-day percentage gain since Jan. 6, as shares of Apple surged more than 4% after upbeat results and U.S. jobs data pointed to a resilient labor market. The iPhone maker's shares hit their highest level in about nine months, and the stock ended up 4.7% in its biggest daily percentage gain since November. Published:5/5/2023 4:09:30 PM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Friday 5/5/2023 The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 550 points and the Nasdaq composite tacked on 2.2%. The Nasdaq composite rose 269.01 points, or 2.2% to 12,235.41. The Russell 2000 index of smaller companies rose 41.07 points, or 2.4%, to 1,759.88. Published:5/5/2023 3:37:00 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Bounces Off Key Level After Stunning Jobs Report. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Reports Saturday. The Dow Jones rose after strong jobs data on Friday. This regional bank stock rebounded with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway on deck. Published:5/5/2023 3:31:18 PM
[Markets] Stocks Rise After Jobs Report CARD Stocks closed in the green on Friday afternoon, after the release of a stellar jobs report. Markets took a break from banking woes—and snapped a four-day losing streak. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 547 points, or 1. Published:5/5/2023 3:19:40 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Shakes Off Rate Jitters, Retakes Key Level. Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Set For Big Saturday. The Dow Jones rose after strong jobs data on Friday. This regional bank stock rebounded with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway on deck. Published:5/5/2023 2:24:30 PM
[Markets] Stocks Set to Snap 4-Day Losing Streak, but Still Down on the Week CARD Zions Bancorp N.A. Stocks raced higher Friday afternoon, as oil rallies and regional bank shares were climbing. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 461 points, or 1.4%. The S&P 500 was up 17%, and the Nasdaq Composite was up 2%. Published:5/5/2023 1:49:34 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises As Regional Banks Rebound. COIN Rises With Warren Buffett's Berkshire Earnings Due. Dow Jones rose after strong jobs data on Friday. Regional bank stock rebounded with Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway on deck. Published:5/5/2023 1:05:17 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rockets Higher After Strong Jobs Report. Bullish Earnings Movers Include Apple, DraftKings, Coinbase. The Dow Jones soared more than 400 points in morning trade after another strong jobs report. Solid iPhone sales fueled a big gain for Apple. Published:5/5/2023 9:53:06 AM
[Markets] Dow jumps 440 points as U.S. stocks seek to put end to four-session skid Dow jumps 440 points as U.S. stocks seek to put end to four-session skid Published:5/5/2023 9:38:22 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Surges 450 Points On Strong Jobs Report. AAPL Stock Jumps On Earnings. The Dow Jones rallied 450 points on a strong April jobs report. AAPL stock jumped, while Carvana, DraftKings and Square were other key earnings movers. Published:5/5/2023 8:49:19 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Higher After April Jobs Data CARD Stocks opened higher as investors saw areas of weakness within the labor market despite a strong headline number. The Dow Jones Industrial Average opened up 386 points, or 1.2%. The S&P 500 was up 1. Published:5/5/2023 8:41:16 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rally 200 Points On Strong Jobs Report. AAPL Stock Jumps On Earnings. Dow Jones futures rallied 175 points on a strong April jobs report. AAPL stock jumped, while Carvana, DraftKings and Square were other key earnings movers. Published:5/5/2023 8:05:22 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Are Rising After Strong April Jobs Growth CARD Stock futures held earlier gains after a stronger-than-expected April jobs report. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures was up 181 points, or 0.5%. S&P 500 futures gained 0.7% and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0. Published:5/5/2023 7:49:26 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Jobs Report. AAPL Stock Jumps On Strong Earnings Dow Jones futures rallied 175 points ahead of the imminent April jobs report. AAPL stock jumped, while Carvana, DraftKings and Square were other key earnings movers. Published:5/5/2023 7:21:09 AM
[Markets] Major Indexes Fall for 4th Straight Session CARD Stocks fell Thursday after banking woes and the Fed’s rate hike left investors jittery. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 286 points, or little under 1%. The S&P 500 slipped 0.7%, and the Nasdaq Composite was 0. Published:5/4/2023 3:08:43 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Tumbles As Regional Banks Crumble Ahead Of Apple Report; These Cruise Ship Operators Forecast Big Profits The Dow Jones Industrial Average failed to bounce with other market indexes into Thursday's noon hour. Investors debated Fed Chair Jerome Powell's data-driven comments about interest rates and the economic outlook while gold took off, testing historic resistance. Published:5/4/2023 11:33:44 AM
[Markets] Stocks Dive as Banking Fears Trigger Flight To Safety CARD The major indexes Thursday fell deeper into red as the regional bank turmoil escalated despite assurances from the Federal Reserve on the stability of the banking system. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 348 points, or 1%. Published:5/4/2023 10:17:03 AM
[Markets] Disney, Boeing, financials among top decliners as blue-chip Dow skids 300 points Disney, Boeing, financials among top decliners as blue-chip Dow skids 300 points Published:5/4/2023 9:52:37 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Slides 325 Points After Jobless Claims; PacWest Crashes 49% On Possible Sale; Apple Earnings Due The Dow Jones dropped 325 points Thursday on rising weekly jobless claims. Regional bank PacWest shares crashed 49% on a possible sale. Published:5/4/2023 9:29:05 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Slides 250 Points After Jobless Claims; PacWest Crashes 49% On Possible Sale; Apple Earnings Due The Dow Jones dropped 250 points Thursday after rising weekly jobless claims. Regional bank PacWest shares crashed 49% on a possible sale. Published:5/4/2023 9:04:47 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall After Jobless Claims; PacWest Crashes 45% On Possible Sale Dow Jones futures dropped Thursday after weekly jobless claims. Regional bank PacWest shares crashed 45% on a possible sale. Published:5/4/2023 7:39:40 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Jobless Claims; PacWest Crashes 45% On Possible Sale Dow Jones futures dropped Thursday ahead of weekly jobless claims. Regional bank PacWest shares crashed 45% on a possible sale. Published:5/4/2023 7:27:54 AM
[Markets] A 68-Year History of Monetary Policy Changes Suggests a Big Move to Come for Stocks Over long stretches, Wall Street is one of the greatest wealth creators on the planet. Last year, the arrow pointed decisively lower for Wall Street. The ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and innovation-driven Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) all entered a bear market and produced their worst full-year returns since the Great Recession. Published:5/4/2023 4:23:41 AM
[Markets] Why the Federal Reserve's Move Sent Stocks Falling Wednesday The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) and S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) suffered somewhat steeper losses, approaching 1%, but the damage to the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) was less than half a percent in the end. Earnings season is approaching its peak, but most investors were squarely focused on the end of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting to discuss interest rates. The move the central bank made was widely expected, but investors nevertheless seemed disappointed by some of the nuances of what Fed chair Jerome Powell said in the conference call following the decision. Published:5/3/2023 4:55:31 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls On Peak-Rate Uncertainty; These Stocks Move On Earnings The Dow Jones rose ahead of a Fed rate hike. Fed Chief Powell's comments are on watch. Eli Lilly surged after reporting a breakthrough Alzheimer's treatment. Published:5/3/2023 3:32:48 PM
[Markets] Stocks & Bond Yields Tumble On 'Hawkish Pause'; Gold Gains As Crude Collapses Stocks & Bond Yields Tumble On 'Hawkish Pause'; Gold Gains As Crude Collapses

'Good' headline macro news (strong ADP and ISM Services beat) was somewhat trumped by 'bad' macro news (inflationary pressures re-accelerating under the hood)... all of which do nothing at all to support The Fed's 'easing' anytime soon (strong jobs and resurgent inflation).

Of course, today was all about Powell and his pals who signaled a 'hawkish pause' (despite the market's very dovish beliefs). June rate-hike odds rose...

Source: Bloomberg

Now it gets interesting...

Source: Bloomberg

With Real Rates positive for the first time since 2019...

Source: Bloomberg

Powell's comments did nothing at all to help (unusually):

  • POWELL: SENIOR LOAN SURVEY CONSISTENT WITH OTHER DATA

  • POWELL: POSSIBLY AT SUFFICIENTLY RESTRICTIVE LEVEL, MAY NOT BE FAR OFF

A recession is coming but don't expect rate-cuts...

  • POWELL: POSSIBLE WE'LL HAVE WHAT WOULD BE A MILD RECESSION

Yield curve gives 94% odds of a recession within 12 months...

Don't believe the market's dovish hype!

  • POWELL: FOMC'S INFLATION OUTLOOK DOESN'T SUPPORT RATE CUTS (the 'inflation is transitory' outlook?)

And that spooked stocks lower (not helped by Powell's hints at how bad next week's SLOOS data will be). Small Caps managed to hold on to gains but the S&P, Dow, and Nasdaq tumbled...

0DTE traders were betting on the downside in a big way today and took profits after the post-Powell puke...

Big reversal in "most shorted" stocks today (which helps explain the early gains in Small Caps)...

Source: Bloomberg

Regional banks puked after Powell said the banking system was sound and resilient...

VIX1D remains notably higher than VIX...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields tumbled once again today with the belly of the curve outperforming (5Y -11bps, 30Y -2bps). It's been quite a week in bonds already...

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y extended below 4.00%

Source: Bloomberg

The STIRs curve adjusted (small) hawkishly in the shortest end but notably more dovish next year on...

Source: Bloomberg

The Dollar dived on the day to two-week lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin chopped around but ended marginally lower...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold rallied on the day (marginally)...

But crude was clubbed like a baby seal with WTI tumbling to a $67 handle intraday, dramatically below the pre-OPEC+ level...

Finally, the market remains dramatically more dovish than The Fed and Powell throughly rejected that view today...

And WTF is Powell talking about claiming that the banking system is sound and resilient and is stabilizing...

2023 bank failures are now larger than 2008 and 2009 combined...

And deposit outflows continue from large and small banks...

Sorry Joe ol' pal, jawboning's not gonna out enough lipstick on this pig to fix this shitshow...

It's on you mate! The market is demanding cuts (and pricing them in) and you just made it worse.

Jeff Gundlach gets the last word: "...markets for risk assets are too complacent."

Tyler Durden Wed, 05/03/2023 - 16:01
Published:5/3/2023 3:07:17 PM
[Markets] Stocks Extend Losses as Fed’s Next Actions Come in Focus CARD Stocks plunged Wednesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates by a quarter point and signaled rate cuts are off the table in 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 270 points, or 0. Published:5/3/2023 3:07:17 PM
[Markets] Stocks Falter. Fed Doesn’t See Prospect of Rate Cuts. CARD Stocks fell into the negative territory after Fed Chairman Jerome Powell closed the door on rate cuts in 2023. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 164 points, or 0.6%. The S&P 500 was down 0. Published:5/3/2023 2:48:38 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls, Indexes Fade As Powell Indicates 'Ongoing Assessment' On Rates The Dow Jones rose ahead of a Fed rate hike. Fed Chief Powell's comments are on watch. Eli Lilly surged after reporting a breakthrough Alzheimer's treatment. Published:5/3/2023 2:30:16 PM
[Markets] Markets Waver After Powell Says Fed 'Prepared to Do More' CARD The major benchmark indexes wavered after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell indicated that future rate increases were still possible. The Dow Jones Industrial Average shifted between negative and positive territory, down 13 points to 0. Published:5/3/2023 2:15:44 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises With Fed Rate Hike Due; Eli Lilly Hits All-Time Highs On Alzheimer's Breakthrough Dow Jones rose ahead of Fed rate hike. Fed Powell's comments are on watch. Eli Lilly surged after a breakthrough for Alzheimer's treatment. Published:5/3/2023 12:56:37 PM
[Markets] Stocks Are Steady Ahead of Fed's Rate Decision CARD The major stock indexes were unchanged hours before the Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision. Around noon, the S&P 500 index was up less than 0.1%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0. Published:5/3/2023 11:02:33 AM
[Markets] Stocks Choppy Ahead of Fed Decision CARD The major indexes swayed Wednesday after two straight days of declines as markets braced for another interest-rate hike from the Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 76 points, or 0. Published:5/3/2023 10:43:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Fed Decision, Powell Comments. AMD Dives On Earnings. The Dow Jones rose Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve rate decision and Fed Chair Powell's comments. AMD dived on earnings. Published:5/3/2023 9:07:54 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Likely Fed Rate Hike, Apple Earnings, Jobs Report Dow Jones stock futures were lower ahead of this week's Fed rate hike decision, Apple earnings and pivotal jobs report. Published:5/1/2023 5:43:21 PM
[Markets] These 2 Stocks Could Move Markets on Tuesday The declines for the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), and S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) were quite modest, though, as most investors seemed poised to wait for more guidance from the Federal Reserve later in the week. A pair of companies reported financial results immediately after the closing bell, and their shares promptly moved in opposite directions. Sprouts Farmers Market (NASDAQ: SFM) got a nice bounce, but Arista Networks (NYSE: ANET) wasn't as fortunate. Published:5/1/2023 5:02:48 PM
[Markets] Stock Market Today: Dow Jones Futures In Focus Ahead Of Likely Fed Rate Hike, Apple Earnings, Jobs Report Dow Jones stock futures were little changed ahead of this week's Fed rate hike decision, Apple earnings and pivotal jobs report. Published:5/1/2023 4:30:14 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips As Onsemi Earnings Boost Nvidia; JPMorgan Tests Entry As It Eats First Republic The Dow Jones struggled. The battle between Ron DeSantis and Disney took a fresh twist. JPMorgan jumped as it snapped up First Republic. Published:5/1/2023 3:42:53 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips As Stocks Struggle; JPMorgan Stock Pops As It Gobbles Up First Republic The Dow Jones was struggling. The battle between Ron DeSantis and Disney took a fresh twist. JPMorgan jumped as it snapped up First Republic. Published:5/1/2023 2:49:04 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Banking Giant JPMorgan Breaks Out On First Republic Deal. Three Others To Watch. Dow Jones banking giant JPMorgan Chase is breaking out past a new buy point following its purchase of failed bank First Republic. Published:5/1/2023 12:47:02 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P, Dow edge higher as JPMorgan gains; Fed meet in focus The S&P 500 and the Dow edged higher on Monday as JPMorgan rose after the bank said it will buy most of First Republic Bank's assets, while caution prevailed ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision later this week. JPMorgan Chase & Co's shares rose 3.1% to a near two-month high after the deal was announced earlier in the day. Published:5/1/2023 11:49:40 AM
[Markets] Stock Market Stuck In Neutral; Cruise Ship Stock Probes Breakout In Heavy Volume Stock market indexes made little progress Monday morning, trading choppy into midday. Norwegian Cruise Line surged into the 200-day moving average in heavy volume after earnings and could break out. Dow Jones banking giant JPMorgan Chase was a white knight for First Republic Bank. Published:5/1/2023 11:37:51 AM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow steady on boost from JPMorgan; Fed meet in focus The S&P 500 and the Dow edged higher as JPMorgan shares rose after the lender said it will buy most of First Republic Bank's assets, while investors refrained from making big bets ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy decision this week. JPMorgan Chase & Co's shares rose 2.8% on Monday to nearly a two-month high after the deal was announced earlier in the day. Published:5/1/2023 9:46:47 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises As JPMorgan Buys Failed First Republic Bank; FRC Stock Crashes 45% The Dow Jones rose Monday morning, as JPMorgan Chase bought failed First Republic Bank. FRC stock crashed 45%. Published:5/1/2023 8:46:11 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall: JPMorgan Buys Failed First Republic Bank; FRC Stock Plunges 45% Dow Jones futures fell slightly Monday morning, as JPMorgan Chase bought failed First Republic Bank. FRC stock plunged 45%. Published:5/1/2023 7:38:35 AM
[Markets] How Long Until The US Is Put On Downgrade Watch? How Long Until The US Is Put On Downgrade Watch?

By Peter Tchir of Academy Securities

Smooth Sailing Ahead?

The market started off rough and looked incredibly shaky on Wednesday. However, a great performance by MSFT was one of the main things that held the broad markets together and they ended the week incredibly strong.

There were some interesting reactions last week. FRC dropped from $14.24 to $3.50, but KRE (a regional bank ETF) finished virtually unchanged and seemed to be able to shrug off the issues dragging FRC stock down. That sort of resilience is encouraging as it seems like the market is in the process of sorting out the banks that have been affected (from the rest). Yes, there are still issues with what banks may have to pay on deposits to retain customers, but this was very encouraging. I’m finding myself re-reading I Like Mid Banks, I Cannot Lie because we have learned a lot since that was published. I’m more encouraged than I have been in weeks in large part due to how we traded this week.

Inventories

GDP was weaker than expected, but much of that can be attributed to inventories declining. Since the inventory overhang (or even glut) has been a major concern (Moving Beyond Banks), this was encouraging news. Seeing GDP shrink because we are draining inventories is actually a positive because it sets the stage for future growth.

Having said that, two questions still need to be answered:

  • Have inventories been reduced enough to start creating demand for increased production or are they still far too high? I’m leaning towards the latter.
  • Were companies really able to sell a lot more (close to full price) or were they just reducing shipments so fast that even “mediocre” sales helped? There is some evidence that it was the former, which would be good, but the evidence is mixed at best.

While the inventory news was encouraging, the bar has been set quite low on that front, so I wouldn’t expect smooth sailing from here.

The Consumer

Consumption data looked decent. If we look at new home sales, durable goods, and personal consumption data, all of this points to a consumer that is still spending.

This is in contrast to increasing (but still manageable) delinquency rates on auto loans and credit cards. Yes, they are higher, but they are still below pre-Covid historical levels (at least for the data series that I’ve been tracking). However, credit card debt has been building, but not to alarming levels.

We have all become used to never betting against the American consumer’s willingness to consume, and maybe we have another round of high spending to look forward to, but I struggle to see that.

I don’t believe that the consumer will be a big tailwind for markets or the economy and I expect to see weaker data as layoffs start to take effect.

Inflation

Inflation seems to be stabilizing around levels that are “too high” but not “alarmingly too high”. Right around 4% is higher than the Fed (and incumbent politicians) would like, but it is in the realm of “manageable” and heading in the right direction.
As someone who expected deflation concerns to mount in the first half of this year, I am not worried about inflation rising. Yes, we had an uptick in reported data after “disinflation” gained some traction in January. However, we will learn that we are still headed down a path to lower inflation, because we were set on that path months ago when hikes were started (see
Mistaking Hard for Soft Landing).

Not a Short Squeeze

While markets did very well on Thursday (and even on Friday), there was less of a “squeezy” feel than in some prior rallies. I’ve seen some charts indicating that in some sectors, the “most shorted” names underperformed significantly (not what you would expect in a “short squeeze”). We already discussed FRC versus KRE, but ARKK (another crowd favorite) was down while QQQ (Nasdaq 100) powered higher and beat the Dow and S&P 500 on the week. If you told me that the Nasdaq 100 was going to be up more than other indices, I’d have guessed that ARKK would outperform (it didn’t). Similarly, the Russell 2000 was down on the week, pointing to some selectivity.

This price action is encouraging to me, because it isn’t just a bunch of bears getting stopped out. It is indicative of “new risks” being added with a degree of thoughtfulness that we didn’t see in many of last year’s “ripfests”.

M2

While not something that I pay close attention to, as Tom Keene exposed on Bloomberg TV (at the 1 hour 38 minute mark), the recent decline has been noticed by many people.

The Fed balance sheet, which I do watch, has resumed its decline as banks are using less of the emergency lending facilities and quantitative tightening is taking its toll.

This will continue to be a headwind.

The Fed

We get the FOMC on Wednesday, which all seems to boil down to the messaging that will be provided during the press conference.

Consensus is for a 25 basis point hike with talk of a pause. Since I don’t think that they should have hiked at the last meeting (or at the last couple of meetings), I can’t see why they won’t raise rates 25 bps (so let’s price this in). I also think that the “pause” is so long overdue that I’d be shocked if we don’t get some indication of this.

When I pull up WIRP it shows a high of 5.09%, so basically one and done, but isn’t that priced in?

Even as someone who thinks that a recession is well on its way, I struggle to see how the market is pricing in a better than 50% chance of a cut by September.

Expect messaging to be “higher for longer”, which I’m not sure the market is on board with.

Jobs

This week will be all about jobs, starting with JOLTS on Monday. Can they continue to surprise? Can we start to trust ADP (which was revised) more than the NFP data (where response rates are abysmally low)? Will some of the headlines about layoffs translate into weaker published data?

Finally, and maybe most importantly, will we start to focus on jobs at a granular level and see a disturbing trend (from an economic standpoint) that low-paying jobs are abundant, but middle to high-end jobs are being cut?

We continue to be in the camp that the negative economic impact won’t be a function of job losses, it will be a function of which jobs are lost (i.e., # of jobs multiplied by pay for those jobs will be the real metric to identify and react to).

Debt Ceiling

Will the Republicans’ successful vote bring Biden to the table for serious negotiations or will both sides dig in their heels because they are confident that they have the support of the voters? Or at least can they get the voters to blame the other side for any failure to pay?

When I look at 1-year U.S. government CDS (which I rarely look at), I see that it indicates a small (but increasing) probability of some sort of a “failure to pay” credit event.

As discussed in recent reports, I take a very simplistic view that given where some longer-dated Treasuries trade (70 cents on the dollar), a failure to pay event will create a 30 point gain for holders of CDS. With a price of 1.75 points, that implies slightly less than a 6% chance of a failure to pay. The CDS is much more complex than that, but I think that this sums up the basic logistics here. No one is buying U.S. CDS because they think that the holders of any debt (that isn’t paid) won’t get paid in full with interest. They are buying it in hopes of a credit event occurring that opens up the “cheapest to deliver” bonds.

So, it is wonky, but important.

I expect rough seas on the debt ceiling front!

It is possible that one (or more) of the NRSRO (Nationally Recognized Statistical Ratings Organizations) will decide to put the U.S. credit rating on credit watch for a potential downgrade. However, since most mandates that I see treat U.S. Treasury risk as its own asset class (i.e., not dependent on rating, unlike what we see in mandates for credit and structured products investors), I don’t think that any potential downgrade would move markets. Any Treasury sell-off linked to a downgrade headline should be bought. However, I would be in no rush to buy any corresponding equity sell-off.

From Made in China to Made by China

We wrote about this in Locking in Some Themes and discussed it in the aforementioned Bloomberg TV interview.

On Tuesday May 2nd, at 1:00 pm ET, Academy will be hosting a webinar on China’s Recent Geopolitical Successes and Influence (please use this link to register). Rachel Washburn will lead a conversation with General Marks, General Walsh, and myself on China’s recent ventures into the global political arena. We will examine what it means for our relationship with not just China, but also other countries and regions. China is certainly improving how it wields its influence on the global stage.

I’d be shocked if questions surrounding “reserve currency” don’t come up!

Bottom Line

A bit of a broken record.

Remaining at -4 on equities on a scale of -10 to 10. Based on price action on Thursday and Friday, I’d move myself closer to neutral or even bullish, but Wednesday felt so awful that I cannot bring myself to make the change to neutral so quickly. However, I certainly cannot get more “beared up” after the past couple of days. I am concerned that I am fighting the “one last hike and done” rally, but so much of that seems to be priced in that I’m willing to take that risk.

On rates, I expect that Powell and the Fed will try to push the “higher for longer” pitch. That will be bad for the front-end (say out to 3-years), so I’d expect yields to increase there. With the 10-year already at a measly 3.4%, it is difficult to imagine it going much lower (back to the hawkish Fed being bad for the front-end, but good for the long-end). But given how much everyone seems to hate the bond market here (apparently record short positions amongst speculators), I won’t bet on much higher longer-dated yields.

I think that the 2s vs 10s yield curve will become more inverted (again).

On the credit side of things, I still like to err on the side of caution. IG over high yield and high yield over leveraged loans (viewing it as big cap vs secured, but not necessarily well secured). In addition, I favor higher credit quality versus lower credit quality tranches on the structured products side of things.

I’d keep buying banks that trade cheap here, though much (if not all) of that trade has already disappeared.

Basically, on credit, I don’t see much downside to spreads (but very little upside), which is often an okay time to give up some potential returns in hopes of a cheapening event (that would likely occur if I’m correct on stocks).

With summer fast approaching, clear sailing would be nice, but while that’s a possibility, my current forecast is for more of the same choppy (but not dangerous) seas, which we just have to make our way through.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/30/2023 - 11:56
Published:4/30/2023 11:21:11 AM
[Markets] U.S. Money Supply Is Doing Something It Hasn't Done in 90 Years, and It May Signal a Big Move for Stocks The ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-driven Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) all entered respective bear markets and produced their worst full-year returns (in 2022) since the Great Recession. More specifically, they leave everyday investors wondering when the bear market downturn will end. To be crystal clear, there isn't a metric, indicator, or tool that can predict with concrete accuracy when a bear market will begin, how long it'll last, or how steep the decline will be. Published:4/30/2023 4:14:01 AM
[World] Market Snapshot: Dow advances over 250 points to book best month since January on earnings, as bank concerns, Fed decision loom U.S. stocks finished higher on Friday, with the Dow industrials notching its best month since January. Published:4/28/2023 3:53:19 PM
[Markets] Stocks Gain as Dow Has Its Best Month Since January Stocks gained on the final trading day of April, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average notching its best month since January. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 273 points, or 0.8%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.8%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.7%. Published:4/28/2023 3:17:10 PM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Wall Street gyrates, Treasury yields fall amid mixed data, earnings U.S. stocks oscillated on Friday and benchmark Treasury yields dipped as market participants digested a spate of mixed corporate earnings and data that confirms that while inflation is cooling, it remains well above the Federal Reserve's target. The S&P 500 and the Dow were modestly higher but Amazon.com pulled the Nasdaq into negative territory, with each index poised to notch modest weekly gains. Economic data released before the bell confirmed that inflation is falling but remains more than double the Federal Reserve's average annual goal of 2%, and did little to move the needle regarding market expectations of another 25 basis-point interest rate hike when the central bank meets next week. Published:4/28/2023 10:53:06 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Gets Love Despite Amazon Belly Flop; Intel Breaks Out On 287% Growth Forecast The Dow Jones Industrial Average and major stock market indexes ticked higher in the first hour of Friday's session, adding points after Thursday's monster short-covering rally. Amazon trapped bulls looking for a Friday rally repeat after warning about declining AWS growth. Intel stunned market watchers, breaking out after another weak quarter. Published:4/28/2023 9:58:18 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Reverses After Key Inflation Data. Amazon Dives, While First Solar Plunges 12% On Earnings Miss The Dow Jones reversed higher Friday morning after key inflation data. Amazon stock dived after warning of slowing cloud growth. Published:4/28/2023 9:08:31 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls After Key Inflation Data. Amazon Drops, While First Solar Plunges On Earnings Miss The Dow Jones fell Friday morning after key inflation data. Amazon stock dropped after warning of slowing cloud growth. Published:4/28/2023 8:42:52 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall After Key Inflation Data. Amazon Drops, While First Solar Plunges On Earnings Miss. Dow Jones futures fell Friday morning after key inflation data. Amazon stock dropped after warning of slowing cloud growth. Published:4/28/2023 7:50:44 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Key Inflation Data. Amazon Drops, While First Solar Plunges On Earnings Miss. Dow Jones futures fell Friday morning ahead of key inflation data. Amazon stock dropped after warning of slowing cloud growth. Published:4/28/2023 7:31:18 AM
[Markets] Stocks Fall Ahead of Inflation Data U.S. stock futures fell early Friday as investors digested disappointing tech earnings and looked ahead to the Federal Reserve’s preferred inflation metric later in the day. Futures on the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.5%, or 163 points, lower ahead of the open, while S&P 500 futures were 0.5% down and the Nasdaq-100 futures fell 0.3%. “U.S. futures suggest Wall Street could give back some of [Thursday’s] gains at the open after Amazon’s cloud outlook disappointed,” Interactive Investor analyst Victoria Scholar said. Published:4/28/2023 4:38:12 AM
[Markets] Dow Tops 500 Points as Earnings Rev Up Wall Street The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 524 points, or 1.6%. The S&P 500 gained 2%, while the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite climbed 2.4%. The stock was the best performer in the S&P 500 Thursday, and was on pace for its highest close since February 2022, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Published:4/27/2023 3:06:49 PM
[Markets] Stocks Soar as Meta Revs Up the Market The stock market revved up on Thursday, pushed into high gear by strong earnings from Big Tech. Meta took the lead, jumping 15%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 411 points, or 1.2%, and was on pace for its largest one day percentage gain since March 31. Published:4/27/2023 1:26:41 PM
[Markets] Indexes Hit Session Highs After Jobs, GDP Data; Amazon Clears Key Level With Earnings Due Dow Jones rose after initial claims fell despite slowing GDP. Amazon cleared a key price level ahead of tonight's earnings. Published:4/27/2023 1:09:13 PM
[Markets] Dow industrials up 300 points — and the Nasdaq Composite, 200 — at midday Dow industrials up 300 points — and the Nasdaq Composite, 200 — at midday Published:4/27/2023 11:12:11 AM
[Markets] Stocks Are Rising. Tech Leads the Way Again. CARD The stock market was rising Thursday following strong earnings results from more companies, including tech giant Meta. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 299 points, or 0.9%. The S&P 500 gained 1. Published:4/27/2023 11:12:11 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises After Surprise Fall In Jobless Claims. Meta Surges, But This Hot AI Stock Crashes 30%. The Dow Jones rose Thursday after a surprise drop in jobless claims. Meta stock surged, but hot AI stock Mobileye crashed 30% on earnings. Published:4/27/2023 8:59:30 AM
[Markets] Stocks Rise After GDP Data The stock market was rising after first-quarter gross domestic product growth missed economists’ expectations. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures have risen 170 points, or 0.5%. S&P 500 futures have gained 0.6%, while Nasdaq Composite futures have climbed 1%. Published:4/27/2023 8:14:17 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After Surprise Fall In Jobless Claims. Meta Surges, But This Hot AI Stock Plunges 18%. Dow Jones futures rose Thursday after first-jobless claims. Meta stock surged, but hot AI stock Mobileye plunged 18% on earnings. Published:4/27/2023 7:43:16 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Jobless Claims. Meta Surges, But This Hot Chip Stock Crashes 29%. Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of first-jobless claims. Meta stock surged, but hot chip stock Impinj crashed 29% on earnings. Published:4/27/2023 7:29:07 AM
[Markets] The Fed Expects a Recession: 2 Dow Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist and 1 to Avoid Like the Plague Two time-tested Dow stocks are perfectly positioned if the U.S. dips into a recession, while another Dow component has an abysmal track record during economic downturns. Published:4/27/2023 4:13:28 AM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Nasdaq climbs as investors cheer Microsoft, Alphabet results The tech-heavy Nasdaq outperformed Wall Street's other major indexes on Wednesday after strong Microsoft Corp results boosted the technology sector but gains pared as the session wore on due to lingering concerns about a weakening U.S. economy and the banking sector. The S&P 500 and the Dow ended lower, dragged down by economically sensitive transport stocks due to ongoing recession fears. Bank stocks were also under pressure as regional bank First Republic hit a record low. Published:4/26/2023 3:11:52 PM
[Markets] Does Boeing Have Enough Fuel to Reach Cruising Altitude? Aerospace giant and Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) member The Boeing Company is trading higher Wednesday as investors like their revenue beat this morning. Let's review the charts and indicators as part of our pre-flight checklist. In the daily bar chart of BA, below, I can see that the shares are back above the 50-day moving average line. Published:4/26/2023 12:09:10 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Reverses Lower As Microsoft Surges On Earnings; Tesla Stock Slides On Downgrade; Facebook Earnings Next The Dow Jones rose Wednesday, as Microsoft surged on earnings. Tesla stock was downgraded. And Facebook earnings are next. Published:4/26/2023 9:16:19 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises As Microsoft Surges On Earnings; Tesla Stock Falls On Downgrade; Facebook Earnings Next The Dow Jones rose Wednesday, as Microsoft surged on earnings. Tesla stock was downgraded. And Facebook earnings are next. Published:4/26/2023 8:42:54 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise As Microsoft Surges On Earnings; Tesla Downgraded; Facebook Earnings Next Dow Jones futures rose Wednesday, as Microsoft surged on earnings. Tesla stock was downgraded. And Facebook earnings are next. Published:4/26/2023 7:32:51 AM
[Markets] Microsoft’s premarket gain of 7.5% adding 130 points to blue-chip Dow average Microsoft’s premarket gain of 7.5% adding 130 points to blue-chip Dow average Published:4/26/2023 7:00:13 AM
[Markets] 2 Beaten-Down Dow Stocks to Buy Before They Pop Companies like Disney (NYSE: DIS) and Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA) make the list, in part, because both are clearly household names. The problem for these two stocks (and by association the Dow) is these two stocks have been out of favor of late. Walgreens is one of the largest pharmacies in the world, with around 13,000 locations across the United States, Europe, and South America. Published:4/26/2023 4:30:34 AM
[Markets] For Only the 4th Time in 63 Years, This Economic Indicator Offers an Ominous Warning for Wall Street As 2022 proved, things don't always go as planned on Wall Street. Following a year where seemingly nothing could go wrong for equities, the world-renowned Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-focused Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) all plunged into a bear market and respectively ended 2022 down 9%, 19%, and 33%. Collectively, this was Wall Street's worst performance since 2008. Published:4/26/2023 4:24:41 AM
[Markets] 2 Tech Giants Could Make Wednesday a Great Day for the Stock Market The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) suffered the steepest losses, but the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) and S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) also lost more than 1% on the day. In particular, investors had been watching closely to see what tech giants Microsoft (NASDAQ: MSFT) and Alphabet (NASDAQ: GOOGL) (NASDAQ: GOOG) would say about their respective financial results. Read on to learn more about why Microsoft and Alphabet were so upbeat. Published:4/25/2023 6:15:23 PM
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