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[Entertainment] Director Quentin Tarantino and Wife Daniella Pick Welcome Baby No. 2 Quentin Tarantino, Daniella Pick, Rome Film Festival 2021Once Upon a Time...Quentin Tarantino became a father of two. The Pulp Fiction director welcomed a daughter with wife Daniella Pick over the Fourth of July weekend. "Daniella and...
Published:7/5/2022 7:07:36 AM
[topics:places/london] Jermaine Baker was 'lawfully killed' by police, inquiry rules Published:7/5/2022 7:07:36 AM
[Markets] Bond Report: Treasury yield curve flattens on U.S. growth fears The U.S. yield curve flattened Tuesday as investors mulled how far the Federal Reserve will hike interest rates as the U.S. economy slows.
Published:7/5/2022 7:07:36 AM
[World] Climate alarmists seizing their day Climate alarmists took over the highways of Maryland in the lead-up to the holiday weekend, blocking all lanes across the inner loop of Interstate 495 and causing traffic disruptions that lasted 90 minutes. It's beginning. The switch from COVID-19 to radical environmentalism is in the works. Published:7/5/2022 7:07:36 AM
[Science] How Landsat Chronicled 50 Years on a Changing, Fiery Planet The pioneering satellite program has provided the longest continuous document of how fire, global warming, and humanity are remaking our world. Published:7/5/2022 7:07:36 AM
[Entertainment] Honeymoon Chicken aims high — and hits its mark Federalist Pig pitmaster Rob Sonderman expands his reach with a fried chicken project in Petworth. Published:7/5/2022 7:07:36 AM
[Quick Takes] U. Tennessee Launching Institute of American Civics to Teach the Founding Principles

"In many states colleges and universities have become centers of anti-American thought, leaving students not only ill-equipped but confused."

The post U. Tennessee Launching Institute of American Civics to Teach the Founding Principles first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:7/5/2022 7:07:36 AM
[Markets] Futures Slide As Recesson Fears Trump Tariff Optimism Futures Slide As Recesson Fears Trump Tariff Optimism

The rally that pushed stocks well above 3,800 during Monday's illiquid session when US cash stocks were closed for July 4 amid speculation that Biden was about to rollback many Chinese tariffs (unclear how this would help ease inflation but a move that the market clearly read as risk positive), fizzled as soon as Europe opened this morning and alongside the tumbling euro which plunged to a 20-year-low and approached parity with the USD on growing recession fears, also dragged US equity US futures lower as investors turned their focus back to the looming recession, which outweighed optimism around an improvement in Washington’s ties with Beijing. Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were down 0.7% by 730 a.m. in New York, while S&P 500 futures slipped 0.6%. The cash market was closed for a holiday on Monday.  10Y TSY yields swung from gains to losses before trading 2bps higher around 2.90% while bitcoin rose, and traded around $20K after dropping below $19K over the weekend.

US markets are set to reopen Tuesday after capping 11 declines in the past 13 weeks as an unprecedented first-quarter contraction boosted the prospects of a recession to near certainty. At the same time, consumer prices are far from peaking with inflation surging to 8.6% in May that left little room for the Federal Reserve to slow monetary tightening.  

Sentiment was lifted on Monday as senior US and Chinese officials discussed US economic sanctions and tariffs amid reports the Biden administration is close to rolling back some of the trade levies imposed by President Donald Trump. While that came as a relief, investors continued to fret over a potential US recession, stubborn inflation and monetary tightening. Economic reports in Europe, including French purchasing managers’ indexes, came in below estimates.

“The Fed will likely remain aggressive in its fight against inflation for now,” said Joachim Klement, head of strategy, accounting and sustainability at Liberum Capital. “At the same time, European growth is slowing down fast. This just puts additional fire on the growth concerns about the US.”

“The government is very conscious that they need to act on the supply side of the inflation issue because the Fed has been slamming the brakes on the demand side whereas the real issue is on the supply side,” said Deepak Mehra, the head of investments at the Commercial Bank of Dubai. “Trying to fix that issue is giving the market a bit of an ease and comfort that we are finally addressing the problem where it is and not giving the wrong medicine,” he said in an interview with Bloomberg TV.

Among notable moves in premarket trading, cryptocurrency-exposed stocks edged higher as Bitcoin briefly traded above the closely watched $20,000 level.  Recession fears echoed in US premarket trading, where Carnival Corp. and ASML Holding NV dropped more than 4% each. Meanwhile, Morgan Stanley strategists led by Michael Wilson said the US economy is firmly in the middle of a slowdown that’s turning out to be worse than expected amid the war in Ukraine and China’s Covid Zero policy. “Any fall in rates should be interpreted as more of a growth concern rather than as potential relief from the Fed,” they wrote in a note. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Cowen (COWN US) shares jump as much as 14% in US premarket trading, following a report late Friday that Canadian bank Toronto-Dominion was said to be exploring a takeover of the brokerage. Piper Sandler says that a possible combination would be “reasonable” for Cowen at the right price.
  • Antero Resources (AR US) shares rise 2.8% in premarket trading after the stock was upgraded to buy from hold at Truist Securities, with the broker saying that a recent selloff in the oil company is an opportune entry point given gas and natural gas liquids are likely to remain strong.
  • Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks are gaining in US premarket trading on Tuesday as Bitcoin trades above the closely watched $20,000 level. Coinbase (COIN US) +1.4%, Riot Blockchain (RIOT US) +1.9%, Marathon Digital (MARA US) +2.4%, MicroStrategy (MSTR US) +2.8%, Ebang (EBON US) +5.9%
  • Tesla (TSLA US) shares fall 0.8% in premarket trading, though analysts note that the electric vehicle company’s record production in June is a silver lining in an otherwise disappointing quarter of deliveries.
  • Netflix (NFLX US) shares decline 0.8% in premarket trading as Piper Sandler cuts PT to $210 from $293, reiterating neutral recommendations, while estimating that the company’s ad-supported tier, which is expected to launch by year-end, represents a quarterly revenue opportunity of about $1.4 billion.

Most European equity indexes slumped over 1% with miners, autos and insurance names among the worst-performing Stoxx 600 sectors. CAC 40 and FTSE 100 lag, dropping as much as 1.4%. Miners underperformed the broader European market on Tuesday amid concerns over the risks of a global recession and the blow it would deliver to demand for raw materials. Copper fell to the lowest level in 17 months and traded solidly below $8,000 a ton, as sentiment remains sour toward the industrial material used in everything from construction to new energy vehicles. Stoxx 600 Basic Resources sub-index declines 1.6% as of 9:42am in London, led lower by miners like Antofagasta, KGHM and Anglo American, even as iron ore rises after a four-day slide. Broader European benchmark is down 0.4%. The Stoxx 600 energy sub-index slides 1.3% after rising most since May on Monday. TotalEnergies drops 1.6%, BP -1.1%, Shell -1.3%. Shares in renewable fuel producer Neste outperform, rising 1.3%. The Stoxx 600 Automobiles & Parts Index dropped 1.5%, the third-worst performing subgroup in the broader European equity market. Automakers had their worst June sales in decades in the UK, while German new-car registrations also plunged. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Miners and energy shares underperform the broader European market on Tuesday amid concerns over the risks of a global recession and the blow it would deliver to demand for raw materials.
  • KGHM shares decline as much as 6.7%, Anglo American -4.5%, TotalEnergies -2.5%, Shell -2.2%
  • Rheinmetall shares fall as much as 6.1%; Deutsche Bank expects 2Q at the lower end of the guidance range for the quarter while most-in-focus unit Defence will likely trend above.
  • SAS falls as much as 15% after the company announced it was filing for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the US.
  • European media stocks slide after Goldman Sachs slashed earnings forecasts across its media and internet coverage to factor in a more cautious macro outlook. Prosieben drops as much as 9.5%, Publicis -4.5%
  • Uniper shares edged lower, paring earlier gains of as much as 11%, as analysts speculated on what a possible government bailout might look like.
  • Dechra Pharmaceuticals advances as much as 4.5% on Tuesday after RBC upgrades to outperform in note in which it describes the stock as the “pick of the litter.”
  • Cellnex Telecom shares rise as much as 5% following a Bloomberg News report that a KKR-led consortium is emerging as the frontrunner to buy a stake in Deutsche Telekom’s tower unit, beating out a rival bid from Cellnex and Brookfield Asset Management that had been viewed negatively by analysts.
  • Lonza Group climbs as much as 3.8% after it got upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi, citing the market’s under-appreciation of demand for biologics manufacturing.
  • PGS shares soar as much as 20% as Pareto Securities upgrades the oilfield services firm to buy following a period under review, with the broker saying that “the future is looking brighter” for the company.

The euro extended its losses, tumbling to the lowest level since 2002 against the dollar. It also slid to the weakest since January 2015 against the Swiss franc.

Earlier in the session, Asian equities were modestly higher Tuesday as China’s stocks gave back early gains after initial enthusiasm about the country’s improving ties with the US waned.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index rose as much as 0.8% before narrowing the advance to 0.2% as of 6:14 p.m. in Singapore. Energy and health care shares were among the gainers.  Chinese shares fell, after the province of Anhui reported more than 200 Covid cases for Monday and market participants assessed whether the potential scrapping of US tariffs on Chinese goods would help address global inflation concerns. The US 10-year Treasury yield trimmed an intraday advance over recession worries, giving tech shares a slight boost.

Australia’s main index edged higher as the domestic central bank met market expectations by raising interest rates a half-percentage point and suggesting that inflation may peak this year. Benchmarks in the Philippines and South Korea led gains in Asia, with each rising at least 1.8%.  “The easing of tariffs -- if confirmed -- comes at the dream timing to save its economy from the endless virus battle,” said Hebe Chen, an analyst at IG Markets, referring to the China. “Even though it may not stop the downtrend, it could at least slow the pace and restore the world’s confidence in the second-largest economy.” Meanwhile, Thailand’s gauge was the latest to enter a technical correction. Asian stocks have been stuck in range-bound trading since the end of April as markets digest higher interest rates, the possibility of a recession in advanced economies and continued virus flareups in China. The MSCI regional gauge is down more than 18% this year

In Australia, the central bank raised its key interest rate as expected to 1.35%. It’s among more than 80 central banks to have raised rates this year. The nation’s dollar weakened after the decision.

Key equity gauges in India pared early advances to close lower as worries over an economic recession weighed on the sentiments.  The S&P BSE Sensex dropped 0.2% to 53,134.35 in Mumbai, while the NSE Nifty 50 Index also dropped by the same magnitude. Stocks rose earlier in the day, tracking advances in Asian peers on the possibility of US rolling back some levies on China. A fast progress of monsoon rainfall, which waters most farmland in India, along with quarterly earnings for top companies that start this week added to the sentiment.   Consumer goods maker ITC was the biggest drag on the Sensex, falling 1.7%. Seven of BSE Ltd.’s 19 sectoral sub-gauges declined, led by information technology companies.    Asia’s biggest software exporter Tata Consultancy Services, will kickoff the April-June earnings season for companies on Friday

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index advanced for a third day as the greenback gained against all of its Group-of-10 peers. Treasuries were mixed. The single currency fell as much as 0.9% to 1.0331, its weakest level since December 2002, with losses compounded by poor liquidity and selling in euro-Swiss franc. German bond curve bull steepened and money markets trimmed ECB tightening bets to less than 140 basis points this year after French services PMI was revised lower. That’s down from more than 190 basis points almost three weeks ago, widening the interest-rate differential with the Federal Reserve. Scandinavian currencies were also dragged down by the euro sell-off and were leading G-10 losses against the greenback. Cable fell amid broad- based dollar strength. Bank of England rate-setter Silvana Tenreyro speaks later Tuesday and the BOE will issue its financial stability report. The Australian dollar extended a slump on the back of the broad-based US dollar strength. The Aussie had already given up gains after the RBA increased its cash rate to 1.35% as expected. It had risen earlier amid reports the US will roll back tariffs on some Chinese goods. The yen pared an Asia session loss as risk sentiment worsened.

In rates, Treasuries were off session lows reached during Asia session, remain under pressure as US markets reopen after Monday’s holiday, giving back a portion of Friday’s steep gains. Five- and 10-year yields remain below 50-DMA levels while 2- and 30-year are back above. Yields higher by as much as 6bp at short end vs ~3bp at long end after rising as much as 13bp and 9bp, respectively. 2s10s curve is slightly positive after briefly inverting for first time since mid-June; 5s30s spread ~22bp after reaching widest level since May 31 on Friday. Short-end Germany richens over 10bps, outperforming gilts. Cash USTs fade Asia’s gains. Peripheral spreads widen to core with short-end Italy underperforming.

In commodities, brent crude swung between gains and losses, last trading Brent down 1.5% near $111.78, while WTI rose after a long holiday weekend in the US with investors weighing still-strong underlying market signals against concerns a recession will eventually sap demand. Most base metals trade in the red; LME aluminum falls 2.8%, underperforming peers. Spot gold falls roughly $5 to trade near $1,803/oz.

Bitcoin resides underneath the USD 20k mark and at session lows of 19.4k amid the broader risk tone. BoE Financial Stability report said falling crypto markets expose vulnerability, but not stability risk overall.

To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the global services and composite PMIs for June, as well as the ISM services index from the US. Otherwise, there’s French industrial production for May and US factory orders for May. From central banks, the BoE will be releasing their Financial Stability Report and we’ll also hear from the BoE’s Tenreyro.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 0.3% to 3,814.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.3% to 408.04
  • MXAP up 0.3% to 157.72
  • MXAPJ up 0.2% to 521.38
  • Nikkei up 1.0% to 26,423.47
  • Topix up 0.5% to 1,879.12
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.1% to 21,853.07
  • Shanghai Composite little changed at 3,404.03
  • Sensex up 0.3% to 53,387.68
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 up 0.3% to 6,629.33
  • Kospi up 1.8% to 2,341.78
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 1.27%
  • Euro down 0.8% to $1.0338
  • Brent Futures up 0.4% to $114.01/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,803.33
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.64% to 105.81

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Senior US and Chinese officials discussed US economic sanctions and tariffs Tuesday amid reports the Biden administration is close to rolling back some of the trade levies imposed by former President Donald Trump
  • UK automakers had their worst June sales in decades in the UK as ongoing components shortages kept them from meeting demand. New-car registrations declined by 24% to 140,958 vehicles, the lowest for the month since 1996, according to data from the Society of Motor Manufacturers and Traders
  • Italy declared a state of emergency in five northern and central regions devastated by a recent drought, as a severe heat wave takes its toll on agriculture and threatens power supplies

A more detailed summary of global markets courtesy of newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks traded mostly positive amid a pick-up from the holiday lull although Chinese markets faltered. ASX 200 was led by the tech and commodity-related sectors with further support from a lack of hawkish surprise from the RBA. Nikkei 225 was propelled by a weaker currency but pulled back from early highs after hitting resistance around the 26,500 level and following softer-than-expected wages data. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were both initially lifted following reports US President Biden could make a decision on rolling back some China tariffs as soon as this week and with Vice Premier Liu He said to have had a constructive exchange with US Treasury Secretary Yellen on the economy and supply chains. Furthermore, participants also welcomed the strong Caixin Services and Composite PMI data, although the advances in the mainland were then pared as the central bank continued to drain liquidity and amid lingering COVID concerns.

Top Asian News

  • PBoC injected CNY 3bln via 7-day reverse repos with the rate at 2.10% for a CNY 107bln net drain.
  • China is to set up a CNY 500bln state infrastructure investment fund and will issue 2023 advance local government special bonds quota in Q4, according to Reuters sources.
  • Chinese Premier Liu He spoke with US Treasury Secretary Yellen regarding the economy and supply chains, while the exchange was said to be constructive and both sides believed in the need to strengthen communication and coordination of macro policies between China and the US, according to Reuters.
  • US Treasury Department confirmed Treasury Secretary Yellen held a virtual meeting with China's Vice Premier Liu He as part of efforts to maintain open lines of communication, while they discussed macroeconomic and financial developments in both China and US, as well as the global economic outlook and food security challenge. Furthermore, Yellen raised issues of concern including the impact of Russia's war against Ukraine on the global economy and "unfair, non-market PRC economic practices", according to Reuters.
  • RBA hiked the Cash rate Target by 50bps to 1.35%, as expected, while it reiterated that the board expects to take further steps in the process of normalising monetary conditions with the size and timing of future interest rate increases will be guided by the incoming data and the board's assessment of the outlook for inflation and the labour market. Furthermore, the central bank noted that Australian inflation was high but was not as high as in other countries and it forecast inflation to peak this year before declining back towards the 2-3% range next year.

European bourses are pressured across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -0.8%, as a broader risk-off move takes hold despite a relatively constructive APAC handover and limited newsflow in European hours. A move that has impaired US futures, ES -0.4%, as we await the lead from stateside participants re-joining after the long-weekend with a quiet schedule ahead. European sectors are predominantly in the red, though the clear defensive bias is keeping the likes of Food and Healthcare afloat.

Top European News

  • UK faces its first national train drivers' strike in 25 years with the head of the UK train drivers' union warning of 'massive' disruption as members vote on their first strike since 1995, according to FT.
  • BoE Financial Stability Report (July): will raise the counter-cyclical capital buffer rate to 2% in July 2023. Click here for more detail.
  • Ukraine Latest: Turkey Renews Threat to Veto NATO Expansion
  • Bunds Bull Steepen, ECB Hike Bets Pared After French PMI Revised
  • UK Train Drivers Would Make Threatened Strikes National: Union

FX

  • DXY sets new 2022 best above 106.000 after taking time out to mark US Independence Day, reaches 106.24 before waning marginally.
  • Euro slumps to fresh multi-year lows as EGBs rebound strongly and risk appetite evaporates; EUR/USD probes 1.0300, EUR/CHF sub-0.9950 and EUR/JPY below 140.00.
  • Aussie underperforms irrespective of 50bp RBA rate hike as accompanying statement sounds less hawkish on inflation; AUD/USD under 0.6800 from close to 0.6900 overnight and AUD/NZD cross retreats through 1.1050.
  • Pound down regardless of upgrades to final UK services and composite PMIs as Buck rallies broadly and BoE’s FSR flags material deterioration in global economic outlook, Cable beneath 1.2050 from circa 1.2125 peak.
  • Yen holds up better than others amidst Greenback strength on risk and rate grounds; USD/JPY eyes support into 135.50 vs 136.00+ at the other extreme.

Fixed Income

  • Bonds on course for a turnaround Tuesday after marked retreat from pre-weekend peaks on Independence Day.
  • Bunds back above 150.00 from 148.72 low and Friday's 151.65 high, Gilts reclaim 115.00+ status within 116.58-114.60 range and 10 year T-note above 119-00 between 119-20+/118-23 parameters.
  • UK 2051 and German 2033 linker supply reasonably well received, but yields considerably higher.

In commodities

  • Crude benchmarks were fairly resilient to the broader risk tone, but have most recently succumbed to the pressure and are at the lower-end of a USD 3-4/bbl range.
  • Reminder, the lack of settlement due to the US market holiday is causing some discrepancy between WTI and Brent, though they are directionally moving in tandem.
  • UAE’s ADNOC set Murban crude OSP for August at USD 117.53/bbl vs prev. USD 109.68/bbl in July, according to Reuters.
  • Norway's Lederne union said the strike in the Norwegian oil sector had begun, according to Reuters.
  • Saudi Aramco has increased all oil prices for customers in August; sets Aug light crude OSP to Asia at +9.30/bbl vs Oman/Dubai average, according to Reuters sources; NW Europe set at +USD 5.30 vs. ICE Brent; US set at +USD 5.65 vs. ASCI.
  • Russian Deputy Chair of the Security Council Medvedev says the Japanese proposal to cap Russian oil prices would lead to higher global prices, oil prices could increase to over USD 300-400/bbl, via Reuters.
  • Chile’s Codelco copper output fell 6.3% Y/Y in May to 142.9k tonnes, while Chile’s Collahuasi mine copper output fell 15.4% to 49k tonnes and Chile’s Escondida copper output rose 26% to 106.9k tonnes, according to Cochilco cited by Reuters.
  • Russian billionaire Potanin says he is ready to discuss a possible merger of Nornickel with Rusal, via Reuters citing RBC TV; UK sanctions on him do not target Nornickel, Co. is still working under pressure.
  • Spot gold is impaired by the rampant USD action, pressure seen in base metals as well on such dynamics and LME copper now below 8k/T.

 

US Event Calendar

  • 10:00: May -Less Transportation, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%
  • 10:00: May Cap Goods Ship Nondef Ex Air, prior 0.8%
  • 10:00: May Cap Goods Orders Nondef Ex Air, est. 0.5%, prior 0.5%
  • 10:00: May Factory Orders Ex Trans, prior 0.3%
  • 10:00: May Factory Orders, est. 0.5%, prior 0.3%
  • 10:00: May Durable Goods Orders, est. 0.7%, prior 0.7%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

I can only apologise in advance for the next few weeks! The Global Institutional Investor Awards will open later this afternoon and not to put it too bluntly we’d like to do well. So if you value our research please vote if you can. More details to follow when the poll opens.

It’s been a quieter 24 hours for markets thanks to the US holiday, but the market remains confused about how to price fixed income in an environment where a recession is coming at some point. We've seen a big yield sell-off to start the week even if equities have stabilised, with a fresh rise in energy prices only adding to concerns about how different economies (particularly in Europe) will fare this winter if Russia cuts off the flow of gas. Overnight the US 2s10s curve has inverted again, the RBA has hiked 50bps as expected and Chinese PMI data has massively beat expectations so a few things going on even in a quieter trading period.

We’ll start with markets in Europe since they were open yesterday. The biggest story there was a sizeable selloff among sovereign bonds as they gave up some of their gains over the last couple of weeks. Yields on 10yr bunds were up +10.1bps, but they were one of the better performers given the risk-off tone and yields on 10yr OATs (+12.7bps) and BTPs (+15.8bps) saw even larger rises, which followed comments from Bundesbank president Nagel who said that it was “virtually impossible to establish for sure whether or not a widened spread is fundamentally justified”. Nevertheless, Nagel did not entirely rule out an anti-fragmentation instrument but said that this “can be justified only in exceptional circumstances and under narrowly-defined conditions.”

This question of how the ECB will deal with a potential widening in spreads is set to come increasingly to the fore as they almost certainly embark on their first hiking cycle in over a decade this month. And yesterday we heard some further comments from ECB officials on that hiking cycle, with Estonia’s Muller pushing back against the calls from others to start with a 50bps hike, saying that it was appropriate to begin with a 25bps move in July, and then 50bps in September as they’ve signalled. In line with the rise in sovereign bond yields, overnight index swaps priced in a slightly more aggressive series of hikes from the ECB, with the rate implied by December up by +7.1 bps on the day.

Whilst the ECB is set to hike rates, their life is being made significantly more difficult by the ongoing energy shock that’s creating increasingly stagflationary conditions. Unfortunately, there was more bad news on that front yesterday, with natural gas futures up by another +10.26% to €163 per megawatt-hour, which is their highest rate since early March and more than double their recent low in early June. Matters haven’t been helped by a planned strike in Norway that puts around 13% of Norway’s daily gas exports at risk, according to the Norwegian Oil and Gas Association, which comes ahead of next week’s scheduled maintenance of the Nord Stream pipeline, which will last from July 11-21.

When it came to equities, the main European indices mostly managed to advance, although as mentioned at the top that was partly a catch-up to the late rally on Friday afternoon in the US, and the STOXX 600 was up +0.54% thanks to a strong performance amongst energy stocks. By contrast, futures on the S&P 500 were lower throughout European trading even if they have flipped higher this morning (futures +0.36%). One similarity between the US and Europe was a slightly more hawkish path for central bank rates being priced, with Fed funds futures taking the Dec-2022 implied rate up by +3.8 bps after last week’s declines. This fits with what Henry mentioned in his latest newsletter yesterday (link here), in which he points out that the recent repricing of the hiking cycle in a more dovish direction is inconsistent with the historic pattern whereby the Fed has always taken rates above inflation as they hike. This morning, yields on US 10yrs (+6.6bps) and 2yrs (+10.8bps) are catching up the global move after the holiday leaving 2s10s very slightly inverted as we go to press.

Speaking of inflation, it was reported by Dow Jones yesterday that President Biden could ease some tariffs on Chinese imports soon, with the article saying that a decision could be announced this week. As discussed in the article and other media reports, this has apparently been a divisive issue inside the administration, since although their removal could help ease inflation, it would also give up leverage in obtaining concessions from China, so there’s geopolitical as well as economic factors at play here.

Asian equity markets are mostly trading higher this morning partly on the tariffs story above and partly on better data overall. Across the region, the Kospi (+1.13%) is leading gains followed by the Nikkei (+0.82%) and the Hang Seng (+0.41%). Bucking the trend are the mainland Chinese markets with the Shanghai Composite (-0.20%) and CSI (-0.95%) both slipping as I type, perhaps on less stimulus hopes after a big beat in the Caixin PMI (see below). Outside of Asia, US and European equities are set to follow the Asian trend with futures on the S&P 500 (+0.36%), NASDAQ 100 (+0.47%) and DAX (+0.60%) moving higher.

Early morning data showed that Japan’s services activity accelerated at the fastest pace since October 2013 as the Jibun Bank services PMI advanced to 54.0 in June from 52.6 in May. Meanwhile, Japan’s real wages (-1.8% y/y) extended its decline in May, notching its biggest contraction in two years compared to an upwardly revised -1.7% decline in April. At the same time, cash earnings rose +1.0% y/y in May (vs +1.5% market consensus, and +1.3% in April), thus adding downside risk to a consumption driven rebound in 2Q22 GDP. Moving to China, growth in the nation’s services sector surprisingly beat as the Caixin services PMI jumped to 54.5 in June, its highest level in nearly a year from 41.4 in May as Covid curbs eased. Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s CPI rose +0.6% m/m in June (v/s +0.5% expected) and against a +0.7% increase in the prior month.

As widely anticipated, we did see policy tightening by the RBA as the central bank raised its cash rate by 50bps to 1.35% as it moves to tame strengthening inflation. This is the third consecutive increase of the cash rate. The AUD/USD pair was little changed in an immediate reaction.

There wasn’t a massive amount of data yesterday, although we did get German trade figures that showed the country had a monthly trade deficit in goods in May for the first time since 1991. That was thanks to higher import costs as a result of the recent commodity shocks, alongside disruptions to trade from factors including sanctions on Russia, which left the monthly deficit at €1.0bn.

To the day ahead now, and data highlights include the global services and composite PMIs for June, as well as the ISM services index from the US. Otherwise, there’s French industrial production for May and US factory orders for May. From central banks, the BoE will be releasing their Financial Stability Report and we’ll also hear from the BoE’s Tenreyro.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/05/2022 - 08:03
Published:7/5/2022 7:07:36 AM
[Security] End-to-End Encryption's Central Role in Modern Self-Defense With abortion set to be criminalized in more than half the US, encryption has never been more important for protection—and civil disobedience. Published:7/5/2022 6:31:49 AM
[Politics] Kamala Harris could break a record. Democrats wish she didn't have to

The vice president is on pace to cast a record number of tie-breaking votes in the Senate — showing the limits of the Biden administration's power.

Published:7/5/2022 6:31:49 AM
[Politics] [Josh Blackman] Today in Supreme Court History: July 5, 1867 7/5/1867: Justice James Wayne dies. Published:7/5/2022 6:31:49 AM
[Markets] The Chillingly Realistic Path To Rate Cuts This Year The Chillingly Realistic Path To Rate Cuts This Year

Authored by Jeffrey Snider via The Epoch Times,

Consumer confidence has plummeted already. With gasoline and food prices weighing on far more than American sentiment, it’s no wonder much of the public may have come around to the idea of recession. Politicians and economists are another matter. Nothing in life—let alone the economy—is inevitable, but the entire global system may have passed that point of no return some time ago before anyone (outside of markets) had realized it.

Treasury yields and eurodollar curves have been forecasting contraction not inflation for well over a year already. Starting out as small relative probabilities, as longer-term yields buckled and the eurodollar curve distorted, this was just the markets’ way of signaling a higher degree of confidence in this pessimism.

It all broke wide open, so to speak, once already shameful gasoline prices took a step too far around the beginning of March. In all likelihood, that was the point of no return.

Since then, these same markets after having moved on from “if” to “when” are now thinking especially hard about “how bad.” And this is where recent data fits in.

Unfortunately, various major and minor economic statistics around the world have rather unsurprisingly confirmed these market suspicions. First, a slowdown rather than acceleration in the middle of last year when the public’s attention was exclusively fixed on what “everyone” said was big inflation.

That slowing was a warning it had only ever been “inflation” (supply shock, not excess money) which meant it all came with an expiration date (yes, transitory). This unappreciated 2021 downturn was picked up in all the data, too, including U.S. (and overseas) real GDP.

Then, like curves, GDP changed for the worse during 2022’s first quarter. In America, the Bureau of Economic Accounts (BEA) said output adjusted for prices (real) fell rather alarmingly in those three months. The final revisions to Q1 were released just now and were even weaker than previously thought (below).

To begin with, sales of goods were revised downward, while at the same time inventory accumulation was revised upward; basically, the BEA now thinks fewer goods were sold leaving more stuck in the hands of retailers who other data (Census Bureau) conclusively shows are already drowning in stuff, and are increasingly desperate to get out from under it all.

The inevitable result should be a near-term future of discounting and liquidations (falling prices, at least outside of energy for now) of that inventory pile to go along with canceled, cut, and desisted new orders for producers all around the world, domestic and foreign. We’ve seen this take shape already (PMIs have uniformly shown rapid declines in manufacturing order activity).

Here’s the truly concerning part.

All of these things, bad enough already, have developed and transpired under a relatively benign backdrop. What I mean is, the labor market— therefore jobs— hasn’t thus far been seriously stressed. By most measures, it might appear to be doing rather well.

Confidence has crashed and spending in real terms is decelerating to modestly falling, and yet there are only tangential indications of employment difficulties (the BLS’s CPS, or Household Survey, turned negative in April and didn’t bounce back in May, otherwise most labor data might outwardly appear practically terrific).

What happens if—or when—the aggregate labor situation actually does become meaningfully worse?

We’re already in rough, possibly recessionary shape. Should employers begin to actively cut workers with any sort of serious determination, this could turn a mild recession into, well, what market curves are shaping as some real downside risk just ahead.

All it would take is the very thing that turns the labor market from uncertain and concerning into outright awful: falling corporate profits.

That very situation was included within the update to the bad GDP news for Q1 2022. Along with revised estimates for spending and investment across the U.S. economy, the BEA also produced profit estimates that fell by nearly 5 percent from the fourth quarter (first chart below). Like overall GDP and output, company bottom lines had previously been pressured throughout the second half of 2021 before this.

Much, maybe most, of the prior 2020-21 profit “growth” had been due to Uncle Sam’s various “rescue” schemes including all those PPP “loans” which immediately (corruption at America’s finest) became “grants.” It was an enormous transfer from the Treasury market via the federal government to corporations that were supposed to maintain and then add back their workforces.

The latter didn’t happen, not as much.

As a reminder, there are fewer jobs (CES) today than there had been in February 2020, well more than two years ago. Obviously, the grant-making scheme didn’t play all the way out as it was meant to (and there are honest arguments about whether the economy would’ve been much worse had it not been done).

In short, Uncle Sam massively boosted corporate earnings and these companies responded rationally to what was a temporary, one-time gift. They were cautious about rehiring (which is why jobs overall still lag so far behind, not some ridiculous Great Resignation excuse) because the “transitory” supply shock phenomenon isn’t the same thing as real and actual recovery.

It’s sure not overheating.

There is, as you’d expect, a pretty tight correlation between the rate of hiring economy-wide and bottom lines (specifically, between BEA’s corporate profit series and BLS’s Establishment Survey). With companies already more likely to have pocketed last year’s windfall than to have acted on it, and with profitability like the overall economy starting to go down already, what might this propose about this quarter right now before, then, the second half of this year?

It is shaping up to be a perfect storm of negative factors, only some of which have been thus far fully unleashed: strained consumers at their limits; overfilled retailers and wholesalers demanding mercy from producers by fast-canceling orders; global manufacturers and industry now dealing with fewer orders while struggling from input costs such as commodities; a pernicious lack of overall economic strength for about a year, despite so much talk about red-hot macro and inflation.

On top of all that existing woe, then comes the more-than-hypothetical hammer blow—very real prospects for widespread layoffs. In point of fact, it may not take that many to push it all over the edge, just further lack of a jobs rebound.

If consumers are already in the dumps when jobs aren’t disappearing, think ahead to what happens to all the above if they do start going away.

That’s what has happened on these curves.

All the preconditions for nasty have been set, met, and made plain by the flow of recent data. Therefore, taking curves more literally, exactly the way in which the inflation-fighting certitude and aggression from the FOMC becomes the meek, embarrassing U-turn (or “pivot,” as the Fed’s apologists prefer) into rate cuts.

This year.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/05/2022 - 07:20
Published:7/5/2022 6:31:49 AM
[Markets] Need to Know: Here’s how far house prices are set to fall as rates go up, says Capital Economics This is not a 2008 reboot, says Capital Economcs' Neil Shearing.
Published:7/5/2022 6:31:49 AM
[] The Morning Report — 7/5/22 Good morning, kids. Tuesday and yet again, a mentally disturbed young man committed mass murder via a gun, this time at a July 4th parade in the tony Chicago suburb of Highland Park, IL. So far, six have been confirmed... Published:7/5/2022 6:31:49 AM
[Midterm Elections (2022)] Will the Abortion Debate Keep Moderate Women in the Democrats’ Camp? Worried about inflation and dissatisfied with President Biden, many moderate women have been drifting away from Democrats. Now the party hopes the fight for abortion rights will drive them back. Published:7/5/2022 6:08:08 AM
[SE] Sea Limited: Don't Pull The Buy Trigger Yet (Technical Analysis) Published:7/5/2022 6:08:08 AM
[Entertainment] Kim Kardashian, Hailey Bieber, Gabrielle Union and More Stars Heating Up Summer in Bikinis Kim Kardashian, Pete Davidson, InstagramCheers to good times and tan lines! Although the 4th of July weekend may be over, that doesn't mean you have to put away your favorite swimwear. In fact, July 5 marks National Bikini...
Published:7/5/2022 6:08:08 AM
[Markets] Apollo inks venture for $2 billion LNG marine infrastructure platform Apollo inks venture for $2 billion LNG marine infrastructure platform Published:7/5/2022 6:08:08 AM
[] The Morning Briefing: America-Hating Leftists Should Be Forced to Try the Alternatives Published:7/5/2022 6:08:08 AM
[topics:things/crime] Doctor who lied about his age given three years for negligent manslaughter Published:7/5/2022 6:08:08 AM
[Markets] Bezos' $500 Million Superyacht Trapped At Dutch Shipyard  Bezos' $500 Million Superyacht Trapped At Dutch Shipyard 

Jeff Bezos' massive superyacht was built by Oceanco, a Netherlands-based custom yacht builder, and informed the city of Rotterdam it would scrap the request to dismantle a historic bridge to accommodate the Amazon founder's vessel, according to the Dutch news website Trouw

Bezos' new yacht, codenamed Y721, will have to pass under the Koningshaven Bridge, known locally as De Hef. The landmark bridge can only rise 130 feet into the air, but this isn't far enough to accommodate the yacht's 127-meter schooner and its three massive masts. 

Oceanco built the $500 million vessel for Bezos, and the plan was to have Rotterdam temporarily take apart the bridge -- though now, the shipbuilder abandoned its plans to dismantle the bridge following public outcry earlier this year. 

"As a result of the reports, shipyard employees feel threatened and the company fears vandalism," Trouw reported. 

Rotterdam politician Stephan Leewis recently tweeted Bezos' request was a "bridge too far." 

"This man has earned his money by structurally cutting staff, evading taxes, avoiding regulations and now we have to tear down our beautiful national monument?" Leewis said.

It's unclear how Y721 will now be transported to the North Sea. The superyacht remains at the shipbuilder yard until Rotterdam grants Oceanco permits to dismantle the historic bridge. Residents have said if the possible tear-down occurs, they would organize huge protests against the billionaire and bombard the vessel with rotten eggs as it passes by the bridge. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/05/2022 - 06:55
Published:7/5/2022 6:08:08 AM
[World] 32 High-Waisted Bikinis That Will Help You Feel Your Best This Summer High-Waisted BikinisWe independently selected these deals and products because we love them, and we think you might like them at these prices. E! has affiliate relationships, so we may get a commission if you...
Published:7/5/2022 6:08:08 AM
[Uncategorized] Independence Day Weekend Extravaganza at Legal Insurrection

We hope you had a great holiday!

The post Independence Day Weekend Extravaganza at Legal Insurrection first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:7/5/2022 6:08:08 AM
[World] This Week in Ridiculous Regulations

Happy Independence Day, everyone. The Supreme Court issued a major ruling on the separation of powers in the case West Virginia v. EPA. Agencies issued new regulations ranging from microlending to walnut marketing. On to the data: Agencies issued 78 final regulations in a four-day week last week, after 33 the previous week. That’s the […]

The post This Week in Ridiculous Regulations appeared first on Competitive Enterprise Institute.

Published:7/5/2022 6:08:08 AM
[Paleoclimatology] Claim: Hidden in Caves: Mineral Overgrowths Reveal Unprecedented Modern Sea-Level Rise The team found evidence of a previously unknown 20 centimeter sea-level rise that occurred nearly 3,200 years ago when ice caps melted naturally over the course of 400 years at a rate of 0.5 millimeters per year. Published:7/5/2022 5:00:21 AM
[Markets] 3 Dow Stocks That Are Screaming Buys in July For well over a century, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) has been the most-watched stock index in the world. Originally comprised of 12 mostly industrial companies when it debuted in 1896, the Dow Jones has, today, grown to a 30-stock index packed with profitable, time-tested, and diverse multinational businesses. The maturity of the 30 components that comprise the Dow makes these stocks especially popular with the broader market undergoing its steepest downturn since March 2020, and closing out its worst start to a year since 1970. Published:7/5/2022 5:00:21 AM
[Markets] Hamburg Official Tells Residents Prepare For Hot Water Rationing Amid Energy Crisis  Hamburg Official Tells Residents Prepare For Hot Water Rationing Amid Energy Crisis 

The second-largest city in Germany is mulling over the potential rationing of hot water as the energy crisis worsens. 

"In an acute gas shortage, warm water could only be made available at certain times of the day in an emergency," Hamburg's environment senator Jens Kerstan told German newspaper Welt am Sonntag on Saturday. 

Kerstan also spoke with the German daily newspaper Hamburger Abendblatt and warned, "We are in a much worse crisis than most people realize." 

He asked Hamburg residents to reduce shower times, install energy-saving shower heads, and modernize thermostats for maximum power savings. 

"The more we save now, the better the situation will be in winter because the storage tanks fill up," he added, referring to the need to save power so more NatGas injections can be made into storage ahead of the winter season. 

Kerstan's possible hot water restrictions follow German Vice-Chancellor and Economy Minister Robert Habeck's interview with Der Spiegel magazine last month that called for German citizens to shower less to overcome the worst energy crisis in a generation. 

The German government's increasing talk about reducing shower time and conserving hot water comes as Russia reduced Nordstream NatGas flows by 60%. Germany is heavily reliant on cheap Russian Natgas, and fears mount that Europe's largest economy could face even more NatGas cuts later this summer. 

Weeks ago, Germany triggered the "alarm stage" of its NatGas-emergency plan to address shortages. Yasmin Fahimi, the head of the German Federation of Trade Unions, warned over the weekend, "Because of the NatGas bottlenecks, entire industries are in danger of permanently collapsing: aluminum, glass, the chemical industry." 

Fahimi warned: "Such a collapse would have massive consequences for the entire economy and jobs in Germany."

Germany's worsening energy crisis shows no signs of abating, and it seems probable that Hamburg residents could be showering in cold water. 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/05/2022 - 05:45
Published:7/5/2022 5:00:21 AM
[World] : ‘Deleting this app right now!’ Are period-tracking apps safe to use in a post-Roe world? Period-tracking apps are rushing to revisit their privacy settings and caution users about court orders for information in the wake of the Supreme Court’s ruling
Published:7/5/2022 5:00:21 AM
[Markets] U.S. stock futures turn lower as dollar surges against euro U.S. stock futures turn lower as dollar surges against euro Published:7/5/2022 4:13:52 AM
[National Security] Iran, Russia, China To Run War Drills in Latin America

Iran, Russia, and China are gearing up to run a series of major war drills in Latin America in a show of force meant to signal how these militaries can reach the United States.

The post Iran, Russia, China To Run War Drills in Latin America appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:7/5/2022 4:13:52 AM
[Markets] Global PMIs Promise Further Rates Downside Global PMIs Promise Further Rates Downside

By Simon Flint, Bloomberg Markets Live commentator and analyst

The themes of mounting recession risks and declining price pressure - leading to lower rates - are apparent in JP Morgan’s consolidated manufacturing PMIs for June.  The overall manufacturing PMIs showed a falling headline figure, and more depressed new orders. Rapidly improving price data and Supplier Delivery Times (SDTs) undercut inflation fears. In more detail:

The global manufacturing PMI declined by only 0.1 point to 52.2, held up by parts of EM and rogue G-10 countries like Australia.

This figure has been trending lower since May 2021

  • New orders were less encouraging, falling 0.8 points to 50.1. This bodes somewhat ill for the headline number, which has a 20% lagged correlation in changes terms since July 2019
  • Output prices fell to 65.8, decisively lower than the April peak of 69.9, and the largest decline since April 2020
  • SDTs improved sharply with the most rapid rate of improvement since June 2020 and now sit well above the pits of 34.7 in Oct. 2021

The global PMIs have both coincident and leading relationships with 10-year interest rates, suggesting that yields can fall. 

Using data from July 2019 through June 2022, the levels correlation for the headline number, new orders, output prices, and Supplier Delivery Times (SDTs) are 30%, 55%, 63% and -15% respectively (remember SDTs are inverted, so a lower number is more inflationary). These correlations tend to rise steadily until the PMIs are lagged by four months.

Readers might immediately think that these figures are blown-up by the Covid shock, making them very unreliable.

But using data from 2015 through 2019, simultaneous changes and lagged correlations with yields are surprisingly high, at least for output prices and SDT. Output prices enjoy an 88% simultaneous correlation in terms of changes and the correlation remains above 40% until the 3rd lag. SDTs start insignificant at -10% (concurrent), but correlations intensify steadily to -43% at a 6-month lag. The headline PMI number correlated by an average of 13% over 1-5 month lags.

This makes sense. The recent focus on inflation risk has been key for rates, and can be immediately felt through higher output prices. SDTs tend to act with a delay, as unresolved supply problems are more gradually pushed into prices. This looks to be borne out by a somewhat lagged relationship between SDTs and output prices.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/05/2022 - 05:00
Published:7/5/2022 4:13:52 AM
[Political Cartoons] ‘The Big Guy’

by Tom Stiglich at CDN -

See more Stiglich (@TStig822) toons HERE.

Click to read the rest HERE-> ‘The Big Guy’ first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:7/5/2022 4:13:52 AM
[Culture] This Jewish Skateboarder Spoke Out About Women’s Rights. Social Justice Warriors Responded With Anti-Semitic Hate.

Taylor Silverman is grateful for all the anti-Semitic Instagram comments. The 27-year-old amateur skateboarder made waves earlier this year when she spoke out against biological men participating in women’s sports. A self-described Zionist who is rarely photographed without a Star of David necklace, Silverman wasn’t surprised that online backlash quickly turned anti-Semitic. But she’s a […]

The post This Jewish Skateboarder Spoke Out About Women’s Rights. Social Justice Warriors Responded With Anti-Semitic Hate. appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:7/5/2022 4:13:52 AM
[Markets] Kelley Blue Book: How electric truck buyers are hedging their bets Customers who reserved a Cybertruck, Rivian, Ford F-150 Lightning or Chevy Silverado EV are making sure they get the first one to come along.
Published:7/5/2022 4:13:52 AM
[Comedy] Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[41ba65a4-1ad4-55cc-82cb-f03bcb2021f5] Carmen Electra says joining OnlyFans is 'empowering' and praises 'safe' haven for creators: 'I'm my own boss' The Baywatch star also gave Denise Richards and Sami Sheen, 18, words of advice after the mother-daughter duo launched new careers on the online platform. Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[4d689e02-9e30-5120-b638-4305043cfed8] Abrams campaign has spent over $450K on private security, despite radical 'defund the police' group ties Georgia Democrat Stacey Abrams, whose campaign has doled out over $450K for private security, is on the board of directors for a radical foundation that wants to abolish police. Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[AAP] My Top 10 High Yield Dividend Stocks For July 2022 Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[Markets] Scandinavian airline SAS files for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Scandinavian airline SAS files for chapter 11 bankruptcy protection in the U.S. Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[Podcasts] A Road Map for Finding Success and Happiness

Tom Lewis knows what it takes to find success and happiness in life. He’s a living example. As founder of the T.W. Lewis Co., an... Read More

The post A Road Map for Finding Success and Happiness appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[Markets] FTSE falls as UK braces for first national rail strike in 25 years Union bosses have warned of further disruption during the Summer holiday period as British commuters face rail, air and road travel chaos. Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[topics:organisations/labour-party] Five Labour mayors back workers' right to strike to 'defend their livelihoods' Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[Markets] UK Fuel Price Protests Cripple Motorways With "Go-Slow" Convoys UK Fuel Price Protests Cripple Motorways With "Go-Slow" Convoys

British authorities warned drivers of "serious disruption" on Monday as protestors seeking relief from high fuel costs used "go-slow" convoys to cause traffic jams on major UK motorways over a wide swath of territory. 

Organized via social media under the banner of "Fuel Price Stand Against Tax," rolling, slow-moving roadblocks of cars, trucks and tractors started their protests around 7am. According to The Guardian

Motorways in the Bristol area, Devon, Cornwall, south Wales, Essex, Yorkshire and Lincolnshire were among those affected. Two tractors caused long tailbacks into Aberdeen by driving slowly side by side along the A92 northbound.

Police escorted some of the blockades, only to block them at their turnaround points and make arrests. The PA News Agency reports a dozen motorists were detained after blocking traffic across the Prince of Wales Bridge between South Wales and Somerset. The Telegraph reported the bridge was hardest hit in the protest, with traffic closed for more than an hour. 

“The right to protest under UK law must be balanced with the rights of the wider community who may be affected," said Gwent police chief superintendent Tom Harding. UK authorities say the protests threaten to impede the response of emergency services. 

The founder of the FairFuelUK, Howard Cox, told the Scottish Sun that protestors were targeting three-lane freeways, with the intent to slow traffic in two lanes while leaving the "fast lane" free.  

a police officer points to spike strips while talking to a man holding a sign reading
Police used spike strips to prevent a protest convoy from entering a freeway (Cameron Smith/Getty Images via Guardian)

The price of petrol in the UK has surged to to a record 191.53 pence per liter, which equates to $8.78 a gallon.—the highest among the five largest European economies.

The protestors are bent on achieving a cut in fuel taxes. None of their quoted rhetoric connects the dots between the price at the pump and Western sanctions against Russia. In March, the UK declared it will phase out Russian oil imports by December, as will the European Union. 

Cox told The Independent the effort is largely driven by small business owners: 

“People are at the end of their tether. This is hard-working, decent people who are fed up to their back teeth with the high cost of pump prices. Across Europe, diesel is on average 25p cheaper and petrol 20p cheaper than in the UK. Germany cut fuel tax by 26p, Spain by 20p and Ireland by 17p. Why can’t the Government do the same? They did 5p in the Spring Statement and it didn’t even touch the sides.”

That 5 pence tax cut came in March and is slated to last until March 2023. At the time, UK Chancellor of the Exchequer Rishi Sunak touted it as "the biggest cut to all fuel duty rates ever." The 8.6% cut left the tax at 53 pence per liter. 

Protestor Vicky Stamper told The Guardian she and her partner quit their jobs because they couldn't afford the commute. “It was costing us £380 [$460] a week just to get to and from work. I then lost a job two weeks ago because the company couldn’t afford to put fuel in that many lorries so last in, first out,” she said. 

Protestors warned their next action might come in the form of a blockade on oil refineries. When previously employed in 2000 by farmers and truck drivers fighting taxes so high they represented 80% of the cost of gas, just one week of the tactic caused havoc, from huge lines at gas pumps to mail stoppages and grocery-rationing. 

The Royal Automobile Club (RAC), akin to the American Automobile Club, told Bloomberg the rising price at the pump is inconsistent with a five-week drop in wholesale prices. “We would love to hear their reasoning for keeping their prices so high in this instance,” said RAC spokesman Simon Williams.  

Some drivers on the M4 stepped out of their idle vehicles and took the opportunity to hone their soccer skills—or, football skills, if you like: 

Idled drivers on the M4 pass the time with a "kickabout" (screenshot from Guardian video

 

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/05/2022 - 04:15
Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[Markets] Market Extra: With prices skirting a 17-month low, Dr Copper’s prognosis about the global economy is downbeat The Nymex copper contract flirted with sub-$3.50 per pound, its cheapest since February 2021.
Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[] Daily Tech News 5 July 2022 Top Story Me: Interest rates are at historic lows, screw finding a new place to rent, I'm going to buy a house. Reserve Bank of Australia: Increases interest rates three times in three months. (Domain) Thanks guys. Though at least... Published:7/5/2022 3:24:48 AM
[d777c358-538e-52d9-b5e8-21d832bfbc7f] July 4th politics: Hassan charges her GOP challengers in battleground New Hampshire are ‘extreme opponents’ Democratic Sen. Hassan of New Hampshire charges in a Fox News interview that her Republican challengers in the crucial battleground state are ‘extreme opponents’ Published:7/5/2022 1:08:44 AM
[CUSPY] Bonhoeffer Capital - Countryside Partnerships: A 44% IRR Over The Next Five Years Published:7/5/2022 1:08:44 AM
[Climate Hypocrisy] Climate Activist Hypocrisy Example Eleventy Gazillion Just Stop Oil Protestor Who Pulled ‘Hay Wain’ Painting Stunt Has Racked Up 50,000 Air Miles on Exotic Holidays Published:7/5/2022 1:08:44 AM
[Markets] The Woke Inquisitors Have Come For The Freethinking Heretics The Woke Inquisitors Have Come For The Freethinking Heretics

Authored by J.B.Shurk via The Gatestone Institute,

Attacks on free speech are on the rise.

A British college recently expelled a student for expressing support for the government's official policy of deporting illegal immigrants. A Wisconsin school district charged three middle-schoolers with sexual harassment last month for refusing to use the plural pronoun "they" when referring to a single classmate. US President Joe Biden's National Climate Advisor Gina McCarthy recently encouraged social media companies to censor from their online platforms any opinions that contradict Biden's climate change narrative.

In its continued commitment to preserve the government's monopoly over COVID-19 information, Twitter actually suspended a medical doctor for merely sharing a scientific study that suggests the Pfizer vaccine affects male fertility. And the NFL's Washington Commanders fined defensive coordinator Jack Del Rio $100,000 and forced him to apologize only weeks ago for having expressed his opinion that 2020's summer of riots across the United States after George Floyd's death was more destructive than the few hours of mayhem at the Capitol on January 6, 2021.

In contrast, it has become newsworthy that entertainment powerhouse Paramount has chosen not to censor old movies and television shows containing content that today's "woke" scolds might find "offensive." In a "cancel culture" world where censorship and trigger warnings have become the norm, preserving the artistic integrity of a film is now considered outright daring. In fact, even publishers of old literary classics have begun rewriting content to conform with "politically correct" sensibilities.

Examples such as these, where personal speech is either censored or punished, are becoming much more frequent, and anybody who minimizes the threat this increased intolerance for free expression poses to a democratic society is either gullibly or willfully blind. As any defender of liberty knows, nothing more quickly transforms a free society into a totalitarian prison than crackdowns on speech. Of all the tools of coercion available to a government, preventing individuals from freely expressing their thoughts is most dangerous. Denying citizens that most basic societal release valve for pent-up anger and disagreement only heightens the risk for outright violence down the line. Either silenced citizens become so enraged that conflict becomes inevitable, or the iron fist of government force descends on the public more broadly to preemptively curtail that possibility. Either way, the result is a disaster for any free society.

For Americans who cherish free speech, this undeniable war on language and expression is jolting but not shocking. Whenever censorship slithers back into polite society, it is always draped in the mantle of "good intentions."

Fifteenth-century Dominican friar Girolamo Savonarola's "bonfire of the vanities" destroyed anything that could be seen to invite or reflect sin.

The notorious 1933 Nazi book burning at the Bebelplatz in Berlin torched some 20,000 books deemed subversive or "un-German".

During Communist China's decade-long Cultural Revolution in the 1960s and '70s, the vast majority of China's traditional scrolls, literature and religious antiquities went up in smoke.

All three atrocities were celebrated as achievements for the "greater good" of society, and people inebriated with "good intentions" set their cultural achievements aflame with fervor and triumph. Much like today's new censors who claim to "fight hate" because "that's not who we are," the arsonists of the past saw themselves as moral paragons, too. They purged anything "obscene" or "traditional" or "old," so that theocracy, Nazism, or communism could take root and grow. And if Western institutions today are purging ideas once again, then it is past time for people to start asking just what those institutions plan to harvest next.

We in the West are running — not walking — toward another "bonfire of the vanities" in which normal people, egged on by their leaders, will eagerly destroy their own culture while claiming to save it. This time around the "vanities" will be condemned for their racist, sexist, transphobic, anti-science or climate-denying ways, but when they are thrown into the fire, it is dissent and free expression that will burn.

There will one day be much disagreement as to how the same Western Civilization that produced the Enlightenment and its hallowed regard for free expression could once again surrender itself to the petty tyranny of censorship.

Many will wonder how the West's much-vaunted "liberal" traditions could meekly fold to the specter of state-controlled speech.

The answer is that the West has fallen into the same trap that always catches unsuspecting citizens by surprise: the steady encroachment on free speech has been sold as a "virtue" that all good people should applaud.

First, certain thoughts became "aggravating factors" that turned traditional crimes into new "hate crimes" deserving of additional punishment.

Then the definition of what is "hateful" grew until politicians could comfortably decree anything at odds with their agendas to be examples of "hate."

Who would be for "hate," after all? Surely no-one of good sense or good manners.

Now "hate" has transformed into an elusive description for any speech that can be alleged to cause the slightest of harms.

From there, it was easy for the state to decree that "disinformation," or rather anything that can be seen to contradict the state's own official narratives, causes "harm," too.

Those who despise free speech told society, "If you do not punish hate, then you're a bigot." And today, if you oppose the government's COVID-19, climate change, immigration, or other contentious policies, your harmful "disinformation" must be punished, too.

It is a slippery slope, is it not? Once governments normalize censorship and the punishment of points of view, free expression is firmly stamped with an expiration date.

After the Nazis went down this poisonous path, repentant Germans built a public memorial to remember the book burning at the Bebelplatz and ensure its tragic lesson was never forgotten. On a plaque in the square is a commemorative engraving, paraphrasing the 19th century German writer Heinrich Heine:

"That was only a prelude; where they burn books, they will in the end also burn people."

That warning comes with no expiration date.

Tyler Durden Tue, 07/05/2022 - 02:00
Published:7/5/2022 1:08:44 AM
[In The News] President Joe Biden’s Schedule for Tuesday, July 5, 2022

by Rich Mitchell at CDN -

Schedule Summary: President Joe Biden will receive a briefing then award the Medal of Honor to Vietnam War soldiers. Please check back with CDN often as the White House frequently updates the president’s schedule and live streams come online later in the day. President Joe Biden’s Itinerary for 7/5/22 Live stream links …

Click to read the rest HERE-> President Joe Biden’s Schedule for Tuesday, July 5, 2022 first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:7/5/2022 1:08:43 AM
[Markets] The Wall Street Journal: Biden could announce easing in some China tariffs this week, say sources The Office of the U.S. Trade Representative is conducting a mandatory four-year review of the Trump-era tariffs. 
Published:7/5/2022 12:49:53 AM
[Opinion] Amidst Deadly Amtrak Crashes and Aging Infrastructures, We Must “Make Construction Great Again”

by Dear Rest Of America at CDN -

Every accident is a tragedy—but it’s worse when one believes it might have been prevented. In the space of three days, three separate Amtrak trains struck a dump truck or a car, killing at least eight people and injuring over 150 people. The crashes occurred in rural Missouri, Michigan and California in …

Click to read the rest HERE-> Amidst Deadly Amtrak Crashes and Aging Infrastructures, We Must “Make Construction Great Again” first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:7/5/2022 12:49:53 AM
[14818aa3-43fb-50f1-830e-836e77b1ed3b] I am a Democrat and I still love my country Our nation's flaws and mistakes, including the Supreme Court decision overturning Roe v. Wade, shouldn't blind us to all the things that make the United States of America great. Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Guns] [Eugene Volokh] Massachusetts A.G. on Concealed Carry After Bruen From guidance issued Friday: It remains unlawful to carry a firearm in Massachusetts without a license…. Licensing authorities should continue to enforce the "prohibited person" and "suitability" provisions of the license-to-carry statute…. Licensing authorities should cease enforcement of the "good reason" provision of the license-to-carry statute in response to Bruen. Authorities should no longer deny,… Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Law] The Numbers Behind Pennsylvania’s Turmoil Over Transgender Women in Prison

Almost 200 biological males behind bars in Pennsylvania’s state prisons say they identify as women. A small number of them are seeking a transfer to... Read More

The post The Numbers Behind Pennsylvania’s Turmoil Over Transgender Women in Prison appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Markets] The Margin: Macy’s Fourth of July fireworks: how to watch and what’s new in the star-spangled show On July 4, 48,000 shells and effects will light the sky with new shapes like howling wolves and color-changing ghosts. Here's where to watch or stream.
Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Opinion] Joe Biden, Stop Insulting Us

by Ray Cardello at CDN -

This fiasco is getting to the point where it is difficult to be respectful of the President of the United States. China is lauding the Joe Biden message. Doesn’t that tell you all you need to know? Joe Biden is screwing the American people. Drop the mic. I don’t want …

Click to read the rest HERE-> Joe Biden, Stop Insulting Us first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[4cbf5309-53a4-5b0f-86a3-22058b9c26ce] Katy Perry, Bette Midler and Jessica Chastain lead online Independence Day protests: 'July 4th canceled' Katy Perry, Bette Midler and Jessica Chastain protested against Independence Day and claimed women's rights were stripped after Supreme Court decision. Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[World] BLOODBATH: Six Dead, Two Dozen Wounded at Suburban Chicago 4th of July Parade [UPDATED] Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Politics] [MAJOR UPDATE: ARRESTED] – Identity of Highland Park shooter revealed   🚨🚨🚨 MAJOR UPDATE: Crimo has now been arrested and is in custody: BREAKING: Suspected parade shooter Robert Crimo is in custody. There was a brief pursuit after he was spotted by . . . Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[World] Saving the lives of millions of children not just a 'political victory' Last week the Supreme Court of the United States handed down a number of rulings reaffirming an originalist interpretation of America's Constitution and its federalist assumptions. Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[World] Portrait of a victim: a 76-year-old grandfather who hadn’t wanted to attend the parade. Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Entertainment] Why Victoria Beckham Is Concerned for Daughter Harper to Join "Quite Terrifying" Social Media Victoria Beckham, HarperVictoria Beckham isn't exactly ready for her daughter to have an Instagram profile. The former Spice Girls member shared that her daughter Harper Beckham, 10, isn't on any social...
Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Uncategorized] Media Hoax: News Outlets Misreport Justice Clarence Thomas Quote in NY Vaccine Mandate Case

"Clarence Thomas suggests COVID vaccines are made with 'aborted children'," Axios falsely reported. Several other media outlets filed similar dishonest reports, including NBC News and Politico.

The post Media Hoax: News Outlets Misreport Justice Clarence Thomas Quote in NY Vaccine Mandate Case first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Black Lives Matter] A Shooting In Akron (John Hinderaker) Riots have been taking place in Akron, Ohio, following the shooting by police of Jayland Walker. The incident occurred in June, but release of police bodycam footage has sparked the riots. The case has made international news. The London Times, for example, headlined Jayland Walker: Plea for calm after Ohio police kill unarmed black man. The other fact that has gotten much publicity is that officers–I believe there were eight Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Climate Propaganda] Shameless: Aussie Climate Council Now Claims Floods Caused by CO2 Tim Flannery, Climate Council Founder, in 2006: "even the rain that falls isn’t actually going to fill our dams and our river systems". Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Crime and punishment] The horrible shooting in Highland Park I have a few observations/guesses, some about shootings in general, and some about the specific guy currently tagged as the shooter. First, my sincere condolences to all whose lives were taken or touched by the terrible violence at the Independence Day parade. Second, a few thoughts relying on the very Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise, Bond Yields Jump; BYD Leaves Tesla In The Dust Don't feed the bear market, prepare for the next bull run. Tesla deliveries fell sharply in Q2 with BYD on tap. Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[] Monday Overnight Open Thread (7/4/22) Independence Day Edition *** In Congress, July 4, 1776 The unanimous Declaration of the thirteen united States of America, When in the Course of human events, it becomes necessary for one people to dissolve the political bands which have connected them with... Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Markets] The People Crafting US Policy Aren't In America The People Crafting US Policy Aren't In America

Authored by Joseph Solis-Mullen via The Libertarian Institute/Mises.org,

In a piece of news that shocked the mainstream media, but which shocked no one familiar with the academic industry writ large, retired US Army general John Allen was forced to resign as president of the Brookings Institution after it was revealed the FBI was investigating him for lobbying on behalf of the Qatari monarchy.

Of course, the real news, scarcely noted by The Washington PostNew York Times, or any other purported paper of record, is that Allen was only really in trouble because he hadn’t fulfilled the pro forma legal requirements for those lobbying the U.S. government on behalf of a foreign agent or government.

The Foreign Agents Registration Act (FARA), under which such activities are regulated, includes several exceptions that allow for such activities without declaring a conflict of interest. Think tanks, a misnomer if ever there was one, operate under an "academic exception" that allows for engagement in "bona fide religious, scholastic, academic, or scientific pursuits or the fine arts."

Anyone who has ever picked up one of the many deadly dull social science journals where actual, bona fide empirical academic work is done knows this constitutes perhaps a fraction of what think tanks almost daily churn out. Rather think tank commentary, touted as objective analysis, is regularly featured or cited by publications and outlets as apparently diverse as The Wall Street Journal and NPR.

Of course, think tanks are hardly alone. As Ben Freeman, a specialist on foreign influence on U.S. policy, has documented, such democratic bastions of liberal values as the UAE and Saudi Arabia donate hundreds of millions, even billions, to universities around the country.

Of course, from a libertarian perspective, who is to say who should be giving money to whom and for what? Further, FARA’s provisions are so nebulous that virtually anyone could be targeted for virtually any reason, an obvious opportunity for unaccountable federal officials to impinge on Americans’ civil liberties.

But the blatant hypocrisy of it all is what really stands out, as the same universities and think tanks regularly decry the apparently perfidious influence of countries like China, which they breathlessly warn uses our "open institutions" for its own gain. Should any of their number dare to go off message and report, for example, on the well-documented and wholly negative influence of countries like Israel on US foreign policy, they are tarred as anti-Semites, racists, or foreign agents themselves!

The truth is the powerful Israel and Saudi Arabia lobbies have been able to steer US policy in directions clearly at odds with the best interests of the American people for decades. Unsurprisingly, perhaps nowhere has the deleterious effect of their money been more felt than in US policy toward Iran, with the Saudis, Israelis, and Emiratis dumping literally billions of dollars into attacks on a country the United States should have normalized relations with decades ago.

The Uyghur lobby is another such interest group that enjoys an open door in Congress and the op-ed pages of prominent papers—this while its nakedly paramilitary arm advocates the violent overthrow of the Beijing government! And what are we, or foreign governments like China, to think when the parent organization of such extremists, the World Uyghur Congress, takes funding from the US government itself? We aren’t supposed to think about it at all.

Just like we aren’t supposed to question any of the other nakedly self-serving policies. Who, for example, is surprised to learn there is a large and active Ukraine lobby in Washington? That has paid off handsomely, with our government now handing over $130 million daily to Kyiv with little to no oversight.

And of course, most maddeningly, any critically thinking American who even dares to question the US government’s obviously dangerous and counterproductive policies, bought and paid for by literal foreign agents, are themselves accused of being in the pay of Moscow, Beijing, or Tehran.

Never mind that all the evidence points in the opposite direction.

Again, the American people aren’t expected to think at all, only to stay in line and keep the money flowing. This is the sad state of foreign policy in America, and it happens right out in the open.

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/04/2022 - 23:30
Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[World] A Time of Sonorous Prose

No writer can fully escape the spirit of his own age.

The post A Time of Sonorous Prose appeared first on The American Conservative.

Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[World] Brittney Griner pleads with Biden for help in letter from Russian jail In a handwritten letter to President Joe Biden, WNBA superstar Brittney Griner asked the president not to forget about her and other Americans being detained in Russia. Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[topics:things/further-education] Fewer graduates could get first-class degrees next year, warn universities Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Entertainment] What to watch on Tuesday: ‘The Great Muslim American Road Trip’ airs on PBS Tuesday, July 5, 2022 | 'Titans' returns to TNT. Published:7/5/2022 12:12:43 AM
[Comedy] AmeriKKKa [Cynical] corruption of "America" (as in [United States of America]) especially as relevant to the worst [deeds] and attitudes of its government; used by citizens of the country and others alike.
Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Politics] Pausing the gas tax would have been great for Democrats. Instead we got a July 4 price increase

California lawmakers could have suspended the increase and, for that matter, the entire excise tax, but the Legislature's liberal leadership balked, columnist George Skelton writes.

Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[EBBGF] Better High Yield SWAN Buy: Enbridge Vs. The Williams Companies Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Entertainment] Paul Tremblay delivers another mind-bending horror novel "The Pallbearers Club" is presented as a found memoir manuscript, complicated by the contradictory annotation of an enigmatic woman. Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Russian Invasion of Ukraine (2022)] In Ukraine, U.S. Veterans Step In Where the Military Will Not Special Operations veterans are training Ukrainians near the front lines in the fight against Russia, despite warnings from the Pentagon. Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Foreign Forces] U.K. Foreign Secretary Warns Against Easing Pressure on Russia The United Kingdom’s foreign secretary told attendees at a forum on NATO’s future it was crucial that Russia loses its invasion into Ukraine. Speaking a few hours before NATO begun its formal meeting in Madrid, Liz Truss warned against bargaining with Moscow for a false peace. “We have to defeat Russia first,” she said. Secretary of […] Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Immigration] [Ilya Somin] Thoughts on the Declaration of Independence and the American Revolution A compendium of some of my previous writings on these topics, which I hope remain relevant today. Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Society] Don’t Blame Manufacturers for Rising Food Prices. They’re Hit By Inflation and Higher Costs, Too, Experts Say

Most recognized in the recent record-high gas prices, the far-reaching effects of inflation are now moving to the food supply chain, experts say.   While... Read More

The post Don’t Blame Manufacturers for Rising Food Prices. They’re Hit By Inflation and Higher Costs, Too, Experts Say appeared first on The Daily Signal.

Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Markets] Market Extra: Ray Dalio attacks U.S. populists and warns Russia may be ‘lesser loser’ in Ukraine war The founder of Bridgewater Associates took to Linkedin on the U.S. Independence Day holiday to deliver an update on forces he believes are shaping the world.
Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[American Exceptionalism] I am proud of my country

  A new poll shows a declining trend in pride in America. The Wisconsin Lt. Governor and Senate candidate says the founding of the country was “awful.” Young Americans are pledging not to celebrate July 4. This is no surprise given the constant stream of trash talking from the Communists on the left. Mara Gay: […]

The post I am proud of my country appeared first on Flopping Aces.

Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Gear] The 36 Best Fourth of July Deals on Kitchen Gizmos and Tech Independence Day is here, and so are the savings. We’ve rounded up plenty of sales on air purifiers, office chairs, massage guns, and more. Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[topics:people/boris-johnson] Monday evening UK news briefing: Putin's orders to Russian forces after seizing Luhansk Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[World] Biden's war on women As if $5 a gallon gas, a baby formula shortage and record-high inflation weren't stressful enough for American women, we now have another problem on our hands, a tampon shortage. Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[4890cfb7-8b7f-529d-9059-828b9316849c] Kate Hudson poses topless on Instagram and receives awkward reaction from older brother Oliver Kate Hudson had an awkward interaction with her older brother, Oliver, after she shared a topless photo to her millions of followers on social media Saturday. Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Coal] “No More Excuses”: Aussie Academics Demand Global Paris Agreement Compliance Aussie climate academics demanding better international compliance with their diktats. Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Politics] BREAKING: Five dead, 16 injured during mass shooting at 4th of July parade near Chicago [UPDATED] A man stood on the roof of a store this morning and opened fire into a crowd at a 4th of July parade in Highland Park, Illinois, which is a suburb of . . . Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[a8aeefa6-54a8-5225-8096-b373b8b31f91] Kamala Harris heading to Chicago after bloody July 4th holiday weekend Vice President Kamala Harris is expected to travel to Chicago, Illinois, on Tuesday, following a weekend of deadly shootings across the city. Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Uncategorized] China’s New Censorship Law to Stifle Free Speech For Foreign Leagues Like NBA

Under the new Chinese "law on sports, the authorities reserved the right to strike back at any country, region or organization involved in global sports that's perceived as insulting China's dignity and interests."

The post China’s New Censorship Law to Stifle Free Speech For Foreign Leagues Like NBA first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Middle Column] Al Gore tells NYT: ‘Fossil fuels pose a significant & ongoing threat to democracy’ – Warns of ‘a sense of climate despair’

Al Gore in NYT interview: "It is clear that our reliance on fossil fuels poses a significant and ongoing threat to democracy around the world. We must embrace the shift away from fossil fuels and refuse to allow democracy to be held hostage by petrostates like Russia. ... It has been clear for quite some time that capitalism as we know it is in significant need of reform."

"The United States and every other country around the world has reached a critical inflection point on the climate crisis, which certainly raises the risk of backsliding, though I believe history will view this as an accelerant on our transition away from fossil fuels." 

"More and more people are feeling a sense of climate despair and anxiety as the crisis worsens. Despair can be just as powerful a force against climate action as denial has been."

Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Opinion] Independence Day: Our Past, Present And Future

by Chad Robichaux at CDN -

On July 4, 1776, the American people revolted against a tyrannical empire that had long oppressed them. Through steadfast determination, Christian values and democratic principles, they declared independence against overwhelming odds. Today, we celebrate Independence Day with fireworks, BBQ, parades, and the waiving of old glory while praising a day …

Click to read the rest HERE-> Independence Day: Our Past, Present And Future first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Entertainment] See How Shawn Johnson, Tom Brady and More Are Spending 4th of July Shawn Johnson, Andrew EastLight the grill, hop in the pool and get ready to pop some fireworks! It's the 4th of July and some of your favorite stars--including Shawn Johnson, Michelle Obama, Christina Haack...
Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[] However much time Conan O'Brien spent crafting his Independence Day commemoration, it was way too much Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Markets] Beauty Contests And Market Bottoms Beauty Contests And Market Bottoms

By Nick Colas of DataTrek Research

Today we will discuss an early classic in the field of behavioral finance: John Maynard Keynes’ “Beauty Contest”. Its lesson is that market prices are set by what investors think other investors think. At present, that dynamic is creating ever-lower stock prices because of the increasingly consensus idea that the S&P 500 will bottom somewhere between 3,000 and 3,400. Those levels come from expectations of lower earnings due to a recession. The bottom will come when investors think other investors believe it has arrived.

For Story Time Thursday this week we have a discussion of an early behavioral finance concept called the “Keynes Beauty Contest”. While distinctly out of step with modern values – the idea comes from John Maynard Keynes 1936 work “The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money” - it is still a hugely useful paradigm today. Especially today, frankly …

Richard Thaler published a wonderful analysis of the Beauty Contest in 2015 (link below), which quotes from the 1936 Keynes work to describe how it works:

  • Imagine a newspaper contest “in which the competitors have to pick out the six prettiest faces from 100 photographs, the prize being awarded to the competitor whose choice most nearly corresponds to the average preferences of the competitors as a whole …”

  • “ … each competitor has to pick, not those faces that he himself finds prettiest, but those that he thinks likeliest to catch the fancy of other competitors, all of whom are looking at the problem from the same point of view …”

The analogy to equity markets:

  • Investors and traders look for investment ideas they think other market participants will find more attractive in the future.

  • The timeframe may be a day or a week for a trader and 6-12 months for an investor, but the idea is the same. Buy things that you expect other people will find more valuable at some future date. Any analysis worth pursuing must be in service to that goal.

The hard bit about the Beauty Contest as far as its application to investing is that it is iterative. It is not enough to pick faces you think the crowd will find attractive. Everyone else is doing that too. To win, you must run multiple cycles of “what will the crowd think?”

Thaler’s article updates Keynes’ idea with a numerical version which explains why this is so challenging:

  • “Guess a number from zero to 100, with the goal of making your guess as close as possible to two-thirds of the average guess of all those participating in the contest.”

  • “To help you think about this puzzle, suppose there are three players who guess 20, 30 and 40 respectively. The average guess would be 30, two-thirds of which is 20, so the person who guessed 20 would win.”

  • The naïve guess would be 50 – the midpoint between 1 and 100 – based on the assumption contestants are lazy and would just pick random numbers rather than latch on to the wrinkle of “two-thirds of the average guess”.

  • More educated guesses might be 33 (two thirds of that 50 naïve estimate) or 22 (on the assumption contestants have thought the problem through, but not iterated one level deeper).

Math nerds will think of this as a Nash equilibrium problem, and Thaler makes the point the only viable answer using this approach is zero. Iterate the last point’s math ad infinitum and you get zero. Yes, this assumes only math Ph.D.s are playing the game. But it is a logical conclusion nonetheless.

We can use this idea to estimate what market participants think fair value on the S&P 500 is today:

The naïve guess is today’s close: 3785. We’ve had a horrible first half of 2022, and maybe all the bad news is finally baked into stock prices.

The second order guess might be 3,386, if we assume investors will think other market participants will key off either pre-pandemic highs and/or discount a modest earnings recession:

  • This was the last S&P 500 high before the Pandemic Recession (February 19th, 2020).

  • It is also 18x S&P earnings of $188/share, which is roughly 15 percent (14.5 pct, to be exact) below current earnings power of $220/share.

  • While earnings typically decline 25 percent in a recession, perhaps any upcoming economic downturn will be milder than most. The 18x multiple is slightly richer than the 10-year average of 17x, but fair since investors tend to pay more for trough earnings as they anticipate higher earnings in a recovery.

The third order guess could be around 3,000, if investors believe markets must discount a full-blown recession before there is enough general interest in stocks to make for a durable low:

  • Assume an average hit (25 pct decline) to S&P earnings from a recession and you get $165/share versus the current $220/share earnings power.

  • Put an 18x multiple on that $166/share and you get an S&P of 2,970.

Takeaway: fair value on the S&P – or any other stock market index – is a function of what investors think other investors think. In bull markets those beliefs are iteratively revised upwards. In bear markets, such as now, those revisions trend lower until specific catalysts change investor perceptions. Then, the whole cycle starts all over again. At the end of a very difficult 6 months for stock prices, it is worth remembering that there is always a low and a next bull market. The goal now is to play defense until those arrive.

Source: Thaler article: https://www.chicagobooth.edu/review/keyness-beauty-contest

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/04/2022 - 14:30
Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Culture] Happy Independence Day? (John Hinderaker) I am so old, I can remember when liberals at least pretended to be patriotic. And some of them really were. George McGovern, for instance, was a legitimate World War II hero, flying a B-24 Liberator in combat. He was wrong about many things, but he wasn’t wrong because he hated his country. Fast forward to now. We have been seeing poll data for some years, indicating that liberals generally Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[] Alec Baldwin Threatens Twitter User: ‘I’ll Find You' Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[Chicago] At least 6 dead, dozens hurt in Highland Park July Fourth parade shooting

At least 6 dead, dozens hurt in Highland Park July Fourth parade shooting. We pray for the people and their families. Please note that Illinois has some very strict gun laws, which again, didn’t work. Meanwhile, as of July 4th, Chicago proper has had 12 people shot and killed, and 57 people wounded, which will […]

The post At least 6 dead, dozens hurt in Highland Park July Fourth parade shooting appeared first on IHTM.

Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[] Leftwingers Push "F*** the Fourth" Anti-American Campaign for Independence Day; Pima County (Arizona) Democrat Party Retweets, and Adds, "F*ck the Fourth" America is back, baby. I wonder if this stirring of hatred against Fourth of July celebrations has anything to do with the mass shooting. Update on the shooting, via Will: five dead, sixteen shot. I saw an account claiming that... Published:7/4/2022 1:45:54 PM
[f0a88de1-992e-5ff1-afe9-ae340680ed21] Wisconsin Democrat Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes says founding of America ‘awful’ Wisconsin Lt. Gov. and U.S. Senate candidate Mandela Barnes (D) was filmed on video telling an audience the founding of America was awful and terrible. Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[] The Morning Briefing: Happy Independence Day to Freedom Loving Americans! Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[In The News] Medal of Honor Monday: Marine Corps Pfc. Melvin Newlin

by Katie Lange at CDN -

Just because you don’t have the best upbringing doesn’t mean you can’t go on to do great things.   That was the case for Marine Corps Private 1st Class Melvin E. Newlin. He didn’t have the ideal life growing up, but the actions he performed in Vietnam to save his fellow …

Click to read the rest HERE-> Medal of Honor Monday: Marine Corps Pfc. Melvin Newlin first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[Climate News Roundup] Weekly Climate and Energy News Roundup #510 "The decision is a very welcome reaffirmation of the Constitutional rights of citizens of the United States. Untouched is the question of whether the Constitution allows Congress to make scientifically incorrect decisions by majority vote, for example: that carbon dioxide, a beneficial gas that is essential to life on Earth, is a pollutant."? William Happer on West Virginia et al. v. EPA, June 30, 2022 Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[Coronavirus Omicron Variant] Updated Covid Shots Are Coming. Will They Be Too Late? The government has greenlit new vaccines to defend against the latest Omicron variants. But the shots won’t arrive until the fall, and cases are rising now. Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[Culture] Happy Independence Day!

The Washington Free Beacon staff wishes its readers a happy Fourth of July!

The post Happy Independence Day! appeared first on Washington Free Beacon.

Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[MU] Micron Technology: Gross Margin Deteriorating Rapidly Points To More Share Price Downside Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[Markets] How Far Could the Stock Market Fall? 2 Indicators May Hold the Answer If there's a perfect word to sum up the first six months of 2022 for the investing community, I believe it's "Yuck!" As of the closing bell on June 30, 2022, the U.S. stock market delivered its worst first-half return in 52 years. Since hitting their respective all-time closing highs between mid-November and the first week of January, the widely followed Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), broad-based S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-stock-driven Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), respectively plunged by as much as 19%, 24%, and 34%. You'll note these figures firmly entrench the S&P 500 and Nasdaq in a bear market, with the iconic Dow Jones just one bad day away from joining its peers. Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[World] Flashback: Biden's July Fourth message drastically different than year ago President Joe Biden will spend Independence Day staring down arguably his toughest challenge since entering the White House. Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[Entertainment] Nordstrom 4th of July 2022 Deals: Score Up to 80% Off Free People, Good American, Tory Burch & More Ecomm, Nordstrom 4th of JulyWe independently selected these products because we love them, and we hope you do too at these prices. Shop with E! has affiliate relationships, so we may get a commission if you purchase...
Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[Gear] The Surface Laptop Go 2 Offers Style on a Budget Microsoft’s updated midrange model is a top-tier student pick and cheaper MacBook alternative, but its battery leaves much to be desired. Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[Politics] [Josh Blackman] Today in Supreme Court History: July 4, 1776 7/4/1776: Declaration of Independence is signed.     Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[Markets] Von Greyerz: This Implosion Will Be Fast... Hold On To Your Seats Von Greyerz: This Implosion Will Be Fast... Hold On To Your Seats

Authored by Egon von Greyerz via GoldSwitzerland.com,

The massive money creation in the 2000s has led to a debt and asset bubble, which is about to burst. Investors will be shocked by the speed of the decline and won’t react before it is too late.

The massive money creation by central and commercial banks in this century has resulted in a growth of global assets from $450 trillion in 2000 to $1,540 trillion in 2020.

DEBT TO GDP GROWTH

As the chart below shows US debt to GDP held well below 25% from 1790 to the 1930s, a period of almost 150 years. The depression with the New Deal followed by WWII pushed debt to GDP up to 125%. Then after the war, the debt  came down to around 30% in the early 1970s.

The closing of the gold window in 1971 ended all fiscal and monetary discipline. Since then, the US and much of the Western world has seen debt to GDP surge to well over 100%. In the US, Public Debt to GDP is now 125%. Back in 2000 it was only 54% but since then we have seen a vote buying system with a money printing bonanza and an exponential increase in debt to 125%.

A major part of the debt increase has gone to finance the rapid growth in property values.

The table below shows that property has grown on average by 250% between 2000 and 2020. So individuals are creating wealth by swapping properties with each other. Hardly a sustainable form of wealth creation.

The exponential growth in property prices has been global although countries like China, Canada, Australia and Sweden stand out with over 200% gains since 2000. Most of the properties bought in the last 20+ years involve massive leverage. When the property bubble soon bursts, many property owners will have negative equity and could easily lose their homes.

So both private and government debt is continuing to grow rapidly. But nobody should believe that it will stop here. The Fed’s intention to reduce the balance sheet is not working and the debt is at best going sideways currently.

BIDEN BANS RUSSIAN GOLD

So it is happening again. The US has decided to ban imports of Russian gold and told the whole G7 to follow suit. President Biden sent the following Tweet last week:

So what will the consequences be?

Russia is the second biggest gold producer in the world after China. Just like  with oil, gas and many other commodities, the effect will be higher gold prices over time. The gold trade is international and the major buyers of gold are China and India. So Russia can continue to sell gold to the Far East, the middle East and South America.

Also, when the EU sanctions started, the LBMA (London Bullion Market Association) decided not to accept gold that had been refined in Russia. 

So the effect of the G7 ban will be minimal since gold deliveries from Russian refiners to the bullion banks already stopped in early March.

SANCTIONS ARE COUNTER PRODUCTIVE

Biden also signed an executive order on 15 March this year, prohibiting US persons to be involved with gold trading with Russian parties.

Still, more sanctions by the US and Europe will over time create shortages in gold just as it has in other commodities. So Russia will be able to sell its commodities including gold to other markets at higher prices.

But since Russia by far has the greatest commodity reserves in the world at $75 trillion, the value of these reserves are going to appreciate for years as we are now at the beginning of a major bull market in commodities.

The US and EU sanctions of Russia affect around 15% of the world population so there are still plenty of markets where Russia can trade.

The Roman Empire controlled parts of Europe, North Africa and the Middle East. The Empire prospered primarily due to free trade within the whole area with no sanctions. Sanctions hurt all parties involved. And since Russia is such a major commodity country that can continue to trade with major nations, they will over time suffer less than the sanctioning countries.

The consequences of these sanctions especially for Europe where many countries are dependent on Russian oil and gas will be totally devastating. So the US and Europe have really shot themselves in the foot.

GOLD, THE US DOLLAR & STOCK MARKETS

Coming back to gold, the US and G7 move is more likely to have a beneficial effect on gold over time with demand increasing and supply being restricted.

Gold started an uptrend in year 2001 that lasted for 10 years to 2011 when gold reached $1,920. After a major correction for 3 years until 2016, to $1,060, gold has resumed its exponential uptrend as can be seen in the chart below.

Although gold has not yet made sustained new highs in dollars, we have seen much higher highs in gold against most currencies. The temporarily strong dollar is making gold look weak measured in the US currency but that is unlikely to last for long.

MAJOR GOLD MOVE COMING

As the chart below shows, gold is finishing a Cup and Handle technical pattern. It does allow for a slightly lower price before the next move up although that is not certain. Regardless, the major trend for gold is substantial and I expect a sustained move up to at least 2026 but probably for much longer. Obviously there will be major corrections on the way.

DOLLAR FALL NEXT

If we look at the chart of the dollar against the Swiss franc since 1970, we can see that the 78% fall so far has gone sideways for 10 years.

The next move down is likely to be another 50% to 0.45-0.50 at least.

So the feeble and temporary dollar correction up is likely to end soon with a strong down move next.

MAJOR STOCK MARKET FALL AHEAD

Stocks globally are down around 20% this year.

The next move down in stocks could happen within the next few weeks. This is likely be a shocking move which will paralyse investors as they won’t have time to react.

So we could see stocks and dollar strongly down at the same time with the metals up. Even if gold and silver comes down initially, that move will not last. The uptrend in the metals is soon about to resume.

Wealth preservation

Our company made substantial purchases of physical gold at the beginning of 2002 for our investors and ourselves.  The price was then $300. We have never sold an ounce since then but added at opportune moments.

There was, as the gold chart above shows, a major move until 2011 and then a vicious 3 year correction to $1,060 before the bull trend resumed. As I mentioned above, gold has made much higher highs above the 2011-12 highs in Euros, Pounds,Yen, Swedish kronor, Australian dollars etc.

US dollar highs are just around the corner.

As we bought gold for wealth preservation purposes, it was essential that it was physical with direct ownership and control for the investor. To be able to inspect your own gold is also a requirement. 

It is also imperative to store the gold outside an increasingly fragile financial system. If you buy gold as insurance against such an over-leveraged and weak system, it obviously serves no purpose to store it within that system.

To store your insurance asset in a safe jurisdiction is clearly critical. Especially with the current geopolitical unrest it is essential to take advice on location. Also important is to be able to move the gold quickly if necessary.

The reputation and values of the company that assists you with your gold investments must be impeccable.

It serves no purpose to make your choice based on the lowest cost of storage, insurance and handling when you are protecting one of your most important assets. 

BE CAREFUL

So there are likely to be major moves in markets next.

No one can of course time these moves exactly. But what is critical to understand is that risk is now extremely high and investors are not going to be saved by central banks.

And remember that fire insurance can only be bought before the fire starts!

Tyler Durden Mon, 07/04/2022 - 07:10
Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[topics:in-the-news/cost-of-living] Go-slow fuel protesters block motorways across Britain bringing rush hour chaos Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[] The Morning Report — 7/4/22 Good morning, kids. The Fourth of July is here. All things considered, on the one hand it's hard for me to wish you a happy Fourth but to not do so would be to accept the enemy's memes and hatred... Published:7/4/2022 6:23:47 AM
[] Ilhan Omar dances on a stage sponsored by a 'greedy' corporation that's an enemy of The Squad Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[Entertainment] What's Not to Love About Cameron Diaz and Her Iconic Rom-Coms Cameron Diazs romcoms, The MaskThere is something about Cameron Diaz. Especially now that she's coming out of retirement! Though the actress stopped acting eight (!!) years ago in 2014, she's finally coming...
Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[Uncategorized] “The Nightmare Scenario SCOTUS is Plotting For the 2024 Election Takeover” – Fear Mongering Over Upcoming Moore v. Harper Case

Lefty Radio Host Thom Hartmann: "Six Republicans on the Supreme Court just announced — a story that has largely flown under the nation’s political radar — that they’ll consider pre-rigging the presidential election of 2024."

The post “The Nightmare Scenario SCOTUS is Plotting For the 2024 Election Takeover” – Fear Mongering Over Upcoming Moore v. Harper Case first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[Politics] A new message of hope & unity for this July 4th — Through it all, the American Dream endures Our forebears were willing to risk everything for a dream. A dream of freedom and of opportunity. A dream that says no matter where you come from you can succeed. This is the American Dream. Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[] Sunday Overnight Open Thread (7/3/22) Not Much Content Edition *** The Comments of The Week Comment I Comment II Comment III Comment IV... Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[Markets] 'Reset' This! 'Reset' This!

Authored by Michael Walsh via AmericanMind.org,

The following is an excerpt from Michael Walsh’s forthcoming book, Against the Great Reset: Eighteen Theses Contra the New World Order, which will be published by Bombardier Books and be available October 18, 2022. Walsh has gathered a series of essays from among eighteen of the most eminent thinkers, writers, and journalists—including the American Mind’s own James Poulos, as well as Claremont Senior Fellows Michael Anton and the late Angelo Codevilla—to provide the first major salvo in the intellectual resistance to the sweeping restructuring of the western world by globalist elites.”

Part I: The Problem

What is the Great Reset and why should we care? In the midst of a tumultuous medical-societal breakdown, likely engineered by the Chinese Communist Party and abetted by America’s National Institutes of Health “gain of function” financial assistance to the Wuhan Institute of Virology, why is the Swiss-based World Economic Forum (WEF) advocating a complete “re-imagining” of the Western world’s social, economic, and moral structures? And why now? What are its aspirations, prescriptions, and proscriptions, and how will it prospectively affect us? It’s a question that the men and women of the WEF are hoping you won’t ask.

This book seeks to supply the answers. It has ample historical precedents, from Demosthenes’s fulminations against Philip II of Macedon (Alexander’s father), Cicero’s Philippics denouncing Mark Antony, the heretic-hunting Tertullian’s Adversus Marcionem¸ and the philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche’s Nietzsche contra Wagner. Weighty historical issues are often best debated promptly, when something can yet be done about them; in the meantime, historians of the future can at least understand the issues as the participants themselves saw and experienced them. Whether the formerly free world of the Western democracies will succumb to the paternalistic totalitarianism of the oligarchical Resetters remains to be seen. But this is our attempt to stop it.

So great is mankind’s perpetual dissatisfaction with its present circumstances, whatever they may be, that the urge to make the world anew is as old as recorded history. Eve fell under the Serpent’s spell, and with the plucking of an apple, sought to improve her life in the Garden of Eden by becoming, in Milton’s words, “as Gods, Knowing both Good and Evil as they know.” The forbidden fruit was a gift she shared with Adam; how well that turned out has been the history of the human race ever since. High aspirations, disastrous results.

The expulsion from the Garden, however, has not discouraged others from trying. Indeed, the entire chronicle of Western civilization is best regarded as a never-ending and ineluctable struggle for cultural and political superiority, most often expressed militarily (since that is how humans generally decide matters) but extending to all things both spiritual and physical. Dissatisfaction with the status quo may not be universal—timeless and static Asian cultures, such as China’s, have had it imposed upon them by external Western forces, including the British and the Marxist-Leninists—but it has been a hallmark of the occident and its steady civilizational churn that dates back at least to Homer, Plato, Aeschylus, Herodotus, Pericles, and Alexander the Great, with whom Western history properly begins.

The philosopher Friedrich Nietzsche, assaying the inelegant Koine, or demotic, Greek of the New Testament in Beyond Good and Evil, observed: “Es ist eine Feinheit, daß Gott griechisch lernte, als er Schriftsteller werden wollte—und daß er es nicht besser lernte”: “It’s a particular refinement that God learned Greek when he wanted to become a writer—and that he didn’t learn it better.” Nietzsche, the preacher’s son who became through sheer willpower a dedicated atheist, was poking fun at the fundamentalist belief that the Christian scriptures were the literal words of God himself (Muslims, of course, believe the same thing about the Koran, except more so). If something as elemental, as essential to Western thought as the authenticity of the Bible, not to mention God’s linguistic ability, could be questioned and even mocked, then everything was on the table—including, in Nietzsche’s case, God Himself.

With the death of God—or of a god—Nietzsche sought liberation from the moral jiu-jitsu of Jesus: that weakness was strength; that victimhood was noble; that renunciation—of love, sex, power, ambition—was the highest form of attainment. That Nietzsche’s rejection of God was accompanied by his rejection of Richard Wagner, whose music dramas are based on the moral elevation of rejection, is not coincidental; the great figures of the nineteenth century, including Darwin and Marx, all born within a few years of each other, were not only revolutionaries, but embodied within themselves antithetical forces that somehow evolved into great Hegelian syntheses of human striving with which we still grapple today.

Wagner, the Schopenhauerian atheist who staggered back to Christianity and the anti-Semite who engaged the Jew Hermann Levi as the only man who could conduct his final ode to Christian transfiguration, Parsifal. Charles Darwin, ticketed for an Anglican parsonage but mutating into the author of On the Origin of Species, The Descent of Man, and all the way to The Formation of Vegetable Mould through the Action of Worms. Karl Marx, the scion of rabbis whose father converted to Lutheranism and, like Wagner for a time, a stateless rebel who preached that the withering away of the state itself was “inevitable”—and yet the state endures, however battered it may be at the moment.

It’s fitting that the “Great Reset of capitalism” is the brainchild of the WEF, which hosts an annual conference in the Alpine village of Davos—the site of the tuberculosis sanatorium to which the naïf Hans Castorp reports at the beginning of Thomas Mann’s masterpiece, The Magic Mountain. Planning to visit a sick cousin for three weeks, he ends up staying for seven years, “progressing” from healthy individual to patient himself as his perception of time slows and nearly stops. Castorp’s personal purgatory ends only when he rouses himself to leave—his Bildungsreise complete—upon the outbreak of World War I, in which we assume he will meet the death, random and senseless, that he has been so studiously avoiding yet simultaneously courting at the Berghof.

Central Europe, it seems, is where the internal contradictions of Western civilization are both born and, like Martin Luther at Eisleben, go home to die. And this is where the latest synthetic attempt to replace God with his conqueror, Man, has emerged: in the village of Davos, in the canton of Graubünden, Switzerland: the site of the annual meeting of the WEF led by the German-born engineer and economist Klaus Schwab, born in Ravensburg in 1938, the year before Hitler and Stalin began carving up Poland and the Baltics.

Once more into the breach, then: behold the present volume. In commissioning sixteen of the best, most persuasive, and most potent thinkers and writers from around the world to contribute to our joint venture, my principal concern has been to offer multiple analyses of the WEF’s nostrums and in so doing to go poet Wallace Stevens’s “Thirteen Ways of Looking at a Blackbird” a few better. Then again, given the surname of the WEF’s chief, perhaps a better, more potent literary citation might be Margret’s little ditty from the Büchner/Alban Berg expressionist opera, Wozzeck (1925): In’s Schwabenland, da mag ich nit—”I don’t want to go to Schwab-land.” Nor, as Hans Castorp’s journey illustrates, should anyone wish to visit Davos-land if he prizes his freedom, his possessions, and his sanity. To the Great Resetters, we are all ill, all future patients-in-waiting, all in dire need of a drastic corrective regimen to cure what ails us.

In these pages, we shall examine the Great Reset from the top down. The eminent American historian Victor Davis Hanson begins our survey with “The Great Regression,” locating Schwab’s vision within its proper historical context. He is followed by Canada’s Conrad Black and America’s Michael Anton and their views of capitalism and socialism, with not a few attacks on conventional, osmotic wisdom that will both surprise and enthrall. Britain’s Martin Hutchinson outlines the contours of the Reset’s “Anti-Industrial Revolution,” even as the American economist David Goldman confronts both Schwab’s notion of the “Fourth Industrial Revolution” and China’s immanentizing its eschaton in real time, along with the Red Dragon’s commitment to the upending of Western civilization and its own Sino-forming of a post-Western world.

American writer, editor, and publisher Roger Kimball tackles the implications of a neofascist Reset in his essay, “Sovereignty and the Nation-State,” both of which concepts are under attack in the name of “equality,” its totalitarian successor “equity,” and the political consequences of our re-embrace of Rousseauvian concepts as applied to governments. British historian Jeremy Black discusses the misuses toward which the study of history has been and will be put to by the Resetters. The late Angelo Codevilla contributes what alas became his final essay, “Resetting the Educational Reset,” to sound the tocsin about the dangerous left turn of the once-vaunted American educational system, now reduced to a shrill, sinistral shell of its former dispassionate glory.

From Down Under, the Philippines-born Richard Fernandez twins two eternally competing faiths, religion and science; the American-born, Australian-based political sociologist Salvatore Babones contributes a remarkably clear explication of the kinds of transportation feasible under the “green energy” regimen the Reset seeks to impose upon us, and its practical and social implications. Writing from Milan, Alberto Mingardi, the director-general of the Istituto Bruno Leoni, gets to the heart of the Great Reset’s deceptive economic program with an essay concerning faux-capitalist “stakeholder capitalism” and its surreptitious replacement of shareholder capitalism in the name of “social justice.”

The Great Reset, however, is not strictly limited to matters financial, pecuniary, or macroeconomic. Social and cultural spheres are of equal importance. James Poulos looks at the Reset’s unholy relationship with the predatory Big Tech companies that currently abrogate the First Amendment by acting as governmental censors without actually being commanded by an act of Congress or, increasingly, an arbitrary presidential mandate. From British Columbia, noted Canadian author and academic Janice Fiamengo weighs in on the destructive effects of feminism upon our shared Western culture while, on the lighter side, Harry Stein examines the history of American humor—which in effect means worldwide humor—and how the leftist takeover of our shared laugh tracks has resulted in a stern, Stalinist view of what is and what is not allowed to be funny.

The British writer Douglas Murray has a go at the permissible future of Realpolitik under the panopticonic supervision of the Reset, the Chinese Communist Party, and the Covid hysterics, while the American journalist John Tierney lays out the road to civilizational serfdom that the unwarranted panic over the Covid-19 “pandemic” has triggered during its media-fueled run between 2019 and 2022. My contribution, in addition to this Introduction, is an examination of the Reset’s—and, historically, elitist tyranny’s—deleterious effects on Western culture: the very thing that gave birth to our notions of morality and freedom.

At its heart, the Great Reset is a conceited and self-loathing central-European blitzkrieg against the cultural, intellectual, religious, artistic, physical, and, most of all, moral inheritance we have received from our Greco-Roman forebears. This has been latterly shorthanded, with the rise of “wokeness,” to “white” culture. Typically racialist, if not outright racist, the cultural Marxists behind wokeness insist on reducing humanity to its shades of skin color and then claiming that although all skin colors should achieve in exact same proportions to their share in a given population, some skin colors are better than others and any skin color is preferable to white. It’s a deeply repellent principle that masquerades as a perversion of Judeo-Christianity but is in fact a simultaneous attack on individuality and merit that seeks to roll back the scientific and cultural advances of the past two millennia, wielding both science and culture as weapons against our shared technological and moral heritage.

The goal, as always, is power—the eternal fixation of the socialist Left…

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/03/2022 - 23:45
Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[World] Last of the Greatest

On this Independence Day, remembering the life of an American hero: Hershel Woodrow "Woody" Williams (1923-2022).

The post Last of the Greatest appeared first on The American Conservative.

Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[America] Happy Fourth of July — The Declaration of Independence Annotated The Declaration of Independence was published by the Second Continental Congress on this day in 1776.  Their audiences were the American colonists, to justify our call to arms, and Britain’s enemies, to assure them of our intent. Thomas Jefferson’s preamble, with his famous proclamation that all people are equal before Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[GLOP.PA] GasLog Partners: Higher Distributions May Only Be Less Than A Month Away Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[Entertainment] What to watch on Monday: ‘America the Beautiful’ airs on Disney Plus Monday, July 4, 2022 | Multiple Fourth of July celebrations air. Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[Commentary] US Immigration Crisis Due to Climate Change: DHS Secretary Mayorkas Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas said Sunday that the immigration crisis at the southern border is not unique to the U.S., and that southern countries are also seeing a massive influx of migrants due to the global economic downturn and climate change. Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[9ec78dba-8baa-50f6-9117-b9536efae108] On July 4th, I celebrate my remarkable journey which is only possible in America My country, the United States of America, gave me the opportunity to go from a childhood of poverty to serving South Carolina as a U.S. senator. Where else is that possible? Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[94341456-cac9-544f-8200-ce473f5621dc] Tom Cruise Turns 60: How he conquered Hollywood and won over the royal family Hollywood legend Tom Cruise turns 60 July 3. Royal insider Neil Sean shares stories about how Cruise won over Hollywood and became a royal family favorite. Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[Markets] The New York Post: $300,000 raised for Burger King employee who never missed work in 27 years and got mediocre gift Kevin Ford, 54, has toiled as a cashier and cook at the chain’s McCarran International Airport location since 1995.
Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[topics:things/climate-change] Monday morning UK news briefing: Boris Johnson faces Cabinet backlash over Chris Pincher allegations Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[Opinion] Why Celebrate The Fourth Of July?

by Charles N. Steele at CDN -

July 4 is the anniversary of the Declaration of Independence and the founding of America as a new country in 1776. Today, 246 years later, for many it’s just a fun three-day weekend — a time of cookouts and fireworks. Or maybe, for some who focus on slavery or other …

Click to read the rest HERE-> Why Celebrate The Fourth Of July? first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:7/4/2022 2:00:37 AM
[f49ea1db-a675-5726-bdb6-5aca456eaf90] Jhené Aiko is pregnant and 'overjoyed' to be expecting first child with rapper boyfriend Big Sean Jhené Aiko is pregnant with her first child with longtime boyfriend Big Sean. She is also mom to a 13-year-old daughter from a previous relationship. Published:7/3/2022 7:01:04 PM
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Published:7/3/2022 7:01:04 PM
[Markets] The Economic Growth That Never Was The Economic Growth That Never Was

Authored by Tuomas Malinen via The Epoch Times,

In March 2019, we published an ominous special report, entitled: Why the global growth model is broken. In it, we explained a troubling phenomenon: productivity growth in the world economy had stalled in 2011 and started to decline.

We first noticed this in September 2017, and the situation has remained the same ever since. We named the period as the “Great Stagnation.”

A figure presenting the growth of total factor productivity (TFP) in the regions of the world from 1990 to 2021. (GnS Economics, Conference Board)

The total factor productivity, or TFP, presented in the figure above measures the share of GDP growth that cannot be accounted for by capital investment (in equipment and machinery) and the quantity and the improved quality of the labor force (skills and training). Effectively, TFP is the “unexplained” element of economic growth.

Solow Model of Economic Growth (1956) first suggested that one can find the value of TFP by collecting data from observed factors for capital, labor, and economic growth, and then, by applying some basic statistical estimation techniques to the growth model, calculate TFP, or “Solow Residual” as the remainder. It was also discovered that a large part of GDP growth was explained by technological innovations rather than purely by capital and labor, which the “residual” or TFP represented (see, e.g., our blog for more info).

In the December 2020 forecasting report, we postulated the perplexing problem of stagnated productivity growth as: “Stagnating global productivity growth is extremely worrying, because it implies that if firms are unable to increase their productivity, they will be unprofitable as well. And when their indebtedness grows yet profitability stagnates or falls, their ability to service debt will also diminish over time.”

And we continued: “Decreasing productivity growth thus implies that the ability to increase profitability and service debt has diminished for several years—at the same we have become ever more indebted! Global debt is expected to reach an astonishing $277 trillion U.S. dollars, or around 350 percent of global GDP by the end of the year.”

How did we end up here?

It turns out—or we consider it the most plausible explanation—that the continuous monetary and fiscal stimulus by central banks and governments has destroyed or seriously damaged two main forces behind economic growth: creative destruction and the risk-and-reward relationship.

Long-term economic growth is driven by technical innovations, which increase productivity. What this means is that innovations, from the spinning-jenny (practically a first actual industrial machine) to industrial robots (and beyond), grow the productivity of a human worker. This also increases his or her wage and makes products cheaper. This process, i.e., the growth of productivity, is behind the spectacular rise in living standards since the 18th century.

However, this process assumes a crucial element dubbed as creative destruction due to its dual nature. It implies, simply, that more efficient (more productive) methods will replace the old and inefficient. This requires that old firms fail (go bankrupt) and new firms take their place. This process is at the heart of the capitalist market economy.

Both gains and failures in the private sector drive economic progress. The former accumulates income and capital, while the latter uncovers sustainable businesses, setting the stage for creative destruction. Government plays an important role by setting laws, governing human and property rights, and guaranteeing income through social security, but it is, ultimately, the private sector and markets that drive progress. Do not let the MMT (Modern Monetary Theory) crowd tell you otherwise! As socialist market economy experiments have recurrently shown throughout history, this risk-and-reward relationship is essential for this creative destruction to work and for the economy to grow, dynamically.

The reason that our economies have grown, relatively decently, after the Panic of 2008, is presented in the figure below.

A figure presenting the ratios of debt to gross domestic product between main sectors of the economy in advanced countries from 1990 Q4 to 2021 Q3. (GnS Economics, BIS)

It shows especially that government debt has grown quite a bit faster than GDP since 2008 in advanced (rich) economies. Without the massive growth of government debt, the world economy would not have grown at this speed. We have been in constant resuscitation since 2008!

This has also made our economies fragile. Currently, they tend to succumb without constant support or at least when there are efforts to withdraw it. I have explained in my previous column why central banks have been forced to bail out the global economy and markets several times during the past five years. Now, with the aggressive rate hikes and balance sheet run-off (QT) of the Federal Reserve, we are fast approaching another breaking point, which is likely to require a full-scale bailout of the world economy.

The European Central Bank is way ahead of the Fed. They are already planning an anti-fragmentation tool for the eurozone. In it, they plan to support the sovereign debt markets of the weakest members of the eurozone. Socialization of Europe is proceeding fast.

There are also rumors of an another, considerably large “bailout” fund of the EU in the making. Just two years ago, EU members agreed on a 750 billion euro Recovery Fund.

Back in 2020, Dr. Peter Nyberg, a retired director general of the Financial Markets Department at the Finnish Ministry of Finance, and I warned about the Stealth Federalization of the EU. The sovereignty of EU member states had been eroding slowly, but with the Recovery Fund, it took a massive leap forward. Another such a common-debt-scheme would effectively seal our fate.

Alas, we have lived in a “mirage” of an economic recovery since the Great Financial Crisis. Our leaders on both sides of the Atlantic have not allowed the normal economic process, especially bankruptcies and failures, to clean our economies from unproductive, “parasitic” activities, over-indebtedness, and (zombified) companies.

This is why our economies are so weak, and this is why we are heading either to a complete socialization of the world economy or an epic economic collapse. We, the people, have let our political leaders to “sleepwalk” us into this cataclysmic watershed. Now would be an excellent time to wake up.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/03/2022 - 19:45
Published:7/3/2022 7:01:04 PM
[Markets] Weekend Sip: Review: We tried the crab-flavored whiskey that’s gone viral Tamworth Distilling, an innovative New Hampshire producer of spirits, is behind the Crab Trapper bourbon infused with invasive green crabs
Published:7/3/2022 7:01:04 PM
[Lysychansk (Ukraine)] Lysychansk, Ukraine’s Last Outpost in Luhansk, Falls to Russia Lysychansk managed to hold out for a week after its twin city, Sievierodonetsk, was captured. But on Sunday a pro-Russian flag flew there, as well. Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[Land Surface Air Temperature Data] June In Tokyo, Hachijojima Island Hasn’t Warmed In Decades While the mean daily maximum temperature for Hachijojima has risen modestly over the past 115 years, Tokyo has seen an almost 2°C linear trend increase. Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[Political Cartoons] Happy Dependence Day

by A.F. Branco at CDN -

Biden needs a card from his bosses to tell him what to do and where to do it. Happy 4th of July Independence Day. Political cartoon by A.F. Branco ©2022

Click to read the rest HERE-> Happy Dependence Day first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[Entertainment] Adele Says She Wants to Have More Children Adele, 73 QuestionsAdele is looking forward to having more little loves. The "Someone Like You" singer--who shares 9-year-old son Angelo with ex-husband Simon Konecki--revealed she hopes to expand...
Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[Politics] Pray for America’s children this Independence Day, because THIS is what they’re being taught The future of the United States is at greater peril than it has ever faced, and we had to fight a war to exist and another to continue to exist. But what . . . Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[2022 Election] Pincer Movement to Dump Biden Taking Shape (Steven Hayward) It’s pretty clear that the left is organizing to dump Joe Biden when it becomes evident that he’s a certain loser in 2024. Rather that waiting for a Ted Kennedy-like figure to challenge him in the 2024 primaries, which would likely doom Democrats to certain defeat, the left will need to push him out early, and clear the calendar for one or more Democrats to organize a serious presidential campaign. Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[Executive Power] [Ilya Somin] Supreme Court Ruling in "Remain in Mexico" Case is a Win for Biden, Migrants - and Fans of Presidential Power The ruling likely allows end of a cruel policy - but also reinforces broad presidential control over immigration. Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[Markets] Monday's July 4 holiday means banks, markets and federal offices are closed Monday's July 4 holiday means banks, markets and federal offices are closed Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[] PHOTO: Oregon National Guard helicopter makes unbelievable landing on Mt. Hood to rescue injured hiker Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[Uncategorized] July 3, 1776: John Adams Boasts About Independence to Abigail Adams

Adams: Future Americans must celebrate Independence Day "with Pomp and Parade, with Shews, Games, Sports, Guns, Bells, Bonfires and Illuminations from one End of this Continent to the other from this Time forward forever more."

The post July 3, 1776: John Adams Boasts About Independence to Abigail Adams first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[Markets] : Mark Zuckerberg issues dire economic warning to Meta employees Zuckerberg's chilling message to Meta Platforms Inc. employees: The company faces one of the "worst downturns that we've seen in recent history" that will necessitate a scaling back in hires and resources.
Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall: Don't Feed The Bear; BYD Leaves Tesla In The Dust Don't feed the bear market, prepare for the next bull run. Tesla deliveries fell sharply in Q2 with BYD on tap. Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[] Chinese state media trolls Biden over demand that gas stations lower prices Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
[Markets] Understanding The Economic Crisis In Sri Lanka Understanding The Economic Crisis In Sri Lanka

Sri Lanka is currently in an economic and political crisis of mass proportions, recently culminating in a default on its debt payments. The country is also nearly at empty on their foreign currency reserves, decreasing the ability to purchase imports and driving up domestic prices for goods.

As Visual Capitalist's Avery Koop details below, there are several reasons for this crisis and the economic turmoil has sparked mass protests and violence across the country. This visual breaks down some of the elements that led to Sri Lanka’s current situation.

A Timeline of Events

The ongoing problems in Sri Lanka have bubbled up after years of economic mismanagement. Here’s a brief timeline looking at just some of the recent factors.

2009

In 2009, a decades-long civil war in the country ended and the government’s focus turned inward towards domestic production. However, a stress on local production and sales, instead of exports, increased the reliance on foreign goods.

2019

Unprompted cuts were introduced on income tax in 2019, leading to significant losses in government revenue, draining an already cash-strapped country.

2020

The COVID-19 pandemic hit the world causing border closures globally and stifling one of Sri Lanka’s most lucrative industries. Prior to the pandemic, in 2018, tourism contributed nearly 5% of the country’s GDP and generated over 388,000 jobs. In 2020, tourism’s share of GDP had dropped to 0.8%, with over 40,000 jobs lost to that point.

2021

Recently, the Sri Lankan government introduced a ban on foreign-made chemical fertilizers. The ban was meant to counter the depletion of the country’s foreign currency reserves.

However, with only local, organic fertilizers available to farmers, a massive crop failure occurred and Sri Lankans were subsequently forced to rely even more heavily on imports, further depleting reserves.

April 2022

In early April this year, massive protests calling for President Gotabaya Rajapaksa’s resignation, sparked in Sri Lanka’s capital city, Colombo.

May 2022

In May, pro-government supporters brutally attacked protesters. Subsequently, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa, brother of President Rajapaksa, stepped down and was replaced with former PM, Ranil Wickremesinghe.

June 2022

Recently, the government approved a four-day work week to allow citizens an extra day to grow food, as prices continue to shoot up. Food inflation increased over 57% in May.

Additionally, the increasing prices on grain caused by the war in Ukraine and rising fuel prices globally have played into an already dire situation in Sri Lanka.

The Key Information

“Our economy has completely collapsed.”

- PRIME MINISTER RANIL WICKREMESINGHE TO PARLIAMENT LAST WEEK.

One of the main causes of the economic crisis in Sri Lanka is the reliance on imports and the amount spent on them. Let’s take a look at the numbers:

  • 2021 total imports = $20.6 billion USD

  • 2022 total imports (to March) = $5.7 billion USD

In contrast, the most recent reported foreign currency reserve levels in the country were at an abysmal $50 million, having plummeted an astounding 99%, from $7.6 billion in 2019.

Some of the top imports in 2021, according to the country’s central bank were:

  • Refined petroleum = $2.8 billion

  • Textiles = $3.1 billion

  • Chemical products = $1.1 billion

  • Food & beverage = $1.7 billion

Of course, without the cash to purchase these goods from abroad, Sri Lankans face an increasingly drastic situation.

Additionally, the debt Sri Lanka has incurred is huge, further hampering their ability to boost their reserves. Recently, they defaulted on a $78 million loan from international creditors, and in total, they’ve borrowed $50.7 billion.

The largest source of their debt is by far due to market borrowings, followed closely by loans taken from the Asian Development Bank, China, and Japan, among others.

What it Means

Sri Lanka is home to more than 22 million people who are rapidly losing the ability to purchase everyday goods. Consumer inflation reached 39% at the end of May.

Due to power outages meant to save energy and fuel, schools are currently shuttered and children have nowhere to go during the day. Protesters calling for the president’s resignation have been camped in the capital for months, facing tear gas from police and backlash from president Rajapaksa’s supporters, but many have also responded violently to pushback.

India and China have agreed to send help to the country and the the International Monetary Fund recently arrived in the country to discuss a bailout. Additionally, the government has sent ministers to Russia to discuss a deal for discounted oil imports.

A Foreshadowing for Low Income Countries

Governments need foreign currency in order to purchase goods from abroad. Without the ability to purchase or borrow foreign currency, the Sri Lankan government cannot buy desperately needed imports, including food staples and fuel, causing domestic prices to rise.

Furthermore, defaults on loan payments discourage foreign direct investment and devalue the national currency, making future borrowing more difficult.

What’s happening in Sri Lanka may be an ominous preview of what’s to come in other low and middle-income countries, as the risk of debt distress continues to rise globally.

The Debt Service Suspension Initiative (DSSI) was implemented by G20 countries, suspending nearly $13 billion in debt from the start of the pandemic until late 2021.

Some DSSI and LIC countries facing a high risk of debt distress include Zambia, Ethiopia, and Tajikistan, to name a few.

Going forward, Sri Lanka’s next steps in managing this situation will either serve as a useful exam for other countries at risk or a warning worth heeding.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/03/2022 - 19:05
Published:7/3/2022 6:10:06 PM
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[Markets] Home Price Cuts, Rising Inventories Are Ominous Signs Of Top Home Price Cuts, Rising Inventories Are Ominous Signs Of Top

The pandemic housing boom hit a peak and should start rolling over as rising inventory forces some home sellers to slash prices. The weight of soaring mortgage rates and increasing inventory are the possible markings of a top that has already led some sellers in major US cities to cut listing prices. 

"The housing market is absolutely in need of a reset," George Ratiu, senior economist at Realtor.com, told Bloomberg

Realtor.com's data showed almost a third of listings in June had price cuts in Austin, Phoenix, and Las Vegas metro areas. Price cuts are a growing national trend as higher rates triggered an affordability crisis, removing millions of new prospective home buyers. 

Bloomberg spoke with Naples, Florida, real estate agent Jennifer DeFrancesco who advised her clients to drop listing prices as she believes the flood of demand from the Northeast has eased. 

Carolyn Young, a broker associate with Christie's International Real Estate Sereno in the San Francisco Bay Area, said demand for homes in a 55-and-over community in Brentwood had seen dramatic declines since many retirees were battered by awful performance in their stock and bond portfolios in the first half. She advised clients at Trilogy at the Vineyards to lower their listings by $50,000 to $100,000 because of faltering demand. 

"For sellers, it's devastating, especially if they bought something else earlier and paid too much for that," Young said.

Price cutting comes as a flood of inventory enters a very tight market. Another Realtor.com report this week showed the number of active US listings soared 18.7% in June from a year earlier.

Danielle Hale, the chief economist for Realtor.com, said, "We anticipated that more inventory will eventually cool the feverish pace of competition." The rise in inventory was more profound in Austin, Texas; Phoenix, Arizona; and Raleigh, North Carolina, which saw active listings more than double from a year ago. In Nashville, Tennessee, active listings jumped 86%, and 72% in Riverside, California. 

Mortgage applications and pending home sales are down, which suggests the jump in the 30-year fixed-loan mortgage rate from 3% to over 6% this year (back in March, we warned coming rate explosion would trigger a housing affordability crisis) is quickly cooling the market. Next, we should first see price declines in areas that were red hot during the early days of the pandemic.

It's only a matter of time before the Case-Shiller (newly minted S&P CoreLogic CS) home price index data turns. 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/03/2022 - 15:25
Published:7/3/2022 2:45:37 PM
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[Markets] NY Governor To Require 3 Years Of Social Media History To Obtain Concealed Carry Permit NY Governor To Require 3 Years Of Social Media History To Obtain Concealed Carry Permit

Within an hour of the US Supreme Court striking down a law which required New York residents to show "proper cause" to obtain a concealed carry license, Governor Kathy Hochul (D) promised legislation to counter the ruling.

To that end, Hochul on Friday signed sweeping gun legislation into law that adds several layers of red tape for those who wish to obtain a gun in the state - including a new rule requiring anyone applying for a concealed carry permit to submit a three-year history of their current and inactive social media accounts. The new law will take effect on September 1, 2022.

Applicants for concealed carry permits must also undergo 16 hours of firearm training, provide four character references, and list the contact information for domestic partners or adults who reside in the same house.

More via the Post Millennial:

Potential applicants will also be required to show "good moral character," meaning "the essential character, temperament and judgment necessary to be entrusted with a weapon and to use it only in a manner that does not endanger oneself and others."

At a press conference regarding the new legislation, Hochul said "we are creating a definitive list of sensitive locations where individuals will not be able to carry firearms."

This list includes "schools, summer camps, libraries, daycares, parks and playgrounds, places children gather, theaters, museums, entertainment venues, places of worship for religious observation, polling places, educational institutions, and health medical facilities. Federal State Local government buildings, homeless and domestic violence shelters, places where alcohol is consumed, restaurants, bars, public transportation, subway buses, airports and at public demonstrations and rallies, and in Times Square."

Another new rule is a "Default of No Concealed Carry on Private Property and Businesses Unless Deemed Permissible by Property Owners." Hochul said of this law, "We are making 'no open carry' the default position for private businesses. That means that any business, grocery store, retail, private home, place that wants to allow guns on their premises will have to demonstrate that and establish that they put a sign out there that says concealed carry guns are welcome here."

*  *  *

One day after the June 23 ruling in New York State Rifle and Pistol Association v. Bruen, both Hochul and NYC Mayor Eric Adams vowed to enact legislation that would work around the USSC ruling.

"Our state will continue to keep New Yorkers safe from harm even despite this setback from the Supreme Court," Hochul said on Friday.

In reaction, the state GOP said "the legislation not only violated the Second Amendment, but also privacy and free speech rights," according to the Associated Press. The lawmakers were reportedly "incensed" and predicted that the new rules would be struck down.

As Jonathan Turley further notes;

One of the most questionable elements is the requirement that gun owners show “good moral character.” That obviously raises comparisons to the invalid Sullivan Act of 1911, giving local officials discretion over who can carry concealed guns based on a showing of “proper cause.”  The Court rejected the notion that citizens must prove their need to use an individual right as opposed to the government shouldering the countervailing burden:

“We know of no other constitutional right that an individual may exercise only after demonstrating to government officers some special need. That is not how the First Amendment works when it comes to unpopular speech or the free exercise of religion. It is not how the Sixth Amendment works when it comes to a defendant’s right to confront the witnesses against him. And it is not how the Second Amendment works when it comes to public carry for self-defense.

New York’s proper-cause requirement violates the Fourteenth Amendment in that it prevents law-abiding citizens with ordinary self-defense needs from exercising their right to keep and bear arms.”

Under the New York law, applicants must undergo “enhanced screening” with in-person interviews and submit to reviews of their social media, including required access to social media. That provision seems ripe for challenge on a host of grounds, including the denial of free speech and associations rights.

The law seems another overreach by the state. As I noted earlier, New York has thus far been about as effective in curtailing gun rights as Monty Python’s “Judean People’s Front Crack Suicide Squad” was effective in combating Roman occupation.

After all, who needs Texas when gun rights advocates have New York?

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/03/2022 - 14:50
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[Markets] Oil Price Could Hit "Stratospheric" $380 If Russia Retaliates To G7 Oil Price Cap Oil Price Could Hit "Stratospheric" $380 If Russia Retaliates To G7 Oil Price Cap

As discussed previously, one of the most notable events of the past week was the decision by G7 leaders "to work" on a price cap for Russian oil as part of efforts to cut Moscow’s revenues.

However, it didn't take long for the same G7 motley crew to realize that they have a major problem on their hands: as JPM's commodity desk notes, given Russia’s strong fiscal position, the country can cut up to 5 mbd of production without excessively hurting its economic interest. Meanwhile, a 5mbd cut would spark a Europe-wide depression, confirming that once again Europe had not even done the simple math.

What about prices? According to JPM, given the high levels of stress in the oil market, a cut of 3.0 mbd could cause global Brent price to jump to $190/bbl, while the most extreme scenario of a 5 mbd slash in production could drive oil price to a stratospheric $380/bbl.

Let's back up: as we noted last week, the stated goal set out by G7 leaders this week is two-pronged:

  1. to limit upward pressure on global oil prices
  2. to curb Russia’s revenues from oil sales.

To achieve those goals, the allies agreed to explore a new mechanism that aims to impose a ceiling on Russian oil prices. The idea behind this price cap is to permit countries that have not imposed import bans to buy Russian oil as long as it is priced at or below a predetermined price. The cap could be enforced via limits on availability of European insurance for Russian oil cargoes as well as shipping services and US finance. While G7 leaders have not indicated where the price cap would be set, it must be lower than the $80/bbl at which Russia’s Urals grade trades today (a $32/bbl discount to Brent) and higher than Russia’s marginal cost of maintaining production levels, estimated at around $40/bbl to ensure Russia’s earnings are reduced while production is maintained.

A $50-60 per barrel price cap would likely serve the G7 goals of reducing oil revenues for Russia while assuring barrels continue to flow. Of course, for the price cap to work, oil importers like India China and Turkey—which have significantly increased their purchases of heavily- discounted Russian grades—would need to agree to participate to access even cheaper oil.

That's the background. Here are the 3 scenarios as to what happens next. They are, as one would expect from any plan conceived by hapless politicians, bad, worse and much worse.

Scenario 1: Russia does not cooperate and retaliates — a 3 mbd cut would likely deliver a $190/bbl oil price

The most obvious and likely risk with a price cap is that Russia would not to participate (which, of course, it won't as why would Putin agree to produce oil at a lower price than clearing) and instead retaliates by reducing exports. In fact, as JPM head commodity strategist Natasha Kaneva notes, Russia had already showed its willingness to withhold supplies of natural gas to EU countries that refused to meet payment demands. Indeed, emboldened by a surging current account surplus, after entirely cutting off the flow of piped gas to the Netherlands, Bulgaria, Finland and Denmark, since the start of June Gazprom has reduced the flow of gas to Italy by 50% and to Germany by 60%—though claiming the latter reductions in June were due to maintenance-related issues.

As a result, the EU as a whole is now receiving 53% less gas from Russia than it averaged before the start of the war. Withholding gas volumes from Europe comes at a personal cost to Russia—as a measure to manage the reduced export-related flows, Russia has had to allow for natural production declines. According to Gazprom, the company will reduce its production by 17 Bcm this year, or 3% of 2021 production. That said, history suggests that there is far more capability for production reductions in Russia. For example, in 2019 Gazprom production was ~500 Bcm, while in 2020 Gazprom production fell to ~453 Bcm. So far in 2022, Gazprom production has been down 20 Bcm yoy, suggesting further declines are likely relative to Gazprom’s current forecast.

Unlike gas, which accounts for about one-fifth of Russia’s budget revenues, oil makes up over half. Russia’s policymakers will likely address the challenge of the oil price cap from the position of strength, and as JPM concedes, "Russia’s starting fiscal position is strong." Besides, the global oil market has tightened, while the strong balance of payments opens room to accommodate lower export volumes without inflicting too much financing pain. Which brings up the key question: How much oil production can Russia realistically cut without hurting its economic interest?

In answering this question, JPM notes that Russia's fiscal position strong: low deficit, low debt.

Russia’s sovereign balance sheet remains strong even as half of CBR’s reserves were frozen. Last year, Russia’s federal budget recorded a modest surplus of 0.4% of GDP or $7bn, while this year, as things stand, is tracking a modest deficit of less than 1% of GDP. Financing needs are equally low. The National Wellbeing Fund—effectively, a government deposit at the CBR—reached an equivalent of $198bn by May 2022, with $116bn in usable funds. Treasury cash balances exceed ~$85bn. Gross sovereign debt stood at 15.9% of GDP (~$279bn) as of end-2021.

Federal budget revenues, originally budgeted at RUB25tn ($347bn), are tracking about RUB26tn this year ($394bn) as higher oil & gas revenues more than offset the shortfall in non-energy fiscal revenues. If fiscal rule was still operational, Russia would  accumulate around $80bn into the sovereign fund this year. Yet, as following the old fiscal rule has become challenging, the authorities decided to use additional oil & gas revenues to increase spending and reduce issuance instead. A new fiscal rule is being debated in the government.

So let's assume the G7 plan is effectuated and a hypothetical $50/bbl price cap on Russian oil was imposed and effective, Russia could lose about $75bn per year in export revenues and about $42bn in budget revenues compared to JPM's base case of an average annual price of around $80/bbl. The impact on budget balance would be smaller, as exchange rate would offset part of the impact.

JPM concludes that the Kremlin would not face big problem financing a deficit of ~$40bn given the large stock of savings and low initial level of debt. The local financial system should be able to absorb additional issuance, especially given the scarcity of available instruments for savings outside of Russia. For example, in 2020, the government raised an equivalent of 4.8% of GDP ($71bn) from the local market.

However, as JPM's commodity team also notes, the Russian government will likely retaliate by cutting output as a way to inflict pain on the West, especially since the tightness of the global oil market is on Russia’s side, the continued appreciation pressure on the exchange rate would ease, and the strong public finances could absorb the revenue losses without too much difficulty.

As a hypothetical scenario, a cut of 3 mbd from JPM's base case of 9.7mbd output assumed for this year could open up a deficit of $50bn at a $50/bbl price, which could be relatively easily funded by issuing local bonds without stressing the oil fund. Importantly, the imbalance in Russia’s external accounts, which generates excessive inflows of hard currency to the local market, might, ironically, even be considered as a relief.

Then there is the question of too much USDs and EURs to stomach. Russia’s key macro-economic challenge following the imposition of sanctions has been the unsustainable dynamics of the balance of payments, which has resulted in significant appreciation of the exchange rate. Main sanctions-induced developments were the following:

  • First, sanctions against the central bank made it close-to-impossible for the CBR to accumulate reserves. Last year, the CBR accumulated $64bn in reserves, while this year, if the fiscal rule was still operational and domestic crude price averaged ~ $80/bbl (at a big discount to Brent), the CBR would have had to purchase more than $75bn. Today, the CBR is only able to buy gold from local producers (small scale). Policymakers study the feasibility of buying assets of friendly EM countries, but infrastructure constraints, closed capital accounts, and lack of depth of EM markets will likely make the rollout of EM-buying slow and lacking scale in the near term.
  • Second, sanctions and, more importantly, risks of further financial sanctions (asset freezes) have made residents reluctant to accumulate foreign assets in ‘unfriendly’ countries. In the past, accumulation of foreign assets was traditionally the main channel of private capital outflows, averaging ~$80bn in the past 10 years. This has largely dried up now.
  • Third, trade and logistical restrictions have dramatically affected imports, which, judging by indirect data, halved. Given the strong oil revenues, Russia's 2022 current account surplus to reach ~$170bn this year ($68bn in 1Q22).

The higher current account surplus and the lack of private and public sector capital outflows has meant that the RUB has been the main adjustment valve. This has made Russia’s non-energy exports expensive and uncompetitive. Policymakers have focused their efforts on reviving imports, by stimulating domestic demand and addressing logistical challenges and the CBR has cut policy rate aggressively, while fiscal authorities are contemplating a stimulus of 2-3% of GDP. Obviously, given the nature of sanctions / trade restrictions, reviving imports, especially of investment-related goods, will be hard.

In addition, most of capital controls that were introduced at the height of the crisis have been removed. Also, a couple of quasi-sovereign institutions have had to accumulate foreign assets in recent months, but this is not seen as sustainable or desirable due to sanctions risk. As Russian officials often put it, USDs and EURs have become “toxic”.

Although authorities’ preference would be to increase imports and recycle petrorubles in friendly EMs, this does not look an easy task, especially in the near term. Hence, if the geopolitical situation requires, it now appears more likely that export cuts could be used as leverage / policy tool.

Putting it all together, JPM concludes that "given the high level of stress in the oil market, a cut of 3.0 mbd could cause global Brent price to jump to $190/bbl, while the worst-case scenario, a 5 mbd cut, could drive oil price to a stratospheric $380/bbl."

* * *

Russia would be able to cut 3 mbd of production, if done temporarily

If Russia decides to make significant cuts to its output, JPM warns that there do not appear to be significant limitations to doing so if done temporarily. In general, halting oil production carries serious risks, depending on how long oil production reductions are needed. Prolonged cutbacks in specific Russian regions could potentially lead to some permanent shut-ins due to operational challenges across an industry with little storage capacity and natural geological constraints in a large number of maturing fields. Currently, Russia has more than 200 thousand active wells that are capital and labor intensive to operate, especially the country’s older wells, which have meager flow rates and poor economics. For some wells, the longer a reservoir remains idled, the higher the chance pressure, water content, and clogging could affect future production. For example, West Siberia—an oil producing region in central Russia that contributes more than half of Russia’s total crude output—is facing permafrost melting and rising associated water levels. A prolonged, large-scale shut-in would mean closing tens of thousands of marginal wells, many of which could never return to profit. For example, following the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russian crude oil production reached a record low of about 6.0 mbd in 1996, down from a record high of 11.4 mbd in 1987. Only after more than two decades of strong capital investment, equating to hundreds of billions of dollars, was Russia able to restore its crude oil production capacity.

The nearly 2.0 mbd decline in Russia crude oil production in May 2020—or around a fifth of its total output—was the first time since early 1990s that Russia experienced a double-digit collapse in the oil ouput. But despite the unprecedented magnitude and speed of the 2020 cuts— Russia shut in 1.94 mbd of oil production in just one month between April and May 2020—fears that future Russian oil production would be compromised didn’t materialize. As OPEC+ tapered its cuts over the following year and a half, there does not seem to be any indication that Russian oil fields had issues restoring output. Because the Russia-Ukraine war and the resulting sanctions on Russian oil supplies started before Russia had fully restored output—in March 2022, fields where Russia shut in production during 2020 were still producing about 350 kbd less than they were in January 2020—one cannot be certain that those fields would have returned to full output without issue, but the recovery in those fields leading up to April 2022 appears to have been relatively stable with few exceptions. Since there do not seem to have been significant issues in this circumstance, with oil fields at least partially shut in for nearly two years, JPM does not think that, if Russia decided to once again cut output, their ability to restore production would be a significant barrier to doing so, especially if those cuts were only expected to last a few months. Rotating shut-ins between fields or among wells within fields can also help limit the risk of reservoir issues. Simply throttling wells instead of shutting them entirely can also mitigate some of those risks.

Additionally, Russia has tools outside its domestic production to interfere in the global oil supply. About 80% (~1 mbd) of Kazakhstan’s crude exports are shipped from the Caspian Pipeline Consortium terminal in the Black Sea port of Novorossiysk, controlled by Russia. Most of this crude goes to the EU. In Libya, political unrest continues to escalate, and fighting is at levels not seen since 2020, when General Khalifa Haftar, supported by the Russia-linked Wagner Group led his forces to take Tripoli. Libya’s oil production is now likely below 400 kbd after Libya’s National Oil Corp. announced on Thursday that it has declared force majeure on two of its three largest oil export terminals this week, while two other major oil export ports have not shipped any oil in months.

2.  Scenario 2: China and India don’t cooperate—the end of the European insurance dominance

History shows that oil sanctions are notoriously leaky, and sanctioned oil supplies almost always find a buyer at the right price, and China and India might not cooperate with the goals of Western governments. The state-run Shipping Corporation of India has in the past carried Iranian oil for state-run Indian refiners when the West first sanctioned Iran in 2012. The Indian government has previously approved coverage from state-run insurers, setting a precedent that it could do so again in the future, should the need arise. Similarly, China’s COSCO vessels have in the past transported Iranian oil in 2013 with Iran commenting that insurance was handled by the “Chinese side.” Similarly, Japan had also guaranteed up to $1 billion of insurance claims for Iranian shipments made in 2012.

Russia and some buyers have already found alternatives to European insurance markets, effectively circumventing European cargo insurance bans. While Russia initially struggled to find a replacement for Western consumers of its oil products and has had to shut in refining capacity, Russian crude oil has not only found new buyers, but waterborne flows of Russian crude are actually higher than they were before the Ukraine crisis. Not only are Russian crude oil deliveries resilient, but there are signs that shipments of bottom-of-barrel oil products like fuel oil are beginning to recover as well (Exhibits 6 & 7). The reality is that with almost 1/5 of global oil production capacity today under some form of sanctions (Iran, Venezuela, Russia), there is no practical way to keep these barrels out of a market that is already exceptionally tight.

The state-controlled Russian National Reinsurance Company (RNRC) is now acting as the main reinsurer of Russian ships, including Sovcomflot’s fleet. In mid-June, Sovcomflot disclosed that it has insured all its cargo ships with Russian insurers and the cover meets international rules, likely enough to keep Russian vessels sailing around the world. To guarantee RNRC has adequate resources to provide reinsurance, Russia’s central bank in March raised RNRC’s capitalization to 300 bn rubles ($5 bn) and hiked its guaranteed capital to 750 billion rubles.

India is also providing safety certification for ships operated by Sovcomflot, enabling oil exports to India and elsewhere. Certification by the Indian Register of Shipping (IRClass)—one of the world’s top classification companies—is the final link after the insurance coverage for gaining access to ports. Chinese insurers are also apparently looking to take on business that was previously covered by their Western counterparts, but they would likely require a sovereign guarantee, which China would provide.

Scenario 3: Russia fully re-routes exports from west to east but loses pricing power, prices stabilize in low-$100s

Left to their own devices, JPMorgan strategist write that energy markets tend to work very efficiently and effectively, and the market adjustment mechanism has kicked in. Record oil product prices and rapidly tightening central banks are cooling consumption so that supply can catch up. In the US, a lackluster driving season so far pushed gasoline demand further below pre-pandemic norm, contributing to an unseasonal build in national stockpiles. As the EU gradually but unequivocally transitions away from Russian energy sources, Russia will continue to re-route its discounted oil flows toward other buyers and global ex-OPEC+ supply growth would have time to grow sufficiently to fill at least some of the Russia-sized hole in global oil supply. US production growth will likely be very strong (especially once the Democrats lose the midterm elections), adding more than 0.7 mbd through the end of 2022, though that growth is expected to halt in 1H 2023 as natural gas infrastructure constraints in the Permian Basin place a temporary cap on oil output. These conditions should be sufficient to stabilize global oil prices in low-$100s in 2H22 and high-$90s in 2023. Because JPM expects global refinery margins to normalize in 2023 and for refined products prices to fall from current levels, a sustained $100/bbl crude oil price, though still substantially higher than it has been since 2014, should be low enough allow demand to continue to grow. This process of normalization is already under way and is especially visible in other commodities like metals, where there is less policy intervention.

Consequently, Russian revenues from crude oil exports have declined.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/03/2022 - 14:15
Published:7/3/2022 1:44:59 PM
[Opinion] A Red Tsunami Is Barreling Towards Democrats

by Ronna McDaniel at CDN -

It’s official: We’ve passed the halfway-point of the midterm primary season. With 28 states’ candidates decided, we’re getting a sense of what Republicans can expect on Nov. 8th. And so far, it’s looking promising. On Tuesday, a trend we have seen play out across the country continued: Republicans outpaced Democrats …

Click to read the rest HERE-> A Red Tsunami Is Barreling Towards Democrats first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:7/3/2022 1:44:59 PM
[] First-World Problems... Woe is me! There are two crises that are overwhelming the normally even-tempered and staid denizens of Chez Dildo. Yeah; that is one of the string of sort-of-Edison-bulbs hanging over the patio. But this one is directly above the grill,... Published:7/3/2022 1:44:59 PM
[flooding] Coldest, Wettest & Stormiest – The Good Old Days Before Global Warming Many will be aware that the coldest winter on record in the US was that of 1978/79, more than 1F colder than any other year. Published:7/3/2022 12:43:02 PM
[World] [Josh Blackman] SCOTUS Eliminates the Lemon Defense, and Smokes Joints With Play A revolution in Establishment Clause jurisprudence from three Free Exercise and Free Speech cases. Published:7/3/2022 12:43:02 PM
[057baf04-87f6-5836-8362-41bd69e14903] NSC spox Kirby responds to Bezos accusation of WH inflation ‘misdirection’ NSC official John Kirby reacted after Jeff Bezos accused the White House of "misdirection or a deep misunderstanding of basic market dynamics" when it comes to inflation. Published:7/3/2022 12:43:02 PM
[Markets] Several Hit By Gunfire At Copenhagen Mall, Police Say  Several Hit By Gunfire At Copenhagen Mall, Police Say 

Update (1322ET): DW News and Sky News both report one person has been arrested at the Field's shopping mall in the capital of Copenhagen after a shooting inside the mall left several injured. 

* * * 

Copenhagen Police said gunshots were reported at the Fields shopping center in the capital of Copenhagen on Sunday evening. 

"We are still present, shots have been fired and several people have been hit. We work on-site. People in the Fields must stay and await the police," Copenhagen Police tweeted.

Sky News now reporting the incident. 

Here's an alleged video from within the shopping mall at the time of the incident. 

People were seen fleeing the mall. 

Danish radio said heavily armed police have arrived on the scene as well as ambulances. 

There are no official reports of how many people may have been killed or wounded.

*Developing 

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/03/2022 - 13:16
Published:7/3/2022 12:43:02 PM
[Markets] : Believe it or not, gas prices have been edging down this Fourth of July — here’s why National gas price averages have been dropping since mid-June, AAA data says
Published:7/3/2022 12:43:02 PM
[Quick Takes] Firms Handling Assets of Wealthiest Universities Reportedly Lack Diversity

"Duke University, which fully participated by sharing its asset management rosters with researchers, has 32.1 percent of assets in the hands of diverse firms."

The post Firms Handling Assets of Wealthiest Universities Reportedly Lack Diversity first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:7/3/2022 12:43:01 PM
[Middle Column] Don’t be a Restaurant menu denier! Atlantic Mag claims ‘You Can Spot Climate Change in Old Restaurant Menus’

Atlantic Mag presents evidence of climate change: In the 1880s, Vancouver’s seafood joints served lots of salmon. These days they serve squid.

In a new study, a team from the University of British Columbia (UBC) shows one unexpected way that climate effects are already manifesting in our daily lives. To find it, they looked not at thermometers or ice cores, but at restaurant menus. ... The team gathered menus from hundreds of restaurants around the city, as well as from restaurants farther afield in Anchorage, Alaska, and Los Angeles, California

Published:7/3/2022 12:43:01 PM
[Comedy] LGBTQ A [delicious sandwich] containing Lettuce, [guacamole], bacon,tomato, and [quantum physics].
Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Politics] [Josh Blackman] Today in Supreme Court History: July 3, 1941 7/3/1941: Chief Justice Harlan Fiske Stone takes oath. Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Entertainment] Adele says ‘brutal’ backlash followed cancellation of Las Vegas residency "I was a shell of a person for a couple of months," the singer, who performed in London over the weekend, told the BBC. Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[AMLP] 7 Reasons We Love Midstream Oil And Gas Stocks Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Gear] The Best Webcams for Looking Brighter and Better Zoom into peoples' offices and living rooms with the best version of your on-camera self. Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Alarmism] Aussie ‘Ambassador for Women’ claims ‘climate change’ causes rape! ‘Exacerbates the risks of sexual & gender-based violence’ As we confront the climate crisis, women and girls’ human rights, must be at the center of our collective efforts. Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Politics] 'Join us in California': Newsom running a reelection ad — in Florida

California Gov. Gavin Newsom targets DeSantis, Trump and Florida's policies in a campaign ad running in that state, and invites Floridians to the West Coast.

Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Sunday Funnies] Sunday Funnies

The post Sunday Funnies appeared first on Flopping Aces.

Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[] 'Urgency is a White Supremacy Value' Says Oregon Health Bureaucrat Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: EV Giant BYD Races Past Tesla Deliveries; Don't Feed The Bear Don't feed the bear market, prepare for the next bull run. Tesla deliveries fell sharply in Q2 with BYD on tap. Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[topics:places/london] Watch: Silent vigil held in Ilford to ‘bring home’ Zara Aleena Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[] City of Orlando dumps on the 4th of July, then tries to walk it back Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Middle Column] Media Matters calls Morano a ‘notorious climate denier…a staple of Fox News’ pro-fossil fuels & anti-climate programming’
Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Uncategorized] Post-SCOTUS Decision Polls Still Show Biden, Congressional Dems in Trouble Ahead of Midterm Elections

"46% of voters plan to vote for the Republican congressional candidate on the ballot while 43% plan to support the Democratic congressional candidate. [...] In a hypothetical 2024 matchup between President Biden and former President Trump, Trump holds 44% support while Biden has 39% support."

The post Post-SCOTUS Decision Polls Still Show Biden, Congressional Dems in Trouble Ahead of Midterm Elections first appeared on Le·gal In·sur·rec·tion.
Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Entertainment] Ricky Martin Denies Allegations After Domestic Abuse Restraining Order Filed Ricky MartinA temporary domestic abuse restraining order has been filed against Ricky Martin in Puerto Rico, while the singer is denying the allegations laid out in it. A police spokesperson told the...
Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Climate] Green Fanaticism In the Netherlands (John Hinderaker) It isn’t just the U.S.: around the world “green” fanatics are destroying livelihoods and dragging down standards of living. This instance comes from the Netherlands: “Dutch farmers protest livestock cuts to curb nitrogen.” In one of their largest-ever demonstrations, the farmers demanded the scrapping of recently announced plans by the Hague-based government, which could see a 30 percent reduction in livestock. The Netherlands, the world’s second-largest agricultural exporter… I was Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[cf579358-546e-5657-b2ac-0a1a2148c268] Liz Cheney says not prosecuting Trump 'graver threat' than the difficulties it poses Rep. Liz Cheney said not prosecuting former President Donald Trump would be a grave threat despite how difficult such a prosecution would be for the country. Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Political Cartoons] A Hobbling of Unelected Bureaucrats

by Michael Ramirez at CDN -

See more Ramirez (@Ramireztoons) HERE.

Click to read the rest HERE-> A Hobbling of Unelected Bureaucrats first posted at Conservative Daily News

Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Politics] WATCH: Dutch farmers spray manure, flood streets, blockade police, RISE UP against insane “green” policies There’s a farmer uprising in the Netherlands. The gov’t has been doing to them what AOC wants to do here. They are enacting preposterous restrictions to keep up with the global liberal . . . Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[Markets] IEA: Global Nuclear Capacity Needs To Double To Meet Net-Zero Goals IEA: Global Nuclear Capacity Needs To Double To Meet Net-Zero Goals

Via OilPrice.com,

  • The IEA is calling for the world to boost nuclear capacity.

  • The agency says global nuclear capacity needs to double over the next three decades to reach net-zero goals.

  • An IEA official also noted that the energy crisis has presented a unique opportunity for a nuclear revival.

Nuclear power capacity needs to double worldwide over the next three decades to reach net-zero carbon emissions targets to ensure energy independence, argued the International Energy Agency (IEA).

The Paris-based group’s executive director Fatih Birol outlined that nuclear has a unique opportunity for a revival in the context of the global energy crisis, skyrocketing fossil fuel prices, energy security challenges, and climate commitments.

However, he suggested this was not guaranteed, and instead depended on government policy geared toward greater expansion.

Birol said: “It will depend on governments putting in place robust policies to ensure safe and sustainable operation of nuclear plants for years to come.”

In the group’s latest report, Nuclear Power and Secure Energy Transitions, the IEA revealed nuclear power has to be significantly ramped up to meet the twin aims of supply security and net zero carbon emissions.

It has warned that to reach net-zero emissions, nuclear power capacity has to increase to 812 gigawatts (GW) by 2050 from its current 413 GW total.

While advanced economies operate nearly 70 percent of global nuclear capacity, the IEA noted nuclear fleets across the West were aging, amid stalled investment and over-budget projects.

The IEA calculates that around 260 GW, or 63 percent, of nuclear plants in the world, are currently over 30 years old and nearing the end of their initial operation licenses.

In the 2030s, annual additions of nuclear power capacity needed to reach 27 GW just to offset closed-down power plants – which could shrink by a third over the coming decade in developed economies.

For context, the UK’s ‘big new’ bet on nuclear, which represents a historic boost in nuclear power generation, is an increase from 7GW to 24GW over the next three decades.

Hinkley Point C is expected to open within the next five years, with the Government looking to secure public funding for Sizewell C – as it targets the greenlighting of eight new reactors by 2030.

Tyler Durden Sun, 07/03/2022 - 12:50
Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
[] The Boot-Licking Lackeys In The Media Are Finally Realizing That They Are Pawns! Not really, because they are 100% behind the anti-freedom, economy-crushing policies of the Biden junta. They just want to be respected; they want the Kalorama Kidz to continue the charade that the media have autonomy and aren't simply lickspittle servants... Published:7/3/2022 12:14:34 PM
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