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Soiled...
Video Shows ISIS Blowing Up Iraq's Tomb of Jonah...













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Published:7/25/2014 11:54:43 AM
[24ebb02345d67410VgnVCM100000d7c1a8c0RCRD] Mystery still surrounds the whereabouts of Casey Kasem’s remains More than a month after Casey’s Kasem’s June 15 death, the family feud over the famous radio personality still continues, and the whereabouts of his body are unknown. Published:7/25/2014 11:54:43 AM
[World] Looting at crash scene...
Tycoon Slim calls for three-day work week...Would congratulate healthy choices...APPLE faces legal threat over 'free' apps... CASEY KASEM'S BODY GOES MISSING...
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Published:7/19/2014 4:46:55 AM
[97fd5b86bca47410VgnVCM100000d7c1a8c0RCRD] Casey Kasem's body missing, report says Casey Kasem's daughter is claiming that a month after the passing of her father, he's yet to be buried. Published:7/18/2014 2:54:17 PM
[World] YEARS IN THE MAKING...
CASEY KASEM DEAD...Netanyahu Blames Hamas in Seizure of Israeli Teenagers...Disappeared without a trace...Hillary's Book tour from Hell...Drudge, Karl Rove Planting 'False Information'...Interactive test claims life expectancy; Based on stress levels, diet and lifestyle...Poachers kill one of world's largest elephants in Kenya...REPORT: Released Taliban prisoners have personal masseur, luxury living...Pope Francis ditches bulletproof Popemobile...'At my age I don't have much to lose'... DRAMA: Supreme Court has 17 cases to decide by month's end...BIPARTISAN: Cantor Says Immigration Views Angered People in Both Parties...Brazil takes vacation time to new level for World Cup... Prostitutes play football match on sidelines...FIFA to probe flying drone above France camp...Kuwait top court jails activist over insulting emir...Tell-all book reveals backstage secrets of Jay Leno show's 22-year run... LeBron James is comfortable, win or lose...Wise move?Jets to Palm Springs For Golf...Australia Sees 'Plan' as All Talk, No Action...

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Published:6/15/2014 10:47:23 AM
[Music] Casey Kasem dies at 82; tributes pour in
Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars. We’ll miss you, Casey. pic.twitter.com/cxYhONfrqz

Legendary radio disc jockey Casey Kasem, who invented the top-40 countdown and served as the longtime voice of Shaggy on the children’s cartoon “Scooby Doo,” died Sunday at age 82. Almost immediately as the news broke, tributes started to pour in, including this emotional one from his daughter, Kerri Kasem:

Read full article >>






Published:6/15/2014 10:47:23 AM
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Published:6/12/2014 11:35:01 AM
[World] EX-BORDER AGENTS: IMMIGRANT FLOOD 'ORCHESTRATED'...
Another Hillary gaffe at Chicago appearance...Computers will be like humans by 2029...IMF sounds global housing alarm...

Warns world must act to contain risk of another crash...
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Judge rules Casey Kasem to be taken off feeding and fluid tubes...STUDY: High protein diet significantly reduces risk of stroke...Camp of 5,000 squatters springs up in Sao Paulo...









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Published:6/11/2014 4:53:35 PM
[World] British Records for Abortions of Down's Syndrome Babies Missing

A new investigation by the British government has found that hundreds of Down's Syndrome babies aborted by British clinics have disappeared from records, supposedly due to poor administration.

The investigation found that British clinic doctors have broken the law by not keeping proper records. Perhaps as many as half the aborted Down's Syndrome babies were not properly recorded.

Saying that "the bulk of terminations" in Britain occur to eliminate Down's Syndrome babies, The Daily Mail goes on to report abortions are being misidentified as "social abortions."

The Mail reports that, "The investigation, published on the Department of Health website, shows that in 2012 a total of 994 babies were aborted for Down’s Syndrome, according to the independent National Down’s Syndrome Cytogenetic Register."

But the investigation found that the department of Health only recorded 496 cases, "meaning that 498 cases were classed as missing."

The reason this is known is that Down's Syndrome pregnancies are reported separately to the government and government officials have correlated the reporting.

Under the Abortion Act, termination of a baby with Down’s Syndrome is legal right up to the point of delivery. Such terminations are hugely controversial because due to medical advances, children with Down’s can now expect to live until their fifties and sixties. Tory MP Fiona Bruce, chairman of the recent independent parliamentary inquiry into abortion for disability, said it was clear doctors had broken the law.

The paper goes on to report that the Department of Health has made no effort to make sure that this law is enforced.

"We now know that nearly half of abortions for Down’s Syndrome were incorrectly recorded. How many doctors were referred for investigation? None," MP Bruce said.

"It was horrifying to read that 11 Down’s Syndrome abortions post 24 weeks do not even appear in the official dataset," Professor Joan Morris, director of the NDSCR, said.

Critics of aborting babies with Down's Syndrome charge that such abortions are only a matter of convenience, not necessity.

"The abortion isn’t for the sake of the child; it’s for the sake of the parent. They don’t want an inconvenient child, a baby who may require them to work a little harder than they planned," Casey Fiano of Life Site News wrote in October of 2013.

Follow Warner Todd Huston on Twitter @warnerthuston or email the author at igcolonel@hotmail.com








Published:6/9/2014 3:09:41 AM
[Markets] Stocks to Watch: Stocks to Watch: Layne Christensen, Ferrellgas, Casey’s Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Monday’s session are Layne Christensen, Ferrellgas Partners and Casey’s General Stores.
Published:6/9/2014 12:02:42 AM
[Markets] Stocks to watch Monday: Layne Christensen, Ferrellgas, Casey's Stocks to watch Monday: Layne Christensen, Ferrellgas, Casey's Published:6/8/2014 7:16:53 AM
[Recession] There Is No Tradeoff Between Inflation And Unemployment

Submitted by Chris Casey of The Ludwig von Mises Institute,

Anyone reading the regular Federal Open Market Committee press releases can easily envision Chairman Yellen and the Federal Reserve team at the economic controls, carefully adjusting the economy’s price level and employment numbers. The dashboard of macroeconomic data is vigilantly monitored while the monetary switches, accelerators, and other devices are constantly tweaked, all in order to “foster maximum employment and price stability." The Federal Reserve believes increasing the money supply spurs economic growth, and that such growth, if too strong, will in turn cause price inflation. But if the monetary expansion slows, economic growth may stall and unemployment will rise. So the dilemma can only be solved with a constant iterative process: monetary growth is continuously adjusted until a delicate balance exists between price inflation and unemployment. This faulty reasoning finds its empirical justification in the Phillips curve. Like many Keynesian artifacts, its legacy governs policy long after it has been rendered defunct.

In 1958, New Zealand economist William Phillips wrote The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. The paper described an apparent inverse relationship between unemployment and increases in wage levels. The thesis was expanded in 1960 by Paul Samuelson in substituting wage levels with price levels. The level of price inflation and unemployment were thereafter linked as opposing forces: increasing one decreases the other, and vice versa. The US data from 1948 through 1960 comparing the year-over-year increases in the average price level with the average annual unemployment rate seemed irrefutable:

 

The first dent in the Phillips curve came from Chicago-School economist Milton Friedman (as well as, independently, Edmund Phelps) who suggested it was more temporary than timeless, more illusion than illustration. Friedman’s “fooling model” posited that price inflation fooled workers into accepting employment at “higher” wage rates despite lower real rates as measured after the impact of price inflation. Once they realized the difference between “real” and “nominal” wages (the fools!), they would demand higher nominal rates as compensation. As inflation rose, unemployment declined, but only temporarily until a new equilibrium was achieved. This simple insight created quite a stir and troubled noted econo-sadist Paul Krugman: “when I was in grad school, I remember lunchtime conversations that went something like this; ‘I just don’t buy the ... stuff — it’s not remotely realistic.’ ‘But these people have been right so far, how can you be sure they aren’t right now?’"

The Friedman criticism was somewhat clever, but unnecessary, minor, and misguided, for cold data was far more damaging than Chicago doctrine. The Phillips curve not only evaporated with the 1970s, but reversed to show a positive correlation between price inflation and unemployment:

In light of this, like many Keynesian concepts, the Phillips curve should have been forever abandoned when the 1970s proved high price inflation and unemployment rates can coexist. But now the Phillips curve is back from the dead. Krugman, writing in 2013, introduced new data demonstrating the Phillips curve’s “resurrection.” According to Krugman: How many economists realize that the data since around 1985 — that is, since the Reagan-Volcker disinflation — actually look a lot like an old-fashioned Phillips curve?

This Krugman comment is correct, US data from 1985 through 2013 again shows an inverse correlation between the year-over-year increases in the average price level with the average annual unemployment rate:

Has the Phillips curve, as Krugman suggests, regained its former acceptance? Since 1985, why has its inverse relationship between price inflation and unemployment reappeared? The question is irrelevant: the fact that it had previously disappeared forever strips the Phillips curve of legitimacy.

Any apparent correlation between two variables may be coincidental and unrelated, directly casual, or linked by a third variable or sets of variables. For price inflation and unemployment, the last explanation is the correct one. Price inflation and unemployment are not opposing forces, but in large part effects deriving from the same causation — the expansion of the money supply.

More money cheapens its value and the price of goods and services accordingly rise in terms of money — hence price inflation. More money lowers interest rates which induce malinvestments (including the hiring of workers) which (who) are eventually liquidated (terminated) in a recession — hence unemployment. While both phenomena largely share a common origin, the timing of their manifestations may be quite different and heavily dependent upon other variables, including fiscal policy.

The death of the Phillips curve will eventually be served not from Chicago School gimmicks, not from the experience of the 1970s, but from greater acceptance of the Austrian School’s explanations of price inflation and business cycles. Unfortunately, in the interim, the monetary policies promoted by the Phillips curve have moved from 1970s lunchtime academic discussion to official government policy. In the hands of the Federal Reserve, the Phillips curve becomes weaponized Keynesianism.

Due to its unjustified acceptance of the Phillips curve and its related misconceptions about price inflation and business cycles, the Federal Reserve will never be able to trade higher price inflation for lower unemployment. Nor can it sacrifice higher unemployment for lower price inflation. But it can, and likely will, generate high levels of both. If the Federal Reserve’s economic controls appear broken, it is because they never really worked in the first place.








Published:6/7/2014 10:09:32 AM
[World] The ACA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) presents employers and potential employees with a variety of new rewards and penalties. However, University of Chicago researcher Casey B. Mulligan suggests that these rewards and penalties have effects beyond what the law intended, including on the incentive to work. Mulligan’s new research shows that the ACA will put millions of workers in the economically extreme situation of having zero short-term financial reward (or less) to working full-time rather than part-time.

Published:6/4/2014 6:52:37 AM
[World] Bergdahl: 'I am ashamed to be an American'...
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Called N Word By Group Of Assailants...
LEGAL CHALLENGES LIKELY...Pentagon wrestles with false climate predictions as military funds shifted to green agenda...QUAKE KNOCKS WESTWOOD...MAP...Aznavour dazzles London at 90...Reports scuppered wiretapping efforts...4 Major News Networks, Zero Bilderberg Coverage...Casey Kasem Hospitalized After Dramatic Scene Unfolds at Home...






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Published:6/1/2014 10:19:58 PM
[5dde9b17b8b26410VgnVCM100000d7c1a8c0RCRD] Casey Kasem's wife served with guardianship papers The wife of ailing radio personality Casey Kasem was served Friday with a California court order that temporarily suspends her powers to determine her husband's medical care amid concerns about his health and welfare. Published:5/24/2014 12:26:39 AM
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Published:5/15/2014 7:23:57 AM
[Music] Police find Casey Kasem after his daughter files missing persons report

Missing radio personality Casey Kasem was found in Washington Wednesday, according to an exclusive report by the New York Daily News.

Kerri Kasem, Kasem’s daughter, filed a missing persons report with the Santa Monica police department Wednesday. Said the Daily News:

Read full article >>






Published:5/15/2014 1:34:07 AM
[Comedy] American Voices: Casey Kasem Missing A judge has ordered an investigation into the whereabouts of Casey Kasem, the 82-year-old radio personality known for his years of hosting the nationally syndicated American Top 40 countdown show, who has gone missing from his Los Angeles home.






Published:5/13/2014 5:25:32 PM
[8bc8316d8d1f5410VgnVCM100000d7c1a8c0RCRD] Casey Kasem's whereabouts unknown: Investigator ordered to track down ailing radio host A judge has appointed one of Casey Kasem's daughters as his temporary conservator after expressing concerns about the safety and whereabouts of the ailing radio personality. Published:5/12/2014 11:35:49 AM
[World] Value Add: Wright, McDermott Hold Onto Top Spots

It appears Utah's Delon Wright will hold onto the top Value Add ranking in the updated Top 100 below despite Shabazz Napier's incredible tournament run. Doug McDermott will be the most valuable offensive player by the second largest margin of any year. Wright improved Utah's scoring margin by 8.39 points per game, while McDermott was worth 8.30 on offense but slightly less (7.07) once defense was accounted for in a system explained by Sports Illustrated here

The Value Add system accounts for every statistic available for each player that either hurts the team's scoring margin or helps it over what would happen if a good bench player from a power conference took his place. For example, based on Wright's 8.39 rating we would expect that if Utah won a game 75-68 on a given night, that if a good bench player had taken his place that night they would have lost 70-71 (5 more points generated by Wright on offense, and three points taken away from opponents). Most fans assume the impact would be greater, but when a star player is lost the second best player gets more shots, etc., and a player who changes the score by eight points a game on average will normally dramatically improve his team's record. Utah had only one other player in the Top 700 players.

The players who still have games left to impact their rating are marked "alive," but Napier is probably too far behind Wright (improves UConn's score by 8.05) to catch him even if he led the Huskies to the title, and he is way ahead of third-place Sean Kilpatrick of Cincinnati. McDermott dropped from third to seven after a very poor offensive and defensive performance against Baylor, but was still by far the top offensive player (8.30 to 7.01 for Billy Baron). The database of all Division 1 players will be updated shortly at www.valueaddbasketball.com.

Rnk Alive? Player Team Ht Yr Offense Value Add
1   Delon Wright Utah 6' 5" Jr 4.99 8.39
2 Alive Shabazz Napier Connecticut 6' 1" Sr 5.21 8.05
3   Sean Kilpatrick Cincinnati 6' 4" Sr 5.75 7.37
4   Jordan Adams UCLA 6' 5" So 4.99 7.22
5   TJ Warren North Carolina St. 6' 8" So 5.59 7.16
6   Billy Baron Canisius 6' 2" Sr 7.01 7.16
7   Doug McDermott Creighton 6' 8" Sr 8.30 7.07
8   Trevor Releford Alabama 6' 0 Sr 5.06 6.97
9   Xavier Thames San Diego St. 6' 3" Sr 5.37 6.90
10   Marcus Smart Oklahoma St. 6' 4" So 3.38 6.85
11   KJ McDaniels Clemson 6' 6" Jr 3.47 6.62
12 Alive Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 7' 0 Jr 5.54 6.50
13   Jarnell Stokes Tennessee 6' 8" Jr 4.85 6.47
14   Russ Smith Louisville 6' 0 Sr 3.99 6.42
15   Fred Van Vleet Wichita St. 5' 11" So 5.02 6.08
16   Briante Weber VCU 6' 2" Jr 1.78 6.06
17   Nick Johnson Arizona 6' 3" Jr 4.05 5.92
18   Lamar Patterson Pittsburgh 6' 5" Sr 4.32 5.84
19   Montrezl Harrell Louisville 6' 8" So 3.51 5.83
20   Langston Galloway Saint Joseph's 6' 2" Sr 5.70 5.73
21   Jabari Parker Duke 6' 8" Fr 4.27 5.71
22   RJ Hunter Georgia St. 6' 5" So 4.36 5.64
23   Ryan Watkins Boise St. 6' 9" Sr 5.56 5.61
24   Joseph Young Oregon 6' 2" Jr 6.22 5.61
25   Tyler Ennis Syracuse 6' 2" Fr 3.71 5.55
26   Kyle Anderson (UCLA) UCLA 6' 9" So 3.20 5.49
27   Jordan McRae Tennessee 6' 6" Sr 4.87 5.46
28 Alive Michael Frazier Florida 6' 4" So 4.26 5.45
29   Cameron Bairstow New Mexico 6' 9" Sr 5.04 5.43
30   Javon McCrea Buffalo 6' 7" Sr 3.94 5.33
31   Kendrick Perry Youngstown St. 6' 0 Sr 5.50 5.33
32   Kendall Williams New Mexico 6' 4" Sr 4.80 5.29
33   Perry Ellis Kansas 6' 8" So 4.42 5.25
34   Juwan Staten West Virginia 6' 1" Jr 5.05 5.25
35   Marcus Paige North Carolina 6' 1" So 4.82 5.24
36   Jalan West Northwestern St. 5' 10" So 4.43 5.21
37   Keifer Sykes Green Bay 5' 11" Jr 4.84 5.20
38 Alive Julius Randle Kentucky 6' 9" Fr 3.60 5.15
39   Khem Birch UNLV 6' 9" Jr 3.02 5.12
40   Gary Harris Michigan St. 6' 4" So 3.91 5.10
41   Rayvonte Rice Illinois 6' 4" Jr 2.73 5.07
42   Alan Williams UC Santa Barbara 6' 7" Jr 2.79 5.06
43   Nik Stauskas Michigan 6' 6" So 6.59 5.00
44   Justin Jackson Cincinnati 6' 8" Sr 1.28 4.99
45 Alive Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 7' 0 So 2.22 4.95
46   D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera Georgetown 6' 3" So 5.38 4.93
47   Larry Nance Wyoming 6' 8" Jr 2.41 4.92
48   Shawn Jones Middle Tennessee 6' 8" Sr 3.06 4.91
49   Bryce Cotton Providence 6' 1" Sr 6.63 4.90
50   Deonte Burton (Nevada) Nevada 6' 1" Sr 4.92 4.89
51   Tymell Murphy FIU 6' 5" Sr 3.09 4.88
52   Jacob Parker Stephen F. Austin 6' 6" Jr 4.02 4.85
53   TJ Bray Princeton 6' 5" Sr 5.55 4.85
54   Okaro White Florida St. 6' 8" Sr 3.76 4.79
55   Malcolm Brogdon Virginia 6' 5" So 3.52 4.74
56   Ron Baker Wichita St. 6' 3" So 3.71 4.72
57   Josh Scott Colorado 6' 10" So 4.21 4.72
58   Aaron Craft Ohio St. 6' 2" Sr 1.37 4.70
59   Markel Brown Oklahoma St. 6' 3" Sr 4.61 4.68
60   Egidijus Mockevicius Evansville 6' 10" So 2.80 4.66
61   Seth Tuttle Northern Iowa 6' 8" Jr 4.30 4.61
62   Joel Embiid Kansas 7' 0 Fr 2.04 4.57
63 Alive Casey Prather Florida 6' 6" Sr 3.44 4.45
64   Andrew Wiggins Kansas 6' 8" Fr 3.80 4.39
65   Devin Oliver Dayton 6' 7" Sr 4.15 4.39
66   Branden Dawson Michigan St. 6' 6" Jr 3.03 4.39
67   Trevor Cooney Syracuse 6' 4" So 3.64 4.39
68   CJ Wilcox Washington 6' 5" Sr 4.78 4.37
69   Tyreek Duren La Salle 6' 0 Sr 3.31 4.37
70   Talib Zanna Pittsburgh 6' 9" Jr 3.82 4.36
71 Alive Markus Kennedy SMU 6' 9" So 1.80 4.36
72 Alive Ben Brust Wisconsin 6' 1" Sr 4.57 4.33
73   Cory Jefferson Baylor 6' 9" Sr 3.41 4.33
74   Bobby Portis Arkansas 6' 10" Fr 2.84 4.32
75   Brandon Edwards UT Arlington 6' 6" Sr 4.69 4.31
76   Taylor Braun North Dakota St. 6' 7" Sr 4.75 4.28
77   TJ McConnell Arizona 6' 1" Jr 2.37 4.28
78 Alive Patric Young Florida 6' 9" Sr 2.63 4.27
79   Karvel Anderson Robert Morris 6' 2" Sr 5.33 4.26
80   TaShawn Thomas Houston 6' 8" Jr 3.18 4.25
81 Alive Tyler Johnson Fresno St. 6' 4" Sr 4.05 4.23
82   Aaron Gordon Arizona 6' 9" Fr 1.97 4.23
83   DeAndre Kane Iowa St. 6' 4" Sr 3.63 4.22
84   Daniel Miller Georgia Tech 6' 11" Sr 2.40 4.21
85   Mike Moser Oregon 6' 8" Sr 2.51 4.20
86   Brady Heslip Baylor 6' 2" Sr 4.98 4.16
87   Jordan Bachynski Arizona St. 8' 2" Sr 2.19 4.15
88 Alive Aaron Harrison Kentucky 6' 6" Fr 4.00 4.12
89   John Brown High Point 6' 8" So 3.98 4.11
90   Cleanthony Early Wichita St. 6' 8" Sr 3.59 4.10
91   Sam Dower Gonzaga 6' 9" Sr 3.47 4.08
92   Brice Johnson North Carolina 6' 9" So 2.20 4.07
93   JJ Mann Belmont 6' 6" Sr 3.77 4.07
94   Jason Calliste Oregon 6' 2" Sr 4.67 4.07
95 Alive Sam Dekker Wisconsin 6' 7" So 3.48 4.06
96   Dezmine Wells Maryland 6' 5" Jr 2.88 4.04
97   Coty Clarke Arkansas 6' 7" Sr 2.07 4.02
98   Stephen Holt Saint Mary's 6' 4" Sr 5.28 4.02
99   Manny Atkins Georgia St. 6' 6" Sr 3.63 4.02
100   Aaron Thomas Florida St. 6' 5" So 2.63 4.01

    






Published:4/3/2014 2:23:13 PM
[Middle East] Why Turkey Was Planning A False Flag Operation In Syria

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via Doug Casey's International Man blog,

You’ve probably heard about the recent leaked conversations involving Turkey.

It was stunning to hear the highest-ranking Turks casually discussing how to provoke a false flag incident that would justify a large military intervention in Syria.

This is a big deal because Turkish troops in Syria opens the door to NATO troops in Syria, which drastically expands the conflict.

As someone who has spent a number of years living and working in the Middle East, and having been to Syria multiple times, I was encouraged by my colleagues at Casey Research to share my perspective on this.

In case you didn’t know, a false flag is an incident that is designed to deceive people into thinking it was actually carried out by someone else.

It’s like the scene in the movie Fast Times at Ridgemont High. There’s a character who plays on the high school football team and has a fancy sports car. Later, his little brother’s friend accidentally trashes this car. Terrified at how the big brother could respond, they come up with a clever plan to shift the blame on someone else. They make it look like a rival football team vandalized the car, decorating it in the rival team’s colors and slogans. The plan works—the big brother is tricked into thinking that a rival football team trashed his car instead of the little brother.

This is the essence of a false flag, and the same tactic is used by the world’s militaries and intelligence services to nefarious effect. Many believe the Reichstag fire incident that allowed Hitler to drastically expand his power was a false flag operation.

So, why would the Turks propose doing such a thing in Syria?

To answer that question, we need to sift through the complexities of the Syrian situation.

First, the Syrian rebels are divided into mostly Salafi Islamists and secularists, or what was once known as the Free Syrian Army. As things stand right now, the latter is essentially irrelevant and has little influence on the ground—a reality that the Obama administration stubbornly refuses to acknowledge. The Salafi Islamists are the real power of the opposition and can be divided into roughly three groups.

1. The Islamic Front: This is the so-called “moderate” or “mainstream” group and is supported mostly by Saudi Arabia, but also by Turkey and Qatar. It’s the largest group in terms of men, but not necessarily the most militarily effective.

2. The Nusra Front: This is the official Al Qaeda franchise in Syria. It’s more radical, known for beheadings and suicide attacks, and is supported by wealthy individuals in the Gulf and allegedly to some degree from Qatar. Al Nusra also widely coordinates its activities with the Islamic Front. This leads many to question whether there’s any meaningful distinction between the two groups, other than giving the latter a “mainstream” veneer to potential Western backers.

3. ISIL: This stands for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. These guys are so hardcore that even Al Qaeda disavowed them, as their brutal tactics have alienated many locals. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t powerful on the ground, though. In fact, they control a huge swath of territory that stretches from eastern Syria into the Iraqi city of Fallujah, which for all intents and purposes is a distinct yet unrecognized political entity controlled by these guys.

Now back to the Turkish situation.

Turkey owns a very small piece of territory inside of Syria that dates back to the Ottoman Empire. This small piece of land is the tomb of Suleyman Shah, a relative of one of the founding Ottomans. It’s guarded by 24 Turkish troops and is considered sovereign Turkish territory.

Having Turkish troops in this area is not controversial, as the Syrian government has long agreed to it.

The region where this tomb is located has totally fallen out of the Syrian government’s control for many months. And now, the hardcore ISIL group controls the surrounding area. It has threatened the Turkish soldiers and told them to leave. The Turks refused, and that’s why the Turkish government is getting skittish.

This is where the leaked tape comes in.

The conversation started out with the Turks talking about how they can protect this tomb from ISIL. This is not controversial. I don’t believe the Syrian government would care about the Turks intervening to protect the tomb, since this is an area where it has lost control anyways. Plus, I’d bet the Syrian government would be happy to see the Turks bogged down fighting ISIL militants who’d otherwise be fighting them.

However, that was not the end of the conversation. The really sinister part comes when the high-ranking Turks talk about how easy it would be to create a false flag incident involving the tomb, and how they could use that to justify a much wider military intervention inside Syria.

Such an incident would be a sort of foot in the door to further military activities inside Syria and would allow the Turks to help their favored rebel groups, which have seen serious setbacks lately.

That step would clearly cause them to go to war with the Syrian government and drastically expand the conflict. And once Turkey is involved inside Syria, that opens the door for NATO to be involved.

The Erdogan government has staked a huge amount of domestic political capital by supporting the Syrian rebels. They gambled that their favored rebel groups would quickly win and as a result, Turkey would have more geopolitical influence in a post-Assad Syria. It was a losing bet. Turkey’s favored rebels have seriously faltered, and a growing number of Turkish voters have become skeptical of their government’s intervention and the blowback it’s causing.

A false flag incident with the tomb would be a way for Erdogan to double down in a desperate attempt to turn things around in Syria. Whoever leaked this conversation clearly timed it to take the wind out the sails of such a strategy.

There are only a few people with the capability and motivation to do this. As an ally of the Syrian government, Russian intelligence is at the top of that list. They have leaked similarly shocking private conversations in Ukraine recently. Members of the Turkish military opposed to Erdogan could have also done it.

Instead of coming up with a classy way of saying “touché,” the Turkish government responded by throwing a childish fit, futilely trying to block YouTube and Twitter.

In this digital age, restricting Internet access, seizing and spying on digital data, and otherwise tampering with an individual’s digital presence have become new tools in the traditional toolbox of desperate governments.

Fortunately, mitigating this risk is relatively easy by diversifying your digital presence internationally. In our Going Global publication, we have a comprehensive and actionable section on how to do just that. Whether it’s setting up an offshore email service or cloud file storage, to moving the components of your personal and business websites abroad, using secure encryption, or using a VPN to disguise which country you are accessing the Internet from to get past government blocks, Going Global covers it all.

While the actions of the Turkish government are pathetic and largely obsolete, that doesn’t mean other governments with much greater capabilities won’t try similar things. If we’ve learned anything over the past year, it’s that the NSA and the US government are very much in the business of trying to undermine your digital rights.

Internationalizing your digital presence is the solution. You will secure your privacy and ensure that no government can pull the plug on your digital life.


    






Published:4/2/2014 6:27:55 PM
[Entertainment] Dan Bucatinsky Joins NBC Comedy Pilot After Scandal Shocker Dan Bucatinsky Dan Bucatinsky is trading in the drama of Scandal for the comedy of marriage on NBC. The Emmy winner will star opposite Casey Wilson and Ken Marino in Marry Me, a comedy pilot from Happy...
Published:3/21/2014 11:40:31 AM
[Cyclicality] So You Want To Be A Speculator

Submitted by Louis James via Casey Research,

Doug Casey's 9 Secrets for Successful Speculation

When I started working for Doug Casey almost 10 years ago, I probably knew as much about investing as the average Joe, but I now know that I knew absolutely nothing then about successful speculation.

Learning from the international speculator himself—and from his business partner, David Galland, to give credit where due—was like taking the proverbial drink from a fire hose. Fortunately, I was quite thirsty.

You see, just before Doug and David hired me in 2004, I’d had something of an epiphany. As a writer, most of what I was doing at the time was grant-proposal writing, asking wealthy philanthropists to support causes I believed in. After some years of meeting wealthy people and asking them for money, it suddenly dawned on me that they were nothing like the mean, greedy stereotypes the average American envisions.

It’s quite embarrassing, but I have to admit that I was surprised how much I liked these “rich” people—not for what they could do for me, but for what they had done with their own lives. Most of them started with nothing and created financial empires. Even the ones who were born into wealthy families took what fortune gave them and turned it into much more. And though I’m sure the sample was biased, since I was meeting libertarian millionaires, these people accumulated wealth by creating real value that benefited those they did business with. My key observation was they were all very serious about money—not obsessed with it, but conscious of using it wisely and putting it to most efficient use. I greatly admired this; it’s what I strive for myself now.

But I’m getting ahead of myself. The reason for my embarrassment is that my surprise told me something about myself; I discovered that I’d had a bad attitude about money.

This may seem like a philosophical digression, but it’s an absolutely critical point. Without realizing that I’d adopted a cultural norm without conscious choice, I was like many others who believe that it is unseemly to care too much about money. I was working on saving the world, which was reward enough for me, and wanted only enough money to provide for my family.

And at the same instant my surprise at liking my rich donors made me realize that—despite my decades of pro-market activism—I had been prejudiced against successful capitalists, I realized that people who thought the way I did never had very much money.

It seems painfully obvious in hindsight. If thinking about money and exerting yourself to earn more of it makes you pinch your nose in disgust, how can you possibly be effective at doing so?

Well, you can’t. I’m convinced that while almost nobody intends to be poor, this is why so many people are. They may want the benefits of being rich, but they actually don’t want to be rich and have a great mental aversion to thinking about money and acting in ways that will bring more of it into their lives.

So, in May of 2004, I decided to get serious about money. I liked my rich friends and admired them all greatly, but I didn’t see any of them as superhuman. There was no reason I could not have done what any of them had done, if I’d had the same willingness to do the work they did to achieve success.

Lo and behold, it was two months later that Doug and David offered me a job at Casey Research. That’s not magic, nor coincidence; if it hadn’t been Casey, I would have found someone else to learn from. The important thing is that had the offer come two months sooner, being a champion of noble causes and not a money-grubbing financier, I would have turned it down.

I’m still a champion of noble causes, but how things have changed since I enrolled in “Casey U” and got serious about learning how to put my money to work for me, instead of me having to always work for money!

Instead of asking people for donations, I’m now the one writing checks (which I believe will get much larger in the not-too-distant future). I can tell you this is much more fun.

How did I do it? I followed Doug’s advice, speculated alongside him—and took profits with him. Without getting into the details, I can say I had some winning investments early on. I went long during the crash of 2008 and used the proceeds to buy property in 2010. I took profits on the property last year and bought the same stocks I was recommending in the International Speculator last fall, close to what now appears to have been another bottom.

In the interim, I’ve gone from renting to being a homeowner. I’ve gone from being an investment virgin to being one of those expert investors you occasionally see on TV. I’ve gone from a significant negative net worth to a significant nest egg… which I am happily working on increasing.

And I want to help all our readers do the same. Not because all we here at Casey Research care about is money, but because accumulating wealth creates value, as Doug teaches us.

It’s impossible, of course, to communicate all I’ve learned over my years with Doug in a simple article like this. I’m sure I’ll write a book on it someday—perhaps after the current gold cycle passes its coming manic peak.

Still, I can boil what I’ve learned from Doug down to a few “secrets” that can help you as they have me. I urge you to think of these as a study guide, if you will, not a complete set of instructions.

As you read the list below, think about how you can learn more about each secret and adapt it to your own most effective use.

Secret #1: Contrarianism takes courage.

Everyone knows the essential investment formula: “Buy low, sell high,” but it is so much easier said than done, it might as well be a secret formula.

The way to really make it work is to invest in an asset or commodity that people want and need but that for reasons of market cyclicality or other temporary factors, no one else is buying. When the vast majority thinks something necessary is a bad investment, you want to be a buyer—that’s what it means to be a contrarian.

Obviously, if this were easy, everyone would do it, and there would be no such thing as a contrarian opportunity. But it is very hard for most people to think independently enough to risk hard-won cash in ways others think is mistaken or too dangerous. Hence, fortune favors the bold.

Secret #2: Success takes discipline.

It’s not just a matter of courage, of course; you can bravely follow a path right off a cliff if you’re not careful. So you have to have a game plan for risk mitigation. You have to expect market volatility and turn it to your advantage. And you’ll need an exit strategy.

The ways a successful speculator needs discipline are endless, but the most critical of all is to employ smart buying and selling tactics, so you don’t get goaded into paying too much or spooked into selling for too little.

Secret #3: Analysis over emotion.

This may seem like an obvious corollary to the above, but it’s a point well worth stressing on its own. To be a successful speculator does not require being an emotionless robot, but it does require abiding by reason at times when either fear or euphoria tempt us to veer from our game plans.

When a substantial investment in a speculative pick tanks—for no company-specific reason—the sense of gut-wrenching fear is very real. Panic often causes investors to sell at the very time they should be backing up the truck for more.

Similarly, when a stock is on a tear and friends are congratulating you on what a genius you are, the temptation to remain fully exposed—or even take on more risk in a play that is no longer undervalued—can be irresistible. But to ignore the numbers because of how you feel is extremely risky and leads to realizing unnecessary losses and letting terrific gains slip through your fingers.

Secret #4: Trust your gut.

Trusting a gut feeling sounds contradictory to the above, but it’s really not. The point is not to put feelings over logic, but to listen to what your feelings tell you—particularly about company people you meet and their words in press releases.

“People” is the first of Doug Casey’s famous Eight Ps of Resource Stock Evaluation, and if a CEO comes across like a used-car salesman, that is telling you something. If a press release omits critical numbers or seems to be gilding the lily, that, too, tells you something.

The more experience you accumulate in whatever sector you focus on, the more acute your intuitive “radar” becomes: listen to it. There’s nothing more frustrating than to take a chance on a story that looked good on paper but that your gut was warning you about, and then the investment disappoints. Kicking yourself is bad for your knees.

Secret #5: Assume Bulshytt.

As a speculator, investor, or really anyone who buys anything, you have to assume that everyone in business has an angle. Their interests may coincide with your own, but you can’t assume that.

It’s vital to keep in mind whom you are speaking with and what their interest might be. This applies to even the most honest people in mining, which is such a difficult business, no mine would ever get built if company CEOs put out a press release every time they ran into a problem.

A mine, from exploration to production to reclamation, is a nonstop flow of problems that need solving. But your brokers want to make commissions, your conference organizers want excitement, your bullion dealers want volume, etc. And, yes, your newsletter writers want to eat as well; ask yourself who pays them and whether their interests are aligned with yours or the companies they cover.

(Bulshytt is not a typo, but a reference to Neal Stephenson's brilliant novel, Anathem, which defines the term, briefly, as words, phrases, or even entire books or speeches that are misleading or empty of meaning.)

Secret #6: The trend is your friend.

No one can predict the future, but anyone who applies him- or herself diligently enough can identify trends in the world that will have predictable consequences and outcomes.

If you identify a trend that is real—or that at least has an overwhelming amount of evidence in its favor—it can serve as both compass and chart, keeping you on course regardless of market chaos, irrational investors, and the ever-present flood of bulshytt.

Knowing that you are betting on a trend that makes great sense and is backed by hard data also helps maintain your courage. Remember; prices may fluctuate, but price and value are not the same thing. If you are right about the trend, it will be your friend. Also, remember that it’s easier to be right about the direction of a trend than its timing.

Secret #7: Only speculate with money you can afford to lose.

This is a logical corollary to the above. If you bet the farm or gamble away your children’s college tuition on risky speculations—and only relatively risky investments have the potential to generate the extraordinary returns that justify speculating in the first place—it will be almost impossible to maintain your cool and discipline when you need it.

As Doug likes to say; it’s better to risk 10% of your capital shooting for 100% gains than to risk 100% of your capital shooting for 10% gains.

Secret #8: Stack the odds in your favor.

Given the risks inherent in speculating for extraordinary gains, you have to stack the odds in your favor. If you can’t, don’t play.

There are several ways to do this, including betting on People with proven track records, buying when market corrections put companies on sale way below any objective valuation, and participating in private placements. The most critical may be to either conduct the due diligence most investors are too busy to be bothered with, or find someone you can trust to do it for you.

Secret #9: You can’t kiss all the girls.

This is one of Doug’s favorite sayings, and though seemingly obvious, it’s one of the main pitfalls for unwary speculators.

When you encounter a fantastic story or a stock going vertical and it feels like it’s getting away from you, it can be very, very difficult to do all the things I mention above. I can tell you from firsthand experience, it’s agonizing to identify a good bet, arrive too late, and see the ship sail off to great fortune—without you.

But if you let that push you into paying too much for your speculative picks, you can wipe out your own gains, even if you’re betting on the right trends.

You can’t kiss all the girls, and it only leads to trouble if you try. Fortunately, the universe of possible speculations is so vast, it simply doesn’t matter if someone else beats you to any particular one; there will always be another to ask for the next dance. Bide your time, and make your move only when all of the above is on your side.

Final Point

These are the principles I live and breathe every day as a speculator. The devil, of course, is in the details, which is why I’m happy to be the editor of the Casey International Speculator, where I can cover the ins and outs of all of the above in depth.

Right now, we’re looking at an opportunity the likes of which we haven’t seen in years: thanks to the downturn in gold—which now appears to have subsided—junior gold stocks are still drastically undervalued.

My team and I recently identified a set of junior mining companies that we believe have what it takes to potentially become 10-baggers, generating 1,000%+ gains. If you don’t yet subscribe, I encourage you to try the International Speculator risk-free today and get our detailed 10-Bagger List for 2014 that tells you exactly why we think these companies will be winners. Click here to learn more about the 10-Bagger List for 2014.

Whatever you do, the above distillation of Doug’s experience and wisdom should help you in your own quest.


    






Published:3/18/2014 7:05:47 PM
[Debt Ceiling] Complete Breakdown Of Financial Controls In US Government, Says Austin Fitts

Submitted by Casey Research's Sound Money blog,

Complete Breakdown of Financial Controls in US Government, Says Austin Fitts

Former HUD Assistant Housing Secretary and investment advisor Catherine Austin Fitts reveals her thoughts on the ever-rising debt ceiling… what Obamacare is really about (and that’s not socialized healthcare)… why over $4 trillion missing from federal programs may not be incompetence, but a covert strategy… how to protect yourself from the constant devaluation of the US dollar… and what exactly the Popsicle Index measures and why it matters.

Here are a few excerpts:

“I don’t see Obamacare as something designed to offer healthcare. … I think the question comes down to a bigger one, which is, are we going to create a society where one hundred percent of everything is digitized and under central control?”

 

“Who is the governance system, and why are they behaving the way they are behaving? What we see is literally a psychopathic effort and intensity—whether it is in the energy area, whether it is in the currency area, whether it is in the food area, whether it is in the healthcare area—to get 100% central control and to use digital means to do it, and the question is why?”

 

“Well, you have a complete breakdown of internal financial controls in the US government. … You had over $4 trillion of what is called undocumentable adjustments and to this day, [these agencies] have never, as required by law, produced audited financial statements.”

 

“In my experience, government is not incompetent at all. … Gridlock is a cover story, incompetence is a cover story. There is a plan, you just can’t see what it is.”

The article Complete Breakdown of Financial Controls in US Government, Says Austin Fitts was originally published at caseyresearch.com.

Full podcast audio below:

 


    






Published:3/13/2014 6:47:28 PM
[Switzerland] Peter Schiff's Offshore Strategies

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via Doug Casey's International Man blog,

Most readers are familiar with Peter Schiff. He is a financial commentator and author, CEO of Euro Pacific Capital, and is known for accurately predicting the 2008 financial crisis.

He also has a very keen understanding of internationalization. Peter shares with me his strategies in this must-read discussion below that I am happy to bring exclusively to International Man readers. (If you are not already a member, you can join for free here.)

Nick Giambruno: Peter, do you see the potential for another financial crisis in the US playing out in the not-so-distant future?

Peter Schiff: Unfortunately, yes. I mean, how soon is very difficult to tell. In fact, right now you’ve got a high level of complacency. The stock markets are rallying to new highs, nominal highs. People seem to be convinced that the worst is behind us, that the central banks of the world have solved their problems by papering them over. But, you know, I don’t think they’ve solved anything. I think they’ve compounded the underlying problems that caused the last crisis, and so now the next crisis will be that much worse because of what the central banks did, in particular the Federal Reserve.

The Fed is right now trying to prop the economy up, the housing market up with cheap money, and it is operating under the delusion that one day it can take that cheap money away and the economy and the housing market will just sustain on their own, but that’s not possible. The Fed is building an economy that is completely dependent on that cheap money. And so if you take it away, the economy implodes, but if you don’t take it away, then it’s worse.

Nick Giambruno: So what measures do you see coming into place—things such as capital controls?

Peter Schiff: Well, certainly as currencies depreciate, governments look to try to find ways to stop the bleeding. What’s really is going on with inflation is that you have a huge transfer of wealth from savers and lenders to debtors, and of course the US government is the world’s biggest debtor, but a lot of American voters are in debt too.

If you’re a saver and you don’t want to watch your assets confiscated through the printing press, then you’re going to try to protect yourself. You might do that by moving your dollars abroad, converting them to foreign currencies, trying to get out of harm’s way, and that’s when you have the government potentially coming in with capital controls.

Putting taxes on foreign currency transactions or maybe outright prohibiting them altogether, that will make it more difficult for you or more expensive to take protective measures. I think we’ve already got the beginnings of capital controls in the United States. The government is making it very difficult for Americans to do business abroad. Many foreign financial institutions, banks, and even bullion depositories are refusing to do business with American citizens for fear of retaliation by the IRS or other government agencies.

Nick Giambruno: So what can Americans and others living under a desperate government do to minimize this risk?

Peter Schiff: Well, the first thing that you could do is minimize your purchasing power risk. So you don’t have to get your money into a foreign bank or foreign brokerage account to get out of the dollar. I help Americans diversify globally within a US account, but their portfolio consists of foreign assets, whether it’s foreign bonds, government bonds, corporate bonds, foreign stocks, dividend-paying stocks, commodities, or precious metals. These are all things that will protect purchasing power in an inflationary time period, and things that the federal government—the Federal Reserve—can’t levy the inflation tax on.

If you’re more worried about political risk—about the US government seizing your assets—then you want to take the next step. This is not just getting out of the dollar, but getting your money out of the country. But again, the US government is making that more difficult right now.

I know personally. I set up a foreign brokerage firm as a subsidiary of my foreign bank, which I also set up, called Euro Pacific Bank. I did this predominantly for foreigners who were having trouble investing with my US brokerage firm. The securities rules and regulations are now so onerous that it almost caused me to view any foreigner as a terrorist. So if somebody in Australia wanted to open up an account with me, there was so much paperwork involved that oftentimes they would just give up halfway through the process. So what I did is I set up this foreign bank so that I wouldn’t have to operate under those confines, so I can be more competitive to a foreign investor, but I can’t offer these services to Americans.

My foreign bank is no different than many other foreign banks. In order to really protect the privacy of my foreign customers, I can’t accept American customers. And if I accepted American customers, my compliance cost would be so high that I would have to charge my foreign customers more for transactions to try to stay in business. So to mitigate all that regulation and the potential of having to share all the information on my foreign clients with the US government, I’m just not taking American customers with my foreign bank.

Nick Giambruno: So Euro Pacific Bank, where is it headquartered and why did you choose that jurisdiction?

Peter Schiff: It’s in St Vincent and the Grenadines (the Caribbean). I did it for a number of reasons: it’s close to me, but also because of the banking laws. You have secrecy, privacy, and you have no tax. They’re not going to impose any income tax on my company as an offshore bank, they’re also not going to impose any taxes, any withholding taxes on my bank’s customers’ interest income or their capital gains. And no one is going to pierce the wall of secrecy. You’re going to have to go in to a St. Vincent’s court and get a local court order to get any information from my bank.

The bank is regulated, but it’s not nearly as onerous as the type of regulations that I would face trying to do this business from the United States. In fact, some of the things we’re doing offshore might be completely impossible because they would no longer be economically viable if I tried to do them in America, but I can do them offshore because the government doesn’t impose these artificial barriers.

(Editor’s Note: You can find out more about Euro Pacific Bank here.)

Nick Giambruno: Generally speaking, which countries are you particularly bullish on?

Peter Schiff: It’s kind of like a monetary or economic triage; I’m always looking around the world to see which countries are in the least bad shape, which countries are the least reckless and the least irresponsible. You really can’t find any one country that’s doing it perfectly. You just have to find the ones that are making the fewest mistakes.

And I think high on that list are Singapore and Hong Kong. Those markets are relatively free of regulation, free of taxation. I mean, it’s not nonexistent, but on a relative basis you have a lot more freedom there, and so you have a lot more prosperity there. You have much better economic fundamentals. And not just in those two places, but in Southeast Asia in general, in a lot of the emerging economies, you’ll find a lot less government and a lot more freedom. People are working harder, they’re saving, they’re producing, and they’re exporting. You don’t have these trade deficits, budget deficits, and you don’t have armies of people looking to retire on government entitlements. In Europe, we still like Switzerland even though they are making mistakes tying their currency to the euro. I think eventually they will change that policy. Scandinavia, we have been investors in Norway, we’ve been investors in Sweden. Also Australia and New Zealand have been longtime favorites. We’ve been investing down there or even closer to home in Canada. We do have some investments in South America. We’re diversifying around the world trying to get into the right countries, the right currencies, the right asset classes.

Nick Giambruno: On a different note, we’ve seen the number of US citizens renouncing their citizenship sharply increase. We have also seen high-profile people like Tina Turner and Eduardo Saverin give up their US citizenship. Would Tina be eligible to use Euro Pacific Bank?

Peter Schiff: Yes, once you renounce your US citizenship. The only people who can’t bank with me are American citizens, or green card holders. So once you are no longer an American citizen, as long as you don’t reside in the United States, then you are welcome at the bank.

I think a lot of people are doing this obviously for tax reasons, although they can’t necessarily claim it’s for tax reasons. You have to fill out a form if you want to renounce your citizenship—which, by the way, you can only get from a foreign embassy or consulate. Those forms used to be free. Now they’re $500 apiece. So think about that. If they can charge you $500 for that form, they could charge $5,000, they could charge $5,000,000. They could basically make it impossible for you to leave. And they’re trying to make it more difficult ever since Eduardo Saverin from Facebook went to Singapore. Now the government is trying to come up with all sorts of ways to punish Americans who try to give up their citizenship, and this really is the sign of a nation in decay. Fifty years ago, nobody would want to give up American citizenship. They would cherish it. The fact that so many people are paying tremendous amounts of money to get this albatross off their neck shows you how much times have changed, that an American passport is not an asset to be cherished but a liability that people are willing to pay to get rid of.

Nick Giambruno: And what about yourself? Do you believe you are adequately diversified internationally?

Peter Schiff: I think my investments are; I own a lot of foreign stocks. I have a lot of precious metals, I have a lot of mining shares. But I still live in the United States, so I’m obviously still vulnerable here. My family is here, so I haven’t done anything about a physical exit strategy. Although I do think I have financial resources that would afford me the ability to relocate, but I haven’t actually taken any steps other than setting up a foreign business. I have the foreign bank in the Caribbean. I have a brokerage firm Euro Pacific Canada, and so I’ve got offices up there. I’m also thinking about opening up an office in Singapore and trying to move more of my business—particularly my asset management business—to move it from the US. Not only because of favorable tax treatment outside the US, but because of the regulatory environment. If you want to be globally competitive, you need to be in an area where you can minimize these costs because if I have those costs and my competitors don’t, then I am at a disadvantage. And also because I think that over time people are going to be more and more hesitant about sending their money to the United States. So if I’m going to manage money, I might have to manage it offshore, because I think people will be worried about sending it here. They might be worried that the US government might take it.

If it ever gets really, really bad that you feel that you have to leave, by then it might be illegal to take any gold or silver out of the country. Right now you can take more than $10,000 worth of cash or cash equivalents—which would include gold bullion—out of the country as long as you tell the government that you’re taking it. And if you don’t tell them and they catch you, there’s a big fine and jail penalty. But one day it might not be the case. It might be that you are prohibited from taking any significant amount of money out of the country, and who knows what the penalty might be if they catch you. But if it’s already out of the country, then you don’t have to worry, because you’re leaving with nothing and the money is on the other side of the border waiting for you.

Nick Giambruno: So the idea is to preempt capital controls?

Peter Schiff: Yeah, well, you get out the window before they slam it shut. That’s the whole idea, and right now those windows are shutting all around as more and more offshore institutions are saying “no thank you” to an American customer. But the other reason that you want to act sooner too is if they impose exchange controls or fees on purchasing precious metals. They don’t ban them, but they have a big tax on the transaction or a big tax on the foreign exchange. If you want to buy Swiss francs, they can have a transaction tax. You want to get your money out of the dollar before those taxes are imposed, because if you wait until they’re imposed, then you can’t get as much money out, because a lot of it is being lost to taxes. In getting out of the dollar, you’re trying to avoid the inflation tax, but they’re hitting you with some other kind of tax in the process because that’s really what they are trying to do. A lot of people are worrying about the income tax or the estate tax and they go through elaborate means to try to minimize those taxes, but then they leave themselves vulnerable to what might be the biggest tax of all: and that’s the inflation tax. So you have to act to protect yourself before so many people are trying to protect themselves that the government makes it almost impossible to do so.

Editor’s Note: Internationalization is your ultimate insurance policy. Whether it’s with a second passport, offshore physical gold storage, or other measures, it is critically important that you dilute the amount of control the bureaucrats in your home country wield over you by diversifying your political risk. You can find Casey Research’s A-Z guide on internationalization by clicking here.


    






Published:3/12/2014 6:27:44 PM
[Recession] Guest Post: Why The Wealth Effect Doesn’t Work

Submitted by Chris Casey of the Ludwig von Mises Institute,

Higher equity prices will boost consumer wealth and help increase confidence, which can spur spending. — Ben Bernanke, 2010

Across all financial media, between both political parties, and among most mainstream economists, the “wealth effect” is noted, promoted, and touted. The refrain is constant and the message seemingly simple: by increasing people wealth through rising stock and housing prices, the populace will increase their consumer spending which will spur economic growth. Its acceptance is as widespread as its justification is important, for it provides the rationale for the Federal Reserve’s unprecedented monetary expansion since 2008. While critics may dispute the wealth effect’s magnitude, few have challenged its conceptual soundness. Such is the purpose of this article. The wealth effect is but a mantra without merit.

The overarching pervasiveness of wealth effect acceptance is not wholly surprising, for it is a perfect blend of the Monetarist and Keynesian Schools. While its exact parentage and origin appears uncertain, its godfather is surely Milton Friedman who published his permanent income theory of consumption in 1957. In bifurcating disposable income into “transitory” and “permanent” income, Friedman argued the latter dictates our spending and consists of our expected income in perpetuity. If consumer spending is generated by expected income, then surely it must also be supported by current wealth?

But this may or may not be true. It will vary across time, place, and among various economic actors whose decisions about consumer spending are dictated by their time preferences. And time preferences — the degree to which an individual favors a good or service today (consumption) relative to future enjoyment — take into account far more variables than the current, unrealized wealth reported in brokerage statements and housing appraisals.

Regardless as to whether or not increased wealth will actually spur increased consumer spending, the most important component of the wealth effect is the assumption that increased consumer spending stimulates economic growth. It is this Keynesian concept which is critical to the wealth effect’s validity. If increased consumer spending fails to stimulate the economy, the theory of the wealth effect fails. Wealth effect turns into wealth defect.

Will increased consumer spending improve the economy? On one side of the argument, we have the aggregate individual conclusions of hundreds of millions of economic actors, each acting in their own best interest. These individuals and businesses are attempting to reduce consumer spending and increase savings.

Dissenting from their views are the seven members of the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve. Each member believes in the paradox of thrift — the belief that increased savings, while beneficial for any particular economic actor, have deleterious effects for the economy as a whole. The paradox of thrift can essentially be described as such: decreased consumer spending lowers aggregate demand which reduces employment levels which negatively affects consumption which in turn lowers aggregate demand. The paradox predicts an economic death spiral from diminished demand. And mainstream economists believe we were (and potentially are) mired in such a spiral. As noted econo-sadist Paul Krugman noted in 2009: “we won’t always face the paradox of thrift. But right now it’s very, very real.”

The inverse of this “reality” predicts flourishing economic prosperity when a society increases its consumer spending. But history suggests the opposite: it is higher savings rates which lead to economic prosperity. Examine any economic success story such as modern China, nineteenth century America, or post-World War II Japan and South Korea: did their economic rise derive from unbridled consumption, or strict frugality? The answer is self-evident: it is the savings from the curtailment of consumption, combined with minimal government involvement in economic affairs, which generates economic growth.

So why do so many “preeminent” economists falsely believe in the paradox of thrift, and thus the wealth effect? It is because of their mistaken understanding of the nature of savings. The Austrian economist Mark Skousen addressed this in writing:

    Savings do not disappear from the economy; they are merely channeled into a different avenue. Savings are spent on investment capital now and then spent on consumer goods later.

Savings are spent. Not directly by consumers on electronics and espressos, but indirectly by businesses via banks on more efficient machinery and capital expansions. Increased savings may (initially) negatively affect retail shops, but it benefits producers who create the goods demanded from the increased pool of savings. On the whole, the economy is more efficient and prosperous.

Does this economic maxim hold even when the economy is in a recession? Even more so. As all Austrian economists know, business cycles derive from government manipulation of the money supply which artificially lowers and distorts the structure of interest rates.[9] To minimize the length and severity of a recession, economic actors should save more which will reduce the gap between artificial and natural rates of interest.

Regrettably, this is not merely an academic discussion. Due to their mistaken economic beliefs, the Federal Reserve has quadrupled the money supply while bringing interest rates to historic lows. The results will inevitably arise: significant price inflation, volatile financial markets, and severe economic downturns. In many respects, Sir Francis Bacon’s aphorism that “knowledge is power” is true. Unfortunately, in the economic realm, the Austrian economist F.A. Hayek was closer to the truth: those in power possess the pretense of knowledge.


    






Published:3/12/2014 10:00:40 AM
[Medicare] Frontrunning: March 11
  • Malaysia Says Stolen Passport User Had No Links to Terror Groups (BBG)
  • Malaysia military tracked missing plane to west coast (Reuters)
  • Freescale loss in Malaysia tragedy leads to travel policy questions (Reuters)
  • Firms Suffer 23% Drop in Asia Fees Amid Search for Cash (BBG)
  • Putin Dismisses U.S. Proposal on Ukraine (WSJ)
  • Lenovo says China strike an IBM matter, but it won't cut wages (Reuters)
  • Congress to Investigate GM Recall (WSJ)
  • New hedge funds face life or death battle for funding (FT)
  • Muni Bond Costs Hit Investors in Wallet (WSJ)
  • BOJ keeps stimulus in place, cuts view on exports in warning sign (Reuters)
  • ECB Homes In on Risky Assets as Inspectors Fan Out Across Europe  (BBG)
  • Snowden: "The Constitution was violated" (Reuters)
  • Lloyds Trader Said to Tip Off BP to $500 Million FX Deal (BBG)

 

Overnight Media Digest

WSJ

* GM faced new pressure from a powerful member of Congress to explain why it took nearly a decade to recall 1.6 million vehicles for faulty ignitions linked to 13 deaths, even as the auto maker hired a high-profile lawyer to lead its investigation.

* Although officials in Washington and Kabul often accuse Pakistan of being an unreliable ally, its army has lost roughly twice as many soldiers in the conflict with Taliban fighters as the U.S.

* Malaysian authorities said Monday that no debris from a missing Malaysia Airlines jetliner had been recovered despite a massive air and sea search under way for passengers and remains of the plane.

* The investigation into passengers aboard a missing Malaysia Airlines flight who were traveling with stolen passports has drawn attention to a thriving market for illicit documents and the disparity in aviation security across the globe.

* Russian President Vladimir Putin has apparently rejected a U.S. proposal to resolve the dispute over Ukraine that had been put forward by Secretary of State John Kerry over the past week, according to senior Russian and U.S. officials.

* Investors who put cash into municipal bonds, a popular strategy for those seeking safe, tax-free bets, are paying about twice as much in trading commissions as they would for corporate bonds, according to a study for the Journal.

* Chiquita of the U.S. and Fyffes of Ireland are merging to create the world's largest banana company, in an all-stock deal valued at about $1.07 billion.

* Virtu Financial Inc, one of the largest high-frequency trading firms, is seeking to raise $100 million in a public offering of its stock, according to a securities filing.

* Sprint Corp Chairman Masayoshi Son said in a television interview Monday that he would like to buy smaller rival T-Mobile US Inc, confirming his interest in a deal that would combine the country's No. 3 and No. 4 wireless companies and likely face heavy scrutiny from regulators.

* Longtime rivals Nasdaq OMX Group Inc and NYSE Euronext are joining forces in a bid to reclaim trading volumes from smaller competitors, according to people familiar with the matter.

The two firms are pushing for a controversial rule to be added to a pilot program under consideration by the Securities and Exchange Commission to widen tick sizes, or the increments between price quotes, for certain companies.

* EBay Inc formally rejected the two board nominees backed by activist investor Carl Icahn and reiterated its opposition to his proposal to spin off its PayPal subsidiary.

 

FT

Billions of dollars were wiped off the market value of the world's biggest mining companies on Monday after fresh concerns about slowing demand from China prompted one of the steepest falls in the price of iron ore on record.

Private equity group Permira is looking to float Japanese agricultural chemicals company Arysta LifeScience on the New York Stock Exchange.

Trading firm Virtu Financial Inc plans to raise up to $100 million in an initial public offering, the company said in a regulatory filing on Monday. People familiar with the firm's thinking said the 151-person company would raise as much as $250 million and give it a valuation of about $3 billion. Its founder, Vincent Viola, would see his roughly 68 per cent stake in the business valued at $2.04 billion.

Imperial Tobacco's electronic cigarette division has launched legal proceedings against nine of its US rivals that it alleges have encroached on its patents.

Nigerian oil company Seplat will announce on Tuesday a $350 million initial public offering in a dual listing on the London and Lagos stock exchanges.

 

NYT

* A House committee has started an investigation into the response by General Motors and federal safety regulators to complaints about faulty ignition switches that have been linked to 13 deaths, officials said on Monday.

* Myriad Genetics Inc has suffered a setback in its efforts to protect its main genetic test from competition. A federal judge on Monday denied Myriad's request for a preliminary injunction that would have immediately stopped a rival company, Ambry Genetics, from offering similar breast cancer tests.

* Puerto Rico is expected to sell about $3 billion in bonds on Tuesday at interest rates that are considerably lower than many investors in the municipal market had expected, providing a rare bright spot for the cash-squeezed island.

* The Blackstone Group and private equity firm TPG Capital are teaming up in a planned bid for manufacturing company Gates Global Inc, a person briefed on the matter said on Monday.

* The Obama administration on Monday withdrew a proposal that would have allowed insurers to limit Medicare coverage for certain classes of drugs, including those used to treat depression and schizophrenia, due to pressure from patients, pharmaceutical companies and members of Congress from both parties.

* General Electric Co Chief Executive Jeffrey Immelt emphasized on the "culture of simplification", in a letter to shareholders published on Monday. The effort to simplify involves reducing the size of the finance unit, GE Capital.

GE Capital has been selling assets, including a Swiss subsidiary whose initial public offering created a $1 billion tax benefit in the fourth quarter of 2013.

* U.S. fruit firm Chiquita Brands acquired Irish rival Fyffes, which distributes fruits across Europe for about $526 million. The all-stock deal will combine Chiquita, with robust sales in the United States, with Fyffes, which is stronger in Europe, to create a global banana production and distribution company.

* Minerals Technologies said on Monday that it had won a bidding war for Amcol International Corp, agreeing to pay about $1.7 billion.

* Morgan Stanley Chief Executive James Gorman said in a television interview on Monday that he did not have a firm grasp of Bitcoin, which has been much in the news after the collapse of a major exchange, Mt. Gox, and after Newsweek claimed to have found the currency's creator.

 

Canada

THE GLOBE AND MAIL

* Striking truckers choked off traffic almost entirely to Port Metro Vancouver on Monday after rejecting a back-to-work plan over the weekend, raising fears of price spikes if groceries and other goods sit on docks and waiting ships indefinitely.

Reports in the business section:

* Canada's first free-trade pact with an Asian nation promises to offer beef farmers, salmon fishermen and whisky makers a new toehold in South Korea by sweeping away virtually all border taxes in coming years. But it fails to secure some of the protections sought by vocal opponents in the auto industry, who immediately said Ottawa gave away too much.

NATIONAL POST

* Canadian Prime Minister Stephen Harper and his South Korean counterpart announced early on Tuesday that the two countries have concluded a free-trade agreement that the Canadian government boasts will be a major boost for the country's exporters in the fast-growing Asian market, but detractors fear will damage Ontario's key economic auto industry.

* BlackBerry Ltd has sold its U.S. headquarters in Irving, Texas, to Brookfield Property Partners LP for an undisclosed amount, just months after the struggling smartphone maker announced it was selling the bulk of its Canadian real estate assets to shore up its cash position.

FINANCIAL POST

* HJ Heinz Co, the ketchup maker taken private by 3G Capital Inc and Warren Buffett's Berkshire Hathaway Inc , paid Bernardo Hees $9.2 million in his first year as chief executive.

* Toronto-based Barrick Gold Corp unveiled a plan on Monday to sell roughly 41 million shares of African Barrick Gold Plc to institutional investors, or 13.5 percent of its holdings.

 

Hong Kong

SOUTH CHINA MORNING POST

-- An understanding between Beijing and pan-democrats that the method for electing the chief executive could be changed after universal suffrage is introduced in 2017 would create more room for compromise and avoid a "life-or-death" struggle, says a leading mainland expert on Hong Kong affairs. (link.reuters.com/xag57v)

-- Hong Kong textile manufacturers have signed a deal to set up their first industrial park in Yangon, which they expect will slash production costs by at least half. Workers at the 200-hectare facility in the former capital of Myanmar will be paid about a fifth of those employed in mainland factories. (link.reuters.com/zag57v)

THE STANDARD

-- The first residential project allotted solely to locals - One Kai Tak - will be available for sale by 2015, offering 1,179 flats. Only two pilot sites have been chosen so far for the "Hong Kong Property for Hong Kong People" scheme. (link.reuters.com/teg57v)

-- Work on the third runway at Hong Kong International Airport could begin as early as September, Airport Authority chief executive Stanley Hui Hon-chun said. The environmental assessment report will be submitted to the authorities by March-end and the permit is expected by September, he said. (link.reuters.com/meg57v)

-- There is still room for 4G service charges to fall in the mainland, China Mobile Guangdong branch head Zhong Tianhua said after the country's telecom regulator claimed such fees are too high. (link.reuters.com/reg57v)

HONG KONG ECONOMIC JOURNAL

-- Franshion Properties (China) Ltd said it was considering a seeking a separate listing of its hotel assets, comprising eight hotels in the mainland and ancillary businesses, on the Hong Kong bourse. Analysts estimate the assets could be worth about HK$20 billion ($2.58 billion).

-- Watchmaker and retailer Time Watch Investments Ltd expects its online sales to grow 60-100 percent for the fiscal year 2013/14 ending June, contributing to about 10 percent of its total revenue, according to chairman Tung Koon Ming.

MING PAO DAILY NEWS

-- Mattress maker Sinomax, which is seen to raise about HK$780 million in an initial public offering in Hong Kong, plans to open 10 lifestyle stores in the city and in mainland China before the end of this year, according to senior management.

APPLE DAILY

-- Galaxy Entertainment Group Ltd may declare a distribution of dividend for the first time when the casino operator releases its earnings next week, in a bid to lure more investment funds to invest in the company, analysts said.

 

Britain

The Telegraph

REGULATOR TO FORCE SHAKE-UP OF PROFITABLE INSURANCE ADD-ON MARKET

The Financial Conduct Authority is to force a major shake-up of the 4 billion pound insurance add-on market, creating greater competition in what it perceives to be a "closed shop" sector.

GATWICK OFFERS COMPENSATION TO HOUSEHOLDS AFFECTED BY SECOND RUNWAY

Gatwick has raised the stakes in the battle for airport expansion in the Greater London area by offering compensation to households likely to be most affected if the go-ahead is given for a second runway.

The Guardian

MORE CO-OP EXECUTIVES MAY GET PAY TOP-UPS WHEN COMMITTEE MEETS

The board committee that sets pay at the troubled Co-operative Group is expected to meet this week to discuss extending controversial retention payments to more members of the newly assembled top management team.

BANKING BONUSES WORLDWIDE UP 29 PERCENT AS CITY OF LONDON FARES EVEN BETTER

The average bankers' bonus globally was 29 percent higher than a year ago, with those in the City of London higher than in other parts of the world, according to a survey by a leading careers website.

The Times

NATION'S NUMBER CRUNCHERS RED-FACED AGAIN

The Office for National Statistics was red-faced when it published a notice urging users of its data to treat its latest estimate for workers on zero-hour contracts with "due caution", pending the forthcoming publication of more reliable figures.

HELP TO BUY LIKELY TO BE CLOSED EARLY, LENDERS WARN

Three quarters of lenders believe that the 12 billion pound scheme, which can be used to buy first homes worth up to 600,000 pounds, will be withdrawn early or scaled down, according to the Intermediary Mortgage Lenders Association. It is due to last until 2016.

The Independent

TRAVELEX SET FOR 1 BLN STG STOCK MARKET LISTING IN LONDON

Foreign currency specialist Travelex on Monday became the latest High Street giant to reveal it is considering a stock market flotation. The company, which provides cash and pre-paid cards to more than 37 million customers each year, ended months of speculation about its future plans by announcing it is looking at a 1 billion pound London listing.

Sky News

Fidelity Criticises Pay 'Mess' At Barclays

Fund management giant Fidelity International has become the first big City institution to publicly criticise Barclays over its 2.4 billion pound bonus pot, intensifying the pressure on the bank ahead of a potentially-fiery annual meeting next month.

 

Fly On The Wall 7:00 AM Market Snapshot

ECONOMIC REPORTS

Domestic economic reports scheduled for today include:
NFIB small business optimism index for February at 7:30--consensus 93.8
Wholesale Trade Inventories for January at 10:00--consensus 0.4%

ANALYST RESEARCH

Upgrades

Altra Holdings (AIMC) upgraded to Buy from Hold at KeyBanc
Apple (AAPL) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at Pacific Crest
BNY Mellon (BK) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at UBS
Bank of Ireland (IRE) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at BofA/Merrill
CDW Corporation (CDW) upgraded to Conviction Buy from Buy at Goldman
Hospitality Properties (HPT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Imperial Holdings (IFT) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at FBR Capital
InterMune (ITMN) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Goldman
J.C. Penney (JCP) upgraded to Buy from Neutral at Citigroup
Knightsbridge Tankers (VLCCF) upgraded to Overweight from Equal Weight at Evercore
Lonmin (lnmiy) upgraded to Neutral from Sell at Goldman
Macy's (M) upgraded to Outperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
Stanley Black & Decker (SWK) upgraded to Outperform at Wells Fargo
Wesco Aircraft (WAIR) upgraded to Outperform from Sector Perform at RBC Capital

Downgrades

Aixtron (AIXG) downgraded to Neutral from Outperform at Exane BNP Paribas
Amedisys (AMED) downgraded to Perform from Outperform at Oppenheimer
Arotech (ARTX) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at B. Riley
Brookfield Renewable (BEP) downgraded to Hold from Buy at Canaccord
FMC Corporation (FMC) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Wells Fargo
FMC Corporation (FMC) downgraded to Neutral from Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Millicom (MIICF) downgraded to Underweight from Equal Weight at Morgan Stanley
Northern Trust (NTRS) downgraded to Sell from Neutral at UBS
NxStage Medical (NXTM) downgraded to Underperform from Market Perform at Wells Fargo
State Street (STT) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at UBS
Triumph Group (TGI) downgraded to Sector Perform from Outperform at RBC Capital
U.S. Bancorp (USB) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Keefe Bruyette
Unisys (UIS) downgraded to Market Perform from Outperform at Raymond James
Vipshop (VIPS) downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Goldman

Initiations

AMD (AMD) initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant
Aeropostale (ARO) initiated with a Buy at Buckingham
Applied Micro Circuits (AMCC) initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant
Aruba Networks (ARUN) initiated with an Underperform at Bernstein
Cisco (CSCO) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein
Destination XL (DXLG) initiated with a Buy at Canaccord
F5 Networks (FFIV) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein
FLIR Systems (FLIR) initiated with an In-Line at Imperial Capital
GW Pharmaceuticals (GWPH) initiated with a Buy at BofA/Merrill
Immersion (IMMR) initiated with a Hold at Ascendiant
Infoblox (BLOX) initiated with an Overweight at Piper Jaffray
Inogen (ingn) initiated with an Outperform at Leerink
Inogen (ingn) initiated with an Overweight at JPMorgan
Intel (INTC) initiated with a Sell at Ascendiant
International Shipholding (ISH) initiated with an Outperform at Imperial Capital
InvenSense (INVN) initiated with a Hold at Ascendiant
Juniper (JNPR) initiated with a Market Perform at Bernstein
Magic Software (MGIC) initiated with an Equal Weight at Barclays
Neonode (NEON) initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant
RF Micro Devices (RFMD) initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant
Ruckus Wireless (RKUS) initiated with an Underperform at Bernstein
Skyworks (SWKS) initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant
Team Health (TMH) initiated with a Buy at UBS
Texas Instruments (TXN) initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant
TowerJazz (TSEM) initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant
TriQuint (TQNT) initiated with a Buy at Ascendiant
Ubiquiti Networks (UBNT) initiated with an Outperform at Bernstein

COMPANY NEWS

Yahoo (YHOO) named Alex Stamos as CISO
Bayer (BAYRY), Onyx (AMGN) reported Phase 3 study of Nexavar did not meet primary endpoint
Qualcomm (QCOM) named Derek Aberle as president
Document Security Systems (DSS) filed a patent claim against Samsung (SSNLF), Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM), and NEC Corporation of America
La Jolla Pharmaceutical (LJPC) announced that its Phase 2 trial of GCS-100 in chronic kidney disease reached its primary and key secondary endpoints
Activist hedge fund Elliott Associates disclosed a 4.99% stake in Boyd Gaming (BYD)
American Eagle Energy (AMZG) said it increased its interest in its Spyglass Area for a total consideration of $47M and said it plans capital spending of $86.1M in 2014
Honda (HMC) to create separate Acura, Honda divisions to spur sales

EARNINGS

Companies that beat consensus earnings expectations last night and today include:
E-House (EJ), Fontegra Financial (FRF), Atlas Financial (AFH), Douglas Dynamics (PLOW), Novavax (NVAX), LipoScience (LPDX), Medifast (MED), Limoneira (LMNR), Onconova (ONTX), PowerSecure (POWR), Urban Outfitters (URBN)

Companies that missed consensus earnings expectations include:
Gray Television (GTN), Sunshine Heart (SSH), Endeavour Silver (EXK), Park-Ohio (PKOH), Celluar Dynamics (ICELl), NMI Holdings (NMIH), Summit Midstream (SMLP), Fuel Tech (FTEK), Nuverra Environmental (NES), Dynavax (DVAX), Casey's General Stores (CASY)

Companies that matched consensus earnings expectations include:
FuelCell (FCEL), United Natural Foods (UNFI)

NEWSPAPERS/WEBSITES

Sprint's (S) Son confirms interest in buying T-Mobile (TMUS), WSJ reports
House Energy and Commerce Committee to look into General Motors (GM) recall, WSJ reports
Apple (AAPL) asks record labels for exclusive iTunes releases, LA Times reports
BHP Billiton (BHP) planning to sell West African iron ore assets, Australian Financial Review reports
Chobani working with Bank of America (BAC) to sell a 20% stake in the company that would value it at about $2.5B, Reuters reports
Sony (SNE), HTC and LG shifting to mid-range smartphone market, DigiTimes says
Judge denies Myriad Genetics (MYGN) request for injunction against rival, NY Times says

SYNDICATE

Access Midstream (ACMP) files to sell 8M common units for limited partners
American Eagle Energy (AMZG) files to sell 10M shares of common stock after split
China Recycling Energy (CREG) files to sell 8.77M shares of common stock for holders
ING U.S. (VOYA)files to sell $100M of common stock for holders
MakeMyTrip (MMYT) files to sell 3M shares of common stock for holders
Oxford Lane (OXLC) files to sell 2.35M shares of common stock
Post Holdings (POST) files to sell $250M senior notes, 4M shares of common stock
Stock Building Supply (STCK) files to sell 6.6M common shares for holders
Summit Midstream (SMLP) files to sell 8M common units for limited partners
Tekmira (TKMR) files to sell $60M of common stock
Vipshop (VIPS) files to sell 1.14M ADSs for holders


    






Published:3/11/2014 4:57:59 AM
[Precious Metals] What 10-Baggers (And 100-Baggers) Look Like

Submitted by Jeff Clark via Casey Research,

Now that it appears clear the bottom is in for gold, it’s time to stop fretting about how low prices will drop and how long the correction will last - and start looking at how high they’ll go and when they’ll get there.

When viewing the gold market from a historical perspective, one thing that’s clear is that the junior mining stocks tend to fluctuate between extreme boom and bust cycles. As a group, they’ll double in price, then crash by 75%... then double or triple or even quadruple again, only to crash 90%. Boom, bust, repeat.

Given that we just completed a major bust cycle - and not just any bust cycle, but one of the harshest on record, according to many veteran insiders - the setup for a major rally in gold stocks is right in front of us.

This may sound sensationalistic, but based on past historical patterns and where we think gold prices are headed, the odds are high that, on average, gold producers will trade in the $200 per share range before the next cycle is over. With most of them currently trading between $20 and $40, the returns could be stupendous. And the percentage returns of the typical junior will be greater by an order of magnitude, providing life-changing gains to smart investors.

What you’re about to see are historical returns of both producers and juniors during three separate boom cycles. These are factual returns; they are not hypothetical. And if you accept the fact that this market moves in cycles, you know it’s about to happen again.

Gold had a spectacular climb in 1979-1980, and gold stocks in general gave a staggering performance at that time—many of them becoming 10-baggers (1,000% gains and more). While this is a well-known fact, few researchers have bothered to identify exact returns from specific companies during this era.

Digging up hard data from before the mid-1980s, especially for the junior explorers, is difficult because the information wasn’t computerized at the time. So I sent my nephew Grant to the library to view the Wall Street Journal on microfiche. We also include information we’ve had from Scott Hunter of Haywood Securities; Larry Page, then-president of the Manex Resource Group; and the dusty archives at the Northern Miner.

Note: This means our tables, while accurate, are not at all comprehensive.

Let’s get started…

The Quintessential Bull Market: 1979-1980

The granddaddy of gold bull cycles occurred during the 1970s, culminating in an unabashed mania in 1979 and 1980. Gold peaked at $850 an ounce on January 21, 1980, a rise of 276% from the beginning of 1979. (Yes, the price of gold on the last trading day of 1978 was a mere $226 an ounce.)

Here’s a sampling of gold producer stock prices from this era. What you’ll notice in addition to the amazing returns is that gold stocks didn’t peak until nine months after gold did.

Returns of Producers in 1979-1980 Mania
Company Price on
12/29/1978
Sept. 1980
Peak
Return
Campbell Lake Mines $28.25 $94.75 235.4%
Dome Mines $78.25 $154.00 96.8%
Hecla Mining $5.12 $53.00 935.2%
Homestake Mining $30.00 $107.50 258.3%
Newmont Mining $21.50 $60.62 182.0%
Dickinson Mines $6.88 $27.50 299.7%
Sigma Mines $36.00 $57.00 58.3%
Giant Yellowknife Mines $11.13 $39.00 250.4%
AVERAGE     289.5%

 

Today, GDX is selling for $26.05 (as of February 26, 2014); if it mimicked the average 289.5% return, the price would reach $101.46.

 

Keep in mind, though, that our data measures the exact top of each company’s price. Most investors, of course, don’t sell at the very peak. If we were to able to grab, say, 80% of the climb, that’s still a return of 231.6%.

Here’s a sampling of how some successful junior gold stocks performed in the same period, along with the month each of them peaked.

Returns of Juniors in 1979-1980 Mania
Company Price on
12/29/1978
Price
Peak
Date
of Peak
Return
Carolin Mines $3.10 $57.00 Oct. 80 1,738.7%
Mosquito Creek Gold $0.70 $7.50 Oct. 80 971.4%
Northair Mines $3.00 $10.00 Oct. 80 233.3%
Silver Standard $0.58 $2.51 Mar. 80 332.8%
Lincoln Resources $0.78 $20.00 Oct. 80 2,464.1%
Lornex $15.00 $85.00 Oct. 80 466.7%
Imperial Metals $0.36 $1.95 Mar. 80 441.7%
Anglo-Bomarc Mines $1.80 $6.85 Oct. 80 280.6%
Avino Mines 0.33 5.5 Dec. 80 1,566.7%
Copper Lake $0.08 $10.50 Sep. 80 13,025.0%
David Minerals $1.15 $21.00 Oct. 80 1,726.1%
Eagle River Mines $0.19 $6.80 Dec. 80 3,478.9%
Meston Lake Resources $0.80 $10.50 Oct. 80 1,212.5%
Silverado Mines $0.26 $10.63 Oct. 80 3,988.5%
Wharf Resources $0.33 $9.50 Nov. 80 2,778.8%
AVERAGE       2,313.7%

 

If you had bought a reasonably diversified portfolio of top-performing gold juniors prior to 1979, your initial investment could have grown 23 times in just two years. If you had managed to grab 80% of that move, your gains would still have been over 1,850%.

 

This means a junior priced at $0.50 today that captured the average gain from this boom would sell for $12 at the top, or $9.75 at 80%. If you own ten juniors, imagine just one of them matching Copper Lake’s better than 100-bagger performance.

Here’s what returns of this magnitude could mean to you. Let’s say your portfolio includes $10,000 in gold juniors that yield spectacular gains such as the above. If the next boom cycle matches the 1979-1980 pattern, your portfolio could be worth $241,370 at its peak… or about $195,000 if you exit at 80% of the top prices.

Note that this does require that you sell to realize your profits. If you don’t take the money and run at some point, you may end up with little more than tears to fill an empty beer mug. In the subsequent bust cycle, many junior gold stocks, including some in the above list, dried up and blew away. Investors who held on to the bitter end not only saw all their gains evaporate, but lost their entire investments.

You have to play the cycle.

Returns from that era have been written about before, so I can hear some investors saying, “Yeah, but that only happened once.”

Au contraire. Read on…

The Hemlo Rally of 1981-1983

Many investors don’t know that there have been several bull cycles in gold and gold stocks since the 1979-1980 period.

Ironically, gold was flat during the two years of the Hemlo rally. But something else ignited a bull market. Discovery. Here’s how it happened…

Back in the day, most exploration was done by teams from the major producers. But because of lagging gold prices and the resulting need to cut overhead, they began to slash their exploration budgets, unleashing a swarm of experienced geologists armed with the knowledge of high-potential mineral targets they’d explored while working for the majors. Many formed their own companies and went after these targets.

This led to a series of spectacular discoveries, the first of which occurred in mid-1982, when Golden Sceptre and Goliath Gold discovered the Golden Giant deposit in the Hemlo area of eastern Canada. Gold prices rallied that summer, setting off a mini bull market that lasted until the following May. The public got involved, and as you can see, the results were impressive for such a short period of time.

Returns of Producers Related to Hemlo Rally of 1981-1983
Company 1981
Price
Price
Peak
Date
of High
Return
Agnico-Eagle $9.50 $21.00 Aug. 83 121.1%
Sigma $14.13 $24.50 Jan. 83 73.4%
Campbell Red Lake $16.63 $41.25 May 83 148.0%
Sullivan $3.85 $6.00 Mar. 84 55.8%
Teck Corp Class B $17.00 $21.88 Jun. 81 28.7%
Noranda $33.75 $36.38 Jun. 81 7.8%
AVERAGE       72.5%

 

Gold producers, on average, returned over 70% on investors’ money during this period. While these aren’t the same spectacular gains from just a few years earlier, keep in mind they occurred over only about 12 months’ time. This would be akin to a $20 gold stock soaring to $34.50 by this time next year, just because it’s located in a significant discovery area.

 

Once again, it was the juniors that brought the dazzling returns.

Returns of Juniors Related to Hemlo Rally of 1981-1983
Company 1981
Price
Price
Peak
Date
of High
Return
Corona Resources $1.10 $61.00 May 83 5,445.5%
Golden Sceptre $0.40 $31.00 May 83 7,650.0%
Goliath Gold $0.45 $32.00 Mar 83 7,011.1%
Bel-Air Resources $0.81 $1.60 Jan. 83 97.5%
Interlake Development $2.10 $6.40 Mar. 83 204.8%
AVERAGE       4,081.8%

 

The average return for these junior gold stocks that had a direct interest in the Hemlo area exceeded a whopping 4,000%.

 

This is especially impressive when you realize that it occurred without the gold stock industry as a whole participating. This tells us that a big discovery can lead to enormous gains, even if the industry as a whole is flat.

In other words, we have historical precedence that humongous returns are possible without a mania, by owning stocks with direct exposure to a discovery area. There are numerous examples of this in the past ten years, as any longtime reader of the International Speculator can attest.

By May 1983, roughly a year after it started, gold prices started back down again, spelling the end of that cycle—another reminder that one must sell to realize a profit.

The Roaring ’90s

By the time the ’90s rolled around, many junior exploration companies had acquired the “intellectual capital” they needed from the majors. Another series of gold discoveries in the mid-1990s set off one of the most stunning bull markets in the current generation.

Companies with big discoveries included Diamet, Diamond Fields, and Arequipa. This was also the time of the famous Bre-X scandal, a company that appeared to have made a stupendous discovery, but that was later found to have been “salting” its drill data (cheating).

By the summer of ’96, these discoveries had sparked another bull cycle, and companies with little more than a few drill holes were selling for $20 a share.

The table below, which includes some of the better-known names of the day, is worth the proverbial thousand words. The average producer more than tripled investors’ money during this period. Once again, these gains occurred in a relatively short period of time, in this case inside of two years.

Returns of Producers in Mid-1990s Bull Market
Company Pre-Bull
Market Price
Price
Peak
Date
of High
Return
Kinross Gold $5.00 $14.62 Feb. 96 192.4%
American Barrick $28.13 $44.25 Feb. 96 57.3%
Placer Dome $26.50 $41.37 Feb. 96 56.1%
Newmont $47.26 $82.46 Feb. 96 74.5%
Manhattan $1.50 $13.00 Nov. 96 766.7%
Cambior $10.00 $22.35 Jun. 96 123.5%
AVERAGE       211.7%

 

Here’s how some of the juniors performed. And if you’re the kind of investor with the courage to buy low and the discipline to sell during a frenzy, it can be worth a million dollars. Hold on to your hat.

 

Returns of Juniors in Mid-1990s Bull Market
Company Pre-Bull
Market Price
Price
Peak
Date
of High
Return
Cartaway $0.10 $26.14 May 96 26,040.0%
Golden Star $6.00 $27.50 Oct. 96 358.3%
Samex Mining $1.00 $7.20 May 96 620.0%
Pacific Amber $0.21 $9.40 Aug. 96 4,376.2%
Conquistador $0.50 $9.87 Mar. 96 1,874.0%
Corriente $1.00 $19.50 Mar. 97 1,850.0%
Valerie Gold $1.50 $28.90 May 96 1,826.7%
Arequipa $0.60 $34.75 May 96 5,691.7%
Bema Gold $2.00 $12.75 Aug. 96 537.5%
Farallon $0.80 $20.25 May 96 2,431.3%
Arizona Star $0.50 $15.95 Aug. 96 3,090.0%
Cream Minerals $0.30 $9.45 May 96 3,050.0%
Francisco Gold $1.00 $34.50 Mar. 97 3,350.0%
Mansfield $0.70 $10.50 Aug. 96 1,400.0%
Oliver Gold $0.40 $6.80 Oct. 96 1,600.0%
AVERAGE       3,873.0%

 

Many analysts refer to the 1970s bull market as the granddaddy of them all—and to a certain extent it was—but you’ll notice that the average return of these stocks during the late ’90s bull exceeds what the juniors did in the 1979-1980 boom.

 

This is akin to that $0.50 junior stock today reaching $19.86… or $16, if you snag 80% of the move. A $10,000 portfolio with similar returns would grow to over $397,000 (or over $319,000 on 80%).

Gold Stocks and Depression

Those of you in the deflation camp may dismiss all this because you’re convinced the Great Deflation is ahead. Fair enough. But you’d be wrong to assume gold stocks can’t do well in that environment.

Take a look at the returns of the two largest producers in the US and Canada, respectively, during the Great Depression of the 1930s, a period that saw significant price deflation.

Returns of Producers
During the Great Depression
Company 1929
Price
1933
Price
Total
Gain
Homestake Mining $65 $373 474%
Dome Mines $6 $39.50 558%

 

During a period of soup lines, crashing stock markets, and a fixed gold price, large gold producers handed investors five and six times their money in four years. If deflation “wins,” we still think gold equity investors can, too.

 

How to Capitalize on This Cycle

History shows that precious metals stocks move in cycles. We’ve now completed a major bust cycle and, we believe, are on the cusp of a tremendous boom. The only way to make the kind of money outlined above is to buy before the boom is in full swing. That’s now. For most readers, this is literally a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity.

As you can see above, there can be great variation among the returns of the companies. That’s why, even if you believe we’re destined for an “all-boats-rise” scenario, you still want to own the better companies.

My colleague Louis James, Casey’s chief metals and mining investment strategist, has identified the nine junior mining stocks that are most likely to become 10-baggers this year in their special report, the 10-Bagger List for 2014. Read more here.


    






Published:3/9/2014 4:28:41 PM
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