Newsgeeker.com news site

Search:dow


   
[Markets] Why Marqeta Stock Was Surging Higher Today Marqeta (NASDAQ: MQ) saw its share price jump higher during trading on Wednesday afternoon. The stock price is down about 57% year to date. It was a good day overall as the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 565 points (1.9%), the S&P 500 was up 73 points (2%), and the Nasdaq was up 223 points (2.2%) as of 3:07 p.m. ET. Published:9/28/2022 3:00:55 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Jumps As Yields Plunge; This New Cathie Wood Buy Rockets; Bitcoin Rallies, Coinbase Jumps The Dow Jones powered higher. A Cathie Wood buy was surging as Biogen exploded. Coinbase stock jumped as Bitcoin rose. Apple stock dived. Published:9/28/2022 2:32:06 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises Ahead Of Powell Speech; 10-Year Treasury Yield Briefly Tops 4% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Wednesday, ahead of Fed chief Powell's speech, struggling to avoid a seventh straight decline. Published:9/28/2022 9:13:48 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Lower Ahead Of Powell Speech; 10-Year Treasury Yield Briefly Tops 4% Dow Jones futures pared early losses Wednesday, ahead of Fed chief Powell's speech, struggling to avoid a seventh straight decline. Published:9/28/2022 7:41:55 AM
[Markets] Consumer Confidence Rises in Spite of Challenged Conditions Recent economic headlines are enough to make Eeyores out of all of us. Yesterday the Dow Jones Industrial Average followed the S&P 500 into... Published:9/27/2022 9:40:01 PM
[Markets] Dow, S&P 500 end lower for sixth straight session on recession fears Dow, S&P 500 end lower for sixth straight session on recession fears Published:9/27/2022 4:47:59 PM
[Markets] S&P 500 Undercuts Bear Market Low As Treasury Yields Race Toward Key Level; What To Do Now The S&P 500 joined the Dow Jones in undercutting bear market lows as the 10-year Treasury yield races toward 4%. Here's what to do now. Published:9/27/2022 4:47:59 PM
[Markets] Stocks have give up their early gains as Dow adds to its bear-market losses Stocks have give up their early gains as Dow adds to its bear-market losses Published:9/27/2022 11:32:59 AM
[Markets] Stock market news live updates: Stocks extend losses after S&P 500 slides to 2022 low U.S. stocks turned lower following a morning bounce Tuesday after the S&P 500 slid to a new closing low and the Dow Jones Industrial Average entered an official bear market – a drop of 20% or more from a broad market index’s most recent high. Published:9/27/2022 11:32:59 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rebounds As 10-Year Treasury Yield Hits New 12-Year High; Tesla Races Higher The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied Tuesday after Monday's losses sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average into bear market territory. Published:9/27/2022 8:53:51 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rebound After Hitting Bear Market; 10-Year Treasury Yield Falls From 12-Year High Dow Jones futures rebounded Tuesday after Monday's losses sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average into bear market territory. Published:9/27/2022 7:50:41 AM
[Markets] Pound rises in Asian trading after record low - live updates Markets doubt Bailey can avoid emergency rate rise after plunge in pound FTSE 100 closing price: 7,020.95 Dow Jones 29,260.81; S&P 500 3,655.04 Ben Wright: Doomster Rishi Sunak was right about Trussonomics Sign up here for our daily business briefing newsletter Published:9/27/2022 12:47:10 AM
[Markets] Asian markets mixed after Dow falls into bear market Stocks were mixed in Asia on Tuesday after closing broadly lower on Wall Street, where the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell into what’s known as a bear market. Published:9/26/2022 10:53:43 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Hits Bear Market After Today's Sell-Off; What To Do Now Dow Jones futures were little changed ahead of Tuesday's open. The Dow Jones Industrial Average finished in a bear market Monday. Published:9/26/2022 4:45:10 PM
[Markets] Dow falls over 300 points to finish in bear market; S&P 500 ends at new 2022 low Dow falls over 300 points to finish in bear market; S&P 500 ends at new 2022 low Published:9/26/2022 3:56:43 PM
[Markets] U.S. stocks close lower, as S&P 500 carves out new 2022 low and Dow ends in bear market U.S. stocks closed lower Monday amid elevated market volatility, extending last week's losses as the S&P 500 sank to a new 2022 low. The S 500 dropped 1% to end around 3,655.52, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 1.1% and the Nasdaq Composite slid 0.6%, according to preliminary FactSet data. The SP 500 ended below its previous closing low this year of 3666.77 on June 16. Wall Street's fear gauge has climbed amid fears over the Federal Reserve aggressively raising interest rates to fight Published:9/26/2022 3:17:43 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls; IBD 50 Stock Bucks Trend; Nike, Micron, Bed Bath & Beyond on Deck Dow Jones falls, Nasdaq pares losses; IBD 50 stock hits buy point; personal consumption data and Micron earnings on tap. Published:9/26/2022 2:48:17 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall Street drops; S&P 500 relinquishes summer gains Wall Street slid further into bear market territory on Monday as investors fretted that the Federal Reserve's aggressive campaign against inflation could throw the U.S. economy into a sharp downturn. After two weeks of mostly steady losses on the U.S. stock market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was on the verge of confirming it has been in a bear market since early January. Published:9/26/2022 2:03:20 PM
[Markets] With the Dow down another 1%, stocks are on the cusp of an important test With the Dow down another 1%, stocks are on the cusp of an important test Published:9/26/2022 1:47:26 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls Amid British Pound Turmoil; Elon Musk Twitter Fight Takes This Step; Bitcoin Rallies The Dow Jones fell amid turmoil for the British pound. The fight between Tesla CEO Elon Musk and Twitter took another step. Bitcoin rallied. Published:9/26/2022 1:25:32 PM
[Markets] "Have They Gone Completely Mad?" They Know That They Are Killing The Economy, But They Are Doing It Anyway "Have They Gone Completely Mad?" They Know That They Are Killing The Economy, But They Are Doing It Anyway

Authored by Michael Snyder via The Economic Collapse Blog,

They know exactly what they are doing.  The “experts” that run the Federal Reserve know that if they dramatically hike interest rates it will cause countless American workers to lose their jobs and it will absolutely crush the housing market.  And even though those two things are already starting to happen, they just announced another massive rate hike.  If there was a school for central bankers, one of the very first things that they would teach you is that you should never, ever raise rates as an economy is plunging into a recession.  Every Fed official knows what has happened in the past when rates have been hiked at the beginning of an economic slowdown, but they are doing it anyway.  To call this “economic malpractice” would be a major understatement, and the American people should be deeply alarmed about what they are doing to us.

After everything that has already happened, it is hard to believe that Fed officials would continue to be so reckless.  On Wednesday, it was announced that rates would be raised by another 75 basis points

The Federal Reserve on Wednesday raised its benchmark interest rate by 75 basis points for the third straight month as it struggles to bring scorching-hot inflation under control, a move that threatens to slow U.S. economic growth and exacerbate financial pain for millions of households and businesses.

The three-quarter percentage point hikes in June, July and September — the most aggressive series of increases since 1994 — underscore just how serious Fed officials are about tackling the inflation crisis after a string of alarming economic reports. Policymakers voted unanimously to approve the latest super-sized hike.

It was a unanimous vote.

There wasn’t even one dissenting voice.

Have they gone completely mad?

Wall Street certainly did not like this decision.  The Dow plunged hundreds of points immediately after it was announced…

The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid 522.45 points, or 1.7%, to close at 30,183.78. The S&P 500 shed 1.71% to 3,789.93, and the Nasdaq Composite slumped 1.79% to 11,220.19.

The S&P ended Wednesday’s session down more than 10% in the past month and 21% off its 52-week high. Even before the rate decision, stocks were pricing in an aggressive tightening campaign by the Fed that could tip the economy into a recession.

For ages, the Fed coddled the financial markets, but now it is almost as if they don’t even care anymore.

Personally, I am far more concerned about what will happen to ordinary hard working Americans in the months ahead.  Even Jerome Powell is admitting that “an increase in unemployment” is likely because of what the Fed is doing…

“I think there’s a very high likelihood we will have a period of … much lower growth and it could give rise to an increase in unemployment,” he said.

Will that mean a recession?

“No one knows whether that process will lead to a recession or how significant a recession it will be,” Powell said. “I don’t know the odds.”

Actually, we are in a recession right now.

And Powell and his minions just made things a whole lot worse.

Even Democrats understand this.  After the rate hike was announced, Senator Elizabeth Warren went on Twitter and warned that “millions of Americans” could soon lose their jobs…

.@federalreserve’s Chair Powell just announced another extreme interest rate hike while forecasting higher unemployment. I’ve been warning that Chair Powell’s Fed would throw millions of Americans out of work — and I fear he’s already on the path to doing so.

This is one of the rare occasions when Elizabeth Warren is right on target.

As I have been documenting on my website for weeks, large numbers of Americans have already been getting laid off.

In fact, things are already so bad that even Facebook is trimming their numbers

As growth stalls and competition intensifies, Facebook parent Meta has begun quietly cutting staff by reorganizing departments, while giving ‘reorganized’ employees a narrow window to apply for other roles within the company, according to the Wall Street Journal, citing current and former managers familiar with the matter.

By shuffling people around, the company achieves staffing cuts “while forestalling the mass issuance of pink slips.”

So why would the Fed choose to raise rates when layoffs are already beginning to spike?

Higher rates are also having a devastating impact on the housing market.

This week, we learned that sales of existing homes have now fallen for seven months in a row

Home sales declined for the seventh month in a row in August as higher mortgage rates and stubbornly high prices pushed prospective buyers out of the market.

Sales of existing homes — which include single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops — were down 19.9% from a year ago and down 0.4% from July, according to a report from the National Association of Realtors.

Someone should start putting “Jerome Powell did this” stickers on for sale signs all over the nation.

Because this didn’t have to happen.

Now the housing market is already in a “deep recession”, and the Fed just keeps making things even worse…

The prolonged downturn in confidence shows the housing market has been “in a tailspin for the whole of this year,” according to Pantheon Macroeconomics chief economist Ian Shepherdson.

“Activity tracks mortgage applications with a lag, and the early September numbers are grim, even before the full hit from the rebound in mortgage rates in recent weeks works through,” Shepherdson said in a note to clients on Monday.

“In short, the housing market is in a deep recession, which is already hammering homebuilders and will soon depress housing-related retail sales,” he added.

The Fed seems determined to kill the economy.

But why?

Why would they do this?

One analyst that was just quoted by Fox Business is warning that “times are going to get tougher from here”…

“With the new rate projections, the Fed is engineering a hard landing — a soft landing is almost out of the question,” said Seema Shah, chief global strategist of Principal Global Investors. “Powell’s admission that there will be below-trend growth for a period should be translated as central bank speak for ‘recession.’ Times are going to get tougher from here.”

Yes, times are definitely going to get tougher from here.

In fact, we are eventually headed for a meltdown of epic proportions.

But instead of working to prevent a historic crisis, the Federal Reserve is actually encouraging one.

The American people deserve some answers, because there is something about all of this that really stinks.

Tyler Durden Sat, 09/24/2022 - 09:10
Published:9/24/2022 9:04:04 AM
[Markets] Dow ends down nearly 500 points Friday, off 4% for week as recession fears mount Dow ends down nearly 500 points Friday, off 4% for week as recession fears mount Published:9/23/2022 4:49:54 PM
[In The News] Fearing Fed, Stocks Tumble And Major Investor Slashes Expectations

by John Hugh DeMastri at CDN -

All three major U.S. stock indices fell Friday morning as investors worried that the Federal Reserve’s ongoing campaign of aggressive interest rate hikes would weaken the economy. With Friday poised to be the fourth day in a row of slumping stocks, the Dow Jones Industrial average fell by 1.36%, the …

Click to read the rest HERE-> Fearing Fed, Stocks Tumble And Major Investor Slashes Expectations first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:9/23/2022 12:21:16 PM
[Markets] UPDATE 1-Dow poised to confirm bear market as recession fears mount The blue-chip Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 20% from its peak close in January and was on track to confirm a bear market on Friday, as investors shunned risk assets on fears of a recession triggered by a rapid pace of interest rate hikes. If the index closes 20% below its all-time closing high of 36,799.65 points hit on Jan. 4, it would confirm a bear market, according to a widely used definition. The Dow would be the last of the three main indexes to confirm a bear market. Published:9/23/2022 12:21:16 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS SNAPSHOT-Dow on pace to confirm bear market, falls 20% from record close The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down more than 20% from its Jan. 4 record closing high on Friday, putting it on track to confirm a bear market at the close. The index would confirm it has been in a bear market if it ends more than 20% below the record closing high, according to a widely used definition. The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly slipped below 29,439.72, the minimum level it needs to close at to confirm a bear market. Published:9/23/2022 11:40:58 AM
[Markets] Dow down 500 points at midday, hitting a nearly 2-year low Dow down 500 points at midday, hitting a nearly 2-year low Published:9/23/2022 10:52:42 AM
[] 'No mean tweets though'! Dow Jones drops below 30,000 and Tweeps can't wait to 'THANK' Joe Biden Published:9/23/2022 10:52:41 AM
[Markets] Dow hits near 2-year low on recession worries The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points earlier this week and vowed to keep going until inflation was in check, in line with the monetary policy tightening stance by many central banks around the globe. At 10:08 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 408.50 points, or 1.36%, at 29,668.18, after briefly falling before below this year's low of 29,653.29 points on June 17. The S&P 500 was down 65.07 points, or 1.73%, at 3,692.92, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 220.27 points, or 1.99%, at 10,846.54. Published:9/23/2022 9:42:53 AM
[Markets] Dow hits near 2-year low on recession worries The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit a near two-year low on Friday, the first major U.S. stock index to fall below its June trough on an intraday basis and mark a new low for the year, following fears of an economic slump brought on by aggressive interest rate hikes. The U.S. Federal Reserve raised interest rates by 75 basis points earlier this week and vowed to keep going until inflation was in check, in line with the monetary policy tightening stance by many central banks around the globe. At 10:08 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 408.50 points, or 1.36%, at 29,668.18, after briefly falling before below this year's low of 29,653.29 points on June 17. Published:9/23/2022 9:27:27 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Sells Off Ahead Of Powell Comments As Recession Fears Mount The Dow Jones Industrial Average sold off Friday ahead of Fed chief Powell's comments at a Federal Reserve event in Washington D.C. Published:9/23/2022 8:54:45 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Sell Off Ahead Of Powell Comments As Recession Fears Mount Dow Jones futures dived Friday morning ahead of Fed chief Jerome Powell's comments at a Federal Reserve event in Washington D.C. Published:9/23/2022 7:49:48 AM
[Markets] Dow futures point to near 400-point drop on Fed tightening view Dow futures point to near 400-point drop on Fed tightening view Published:9/23/2022 7:04:31 AM
[Opinion] Powell Won’t Admit How America Got Into Such Dire Economic Straits In The First Place

by Carrie Sheffield at CDN -

Jerome Powell

The Federal Reserve’s decision to raise target interest rates by 75 basis points for the third time this year following a Wednesday meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee all but ensures American families’ financial pain will continue and our current recession will likely drag on. The Dow market closed 500 points …

Click to read the rest HERE-> Powell Won’t Admit How America Got Into Such Dire Economic Straits In The First Place first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:9/22/2022 4:46:56 PM
[Markets] 3 Cheap Dow Jones Stocks to Buy Right Now The Dow Jones contains some incredible companies that are trading for the cheapest they have in a long time. Published:9/22/2022 5:06:51 AM
[Markets] Dow finishes down over 500 points as investors assess Fed rate outlook Dow finishes down over 500 points as investors assess Fed rate outlook Published:9/21/2022 3:08:14 PM
[] The Fed Raises Interest Rates by 0.75%;The Propaganda Media Pretends It's The Fed That's Choking the Economy, Rather Than Biden's Toxic Profligacy That Forced The Fed to Impose Higher Interest Rates The Fed raised interest rates by 0.75% again. This is the third time they've raised it by three quarters of a point. The Dow has fallen 428 points as of 3:53pm EST. The Atlanta Fednow tracker for GDP projection has... Published:9/21/2022 3:08:14 PM
[Markets] Dow down 377 points as stocks swing back to downside after Fed hike U.S. stocks remained lower in the final half-hour of trade Wednesday after sinking to new session lows. Major indexes saw big swings, giving up gains to trade lower after the Federal Reserve raised the fed funds rate by 75 basis points as expected but pointed to a higher peak in rates than anticipated next year. Stocks then swung between gains and losses during Fed Chair Jerome Powell's news conference before sliding back to new lows. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 377 points, or 1.2% Published:9/21/2022 2:51:20 PM
[Markets] 10 Dow Jones Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds In this article, we will take a look at the 10 Dow Jones Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. To skip our analysis of the Dow Jones Industrial Average Index, its performance, and weighting of the components, you can go directly to see the 5 Dow Jones Stocks to Buy According to Hedge Funds. […] Published:9/21/2022 2:19:52 PM
[Markets] Federal Reserve Expects Key Rate To Peak At 4.6%; Dow Jones Falls As Treasury Yields Spike The Federal Reserve hiked its key interest rate 75 basis points on Wednesday and signaled much more to come. The Dow Jones industrial average reversed lower after release of the Fed meeting policy statement and projections at 2 p.m. ET. Federal Reserve chief Jerome Powell will elaborate on the outlook for interest rates and the U.S. economy at his 2:30 p.m. news conference. Published:9/21/2022 1:42:57 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Fed Decision, Powell Comments Dow Jones futures rose Wednesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's interest rate decision and Fed Chairman Jerome Powell's press conference. Published:9/21/2022 7:37:04 AM
[Markets] Stocks have fallen to the lows of the day with the Dow down nearly 500 points Stocks have fallen to the lows of the day with the Dow down nearly 500 points Published:9/20/2022 1:12:55 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Sells Off Ahead Of Fed Meeting; Treasury Yields Jump; Ford Dives 10% On Inflation Warning The Dow Jones Industrial Average sold off 350 points Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. Published:9/20/2022 9:32:40 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Fed Meeting; Treasury Yields Jump; Ford Tumbles On Inflation Warning Dow Jones futures dropped Tuesday morning ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting, as the 10-year Treasury yield jumped. Published:9/20/2022 7:38:57 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Fed Meeting Looms; What To Do In New Stock Market Correction Dow Jones futures were little changed after Monday's stock market rally ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day policy meeting. Published:9/19/2022 7:20:48 PM
[Markets] Nike leads way as Dow industrials reverse decline to post triple-digit rise Nike leads way as Dow industrials reverse decline to post triple-digit rise Published:9/19/2022 11:37:36 AM
[Markets] 2 Good-News Stocks on a Frightful Friday Halloween is still six weeks away, but that didn't stock the stock market from giving investors a big scare this week. Further weakness on Friday sent the major market indexes to steep declines from where they were this time last week, including a 4% fall for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), a nearly 5% drop for the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and a 5.5% hit to the Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC). Investors in Texas Instruments (NASDAQ: TXN) and Pfizer (NYSE: PFE) can't say that they saw big moves on Friday, but the fact that they avoided losses was noteworthy in and of itself. Published:9/16/2022 5:35:26 PM
[Markets] Nasdaq Composite heads for biggest weekly drop since January as U.S. stocks trade down Friday The technology-heavy Nasdaq Composite is heading for its biggest weekly loss since January as U.S. stocks remained down in the final hour of trading Friday. The Nasdaq is on track to lose 5.7% this week, FactSet data show, at last check. That puts it on track for the largest percentage drop since the stretch ending Jan. 21, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Stocks were slumping Friday afternoon amid heightened fears the U.S. may be heading for a recession after FedEx delivered a profit warning Published:9/16/2022 2:51:15 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall, FedEx Dives; Stock Market Set To Break Key Level As Bull Case Turns Bearish Dow Jones futures: The stock market is still reeling from the Fed bull case turning into bigger rate hikes for longer. FedEx dived on earnings. Published:9/16/2022 6:47:22 AM
[Markets] Indexes Sink Into The Close; Energy Stocks Lead Downside In IBD 50 The Dow Jones reversed brief intraday gains and closed lower while the Nasdaq led the downside among indexes. Several energy names sold off. Published:9/15/2022 3:52:49 PM
[Markets] Railroad stocks rally after strike averted, to provide a big boost to the Dow transports Shares of railroad operators rallied in premarket trading Thursday, after a railway strike was averted as the White House said a tentative deal has been reached. Shares of CSX Corp. jumped 3.2% ahead of the open, Union Pacific Corp. climbed 3.5% and Norfolk Southern Corp. hiked up 1.7%. The combined implied price gains of those stock would add about 78 points to the Dow Jones Transportation Average's price, which would represent a 0.6% gain. The Dow transports had fallen 4.2% the past two days a Published:9/15/2022 5:39:26 AM
[] The Morning Report — 9/14/22 Good morning kids. Wednesday and happy days are here again! The Inflation Reduction Act has finally kicked in. Except in Soviet America, inflation reduce YOU! The Dow took an absolute shit of over 1,000 points on the "unexpected" news that... Published:9/14/2022 6:51:16 AM
[2022 Election] I’ve Seen Gaslighting and I’ve Seen the Stock Market Tank (John Hinderaker) The Dow was down 1,276 points today, or 4%. Why? The August inflation number came in worse than expected: The new data showed the consumer-price index rose 8.3% in August from the same month a year ago. That was down from 8.5% in July and 9.1% in June—the highest inflation rate in four decades. But on a month-to-month basis, the figures showed inflation accelerating in August, dashing investors’ hopes that Published:9/13/2022 8:46:47 PM
[Markets] Dow ends down nearly 1,300 points in stocks' worst day since June 2020 Dow ends down nearly 1,300 points in stocks' worst day since June 2020 Published:9/13/2022 6:02:43 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Plunges Amid Hot Inflation; Twitter Up After Elon Musk Vote; Coinbase Tumbles As Bitcoin Dives The Dow Jones plummeted amid hot inflation data. Twitter stock rose after an Elon Musk deal vote. Apple stock dived. Bitcoin melted. Published:9/13/2022 1:18:54 PM
[Markets] Boeing, Intel and Nike are sharpest Dow decliners as index sheds 850 points Boeing, Intel and Nike are sharpest Dow decliners as index sheds 850 points Published:9/13/2022 11:05:23 AM
[Markets] Wall Street's 'fear gauge' surges as Nasdaq heads for worst day since June The CBOE Volatility Index, otherwise known as the VIX, or Wall Street's "fear gauge", surged Tuesday morning as U.S. stocks plunged in the wake of a "game-changing" August inflation report. The VIX, which is derived from movements in near-dated S&P 500 options, was up nearly 9% on the session at 26 as U.S. stocks headed for their worst session in at least three weeks. The S&P 500 was off 126 points, or 3.1%, to trade at 3,982, as gauge was headed for its worst session since Aug. 26. The Dow Jone Published:9/13/2022 11:05:23 AM
[Markets] Dow futures down some 500 points as CPI data reflect persistence of inflation Dow futures down some 500 points as CPI data reflect persistence of inflation Published:9/13/2022 8:53:15 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dives 600 Points On Hot Inflation Report; Apple, Tesla Drop The Dow Jones Industrial Average dived 600 points on Tuesday's hot inflation report — the Labor Department's consumer price index, or CPI. Published:9/13/2022 8:53:15 AM
[Markets] Dow ends up over 200 points ahead of August inflation reading Dow ends up over 200 points ahead of August inflation reading Published:9/12/2022 3:27:44 PM
[Markets] CPI Inflation Rate Is Sliding, But This Is What Matters For The Fed And Dow Jones Tuesday's CPI report could show the inflation rate falling to 8%, but it will take more than that to satisfy the Fed and lift the Dow Jones. Published:9/12/2022 3:27:44 PM
[Markets] Dow ends up nearly 400 points Friday as stocks notch weekly gains Dow ends up nearly 400 points Friday as stocks notch weekly gains Published:9/10/2022 12:42:00 AM
[Markets] A strong market rally could be just weeks away if the U.S. midterm elections can put anxious stock investors at ease If the U.S. midterm election cycle this year is like past ones, the stock market will carve out an important low right around Election Day in November. This pattern is plotted in the chart below, which is based on the average July-December performance of the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) in the last 17 midterm election years (since 1954). Much depends on when the stock market begins to anticipate the outcome of the midterms and therefore discounts it. Published:9/10/2022 12:42:00 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Powell Speech; AMD, First Solar Rally On Buy Ratings Dow Jones futures were higher Thursday morning ahead of Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's speech — scheduled for 9:10 a.m. ET. Published:9/8/2022 7:31:51 AM
[Markets] Indexes Keep Rising While Oil Sinks; Apple Unveils New Products At 'Far Out' Event The Dow Jones traded higher while the Nasdaq led the upside. Apple unveiled new products at 'Far Out' product launch. Published:9/7/2022 1:24:25 PM
[Markets] Apple's stock reverses lower, on cue, ahead of iPhone event Shares of Apple Inc. fell 0.2% in midday trading Wednesday ahead of the start of the technology behemoth's iPhone 14 event, reversing an earlier gain of as much as 0.9%. According to data provided by Dow Jones Market Data, the stock's average move on the day of iPhone events has been a decline of 0.5%. And since the first iPhone was first announced in 2007, the data shows the stock has gained on the day of announcement just four times, after the announcements for the first iPhone, the iPhone 5, Published:9/7/2022 11:45:27 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall; Apple iPhone 14 To Debut; Tesla Rival Nio Skids On Earnings Dow Jones futures traded lower Wednesday morning. Apple stock nudged higher ahead of its "Far Out" iPhone 14 launch event. Published:9/7/2022 8:00:31 AM
[Markets] 4 Stocks To Watch In Today's Stock Market, Including Dow Jones Leader Apple Dow Jones tech titan Apple is building a new base ahead of the company's "Far Out" event. Published:9/6/2022 12:33:04 PM
[Markets] UnitedHealth stock rally after missing out on Signify adds more than 50 points to the Dow's price Shares of UnitedHealth Group Inc. surged 1.6% in morning trading Tuesday, enough to pace the Dow Jones Industrial Average's gainers, after the health care services and benefits company missed out on the deal to buy home-health provider Signify Health Inc. , which is currently valued at $6.81 billion. UnitedHealth stock's price gain of $8.18 was adding about 54 points to the Dow's price, while the Dow was up 35 points, or 0.1%. Earlier Tuesday, CVS Health Corp. announced a deal to buy Signify in Published:9/6/2022 10:58:15 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Economic Data; Oil Prices Erase Surprise Production Cut Gains Dow Jones futures climbed Tuesday ahead of key economic data. U.S oil prices were flat despite OPEC+'s surprise production cut. Published:9/6/2022 7:57:11 AM
[Markets] 2 Software Stocks Bucking the Market's Drop Friday Early Friday, it seemed as though Wall Street had gotten exactly what it wanted, with an employment report that signaled solid job growth without signs of an overheating economy. Yet even though the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) all headed higher in the morning, they lost ground near the close, and all finished the day lower by more than 1%. Published:9/2/2022 6:22:35 PM
[Markets] U.S. stocks on track for biggest blown lead since April in final hour of trading The S&P 500 is on track to book its biggest blown lead since April as the broad-market index is down nearly 1% in the last hour of trading on Friday, as news of a prolonged halt of natural gas flows through a key Russian pipeline rattles global markets, causing stocks to shake off earlier gains. The S 500 is down 28 points, or 0.7%, to 3,937 in recent trade, after being up 1.3% at the highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has shed 210 points, or 0.7%, to 31,445.24, reversing an earlier gain of Published:9/2/2022 2:43:20 PM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks zoom up, dollar retreats on US jobs data World stocks rallied on Friday while the U.S. dollar retreated from a 24-year high on the yen, after data that showed the U.S. labour market is starting to loosen assuaged investor fears about aggressive interest rate hikes from the Federal Reserve. U.S. employers hired more workers than expected in August, but moderate wage growth and a rise in the unemployment rate to 3.7% could ease pressure on the Federal Reserve to deliver a third 75 basis point interest rate hike this month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped 1%, and the Nasdaq Composite climbed 1.2%. Published:9/2/2022 10:42:41 AM
[Markets] Small-cap Russell 2000 lags major-index gains The small-cap Russell 2000 was lagging behind its large-cap peers Friday as equities pushed higher following an August jobs report that saw payrolls rise in line with expectations and the unemployment rate tick up to 3.7% from 3.5%. The Russell 2000 was up 0.5% after dipping into negative territory, while the large-cap benchmark S&P 500 rallied 1.1%, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 278 points, or 0.9%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 1.1%. Published:9/2/2022 9:54:14 AM
[Markets] Dow downgraded again, but high dividend yield keeps analyst from turning bearish Shares of Dow Inc. dropped Friday, putting them in danger of suffering a sixth-straight loss, after another Wall Street analyst downgraded the chemicals and specialty materials company, citing concerns over falling commodity chemical prices. Published:9/2/2022 9:20:49 AM
[Markets] Should You Buy the Dow Jones' 4 Worst-Performing 2022 Stocks? Any investor can tell you that 2022 has been a rough year for the stock market. As of Aug. 31, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is down by 13% for the year, and we still have four months to go. While this is certainly poor performance, there are some Dow components in far worse shape. Published:9/2/2022 5:48:16 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls On Weak Jobs Data; HP Sinks On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Wednesday on weak jobs data, as the stock market looked to halt a three-day losing streak. Published:8/31/2022 9:21:13 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After Weak Jobs Data; HP Sinks On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Wednesday morning after ADP's private payrolls data, as the stock market looked to halt a three-day losing streak. Published:8/31/2022 7:50:54 AM
[Markets] Dow finishes down over 180 points as stocks extend selloff Dow finishes down over 180 points as stocks extend selloff Published:8/29/2022 9:53:21 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: What To Do As Stock Market Weakness Continues; Jobs Report Ahead Dow Jones futures were little changed, as the stock market weakness continued Monday. The August jobs report is due out Friday. Published:8/29/2022 9:53:21 PM
[Markets] Dow off 400 points after Powell warns of collateral damage from inflation battle Dow off 400 points after Powell warns of collateral damage from inflation battle Published:8/26/2022 10:25:58 AM
[Markets] Dow sheds 400 points, stocks drop after Fed's Powell warns of more pain from inflation fight U.S. stocks tumbled Friday to session lows after Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell delivered blunt remarks on the pain the U.S. inflation fight likely will cause households and businesses at the annual Jackson Hole, Wyoming economic summit. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 406 points, or 1.2%, trading near 32,880, while the S&P 500 was off 1.6% and the Nasdaq Composite Index was off 1.9%. Powell said Friday that there will "very likely be some softening of labor market conditions," Published:8/26/2022 9:51:25 AM
[Markets] Stocks fall, Treasury yields climb as Fed's Powell vows to fight inflation until 'job is done' U.S. stocks tumbled Friday morning as Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said the Federal Reserve's efforts to combat inflation might lead to economic pain for American families, but that "we must keep at it until the job is done." The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 140 points, or 0.4%, to 33,164. The S&P 500 fell 24 points, or 0.6%, to 4,174. The Nasdaq Composite retreated 96 points, or 0.8%, to 12,544. Treasury yields rose in response to Powell's remarks, with the largest increase seen Published:8/26/2022 9:25:43 AM
[Markets] 10 Best Dogs of the Dow to Invest In In this article, we discuss 10 best Dogs of the Dow to invest in. You can skip our detailed analysis of Dogs of the Dow investment strategy and its returns, and go directly to read 5 Best Dogs of the Dow to Invest In. ‘Dogs of the Dow’ is an investment strategy that focuses on the […] Published:8/26/2022 8:11:39 AM
[Markets] Bonds & Stocks Bid Despite Rate-Hawknado Ahead Of J-Hole Pow-Wow Bonds & Stocks Bid Despite Rate-Hawknado Ahead Of J-Hole Pow-Wow

Another wave of hawkish FedSpeak today (George, Bostic, Harker, and Bullard in increasingly ominous policy terms) prompted further tightening in STIRs...

Source: Bloomberg

...but stocks (once again) just shrugged it off as hope remains that Powell punts tomorrow...

Source: Bloomberg

If there is still anyone left believing that Powell will pivot tomorrow, they are in cloud cuckoo-land - he would have to completely reject the words of at least six Fed presidents in the last two days who have expressed nothing but 'higher for longer' rates as a possibility.

Will Powell go 'full Leeroy Jenkins' on the market?

The market is pricing a peak terminal rate for this cycle at around 3.79% in March 2023 before rate-cuts begin (but all the FedSpeak today signaled that was unlikely - more aggressive hikes then pause was the narrative, not a hike and cut flip-flop)...

Source: Bloomberg

Why are they desperate? Simple - financial conditions are now 'easier' than when The Fed actually started 'tightening'...

Source: Bloomberg

The Dow lagged on the day (thanks to weakness in Salesforce) but had a positive performance while Nasdaq and Small Caps led the pre-Powell surge. In the last hour, the "we know something you don't know" panic-buying accelerated into the close. Futures were bid aggressively at both the EU cash open and the US cash open...

"Most Shorted" stocks surged once again today...

Source: Bloomberg

Very strong 7Y auction (after ugly auctions earlier in the week) helped extend gains in bond land today... but the short-end (2Y) dramatically underperformed...

Source: Bloomberg

The 10Y Yield dropped back near 3.00% today...

Source: Bloomberg

All of which flattened the yield curve (2s30s) dramatically...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar extended yesterday's slide, but was bid into and across the European open (like it has been for the last few days)

Source: Bloomberg

Bitcoin chopped around today to close practically unchanged around $21500...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil prices slipped lower today...

European NatGas continued its explosion higher, now trading at a stunning $533 per barrel of oil equivalent...

Source: Bloomberg

And some more context, Germans are paying the equivalent of $1200/barrel of oil for their electricity demands (1Y ahead)...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, the discount for Russian (Urals) crude below Brent is tightening...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold managed modest gains on the day with overnight gains being dumped as US opened...

Finally, Bloomberg reports that a measure of aggregate profit margins improved in the period to 15.5% -- the most since 1950 -- from 14% in the first three months of the year.

Source: Bloomberg

This won't last... unless government intervention has finally killed capitalism.

Tyler Durden Thu, 08/25/2022 - 16:00
Published:8/25/2022 4:54:51 PM
[Markets] Dow finishes up over 300 points ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech Dow finishes up over 300 points ahead of Powell's Jackson Hole speech Published:8/25/2022 4:54:51 PM
[Markets] Stocks & Bond Yields Jump As Hawknado Holds Ahead Of J-Hole Stocks & Bond Yields Jump As Hawknado Holds Ahead Of J-Hole

More dismal data today (pending home sales and durable goods orders) sparked some 'dovish' moves in stocks BUT the hawkish un-pivot in STIRs was very evident again with both rate-hikes and the subsequent rate-cuts both shifting notably hawkish...

Source: Bloomberg

But stocks didn't care as the algos bought the bad news (and gave it all back) before stabilizing and clinging to the green. The last hour saw the usual algo chaos with a quick buying-panic lifting The Dow green. Small Caps outperformed followed by Nasdaq and S&P...

Bonds saw more monkey-hammering with yields up 5-7bps across most of the curve but the 2Y underperforming (+10bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

10Y Yields are up 4 days in a row, pushing well above 3.00% to 2-month highs...

Source: Bloomberg

The 2Y yield rallied up to 3.40% - its highest since the FOMC meeting on June 15th...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar rallied today, retracing around half of yesterday's weakness...

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos ended higher on the day with Bitcoin bouncing back up to $21,800...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold was relatively volatile today but ended higher...

EU NatGas topped EUR300/mWh for the first time in history. For context that is equivalent to a $510 barrel of crude oil...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil was very choppy today amid various Iran deal headlines and the DOE Inventory/Demand data, but ended higher with WTI near $95...

Retail pump prices continue to slide but it is due to turn higher soon (Diesel prices ended their near record losing streak today)...

Source: Bloomberg

Finally, we note that the US equity market's term structure shows no signs of any expectations for excess volatility surrounding the Midterm elections...

Source: Goldman Sachs

We suspect that will change soon...

Tyler Durden Wed, 08/24/2022 - 16:00
Published:8/24/2022 3:27:46 PM
[Markets] Market Snapshot: U.S. stocks waver between gains and losses as Dow heads for 4th straight loss U.S. stocks waver between gains and losses in early trading Wednesday as the Dow lagged, leaving the blue-chip benchmark on track for a fourth day in the red. Published:8/24/2022 9:20:19 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As Tesla Climbs Ahead Of 3:1 Stock Split The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Wednesday, extending a losing streak. Tesla stock climbed ahead of Thursday's 3:1 stock split. Published:8/24/2022 9:06:37 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall As Tesla Climbs Ahead Of 3:1 Stock Split Dow Jones futures fell Wednesday, looking to snap a three-day losing streak. Tesla stock climbed ahead of Thursday's 3:1 stock split. Published:8/24/2022 7:57:14 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise As Tesla Climbs Ahead Of 3:1 Stock Split Dow Jones futures rose Wednesday, looking to snap a three-day losing streak. Tesla stock climbed ahead of Thursday's 3:1 stock split. Published:8/24/2022 7:39:08 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Market Rally Struggling; Apple, These 5 EV Plays Are Near Buy Points Dow Jones futures were little changed overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally closed slightly lower on Tuesday after big retreats in the prior two sessions. Investors seem to be cautious about making big bets ahead of Fed chief Jerome Powell's big Jackson Hole speech on Friday. Apple (AAPL) is carving a handle, lowering... Published:8/23/2022 6:22:21 PM
[Markets] Dow ends down over 150 points, falling for third straight session Dow ends down over 150 points, falling for third straight session Published:8/23/2022 3:15:27 PM
[Markets] This One Index Can Lead Young Investors to Millionaire Land The U.S. stock has three major indexes: The Nasdaq Composite, Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), and the S&P 500. The Nasdaq Composite is majority tech companies, consisting of almost all the companies listed on the Nasdaq stock exchange. The DJIA is very small with only 30 companies, but almost all of them are household names. Published:8/23/2022 4:55:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: What To Do After Today's Stock Market Plunge; Powell Speech Ahead; Zoom Video Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures were higher after Monday's stock market plunge ahead of Fed chief Powell's speech from Jackson Hole on Friday. Published:8/22/2022 6:57:15 PM
[Markets] Dow industrials down 2% heading into final hour of trading All three major U.S. stock indexes were down by 2% or greater in the last hour of trading, and poised for their worst declines since June. Stocks dropped across every sector as rates across the Treasury curve surged above 3% in anticipation of continued aggressive rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. The declines would amount to the worst for Dow industrials and the S&P 500 since June 16, and the worst for the Nasdaq Composite since June 28, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Published:8/22/2022 2:20:40 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Drops After Stock Market Sell-Off The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 300 points Monday morning, threatening to extend losses from Friday's stock market sell-off. Published:8/22/2022 8:56:34 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Pares Losses; Netflix, Disney, Amazon, Google Top Names As Streaming Outpaces Cable TV The Dow Jones Industrial Average trimmed some losses in afternoon trading Friday as investors faced rising Treasury yields and a rise in oil prices. Published:8/19/2022 1:25:30 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Signal Market Rally Pullback, Bitcoin Tumbles; BBBY Stock Dives In Reversion To The Meme Dow Jones futures fell as the market rally pulls back with Bitcoin tumbling. BBBY stock dived in a "reversion to the meme." Published:8/19/2022 6:20:11 AM
[Markets] Cisco leads the way as Dow industrials push into positive territory Cisco leads the way as Dow industrials push into positive territory Published:8/18/2022 1:40:46 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Slips; Cisco Trumps Views; Solar Stocks Break Out The Dow Jones Industrial Average tested early lows on Thursday afternoon, posting a 0.3% loss. A rally in tech stocks kept a floor under the Nasdaq composite, which is trading slightly higher at this hour. Volume fell on the NYSE and Nasdaq in quiet trading, compared to the same time on Wednesday. The Russell 2000 small-cap index has whipsawed through... Published:8/18/2022 1:40:45 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls After Key Economic Data; BBBY Stock Plunges 28% The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Thursday after key economic data. BBBY stock dived after RC Ventures disclosed a plan to sell shares. Published:8/18/2022 10:07:02 AM
[Markets] Dow snaps win streak, Nasdaq drops 1% following Fed minutes Dow snaps win streak, Nasdaq drops 1% following Fed minutes Published:8/17/2022 3:30:08 PM
[Markets] Federal Reserve Meeting Minutes: No Hawkish Surprises; Dow Jones Cuts Losses July's Fed meeting wasn't quite as dovish as first believed, but the minutes didn't raise a yellow flag for the Dow Jones. Published:8/17/2022 2:22:58 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Lower Ahead Of Fed Minutes; Retail Sales Miss Expectations; Apple, Costco Near Buy Points The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed in the first hour of Wednesday's session after clearing a key price level on Tuesday. The blue chip index ticked 0.6% lower in the opening minutes while the S&P 500 slipped 0.8%. The Nasdaq composite led the downside, shedding more than 1%, held down by small caps. This is evident in the Russell 2000,... Published:8/17/2022 9:53:35 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Slide Ahead Of Fed Minutes, Retail Sales; BBBY Stock Surges 30% Dow Jones futures dropped 200 points Wednesday ahead of the highly anticipated Fed minutes from the central bank's latest policy meeting, Published:8/17/2022 7:40:01 AM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow, S&P 500 climb as upbeat results from Walmart, others boost optimism The Dow and S&P 500 rose on Tuesday as stronger-than-expected results and outlooks from Walmart and Home Depot bolstered views on the health of consumers, while technology shares declined and weighed on the Nasdaq. The S&P 500 consumer discretionary and staples sectors gave the benchmark index its biggest lift, while the S&P 500 retail index rose 1.9%. Published:8/16/2022 4:37:04 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up On Walmart Earnings; Coinbase Slumps As Bitcoin Falls; Elon Musk Scores This Twitter Win The Dow Jones rose on Walmart earnings. Coinbase stock dipped as Bitcoin struggled. Tesla CEO Elon Musk scored a win in his Twitter fight. Published:8/16/2022 4:03:45 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P 500 near unchanged; Walmart and other retailers gain The S&P 500 was near flat in late trading on Tuesday as Walmart and Home Depot gained following stronger-than-expected results and outlooks, while technology shares declined. The Dow was solidly higher and the Nasdaq was down. Published:8/16/2022 2:20:01 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Retakes Key Level As Walmart and Home Depot Surge On Earnings; 4 Energy Stocks To Watch The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose nearly 300 points Tuesday, as Walmart and Home Depot surged on better-than-expected earnings results. Published:8/16/2022 1:29:44 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow edges up on retail earnings boost The Dow inched higher on Tuesday as results from Walmart and Home Depot lifted the retail sector, while a slide in megacap growth stocks and signs of a slowing global economy weighed on the Nasdaq and the S&P 500. Boosting the blue-chip Dow, Walmart Inc rose 5.3% as the world's largest retailer forecast a smaller drop in full-year profit than previously projected. Published:8/16/2022 9:59:15 AM
[Markets] Dow ends up 150 points as stocks shake off fears over China's slowing economy Dow ends up 150 points as stocks shake off fears over China's slowing economy Published:8/15/2022 6:37:25 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Fed Minutes, Home Depot, Walmart Earnings Up Next Dow Jones futures were quiet late Monday. Home Depot and Walmart earnings are due out Tuesday followed by Wednesday's Fed minutes. Published:8/15/2022 6:37:25 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones, Other Indexes Extend Gains; These 2 Stocks Top Buy Points; Apple Nears Entry The Dow Jones Industrial Average added to its gains in the afternoon session today. The index opened 0.4% higher and is up 0.8%. The S&P 500 ticked higher from a 0.5% gain earlier to up 1% in afternoon trading. Published:8/12/2022 1:14:45 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Off Highs But Still Positive; Disinflation Data Fuels Upside The Nasdaq pulled back the most, paring earlier gains while the Dow Jones also came off highs. Disney stock led the upside among blue chips. Published:8/11/2022 1:28:36 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On Encouraging Economic Numbers; Disney Subscriptions Outnumber Netflix The Dow Jones industrials climbed after the producer price index came in better than expected and jobless claims rose slightly. Published:8/11/2022 10:35:41 AM
[Markets] The Dow closes 535 points higher as stocks take inflation news in best light The Dow closes 535 points higher as stocks take inflation news in best light Published:8/10/2022 3:33:59 PM
[Markets] Stocks & Bonds Tumble As Rate-Hike Odds Rise Stocks & Bonds Tumble As Rate-Hike Odds Rise

Higher than expected labor costs and the corresponding tumble in productivity prompted  combination of recession fears and inflation anxiety with the market pricing in more tightening in the short-term and then more easing after the recession hits...

Source: Bloomberg

Notably the Q1 rate-cut expectations are fading, notably almost back to zero probability of the cut...

Source: Bloomberg

Stocks did not like that and long-duration Nasdaq stocks sank notably with Small Caps worst on the day. The Dow was the least ugly horse

Treasuries were all sold today, reversing Monday's gains with both 10Y and 30Y remaining lower in yield on the week. Today saw the short-end underperform (2Y +7bps, 30Y +2bps)...

Source: Bloomberg

Notably all yields are still higher from Friday's payrolls print.

The yield curve flattened significantly with 2s10s trading as inverted as -49bps....

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended unchanged after some early weakness (testing down to pre-payrolls levels) was reversed...

Source: Bloomberg

Crypto slipped lower on the day with bitcoin testing down to $23k...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold pushed back above $1800 today...

Oil ended very marginally lower after testing above $92...

Finally, US retail pump prices fell to 5 month lows...

Source: Bloomberg

And while President Biden's approval rating has bounced, it remains notably divergent from gas prices.

Tyler Durden Tue, 08/09/2022 - 16:00
Published:8/9/2022 3:19:13 PM
[Markets] Stock Market Falls On Tech Warnings; These Restaurant And Leisure Companies Beat Estimates; LNG Rises The stock market remained lower after prominent chipmakers lowered forecasts. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fared better than other indexes with a 0.1% loss after it pared losses. The S&P 500 slid 0. Published:8/9/2022 1:31:28 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Market Rally Faces Key Inflation Report; Covid Vaccine Maker Crashes On Earnings Dow Jones futures were little changed after today's stock market action ahead of Wednesday's inflation report — the consumer price index. Published:8/8/2022 4:43:23 PM
[Markets] The Dow manages to close with a gain, but other indexes sputter Monday The Dow manages to close with a gain, but other indexes sputter Monday Published:8/8/2022 3:50:30 PM
[Markets] 3 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week Hundreds of additional companies will update investors on their latest sales trends in the comping week. Let's look at a few highlights from the long list of announcements on the way, from Disney (NYSE: DIS), Take-Two Interactive (NASDAQ: TTWO), and Fossil Group (NASDAQ: FOSL). Disney's stock has been one of the worst performers in the Dow this year, but shareholders are hoping for a change in fortunes starting on Wednesday. Published:8/7/2022 6:16:08 AM
[Markets] 3 Reasons the Bear Market Isn't Over Yet and 1 Reason to Be Exceedingly Optimistic For the growth-focused Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), we're talking about an even steeper decline that exceeded 30%. You'll note by the magnitude of these declines that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq officially entered a bear market. Since June 16, 2022, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have respectively risen by 9.6%, 13.3%, and 19%, through August 3. Published:8/7/2022 4:42:53 AM
[Markets] Goldman: The Market's Reaction To The Jobs Report Means Brace For A Stubborn Grind Higher In September Goldman: The Market's Reaction To The Jobs Report Means Brace For A Stubborn Grind Higher In September

Ahead of Friday's payrolls report, we asked "What's Better For Markets 400K Or 50K" and answered by quoting JPMorgan trader Andrew Tyler who said "50K NFP gets the Fed closer to “Mission Accomplished” as they are nearly there with housing markets (lower prices pending). I think a 400k print would have bond yields reprice higher, potentially taking the 10Y yield above 3% which has acted as a resistance point for Equities, recently."

Goldman's John Flood agreed, writing that since we now "are firmly in a BAD is GOOD and vice versa tape", in this context:

  • The market "will get hit hard (-200bps) on a print north of 372k (>prior reading) as sooner than expected “fed pivot” convos will quickly be shelved."

  • On the other hand, "a relatively inline print (150k – 300k) mkt wont react to as traders will sit on hands and wait for CPI."

  • Finally, "if jobs are lost and we get a negative print, tape will rally 100+bps as FOMO/COVER chase will (remain) on w/ early 2023 rate cut discussions gaining more momentum."

Long story short, the two most influential US banks agreed: a payrolls miss would send stocks surging while a big beat would - or should - crater them.

And yet, as John Flood writes in his NFP post-mortem, "Clearly blowout jobs numbers this AM with +528k headline vs +250k expected, AHE Mom 50bps vs 30bps prior/expected and U/E ticking from 3.6% down to 3.5% (the last time the U/E rate was sub 3.5% was 1969)." What was most amusing, was Flood's admission that "if i knew these numbers beforehand would have guessed NDX -3% and S&P -2% (best case). Knee jerk reaction was indeed sharply lower but market scratched and clawed back all session..."

Indeed it did, with the S&P closing just barely lower while the Dow actually turned green.

Why is this important? Because as Flood continues, "the market's reaction today tells me to brace for a stubborn grind higher into September absent any true tape bombs."

Why? Because the previously discussed massive Buybacks + CTA demand (Goldman's fresh numbers show +$15b S&P over next week as we will note in a follow up post) "provide enough support to keep the tape afloat in the face of the hot print." Furthermore, as Flood admits, "most institutional investors I speak with still are not eager to pounce on dips as buying opportunities and plan on sitting on hands until CPI next week."

Which means that "in this tape buyers live higher" and "Poor Sentiment + Light Positioning + Size Non Fundamental demand + Spotty Liquidity remain as very real tailwinds and continue to win tug of war against concerning macro/fundamentals..."

Tyler Durden Sat, 08/06/2022 - 11:00
Published:8/6/2022 10:50:15 AM
[Markets] Shock Jobs Report: Hiring, Wages Stay Hot As Unemployment Ties 53-Year Low; Dow Jones Falls The July jobs report was way too strong for the Federal Reserve, as the unemployment rate unexpectedly fell. The Dow Jones fell on odds of sharper rate hikes. Published:8/5/2022 4:12:09 PM
[Markets] A strong jobs report threw stocks for a loop, but the Dow managed to end higher A strong jobs report threw stocks for a loop, but the Dow managed to end higher Published:8/5/2022 3:08:07 PM
[Markets] Job Gains & Powell's Pains Demolish Dovish-Dreams, Spark Market Turmoil This Week Job Gains & Powell's Pains Demolish Dovish-Dreams, Spark Market Turmoil This Week

With a 'malarkey' of Fed Speakers all singing from the same hymn sheet - no pivot, we're battling inflation, don't expect rate-cuts next year - this morning's 6-standard-deviation beat in payrolls really stole the jam out of the exuberant donut the market had been hoping for as 'good news' was definitely 'bad news' from hoping for a dovish Fed to return imminently. The Hawkmen (and women and cisgender types) were back this week...

Rate-hike expectations soared this week (interesting subsequent rate-cut expectations also rose)...

Source: Bloomberg

With the odds of a 75bps hike in September spiking to 80% (from 25% earlier in the week), and the market is also pricing in positive odds of a hike for Dec and Feb...

Source: Bloomberg

Interestingly, today saw the market start pricing in a risk of an inter-meeting rate-hike (August Fed Funds futs saw heavy volume and an additionally 6bps of hiiking priced in). Bear in mind this contract expires shortly after the Fed's J-Hole meeting...

Source: Bloomberg

All of which sent bonds, stocks (except Nasdaq), crypto, crude, and the gold lower on the week as the dollar soared.

The Nasdaq outperformed this week but The Dow could not get back to even...

Quite a roller-coaster today though with Nasdaq underperforming and Small Caps leading. The plunge on payrolls was immediately met at the cash open with a wall of buying which briefly lifted The Dow and S&P into the green but the algos ran out of steam then. A late day panic bid lifted The Dow green but Nasdaq and S&P ended the day red...

All the US Majors closed back above their 100DMAs this week...

This week's violent surge higher was driven by the biggest weekly short-squeeze since Jan 2021

Source: Bloomberg

Treasury yields all ended the week higher with the short-end underperforming dramatically as hawkish reality was priced back in...

Source: Bloomberg

That meant the yield curve flattened (inverting even more significantly) on the week, with 2s30s at its most inverted since Oct 2000...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar ended the week higher, spiking notably today on the jobs print before fading back a little, seems like it stalled at the gap on FOMC day...

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were modestly lower on the week with bitcoin and thereum losing around 3-4% after a massive gain last month...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the week modestly higher but fell back below $1800 after the jobs print...

Crude was clubbed like a baby seal, crashing 10% and trading back to Putin invasion levels...

Finally, given this week's hawkish shift in the STIRs market, either stocks have to fall a long way back to reality or The Fed is about to embark on the greatest flip-flop in history...

Source: Bloomberg

Simply put, all that jawboning this week by Fed Presidents galore did nothing to damped financial conditions that are easier than when The Fed started hiking and nothing at all too dampen the desperate FOMO sentiment of retail panic-buyer piling back into big-tech.

Tyler Durden Fri, 08/05/2022 - 16:02
Published:8/5/2022 3:08:06 PM
[Markets] Stronger Employment Numbers Weigh On Stock Market; This Energy Stock Breaks Out Major indexes recovered some of the morning's losses after the stock market reacted to today's strong employment report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell as much as 0.9% in early trading but recovered. Published:8/5/2022 2:36:30 PM
[Markets] Stock Market Lower After July Jobs Soar; Western Digital Drags On Tech Sector Stock market indexes sold off on Friday after the July nonfarm payrolls report beat expectations by a country mile. Weak PC component guidance from hard drive maker Western Digital (WDC) added to pressure on tech stocks, with widely held names posting sizable losses. The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded lower by 0.3% just after the lunch hour while the S&P... Published:8/5/2022 11:49:07 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Slides On Strong Jobs Report; Square Stock Dives On Earnings; Tesla Stock Split Approved The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped Friday on a strong jobs report. And shareholders approved plans for a 3-for-1 Tesla stock split. Published:8/5/2022 8:59:37 AM
[Markets] Stock Market Narrowly Mixed; Oil Tanks; Strong Earnings Drive Big Moves The Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.2% in afternoon trading while the S&P 500 was down less than 0.1%. Published:8/4/2022 12:33:58 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Higher After Jobless Data; Alibaba Jumps On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Thursday after first-time jobless claims data. Next, investors await Friday's highly anticipated jobs report. Published:8/4/2022 8:30:06 AM
[Markets] Why Bitcoin, Ethereum, and Dogecoin Are Rising Today Most cryptocurrencies inched higher today along with the broader stock market, which has opened high today. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up close to 200 points, as of this writing, and the Nasdaq Composite traded roughly 1.6% higher. Over the last 24 hours, the price of the world's largest cryptocurrency, Bitcoin (CRYPTO: BTC), had climbed 2.6% as of 10:17 a.m. ET today. Published:8/3/2022 10:26:56 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Climb Ahead Of Key Economic Data; AMD Tumbles On Weak Sales Outlook Dow Jones futures climbed Wednesday morning ahead of new economic data, while AMD stock dived 6% on a weak sales outlook. Published:8/3/2022 8:12:36 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls Amid Pelosi Taiwan Visit; AMTD Digital Stock Explodes, But Consider This; MPWR Stock Jumps The Dow Jones fell as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi visited Taiwan. China stock AMTD Digital exploded. Monolithic Power Systems surged. Published:8/2/2022 4:19:01 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Drop As Pelosi Heads To Taiwan; Uber Surges On Strong Sales Dow Jones futures dropped 200 points Tuesday on rising U.S.-China tensions, as House Speaker Nancy Pelosi heads to Taiwan. Published:8/2/2022 7:21:34 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall: 7 Top Stocks To Buy And Watch In Today's Stock Market Dow Jones futures were little changed as the stock market rally strengthens. Top stocks to buy and watch include Chevron and Exxon. Published:8/1/2022 6:31:33 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall As Boeing Surges; Chinese EV Stocks Rise On Deliveries Dow Jones futures fell Monday, as Boeing surged on 787 Dreamliner news. Chinese EV stocks rose on July deliveries. Published:8/1/2022 8:34:32 AM
[Markets] Futures Movers: U.S. stock futures slip after Wall Street’s best week since 2020 Last week saw the best monthly results for the Dow and S&P 500 since November 2020, and the Nasdaq's best month since April 2020. Published:8/1/2022 12:04:10 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Reverses Higher Despite Hot Inflation Report; Amazon, Apple Rally On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed higher Friday on a hot inflation report. Amazon and Apple rallied on strong results. Published:7/29/2022 9:08:00 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Erase Gains After Hot Inflation Report; Amazon, Apple Rally On Earnings Dow Jones futures erased gains Friday after a hot inflation report. Amazon and Apple rallied on strong results. Published:7/29/2022 8:00:58 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Key Inflation Report; Amazon, Apple Rally On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Friday ahead of the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. Amazon and Apple rallied on strong results. Published:7/29/2022 7:16:08 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Market Rally Extends Momentum As Apple Pops, Amazon Soars On Earnings Dow Jones futures were little changed early Friday, while S&P 500 futures and especially Nasdaq futures rose, as Apple and Amazon.com headlined another wave of overnight earnings. The stock market rally showed strength Thursday, shrugging off a post-Fed pullback and weak earnings to move modestly higher. Published:7/29/2022 12:48:28 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise: Market Rally Extends Momentum As Apple Pops, Amazon Soars On Earnings; Intel, Roku Dive Dow Jones futures rose overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and especially Nasdaq futures, with Apple and Amazon.com headlining another wave of overnight earnings. The stock market rally showed strength Thursday, shrugging off a post-Fed pullback and weak earnings to move modestly higher. Published:7/28/2022 4:23:04 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies; Yellen Denies Recession Despite This Major Signal; Solar Stocks Shine On Manchin Move The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained amid a broad rally. Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen denied a recession is underway despite a major signal being flashed. Solar stocks soared after Senator Joe Manchin struck a deal on spending with Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Published:7/28/2022 3:36:43 PM
[Markets] Indexes Strengthen In Afternoon Trading; Apple, Amazon Earnings On Deck; These Stocks Score Breakouts The Dow Jones led the upside among indexes. Investors await earnings from major tech firms Apple and Amazon after the close. Published:7/28/2022 1:06:07 PM
[Markets] Dow up 200 points as Honeywell, Boeing, Walmart, Nike pace intraday reversal Dow up 200 points as Honeywell, Boeing, Walmart, Nike pace intraday reversal Published:7/28/2022 11:23:05 AM
[Markets] 4 Dow Jones Stocks To Buy And Watch In July: Apple Sells Off Ahead Of Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded just a little more than halfway through the month of July after ending June back near its recent lows. The best Dow Jones stocks to buy and watch in July are Apple, Merck, Microsoft and UnitedHealth. Published:7/28/2022 9:49:06 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall As Meta Slides On Earnings; Apple Earnings Due Dow Jones futures fell Thursday, as tech giant Meta Platforms slid on weak earnings results. Amazon and Apple earnings are due next. Published:7/28/2022 7:38:12 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall As Walmart Plunges On Profit Warning; Alphabet, Microsoft Earnings Due Dow Jones futures fell Tuesday morning, as Walmart dived 10% on a profit warning. Alphabet and Microsoft earnings are due late. Published:7/26/2022 7:04:37 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall As Walmart Dives On Profit Guidance Cut; What To Do Ahead Of Fed Decision Dow Jones futures were little changed ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. Walmart dived late Monday after lowering its profit guidance. Published:7/25/2022 6:03:49 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: What To Do Ahead Of Fed Decision; Walmart Dives On Profit Guidance Cut Dow Jones futures were little changed ahead of Wednesday's Fed decision. Walmart dived late Monday after lowering its profit guidance. Published:7/25/2022 5:08:17 PM
[Markets] Nasdaq Falls To Start Big Earnings Week; Entertainment Company Breaks Out The major stock market indexes were mixed in early trading ahead of a busy, tech-heavy earnings week. The Nasdaq composite was down 0.2% while the S&P rose 0.1%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.3%. The small-cap Russell 2000 gained 0.1%. Volume fell on the Nasdaq and the NYSE compared with the same time on Friday. European stocks were up,... Published:7/25/2022 9:54:21 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Climbs Ahead Of Big Tech Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed lower Monday after Friday's stock market sell-off, as big tech earnings kick off this week. Published:7/25/2022 9:02:05 AM
[Markets] U.S. stock indexes poised to kick off week with gains; Dow sights set on 32,000 U.S. stock indexes poised to kick off week with gains; Dow sights set on 32,000 Published:7/25/2022 8:29:36 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rebound Ahead Of Big Tech Earnings Dow Jones futures climbed Monday morning, looking to rebound from Friday's stock market sell-off, as big tech earnings kick off this week. Published:7/25/2022 7:27:19 AM
[Markets] Bonds & Bitcoin Soar On Week As Dismal Data Drives Dovish Dive In Rate-Hike Odds Bonds & Bitcoin Soar On Week As Dismal Data Drives Dovish Dive In Rate-Hike Odds

After a brief bounce, US Macro data returned to its "worse than expected" trend this week with ugliness in PMIs, initial jobless claims, Housing data (homebuilder sentiment slumped as existing home sales tumbled and single-family home starts/permits plunged), and Philly Fed and LEI tanking... (but apart from all those, everything is awesome and the consumer is strong - oh wait AT&T just warned that Americans can't even pay their phone bills on time)...

Source: Bloomberg

Which put together sent market expectations for rate-hikes down dramatically on the week...

Source: Bloomberg

And notably after this morning's ugly PMI (signaling recession), the market priced in a full rate-cut in Q1 2023...

Source: Bloomberg

There is now just a 9% chance of a 100bps hike next week, and a 33% of 75bps in September...

Source: Bloomberg

The terminal rate for Fed Funds tumbled to 3.358% in Dec 2022 then rate-cuts begin...

Source: Bloomberg

Bonds were aggressively bid Thursday and Friday, sending yields from +15bps to -15bps in 2 days...

Source: Bloomberg

30Y Yields tumbled back below 3.00% to their lowest since May...

Source: Bloomberg

Cryptos were also aggressively bid this week with Ethereum the big outperformer (up 25%) and Bitcoin gaining 10%...

Source: Bloomberg

Ethereum rallied back above $1600, its best week since Sept 2021...

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar was weaker on the week, back near 3-week lows...

Source: Bloomberg

An ugly day today in US stocks - thanks to SNAP's ad-spend signals and ugly PMIs - with the majors losses accelerating after Europe closed...

...wiping some of this week's lipstick off the bear market pig but the majors all managed to hold on to gains on the week with Small Caps and Big-Tech the best performer (and Dow the weakest). This was NASDAQ's best week since July 8th...

The line in the sand appeared to be 4000 for the S&P 500

Friday saw a big reversal as the short squeeze from earlier in the week ran out of ammo...

Source: Bloomberg

Utes were the biggest losers on the week (despite plunging rates) and Consumer Discretionary the best performer, closely followed by Tech and Energy stocks (despite today's weakness)...

Source: Bloomberg

European stocks posted their best weekly gain since late May as investors assessed early earnings results and prepared for the Federal Reserve’s next meeting following the first rate hike from the European Central Bank in 11 years.

Source: Bloomberg

Right as European stocks closed, US equity indices tumbled...

Source: Bloomberg

European sovereign yields were mixed on the week (despite a big tumble today after the ugly Eurozone PMIs) with Italian yields higher on the week while Germany and the rest oif the majors all saw yields drop on the week...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold ended the week lower but the early week weakness prompted a big bounce back above $1700...

Oil prices were marginally lower on the week with WTI unable to hold $100...

And finally, demand destruction and lower oil prices has dragged down pump prices across America...

Source: Bloomberg

But President Biden's approval rating continues to crash!!

Tyler Durden Fri, 07/22/2022 - 16:01
Published:7/22/2022 3:19:30 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Stocks Brace For Huge Earnings Week Chevron and Merck are on deck to report earnings, along with nearly a dozen other Dow Jones stocks. But outlooks are widely mixed. Published:7/22/2022 2:12:11 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P 500, Nasdaq fall as social media stocks drag The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq fell on Friday as social media and ad tech firms led declines after dismal quarterly revenue from Twitter and Snap, while an upbeat forecast from American Express kept the Dow afloat. Snap's shares plunged 35%, a day after the Snapchat owner missed revenue targets and declined to make a forecast, while Twitter Inc slipped following a surprise fall in revenue. Published:7/22/2022 9:43:59 AM
[Markets] Nasdaq and S&P 500 post gains early Thursday, with Dow in modest retreat Nasdaq and S&P 500 post gains early Thursday, with Dow in modest retreat Published:7/21/2022 9:47:51 AM
[Markets] Stock Market Indexes Fall On Worse Than Expected Jobless Claims And Manufacturing Data The major stock market indexes were mixed to start the day on a negative jobs report and lower manufacturing data. The Nasdaq composite was down 0.1% while the S&P lost 0.4%. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.7%. The small-cap Russell 2000 dropped 0.7%. Volume fell on the Nasdaq and rose on the NYSE compared with the same time on... Published:7/21/2022 9:47:51 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Turn Higher As ECB Raises Rates; Tesla Rallies On Strong Earnings Dow Jones futures fell Thursday, as the European Central Bank hiked interest rates. Tesla stock rallied on strong earnings results. Published:7/21/2022 8:06:33 AM
[Markets] Indexes Rise Into Close; Tesla Earnings On Deck After Netflix Earnings Push Stock Higher The Dow Jones and other U.S. indexes have all bullishly reclaimed a key level of support while stocks rise in higher volume. Published:7/20/2022 3:37:43 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips; Tesla Earnings Due As Stock Rallies; Netflix Surges On Subscriber Surprise The Dow Jones reversed lower. Tesla earnings are due and TSLA stock was moving higher. Netflix stock gained on subscriber figures. Published:7/20/2022 1:13:19 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As Netflix Jumps On Earnings; Tesla Earnings Up Next The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Wednesday, as Netflix stock jumped on earnings results. Tesla earnings are due out after the close. Published:7/20/2022 8:46:15 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall As Netflix Jumps On Earnings; Tesla Earnings Up Next Dow Jones futures fell Wednesday, as Netflix stock jumped on earnings results. Tesla earnings are due out after the close. Published:7/20/2022 8:31:29 AM
[Markets] Tech and semiconductor stocks move higher into the close, U.S. dollar rally comes to a pause Yahoo Finance markets reporter Ines Ferre breaks down the market rally action, as well as the sector gains, Dow Jones and Nasdaq leaders, semiconductor stocks, and the travel industry. Published:7/19/2022 3:30:59 PM
[Markets] 5 Dow Jones Stocks To Buy And Watch In July: Apple Rebounds From Sell-Off The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded just a little more than halfway through the month of July after ending June back near its recent lows. The best Dow Jones stocks to buy and watch in July are Apple, Johnson & Johnson, Merck, Microsoft and UnitedHealth. Published:7/19/2022 12:50:36 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies But IBM Dives On Earnings; Netflix Earnings Due The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied Tuesday, but IBM stock dived on earnings. Netflix earnings are due out after the market closes. Published:7/19/2022 8:53:14 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Climb But IBM Dives On Earnings; Netflix Earnings Due Dow Jones futures climbed Tuesday, but IBM stock tumbled on earnings. Netflix earnings are due out after the market closes. Published:7/19/2022 7:33:27 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Stock Market Stages Nasty Reversal With Netflix, Tesla Earnings Due Dow Jones futures were little changed after Monday's nasty stock market reversal. Netflix earnings and Tesla earnings are due out this week. Published:7/18/2022 4:04:49 PM
[Markets] Key Events This Week: Is Europe About To Snap Key Events This Week: Is Europe About To Snap

With the Fed now in their FOMC blackout period (which means any 100bps "leaks" will again have to go through the WSJ) and a lighter US week for data (ex-housing), Jim Reid notes that Q2 US earnings and all things European will be at the forefront of market attention this week with the highlight being the ECB’s likely first rate hike since 2011 on Thursday, while gas flows from Russia after maintenance on the Nord Stream pipeline ends the same day will also be a big focus with the EU expected to detail energy contingency plans the day before. We’ll also get a decision from the BoJ on Thursday too. Global preliminary July PMIs for the US, Japan and key European economies will come out on Friday.

Digging into some of these themes in more detail:

the ECB meeting on Thursday will likely deliver a +25bps hike, the first rate increase since 2011. DB's European economists retain their 2% terminal rate forecast but the hiking cycle is expected to be split. The first phase has hikes of +25bp, +50bp, +50bp and +25bp in July, September, October and December. By end-2022, the deposit rate will be 1%, helping to balance inflation and growth risks before the anticipated recession forces a pause. The second phase in H1 2024 is now expected to have four +25bp hikes and push rates into moderately above neutral territory (spoiler alert: none of this will happen as the ECB will be forced to resume easing once the European recession hits in a few months).

The ECB’s decision comes as Europe is grappling with significant concerns about the energy supply, a euro that has reached parity against the dollar for the first time since 2002, and inflation at an all-time high of 8.6%. If that’s not enough, it also comes alongside a recent widening in peripheral sovereign bond spreads and an Italian government possibly on the brink of collapse. We should know more on Wednesday when Draghi addresses lawmakers in Rome, however things are escalating quickly. The Five Star Movement (the second largest in the coalition) effectively abstained in a confidence motion in the Senate, triggering the current crisis. This weekend the party have met and don’t seem to be dialing down the rhetoric with leader Conte blaming Draghi for the impasse. Meanwhile the centre-right block are saying the coalition pact has been broken and that they won't now rule in a coalition with Five Star. Probabilities of a snap election are certainly going up.

With this unfolding, the details of the anti-fragmentation tool will be highly sought after at the ECB meeting. The ECB will also release its Euro area bank lending survey tomorrow and the Survey of Professional Forecasters on Friday.

Another event that will keep investors on edge that day is the end of the Nord Stream pipeline’s scheduled maintenance period. Fears that Russia will keep the taps closed have roiled markets in recent weeks and the EU is expected to detail contingency plans on Wednesday. Although the NS1 maintenance period ends on Thursday, it’s possible that there will be ambiguity on supply for a while.

Whatever Russia’s plans for supply through the autumn and winter, we may not fully see it in the next few days and weeks. Part of that might be politics and part of it may be operational as the turbine repair may take a while to be fully integrated, or at least that could be the claim. So we may get a few clues from Friday but it is unlikely we’ll know all the answers.

Also on Thursday, the next policy decision from the BoJ will be due.While DB expects no change in the current monetary stance and forward guidance on policy rates, the BoJ's Outlook Report is expected to show a downgrade in its growth forecast for FY2022 and an increase in its inflation forecast. The national CPI print will be due the next day and our economist expects core inflation (ex. fresh food) to climb to 2.2% YoY (+2.1% in May) and core-core inflation (ex. fresh food and energy) to 0.9% (+0.8% in May). Small fry in a western context but relatively strong for Japan.

Back to the data and US housing market indicators will be in focus this week, after the June CPI report showed the fastest monthly gains since 1986 for primary rents and 1990 for owners’ equivalent rent. In terms of data, we have July’s NAHB Housing Market Index (today), followed by June housing starts, building permits (tomorrow) and existing home sales (Wednesday).

In European data, the UK will be in focus with June CPI, RPI, PPI and May’s house price index due on Wednesday, preceded by labour market data tomorrow. Also released tomorrow will be July’s consumer confidence for the Eurozone, followed by a similar gauge and June retail sales for the UK on Friday.

In terms of earnings, after key US banks started reporting last week, we will get more insight into the state of the economy and consumer spending from Goldman Sachs, Bank of America (today) and American Express (Friday). Amid a mixed-bag performance for commodities in recent weeks, results from Halliburton (tomorrow), Baker Hughes (Wednesday), Schlumberger and NextEra (Friday) will be in focus. Earnings of consumer-oriented companies will be highly anticipated as well, including Johnson & Johnson (tomorrow), United Airlines, Tesla (Wednesday) and American Airlines (Thursday). In tech, key reporting corporates will include IBM (today), Netflix (tomorrow), ASML (Wednesday), SAP (Thursday) and Twitter (Friday). Other corporate earnings reports will feature Lockheed Martin (tomorrow), AT&T, Blackstone (Thursday) and Verizon (Friday).

Here is a day-by-day calendar of events:

Monday July 18

  • Data: Italy May trade balance, US July NAHB Housing Market Index, Canada June housing starts
  • Central banks: BoE's Saunders speaks
  • Earnings: Goldman Sachs, Bank of America, IBM, Prologis

Tuesday July 19

  • Data: UK June jobless claims change, May average weekly earnings, unemployment rate, Eurozone May construction output, US June housing starts, building permits
  • Central banks: Euro Area Bank Lending Survey, BoE's Bailey speaks
  • Earnings: Volvo, Yara, Johnson & Johnson, Novartis, Halliburton, Lockheed Martin, Netflix

Wednesday July 20

  • Data: UK June CPI, RPI, PPI, May house price index, Germany June PPI, Eurozone July consumer confidence, ECB May current account, Italy May current account balance, US June existing home sales, Canada June CPI, industrial product price, raw materials price index
  • Central banks: China 1y and 5y loan prime rates
  • Earnings: ASML, Baker Hughes, Aker, Abbott, CSX, Crown Holdings, United Airlines, Tesla, Kinder Morgan

Thursday July 21

  • Data: Japan June trade balance, UK June public finances, France July business and manufacturing confidence, US July Philadelphia Fed business outlook, initial jobless claims, June leading index
  • Central banks: ECB and BoJ decisions
  • Earnings: Roche, Danaher, Philip Morris, SAP, Dow Inc, AT&T, Domino's, Freeport-McMoRan, American Airlines, Nucor, Blackstone, Union Pacific, Snap

Friday July 22

  • Data: US, Japan, France, Germany, UK and Eurozone July PMIs, UK July GfK Consumer Confidence, June retail sales, Japan June national CPI, Canada May retail sales
  • Central banks: ECB Survey of Professional Forecasters
  • Earnings: Norsk Hydro, Twitter, Schlumberger, American Express, HCA Healthcare, NextEra Energy, Verizon

* * *

Finally focusing on just the US, Goldman writes that the key economic data release this week is the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index on Thursday. There are no scheduled speaking engagements from Fed officials this week, reflecting the FOMC blackout period.

Monday, July 18

  • 10:00 AM NAHB housing market index, July (consensus 65, last 67)

Tuesday, July 19

  • 08:30 AM Housing starts, June (GS +0.3%, consensus +2.0%, last -14.4%); Building permits, June (consensus -2.7%, last -7.0%): We estimate housing starts edged up by 0.3% in June.

Wednesday, July 20

10:00 AM Existing home sales, June (GS -2.5%, consensus -0.7%, last -3.4%): We estimate that existing home sales declined 2.5% in June.

Thursday, July 21

  • 08:30 AM Initial jobless claims, week ended July 16 (GS 240k, consensus 240k, last 244k); Continuing jobless claims, week ended July 9 (consensus 1,343k, last 1,331k): We estimate initial jobless claims declined to 240k in the week ended July 16.
  • 08:30 AM Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index, July (GS +6.0, consensus flat, last -3.3): We estimate that the Philadelphia Fed manufacturing index rebounded by 9.3pt to +6.0 in July, reflecting the easing in China covid lockdowns but a continued drag from the Russia-Ukraine War.

Friday, July 22

  • 09:45 AM S&P Global US manufacturing PMI, July preliminary (consensus 52.0, last 52.7): S&P Global US services PMI, July preliminary (consensus 52.5, last 52.7)

Source: Deutsche Bank, Bank of America, Goldman Sachs

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/18/2022 - 12:00
Published:7/18/2022 11:14:08 AM
[Markets] Stock Market Continues Friday's Uptrend; Bank and Airline Stocks Pulls Up Dow The stock market started the week strong after mixed bank earnings reports, with indexes trading above the last hour but off the highs of the day. The Nasdaq composite was up 1.4% and the S&P 500 gained 0.8%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.6%. The small-cap Russell 2000 led, up 1.6%. NYSE volume was down 16.6% and Nasdaq... Published:7/18/2022 11:14:08 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies As Earnings Season Continues; Goldman Sachs Jumps On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied Monday, as earnings season continues. Goldman Sachs jumped on better-than-expected earnings results. Published:7/18/2022 9:07:43 AM
[Markets] 3 Stocks That Drove the Dow's 650-Point Gain The Dow Jones Industrial Average soared 658 points today, as investors responded favorably to earnings reports and as members of the Fed's rate-setting committee made comments that were less hawkish than investors had feared. The company reported earnings that beat analyst estimates and also raised its full-year guidance. Published:7/15/2022 4:01:01 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall St gains as bets of supersized rate hike recede U.S. stocks climbed on Friday as upbeat retail sales data allayed some concerns about an imminent recession, while investors scaled back bets of a supersized interest rate hike in July after comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. The benchmark S&P 500 and the blue-chip Dow indexes rose after a five-day run of losses, which were mostly sparked by worries of a 100-basis-point interest rate hike at the coming policy meeting following hot inflation data. Published:7/15/2022 12:32:01 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall St climbs as investors trim bets on supersized rate hike U.S. stocks climbed on Friday as upbeat retail sales data allayed some concerns about an imminent recession, while investors scaled back bets of a supersized interest rate hike this month after comments from Federal Reserve policymakers. The benchmark S&P 500 and the blue-chip Dow rose after a five-day run of losses, which were mostly fanned by worries of a 100 basis points rate hike at the July policy meeting following hot inflation data. "The debate of a rate hike of a 100 basis points was keeping the market on edge," said Peter Cardillo, chief market economist at Spartan Capital Securities. Published:7/15/2022 10:00:20 AM
[Markets] Indexes Open Higher; Retail Sales Rise More Than Expected; UnitedHealth Pops On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose over 1% early Friday after June U.S. retail sales came in better than expected. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 also gained but are on track for weekly losses. Dow Jones Higher After Retail Sales In early trading, the Dow Jones industrials was up 1. Published:7/15/2022 9:48:23 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies After Strong Retail Sales; 4 Key Earnings Reports To Watch The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied 450 points Friday on strong retail sales data. Four key earnings reporters include Wells Fargo. Published:7/15/2022 9:30:06 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rally After Strong Retail Sales; 4 Key Earnings Reports To Watch Dow Jones futures climbed Friday after strong retail sales data before the market opened. Four key earnings reporters include Wells Fargo. Published:7/15/2022 8:23:09 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Retail Sales; 4 Key Earnings Reports To Watch Dow Jones futures climbed Friday ahead of U.S. retail sales data before the market opens. Four key earnings reporters include Wells Fargo. Published:7/15/2022 7:31:20 AM
[Markets] 2 Dow Stocks to Buy Hand Over Fist and 1 to Avoid Like the Plague The timeless Dow Jones Industrial Average is home to two incredible deals, as well as one highly successful company that's anything but a great deal. Published:7/15/2022 4:56:08 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Struggling Stock Market Rally Faces Key Inflation Report As U.S. Oil Prices Crash Dow Jones futures were little changed, as U.S. oil prices crashed below $96 a barrel. A key inflation report is due out early Wednesday. Published:7/12/2022 4:57:11 PM
[Markets] This Stock Flew Past the Dow Today The Dow Jones Industrial Average gave up roughly 192 points today, as investors continued to prepare for a recession and the reading of a key inflation report tomorrow morning that has the potential to move the market. The CPI tracks the prices of a basket of consumer goods and services, and is one way investors measure inflation. After a hotter-than-expected CPI reading for May, the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark overnight lending rate by three-quarters of a percentage point. Published:7/12/2022 4:08:31 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P 500, Nasdaq waffles on recession fears ahead of CPI report The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq seesawed between modest gains and losses, while robust aircraft deliveries by Boeing Co boosted the Dow modestly higher. All three were held in check by anticipation of Wednesday's Consumer Prices report from the Labor Department and big bank earnings later in the week. Published:7/12/2022 1:41:30 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P 500, Nasdaq subdued on recession fears; Boeing lifts Dow The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq struggled for direction on Thursday as worries that Federal Reserve policy tightening could trigger a recession hurt sentiment ahead of the start of earnings season, while a rise in Boeing kept the Dow afloat. Focus is now on inflation data on Wednesday that is expected to show U.S. consumer prices rose 8.8% in June from a year earlier, marking a fresh four-decade high and adding more pressure on the Fed to tame soaring prices. Published:7/12/2022 12:07:30 PM
[Markets] Stocks end near their lows of the day, with the Nasdaq faring worse than the Dow Stocks end near their lows of the day, with the Nasdaq faring worse than the Dow Published:7/11/2022 3:06:11 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls, Tech Stocks Dive Ahead Of Earnings Season; Elon Musk Seeks To Terminate Twitter Deal The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 150 points Monday, as Twitter shares tumbled after Elon Musk tried to end his $44 billion deal. Published:7/11/2022 8:58:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Earnings Season; Elon Musk Seeks To Terminate Twitter Deal Dow Jones futures dropped Monday morning ahead of earnings season. Twitter shares tumbled after Elon Musk tried to end his $44 billion deal. Published:7/11/2022 7:42:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Climbs Off Lows, Led By Surging UNH Stock; Tesla Stocks Moves Bullishly, Clears Key Technical Level The Dow Jones fought off lows along with the other major stock indexes. UNH stock was a top gainer in the blue-chip index Published:7/8/2022 12:53:02 PM
[Markets] Dow finishes up over 300 points as S&P 500 gains for fourth straight day Dow finishes up over 300 points as S&P 500 gains for fourth straight day Published:7/7/2022 3:28:45 PM
[Markets] Dow 30 Stocks Listed and Ranked By 2022 Hedge Fund Bullishness Index In this article, we discuss the Dow 30 stocks and their rank according to the 2022 hedge fund bullishness index. If you want to skip our review of these stocks and the latest market situation, go directly to 15 Dow Stocks Listed and Ranked By 2022 Hedge Fund Bullishness Index. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, […] Published:7/6/2022 9:25:47 AM
[Markets] Is It Time to Buy the Dow Jones' 3 Worst-Performing June Stocks? Most investors recognize this year's sweeping sell-off has been led by the same growth stocks that soared last year. It's not just growth stocks, however, that are losing ground here. The blue-chip-laden Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) now sits nearly 17% below January's high, losing almost 7% of its value in June alone. Published:7/6/2022 6:38:14 AM
[Markets] Dow closes off day's lows as S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher Dow closes off day's lows as S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher Published:7/5/2022 3:38:37 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P 500, Nasdaq end higher as investors eye economic path The S&P 500 ended slightly higher on Tuesday as investors kept their focus on the growth trajectory of the U.S. economy, and the tech-heavy Nasdaq closed higher while the Dow slipped. U.S. stocks have been under relentless selling pressure this year, with the benchmark S&P 500 index recording its steepest first-half percentage drop since 1970, as the Federal Reserve moves away from easy-money policy by raising borrowing costs. Published:7/5/2022 3:38:37 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P 500, Dow slip in first post-holiday session; Nasdaq up The S&P 500 and the Dow slipped on Tuesday to start the trading week following a three-day holiday weekend after last Friday's sharp rally, as investors waited for economic data due later this week. The tech-heavy Nasdaq rose. U.S. stocks have been under relentless selling pressure this year, with the benchmark S&P 500 index recording its steepest first-half percentage drop since 1970, as the Federal Reserve moves away from easy-money policy by raising borrowing costs. Published:7/5/2022 1:55:19 PM
[Markets] Futures Slide As Recesson Fears Trump Tariff Optimism Futures Slide As Recesson Fears Trump Tariff Optimism

The rally that pushed stocks well above 3,800 during Monday's illiquid session when US cash stocks were closed for July 4 amid speculation that Biden was about to rollback many Chinese tariffs (unclear how this would help ease inflation but a move that the market clearly read as risk positive), fizzled as soon as Europe opened this morning and alongside the tumbling euro which plunged to a 20-year-low and approached parity with the USD on growing recession fears, also dragged US equity US futures lower as investors turned their focus back to the looming recession, which outweighed optimism around an improvement in Washington’s ties with Beijing. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were down 0.7% by 730 a.m. in New York, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.6%. The cash market was closed for a holiday on Monday.  10Y TSY yields swung from gains to losses before trading 2bps higher around 2.90% while bitcoin rose, and traded around $20K after dropping below $19K over the weekend.

US markets are set to reopen Tuesday after capping 11 declines in the past 13 weeks as an unprecedented first-quarter contraction boosted the prospects of a recession to near certainty. At the same time, consumer prices are far from peaking with inflation surging to 8.6% in May that left little room for the Federal Reserve to slow monetary tightening.  

Sentiment was lifted on Monday as senior US and Chinese officials discussed US economic sanctions and tariffs amid reports the Biden administration is close to rolling back some of the trade levies imposed by President Donald Trump. While that came as a relief, investors continued to fret over a potential US recession, stubborn inflation and monetary tightening. Economic reports in Europe, including French purchasing managers’ indexes, came in below estimates.

“The Fed will likely remain aggressive in its fight against inflation for now,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. “At the same time, European growth is slowing down fast. This just puts additional fire on the growth concerns about the US.”

“The government is very conscious that they need to act on the supply side of the inflation issue because the Fed has been slamming the brakes on the demand side whereas the real issue is on the supply side,” said Deepak Mehra, the head of investments at the Commercial Bank of Dubai. “Trying to fix that issue is giving the market a bit of an ease and comfort that we are finally addressing the problem where it is and not giving the wrong medicine,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Among notable moves in premarket trading, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks edged higher as Bitcoin briefly traded above the closely watched $20,000 level.  Recession fears echoed in US premarket trading, where Carnival Corp. and ASML Holding NV dropped more than 4% each. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson said the US economy is firmly in the middle of a slowdown that’s turning out to be worse than expected amid the war in Ukraine and China’s Covid Zero policy. “Any fall in rates should be interpreted as more of a growth concern rather than as potential relief from the Fed,” they wrote in a note. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Cowen (COWN US) shares jump as much as 14% in US premarket trading, following a report late Friday that Canadian bank Toronto-Dominion was said to be exploring a takeover of the brokerage. Piper Sandler says that a possible combination would be “reasonable” for Cowen at the right price.
  • Antero Resources (AR US) shares rise 2.8% in premarket trading after the stock was upgraded to buy from hold at Truist Securities, with the broker saying that a recent selloff in the oil company is an opportune entry point given gas and natural gas liquids are likely to remain strong.
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are gaining in US premarket trading on Tuesday as Bitcoin trades above the closely watched $20,000 level. Coinbase (COIN US) +1.4%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +1.9%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +2.4%, MicroStrategy (MSTR US) +2.8%, Ebang (EBON US) +5.9%
  • Tesla (TSLA US) shares fall 0.8% in premarket trading, though analysts note that the electric vehicle company’s record production in June is a silver lining in an otherwise disappointing quarter of deliveries.
  • Netflix (NFLX US) shares decline 0.8% in premarket trading as Piper Sandler cuts PT to $210 from $293, reiterating neutral recommendations, while estimating that the company’s ad-supported tier, which is expected to launch by year-end, represents a quarterly revenue opportunity of about $1.4 billion.

Most European equity indexes slumped over 1% with miners, autos and insurance names among the worst-performing Stoxx 600 sectors. CAC 40 and FTSE 100 lag, dropping as much as 1.4%. Miners underperformed the broader European market on Tuesday amid concerns over the risks of a global recession and the blow it would deliver to demand for raw materials. Copper fell to the lowest level in 17 months and traded solidly below $8,000 a ton, as sentiment remains sour toward the industrial material used in everything from construction to new energy vehicles. Stoxx 600 Basic Resources sub-index declines 1.6% as of 9:42am in London, led lower by miners like Antofagasta, KGHM and Anglo American, even as iron ore rises after a four-day slide. Broader European benchmark is down 0.4%. The Stoxx 600 energy sub-index slides 1.3% after rising most since May on Monday. TotalEnergies drops 1.6%, BP -1.1%, Shell -1.3%. Shares in renewable fuel producer Neste outperform, rising 1.3%. The Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index dropped 1.5%, the third-worst performing subgroup in the broader European equity market. Automakers had their worst June sales in decades in the UK, while German new-car registrations also plunged. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Miners and energy shares underperform the broader European market on Tuesday amid concerns over the risks of a global recession and the blow it would deliver to demand for raw materials.
  • KGHM shares decline as much as 6.7%, Anglo American -4.5%, TotalEnergies -2.5%, Shell -2.2%
  • Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 6.1%; Deutsche Bank expects 2Q at the lower end of the guidance range for the quarter while most-in-focus unit Defence will likely trend above.
  • SAS falls as much as 15% after the company announced it was filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US.
  • European media stocks slide after Goldman Sachs slashed earnings forecasts across its media and internet coverage to factor in a more cautious macro outlook. Prosieben drops as much as 9.5%, Publicis -4.5%
  • Uniper shares edged lower, paring earlier gains of as much as 11%, as analysts speculated on what a possible government bailout might look like.
  • Dechra Pharmaceuticals advances as much as 4.5% on Tuesday after RBC upgrades to outperform in note in which it describes the stock as the “pick of the litter.”
  • Cellnex Telecom shares rise as much as 5% following a Bloomberg News report that a KKR-led consortium is emerging as the frontrunner to buy a stake in Deutsche Telekom’s tower unit, beating out a rival bid from Cellnex and Brookfield Asset Management that had been viewed negatively by analysts.
  • Lonza Group climbs as much as 3.8% after it got upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi, citing the market’s under-appreciation of demand for biologics manufacturing.
  • PGS shares soar as much as 20% as Pareto Securities upgrades the oilfield services firm to buy following a period under review, with the broker saying that “the future is looking brighter” for the company.

The euro extended its losses, tumbling to the lowest level since 2002 against the dollar. It also slid to the weakest since January 2015 against the Swiss franc.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities were modestly higher Tuesday as China’s stocks gave back early gains after initial enthusiasm about the country’s improving ties with the US waned.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% before narrowing the advance to 0.2% as of 6:14 p.m. in Singapore. Energy and health care shares were among the gainers.  Chinese shares fell, after the province of Anhui reported more than 200 Covid cases for Monday and market participants assessed whether the potential scrapping of US tariffs on Chinese goods would help address global inflation concerns. The US 10-year Treasury yield trimmed an intraday advance over recession worries, giving tech shares a slight boost.

Australia’s main index edged higher as the domestic central bank met market expectations by raising interest rates a half-percentage point and suggesting that inflation may peak this year. Benchmarks in the Philippines and South Korea led gains in Asia, with each rising at least 1.8%.  “The easing of tariffs -- if confirmed -- comes at the dream timing to save its economy from the endless virus battle,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at IG Markets, referring to the China. “Even though it may not stop the downtrend, it could at least slow the pace and restore the world’s confidence in the second-largest economy.” Meanwhile, Thailand’s gauge was the latest to enter a technical correction. Asian stocks have been stuck in range-bound trading since the end of April as markets digest higher interest rates, the possibility of a recession in advanced economies and continued virus flareups in China. The MSCI regional gauge is down more than 18% this year

In Australia, the central bank raised its key interest rate as expected to 1.35%. It’s among more than 80 central banks to have raised rates this year. The nation’s dollar weakened after the decision.

Key equity gauges in India pared early advances to close lower as worries over an economic recession weighed on the sentiments.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 0.2% to 53,134.35 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also dropped by the same magnitude. Stocks rose earlier in the day, tracking advances in Asian peers on the possibility of US rolling back some levies on China. A fast progress of monsoon rainfall, which waters most farmland in India, along with quarterly earnings for top companies that start this week added to the sentiment.   Consumer goods maker ITC was the biggest drag on the Sensex, falling 1.7%. Seven of BSE Ltd.’s 19 sectoral sub-gauges declined, led by information technology companies.    Asia’s biggest software exporter Tata Consultancy Services, will kickoff the April-June earnings season for companies on Friday

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced for a third day as the greenback gained against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasuries were mixed. The single currency fell as much as 0.9% to 1.0331, its weakest level since December 2002, with losses compounded by poor liquidity and selling in euro-Swiss franc. German bond curve bull steepened and money markets trimmed ECB tightening bets to less than 140 basis points this year after French services PMI was revised lower. That’s down from more than 190 basis points almost three weeks ago, widening the interest-rate differential with the Federal Reserve. Scandinavian currencies were also dragged down by the euro sell-off and were leading G-10 losses against the greenback. Cable fell amid broad- based dollar strength. Bank of England rate-setter Silvana Tenreyro speaks later Tuesday and the BOE will issue its financial stability report. The Australian dollar extended a slump on the back of the broad-based US dollar strength. The Aussie had already given up gains after the RBA increased its cash rate to 1.35% as expected. It had risen earlier amid reports the US will roll back tariffs on some Chinese goods. The yen pared an Asia session loss as risk sentiment worsened.

In rates, Treasuries were off session lows reached during Asia session, remain under pressure as US markets reopen after Monday’s holiday, giving back a portion of Friday’s steep gains. Five- and 10-year yields remain below 50-DMA levels while 2- and 30-year are back above. Yields higher by as much as 6bp at short end vs ~3bp at long end after rising as much as 13bp and 9bp, respectively. 2s10s curve is slightly positive after briefly inverting for first time since mid-June; 5s30s spread ~22bp after reaching widest level since May 31 on Friday. Short-end Germany richens over 10bps, outperforming gilts. Cash USTs fade Asia’s gains. Peripheral spreads widen to core with short-end Italy underperforming.

In commodities, brent crude swung between gains and losses, last trading Brent down 1.5% near $111.78, while WTI rose after a long holiday weekend in the US with investors weighing still-strong underlying market signals against concerns a recession will eventually sap demand. Most base metals trade in the red; LME aluminum falls 2.8%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade near $1,803/oz.

Bitcoin resides underneath the USD 20k mark and at session lows of 19.4k amid the broader risk tone. BoE Financial Stability report said falling crypto markets expose vulnerability, but not stability risk overall.

To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the global services and composite PMIs for June, as well as the ISM services index from the US. Otherwise, there’s French industrial production for May and US factory orders for May. From central banks, the BoE will be releasing their Financial Stability Report and we’ll also hear from the BoE’s Tenreyro.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,814.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 408.04
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 157.72
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 521.38
  • Nikkei up 1.0% to 26,423.47
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,879.12
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 21,853.07
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,404.03
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 53,387.68
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,629.33
  • Kospi up 1.8% to 2,341.78
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.27%
  • Euro down 0.8% to $1.0338
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $114.01/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,803.33
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.64% to 105.81

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Senior US and Chinese officials discussed US economic sanctions and tariffs Tuesday amid reports the Biden administration is close to rolling back some of the trade levies imposed by former President Donald Trump
  • UK automakers had their worst June sales in decades in the UK as ongoing components shortages kept them from meeting demand. New-car registrations declined by 24% to 140,958 vehicles, the lowest for the month since 1996, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders
  • Italy declared a state of emergency in five northern and central regions devastated by a recent drought, as a severe heat wave takes its toll on agriculture and threatens power supplies

A more detailed summary of global markets courtesy of newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly positive amid a pick-up from the holiday lull although Chinese markets faltered. ASX 200 was led by the tech and commodity-related sectors with further support from a lack of hawkish surprise from the RBA. Nikkei 225 was propelled by a weaker currency but pulled back from early highs after hitting resistance around the 26,500 level and following softer-than-expected wages data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were both initially lifted following reports US President Biden could make a decision on rolling back some China tariffs as soon as this week and with Vice Premier Liu He said to have had a constructive exchange with US Treasury Secretary Yellen on the economy and supply chains. Furthermore, participants also welcomed the strong Caixin Services and Composite PMI data, although the advances in the mainland were then pared as the central bank continued to drain liquidity and amid lingering COVID concerns.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC injected CNY 3bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 107bln net drain.
  • China is to set up a CNY 500bln state infrastructure investment fund and will issue 2023 advance local government special bonds quota in Q4, according to Reuters sources.
  • Chinese Premier Liu He spoke with US Treasury Secretary Yellen regarding the economy and supply chains, while the exchange was said to be constructive and both sides believed in the need to strengthen communication and coordination of macro policies between China and the US, according to Reuters.
  • US Treasury Department confirmed Treasury Secretary Yellen held a virtual meeting with China's Vice Premier Liu He as part of efforts to maintain open lines of communication, while they discussed macroeconomic and financial developments in both China and US, as well as the global economic outlook and food security challenge. Furthermore, Yellen raised issues of concern including the impact of Russia's war against Ukraine on the global economy and "unfair, non-market PRC economic practices", according to Reuters.
  • RBA hiked the Cash rate Target by 50bps to 1.35%, as expected, while it reiterated that the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions with the size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the board's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Furthermore, the central bank noted that Australian inflation was high but was not as high as in other countries and it forecast inflation to peak this year before declining back towards the 2-3% range next year.

European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, as a broader risk-off move takes hold despite a relatively constructive APAC handover and limited newsflow in European hours. A move that has impaired US futures, ES -0.4%, as we await the lead from stateside participants re-joining after the long-weekend with a quiet schedule ahead. European sectors are predominantly in the red, though the clear defensive bias is keeping the likes of Food and Healthcare afloat.

Top European News

  • UK faces its first national train drivers' strike in 25 years with the head of the UK train drivers' union warning of 'massive' disruption as members vote on their first strike since 1995, according to FT.
  • BoE Financial Stability Report (July): will raise the counter-cyclical capital buffer rate to 2% in July 2023. Click here for more detail.
  • Ukraine Latest: Turkey Renews Threat to Veto NATO Expansion
  • Bunds Bull Steepen, ECB Hike Bets Pared After French PMI Revised
  • UK Train Drivers Would Make Threatened Strikes National: Union

FX

  • DXY sets new 2022 best above 106.000 after taking time out to mark US Independence Day, reaches 106.24 before waning marginally.
  • Euro slumps to fresh multi-year lows as EGBs rebound strongly and risk appetite evaporates; EUR/USD probes 1.0300, EUR/CHF sub-0.9950 and EUR/JPY below 140.00.
  • Aussie underperforms irrespective of 50bp RBA rate hike as accompanying statement sounds less hawkish on inflation; AUD/USD under 0.6800 from close to 0.6900 overnight and AUD/NZD cross retreats through 1.1050.
  • Pound down regardless of upgrades to final UK services and composite PMIs as Buck rallies broadly and BoE’s FSR flags material deterioration in global economic outlook, Cable beneath 1.2050 from circa 1.2125 peak.
  • Yen holds up better than others amidst Greenback strength on risk and rate grounds; USD/JPY eyes support into 135.50 vs 136.00+ at the other extreme.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds on course for a turnaround Tuesday after marked retreat from pre-weekend peaks on Independence Day.
  • Bunds back above 150.00 from 148.72 low and Friday's 151.65 high, Gilts reclaim 115.00+ status within 116.58-114.60 range and 10 year T-note above 119-00 between 119-20+/118-23 parameters.
  • UK 2051 and German 2033 linker supply reasonably well received, but yields considerably higher.

In commodities

  • Crude benchmarks were fairly resilient to the broader risk tone, but have most recently succumbed to the pressure and are at the lower-end of a USD 3-4/bbl range.
  • Reminder, the lack of settlement due to the US market holiday is causing some discrepancy between WTI and Brent, though they are directionally moving in tandem.
  • UAE’s ADNOC set Murban crude OSP for August at USD 117.53/bbl vs prev. USD 109.68/bbl in July, according to Reuters.
  • Norway's Lederne union said the strike in the Norwegian oil sector had begun, according to Reuters.
  • Saudi Aramco has increased all oil prices for customers in August; sets Aug light crude OSP to Asia at +9.30/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average, according to Reuters sources; NW Europe set at +USD 5.30 vs. ICE Brent; US set at +USD 5.65 vs. ASCI.
  • Russian Deputy Chair of the Security Council Medvedev says the Japanese proposal to cap Russian oil prices would lead to higher global prices, oil prices could increase to over USD 300-400/bbl, via Reuters.
  • Chile’s Codelco copper output fell 6.3% Y/Y in May to 142.9k tonnes, while Chile’s Collahuasi mine copper output fell 15.4% to 49k tonnes and Chile’s Escondida copper output rose 26% to 106.9k tonnes, according to Cochilco cited by Reuters.
  • Russian billionaire Potanin says he is ready to discuss a possible merger of Nornickel with Rusal, via Reuters citing RBC TV; UK sanctions on him do not target Nornickel, Co. is still working under pressure.
  • Spot gold is impaired by the rampant USD action, pressure seen in base metals as well on such dynamics and LME copper now below 8k/T.

 

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00: May -Less Transportation, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
  • 10:00: May Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.8%
  • 10:00: May Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
  • 10:00: May Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.3%
  • 10:00: May Factory Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
  • 10:00: May Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I can only apologise in advance for the next few weeks! The Global Institutional Investor Awards will open later this afternoon and not to put it too bluntly we’d like to do well. So if you value our research please vote if you can. More details to follow when the poll opens.

It’s been a quieter 24 hours for markets thanks to the US holiday, but the market remains confused about how to price fixed income in an environment where a recession is coming at some point. We've seen a big yield sell-off to start the week even if equities have stabilised, with a fresh rise in energy prices only adding to concerns about how different economies (particularly in Europe) will fare this winter if Russia cuts off the flow of gas. Overnight the US 2s10s curve has inverted again, the RBA has hiked 50bps as expected and Chinese PMI data has massively beat expectations so a few things going on even in a quieter trading period.

We’ll start with markets in Europe since they were open yesterday. The biggest story there was a sizeable selloff among sovereign bonds as they gave up some of their gains over the last couple of weeks. Yields on 10yr bunds were up +10.1bps, but they were one of the better performers given the risk-off tone and yields on 10yr OATs (+12.7bps) and BTPs (+15.8bps) saw even larger rises, which followed comments from Bundesbank president Nagel who said that it was “virtually impossible to establish for sure whether or not a widened spread is fundamentally justified”. Nevertheless, Nagel did not entirely rule out an anti-fragmentation instrument but said that this “can be justified only in exceptional circumstances and under narrowly-defined conditions.”

This question of how the ECB will deal with a potential widening in spreads is set to come increasingly to the fore as they almost certainly embark on their first hiking cycle in over a decade this month. And yesterday we heard some further comments from ECB officials on that hiking cycle, with Estonia’s Muller pushing back against the calls from others to start with a 50bps hike, saying that it was appropriate to begin with a 25bps move in July, and then 50bps in September as they’ve signalled. In line with the rise in sovereign bond yields, overnight index swaps priced in a slightly more aggressive series of hikes from the ECB, with the rate implied by December up by +7.1 bps on the day.

Whilst the ECB is set to hike rates, their life is being made significantly more difficult by the ongoing energy shock that’s creating increasingly stagflationary conditions. Unfortunately, there was more bad news on that front yesterday, with natural gas futures up by another +10.26% to €163 per megawatt-hour, which is their highest rate since early March and more than double their recent low in early June. Matters haven’t been helped by a planned strike in Norway that puts around 13% of Norway’s daily gas exports at risk, according to the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association, which comes ahead of next week’s scheduled maintenance of the Nord Stream pipeline, which will last from July 11-21.

When it came to equities, the main European indices mostly managed to advance, although as mentioned at the top that was partly a catch-up to the late rally on Friday afternoon in the US, and the STOXX 600 was up +0.54% thanks to a strong performance amongst energy stocks. By contrast, futures on the S&P 500 were lower throughout European trading even if they have flipped higher this morning (futures +0.36%). One similarity between the US and Europe was a slightly more hawkish path for central bank rates being priced, with Fed funds futures taking the Dec-2022 implied rate up by +3.8 bps after last week’s declines. This fits with what Henry mentioned in his latest newsletter yesterday (link here), in which he points out that the recent repricing of the hiking cycle in a more dovish direction is inconsistent with the historic pattern whereby the Fed has always taken rates above inflation as they hike. This morning, yields on US 10yrs (+6.6bps) and 2yrs (+10.8bps) are catching up the global move after the holiday leaving 2s10s very slightly inverted as we go to press.

Speaking of inflation, it was reported by Dow Jones yesterday that President Biden could ease some tariffs on Chinese imports soon, with the article saying that a decision could be announced this week. As discussed in the article and other media reports, this has apparently been a divisive issue inside the administration, since although their removal could help ease inflation, it would also give up leverage in obtaining concessions from China, so there’s geopolitical as well as economic factors at play here.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning partly on the tariffs story above and partly on better data overall. Across the region, the Kospi (+1.13%) is leading gains followed by the Nikkei (+0.82%) and the Hang Seng (+0.41%). Bucking the trend are the mainland Chinese markets with the Shanghai Composite (-0.20%) and CSI (-0.95%) both slipping as I type, perhaps on less stimulus hopes after a big beat in the Caixin PMI (see below). Outside of Asia, US and European equities are set to follow the Asian trend with futures on the S&P 500 (+0.36%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.47%) and DAX (+0.60%) moving higher.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s services activity accelerated at the fastest pace since October 2013 as the Jibun Bank services PMI advanced to 54.0 in June from 52.6 in May. Meanwhile, Japan’s real wages (-1.8% y/y) extended its decline in May, notching its biggest contraction in two years compared to an upwardly revised -1.7% decline in April. At the same time, cash earnings rose +1.0% y/y in May (vs +1.5% market consensus, and +1.3% in April), thus adding downside risk to a consumption driven rebound in 2Q22 GDP. Moving to China, growth in the nation’s services sector surprisingly beat as the Caixin services PMI jumped to 54.5 in June, its highest level in nearly a year from 41.4 in May as Covid curbs eased. Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s CPI rose +0.6% m/m in June (v/s +0.5% expected) and against a +0.7% increase in the prior month.

As widely anticipated, we did see policy tightening by the RBA as the central bank raised its cash rate by 50bps to 1.35% as it moves to tame strengthening inflation. This is the third consecutive increase of the cash rate. The AUD/USD pair was little changed in an immediate reaction.

There wasn’t a massive amount of data yesterday, although we did get German trade figures that showed the country had a monthly trade deficit in goods in May for the first time since 1991. That was thanks to higher import costs as a result of the recent commodity shocks, alongside disruptions to trade from factors including sanctions on Russia, which left the monthly deficit at €1.0bn.

To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the global services and composite PMIs for June, as well as the ISM services index from the US. Otherwise, there’s French industrial production for May and US factory orders for May. From central banks, the BoE will be releasing their Financial Stability Report and we’ll also hear from the BoE’s Tenreyro.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/05/2022 - 08:03
Published:7/5/2022 7:07:36 AM
[Markets] 3 Dow Stocks That Are Screaming Buys in July For well over a century, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) has been the most-watched stock index in the world. Originally comprised of 12 mostly industrial companies when it debuted in 1896, the Dow Jones has, today, grown to a 30-stock index packed with profitable, time-tested, and diverse multinational businesses. The maturity of the 30 components that comprise the Dow makes these stocks especially popular with the broader market undergoing its steepest downturn since March 2020, and closing out its worst start to a year since 1970. Published:7/5/2022 5:00:21 AM
[Markets] How Far Could the Stock Market Fall? 2 Indicators May Hold the Answer If there's a perfect word to sum up the first six months of 2022 for the investing community, I believe it's "Yuck!" As of the closing bell on June 30, 2022, the U.S. stock market delivered its worst first-half return in 52 years. Since hitting their respective all-time closing highs between mid-November and the first week of January, the widely followed Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-stock-driven Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), respectively plunged by as much as 19%, 24%, and 34%. You'll note these figures firmly entrench the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in a bear market, with the iconic Dow Jones just one bad day away from joining its peers. Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As Powell Issues This Inflation Warning; Tesla Stock Falls Amid This Move; 2 Stocks Test Entries The Dow Jones rose despite Fed Chai Jerome Powell issuing an inflation warning. Tesla stock fell amid closure news. Apple stock rose. Published:6/29/2022 3:45:38 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Sharp rate hike bets keep Wall Street subdued, Goldman lifts Dow The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq were flat in volatile trading on Wednesday on worries over faster interest rate hikes even as recent data painted a dour picture for the economy, while a boost from Goldman Sachs shares kept the Dow afloat. Investors fretted over the impact of hefty rate increases on the U.S. economy, as data highlighted the contraction of the U.S. economy in the first quarter amid a record trade deficit following a Tuesday report that showed U.S. consumer confidence hit a 16-month low. Published:6/29/2022 10:08:36 AM
Top Searches:
books
FBI
dow
dow jones
obama
books1111111111111' UNION SELECT CHAR(45,120,49,45,81,45),CHAR(45,120,50,45,81,45),CHAR(45,120,51,45,81,45),CHAR(45,120,52,45,81,45),CHAR(45,120,53,45,81,45),CHAR(45,120,54,45,81,45),CHAR(45,120,55,45
-1'
NASA
obamacare
Casey

Jobs from Indeed