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[Markets] Stock Futures Slip After Dow Hits New Highs U.S. stock markets were set for a slightly weaker open Wednesday as investors gauged whether the recent stock rally inspired by the Federal Reserve can continue. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were down less than 0.1%. S&P 500 futures slipped and Nasdaq Composite futures were down 0.2%. Published:12/20/2023 3:25:13 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Waver as Dow Hits New Highs U.S. stock markets were set for a muted open Wednesday as investors gauged whether the recent stock rally inspired by the Federal Reserve can continue. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 1 point, or less than 0.1%. The Dow reached its fifth consecutive record close on Tuesday, with hopes for interest-rate cuts still powering market gains. Published:12/20/2023 3:11:28 AM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Tuesday, 12/19/2023 Wall Street closed higher and held near all-time highs amid hopes that moves by Japan’s central bank to keep interest rates easy for investors could be a preview for the rest of the world. The Dow rose 0.7%, and the Nasdaq composite added 0.7%. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was one of the world’s biggest winners after its central bank decided to keep its benchmark rate below zero in hopes of encouraging more borrowing and spending. Published:12/19/2023 3:33:17 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Industrial Average On Track For 9th Straight Gain; Is It Time To Buy These 'Dogs Of The Dow'? The Dow Jones Industrial Average lifted into new-high territory again as the bulls continued their reign in the stock market today. Walgreens, up 2.7% for the week, still trades 35% below a 52-week high and 73% off an all-time peak of 97.30. Is it time, as some market pundits suggest, to buy the dogs of the Dow? Published:12/19/2023 2:41:24 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Leader Microsoft, Netflix In Buy Zones In Today's Stock Market Dow Jones tech titan Microsoft and streaming giant Netflix join these two leaders in or near buy zones in today's stock market rally. Published:12/19/2023 1:56:24 PM
[Markets] Stock Market Rally Continues As Dow Jones Sets Another Record; S&P Hits New Mark Major indexes added to their December rally in morning action on the stock market Tuesday, as the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed more than 100 points and reached another all-time high. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.5% in recent trades, while the Nasdaq composite also climbed 0.5 %. The S&P 500 added 0.4% in the stock market today and hit a new 52-week high. Published:12/19/2023 10:02:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Extends Winning Streak; Netflix Among 7 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones rose Tuesday after key economic data. Netflix stock is among the best stocks to buy and watch in today's market. Published:12/19/2023 8:40:30 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Extend Their Winning Streak; Netflix Among 7 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures rose Tuesday ahead of key economic data. Netflix stock is among the best stocks to buy and watch in today's market. Published:12/19/2023 7:35:40 AM
[Markets] 2024 Markets: The End Of A Crappy Year, The Beginning Of A Worse One 2024 Markets: The End Of A Crappy Year, The Beginning Of A Worse One

Authored by Matthew Piepenburg via GoldSwitzerland.com,

As my last report for 2023, I wanted to hit the big issues blunt in the face—from debt and sovereign bond markets to themes on the USD, inflation, risk markets and physical gold.

This will not be short, but hopefully simple.

No one likes hard macro facts, especially at holiday parties, so I’ll sip my champagne in silence and share my views here instead.

Powell: From Hawk to Dove to Jive Turkey in 30 Days

So, hawkish Powell is now talking about dovish rate cuts in 2024.

Powell, however, is neither a hawk nor dove but more of a jive turkey or, in the spirit of Christmas, a cooked goose.

The sad but simple fact of the matter is that our Fed Chairman, like so many of the so-called “experts,” has a genuine problem with admitting failure or speaking honestly—which is why I recommended long ago to bet against the experts

Looming Rate Cuts? No Surprise at All

For any who have been following my blunt views on US debt markets, bond volatility, interest rate gyrations and Fed-speak vs. Fed-honesty (our first oxymoron), this pivot toward rate cuts should come as zero surprise.

ZERO.

As indicated many times, rising rates break things, and so many things have broken (banks, Gilts, USTs, the middle class…) that even Powell can’t deny this anymore.

Powell, as wrote earlier this year, has only been raising rates so that when the denied recession that we are already in becomes an official 2024 recession according to the always too-late NBER, at least the Fed will have something to cut.

Powell, of course, is a politician, and like all politicians, has learned the art of bending truth to straighten his career and legacy.

It’s The Recession, Stupid

But even Powell, despite all his rhetoric on (mis) hitting target inflation via his pseudo-Volcker-esque profile of “higher-for-longer,” always knew (and still knows) that America is already in a hard-landing recession thirsty for cheaper rates and even more debt…

The evidence of this recession, as I’ve said, is literally everywhere—from classic economic indicators like the yield curve (inverted), the Conference Board of Leading Indicators (dipped below 4% threshold last December) and a dramatic 4% decrease in the M2 money supply (inherently deflationary), to basic Main Street indicators like record-breaking bankruptcy filings, ongoing lay-offs, equally record-breaking car and credit card delinquencies—all encapsulated by the Oliver Anthony Indicator.

Debt-Rollovers Needed Lower Rates

But there are more reasons these rate cuts are of no surprise…

Never forget this: The Fed serves Wall Street (and capital gain taxes), not Main Street. And Wall Street is screaming for help.

The over-valued and cheap-credit-addicted S&P 500 (led by 7 names only) is riddled with countless zombie enterprises staring down the barrel of $740B in debt rollovers in 2024, and another $1.2T in 2025—all at currently Powell-higher rates.

That is a problem.

And Uncle Sam is looking at 30% of his $34T in IOUs (about $17T worth) re-pricing over the next 36 months at equally higher, Powell-driven rates.

That too is a problem.

And as I warned: Rates would have to be cut to avoid a market bloodbath and sovereign bond debt trap.

Et voila—here comes Powell announcing rate cuts. Real shocker…

A Mug’s Game

Does such foresight make me/us psychic? Blessed with mystical powers?

Hardly.

Predicting any near-term move in the markets or even in the minds of a Fed official (which are essentially now the same thing), is indeed a mug’s game.

No one can pick the day, hour or even month of a watershed move.

But for those who follow deficits, debt markets and hence bond dysfunction, the signals (i.e., basic math) can offer pretty sound ideas of what’s coming.

Such instincts are nothing radical or genius, but boil down to common sense, something most of us own. You know, like how most of us reach for an umbrella on a cloudy day—because, well: Clouds warn of rain ahead.

What the Storm Clouds (and Debt Bubbles) Portend

The clouds we’ve been tracking in the bond markets were easy to see for everyone willing to open their eyes–except perhaps for politicians, who prefer to keep their well-made heads buried in the sand.

For months and months, we’ve been pounding our patient little fists that debt actually matters, and hence by extension, bond markets actually matter.

With this simple, (i.e., common sense) premise in mind, we thus had very little long-term faith in the short-term words or policies of our fork-tonged and financially-trapped central bankers about “higher for longer.”

Like Luke Gromen, and frankly even Charles Calomiris of the St. Louis Fed, we saw (and warned over and over and over) that the cost of Uncle Sam’s own IOUs under Powell’s “higher-for-longer” meme-war against inflation would fail.

Why?

For the simple reason that rising debt costs would force the Fed to reduce rates and eventually print more money just to pay for Uncle Sam’s True Interest Expense.

That’s called “Fiscal Dominance.”

In short, and despite all of Powell’s rate-hiking and chest-puffing, we saw a rate pause, as well as rate cuts, as effectively inevitable.

As warned, Powell then paused the rate hikes. And now, as 2023 winds toward a disastrous end, he is talking of rate cuts for 2024.

Again: Hardly a shocker. And here’s why.

Hitting a Wall of Fiscal Dominance

When official (as opposed to honest) CPI inflation falls while interest rates (as best measured by the yield on the unloved 10Y UST) rise, then “real” (i.e. inflation-adjusted) rates go positive and north.

And when real rates approach 2%, this means debt becomes really painful for companies, individuals, and, of course, broke governments like the U.S.

The rest of the world knows this too, which is why central banks have been dumping Uncle Sam’s unloved USTs (red line) and stacking gold (blue line), as they’d rather own real money than a declining asset from a bad credit.

This global dumping of USTs pushed bond prices down and hence yields and rates up, which meant Uncle Sam’s interest payments only got worse—i.e. $1T a year.

That stings.

And even poor old Janet Yellen, having slithered from a position as Fed Chair to Treasury Secretary (how’s that for insider power?) realized there was a real problem with Powell’s rate hikes.

As she confessed just last week: “Rising real rates may impact Fed decision on rate path.”

Well, as we seasoned bond experts say on Wall Street: “Duh.”

Meanwhile, the Financial Media Gets It All Wrong: The Truth About US Bonds

But despite this moment of “duh,” the main stream financial media, which like all media, has simply devolved into a propaganda arm of a centralized government with a weaponized Dollar and a “puppet-ized” president, tried to tell the world that November was a banner month for Uncle Sam’s bonds, which saw its best month in 40 years.

This, they boasted, was proof that America’s IOUs were loved IOUs.

As usual, however, just about everything the mainstream media says is approximately 180 degrees from the facts and hence truth…

November’s historical yield compression and bond price rise, for example, was not the result of resurging natural demand, but rather a spike in un-natural DC intervention at its best and most desperate.

For the fifth time in four years, and reminiscent of the already forgotten Treasury General Account tricks of last October, the Fed and US Treasury Department were hard at work at trickery hiding in plain sight.

That is, panicking central planners saw a need for liquidity that wasn’t coming from the rest of the world.

They thus saved the 10Y UST from an over-supply sky-fall by simply over-issuing more bonds from the short end of the yield curve to buy time.

And at the same time DC was shuffling risk from the 10Y to the 2Y UST, they got even more clever by sucking liquidity out of the Treasury General Account to the monthly tune of $150B to keep bond yields from spiking out of the Fed’s increasingly weakening control.

And that, folks, is what made November an historical month: Not a natural rebirth of global demand for Uncle Sam’s IOUs, but a series of loosening tricks wherein DC drinks its own expensive Kool aide and calls it a national victory.

But if, according to consensus, November was such a Fed and bond victory, why is the December version of a once-hawkish Powell now talking dovishly about more rate cuts in 2024?

From Fake Victory to Open Decline: No Good Options Left at the Fed

The simple answer is because America is not in a period of victory, but one of open and obvious decline clear to everyone but the word-heavy yet math-challenged media, the deficit-popular-politicos and the cornered central-bankers.

And boy do I mean cornered.

Why?

Because as warned month after month, debt destroys nations and hence corners central planners, who have nothing but bad options to address very bad math.

That is, if they don’t cut rates and print more fake money, risk assets tank and the economy falls with it into a hard recession.

But if central bankers loosen policy to save the system, they kill the currency’s inherent purchasing power, which is precisely what Powell will do next—as all broke nations sacrifice their money to cover their butts

Very Scary Math

To keep this sensational but all too sad point real, just consider the facts rather than the drama of a nation whose debt profile makes growth impossible.

Current US debt to GDP has crossed the Rubicon of 100% well into the 120% range; our deficit to GDP is at 8% and rising; our Net International Investment Position (i.e., piggy bank of foreign assets) is at negative 65%; our public debt is at 34 TRILLION and counting, and according the Congressional Budget Office, Uncle Sam is about to spit out at least another $20T in US IOUs over the next 10 years, and this modest number (?) is assuming no intervening recession…

But who will buy Uncle Sam’s IOUs to cover his skyrocketing deficits?

According to simple math and hard facts, the answer since 2014 is basically no one but the Fed…

Such facts have the global chief economist at Citi Group worried and wondering, and it’s never a good thing when even the beneficiaries of a Fed-driven debt bubble are worried about the size of that bubble…

Meanwhile, combined public, corporate and household debt in the debt-imprisoned land of the free is around $100T.

I don’t even know how to write this number out, but I can assure you that no one in DC knows how to pay it either.

This, of course, is a problem…

Collateral Debt Damage—The Dollar, Inflation, Markets Etc.

All of this debt, alas, brings us to the corollary topics of inflation and the next chapters of the USD, because debt and currencies, like just about everything else, including risk assets, are all connected and inter-twined.

That is, if one understands debt, one can see the patterns of broader markets—past, present and future.

The USD: Relative Strength Aint Enough

When it comes to the USD, let’s not kid ourselves: The world still needs it. 70% of global GDP is measured in USDs and 80% of global trade is settled in Dollars.

And as Brent Johnson’s milkshake theory reminds, there is a great big straw (“sucking sound”?) of global demand for USDs coming from Euro Dollar markets, derivative markets and oil markets.

I agree that this super straw (or better yet, global “sponge”) is enormously powerful, and hence the need for Dollar liquidity is a massive tailwind for the USD.

But… this massive tailwind is not an immortal tailwind.

De-Dollarization: More Than Many Think

Evidence of increasing de-dollarization post-US-Russia sanctioning (and Dollar-weaponization) is not merely a bearish meme but an open and undeniable reality.

China and Russia are moving ever more toward oil purchases in CNY (which Russia then converts into gold on the Shanghai Gold Exchange/SGE) while an exponentially increasing number of bilateral trade agreements among the BRICS+ nations are now happening OUTSIDE of the USD.

Just as Nixon’s de-coupling of the gold-standard in 1971 lead to a slow death by a thousand cuts of the USD’s inherent purchasing power (a 98% loss when measured against gold), the weaponization of the USD will lead to a similar (but slow) death by a thousand cuts of the USD’s global hegemony (when measured against a world turning away from the debt-backed rather than gold-backed USD).

We warned of this from day 1 of the sanctions against Russia.

A Supreme Dollar Losing Respect

For now, however, the USD is still supreme, but unlike Brent Johnson, I don’t see even its relative strength pushing the DXY to 150.

This is for the simple reason that even Uncle Sam knows that the rest of his global friends and enemies can’t afford to pay-back $14T in Dollar-denominated debt at such a level without having to dump more of their foreign held USTs (about $7.6T worth), which would crush UST pricing and lead to skyrocketing (and unsustainable) UST yields and rates for Uncle Sam himself.

In short: Even Uncle Sam fears rising rates and a too-strong USD.

Such a fear of rising rates along with the reality of growing US deficits (and hence a growing need for more US IOUs) will soon lead to an over-supply/issuance of USTs down the road.

And the only buyers of those USTs to control yields/rates will be the Fed, not the rest of the world (See graph above…).

That kind of bond buying with money created out of thin air kills a currency.

No Milkshake Straw for USTs = Mega Money Printing Ahead

Thus, while the milkshake theory correctly sees immortal global demand for USDs, there is no similar straw (or demand) for USTs.

This means the Fed will have to print trillions of more Dollars to buy its own sovereign bonds, an inherently inflationary policy which weakens rather than strengthens the Dollar longer term.

This is why Powell’s “pause,” and now “cutting” in 2024 will eventually be followed, in my opinion, by “mega printing.”

After all, “pause, cut and print” is the pattern of debt- cornered central bankers, and eventually (despite TGA and short-duration bond tricks) Powell will need massive amounts of mouse-click money to monetize Uncle Sam’s sickening (and growing) deficits.

We saw this exact pattern between 2018 (QT) and 2020 (unlimited QE).

The end-game is thus more money creation, more money debasement and hence more inflation.

But First the Deflation

But before then, we are marching into an “official” recession in 2024, and recessions are inherently dis-inflationary if not outright deflationary.

Again, the inflation-deflation debate is not a debate but a cycle.

Historically, moreover, the dramatic declines in M2 ALWAYS result in deflation. Always.

And More Risk Asset Bubbles?

As for our stock and bond bubbles, they certainly like cheaper debt (i.e., lower rates) and mouse-clicked trillions (i.e., QE).

For now, markets are expecting (pricing in) the former and waiting for the latter, which can and will make them giddy.

With about 25% of US GDP sitting in cash equivalents, Powell’s 2024 projected rate cuts will send a lot of that money into the market bubbles, sending asset inflation even higher, which means more needed tax revenues for Uncle Sam.

If the DXY stays low, markets will rise. And if the Fed is accommodative, markets will rise. This includes BTC.

It’s just that simple: Tight policies are a market headwind, loose policies are a market tailwind.

This is because capitalism died long ago and the Fed is essentially the de facto market-maker for the S&P, Dow & NASDAQ.

But trying to determine, or time, how long this charade of Fed-driven asset bubbles can avoid a sickening moment of mean-reversion is the topic of another article.

Gold: The Brightest Star on the Tree

Gold, of course, merely sits back and patiently watches all these debt forces—and hence inflationary and currency debates/reactions–with a calm smile.

Why?

Well, gold loves chaos, and thanks to decades and decades of policy makers who believed they could solve one debt crisis after the next (think Paul Krugman) with more debt, the financial/recessionary chaos (as per above) is literally everywhere.

Thus, even when rates are officially positive, gold reached record highs, despite my own argument that gold loves negative real rates.

And even with a relatively strong USD and DXY, gold has reached record highs, despite the standard view that gold favors a weak USD.

And even with yields spiking, gold has reached record highs, despite another common misconception that investors prefer higher-yielding bonds over zero-yielding “pet rocks.”

Gold, in other words, follows more than just conventional indicators. It has a profile, life and history of its own, one which few investors understand unless their aim is solvency and wealth preservation.

In fact, the easiest way to understand gold is that it’s more loyal than paper money.

Despite all the endless debating, and all the spot-price manipulationsin the OTC markets and all the crypto comparisons and fiat-money apologists, the fact is that informed investors, like a growing list of informed countries, just don’t trust the US, its bonds or its fiat-Dollar like they used do.

They’d rather have gold:

And in the years ahead, they’ll get a fairer gold price on the SGE than in London or New York, which means the West will soon have to behave on actual supply and demand principles rather LBMA bank price manipulations…

Iconic America has devolved from a gold-backed currency and the world’s leading creditor, manufacturer and trade partner to a debt-soaked America with a gold-welched-dollar and is now the world’s biggest debtor, weakest manufacturer and open loser to a trade war with China.

This is hardly a proud evolution from its Greatest Generation…

In short, the iconic America is no more, and there’s a far better Sharpe Ratio in gold than there is in topping risk portfolios…

Like it or not, believe it or not: Gold is rising because the home of the world reserve currency with its shining façade of free market price discovery has lost its way, replacing capitalism with feudalism and altruistic leadership with egotistic opportunism.

If WE know this. So too does gold.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/19/2023 - 07:20
Published:12/19/2023 7:01:51 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Nasdaq, S&P 500 Hit New Highs; These Magnificent Seven Stocks Race Higher Dow Jones futures: The Nasdaq and S&P 500 hit new highs Monday, as Magnificent Seven stocks Alphabet, Amazon, Meta and Nvidia raced higher. Published:12/19/2023 7:01:51 AM
[Markets] A New Bull Market Is Here for the Dow Jones. Here Are the 3 Best Dow Stocks to Buy for 2024. These Dow stocks could be big winners in the new year. Published:12/19/2023 5:01:24 AM
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[Markets] Dow Jones Up As Netflix Clears Entry; Cathie Wood Buys This Soaring Stock, Sells Bitcoin Plays The Dow Jones rose. Cathie Wood snapped up a stock on a strong run but sold Bitcoin stocks. Netflix stock cleared a buy point but Apple fell. Published:12/18/2023 4:57:42 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall Street ends higher, extending rate-cut rally U.S. stocks gained ground on Monday as market participants parsed mounting expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. A broad but modest rally boosted the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq to solid gains, while the Dow ended flat. "Markets are heading in the direction of the Fed beginning to cut interest rates next year," said Tom Hainlin, national investment strategist at U.S. Bank Wealth Management in Minneapolis. Published:12/18/2023 3:39:40 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As Adobe Pops; Cathie Wood Snaps Up This Stock On 65% Run, Sells Bitcoin Plays The Dow Jones gained as other indexes rose. Cathie Wood snapped up a stock amid a powerful run. And Adobe rose as a deal crumbled. Published:12/18/2023 3:04:09 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall St builds on rally as Fed euphoria lingers U.S. stocks advanced on Monday as market participants parsed mounting expectations of interest rate cuts from the Federal Reserve in the coming year and looked ahead to a week of crucial economic data. All three major U.S. stock indexes gained ground in a broad but modest rally, with the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq advancing the most and the Dow inching toward yet another all-time closing high, posting nominal gains. Wall Street continues to build on seven straight weeks of gains, the S&P 500's longest weekly winning streak since 2017, fueled by optimism of policy rate cuts in 2024, a fervor that Fed policy makers attempted to rein in on Monday. Published:12/18/2023 1:55:34 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones At Record Highs; Tesla Rival Wins $2 Bil Deal As Apple Responds To Ban Dow Jones continued to rise to record highs after economic data Monday. Tesla rival Nio surged on a new investment. Nike, Micron earnings loom. Published:12/18/2023 12:11:32 PM
[Markets] Tech Stocks Lead Gains Monday The stock market is gaining Monday, with technology shares leading the way higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has risen 39 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 has gained 0.5% and the tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up 0. Published:12/18/2023 11:56:28 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Record Highs After Economic Data; Tesla Rival Wins $2 Bil Deal Dow Jones continued to rise to record highs after economic data Monday. Tesla rival Nio surged on a new investment. Nike, Micron earnings loom. Published:12/18/2023 10:11:28 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises After Key Housing Data; Netflix Stock Is Breaking Out Today The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Monday after key housing data. Netflix stock is breaking out today past a new buy point. Published:12/18/2023 9:17:29 AM
[Markets] Stocks Are Rising After Another Strong Week The stock market is pushing higher after it closed out a strong week Friday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 45 points, or 0.1%, while the S&P 500 has gained 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite has advanced 0.2%. The market is confident that the economy can continue to grow as the Federal Reserve potentially moves towards cutting interest rates from hiking them. Published:12/18/2023 8:49:10 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Key Housing Data; Tesla Stock Hits Buy Point Dow Jones futures rose Monday ahead of key housing data. Tesla stock hit a new buy point last week and is in buy range. Published:12/18/2023 8:22:19 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Marks 7th Straight Weekly Gain As Boeing Stock Jumps; DocuSign Surges On Takeover Chatter The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite extended their weekly win streaks to seven on a quadruple-witching Friday. Published:12/15/2023 3:42:42 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Near Highs As Boeing Stock Jumps; DocuSign Surges On Takeover Chatter The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite were on pace for their seventh straight weekly gain on quadruple-witching Friday. Published:12/15/2023 2:23:49 PM
[Markets] Dow Flat While Nasdaq Keeps Climbing; Costco Hits All-Time High The stock market showed mixed results early Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased off record highs. Published:12/15/2023 10:36:27 AM
[Markets] Why Are Tech Stocks Up—and the Dow Down—Today? Technology stocks are in the green Friday, bucking the broader trend. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 40 points, or 0.1% and the S&P 500 is flat 0.1%. Tech stocks had underperformed Thursday, but analysts expect many of the mega-sized tech companies to grow earnings faster than the S&P 500 over the next couple of years. Published:12/15/2023 10:00:13 AM
[Markets] Stock Market Today: Stocks mixed as Dow tries to keep record streak going The Dow is looking to notch another record in the wake of the Fed's pivot away from its 'higher for longer' interest-rate approach. Published:12/15/2023 9:17:16 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Amid Key Economic Data; Costco Rallies On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped Friday amid key economic data, as the stock market hit more new highs. Costco stock rallied on earnings. Published:12/15/2023 8:07:48 AM
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[Markets] Futures gain as rate-cut cheer persists The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, acknowledging slowing inflation and indicated lower borrowing costs were on the horizon, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to notch its second straight record high close on Thursday. Money markets see a 79% chance of at least a 25-basis point rate cut as soon as March 2024, up from about 50% before Wednesday's policy announcement, while almost fully pricing in another cut in May 2024, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Published:12/15/2023 5:13:42 AM
[Markets] Stock market today: Asian markets churn upward after the Dow ticks to another record high Asian shares powered higher on Friday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to another record on excitement that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates several times next year. Troubled developer Country Garden's shares jumped 5.1%, while China Evergrande gained 2.2% and Sino Ocean Holding surged 6.8%. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that factory output rose 6.6% in November and retail sales were up more than 10%, glimmers of improvement for the economy after the post-COVID recovery faded much more quickly than expected. Published:12/15/2023 1:51:05 AM
[Markets] Stocks Close Higher. The Dow Hits Second Consecutive Record High The stock market ended the day in the green, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at its second consecutive all-time high. The Dow gained 158 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0. Published:12/14/2023 3:18:23 PM
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[Markets] Tech Stocks Dip, Giving Up Earlier Gains Technology stocks are giving up earlier gains and falling into the red Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down 0.2% after having spent much of the day in the green. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 81 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 has advanced 0.1%. Published:12/14/2023 12:47:47 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies After Surprise Jobless Claims, Retail Sales; Adobe Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones rallied Thursday after a surprise drop in initial unemployment claims and U.S. retail sales. Adobe stock dived on earnings. Published:12/14/2023 9:25:03 AM
[Markets] Dow industrials continue higher Thursday after Powell-inspired record close Dow industrials continue higher Thursday after Powell-inspired record close Published:12/14/2023 9:19:13 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Keep Surging Ahead Of Jobless Claims, Retail Sales; Adobe Tumbles On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of the initial unemployment claims and U.S. retail sales. Adobe stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/14/2023 7:17:27 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise As Market Rally Runs On Fed Rate-Cut Shift; What To Do Now Futures rose Thursday as Treasury yields tumbled, after the Dow Jones hit a record high on Fed rate-cut forecasts. Here's what to do now. Adobe fell late on guidance. Published:12/14/2023 6:11:48 AM
[Markets] Stock market today: Asian shares are mostly higher after the Dow hits a record high, US dollar falls Shares were mostly higher in Asia on Thursday after a powerful rally across Wall Street sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high as the Federal Reserve indicated that interest rate cuts are likely next year. The European Central Bank and Bank of England were expected to keep their interest rate policies unchanged, as were the central banks of Norway and Switzerland. In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell as the yen gained sharply against the U.S. dollar, since a weaker dollar can hit the profits of Japanese exporters when they are brought back to Japan. Published:12/14/2023 2:39:21 AM
[Markets] RPT-US STOCKS-Dow ends at record high as Fed signals lower borrowing costs in 2024 The Dow Jones industrial average hit its first record closing high since January 2022 and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied more than 1% each on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled that its interest rate-hiking policy is at an end and that it sees lower borrowing costs in 2024. In its policy statement, the Fed also left interest rates steady, as expected, and a near-unanimous 17 of 19 Fed officials projected that the policy rate will be lower by the end of 2024. Published:12/13/2023 4:24:36 PM
[Markets] : Dow scores its highest close in history. Here’s what that means. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swept to a record close on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve signaled a pivot to rate cuts could be in store for 2024. Published:12/13/2023 4:05:34 PM
[Markets] Dow scores its highest close in history. Here’s what that means. Dow scores its highest close in history. Here’s what that means. Published:12/13/2023 4:05:34 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Hits Record High As Fed Sees Three Rate Cuts, Markets Bet On Six. Adobe Falls Late. The Dow hit a record high Wednesday as the Fed forecast three rate cuts in 2024. Markets are even more dovish. Adobe fell late on guidance. Published:12/13/2023 4:05:34 PM
[Markets] Powell "Pivots", Sends Dow To Record High With Election-Year Rate-Cut Projection Powell "Pivots", Sends Dow To Record High With Election-Year Rate-Cut Projection

Did Powell get a 'Biden-esque' tap on the shoulder?

The Dow hit a new record high after The Fed signaled - via its 'dot plot' - that it has pivoted from a pause, dovishly delivering what the market was pricing in (and Powell didn't even get close to trying to walk back the exuberance)...

Fed Chair Powell said absolutely nothing about the massive easing of financial conditions (the tightening of which was the reason for them to pause at the September meeting).

Source: Bloomberg

And then pivoted to a major rate-cut trajectory for 2024 (election year).

  • In Sept, 5 Fed members expected three cuts or more

  • In Dec, 11 Fed members expect three cuts or more.

Source: Bloomberg

Of course, Powell explained, when asked about the election year:

"We don't think about political events, we just can't do that" as he frontloads rate-cuts (from 2025) ahead of 2024 presidential elections.

As The Fed shifted dovishly towards the market, the market shifted even more dovishly - now pricing in 150bps of rate-cuts in 2024 (an election year) - bringing forward the cuts from 2025 (a non-election year)...

Source: Bloomberg

However, amid all the excitement, on a real rate basis, The Fed's policy restriciveness will be basically unchanged by the end of next year IF their inflation and rate forecasts are met

Bonds ripped higher (in price) with the short-end outperforming (2Y -27bps, 30Y -12bps)

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y Yield plunged over 30bps from the intraday highs - the largest daily drop since the SVB crisis in March. Other than that, you have to go back to the GFC (2008) to see moves like this...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, 10Y Yields tumbled to 4.00% and found support there (which stalled stocks)...

Source: Bloomberg

The yield curve (2s30s) massively bull-steepened...

Source: Bloomberg

Is 4.00% 10Y the 'fear' level that prompts equity bulls to lose faith in the soft-landing/goldilocks narrative? Stocks were on a roll though and closed near their highs with Small Caps up 3.5% and the rest of the majors up around 1%

The Fed triggered the biggest stock-buying program since Nov 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

This was the second biggest short-squeeze in stocks since Nov 2022...

Source: Bloomberg

The Magnificent 7 stocks did not exuberantly participate in the yield-collapse the way you think they should have...

Source: Bloomberg

But retail faves are #winning...

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, over in Homebuilder fantasy-land - new highs as the housing market collapses 'because, hey, The Fed will slash rates next year, right'... except the only thing that will drive that kind of a massive sudden rate cut is a massive sudden recession... which is not good for homebuilders...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar puked to late November lows...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ripped up towards $43,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold soared over $40, back above $2,000...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied (WTI back above $69) but were relatively subdued compared to the rest of markets...

Finally, VIX remains extremely low, but, as Goldman highlighted today, it should be 5-8 points higher based on recent economic data...

As they said: We believe that index options prices are much lower than they should be; however, volatility tends to decline at this time of the year, making it difficult to recommend buying VIX.

Tyler Durden Wed, 12/13/2023 - 16:00
Published:12/13/2023 3:24:33 PM
[Markets] Dow notches first record close in almost two years as Fed signals lower rates The Dow ended up 1.40% at 37,090.24 points. Wall Street surged after the Fed held interest rates steady, with a near-unanimous 17 of 19 Fed officials projecting that the policy rate will be lower by the end of 2024. While most U.S. stock investment funds benchmark their performance against the S&P 500 , the Dow is widely followed by Main Street investors. Published:12/13/2023 3:24:33 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones hits an all-time high as investors cheer progress on inflation The Dow Jones Industrial Average hits an all-time high as investors cheer progress on inflation. Published:12/13/2023 3:09:23 PM
[Markets] Dow Soars XXX Points to Record Closing High The Dow Jones Industrial Average sprinted to a new record closing high after the Federal Reserve announced its latest monetary policy decision. The Dow gained 513 points, or 1.4% to close at 37090. The S&P 500 rose 1. Published:12/13/2023 3:09:23 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones eclipses 37,000 intraday for first time ever, heads for record close Dow Jones eclipses 37,000 intraday for first time ever, heads for record close Published:12/13/2023 2:52:49 PM
[Markets] UPDATE 1-Dow industrials hit intraday record high on rate optimism The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its first record high since January 2022 on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024. The Dow was up 1.12% at 36,986.89 points. Ending Wednesday's session at its current level would also mark the Dow's first-record high close since January 2022, and would confirm that it has been in a bull market since tumbling more than 20% through its closing low in September 2022, according to a common definition. Published:12/13/2023 2:39:57 PM
[Markets] Dow Reaches 37000, an Intraday Record High The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an intraday record high. The index is up 472 points, or 1.3% to 37049 at last check, reaching over 37000 for the first time. It’s up just a little less than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which have gained about 1. Published:12/13/2023 2:17:54 PM
[Markets] Stocks Rise After Fed Holds Rates Steady The stock market is maintaining its gain after the Federal Reserve announced that it is holding rates steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 97 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.3% and the Nasdaq has risen 03%. The Fed announced that it will keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Published:12/13/2023 1:11:12 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flat Ahead Of Fed; Magnificent Seven Mixed As Tesla Falls On Autopilot Flaw Dow Jones was flat ahead of the Fed rate decision on Wednesday. Tesla fell while other Magnificent Seven stocks rose. Published:12/13/2023 11:24:18 AM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-US stocks inch up, Treasury yields dip ahead of Fed announcement U.S. stocks moved higher in muted trading and Treasury yields slipped on Wednesday as economic data affirmed inflation is cooling and investors bided their time ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve's rate decision. The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were modestly higher while the Dow was essentially flat after notching 2023 closing highs in the previous session, while crude regained some ground in the wake of Tuesday's slide. Economic data showed U.S. producer prices (PPI) were unchanged in November, providing further evidence that inflation continues to meander down toward the Fed's average annual 2% target. Published:12/13/2023 10:22:12 AM
[Markets] This Market Is Skating on Very Thin Ice As discussed below, psychology data that have been historically prescient regarding indications of excessive bullish sentiment near market peaks have typically been followed by corrections of varying degrees. On the charts, the major equity indexes closed mixed Tuesday with the S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Transports rising as the rest posted losses. Also, the gains on the S&P, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 pushed their prices above their near-term resistance levels, leaving all in near-term bullish trends and lacking sell signals except for the Dow Transports staying neutral. Published:12/13/2023 9:53:08 AM
[Markets] Nasdaq moves higher as S&P and Dow straddle the flat line early Wednesday Nasdaq moves higher as S&P and Dow straddle the flat line early Wednesday Published:12/13/2023 9:06:48 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls After Cool Inflation Data; Fed Decision, Powell Up Next The Dow Jones fell after more key inflation data Wednesday. The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's comments are later in the day. Published:12/13/2023 8:44:16 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Hold Gains After PPI Inflation Data The stock market is gaining after the increase in producer prices came in below expectations. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 39 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures were rising 0.1% and futures tracking the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%. The producer price index for November rose at a 0.9% annual rate, versus estimates of 1% and lower than October’s 1.2% gain. Published:12/13/2023 7:51:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After Cool Inflation Data; Fed Decision, Powell Up Next Dow Jones futures rose after more key inflation data. The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's comments are later in the day. Published:12/13/2023 7:43:56 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Key Inflation Data; Fed Decision, Powell Up Next Dow Jones futures rose ahead of more key inflation data. The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's comments are later in the day. Published:12/13/2023 7:37:14 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise; Nasdaq Hits 2023 Highs, Nvidia Reclaims Buy Point With Fed On Tap Dow Jones futures were little changed after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Federal Reserve meeting decision looms large. The stock market rallied Tuesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a 2023 high, joining the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Published:12/12/2023 5:15:33 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise: Nasdaq Hits 2023 Highs, Nvidia Reclaims Buy Point With Fed On Tap Dow Jones futures rose slightly after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Federal Reserve meeting decision looms large. The stock market rallied Tuesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a 2023 high, joining the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Published:12/12/2023 4:00:50 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Nasdaq Hits 2023 Highs, Nvidia Reclaims Buy Point With Fed On Tap Dow Jones futures tilted higher after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Federal Reserve meeting decision looms large. The stock market rallied Tuesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a 2023 high, joining the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Published:12/12/2023 3:54:48 PM
[Markets] IBM, Nike, Amgen and Salesforce are catalysts as Dow industrials pivot to gain IBM, Nike, Amgen and Salesforce are catalysts as Dow industrials pivot to gain Published:12/12/2023 9:33:06 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls On CPI Inflation Report; Tech Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones dropped Tuesday on the Consumer Price Index inflation report. Tech giant Oracle dived on weak sales results. Published:12/12/2023 9:01:31 AM
[Markets] Dow Opens Flat After November Inflation Report Inflation came in lower than last month’s reading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 10 points, or less than 0.1%, while the S&P 500 has dropped 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1%. The consumer price index gained 3.1% year over year in November, in line with forecasts and down from 3.2% in October. Published:12/12/2023 8:42:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After CPI Inflation Report; Tech Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Tuesday on the Consumer Price Index inflation report. Tech giant Oracle dived on weak sales results. Published:12/12/2023 7:43:39 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of CPI Inflation Report; Tech Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Tuesday ahead of the imminent CPI inflation report. AI giant Oracle dived on weak sales results. Published:12/12/2023 7:17:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Magnificent Seven Stocks Slide; AI Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings; CPI Next Dow Jones futures: The Magnificent Seven stocks tumbled Monday, with heavy losses in Nvidia and Tesla. The CPI inflation report is next. Published:12/11/2023 4:41:38 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises 157 Points As Apple, Tesla Fall; This Warren Buffett Stock On 62% Run Clears Entry The Dow Jones rose even as Apple stock and Tesla stock fell. A Warren Buffett stock cleared an entry point. Macy's stock rocketed on takeover news. Published:12/11/2023 3:39:40 PM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Monday, 12/11/2023 The Nasdaq composite rose 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%. Major stock indexes are on a six-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 up 20% for the year. The Nasdaq composite rose 28.51 points, or 0.2%, to 14,432.49. Published:12/11/2023 3:26:37 PM
[Markets] Stocks Rise, Notch New Highs for 2023 The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 157 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.2%. The indexes have notched impressive gains for the year, with the S&P 500 up more than 20%. Big Tech took the lead early in the year, as tech company earnings growth prospects have gotten even brighter on the back of opportunities related to artificial intelligence. Published:12/11/2023 3:20:07 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Gains As Macy's Rockets; This Warren Buffett Stock On 62% Run Offers Entry The Dow Jones rose as Macy's stock rocketed on takeover news. A Warren Buffett stock has cleared an entry. Apple stock and Tesla stock fell. Published:12/11/2023 2:22:13 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow hit fresh yearly highs ahead of inflation data, Fed policy The S&P 500 and Dow advanced to a new annual high on Monday, although gains were modest ahead of major market catalysts this week that include inflation readings and the Federal Reserve's policy announcement, which will shape investor expectations on the path of interest rates. Increasingly market watchers believe the central bank is done with its interest rate hike cycle and could potentially cut rates in the first half of next year. Published:12/11/2023 1:55:19 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Tech Titan Apple, AI Giants Nvidia, Snowflake Near Buy Points In Today's Stock Market Dow Jones tech titan Apple, along with AI giants Nvidia and Snowflake, are in or near buy zones in today's stock market action. Published:12/11/2023 1:31:06 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On Mixed Fed Pivot Views; Warren Buffett's Oil Stock Enters Big Deal As Macy's Surges On Bid To Go Private Dow Jones rose amid mixed views on when the Fed may start rate cuts. Macy's surged on a buyout offer, Occidental entered a huge private deal. Published:12/11/2023 10:24:43 AM
[Markets] Dow industrials start week off with continued advance; S&P 500, Nasdaq lag Dow industrials start week off with continued advance; S&P 500, Nasdaq lag Published:12/11/2023 9:09:44 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones fell Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 9:09:44 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Mixed to Begin a Busy Week The major stock indexes are mixed Monday as the market takes a breather from recent gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 67 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are down 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively. This comes after a Friday rally, a continuation of what has a been a 20% gain for the S&P 500 this year. Published:12/11/2023 8:45:25 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones rose Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 8:39:23 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Flatten Out; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures dropped Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 8:24:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures dropped Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 7:52:03 AM
[Markets] 12 Dow Stocks Billionaires Like The Least In this piece, we will take a look at the 12 Dow stocks that billionaires really don’t like. If you want to skip our overview of the stock market and the Dow, then you can skip ahead to 5 Dow Stocks Billionaires Like The Least. Even though 2023 is ready to race away into the […] Published:12/10/2023 12:39:30 PM
[Markets] 12 Dow Stocks Billionaires Like The Most In this piece, we will take a look at the 12 Dow stocks that billionaires like the most. If you don’t want to learn more about the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), its history, and recent performance, then skip ahead to 5 Dow Stocks Billionaires Like The Most. In its current form today, the Dow […] Published:12/10/2023 12:22:02 PM
[Markets] Should You Buy the 3 Highest-Paying Dividend Stocks in the Dow Jones? Should you buy the three highest-paying dividend stocks in the Dow Jones right now? Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA) easily ranks at the top of our list. The retail and wholesale pharmacy giant's dividend yield currently stands at nearly 8.4%. Published:12/10/2023 4:57:54 AM
[Markets] Be Careful What You Wish For: This Event May Signal the Start of the 2024 Bear Market The past four years have been nothing short of a wild ride for Wall Street. Since this decade began, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-fueled Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), have bounced back and forth between bear and bull markets in successive years. Currently, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite are enjoying a major rally off of their 2022 bear market lows. Published:12/10/2023 4:14:08 AM
[Markets] Cryptos Jump, Commodities Dump, & Yield-Curve Slumps In 'Goldilocks' Week Cryptos Jump, Commodities Dump, & Yield-Curve Slumps In 'Goldilocks' Week

Reality set in this week that the 'goldilocks' narrative is not compatible with the massive rate-cuts priced-in for next year.

As Goldman warned:

"...it may be hard to justify more than 75bp of cumulative easing without weaker growth. A recession could clearly motivate a much deeper easing cycle, but a high weight on that outcome is not consistent with other asset prices, or with our own central case.

...

For that reason, the market is moving into territory where we think it will become more difficult for US rates to rally unless the growth picture deteriorates more than we, and other markets, expect.”

Stocks mixed-ish, Bonds mixed-ish, Commodities down, Crypto up, & Dollar up as Rate-Cut hopes faded this week (from 140bps in 2024 to 112bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

On the macro side - it was all 'soft' with a little firming in 'hard' data: Inflation expectations (survey) down along with gasoline, Services (survey) data up, labor market mixed (JOLTS weak but unemployment lower), consumer sentiment (survey) soars, and geopolitical risk mixed (US pressures Israel for ceasefire but military action in Yemen looms).

Source: Bloomberg

Good news, bad news, no news; Didn't matter as stocks chopped around wildly squeezing and un-squeezing this week. Small Caps and Mega-Cap tech outperformed while The S&P managed to get green for the week but The Dow struggled all week...

Every time The Dow got green on the week, selling pressure hit...

A chaotic week for 'most shorted' stocks, crashing up and down like a whore's drawers...

Source: Bloomberg

After an ugly open on Monday, Magnificent 7 stocks soared 4.5% off the Monday lows, back up near record highs...

Source: Bloomberg

All of which meant hedge funds got it from both ends unable to escape from Friday's carnage...

Source: Bloomberg

Energy stocks were the week's biggest losers while tech and discretionary outperformed...

Source: Bloomberg

We couldn't help but laugh at the surge in regional bank stocks - now back up near post-SVB highs - while their use of the expensive BTFP bailout facility at The Fed surged to a new record $122BN...

Source: Bloomberg

Treasuries were mixed on the week with the short-end underperforming. Only the long-bond managed to close the week higher in price (lower in yield)...

Source: Bloomberg

Which pushed the yield curve significantly flatter (more inverted). This was the biggest weekly flattening since Nov 2022 to its most inverted since Sept....

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar surged higher this week (after three straight weeks down) ...

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were all higher this week with Solana outperforming. BTC and ETH were each up around 13%...

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin ripped up to $44,000 (its highest since April 2022)...

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum neared $2400 (its highest since May 2022)...

Source: Bloomberg

Commodities were all lower with Silver clubbed like a baby seal, NatGas ugly, Oil & gold were sold, and copper was the least ugly horse in the glue factory...

Source: Bloomberg

Spot Gold fell back to $2000 today

Source: Bloomberg

Gold's outperformance pushed the gold/silver ratio back to the upper end of its range this year (from the lower end)...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices rallied today, ending a 6-day losing streak. WTI found support at $70 (5-month lows)...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, which comes first - the equity market collapse or global central bank balance sheet explosion?

Source: Bloomberg

Our money's on the former and then the latter and the two meeting in the middle before melting up.

Tyler Durden Fri, 12/08/2023 - 16:00
Published:12/8/2023 3:09:36 PM
[Markets] Stocks Search for Direction After Latest Data Stocks were vacillating between gains and losses on Friday as traders digested the latest set of economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1%. The S&P 500 was flat, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 0. Published:12/8/2023 11:39:28 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Firm Above 36,000 After Jobs Report; LULU Stock Reverses Higher After Earnings The Dow Jones rose modestly Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the latest jobs report. Small caps outperformed as bond yields rose. Published:12/8/2023 11:02:02 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises 140 Points After Jobs Report; LULU Stock Reverses Higher After Earnings The Dow Jones rose modestly Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the latest jobs report. Small caps outperformed as bond yields rose. Published:12/8/2023 9:59:35 AM
[Markets] Stocks Turn Higher After Consumer Sentiment Data Stocks turned higher Friday as an upbeat reading on inflation expectations overshadowed a stronger-than-expected jobs report. After opening in negative territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered to gain 128 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. Published:12/8/2023 9:41:02 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Reverses Higher On Strong Jobs Report; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed Friday on a stronger-than-expected November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/8/2023 8:57:41 AM
[Markets] Stocks Fall, Yields Rise. The Labor Market Is Still Strong. Stocks were slipping at Friday’s open after data showed that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 26 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0. Published:12/8/2023 8:44:30 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Recover. Keep an Eye on the Open. Stocks pared some of their losses right before opening bell on Friday after traders digested details in the November jobs report. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% versus the 0.4% loss seen around 8:30 am Eastern time. Published:12/8/2023 8:24:24 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall On Strong Jobs Report; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings Dow Jones futures fell Friday morning on a stronger-than-expected November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/8/2023 7:48:39 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Imminent Jobs Report ; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings Dow Jones futures fell Friday morning ahead of the imminent November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/8/2023 7:08:18 AM
[Markets] U.S. stocks end higher, Dow closes less than 2% from record U.S. stocks end higher, Dow closes less than 2% from record Published:12/7/2023 3:22:29 PM
[Markets] Stocks Got an AI Boost. S&P 500, Dow Ended Losing Streaks. Stocks notched gains on Thursday as investors flocked to AI-related stocks in droves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 63 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 advanced 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1. Published:12/7/2023 3:08:56 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As AMD Soars Amid AI Fever; These 3 Bill Ackman Stocks Are Near Entries The Dow Jones rallied. AMD stock popped amid an AI chip reveal. Some Bill Ackman stocks, including Google parent Alphabet, are near entries. Published:12/7/2023 2:56:06 PM
[Markets] Dow, S&P 500 Set to Snap Losing Streaks Stocks made a strong recovery mid-Thursday as bonds yields lost ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 88 points, or 0.25%. The S&P 500 had made its largest one-day gain since mid-November, moving up 0. Published:12/7/2023 1:36:08 PM
[Markets] Dow trails S&P 500 by most since 2000 The Dow's lack of exposure to the Magnificent 7 tech stocks has put it behind the S&P 500 in 2023. Published:12/7/2023 12:40:39 PM
[Markets] Market Snapshot: Dow, S&P 500 look to snap three-day losing streak as Nasdaq leads U.S. stocks higher U.S. stocks opened higher on Thursday after three days of losses for the Dow and S&P 500 as traders bet that the November jobs report due Friday could show continued moderation in the strength of the labor market. Published:12/7/2023 9:31:26 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Climbs After Jobless Claims Rise; Google Stock Surges After Gemini AI Model The Dow Jones climbed Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. Google stock surged after unveiling its Gemini AI model. Published:12/7/2023 8:55:02 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Higher. Dow, S&P 500 Snap Losing Streaks. Stocks moved decisively higher Thursday, with implications of Japan’s exit from negative interest rates and the state of the U.S. labor market on investors' minds. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 70 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was up about 0.5%. Published:12/7/2023 8:49:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Reverse After Jobless Claims Rise; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings Dow Jones futures reversed higher Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings. Published:12/7/2023 8:12:33 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall After Jobless Claims Rise; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings. Published:12/7/2023 7:35:43 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Jobless Claims; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings. Published:12/7/2023 7:23:30 AM
[Markets] U.S. stocks finish lower as S&P 500, Dow suffer third straight losses U.S. stocks finish lower as S&P 500, Dow suffer third straight losses Published:12/6/2023 3:25:17 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flat As Elon Musk Offers $1 Billion In AI Race Dow Jones rises on weak ADP jobs data for November. Disney rose amid news that activist investor Ancora supports Nelson Peltz's bid for a board seat. Published:12/6/2023 2:22:55 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flounders As Musk Ups AI Race With $1 Billion Offering Dow Jones rises on weak ADP jobs data for November. Disney rose amid news that activist investor Ancora supported Nelson Peltz's bid for a board seat. Published:12/6/2023 1:09:16 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flat On Soft Jobs Data; Elon Musk Files $1 Billion Offering In AI Race Dow Jones rises on weak ADP jobs data for November. Disney rose amid news that activist investor Ancora supported Nelson Peltz's bid for a board seat. Published:12/6/2023 11:54:26 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On Soft Jobs Data; Disney Climbs Amid Board Seat Wars Dow Jones rises on weak ADP jobs data for November. Disney rose amid news that activist investor Ancora supported Nelson Peltz's bid for a board seat. Published:12/6/2023 10:24:24 AM
[Markets] The Dow Jones Is Aiming at All-Time Highs, and These 2 Stocks Are Leading the Charge After a long bear market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is within striking distance of record levels. Published:12/6/2023 9:29:31 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On Weak Jobs Data; Apple Stock Breaks Out Past Buy Point The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Wednesday on a weak ADP jobs report. Apple stock currently is breaking out past its latest buy point. Published:12/6/2023 8:36:50 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After Weak Jobs Data; Apple Stock Breaks Out Past Buy Point Dow Jones futures rose Wednesday after a weak ADP jobs report. Apple stock is breaking out past its latest buy point. Published:12/6/2023 7:39:32 AM
[Markets] This Dow Dividend Giant Missed the 2023 Rally. Is It a Buy Now? The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently touched a 2023 record, rising to an 8% overall return through late November. Investors have been thrilled to see signs of slowing inflation and strong economic growth, and are responding to the good news by pushing the index higher. Not all Dow stocks are benefiting from this surging optimism. Published:12/6/2023 5:09:20 AM
[Markets] The Dow Jones Just Did Something It Hasn't Done Since 2021. It Could Signal a Big Move in the Stock Market The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched five consecutive weekly increases during November, something the blue chip index last did in 2021. Published:12/5/2023 6:39:34 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Eases As Microsoft Stock Tests A New Entry; Sphere Stock Tanks 14% Large and mega-cap stocks outperformed on the stock market today as the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped, but fell less than the Russell 2000. One large stock, Microsoft, got support at a key technical level while testing a 366.78 buy point, as concert venue upstart Sphere Entertainment sold off and hit five-month lows. The S&P 500 traded practically at the break-even point. Published:12/5/2023 2:35:43 PM
[Markets] Wall Street Analysts Are Optimistic For 2024 Wall Street Analysts Are Optimistic For 2024

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It’s that time of the year where Wall Street polishes up their crystal balls and pin targets on the S&P index for the upcoming year. As is often the case, while Wall Street is always optimistic, the forecasts prove pretty wrong.

For example, on December 7th, 2021, we wrote an article about the predictions for 2022.

“There is one thing about Goldman Sachs that is always consistent; they are ‘bullish.’ Of course, given that the market is positive more often than negative, it ‘pays’ to be bullish when your company sells products to hungry investors.

It is important to remember that Goldman Sachs was wrong when it was most important, particularly in 2000 and 2008.

However, in keeping with its traditional bullishness, Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin forecasted the S&P 500 will climb by 9% to 5100 at year-end 2022. As he notes, such will “reflect a prospective total return of 10% including dividends.”

The problem, of course, is that the S&P 500 did NOT end the year at 5100.

Then, in 2022, Wall Street analysts suggested that 2023 would be a year of meager return of just 3.9% with a median price target of 4000.

Of course, reality turned out to be markedly different.

However, the guessing game is an annual tradition of Wall Street analysts and, as is always the case, to borrow a quote:

“(Market) Predictions Are Difficult…Especially When They Are About The Future” – Niels Bohr

Okay, I took a little poetic license, but the point is that while we try, predictions of the future are difficult at best and impossible at worst. If we could accurately predict the future, fortune tellers would win all the lotteries, psychics would be richer than Elon Musk, and portfolio managers would always beat the index.

However, all we can do is analyze what occurred previously, weed through the noise of the present, and discern the possible outcomes of the future. The biggest problem with Wall Street, both today and in the past, is the consistent disregard of the unexpected and random events they inevitability occur.

We have seen plenty, from trade wars to Brexit, to Fed policy and a global pandemic in recent years. Yet, before those events caused a market downturn, Wall Street analysts were wildly bullish that wouldn’t happen.

So what about 2024? We have some early indications of Wall Street targets for the S&P 500 index, and, as is always the case, they are primarily optimistic for the coming year.

“The estimates from sell-side strategists put the average target for the S&P 500 at 4,836 for the end of 2024, implying an advance of merely 6.3% from Monday’s close, according to MarketWatch calculations of the data (see table below). That is below the average yearly return of around 8% for the large-cap index since 1957 and its year-to-date surge of 18.5% in 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data.” – MorningStar

Will next year be another bull market year for stocks, or will the bear finally come out of hibernation? We don’t have a clue but can make educated guesses about ranges given current valuations.

Estimating The Outcomes

The problem with current forward estimates is that several factors must exist to sustain historically high earnings growth.

  1. Economic growth must remain more robust than the average 20-year growth rate.

  2. Wage and labor growth must reverse to sustain historically elevated profit margins, and,

  3. Both interest rates and inflation must reverse to very low levels.

While such is possible, the probabilities are low, as strong economic growth can not exist in a low inflation and interest-rate environment. More notably, if the Fed cuts rates, as most economists and analysts expect next year, such will be in response to a near-recessionary or recessionary environment. Such would not support current strong earnings estimates of $220.24 per share next year. This represents roughly 20% from Q3-2023 levels, which is the most recently completed quarter.

Nonetheless, with that said, we can use the current forward estimates, as shown above, to estimate both a recession and non-recession price target for the S&P 500 as we head into 2024. These assumptions are based on valuation multiples within ranges of current market levels.

In the NO-recession scenario, the assumption is that valuations will fall slightly as earnings increase to 22x earnings over the next year. (22x earnings has been the average over the last few years.) The S&P 500 should theoretically trade at roughly 4845 by 2024 based on current estimates. Given the market is trading at approximately 4550 (at the time of this writing), such would imply a 6.5% increase from current levels.

However, should the economy slip into a mild recession, valuations would be expected to revert toward the longer-term median of 17x earnings. Such would imply a level of 3744 or roughly a 17% decline next year.

While an additional 17% decline from current levels seems hostile, such would align with typical recessionary bear markets.

Which would also coincide with Fed rate cuts to offset the deflationary risk to the economy.

However, we must consider one more scenario.

Maybe The Bulls Are Right

We would be remiss in not providing for a bullish outcome in 2024. However, we must consider several factors for that bullish outcome to take shape.

  1. We assume the $220/share in year-end estimates remains valid.

  2. That the economy avoids a recession even as inflation falls

  3. The Federal Reserve pivots to a lower interest rate campaign.

  4. Valuations remain static at 22x earnings.

In this scenario, the S&P 500 should rise from roughly 4550 to 5395 by the end of 2024. Such would imply an 18.5% gain for the year. Given the market is up approximately 19% in 2023, such a gain

The chart below combines the three potential outcomes to show the range of possible outcomes for 2024. Of course, you can do the analysis, make valuation assumptions, and derive your targets for next year. This is just a logic exercise to develop a range of possibilities and probabilities over the next 12 months.

Conclusion

Here is our concern with the bullish scenario. It entirely depends on a “no recession” outcome, and the Fed must reverse its monetary tightening. The issue with that view is that IF the economy does indeed have a soft landing, there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to reverse reducing its balance sheet or lower interest rates.

More importantly, the rise in asset prices eases financial conditions, which reduces the Fed’s ability to bring down inflation. Such would also presumably mean employment remains strong along with wage growth, elevating inflationary pressures.

While the bullish scenario is possible, that outcome faces many challenges in 2024, given the market already trades at fairly lofty valuations. Even in a “soft landing” environment, earnings should weaken, which makes current valuations at 22x earnings more challenging to sustain.

Our best guess is that reality lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, there is a bullish scenario where earnings decline and a monetary policy reversal leads investors to pay more for lower earnings. But that outcome has a limited lifespan as valuations matter to long-term returns.

As investors, we should hope for lower valuations and prices, which gives us the best potential for long-term returns. Unfortunately, we don’t want the pain of getting there.

Regardless of which scenario plays out in real-time, there is a reasonable risk of weaker returns over the next year than what we saw in 2023.

That is just the math.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/05/2023 - 11:25
Published:12/5/2023 10:40:08 AM
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[Markets] U.S. Money Supply Is Shrinking for the First Time Since the Great Depression, and It May Portend a Big Move for Stocks Since this decade began, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have bounced back and forth between bull and bear markets in each successive year. While there's no predictive tool or metric that can, with guaranteed accuracy, always predict short-term directional moves in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, there are select indicators and datapoints that strongly correlate with directional changes in the broader market. Published:12/3/2023 4:18:16 AM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 12/1/2023 The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 294 points and the Nasdaq composite added 0.6%. In company news, Ulta Beauty soared 10.8% after reporting better-than-expected results for its latest quarter and raising its forecast. Gainers outnumbered decliners by roughly 6-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange. Published:12/1/2023 3:54:41 PM
[Markets] Dow, S&P 500 Hit New 2023 Closing Highs The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 hit new closing highs for 2023 on Friday, as stocks rose again to wrap a fifth straight week of gains for the three major U.S. indexes. The Dow finished up about 295 points, or 0. Published:12/1/2023 3:20:17 PM
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[World] Market Snapshot: Dow climbs to fresh nearly 2-year high as investors await Fed’s Powell U.S. stocks opened mostly lower on Friday after capping off a spectacular November for markets, while the Dow saw modest gains that pushed the blue-chip average to a fresh nearly two-year high. Published:12/1/2023 9:13:58 AM
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[Markets] Asia Markets Mostly Lower, Europe On The Rise, Gold Steady Above $2K Levels - Global Markets Today While US Was Sleeping On Thursday, Nov. 30, U.S. stock markets closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 500 points. In economic data, The U.S. October personal consumption expenditure price index remained stable, following September’s 0.4% increase. Annual core PCE inflation decreased to 3.5% from 3.7%. U.S. jobless claims increased to 218,000 for the week ending Nov. 25, up from 211,000 the prior week and below the 220,000 forecast. Chicago PMI jumped to 55.8 in November from 44 in Octob Published:12/1/2023 8:04:04 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Powell Comments; Tesla Slides On Cybertruck Event Dow Jones futures dropped Friday ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments. Tesla stock skidded after the Cybertruck delivery event. Published:12/1/2023 7:22:58 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise, Techs Fall; Tesla Skids On Cybertruck Details Dow futures rose after the Dow Jones hit a 2023 high. Samsara led software earnings winners overnight. Cybertruck deliveries began, but Tesla fell amid details. Published:12/1/2023 6:58:53 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise; Tesla Falls On Cybertruck Details But These Techs Soar Dow futures rose after the Dow Jones hit a 2023 high. Samsara led software earnings winners overnight. Cybertruck deliveries began, but Tesla fell amid details. Published:12/1/2023 6:08:15 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Hits 2023 High As Salesforce Soars; Tesla Falls On Cybertruck Prices, Range The Dow Jones hit a 2023 high as Salesforce and UnitedHealth jumped. Tesla deliveries began, and the company finally revealed prices and range. TSLA stock fell in Thursday's session and beyond. Published:11/30/2023 4:53:13 PM
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[Markets] Dow Jones Surges 520 Points As Salesforce Soars; Elon Musk Hypes 'Bulletproof' Tesla Cybertruck The Dow Jones roared as Salesforce stock surged on earnings. Tesla stock fell as Elon Musk hyped the bulletproof qualities of the Cybertruck. Published:11/30/2023 3:54:42 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow reaches 2023 closing high as markets turn the page on a robust November The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its highest level this year as investors crossed the finish line of a banner month for stocks and viewed cooling inflation data in the context of Federal Reserve monetary policy. "We're putting the cherry on top of a banner month," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. Among data released Thursday morning, the Commerce Department's closely watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed inflation is cooling as expected, along with consumer spending. Published:11/30/2023 3:05:24 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies, Nasdaq Lags As Salesforce Surges; Elon Musk Hypes Tesla Cybertruck Deliveries The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped as Salesforce stock surged on stellar earnings. Tesla stock fell as Elon Musk hyped the Cybertruck. Published:11/30/2023 2:38:59 PM
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[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow hits 2023 peak as Salesforce jumps, inflation eases The Dow Jones industrials index hit its highest level in 2023 on Thursday, as Salesforce jumped on an upbeat profit forecast and a new report offered further evidence of easing inflation. Salesforce jumped 6.7% as the cloud-based software firm raised its annual profit forecast and beat third-quarter estimates, benefiting from strong demand for its cloud and business products. While the Dow rose to 35,725.11 points, crossing its intraday high of 35,679.13 points hit in August, all three main indexes were on course for their strongest November since 2020. Published:11/30/2023 11:16:01 AM
[Markets] The Dow Is on Pace for Its Highest Close of the Year The Dow Jones Industrial Average was on track for its highest close of 2023 on Thursday. The Dow was up 318 points, or 0.9%, to 35,748.60. Any close above 35,630.68 would mark its highest close of 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Published:11/30/2023 10:25:52 AM
[Markets] Salesforce Provides a Big Boost to the Dow The Dow Jones Industrial Average was leading the big major stock indexes on Thursday, and Salesforce was a big reason why. With the Dow up roughly 270 points, Salesforce stock had contributed 106.24 points to the index, with a 7% gain. Published:11/30/2023 9:50:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies 250 Points On Inflation Data, Jobless Claims; Tesla Slides Ahead Of Cybertruck Event The Dow Jones rose Thursday after key inflation data and initial jobless claims. The Tesla Cybertruck delivery event kicks off later. Published:11/30/2023 9:08:47 AM
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[Markets] Dow Jones Rises After Strong GDP, Fed Beige Book Next; GM Surges On Buyback, Dividend Hike The Dow Jones rose Wednesday after a strong Q3 GDP reading, with the Fed's Beige Book next. GM surged on a buyback and dividend hike. Published:11/29/2023 8:53:07 AM
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[Markets] The Recipe For $150 Oil The Recipe For $150 Oil

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

How do the wars in Ukraine and Gaza impact global economic growth and the U.S. economy in particular?

Both wars are ongoing and cataclysmic impacts may yet be felt. Here’s where events stand at the moment. Let’s start with the war in Ukraine…

From a strategic perspective, the situation in Ukraine resembles a smaller-scale version of the situation in Europe in late 1944. At that point, the Allies had successfully completed the D-Day invasion and liberated Paris.

On the Eastern Front, the Russians had annihilated the combined armies of the German Wehrmacht and were advancing through Poland toward Berlin.

Hard fighting remained. The Allies had to fight the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944, and the Russians encountered stiff German resistance in Poland even though they had superiority in numbers, supplies and weapons.

Still, no one doubted that the tide had turned, and Germany was on its way to defeat.

Russia Is Winning on Two Fronts

Likewise, the Russians are clearly defeating the Ukrainians despite the fact that a lot of hard fighting remains. Ukraine’s so-called spring offensive that began in early June was a complete and utter failure.

Nearly six months after it began, Ukraine only captured a few pinprick villages it was expected to take within the first few days.

Casualties are horrendous and Ukraine is reduced to calling up young teenagers, women and old men. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is 43.

Russia has also demonstrated that NATO weapons systems are hardly wonder weapons.

Russian mines, drones and artillery have destroyed the most advanced German Leopard and U.K. Challenger tanks. The U.S. has held back on letting Ukraine use its Abrams tanks for fear they’ll end up burning on the battlefield like the Leopards and Challengers.

On the economic front, the Russian victory is even more clear-cut than on the military front.

U.S. economic sanctions have failed across the board. The Russian economy is expected to grow at a 5% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023. The best estimate for the U.S. economy in Q4 is 2%, although one can expect that rate to drop as the quarter progresses.

The Russian ruble has withstood Russia’s ejection from global payments networks; it is trading only about 25% lower than when the war began after holding its level against the U.S. dollar over the first 15 months of the war. Inflation in Russia is low.

The Russian economy is on a complete war footing. There are even labor shortages as Russians take jobs in the weapons factories or enlist in the military.

Morale is high, and Putin’s approval rating is above 80% (compare that with Joe Biden’s approval ratings, which are about 37%). To the extent that Putin is unpopular, it’s mostly because many complain he’s not pursuing the war aggressively enough.

Meanwhile, Russian energy sales are at all-time highs. Russia simply sold to India and China any oil and gas that Europe did not want. Meanwhile, Germany is in deep recession even as Russia booms.

Russia’s Also Winning on the Technological Front

Russian technology has proved superior to Western technology on the battlefield. The Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile has destroyed U.S. Patriot anti-missile batteries (about $1 billion each) and has proved unstoppable against Western air defenses.

Russia has also dramatically expanded drone production since the war began. Russia’s even developed advanced drones equipped with AI, which enables coordinated swarm attacks on enemy tanks and armored vehicles.

Russian jamming devices have disabled the GPS systems on the U.S. HIMARS precision artillery systems, which has dramatically impacted their effectiveness.

Russian tech advances have not been confined to weaponry. They’re moving quickly in the areas of semiconductor manufacturing, aeronautics, telecommunications and robotic manufacturing.

So U.S. sanctions have not only failed to stop Russia, but they have also prompted Russia to become a formidable competitor to the collective West.

I said in early 2022 right after the war began that U.S. sanctions would not only fail against Russia, but they would also boomerang and hurt the U.S.

The forecast has proved exactly right.

An Economic Blunder of Epic Proportions

As if Russian advances on the battlefield and Russian economic success were not enough, the U.S. may be about to commit the greatest economic blunder in history, one that could accelerate the flight from the U.S. dollar and destroy confidence in the U.S. Treasury securities market.

Here’s the backstory:

After several weeks of chaos in October, the House of Representatives finally elected a new speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, a mild-mannered but solidly conservative and relatively new member from Louisiana.

He got off to a good start by separating financial support for Israel from support for Ukraine. Both bills will probably pass, but by separating them, Johnson avoided the trap of having to vote for Ukraine in order to support Israel.

Many members support the latter but oppose the former, and now they can make their voices heard with separate votes. So far, so good.

Now Johnson has committed a blunder so egregious that it could rock the global financial system and cause a financial panic. Unfortunately, Johnson’s lack of experience in international monetary affairs has left him blind to the dangers.

Pure Stupidity

Right now, the U.S. holds about $300 billion of Russian assets that were frozen after the Ukraine war broke out in February 2022. Most of those assets came from the Central Bank of Russia and consist of U.S. Treasury securities.

Technically, those assets have not been converted to U.S. ownership. They have merely been frozen and still belong to Russia even though Russia cannot use them.

Now, Johnson wants to convert those assets to U.S. ownership and use the proceeds to pay for the war in Ukraine. Johnson said, “It would be pure poetry to fund the Ukrainian war effort with Russian assets.”

Pure stupidity is more like it. Such an action would amount to a default on U.S. government debt since the securities were legally owned by Russia. Nations around the world would take note and accelerate their dumping of Treasury securities and their flight from the U.S. dollar.

This would increase interest rates in the U.S. and hurt everyone from homebuyers to everyday consumers. It would make U.S. debt permanently more difficult to sell and less desirable to hold.

It would introduce a new risk premium on U.S. debt over and above the existing inflation premium. At its worst, it could trigger a dollar panic and full-scale flight from the dollar.

Johnson is playing with fire and has no idea what he is doing. Let’s hope he receives some sound advice before he goes too far.

Hamas and Israel

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has been more contained from a global economic perspective, but it also has potential to spin out of control and rock the global economy.

The potential for economic calamity in Gaza is not the fighting in Gaza itself but the possibility of escalation.

Israel faces an enemy 10 times more powerful than Hamas in the form of Hezbollah, which is located in Lebanon on Israel’s northern border, and which is heavily subsidized by Iran in terms of money, weapons and intelligence.

In addition to Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen are firing missiles at Israel. The Houthis are a direct Iranian proxy intended to threaten Saudi Arabia, but are equally capable of threatening Israel.

If Hezbollah and Houthi attacks on Israel escalate, Israel will not limit their response to those two groups. They are likely to launch attacks on Iran itself going to the root of the problem. At that point, Iran may fire missiles at Israel and close the Straits of Hormuz.

$150 Oil

In anticipation of that, the U.S. has moved two aircraft carrier battle groups to the Eastern Mediterranean and stationed one Ohio-class nuclear submarine in the Red Sea. The idea is to deter Iran from attacking Israel, but they can be used to attack Iran if the war escalates to that level.

Russia is watching on the sidelines and will support Iran if necessary.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two of the world’s largest energy producers, are caught in the middle.

If those escalation scenarios play out even in part, expect oil prices to go to $150 per barrel or higher. That would put the U.S. and Western Europe in a recession worse than 2008 and the earlier oil shock of 1974.

In the 1974 recession, the Dow Jones index fell 45%. That would equate to a crash of over 15,000 Dow points from today’s levels.

I’m not making a hard prediction that this scenario will occur, but don’t rule it out.

It’s a good time to reduce your exposure to stocks, keep a lot of cash on hand and get your hands on physical gold and silver.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/28/2023 - 12:10
Published:11/28/2023 11:39:44 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Gains 170 Points As Fed Officials Clash; Software Earnings Loom The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 170 points in afternoon trading Tuesday amid housing news for September. Investors also await a key inflation report as two Federal Reserve officials gave opposing views on the direction of interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.5%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.3% in the stock market today. Published:11/28/2023 11:39:44 AM
[Markets] Major Indexes Are Nearing 2023 Highs The stock market’s November rally has put the big three indexes in striking distance of their 2023 highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off just 0.4% from its 2023 high of 35,630.68 hit on Aug. 1. Published:11/28/2023 11:09:11 AM
[Markets] Boeing and Nike set pace as Dow industrials reverse Tuesday’s early decline Boeing and Nike set pace as Dow industrials reverse Tuesday’s early decline Published:11/28/2023 10:37:01 AM
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[Markets] Retail investors may be sending a bullish signal Investors may be feeling bullish heading into year's end, with searches for "Santa Claus rally" on the rise on Investopedia. Investopedia Editor-In-Chief Caleb SIlver says investors have not only been searching for information about the seasonal stock market pattern, but also the highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI). "People have been waiting to buy stocks all year," Silver tells Yahoo Finance Live's Diane King Hall and Seana Smith. Watch the video above to find out what else people are searching for on Investopedia. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live. Published:11/28/2023 9:54:24 AM
[Markets] Dow Turns Higher After Dovish Comments From Fed's Waller Stocks pared declines on Tuesday as the market reacted to [dovish comments](https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-waller-inflation-economy-8ca30ecd) from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 14 points. Published:11/28/2023 9:37:56 AM
[Markets] Yellow Flags Increase as Charts and Indicators Suggest Caution On the charts, the major equity indexes closed lower Monday with negative NYSE and Nasdaq internals as trading volumes rose from Friday's abbreviated session. Most closed near their session lows that saw the DJIA (see above) and Dow Jones Transports close below their near-term uptrend lines, shifting said trends to neutral from bullish and joining the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 in that condition. Cumulative market breadth has managed to stay positive for the All Exchange, NYSE and Nasdaq thus far. Published:11/28/2023 9:04:02 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls After Key Housing Data; Micron Slides On Guidance The Dow Jones fell Tuesday morning after key housing data. Micron stock slid on updated guidance, while Boeing jumped on an upgrade. Published:11/28/2023 8:39:32 AM
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[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Dip Ahead Of Key Housing Data; Boeing Jumps On Upgrade Dow Jones futures fell Tuesday morning ahead of key housing data. Boeing stock jumped on an analyst upgrade. Published:11/28/2023 7:12:44 AM
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[Markets] Dow Jones Dips As iRobot Stock Craters On This; 3 Strong Warren Buffett Stocks Are Near Entries The Dow Jones fell. iRobot stock plunged on acquisition news as Amazon stock gained. 3 Warren Buffett stocks are near entries. Tesla stock rose amid a lawsuit. Published:11/27/2023 3:36:32 PM
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[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall St pauses amid Cyber Monday madness; data, Fed speakers on tap Wall Street was mixed on Monday as investors took a post-Thanksgiving pause ahead of crucial economic data as the holiday shopping season kicked in to high gear with retailers trying to lure bargain hunters with Cyber Monday deals. The tech-heavy Nasdaq was slightly higher, the Dow was edging red and the S&P 500 was essentially unchanged, but leaning lower. Online shopping deals as part of Cyber Monday are expected to entice shoppers to spend a record $12 billion, according to Adobe Analytics, in the latest upbeat sign regarding the health of the American consumer, whose spending is responsible for about 70% of the U.S. GDP. Published:11/27/2023 1:35:40 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls On Weak China Data; 6 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped Monday on weak economic data out of China. AMD stock leads these six best stocks to buy and watch. Published:11/27/2023 8:36:36 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall On Weak China Data; 6 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures dropped Monday morning on weak economic data out of China. AMD stock leads these six best stocks to buy and watch. Published:11/27/2023 8:21:23 AM
[Markets] Is It Time to Buy These Duds of the Dow? 2023 has been a positive one for most members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Roughly one-third of the 30 stocks that make up that index are down by 5% or more this year, while the Dow has gained 6% through mid-November. Nike (NYSE: NKE) and Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) are two of these Dow laggards, declining 9% and 10%, respectively, so far in 2023. Published:11/26/2023 6:26:49 AM
[Markets] As Americans shop, stocks see another weekly win The Dow and S&P 500 show small gains, but the Nasdaq drops back slightly in a shortened day of trading after Thanksgiving. Still, the major averages moved up for a fourth straight week. Published:11/24/2023 2:28:12 PM
[Markets] Apple, IBM and Microsoft among just five Dow stocks in negative territory Apple, IBM and Microsoft among just five Dow stocks in negative territory Published:11/24/2023 9:39:01 AM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall St subdued in shortened Black Friday trading U.S. stock markets were shut on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, and Friday's session ends at 1:00 p.m. ET. At 9:50 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 66.60 points, or 0.19%, at 35,339.63, the S&P 500 was down 2.05 points, or 0.04%, at 4,554.57, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 34.41 points, or 0.24%, at 14,231.45. Among single stocks, Nvidia fell 1.1% after Reuters reported the chipmaker told customers in China it was delaying the launch of a new artificial intelligence chip to comply with U.S. export rules until the first quarter of next year. Published:11/24/2023 9:19:33 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises; Tesla Extends Losses And Nvidia Slides On AI Chip Delay The Dow Jones rose Friday, as the market headed for a four-week win streak. Tesla extended losses, while Nvidia sold off on an AI chip delay. Published:11/24/2023 8:35:19 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise; Nvidia Slides On AI Chip Delay Dow Jones futures rose Friday, as the stock market headed for a four-week win streak. Nvidia stock sold off on an AI chip delay. Published:11/24/2023 7:15:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As Microsoft Pops On Sam Altman Return; Cathie Wood Sells This Leader Up 250% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose. Microsoft stock popped amid Sam Altman's return as ChatGPT CEO. Cathie Wood sold a top stock. Published:11/22/2023 2:25:41 PM
[Markets] Dow Up Over 100 Points in Midday Trading Stocks were rising midday Wednesday, as the big three indexes were on track to bounce back from the prior day’s declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 137 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 was up 0. Published:11/22/2023 12:09:41 PM
[Markets] This Usually Wrong Group of Traders Were Short at the Lows. Now They're Long... Now, after an almost 3,000-point gain on the DJIA, we are starting to see some issues suggesting some degree of consolidation/retracement of said gains is becoming more likely. On the charts, the major equity indexes closed mostly lower Tuesday except for the Dow Jones Transports. Additionally, the cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange, NYSE and Nasdaq remain bullish as well. Published:11/22/2023 9:35:39 AM
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