Knitting Behemoth Ravelry Bans Pro-Trump Content Over 'White Supremacy'
The bitter biddy brigade over at knitting super-site Ravelry.com have their pussy-hats in a twist over President Trump, and have taken action ahead of the 2020 election by banning all support for Trump and his administration from their platform.
In a Saturday announcement, the "Facebook of knitting" said "We cannot provide a space that is inclusive of all and also allow support for open white supremacy," adding "Support of the Trump administration is undeniably support for white supremacy."
The site did not explain which Trump policies it believes signify white supremacist ideology, though the president was roundly criticized for not condemning white nationalist violence after Charlottesville’s 2017 Unite The Right rally. The white supremacist demonstration had “very fine people on both sides,” Trump said, after one counterprotester was killed.
The ban cuts across all aspects of the site, including “forum posts, projects, patterns, profiles” and anything else, the announcement said. -Washington Post
Stroking their many cats while their husbands suffer in silence, the site administrators claim that they aren't endorsing Democrats or shunning Republicans.
"We are definitely not banning conservative politics. Hate groups and intolerance are different from other types of political positions," said Ravelry, which warned users not to goad others into supporting the president.
Ravelry was launched in 2007 by husband and wife Casey and Jessica Forbes, and claims 8 million registered users.
The company claims their anti-Trump policy was inspired by RPG.net, which banned public support of Trump in October.
Published:6/24/2019 12:41:58 PM
UK: A Clash Of Educations
Authored by Denis MacEoin via The Gatestone Institute,
While Britons are striving to promote British values, those increasingly appear not to be the values everyone here wants.
The No Outsiders curriculum... teaches acceptance of people different from oneself, which is what brings pupils into contact with mutual respect for Christians, Muslims and Jews, the disabled, gays and everyone who might be considered "other". "It should make absolutely clear that no group should be left out...."
There seems to be a broader agenda at work here: that is, to find ways in which to maintain British values when faced with people who in many instances seem to oppose them. One example might be a lesson summed up in the Anderton Park expressions about British values...: "Jewish people are equal to Sikhs, Muslims, Christians and people with no religion." Many might not agree to that sentiment, whether in primary or secondary education, and possibly many Muslim parents would wish their children not to be taught it....
The importance of teaching children about respect for other people cannot be exaggerated. In the light of this, can there be any question that the lessons at Anderton Park school are vital for the West?
What started as a small protest in the UK has taken on wider dimensions that are already spreading to other cities. For more than two months now, a primary school in Birmingham in the UK has been at the centre of a standoff between modern Western values and the concerns of a large group of Muslim parents. As early as April, reports said, leafleters were targeting schools in Birmingham, Manchester, Oldham, London, Blackburn and Bradford.
The almost daily protests outside the schools, although on a more muted scale, are the biggest since those against Salman Rushdie and his book, The Satanic Versesback in 1988 -- events that for some radicalized a generation. According to the author Kenan Malik, those early protests sowed the seeds of rifts that have since become wider. Some form of clash between these two sets of values is taking place again.
Anderton Park Primary School is an outstanding place of education for children between the ages of five and eleven. Most of the children are Muslims, but that does not restrict the efforts to introduce them to being fully educated citizens in the country where most were born.
Pictured: Anderton Park Primary School. (Image source: Oosoom/Wikimedia Commons)
According to the UK's 2011 Census, Muslims, numbering 234,014, make up 21.6% of Birmingham's population, well above the average for England and Wales as a whole (4.8%). Birmingham is the largest city by population after London. Its Muslim population is almost as large, and the city itself is even more ethnically diverse than the capital. Muslims have arrived from Africa, Asia (mainly Bangladesh and Pakistan), and parts of eastern Europe.
"Islam is a growing social force in Britain's second city", according to The Economist, and its Central Mosque "has influence everywhere from the classroom to the bedroom".
Clearly, what is happening in Birmingham may have a disproportionate bearing on Muslims and others throughout the UK. The context within which social pressures are growing seems, first, that Muslims now make up one in every twenty people in the UK. Alongside that, there is the understanding, developed by Dame Louise Casey in her 2016 governmental review of opportunity and integration in the UK, that Muslim communities have been proving the hardest to assimilate within British society at large.
If some Muslims find it hard to integrate (whether of their own volition or because of lack of opportunity within the general public), they often run their own communities, and often seem to reject the opportunities Britain offers them. Many have also been given to what appears to some Britons as unneighbourly behaviourin a period when many in the UK have been striving to promote British values while enjoying and accommodating the diversity of its many new inhabitants. This is what Prime Minister Theresa May emphasized in her introduction to the government's 2018 Integrated Communities Strategy Green Paper, that while Britons are striving to promote British values, those increasingly appear not to be the values everyone here wants. She said:
Britain is one of the world's most successful multi-ethnic, multi-faith societies. We can rightly be proud of this diversity, which has contributed so much to our culture and our economy, and has made us the strong, vibrant nation we are today. But we cannot ignore the challenges we face. We still have a long way to go to tackle the inequalities and injustices that hold people back. It is not right that where you are born, who your parents are, or where you went to school should determine your outcomes in life. The government's ground breaking Race Disparity Audit of public services reinforces the importance of addressing the inequalities that can act as barriers to integration and opportunity, barriers which prevent us from building a Britain where everyone has the chance to succeed. We must also do more to confront the segregation that can divide communities. This undermines our unity as a nation and prevents those in isolated communities from playing a full part in society and benefiting from the opportunities that living in Britain brings.
Let us take this for a broad context in which to look at Anderton Park Primary, after which we can examine the protests being made against it.
Anderton Park Primary stands out as one of several British schools that put special emphasis on teaching children the ways in which they can grow up to fulfil those hopes of Mrs May and all those in and outside government who work to bring about what they consider a good society for all citizens. Here are, first, Anderton Park's Equality Charter, and then its love for British Values. It is worth reading in some detail:
Anderton Park Equality Charter
In our school everyone is equal.
We treat everyone equally and fairly & challenge inequality & stereotypes
We cannot sparkle if we are not equal
We use positive, kind language to and about each other
We do not use the language of hate
We celebrate and protect differences
We fully uphold and believe in the Equality Act 2010 and do not discriminate against anyone because of gender, race and nationality, age, disability, sexual orientation (and gender identity, LGBT+), pregnancy, religion or beliefs or marital status
We actively promote equality and foster good relationships between people who share a characteristic and those who don't
We always challenge views or comments that are unacceptable.
Everyone is special. Everyone is welcome. Everyone is different.
We love Fundamental British values
By law this means we as staff, children, governors and families need to understand:
the rule of law
Mutual respect for and tolerance of those with different faiths and beliefs and for those without faith.
Our favourite law is the Equality Law 2010. We love it!
Girls are equal to boys. Gay people are equal to straight people. Disabled people are equal to able bodied people. Jewish people are equal to Sikhs, Muslims, Christians and people with no religion. You get the idea. This is so important.
We expect everyone to challenge any language or behaviour that is unequal.
We do not allow 'like a girl' to be used as an insult, just as we would not allow 'gay' or 'black' to be used as an insult. Boys play with dolls, dress up, girls are builders, pink is not for girls. Thus, we help students develop their self-knowledge, self-esteem and self-confidence, to distinguish right from wrong and to respect the civil and criminal law of England.
We encourage students to accept responsibility for their behaviour, show initiative, and to understand how they can contribute positively to the lives of those living and working in the locality of the school and to society more widely. We teach children they have choices. We reward what we value.
We will promote harmony & understanding between those with different cultural traditions by enabling students to acquire an appreciation for and respect for their own and other cultures.
Watch 'Like a Girl', 'Children See Children Do', 'Love has no labels' regularly to remember why this is important.
As a reflection of these values, Anderton Park is recognized by UNICEF as a Rights Respecting School, that is to say, a school that embeds the UN Convention on the Rights of the Child in their practice and ethos. There are now more than 5,000 rights respecting schools in the UK, and all compete for awards that recognize how far they have developed.
The protests against the school are being led by a young man named Shakeel Afsar, about whom little else is known other than that he has a niece and nephew at the school. "Anti-LGBT protests" have been focusing on the claim that Anderton Park is teaching young children about LGBT issues that are inappropriate on the grounds that Islam opposes and punishes homosexuals, often executing them. Parents were reportedly told, "If you take your kids to school today, you're not a Muslim and you'll burn in hell."
"LGBT issues" are, of course, a gross exaggeration of what the school actually teaches. Its head teacher, Sarah Hewitt-Clarkson, has made it clear that, among other things, Anderton Park does not even teach sex lessons:
The suggestion that Hewitt-Clarkson and her dedicated team are somehow "sexualising" pupils at the school is popular among the protest's leaders. But unlike many other primary schools, Anderton Park doesn't actually teach sex education.
"We have never taught sex here," Hewitt-Clarkson says. "Some primary schools do, but we don't, and we never will."
Anderton Park also does not deliver specific lessons on LGBT rights. Instead, the idea of families with "two mummies or two daddies" is normalised through the books that children read and the discussions they have with teachers.
"When you read all these news reports or listen to these protesters, you'd think we talk about being gay the whole time," Hewitt-Clarkson says. "It's probably 0.5 per cent of the time, but because it's here there and everywhere, it's just normal.
She goes on later, in Human Rights News and Views, to discuss the school's No Outsiders curriculum, which teaches acceptance of people different from oneself, which is what brings pupils into contact with mutual respect for Christians, Muslims and Jews, the disabled, gays and everyone who might be considered "other". "It should make absolutely clear that no group should be left out...."
These lessons are based on the No Outsiders lessons programme developed in Birmingham itself:
The No Outsiders programme was created in 2014 by Andrew Moffat, the assistant head teacher at Parkfield Community School in Birmingham.
The programme aims to teach children about the characteristics protected by the Equality Act -- such as sexual orientation and religion.
Books used in programme include stories about a dog that doesn't feel like it fits in, two male penguins that raise a chick together and a boy who likes to dress up like a mermaid.
Regrettably, the protestors' emphasis on LGBT has forced schools emphasis on are forcing schools to cancel a wider programme, No Outsiders , which teaches diversity of all sorts. Next year the government might make lessons based on it compulsory.
Since the protests, several schools – Parkview Community School, and four primaries: Leigh Primary School, Alston Primary School, Marlborough Junior and Infants School and Wyndcliff Primary School – have stopped teaching "No Outsiders" altogether, even though lessons in diversity of all sorts do indeed provide the most important lesson for all children – a lesson that will be present, one hopes, throughout their lives.
What on earth, we may ask, can there be to prompt months of protest in which so many people have become incensed? In March, just before the Anderton Park School protests began, Afsar had led similar cries of outrage against another primary school not far away, Parkfield School. On that occasion, the school backed down and agreed to suspend all LGBT lessons until they came to an agreement with parents –- an agreement Afsar and others might again try to prevent.
There seems to be a broader agenda at work here: that is, to find ways in which to maintain British values when faced with people who in many instances seem to oppose them. One example might be a lesson summed up in the Anderton Park expressions about British values, which underpin so much of the school's ethos: "Jewish people are equal to Sikhs, Muslims, Christians and people with no religion."
Many might not agree to that sentiment, whether in primary or secondary education, and possibly many Muslim parents would wish their children not to be taught it as it contradicts one of the most fundamental doctrines of the Islamic faith: that in God's eyes Islam and Islam alone is the true religion. Unfortunately, however, that doctrine contravenes the law against religious discrimination under the 2010 Equality Act. Here again:
Anderton Park's approach to equalities education, which weaves teaching about equal rights and the challenging of stereotypes into the wider curriculum and has the 2010 Equality Act at its core, is nothing new. (Italics added).
Hewitt-Clarkson has for many years devoted 0.5% of her annual timetable to teaching the characteristics of the Equality Act, which underlies her school's Equality statement above. Half of the school's staff are themselves Muslim. But everyone is expected to be proactive against discrimination:
As public sector workers, teachers have a duty to eliminate discrimination, tackle prejudice and foster good relations between people who have a protected characteristic and those who don't. You don't just sit back and wait until a racist or homophobic thing happens to deal with it – you go out of your way to promote good relationships.
The headmistress's concern to meet the requirements of the Equality Act is endorsed by Amanda Spielman, the Chief Inspector of Ofsted, the government's Office for Standards in Education, which monitors, evaluates and grades all schools in the country.
With direct reference to the crisis facing Anderton Park and remarks by MP Esther McVey that parents know best and should be able to withdraw their children from relationship education until they are as old as 16, Spielman rebutted the idea forcefully:
"To be clear, this is about the Equality Act, which says children must be taught respect for the protected characteristics and to the extent we have got a case where it says this isn't a pick and choose whichever one's parents feel like."
The Equality Act is aimed at protecting people from discrimination on grounds of religion or belief, sexual orientation and age.
Spielman said the new relationships education lessons were "age appropriate" and not to be confused with sex education, which is not mandatory until secondary school.
But she added that opt-outs would undermine the National Curriculum:
"The idea that, on the one hand, children need to be prepared for life in modern Britain and this is an obligation for all schools, yet at the same time parents can opt out completely ... well, what would you do if parents could opt out of biology, could opt out of geography, because they didn't want their children knowing about evolution or reproduction? Where would it end?
"At the point you start saying every parent can choose which topics, we have completely lost sight of a national curriculum, of a national education system that prepares all children in this country."
The matter will have to be concluded soon. In September 2020, RSE lessons will become statutory [relationships and sex education] for all state-funded schools. The RSE curriculum lasts to age 16 and teaches children necessary information about family and friend relationships, and in later stages about sexual matters. Many faith schools are included in the statutory requirements. To refuse to teach such classes will mean breaking the law, and parents who withdraw their children for reasons that contradict those legal requirements may well face charges of denying them an education.
The importance of teaching children about respect for other people, including people with different sexual orientations, cannot be exaggerated. In the light of this, can there be any question that the lessons at Anderton Park school are vital for the West?
Published:6/23/2019 6:35:17 AM
How David Bowie, Jimmy Page, Patti Smith and other musicians fell for William S. Burroughs
Casey Rae’s book looks back at the big-name rockers the beat writer influenced.
Published:6/21/2019 1:24:00 PM
8 Reasons A Huge Gold-Mania Is About To Begin
An epic gold bull market is on the menu for 2019.
I’m not talking about a garden-variety cyclical gold bull market, but rather one of the biggest gold manias in history.
This gold mania will be riding the wave of an incredibly powerful trend… the re-monetization of gold.
The last time the international monetary system experienced a paradigm shift of this magnitude was in 1971.
Then, the dollar price of gold skyrocketed over 2,300%.
It shot from $35 per ounce to a high of $850 in 1980. Gold mining stocks did even better.
Today, gold is still bouncing around its lows. Gold mining stocks are still very cheap. I expect returns to be at least as great as they were during the last paradigm shift.
So let’s get right into it, starting with the first four catalysts that will send gold prices higher…
No. 1: Basel III Moves Gold Closer to Officially Being Money Again
The Bank for International Settlements (BIS) is located in Basel, Switzerland. It’s often referred to as “the bank of central banks.” Its members consist of 60 central banks from the world’s largest economies.
It facilitates transactions – notably gold transactions – between central banks, the biggest players in the gold market.
The BIS also issues Basel Accords, or a set of recommendations for regulations that set the standards for the global banking industry.
On April 1, 2019, Basel III went into effect around the world.
Buried among what was mostly confusing jargon was something of huge significance for gold:
A 0% risk weight will apply to (i) cash owned and held at the bank or in transit; and (ii) gold bullion held at the bank or held in another bank on an allocated basis, to the extent the gold bullion assets are backed by gold bullion liabilities.
What this means in plain English is that gold’s official role in the international monetary system has been upgraded for the first time in decades.
Banks can now consider physical gold they hold, in certain circumstances, as a 0% risk asset. Previously, gold was considered riskier and most of the time could not be classified in this way. Basel III rules are making gold more attractive.
Central bankers and mainstream economists have ridiculed gold for going on 50 years now.
They’ve tried to downplay its role in favor of fiat currencies like the U.S. dollar. They’ve tried to trick people into believing it isn’t important.
The fact is gold is real money… a form of money that is far superior to rapidly depreciating paper currencies. This is why central bankers don’t want to acknowledge how important it is.
And this is precisely why Basel III is important. It signifies the start of a reversal in attitude and policy.
Basel III is giving gold more official recognition in the international financial system. It represents a step towards the re-monetization of gold… and the recognition of this powerful trend in motion.
No. 2: Central Banks Are Buying Record Amounts of Gold
Countries are treating gold as money for the first time in generations…
In 2010, something remarkable happened. Central banks changed from being net sellers of gold to net buyers of gold. Remember, central banks are by far the biggest actors in the global gold market.
This trend has only accelerated since…
The World Gold Council reports that in 2018, central banks bought a record 651 tonnes of gold. This is the highest level of net purchases since 1971 when Nixon closed the gold window. And it’s a 75% increase from 2017.
Russia Was the Biggest Buyer
Russia’s gold reserves have quadrupled in the last decade, making it the fifth-largest holder of gold in the world.
Last year, Russia notably dumped nearly $100 billion worth of U.S. Treasuries, and, according to the World Gold Council, replaced much of it with gold.
If this trend continues, and I expect that it will, Russia will soon become the third-largest gold holder in the world.
A major reason for Russia’s gold purchases is to reduce its reliance on the U.S. dollar and exposure to U.S. financial sanctions.
It is providing a template for others to do the same, using gold as money.
For example, in 2016, news broke that Turkey and Iran were engaged in a “gas for gold” plan. Iran is under U.S. sanctions. Through the plan, Turkey can pay for gas imported from Iran with gold.
Russia, Iran, Venezuela, and others are proving they don’t need the U.S. dollar. They are conducting business and settling trade with gold shipments, which aren’t under the control of the U.S. government.
This is how gold will benefit from the U.S. government using the dollar as a financial weapon.
No. 3: Oil for Gold – China’s Golden Alternative
In 2017, when tensions with North Korea were rising, Trump’s Treasury secretary threatened to kick China out of the U.S. dollar system if it didn’t crack down on North Korea.
If the threat had been carried out, it would have been the financial equivalent of dropping a nuclear bomb on Beijing.
Without access to dollars, China would struggle to import oil and engage in international trade. Its economy would come to a grinding halt.
China would rather not depend on an adversary like this. This is one of the main reasons it created what I call the “Golden Alternative.”
Last year, the Shanghai International Energy Exchange launched a crude oil futures contract denominated in Chinese yuan. For the first time in the post-World War II era, it will allow for large oil transactions outside of the U.S. dollar.
Of course, most oil producers don’t want a large reserve of yuan.
That’s why China has explicitly linked the crude futures contract with the ability to convert yuan into physical gold – without touching the Chinese government’s official reserves – through gold exchanges in Shanghai and Hong Kong. (Shanghai is already the world’s largest physical gold market.)
Bottom line, China’s Golden Alternative will allow oil producers to sell oil for gold and completely bypass any restrictions, regulations, or sanctions of the U.S. financial system.
With China’s Golden Alternative, a lot of oil money is going to flow into yuan and gold instead of dollars and Treasuries.
CNBC estimates that the amount of redirected oil money will eventually hit $600-$800 billion. Much of this will flow into the gold market, which itself is only $170 billion.
China is the world’s largest importer of oil.
So far this year, China has imported an average of around 9.8 million barrels of oil per day. This number is expected to grow at least 10% per year.
Right now, oil is hovering around $60 per barrel. That means China is spending around $588 million per day to import oil.
Gold is currently priced around $1,330 an ounce.
That means every day, China is importing oil worth over 442,105 ounces of gold.
If we’re conservative and assume that just half of Chinese imports will be purchased in gold soon, it translates into increased demand of more than 80 million ounces per year – or more than 70% of gold’s annual production.
This shift hasn’t been priced into the gold price. When it happens, the increased demand for gold from China’s Golden Alternative is going to shock the gold market.
The bottom line is, China’s Golden Alternative is a big step towards gold’s re-monetization.
No. 4: The Fed’s Dramatic Capitulation
In the wake of the 2008 crash, the Federal Reserve instituted several emergency measures. The chairman at the time, Bernanke, promised Congress they would be temporary.
This included money-printing programs euphemistically called “quantitative easing” (QE). Through QE, the Fed created $3.7 trillion out of thin air.
That newly created money was used to buy mainly government bonds, which sat on the Fed’s bloated balance sheet.
The Fed also brought interest rates to the lowest levels in U.S. history. The Fed artificially brought rates down to 0% and kept them there for over six years.
Capitalism’s Most Important Price
Remember, interest rates are simply the price of borrowing money (debt). They have an enormous impact on banks, the real estate market, and the auto industry, among others.
In 2016, the Fed began its attempt to “normalize” its monetary policy by raising interest rates and reducing the size of its balance sheet to more historically normal levels. By doing so, the Fed was reversing the emergency measures put in place after the 2008 crisis.
Interest rates have risen from 0% to around 2.5%, and the Fed has drained over $500 billion from its balance sheet, or about 11% from its peak.
But then, the stock market tanked…
The S&P 500 peaked at 2,930 in late September 2018. By late December, it had crashed over 19% and appeared to be headed sharply lower.
It was the worst December in stock market history, except for December 1931, which was during the Great Depression.
That spooked the Fed into its most abrupt change in monetary policy in recent history.
Instead of normalizing monetary policy and removing the so-called “temporary” and “emergency” measures in place since 2008 – as it had long planned to do – the Fed capitulated.
Earlier this year, the Fed announced it would not raise interest rates in 2019.
The Fed also announced it would phase out its balance sheet reduction program in the fall.
Previously, the Fed was slowly winding down its balance sheet by about $30 billion a month. At such a snail’s pace, it would have taken the Fed over 10 years to drain its balance sheet back to its pre-crisis normal level.
Hooked on Easy Money
This whole charade is indicative of how utterly dependent the U.S. economy has become on artificially low interest rates and easy money.
If the Fed couldn’t normalize interest rates when the debt was $22 trillion, how is it ever going to raise rates when the debt is $30 trillion or higher?
The Fed couldn’t shrink a $4.5 trillion balance sheet. How is it going to shrink, say, a $10 trillion balance sheet or higher?
The answer is it can’t and won’t. It’s impossible for the U.S. government to normalize interest rates with an abnormal amount of debt. The Fed is trapped.
After nearly six years of 0% interest rates, the U.S. economy is hooked on the heroin of easy money. It can’t even tolerate a modest reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet and 2.5% interest rates, still far below historical averages.
In other words, this monetary tightening cycle is over. The next move is a return to QE and 0%, and perhaps negative, interest rates. These moves would, of course, weaken the dollar and be good for gold.
By flipping from tightening to signaling future easing, the Fed has turned a major headwind for the gold market into a tailwind.
Now, let's dive deeper into what’s going to trigger this revival…
No. 5: Takeover Frenzy in the Gold Mining Industry
2019 is on track to be a record-breaking year for gold mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
The world’s largest mining companies are pouring billions of dollars into mergers and acquisitions.
Three blockbuster deals contributed to this result:
Newmont Mining completed a $10 billion takeover of Goldcorp on April 18.
Barrick Gold acquired Randgold Resources in a $6 billion transaction that closed on January 1.
Barrick Gold has also announced a joint venture with Newmont after a hostile bid from Barrick failed. (Barrick and Newmont are the top two gold-producing companies in the world.) The joint venture in Nevada will create the largest gold-producing complex in the world.
What these mega deals prove is that the biggest companies in gold mining think gold and gold stocks are cheap.
They show a preference to grow by buying out other companies rather than discovering and developing new resources.
If this trend continues, 2019 will go down as a record-breaking year for gold M&As.
It’s another major tailwind for gold.
No. 6: President Trump Is Pro-Gold
President Trump is a big fan of gold.
For one, he’s made a killing as a gold investor. He’s called investing in gold “easier than the construction business.”
But Trump’s affinity for gold goes much deeper. He once said:
The legacy of gold as a precious commodity has transcended to become a viable currency and an accepted universal monetary standard. Central Banks around the world are holding gold as a reserve asset.
And Trump is a fan of the gold standard… in other words, the re-monetization of gold.
While running for president, he said:
Bringing back the gold standard would be very hard to do, but boy, would it be wonderful. We’d have a standard on which to base our money.
And he’s acting on his pro-gold instincts in a big way. Let me explain…
Trump has been able to wield more influence over the Federal Reserve than any other president since the Fed was created in 1913.
He’s had the chance to fill five out of the seven seats on the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve.
In other words, Trump gets to stack over 70% of the whole Fed board with people of his choosing.
And so far, he’s nominated several pro-gold candidates, including Herman Cain and Stephen Moore. They’re both on record as supporting a gold standard.
For example, in 2012, when Cain was running for president, he wrote an editorial for The Wall Street Journal titled “We Need a Dollar as Good as Gold.” He wrote:
Gold is kryptonite to big-spending politicians. It is to the moochers and looters in government what sunlight and garlic are to vampires.
Cain and Moore have since withdrawn their nominations, but one replacement is widely suspected to be Judy Shelton, who is also an advocate of the gold standard.
Regardless, the fact that Trump nominated them in the first place shows he is willing to act on his pro-gold instincts.
Here’s the bottom line…
Having a U.S. president who favors gold and is looking to stack the Fed with pro-gold people is unprecedented in recent history. It’s a positive development for gold – and the trend of gold’s re-monetization.
But gold is going to get a boost, no matter which party is in power…
No. 7: Socialism Is on the Rise
Socialism is on the rise in the U.S. And it’s about to be entrenched in U.S. politics.
A recent poll from the Victims of Communism Memorial Foundation, a D.C.-based nonprofit, showed that one in two millennials now favors socialism and communism over capitalism.
It’s why Bernie Sanders, Elizabeth Warren, Kamala Harris, Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), and other socialists are skyrocketing in popularity.
This is no small problem.
Millennials are now the largest demographic group in America. And sometime this year, they are expected to surpass baby boomers as the nation’s largest living adult generation.
In other words, demographics alone guarantee more socialism ahead. And as we’ve seen again and again, when asked, “How are you going to pay for this?” socialists have the same answer: “Tax the rich!”
Simple arithmetic shows that even if the rich were taxed to the limit, it wouldn’t put a dent in the bills for the socialists’ government programs. But to this, the socialists respond: “We’ll just print money!”
In comes Modern Monetary Theory (MMT). It’s the latest buzzword coming out of Washington, D.C.
Contrary to its name, MMT is neither new nor “modern.” And adding the word “theory” to something doesn’t make it scientific or credible.
MMT is the same economic quackery that’s brought misery to Argentina, Venezuela, Zimbabwe, and countless other places. Now, left-leaning U.S. economists, politicians, and policy wonks are taking it seriously, too. They see it as a sort of “QE for the people.”
For example, AOC and Stephanie Kelton, Bernie Sanders’ former chief economic adviser, are leading advocates of MMT.
In short, America’s embrace of socialism will lead to more money-printing and currency debasement, just as it has everywhere else it’s been tried.
But this time, it won’t be the Argentine peso or the Venezuelan bolívar that is debased. It will be the U.S. dollar… the world’s premier reserve currency.
Gold is the primary competitor for the U.S. dollar’s top role. And as the American socialists inflate the value of the dollar away, it will make gold all that more attractive.
That’s why this trend will be a big positive for the re-monetization of gold.
No. 8: Gold-Backed Cryptos – A Monetary Revolution
The last catalyst for gold is cryptocurrencies backed by gold.
There are dozens of gold-backed cryptos sprouting up.
Peter Grosskopf, the CEO of Sprott, recently called gold-backed cryptocurrencies “the most important thing to happen to the gold market in the last several decades.”
Soon after, Sprott launched a gold-backed crypto it developed with its partners.
When Sprott – a leader in the natural resources industry – makes a big move into the gold-backed crypto space, it’s a definitive sign of where things are headed.
Gold-backed cryptos combine the best attributes of gold and cryptos. I can’t think of two other asset classes that have as many synergies. In other words, the whole is worth much more than the sum of the parts.
With cryptos redeemable for gold, we can now instantly send anyone anywhere in the world small or large amounts of gold – reliably and without interference. It’s nothing short of a monetary revolution.
Gold-backed cryptos are going to make using gold as money even more convenient for the average person and business. Anyone with a cell phone now can use gold in a way that was not possible before.
This is another big reason why I think gold is coming back as money.
Putting It All Together…
When you take a step back and look at the big picture, the implications for gold are clear:
Basel III moves gold toward officially being money again.
Central banks are buying record amounts of gold.
Excessive U.S. sanctions have pushed countries to use gold.
China’s “Golden Alternative” allows for large-scale, oil-for-gold trades.
The Fed’s dramatic reversal and the return of easy money bode well for gold’s strength against the dollar.
The takeover frenzy in the gold mining industry is bullish for the price of gold.
President Trump favors returning to the gold standard and is stacking the Fed with pro-gold people.
The Democrats’ embrace of socialism guarantees more currency debasement.
Gold-backed cryptos make owning and using gold easier than ever.
Any one of these catalysts alone would be great news for gold.
But the fact they are all converging at the same time means an epic gold bull market is on the menu for 2019. And the time to get positioned is now…
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Published:6/19/2019 4:11:51 PM
Doug Casey Debunks Four Myths About Trump, Taxes, & The Economy
International Man: For many years, President Trump has made no apologies for trying to pay the least amount of taxes possible. He’s clearly stated this in many interviews.
His desire to minimize his taxes has brought scorn from many in the mainstream media, and politicians from both sides of the aisle. These people are of the opinion that paying taxes is an honorable and necessary responsibility. It brings to mind the wrongheaded saying “taxes are the price we pay for a civilized society”, which came from US Supreme Court Justice Oliver Wendell Holmes. Many people believe this.
But if that’s true, how come low tax locales like Singapore, the Cayman Islands, Monaco aren’t backward hell holes, but rather sophisticated and civilized?
Doug Casey: Almost any lie can be accepted as truth if it’s said often enough and with enough certainty. That absolutely applies to what Holmes said. It’s shameful how people don’t think about its meaning, but slavishly repeat it.
Taxes aren’t the price we pay for civilized society. They’re a sign of the fact that society is becoming uncivilized. A civilized society is based on voluntarism. Taxes are all about coercion.
People don’t seem to recognize or remember that before 1913 there was no income tax in the US. There was no reporting of any kind to the US government. It was a much more civilized and far freer country then.
As far as Trump minimizing his taxes, congratulations to him. The object should be to cut the size of the US government in half, and cut it in half again, and again. And along with it, cut the tax burden that it imposes on the average American.
Trump should be proud of himself for cutting his taxes. It's your patriotic duty as an American citizen to deny revenue to the State and the kind of people that are drawn to it and populate it.
The fact that some people resent others for not paying taxes is just evidence that they’ve been consumed by the vice of envy, which is one of the worst of the vices. Jealousy says “if you have something that I want, I’ll try to take it from you, just because I want it." Envy says “if you have something that I want, and I can’t take it from you, I’ll destroy it and hurt you."
It’s speaks poorly of the ethics of the average American, that they’ll self-righteously shame their neighbors for not paying “enough” taxes to the State.
International Man: We often hear from politicians and the media that some people aren’t paying their “fair share” in taxes. Who gets to define what “fair” is, and based on what justifications?
Doug Casey: Whenever you hear the word fair, start running the other way. Everybody has a different idea of what’s “fair”— it’s an arbitrary concept. People manipulate its definition to their advantage. The only way to determine what might be fair is voluntary mutual agreement. That’s not possible with taxes—there’s no voluntarism involved. They are, in fact, a levy enforced at the point of a gun.
The most creative and productive people tend to have the highest incomes—unless they’re crony capitalists, which means they’re basically using the government to steal from everybody else.
Productive people shouldn’t be penalized for supplying more goods and services to their neighbors—to the market. The money they give to the government in taxes would have otherwise been used to create more wealth for the whole world. When it’s taken from them by taxes it’s mostly squandered on welfare and warfare.
The bottom half of the US really doesn’t pay any income tax. They only pay Social Security taxes, roughly a flat 15%. It’s theoretically a pension program, although in fact it’s a Ponzi scheme. Social Security is bankrupt. If anyone gets it in the years to come it will be at the expense of future taxpayers—not because any capital has been set aside.
Social Security is, and always has been, a swindle. It makes it harder for people to save on their own. And makes them feel they don’t have to. But it’s not a real pension plan; it’s a highly politicized welfare program. People have been propagandized into believing not just what isn’t true, but actually believing the opposite of the truth. The situation is actually pretty hopeless from a philosophical point of view and it’s getting worse. The average American believes Social Security and the income tax are both moral and necessary.
International Man: Doesn’t this system—which diverts wealth from productive use into government, which is naturally unproductive—make everyone worse off? You would think the lower and middle classes would be clamoring for more wealth creation that would also benefit them. Instead, many are asking for more wealth to be destroyed.
It seems this sort of thinking helps solidify a backwards system.
Doug Casey: Absolutely. The US government and its welfare programs are actually cementing the lower classes to the bottom of society.
You get what you encourage. When you give people free money for doing nothing, that’s what they’ll do. Take personal responsibility away from a man, and he’ll tend to act irresponsibly. The next step seems to be a guaranteed annual income for everybody where—presumably—where everybody can just sit around Starbucks all day sipping latte and playing with their iPhones, and be paid for it.
This trend has been building almost 100 years, and the curve is starting to go parabolic. To use a fashionable word, it’s “unsustainable” for everyone to try living at the expense of everyone else.
International Man: Another misnomer we often hear is that “deficits don’t matter”, a saying popularized by Dick Cheney, an ostensible fiscal conservative.
Doug Casey: Well, deficits do matter. In order to become wealthy you have to produce more than you consume and save the difference. Saving the difference builds capital. And you need capital to create more wealth.
Countries without capital are poor. Places like Zimbabwe, Cuba, and Mauritania. The only capital they have is sticks and stones.
The US government is in effect training people to consume more than they produce. Now, you can do that in basically two ways. One, by borrowing capital that’s been saved and created in the past, and consuming it. Or, two, you can do it by mortgaging your future.
It's not a pro-survival policy to consume more than you produce. It’s possible for a while, of course, but will wind up in disaster. The US government is encouraging people to do just that, however, directly and indirectly.
International Man: Yet another misguided, yet popular, saying is that we shouldn’t worry about the national debt because “we owe it to ourselves.” What’s your take Doug?
Doug Casey: It's another glib, gigantic, lie. “We” don’t owe it to ourselves. Some people owe it to some other people. If it’s not paid back somebody is going to walk away disappointed.
In fact, most of the debt is owed to non-Americans. Directly, in the form of the national debt. And indirectly, in the form of US dollars outside the US. For many years the major export of the US hasn’t been Boeings, or IBMs, or wheat. It’s been US dollars. We run a trade deficit of about $800 billion every year. In exchange, foreigners send us electronics, Mercedes, cocaine, and other real goods. This has artificially propped up the average American’s standard of living.
Those dollars circulate in other countries; the US dollar is the de facto currency of 50 other countries around the world.
At some point—since the US dollar is backed by nothing—if confidence goes away, those foreigners are going to want to get rid of their dollars. They’ll necessarily come back to the US where legal tender laws force Americans to accept them.
There are many trillions of dollars that are now abroad are a liability. Someday they’re going to be traded for US shares of stock, US real estate, US technology, and US labor.
Americans, who have grown accustomed to an artificially high standard of living for many years, are going to have a very real drop in their standard of living when those dollars come home.
We’re sending dollars to the Chinese and other foreigners. We’re also selling US government debt to the Federal Reserve, which then credits the government’s accounts at commercial banks with dollars. But that’s another story. It’s all a moving paper fantasy. It’s going to end badly, and end soon.
It could easily destroy everybody’s savings. And that, in turn, could destroy the very basis of society.
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The days of the US Dollar as the reserve currency are numbered. When that happens, the US will experience an economic crisis unlike we’ve seen before. The window to prepare yourself is still open. That’s why Doug’s Casey and his team have created this urgent video on what to expect and how to protect yourself. Click here to watch it now.
Published:6/16/2019 2:25:13 PM
All Americans Have Blood On Their Hands
Authored by Robert Scheer via TruthDig.com,
Shortly after Truthdig columnist Danny Sjursen left the Army, where he spent 18 years on active duty and rose to the rank of major, he sat down with Editor in Chief Robert Scheer for an interview about life after the military and a discussion about the conclusions he drew throughout his military career. Sjursen, who attended West Point and did several tours in the Middle East, including Iraq and Afghanistan, opened up to Scheer about how leaving the institution where he spent most of his adult life has allowed him to finally be completely frank about his experiences, in his columns as well as in his recent book, “Ghost Riders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge.”
“I’d like to think that I was always bold on active duty,” Sjursen tells Scheer in the latest installment of 'Scheer Intelligence', “but the reality is that I was censoring myself. You know, there is a degree of fear and harassment, and it’s very passive-aggressive stuff. But the book was a labor of love [that] tears apart the notion of American exceptionalism that brought us to Iraq, to a folly.”
Now, as Sjursen pursues a Ph.D and a career as a writer while adapting to his new life and grappling with post-traumatic stress disorder, the former soldier is still profoundly troubled by his experiences at war, not only as he led soldiers to their deaths, but also as he watched U.S. forces devastate Iraq and Afghanistan. Although he went to Iraq thinking the trouble with the war was the way it was being fought, he left with a very different impression of the conflict.
“What I saw happen to the Iraqi people [haunted me more] than what happened to my soldiers,” Sjursen says.
“Not only the bodies in the street, not only the civil war that was being waged, but I found that more than 90% of the very friendly Iraqis... Sunni and Shia, they all told me that life was better under Saddam. ... That was a big turning point, when I started to say, ‘Wait a second. You know, forget about fighting the war poorly; we shouldn’t be fighting this war at all.’ ”
Recounting the many ways the U.S. created worse conditions for Iraqis after the death of Saddam, Sjursen explains that the nearly half a million Iraqis who have died since the early 2000s were not killed directly by American soldiers, but by the unleashing of a “Pandora’s box of sectarian civil war in what was once a secular society.” The war in Afghanistan, while fought under different pretenses, was no less brutal or foolish than the Iraq War, in Sjursen’s eyes.
“The reality is, any chance of victory in Afghanistan was over the minute - and this only took weeks - the minute after we switched from a counterterrorism strategy, a surgical, law enforcement-type attack on the al-Qaida system - the minute we switched from that to nation-building, counterinsurgency and occupation, the war was already lost.”
But the blood on Sjursen’s hands, which he remains conscious of long after his last deployment, is on all Americans’ hands, as the Truthdig columnist points out. And with no end in sight to what have been dubbed our “forever wars,” it’s unlikely we’ll be able to wash our hands clean of these ongoing tragedies any time soon.
Listen to Sjursen and Scheer as they talk about everything from WikiLeaks to the accumulating failures of America’s leaders, at home and abroad. You can also read a transcript of the interview below the media player and find past episodes of “Scheer Intelligence” here.
-Introduction by Natasha Hakimi Zapata
Robert Scheer: Hi, this is Robert Scheer with another edition of “Scheer Intelligence,” where the intelligence comes from my guests. In this case, it’s someone–this is sort of the second part of an interview that began, oh, months ago, when Major Danny Sjursen was active duty in the Army. And he had spent 18 years of his life, ever since signing up at West Point–being admitted at West Point, a kid from Staten Island, a basically poor, working-class background. A lot of firemen and cops in his community and family. And affected by 9/11, the attack on the World Trade Center. But he went to West Point before 9/11. And people just thought, well, you know, god, they’re letting poor kids in there now, because the congressmen and the bankers, they don’t want their children to grow up to be lieutenants or even majors; he became a major eventually. So the military academy is actually more merit-based now than it might have once been. And so welcome, Major Sjursen. How are you?
Danny Sjursen: Oh, I’m great. Thanks for having me again, Bob.
RS: OK. And the reason I wanted to talk to you today is that, first of all, it’s two months now since you’ve been an active duty major. It’s something you’ve done, I’m sure, your whole life, adult life. And you were a lieutenant, you were in Iraq for a year and a half or so; you were in Afghanistan, and you were deployed other times. How many times were you deployed?
DS: Ah, just two combat deployments and then some short tours for–
RS: Yeah, but in many other countries and so forth–
DS: Of course, yeah, absolutely.
RS: And you’re a father of two children; you’ve had an interesting life. And you wrote a book about the surge in Iraq called “Ghost Riders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge.” And it’s a really terrific book that people can get, if they want to go online or find some bookstore that has it. And what it really—you know, I was going to start with something from the book, and you can help me here. It was a quote from Graham Greene: “Innocence is a kind of insanity.” Graham Greene, the great writer, great novelist. And he wrote “The Quiet American,” which is about innocence as a form of [insanity], how we got involved in Vietnam. And your book is really an unmasking of the conceit of innocence. Somehow Americans go off to war, they’re always intending to do good, they’re always going to make it a better world. And generally, they screw it up horribly, with very few rare exceptions. And that’s really the thesis here, isn’t it? And so why don’t you give us that overall view. And are you bolder in that view now that you’re not active duty, that you’re out of the military for the first time in 18 years? How does it feel?
DS: It feels good. I’d like to think that I was always bold on active duty, but the reality is that I was censoring myself. You know, there is a degree of fear and harassment, you know, and it’s very passive-aggressive stuff. But you know, the book was a labor of love. It started out as an essay, an angry essay that I wrote to Senator Lindsey Graham because I didn’t like something he said on C-SPAN, and it became a book. But you’re right that there are sort of the—the theme of innocence runs through it. And it’s two tracks; it’s my own innocence as someone who was, you know, naive enough to believe not only that the Iraq War might be valuable and necessary, but also that the military was just ultimately a force for good in the world. But the other innocence is a collective, national innocence. Only such a collective, national innocence that borders on insanity, as the quote says, could have allowed us to invade Iraq. Probably the catastrophic blunder of the 21st century, if not even larger than that. And I don’t even think we understand the scale of what a disaster we’ve created, because the aftershocks are–they’re sometimes worse than the initial earthquake. And we haven’t seen the last of it. So the book is an unmasking of my own innocence, which very quickly was rattled. By my third or fourth month in Iraq, I was anti-war. I mean, I was posting anti-war poems from World War I on the door to my room in Iraq, you know, provocatively. My little protest, you know, before I was told to pull them down. But you know, that’s what the book does. It tears apart the notion of American exceptionalism that brought us to Iraq, to a folly.
RS: The day that Julian Assange was arrested, you know, in the Ecuadorian Embassy, and they hauled him out of there. And you know, he’s been charged, and the charge is conspiring to commit computer intrusion. And what they’re doing is basically getting him on something they think they can nail him on; they don’t want to, this is his helping Bradley Manning, now known as Chelsea Manning, and be able to crack a computer code preventing entry into some data trove. But they didn’t—but at that moment in time, Bradley Manning had already released a million documents. They were fairly low-level secrecy; you can discuss that. But really, very revealing information, unquestionably, in my mind, that the public had a right to know, and a need—a need to know. Including how we shot up civilians, and so forth. And one reason why I wanted particularly to do this interview with you today is, you know, when people release these secrets, they’re always told they’re putting the troops in harm’s way. And you’re not, you’re dishonoring and threatening the troops. Well, you were a young lieutenant at that point, or had been a few years before. You were involved in the surge. And the documents that Chelsea Manning released really affected the kinds of activities you were in. You were in constant patrol in Baghdad, one end to the other, with your unit of what, 20 soldiers?
DS: Yeah, give or take, 20 soldiers.
RS: Half of whom ended up being killed or seriously injured, some of whom committed suicide. And I want to ask you, as the grunt on the ground—now, you were a lieutenant; you were a West Point graduate. You end up later in life teaching at West Point; you end up being a major before your retirement two months ago. But what did you think about that release of documents by Manning through WikiLeaks?
DS: You know, I had a very provocative view of it, in the sense that I thought it was a national service that he’d, you know, that he’d committed. My peers were horrified. They believed the myth that the troops were put in harm’s way by what he released, which was patently false. The people who were doing harm to the troops were the people who were lying, the people who were creating the secrecy. That’s what damaged the troops: the people that brought us to Iraq. One of the things that was most staggering for me was, in that million documents that then-Bradley Manning released, what there was was this evidence that we, the soldiers on the ground, knew that we were policing an internal, sectarian civil war. So in 2006 and ’07, dozens and sometimes hundreds of civilians would kill one another, right? Sunni versus Shia, in the middle of the night. And in the morning, we would gather the bodies and count them and report them. But that was all classified, at a low level; just secret, not top secret or anything. But at the same time that was going on, when we were using the words “civil war,” when we were witnessing a civil war, our leaders–General Casey, who was at the time the commander of multinational forces in Iraq, and senior defense officials, Rumsfeld, et cetera—they were telling the press, no, it’s not a civil war. We won’t use the words “civil war.” And I think largely that’s because they did not want to admit to the chaos that had broken out, that we had lost control, if we ever had it. That we had patently, forever, lost control of Baghdad. And of, really, the whole country, but especially the capital city. And you know, I was offended by that lie, because I lived the civil war. You know, I lived the multipronged war, where they were both attacking us and attacking each other. And that the country was both literally and figuratively on fire in late 2006, and I was offended by the lie. And I thought it was a brave decision. And, of course, whistleblowers were out of fashion, as you said earlier today, Bob. And obviously, he was crucified–she–and was given a 30-year sentence. And my peers thought that was just about right. Some of them thought, you know, she should have been executed.
RS: “She” being Chelsea Manning. And Julian Assange published these documents. And Washington Post, The Guardian, the British paper, papers all over the world, printed them. And interestingly enough, Julian Assange is not in the position that Daniel Ellsberg was in when he released the Pentagon Papers, a trove of—a history study, really; you’re a historian, I should point out you’re about to get your doctorate. The military sent you to graduate school in preparation of being an instructor at West Point. And now you’re at the end of your dissertation, and will be doctor, Dr. Danny Sjursen, in a couple of months. And the really interesting thing here is who controls history, who controls knowledge, who controls truth and true news? And fake news is really, in a way, the norm, it seems to me, if we talk about Vietnam, we talk about Iraq, and so forth. And without the whistleblowers, we don’t even get a crack—a crack there where the light can come through. But you were on the ground, and when you talk about it being—I mean, look, after all, we had supposedly gone to Iraq to find weapons of mass destruction; that was a lie. And it was a lie that Saddam Hussein had anything to do with 9/11; he didn’t. You know, and another lie is that somehow this was a backward country with no redeeming virtue–well, we managed to make it a far more unlivable, miserable country than it had ever been. Why don’t you talk—you got an education there. And now you’re in this, even though you’re going to be Dr. Danny Sjursen, you hopefully will be successful as a writer about history and a professor. And you, you know, you’re honorably discharged as a major from the military. But you’re a deeply troubled person by what you saw and experienced. Why don’t you—I mean, tell us the consequence, not just for you, but also for the Iraqi people.
DS: You know, I got there with just a little bit of idealism left. I had read Thomas Ricks’ “Fiasco,” so I was aware of the failures early in the war. But I think, at the time, I was in the mainstream of military officers, in the sense that I thought the war was being fought poorly, but I did not necessarily think that the war was wrong in itself. And, of course, I quickly came to believe that it was. And the best way, Bob, to talk about it is, you know, what I saw happen to the Iraqi people. Because more, believe it or not, than what happened to my soldiers, that haunted me. Not only the bodies in the street, not only the civil war that was being waged, but I found that more than 90% of the very friendly Iraqis–not attacking us, as far as I knew, you know; talking to me, drinking chai with me, thousands of them. And they all started telling me—Sunni and Shia, OK, and Saddam had been pretty brutal to the Shia—but Sunni and Shia, they all told me that life was better under Saddam. And they would say, we like you just fine; you’re a nice guy. But we want you out of here. I mean, look what you’ve done. You know, this is why we can’t have nice things. I mean, they really thought we had destroyed their country. Because we had. We had. So for me, that was a big turning point, when I started to say, “Wait a second. You know, forget about fighting the war poorly; we shouldn’t be fighting this war at all.” We’ve brought disaster–to the tune, now, most estimates, half a million dead, right. Mostly civilians, in Iraq. Did we—you know, we didn’t directly kill all of them. But we unleashed the Pandora’s box of sectarian civil war in what was once a secular society. Men and women holding hands, drinking in cafes—that’s all over with now. People get their heads cut off for less. That really shocked me. And then, of course, there was the idealism of my soldiers, who, you know, they were just fighting for each other, as the cliché goes. But it’s true.
RS: A serious student of the course—are we not up against the incompatibility of empire and republic? We were founded as a republic. As a historian, you know, we began to betray that promise from the day of our founding, or even before, when we were striving to be an independent country. What about this tension? Where are we now in empire land? And isn’t, really, this what the whistleblowers have been revealing, the consequence of empire?
DS: There are precious few whistleblowers about military issues, as you mentioned. And that is a shame, because what Julian Assange, WikiLeaks, and Chelsea Manning should be is a splash of cold water, a bucket of cold water, on the face of the collective American people. And yet it’s not, for the most part. We’re willing to accept what our military does in our name. We’re willing to accept that the United States has a system where the president is essentially a dictator in foreign policy. You’re right that it’s the only institution where we do not, you know, expect whistleblowers to provide that check, that truth that you mentioned. And it’s very, very disturbing. The bottom line is, you know, from a historical perspective, to answer your question, we are—we are long, long down the road of this empire. I mean, absolutely, far down that road. The republic, the ostensible republic, is dying. And empires tend, not only does it not end well when the empire comes home—as it always does; the empire always comes home, Britain, Rome, you name it. These countries on the way out, on the decline, that’s when they act the most absurd. Things go really poorly. They do not behave well. And what you’re looking at today is a United States of America that is not behaving well in the world, because it is in, you know, the twilight of its empire. And it may take a long time before the empire collapses, but in the interim, we are going to act poorly. And as long as we have an all-volunteer force, as long as a, you know, a select half of a percent—the other 1%, as I like to call them. As long as we give it out to a military caste, and it doesn’t Main Street, especially in the wealthy communities, then this will continue indefinitely, and America will continue to behave badly, as the empires often historically do.
RS: In what sense are we an empire? Because some people think, “Oh, you’re just throwing around rhetoric.” Now, we do happen to live in a time when more people are open to the possibility that something has gone awry, because Donald Trump is president, and he has the aura of an emperor. And, you know, the whole notion of, his notion of American greatness is a notion of power over others, and being able to dictate and fire lesser people, and dictate the terms of agreements, and they’ll do this, they’ll pay for the wall, these Mexicans, and the Chinese will bow to our will, and et cetera, et cetera. So we actually have an [emperor], but most people blame that on Julian Assange, or many people do, or on WikiLeaks, or something. They don’t seem to want to come to grips with the idea that maybe, maybe Trump is the man for the time of empire. And this is what emperors do, and sometimes they’re a little bit wacky, and sometimes they’re a little bit out of control, or more so. In what sense are we—you’re a historian; in what sense is this accurate labeling?
DS: You know, we—we are an empire. And I’m going to explain why, and then I’m going to talk about Trump a little. I have a complex relationship with my old commander in chief, my old chum. You know, we have 800 military bases in 80 countries; on any given day, we are bombing at least seven countries, some days more, if there’s something going on in Africa. We have a defense budget as large as the next seven countries’ combined. We have, you know, the majority of the world’s aircraft carriers, 10 times more than the Russians and the Chinese. We have divided the planet into regional commands—CENTCOM, Northcom, Southcom—where our four-star generals in charge of these commands are essentially Roman proconsuls, right? Ruling over—and much more powerful than our diplomats. Our diplomats are not taken seriously anymore; it’s the military that gets the business done. And you know, finally, we are unique. We are exceptional. Exceptional in the sense that we are the most imperial of all the places on the planet. Because there are 77 total foreign bases split between all the other 200 countries of the world, and we have some 800. So yes, certainly, we’re are an empire, by any stretch of the imagination. Now, our people, ironically, like to think we’re not. But you’re right that people are becoming a little more open to that. Now, Trump is—I think you’re correct—the reason why people are starting to accept that we might be an empire. But I would argue that Trump is not such an anomaly. He is a man for his times. You know, the question you have to ask in America, when it comes to the popularity contest that we call the presidential election every four years—that entertaining bit, right, of the blue team and the red team–you have two choices. And you will always have two choices. And the choice in the two major parties is between, do you like coarse emperors? Do you want your empire to be coarse and absurd and a little bit buffoonish? Or do you like your empire and your emperors to be polite? Because Barack Obama and Hillary Clinton would have been polite emperors. But the reality is, if anything, Donald Trump questions the empire at times—doesn’t always follow through—more than a Barack Obama, more than a Hillary Clinton or a George W. Bush or a Bill Clinton, for that matter. I mean, the question is not whether we’re an empire; it’s how do you like your imperialism? And you have two choices. Well, “liberal,” in quotes, society prefers polite emperors. And so they try to get them elected, and they can’t accept that a coarse emperor, like Donald Trump, is currently in charge.
RS: Well, one of those polite emperors was Lyndon Johnson. In fact, most of the more aggressive emperors have been Democrats, but put that aside for a minute. And then you’re raising an interesting question: Is this debate really over manners? Because, after all, Lyndon Johnson—and then came Richard Nixon—but together, I think a conservative figure would be that 4 or 5 million people lost their lives. Maybe more, certainly whole societies were disrupted. Certainly Barack Obama, to take the most pleasant of our emperors, if we’re going to use that language, you know, every morning would decide who to fire a drone attack on. Maybe it’s a wedding, maybe it’s a family living somewhere. And you served, in your 18 years in the military, under mild-mannered emperors and under more aggressive and buffoonish emperors. What was the difference on the ground?
DS: There was almost none. Certainly under George W. Bush we pursued more conventional military means. So there were more soldiers on the ground; there were more tours, right. Because there was more people there, therefore you deployed slightly more often. But what we were doing—
RS: But not as much as under Lyndon Johnson.
DS: No, no. By no means as much as under Lyndon Johnson. And of course, in reality, what we were doing on the ground was precisely the same. I mean, we were bringing instability, and we were dealing death. Usually from above, with the polite people like, you know, Barack Obama. He preferred the, you know, that killing. And it’s a myth. I mean, the myth that this is somehow a controlled killing, it’s precision-guided—of course, it’s not, it never is, and it probably never will be. But the big answer to your question is, very little changed on the ground for those of us carrying water for the empire, whether we had George W. Bush or Barack Obama or even Donald Trump.
RS: Well, spell that out, because most of us are not on the ground. In my own situation as a journalist, I’ve been parachuted into a few war zones, and can sense the mayhem. And some of my colleagues stayed much longer; I’m not going to take that away from them. But still, we are voyeurs to violence. You were dealing violence, right? And you were receiving, on the receiving end of violence. You know, this is not a video game. Most of us accept war as a video game now. The [thing] about the drone attacks, we see somebody in Omaha killing somebody in Baghdad or someplace, and we assume they’re accurate, we assume they know what they’re doing. That’s what Barack Obama did, right? He approved every one of those. What’s the reality on the ground?
DS: The reality on the ground is much different. It’s much more brutal, it’s much more of what you’d expect of a conventional war. I’ll give you one really good example that I think demonstrates this. During the, quote, surge in Iraq of 2007, when we put all these extra soldiers on the ground, and we flooded the neighborhoods, and we lived among the Iraqis, and we fought every day, and we received and dealt violence—you know, that was a George W. Bush thing. And many of us, like myself, were naive enough to believe that when a Democrat won—and I liked Obama at the time—that it would change. That we would no longer think that we can fix these societies, and unzip the American inside every Arab, or inside every Afghan–that that would change. But it did not. Because Barack Obama applied that very same model to Afghanistan, and we had ourselves a surge there. This was the Obama surge. And the reality is, the figures leading these surges didn’t change at all. Because Petraeus was the commander of both surges, at least after Stanley McChrystal was fired. So it’s the same folks doing the same things, going on the same inane patrols, trying to secure or pacify or win the hearts and minds–you pick. But it usually means use violence in order to convert them to our way of life, or whatever we perceive to be our way of life. And unlock the American inside each of them. So no, it didn’t change very much at all. Barack Obama’s surge in Afghanistan was equally as brutal and equally as wasteful as George W. Bush’s. And if we are to have another surge, and it’s the favorite tool now of generals, you can be sure that under Donald Trump, or Hillary Clinton, if she had won, it’ll be largely the same.
RS: So you—we haven’t talked much about Afghanistan. Iraq made no sense whatsoever. But the argument somehow, because we—9/11 had been launched at least logistically from Afghanistan, the planes that flew into the World Trade Center—that that was defensible. And we have an image—in order to do all this, the mannered style requires, you know, that the enemy be defined as thoroughly loathsome. Another Hitler, in the case of Saddam Hussein; the analogies have to be there so there’s no possibility of negotiation. The irony in Afghanistan, where you spent quite a bit of time in a very dangerous situation, is we’re actually now—Donald Trump, amazingly, is accepting, negotiating with the Taliban. Something that could have been done, you know, weeks after 9/11. I mean, you know, who are these Taliban? What was the—how did they get there, how did fanaticism come to Afghanistan, which was not a center of Islamic fanaticism? Mostly paid for by Saudi Arabia; 15 of the hijackers were traveling on legal papers from Saudi Arabia. You know, so suddenly—wait a minute, we can talk to the Taliban? You had a lot of familiarity. What was Afghanistan all about?
DS: Well, Afghanistan is, you know, what Barack Obama called the “good” war. Remember, he was selling us the idea during the campaign in 2007 and ’08, that there’s a bad war—the stupid war, in Iraq—and then there’s the good war, the one that we have to win. The reality is any chance of victory in Afghanistan was over the minute—and this only took weeks—the minute after we switched from a counterterrorism strategy, a surgical, law enforcement-type attack on the al-Qaida system—the minute we switched from that to nation-building, counterinsurgency and occupation, the war was already lost. And you’re right that it’s going to end—I promise you, it is going to end with a negotiated settlement, and the Taliban will still have their guns and will still be a force of essentially militiamen. And they might take over half the country, or maybe the whole thing. And you’re right that that could have, that negotiation could have been done from a position of more strength, mind you, in December of ’01, or in February of ’02. And we would have had the same thing. And you know, this happened in Vietnam as well; Richard Nixon prolongs the war for four or five years, and then he actually accepts terms that are about the same that were on offer from the North Vietnamese, you know, in January of 1969. Now, in the interim, I think the number, if I’m not mistaken, is 20,532 American soldiers died, more than a third of our casualties coming after it was no longer necessary, if it ever was. The same has happened in Afghanistan. In this case, 95 to 98% of the Americans who died, and an equal number of Afghans, who we often forget about, died after that moment when the war was no longer winnable. And the war will end with those same terms that would have been on offer, maybe even better terms would have been on offer when the Taliban had first been knocked out of power. And that’s the ultimate tragedy of this, is that everyone who died in the interim, that blood is very specifically on our hands.
RS: I want to end this on a point you may not agree with. But it’s I guess sort of the main, [Laughs] maybe the only significant—and I don’t know why I’m laughing, because I took some risks to learn this; I went to some dangerous areas. Not like you, for 18 years, but. And what came to me was an overwhelming sense of the stupidity of the very smart people who were in charge. Whether I was sitting at some high-ranking diplomat’s house; whether I was talking to a general who had also, not always had a Ph.D, but a good education. Basically, I was talking to people—Halberstam captured it with the title, “The Best and the Brightest”—who could present well. Again, manners; they weren’t buffoons, they were reasonable, and so forth. And yet, when I would have these conversations, it was informed by an idiocy, an unawareness. So, for example, in Vietnam, they would talk about the people, and I would say, “But the guy you put in power here–it wasn’t just ’69 they could have had peace.” They could have had peace with Ho Chi Minh after the Second World War, when he quoted the U.S. Declaration of Independence and was a nationalist who wanted—they could have had peace when he defeated the French. No! We picked a Roman Catholic from New York state, who was in a monastery in New York state, Vietnamese refugee, and we said he’s going to be the George Washington of his country. Ignoring the fact that the Catholics, who had been brought in by French colonial education, represented only 10% of the country. This is what Graham Greene wrote about. So, stupidity, you know. And then you look at the whole course of it, and a myth that somehow this is an extension of communism and China and—it wasn’t anything of the sort. We lose the war, and the Vietnamese communists and Chinese communists go to war with each other. OK? And now they’re going to war to fill the shelves of Costco or Walmart with different products. And something very similar happened in Iraq, happened in Afghanistan. It’s the same kind of, you know—we honor these leaders of our military as—and you taught at West Point. That’s why I’m putting the question to you. And you’re a very smart guy, you know, and yet, why don’t they learn from this? And my own explanation is because they’re not subject to a critical environment. And they’re not held accountable. And I’m bringing it back to Chelsea Manning and Julian Assange. When we get these documents, like the Pentagon Papers that Daniel Ellsberg released, we realize if they only read their own memos, if they only talked honestly to each other, they would know this. There wasn’t—everything they had to know was in the Pentagon Papers. Their own document. Right? And what we’ve learned from the WikiLeaks—if they would just have studied what Chelsea Manning, Bradley Manning released through Julian Assange, and just read those things—that were published in newspapers, Washington Post, The Guardian—they would have known, they would know how idiotic the whole enterprise is. So when you were brought back to West Point, and when you were sent by the Army to go get your doctorate, you’re an intelligent guy, you’ve paid your dues, they had you marked to be a general, you made it up to be a major. What happened when you tried to speak in reasonable terms to these fellow officers? And I know you just came from a conference a few weeks ago where there were some at least two-star generals, and important colonels. What is it like talking to them?
DS: You know, the best and the brightest have failed us again. And I’m glad that you used that term. The reality is that most of the general officers and most of the colonels are not in a critical environment; they’re not in an environment that, you know, wants dissent or wants critical thinking. I mean, they’re surrounded in a bubble by sycophants. I mean, that’s how they are raised up through the ranks in the Army; they don’t get a lot of criticism from above, below or laterally. It’s a very hierarchical structure. And it is stupidity. I mean, flat-out. The truncated nature of their thinking, I mean, it’s so narrow. And it is almost childish. I mean, their view of Islamism as the new communism, which is the new Nazism—I mean, that sort of thinking, it’s absolutely, it’s ludicrous. And yet it’s the, it’s the norm, right, it’s the consensus among the people that I served with, and among the policymakers, who are often worse, often more hawkish. You know, the “chicken hawks” like John Bolton. But they have failed you again, and they will fail you in the future. And there are very, very few critical-thinking officers who are able to get outside of that box and say, “The question isn’t are we doing this well, the question is should it be done at all—can it be done at all?” And if the answer is no, it’s time to speak up. And it’s time to give your military advice, and if necessary, resign.
RS: And, well, you’re no longer in the military. I don’t know where the next Danny Sjursen’s going to come from. But if you want to really have a sense of what it’s like to be on the ground in one of these wars that we treat as video games—and most of us, because we don’t have a draft, don’t really have to think about it, even though the country is being bankrupted by it. And we often commit genocide, war crimes and what have you. That’s what Julian Assange, for my money, revealed, and Bradley Manning. Check out the book, “Ghost Riders of Baghdad: Soldiers, Civilians, and the Myth of the Surge.” Because the surge is held up, and will be held up in Afghanistan and so forth, as the saving grace. And then people like Barack Obama were criticized because they didn’t have another surge, or didn’t do more killing on that level. And check it out. Danny Sjursen, I want to thank you for doing this. It’s—it’s just so, to me, so depressing that there’s like 15 truth-tellers that we’ve had about our wars, from Daniel Ellsberg up to Danny Sjursen. You got to ask yourself some tough questions about why we, the citizens of this modern Rome, with a great deal of freedom and a great deal of arrogance about our power as individuals, are letting the empire drag us into these disasters and ultimately destroy the republic. But that’s it for this edition of “Scheer Intelligence.” Our engineers at KCRW in Santa Monica are Mario Diaz and Kat Yore. Joshua Scheer is the producer of this show. And a special shout-out to Sebastian Grubaugh, the brilliant sound engineer here at the Annenberg School for Communication and Journalism, who holds this whole thing together. And you know, yes, we have General Petraeus on the faculty, but we also heard from [Major] Danny Sjursen, presenting a very different view than that of Petraeus. So let it go at that, see you next week.
Published:6/10/2019 11:12:57 PM
Doug Casey: Stupidity, Evil, & The Decline Of The US
(Today’s article is an adaptation from one of Doug’s speeches.)
It used to be that America was a country of free thinkers.
"Say what you think, and think what you say." That’s an expression you don't hear much anymore.
It’s much more like the world of 1984 where everything is “double think.” You need to think twice before you say something in public. You think three times before you say something when you're standing in an airport line.
Regrettably, the US is no longer the land of the free and the home of the brave. It’s become the land of whipped and whimpering dogs that roll over on their backs and wet themselves when confronted with authority.
Now, why are Americans this way? Let me give you two reasons - though there are many more.
First, there's a simple absence of virtue. Let’s look at the word virtue. It comes from the Latin vir, which means manly, even heroic. To the Romans, virtues were things like fortitude, nobility and courage. Those virtues are true to the root of the word.
When people think of virtues today they think of faith, hope, charity—which are not related to the word’s root meaning. These may pass as virtues in a religious sense. But, outside a Sunday school, they’re actually actually vices. This deserves a discussion, because I know it will shock many. But I’ll save that for another time.
An absence of virtues and the presence of subtle vices is insinuated throughout society. Worse, overt vices like avarice and especially envy are encouraged. Envy, in particular will become a big vice in the years to come. It’s similar to jealousy, but worse. Jealousy says “You have something I want; I’ll try to take it from you”. Envy says “You have something I want. If I can’t take it from you, I’ll destroy it, and hurt you if I can.” Jealousy and envy seem to motivate most Democratic Party presidential candidates. No wonder America is in rapid decline.
A second reason is unsound philosophy. The reigning philosophy in the US used to be based on individualism and personal freedom. It's now statism and collectivism. But most people don’t think about philosophy—or even have a consistent worldview. More than ever, they do what seems like a good idea at the time.
The average American has problems. But his rulers are something else again. Most of the people running the US are either knaves or fools. How do we know if we are dealing with a knave or a fool? In other words, are you dealing with somebody who is evil or just stupid? To give a recent, but classic, example, are you dealing with a Dick Cheney or a George W. Bush? Do you prefer the knavish Obama, or the knavish Biden? The foolish Trump, or the foolish Pence. Not much of a real choice anywhere…
At this point, the US resembles the planet Mars, which is circled by two moons, Phobos and Deimos, fear and terror in Greek. The US is also being circled by two moons, Kakos and Chazos, evil and stupidity in Greek. It’s hard to imagine the Founding Fathers having seen that as a possibility.
One of the relatively few laws I believe in is Pareto’s Law. Most people are familiar with it as the 80-20 rule—20% of the people do 80% of the work, 20% commit 80% of the crime, and so forth. It also applies to character and ethics. Most people—80%—are basically decent. What about that other 20%? Let's call them potential trouble sources because they can go either way. But 20% of that 20%—4%—are the sociopaths; they consistently have bad intentions. They’re usually hiding under rocks. But they like to emerge at election time.
In normal times when everything's going along well, they can look normal. They'll deliver the mail, or sell shoes or stocks. They’ll pet the dog, and play softball on weekends. But when circumstances in society get ugly, and reach a certain point, they start evidencing themselves. The rest of the 20% start swinging along with them. That's the place where we are right now in the US. It’s Pareto’s Law in operation. You can see it in basically all the Democratic Party’s candidates—Bernie, Pocahontas, AOC, and two dozen others.
A lot of people believe in American Exceptionalism. A good argument can be made for America having been exceptional in the past. It’s factually correct that America is the only country founded on the principles of individualism and personal freedom. It was actually different. It was special, even unique. But I don't think it's true anymore.
Of course all the world’s countries like to believe they're special or better than the rest. But they’re only different on the surface, in trivial ways. None—other than America—value individualism and personal freedom as founding virtues. Look at Russia throughout the 20th century. It was a phenomenal nightmarish disaster in Soviet times.
Look at Germany during the ‘30s and ‘40s. China, under Mao for 30 years, was the home of institutionalized, industrial scale mass murder. The same is true in lots of other countries… Cambodia, Rwanda, the Congo. There are dozens of other countries where bloody chaos reigned over the last century. But not the US. It was different.
But what if America has ceased to exist? What if it’s been transformed into just another nation state called the United States, with very different ideals and values? Why should it have a different fate than those other countries? I don't see any reason why that would be the case.
But if 80% of Americans are basically decent, well-intentioned people, what is going wrong and why?
Let me give you three reasons... although there are many others.
Number one, as I indicated earlier, Americans no longer have any philosophical anchor. They no longer share a national mythos—individualism, personal freedom, free minds, and free markets are now mocked. They may have some nebulous ideas about ethics that they picked up from the Boy Scouts. But they think all political and economic systems—and certainly all cultures—are equally good. The reigning philosophy is a mixture of cultural Marxism, identity politics, anti-male feminism, and anti-white racism.
I suppose it was inevitable in a country where a large plurality of people are dumb enough to spend four years and several hundred thousand dollars to be indoctrinated with those values.
The second thing is fear. It’s a reigning emotion in this country among the diminishing middle class.
Desperation and apathy characterize the growing lower classes. No wonder they're cemented to the bottom of society. It's a rare person that rises from the lower class because of those attitudes.
How about the upper classes? Their dominant emotions are avarice and arrogance; they think they're superior because they have more money. In many cases they’re rich not because they produce anything. But because they’re cronies, benefiting from the flood of money coming from the Fed, or the avalanche of laws and regulations coming from the Congress and the President.
America is still basically a middle-class country, although becoming less and less that way almost daily. And fear is the dominant emotion of the middle class. Fear of losing everything they have. Fear of losing their jobs. Fear they won’t be able to meet the credit card payments, the car payments, the mortgage payment. Fear they can't afford to send their kids to college—which is a mistake incidentally. But that’s another story.
The whole country is driven by fear… and it’s not a good thing. Deimos and Phobos, those two moons circling Mars are now circling the US, along with Kakos and Chazos.
The third, and perhaps most critical reason the US is going downhill—beyond a lack of a philosophical anchor and an atmosphere of fear—is a reflexive belief in government.
The United States used to be more like Switzerland, which is by far the most prosperous country in Europe. When you ask the Swiss, "Who's the president of Switzerland?", It's rare that anyone can tell you. It's academic. However, nobody cares. He doesn't do anything. Politics aren’t a big part of their lives.
But today in the US, people have come to view the government as a cornucopia. People expect it to solve all their problems. And that’s a real problem. Government is a genuine growth industry, and it attracts the worst type of people. Government is inevitably where sociopaths—the 4% and the 20%—are drawn. Washington draws sociopaths like a pile of dog droppings draws flies.
It's perfectly predictable. And why is that? Mao said it best, "The power of the state comes out the barrel of a gun." Government is about some people controlling other people. That's what attracts sociopaths, and that's why they go to Washington.
But enough bad news… what is it that makes things better in the world? Well, there are two things.
One is technology. The good news is there are more scientists and engineers alive today than have lived in all of earth's history previously combined. And they're continually increasing our control of nature. For most people, life is no longer “solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short”, as Hobbes said. Technology is advancing at the rate of Moore’s law. And that improves the standard of living.
The second thing is savings. Individuals, like squirrels, are genetically wired to produce more than they consume. The difference between production and consumption can be saved. That creates capital. And capital enables technology. That creation of wealth should continue, barring a world war. Or most of the world’s governments acting more like Venezuela or Zimbabwe…. Which is quite possible.
So, in conclusion, I have some good news, and some bad news.
In the looming Greater Depression, most of the real wealth in the world will still exist. It's just going to change ownership.
Hopefully, you’ll be among those who aren’t adversely affected.
* * *
Unfortunately most people have no idea what really happens when a government goes out of control, let alone how to prepare… The coming economic and political crisis is going to be much worse, much longer, and very different than what we’ve seen in the past. That’s exactly why New York Times best-selling author Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video. Click here to watch it now.
Published:6/9/2019 8:37:55 PM
Doug Casey On What Happens After The Next War
International Man: The US government is actively at war in about half a dozen countries. It’s eyeing new conflicts all the time.
On the topic of getting involved in another war… President Trump was reported to have said this about his National Security Advisor John Bolton: “If it was up to John, we'd be in four wars now.”
What do you make of all this?
Doug Casey: Where to start?
Well, first of all, things are out of control. The US Government has become so big, so dysfunctional, and with its fingers in so many pies that anything can happen, unpredictably. Secondly, it’s extremely dangerous. Prodding lots of hornet’s nests guarantees you’ll be stung—perhaps enough to put you in the hospital. Third, it’s extraordinarily expensive. And the US Government is already bankrupt.
As you pointed out, the US is actively at war in right now in who knows how many countries - including at least a half a dozen in Africa that nobody can find on a map. There are combat troops in probably 100 countries around the world. There are probably 800 bases around the world. These things are all just trip wires waiting for an accident or an incident to draw the country into a real war. So far—at least since the misadventure in Vietnam - the US has just engaged in trouble-making exercises and sport wars. But the big thing on the horizon right now is Iran. This is hunting big game.
One of the things that I most regret not having done in recent years was taking advantage of an all-expense paid junket, courtesy of the Iranian Ambassadors’ Polo Club, for the New Zealand Ambassadors’ Polo Club, of which I was member. It would have been wonderful to have seen three of the major Iranian cities and met some of the top people in the country while playing polo. I couldn’t do it though, because I was injured at the time.
The Iranian people have no negative animus towards the American people. The average Iranian likes the average American. He likes American cars, American music, American movies, American culture. He likes California girls. He likes everything about America.
The way to change that and turn the average Iranian into an enemy is to send uniformed American teenagers there to destroy property and kill people. That’s exactly what morons like John Bolton and Mike Pompeo are talking about. It could be a real catastrophe, because Iran is big game. It's not like hunting small game, like Iraq, Afghanistan and Syria—which themselves were terrible catastrophes.
If this gets out of control - accidentally, or through a false flag incident, or simply because Bolton decides it’s a good idea - you could be looking at the start of World War III.
The “powers that be” think that war stimulates the economy. But the idea is complete nonsense. These fools actually believe turning lots of cities into smoking ruins would stimulate the economy.
International Man: The US government and mainstream media often justify these wars on the need to “spread democracy.” What do you make of that?
Doug Casey: The idea of spreading democracy is a snare and a delusion. Democracy has become the new societal god. In fact—and I know most readers will be appalled to hear this—democracy is a bad idea. At least for anything larger than a city-state with a small, cohesive population.
First of all, democracy is simply mob rule dressed up in a coat and tie. It’s where a bunch of people—who are marginally competent at running their own individual lives—go to a voting booth to have what H.L. Mencken termed “an advance auction on stolen goods.” Democracy usually winds up turning the State into a vehicle for theft, and making that seem like a good and moral thing...
Democracy—a gentler form of mob rule—is not a good thing. It politicizes the average person and distracts him from running his own life. It focuses his attention on trying to run other people’s lives through elected representatives. Worse, the elected representatives aren’t the best and the brightest. They’re generally sociopaths who are drawn to power. They’re the worst kind of people, the kind that want to rule other people by winning a popularity contest. This is true in the US and every other place where ballot boxes are used to determine the new ruler.
The winner of an election is typically the most skilled liar. Look at what president Wilson did by pointlessly drawing the US into WWI, while claiming to do the opposite. He said it was all about making the world safe for democracy. In fact, he initiated the long decline of Western Civilization. The French Revolution was based on democracy. It didn’t work out very well. It had a lot to do with democracy—but had nothing to do with freedom. Democracy and freedom are typically at odds with each other.
International Man: Aside from the claim of promoting democracy, the US government and mainstream media also use alleged human rights abuses as a justification for war. The term “human rights” seems to be vaguely defined and inconsistently applied. It seems like more sophistry. What’s really going on here?
Doug Casey: Let me first say, the most important “human right” is simply to be left alone by other people, to be left in peace. Whenever a government gets involved in people’s private affairs it makes things worse. The US government is actually the greatest danger to both world peace and human rights today. It’s quite Orwellian the way most Americans have been propagandized into believing the opposite, like the citizens of Oceania in 1984.
The best thing to do with foreign countries is leave them alone to work things out themselves. You cannot change a culture. When you try to change a culture, you generally wind up with chaos. That’s what the US government has created in Syria, Afghanistan, Libya, Iraq, and everywhere else it sticks its nose.
International Man: So, do these wars provide a net benefit to the average American?
Doug Casey: No. There’s no benefit at all. The correct U.S. foreign policy is to withdraw all the troops from everywhere in the world. Foreigners don’t want to see American troops on their land any more than Americans would like to see Iranian, or African, or Korean troops parading through the streets and maybe breaking down doors at 3:00 AM. That’s the first thing. If you want to “support the troops” bring all the troops home.
The next step is to cut off all foreign aid, which is really just a transfer program of about $50 billion per year from poor people in the US to rich people in poor countries. It’s almost all skimmed by cronies.
People forget that Osama bin Laden said that he only wanted three things.
First, he wanted infidel soldiers out of the homeland of the prophet, a reasonable request.
Second, he wanted the US to stop replacing Middle Eastern leaders with quislings, and interfering with local politics. Another reasonable request. The US has no more right to interfere in the politics of Middle Eastern countries than Mohammedans would interfering in US politics.
Third, he wanted the US to stop supporting Israel. Once again, a very reasonable request. We should be friendly towards all, but shouldn’t get involved in other people’s local squabbles, regardless of who we think is the good guy or the bad guy at the moment.
Of course, my saying something Osama bin Laden said was reasonable is like saying something that Hitler said was reasonable. But it doesn’t matter who says something. The facts should speak for themselves. And—just to head off hysterics—no, I neither like nor support either Osama or Adolf.
International Man: US foreign policy has serious domestic consequences. After all, “War is the health of the State" as Randolph Bourne said.
Specifically, the rapid rise of the domestic surveillance apparatus, the curtailments of civil liberties, and the turbocharging of militarized local police forces… they’re all connected to US foreign policy.
Related to all this is the inane expression “if you have nothing to hide, you have nothing to fear.” What do you make of all of this?
Doug Casey: Well, if that’s true then John Bolton, Mike Pompeo, and the rest of the apparatchiks around the DC Beltway should be happy to post their tax returns on the internet, and have microphones and cameras in every room of their houses. They ought to be perfectly happy when they’re having a private conversation in their living room to have it available to anybody that wants to listen.
The ability to maintain privacy is one thing that separates civilized men from primitives living in mud huts. In a primitive society you have zero privacy, because your neighbors can see and hear absolutely everything that goes on through the paper-thin walls of your hut. Privacy is something that grows with civilization. These people have everything exactly backwards. They’re not just anti-freedom. They’re anti-civilization. They’re the same basic personality type as Stalin, or Ceausescu, or Pol Pot.
International Man: Another arena that has been drastically affected is the airports and the creation of a new federal bureaucracy, the TSA. Thanks to the TSA, everyone knows that “if you see something say something.” That saying is actually a registered trademark of the Department of Homeland Security.
Doug Casey: It's Orwellian. It's the type of thing Big Brother would advise you to do… to report your neighbors to the State for any real or imagined offense.
One time I was in a line that was snaking back and forth at immigration. My briefcase weighed about 25 pounds, so I put it down and left it for about 15 feet so I could pick it up when the line snaked back.
Not once, but twice, somebody looked around like a righteous busybody citizen and said, "Unattended baggage! Unattended baggage!"
These people are really just chimpanzees. They picked up this behavior from the government… monkey see, monkey do. I said to them sarcastically "See something, say something", but they didn't think I was kidding. They thought I approved of what they were doing.
International Man: Do you see this degraded behavior in other places?
Doug Casey: Of all the countries in the world that I’ve traveled to—including backwards hell holes in Africa, Russia, China, it doesn’t matter—going through the US immigration, customs, and TSA, probably provides the most degrading experience. None of these other countries ask you the kinds of questions or seem so anxious to go through your laundry. Although Canada and Australia in particular are closely following the US lead.
The average American has been propagandized into thinking that he lives in the land of the free. As a matter of fact, that’s no longer true.
The US has descended from being a shining beacon—that really was exceptional and different from every other country in the world—to being just another nation state. But, perversely, one that thinks it’s still exceptional. It’s paranoid. It thinks it’s under attack, when actually it’s the attacker.
The whole thing is upside-down, and the average American has absolutely no clue.
It's really shameful that the US has turned into both a welfare state—with about 50% of the population reliant upon the government—and a warfare state. We’re getting the worst of both worlds.
The problem is that when the economy turns down—and it will before Trump leaves office—it’s going to go from being depressing to scary. And if they start a major war, it’s going to go all the way to terrifying, because at that point you won’t have any rights. The average American will approve of it, however. Your life and property are be
* * *
Many people don’t realize that the US is on the precipice of a major war in the Middle East. It’s a conflict that could see oil prices skyrocket overnight… and the return of gas lines to America. It wouldn’t be the first or even second time an oil shock like this has happened. It would have profound economic consequences.
This is one reason why a financial crisis far greater than any crisis America has seen could soon strike. For some it could completely wipe out their savings… and for others it could be the fortune-building opportunity of a lifetime. Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video on surviving and thriving during an economic collapse. Click here to watch it now.
Published:6/8/2019 8:00:43 PM
‘Racy’ Casey Anthony biopic reportedly in the works
Casey Anthony, the Florida woman acquitted in 2011 of killing her daughter, is reportedly working on an autobiographical film that will tell her side of the story.
Published:6/6/2019 11:13:45 PM
Security startup Bugcrowd on crowdsourcing bug bounties: ‘Cybersecurity is a people problem’
For a cybersecurity company, Bugcrowd relies much more on people than it does on technology. For as long as humans are writing software, developers and programmers are going to make mistakes, said Casey Ellis, the company’s founder and chief technology officer in an interview TechCrunch from his San Francisco headquarters. “Cybersecurity is fundamentally a people […]
Published:5/31/2019 10:03:35 AM
Eliminating Free Speech The Smart Way
Authored by Jeff Thomas via InternationalMan.com,
Left-wing activists have recently been increasingly active in seeking to limit opposing political viewpoints, in order to create a more ubiquitous “groupthink.” One effort in accomplishing this has been to propose the creation of a “Human Rights Committee” in order to monitor the economic transactions of “white supremacist groups and anti-Islam activists.”
This should not be surprising, as, throughout the former Free World, collectivists are, increasingly, coming out of the closet and seeking to eliminate any and all opposition to their cause.
And this should not, in itself, be alarming, as it should be both predictable and understandable that any politically driven group, be it left-leaning or right-leaning, would seek to gain an advantage over its opposite number.
What may be a real cause for alarm, however, is that those whom they are trying to rope into their effort are banks and corporations… and that they’re succeeding without a shot being fired.
It might be hoped that those champions of industry and commerce would at least put up a perfunctory fight, but clearly, this is not the case. They’re not only caving in; they’re entirely on board.
As an example, MasterCard is considering the selective restriction of individuals from their services and funds. Those individuals would be the ones that held unacceptable political views.
But they’re not the first in the queue to economically force people to have “correct” views. PayPal and Patreon have barred selected individuals from receiving payments through their services when those individuals have been identified as holding “extreme views.” More alarmingly, they’ve been supported in this decision by the US Securities and Exchange Commission.
Journalist Ben Swann has commented that this means that the US government has granted “big corporations the ability to control what voices are heard.”
The reader will already be familiar with the fact that major corporations that are led by liberally aligned executives, such as Facebook, Twitter and Amazon, have already proudly stated that they wish to do their part to freeze out those whose opinions they disagree with.
Of course, in a free world, the head of a privately held corporation should be free to do business with only those individuals he approves of. Although that might make him discriminating, he should have the right to be discriminating.
The concern here, though, is that there’s nothing on the horizon that’s aimed at limiting collectivist notions. All the restrictions are being applied to those who are conservative, libertarian, or in fact, anything but collectivist.
There’s clearly an all-encompassing effort to not only silence non-collectivists in the media (including social media), but to silence them through the loss of economic freedom.
And the campaign is unfolding dramatically, on many fronts, at the same time. It would not be rash to suggest that, by 2020, it may not be safe for an individual to express any non-collectivist position by that time, for fear of being cut out of the economic structure.
Back in the early part of the twentieth century, the Bolsheviks did a wonderful job of eliminating the existence of views that opposed collectivism, through the use of concentration camps and execution. Later in the century, the Nazi (abbreviation for Nationalsozialistische, or National Socialist Party) also did a bang-up job of disappearing dissent against their rhetoric.
But Lenin, Stalin, Hitler and Goebbels would all have their hats off to the new American version of collectivist propaganda, which is not only attacking freedom of speech in the media, but using economic warfare to ensure that, in the future, the only propaganda will be collectivist propaganda.
This is a tactic these past collectivist leaders would have envied, as the results of economic pressure can be so immediate and permanent.
And clearly, large banks, corporations and the US government are fully on board.
This latter fact informs us that the move to a collectivist society in the US is not merely the work of some extremist groups; it is, indeed, the intended “New America.”
One hundred years ago, the US began a decline into corporatism, with the introduction of the Federal Reserve as the overlord of US banking. Since that time, there has been a steady decline in freedoms in the US, interrupted only by the capitalist boom years that were brought on by World War II.
And we now see the culmination of that long-sought-after objective. The American public are not only being phased into the fuller conversion to a collectivist society; they’re being forced into it through economic punishment, should they take any other view.
There can be no question that virtually all of the restrictions of free speech are intended to limit any thought other than collectivist thought.
But the more important take-away here is that this is not a mere ploy by a political group. It has the support of the financial industry, corporate America and the government (through the US Securities and Exchange Commission).
This tells us that the Deep State – that collective body that actually rules the US above the political structure – is on board for a conversion of the US into a fully collectivist state.
This objective should not be surprising, as rulers always wish, first and foremost, to rule. And as such, they will always seek to obtain total control, if possible. Collectivism is the key to that goal. The greater the degree of collectivism, the greater the level of totalitarianism.
In limiting free speech through economics, they’re now going about it the smart way. But this in itself should not be too surprising. What may be surprising is that the changes necessary to bring that about are happening so quickly.
For the US, this is much like Russia, circa 1917, or Germany, circa 1937. The question is no longer whether the government intends to institute totalitarianism. The question is how much time remains before the transition is complete.
This question should give us pause. Its answer would define the remaining shelf-life of the US, as a country that’s desirable as a place to reside.
* * *
The wave of political correctness and liberal group-think has taken the US by storm. The effort to silence opposing viewpoints and free speech will continue to accelerate. That’s why Doug Casey has prepared a timely video on surviving this modern American trend. In it Doug exposes the lies and mainstream bias that’s poisoning America… Click here to watch it now.
Published:5/28/2019 10:48:50 PM
Doug Casey: "This Is Going To Be One For The Record Books"
Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,
Just because society experiences turmoil doesn't mean your personal life has to. And a depression doesn't have to be depressing. Most of the real wealth in the world will still exist - it will just change ownership.
What is a depression?
We’re now at the tail end of a very long, but in many ways a very weak and artificial, economic expansion. At the same time we’ve had one of the strongest securities bull markets in history. Both are the result of trillions of new dollars created over the last decade. Right now very few people are willing to consider the possibility of tough times—let alone The Greater Depression.
But, perverse though it may seem, this is the very best time to think about it. The U.S. economy is a house of cards, built on quicksand, with a tsunami on the way. I urge everyone to read up on the topic. For now, I'll only briefly touch on the nature of depressions. There are at least three good definitions of the term:
A period of time when most people's standard of living drops significantly.
A period of time when distortions and misallocations of capital are liquidated.
A period of time when the business cycle climaxes.
Using the first definition, any natural disaster can cause a depression. So can living above your means for long enough. But the worst kind of depression has not just economic effects, but economic causes. That's where definitions 2 and 3 come in.
What can cause distortions in the way the market operates, causing people to do things they'd otherwise consider unreasonable or uneconomic? Only government action, i.e., coercion. This takes the form of regulation, taxes, and currency inflation.
Always under noble pretexts, government is constantly directly and indirectly inducing people to buy and sell things they otherwise wouldn't, to do things they'd prefer not to, and to invest in things that make no sense.
These misallocations of capital subtly reduce a society's general standard of living, but the serious trouble happens when such misallocations build up to an unsustainable degree and reality forces them into liquidation. The result is bankrupted companies, defaulted debt, and unemployed workers.
The business cycle is caused mainly by currency inflation, which is accomplished today by the monetization of government debt through the banking system; essentially, when the government runs a deficit, the Federal Reserve buys its debt, and credits the government’s account at a commercial bank with dollars. Using the printing press to create new money is largely passé in today's electronic world.
Either way, inflation sends false signals to businessmen (especially those who get the money early on, as it filters through the economy), making them overestimate demand for their products. That causes them to hire more workers and make capital investments—often with borrowed money. This is called "stimulating the economy."
Inflating the currency can actually drive down interest rates for a while, because the price of money (interest) is lowered by the increased supply of money. This causes people to save less and borrow more, just as Americans have been doing for years. A lot of that newly created money goes into the stock market, driving it higher.
It all looks pretty good, until retail prices start rising as a delayed consequence of the increased money supply, and interest rates skyrocket to reflect the depreciation of the currency.
That's when businesses start failing. Stocks fall. Bond prices collapse. Large numbers of workers lose employment.
Rather than let the market adjust itself, government typically starts the process all over again with a new and larger "stimulus package." The more often this happens, the more ingrained become the distortions in the way people consume and invest, and the nastier the eventual depression.
This is why I predict the Greater Depression will be ... well ... greater. This is going to be one for the record books. Much different, much longer lasting, and much worse than the unpleasantness of 1929-1946.
* * *
A financial depression far greater than any crisis America has seen could soon strike. For some it could completely wipe out their savings… and for others it could be the fortune-building opportunity of a lifetime. Doug Casey and his team just released an urgent video on surviving and thriving during an economic collapse. Click here to watch it now.
Published:5/25/2019 8:31:02 PM
Sorry, Game of Thrones Fans! It Looks Like Arya Stark Isn't Getting a Spinoff
Winter is coming...but not for Arya Stark.
In an interview with The Hollywood Reporter published Tuesday, HBO programming president Casey Bloys shot down rumors the Game of Thrones fan...
Published:5/22/2019 7:39:36 AM
'Sorry, Game of Thrones' fans: HBO chief shoots down Arya Stark sequel idea
"Nope, nope, nope," HBO chief Casey Bloys told The Hollywood Reporter, dashing fan's hopes of getting a spinoff about Arya Stark's next adventure.
Published:5/22/2019 7:09:36 AM
Supreme Court May Give Monday Hint On Abortion Agenda
While Alabama's controversial new abortion ban may take years to reach the Supreme Court, two less sweeping abortion disputes from Indiana may provide clues as to how the Justices might rule on the matter, according to Bloomberg.
In one case, Indiana wants to ban abortions motivated by the risk of a genetic disorder and require that clinics bury or cremate fetal remains. The other bill would require than an ultrasound be performed at least 18 hours before an abortion. It will be up to the Supreme Court to take the case or not - as four votes are needed to accept it.
The appeals are the first in a growing list of cases revealing how the court's conservative justices - in particular Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Brett Kavanaugh - will come down on the topic. If the appeal is accepted, it would mean that in all likelihood either Roberts or Kavanaugh would have to join with the three most conservative justices to grant review, according to the report.
When asked during his confirmation process last August, Kavanaugh told Sen. Susan Collins (R-Maine) that he believes the 1973 Roe v. Wade is "settled law," suggesting he may not vote to overturn it if confirmed.
Any case granted review in the coming weeks would be heard in the term that starts in October and be decided in the thick of the 2020 election campaign, when President Donald Trump will be seeking a second term. Restricting abortions is a top policy goal for the conservative and evangelical voters who helped elect Trump, and the president’s authority to nominate Supreme Court justices has proven to be a potent political motivator for Republicans.
The always-heated abortion debate took on additional urgency this month in response to laws passed at the state level. Georgia banned the procedure once a fetal heartbeat can be detected, something that can occur before a woman knows she is pregnant. Then Alabama made abortion a felony in almost all cases with a law designed to prod the Supreme Court to overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade decision. -Bloomberg
2020 Democratic candidates have begun to use the issue to rally their base for a fight over what they describe as a fundamental reproductive right. And while some Congressional Republicans have shown support for Alabama's law - the strongest abortion legislation in the country, others such as House Republican leader Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) say it goes too far because it does not provide exceptions for victims of rape or incest.
Justice Stephen Breyer said last week that judges shouldn't reverse precedents simply because they do not agree with them. The liberal judge last week dissented from a Supreme Court ruling that overturned a 40-year-old precedent involving sovereign immunity.
"The law can retain the necessary stability only if this court resists that temptation, overruling prior precedent only when the circumstances demand it," wrote Breyer, adding "Today’s decision can only cause one to wonder which cases the court will overrule next."
Should the USSC reject the abortion-linked appeals, one or more of the justices could publicly dissent, or issue an opinion that would indicate what sort of discussions are going on behind the scenes.
An opinion may already be in the works in the case over fetal disposal and genetic disorders. Indiana’s appeal first appeared on the agenda for the justices’ private conference in January. It has been held over for 13 subsequent conferences since then, suggesting an unusual amount of internal wrangling.
Indiana argues that the fetal-disposal provision is consistent with the 1992 Planned Parenthood v. Casey decision, which upheld the fundamental right to abortion but said states have an interest in protecting the life of the fetus after viability.
“These interests arise because a human fetus alone has the potential to become a unique and independent human person,” the state said in court papers. “The same concern for the dignity of what was once a human life underlies the Fetal Disposition Provision.”
In striking down the fetal-disposal rule, a Chicago-based federal appeals court said it has “no rational relation to a legitimate state interest.” -Bloomberg
As Bloomberg notes, Indiana's provision to ban abortions due to genetic disorders touches more directly on the core right to abortion - as it outlaws abortions based on a fetus's race, gender or risk of genetic disorder such as Down syndrome. The state says they enacted the provision in response to "the alarming trend of disability-selective abortions."
The appeals court said that the selective-abortion appeal would "violate well-established Supreme Court precedent holding that a woman may terminate her pregnancy prior to viability."
As for the 18-hour ultrasound requirement, Indiana lawmakers argued that forcing a mother to absorb information about a fetus's development and alternatives to abortion "informs a woman’s abortion choice and affords her the opportunity to reflect on the information conveyed." A federal appeals court, however, ruled that the law "places a large barrier to access without any evidence that it serves the intended goal of persuading women to carry a pregnancy to term."
The Supreme Court may also soon act on another Alabama law - with the state asking the Justices to revive a law that would effectively ban the "dilation and evacuation" method of aborting a fetus - in which it is dismembered and then removed from the uterus. Opponents say it would eliminate access to abortion after the 15th week of pregnancy.
The most likely candidate for Supreme Court review ultimately might be a Louisiana case that the four liberal justices could vote to grant. Louisiana is trying to require doctors performing abortions to have admitting privileges at a nearby hospital. A federal appeals court upheld the state’s measure, even though the Supreme Court struck down a nearly identical Texas law in 2016.
In February, Roberts joined the liberals in a five-justice majority to put the law on hold while the court considers taking up an appeal by clinics and doctors. Roberts gave no explanation but his vote reinforced suspicions he is inclined to move slowly on abortion. The court won’t say until at least this fall whether it will hear the case. -Bloomberg
Kavanaugh voted for the law, but said that doctors would have had another 45 days to try and secure the necessary privileges. He also said that he wasn't in a rush to take the case, but that the majority "presumably" would vote to hear it in the next term.
Published:5/20/2019 9:08:37 AM
China State Run Media Broadcasts Anti-American Movies To Millions Amid Deepening Trade War
With the trade war between the US and China suddenly erupting after a 5-month ceasefire, CCTV 6, the movie channel of China's leading state television broadcaster, aired three anti-American movies last week, reported What's On Weibo.
The three movies are Korean war films: Heroic Sons and Daughters (1964), Battle on Shangganling Mountain (1954), and Surprise Attack (1960), which aired about one week after President Trump raised an existing 10% tariff on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods to 25%.
All last week, anti-American propaganda flourished across the country, with the slogan "Wanna talk? Let's talk. Wanna fight? Let's do it. Wanna bully us? Dream on!" going viral on Chinese social media platforms.
CCTV 6 broadcasted the movies to 500 million people in 23 provinces. The films fall under a category called "Resist America, Help North Korea," first debuting at the end of the Korean War (1950-1953).
The first movie is Battle on Shangganling Mountain, also translated as Battle of Shangganling. It depicts a group of Chinese soldiers who are fighting against American soldiers on Triangle Hill.
The second movie is Heroic Sons and Daughters tells the story of a political commissar in China's Army runs into his lost son and daughter in North Korea during the Korean War. The movie shows how China and North Korea were battle buddies against the Americans.
The third movie is Surprise Attack revolves around a special operation by Chinese soldiers to blow up Kangping Bridge, severing American weapon supply chains and allowing the Chinese to attack.
CCTV changing its original programming to three anti-American films became a popular discussion over the weekend on Chinese social media, with many people across all provinces praising CCTV6 for showing these movies.
However, some Chinese said: "It seems that there are no new anti-American TV series or movies now, so they've come up with these old films to brainwash us." Others said: "This kind of brainwashing is not useful."
Weibo users appreciated these classic anti-American flicks, saying "They don't make movies like this anymore," and "It's good for the younger generation to also see these classics."
China's government broadcasting anti-American movies to hundreds of millions of its people shows how officials are starting up the propaganda machines ahead of a potential armed conflict with the US. Because no one wins in a trade war, tensions between both countries will continue to increase and could eventually lead to a shooting war in the South China Sea.
China is the major rising power challenging America's global empire, this destructive pattern of structural stress is called Thucydides's Trap. This phenomenon goes back to the Peloponnesian War that devastated ancient Greece, the historian Thucydides explained: "It was the rise of Athens and the fear that this instilled in Sparta that made war inevitable."
History is playing out before our eyes, and war is inevitable if trade tensions continue to increase, this latest piece we share with our readers shows that China is starting to condition their citizens ahead of potential conflict, and just in case you thought that was 'conspiracy theory' fearmongery, here is China's (un)official mouthpiece twitter voice confirming the war-conditioning just this morning...
The message seems pretty clear: "Enlightenment from this film to Chinese:there's no equal negotiation without fighting."
Published:5/19/2019 10:31:29 AM
Doug Casey: Not Just A Trade War, But A Shooting War With China Seems Inevitable
Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,
The Chinese came from nothing; only 40 years ago, they had nothing but a billion impoverished peasants. No money. No technology. No power. Today, they’re on par with the United States. But, if this trend continues – which it will – their economy will be triple the size of the US economy in 20 years.
Not just a trade war, but a shooting war with the Chinese seems inevitable. Because when tensions build up between states they eventually fight with each other. China is the major rising power. It’s got four times the US population, it’s soon going to be more economically powerful, and it’s going to reach military parity. It’s of a different culture than the US. The US government may figure it’s best to take them out while the balance still favors them. It’s a bit like the situation was with the USSR in the ’80s. They could see they were going into decline, and some Soviet generals figured it was “now or never” for a successful war. Fortunately they collapsed first.
The Chinese don’t like seeing US aircraft carriers off their coast any more than we would like to see Chinese aircraft carriers in the Gulf of Mexico or off Santa Catalina Island.
The last thing that we need is a war with the Chinese. But if something that’s been called the Thucydides Trap is valid – and I think it is – then it’s highly likely. It refers to the Peloponnesian War between Athens and Sparta, at the end of 5th century BC. The Trap is sprung when a reigning power strikes out at the advancing power while they still have a chance of winning.
The American military thinks that a shooting war is inevitable. And it probably is. Why? Well, 5,000 years of history teaches us that it’s better to start a war when you’re more powerful than your enemy rather than wait until they’re more powerful than you. It’s always been this way. The Golden Rule of statecraft is: Do unto others – but do it first. It’s a very dangerous situation.
The US may do something stupid, like fabricate an incident, and launch a preemptive strike against China. Or perhaps things just get out of control, as they did in World War I.
It would make about as much sense as the Peloponnesian War, or World War I. But these things can take on a life of their own.
The wars between European powers were bad enough. But when the US fought Japan it actually turned into a race war. What happened in the Pacific was far uglier than what happened in Europe. There were basically no prisoners taken.
The next big war – as opposed to a sport war, like those in the Middle East – is likely to be with China. That could make World War II look trivial by comparison.
The Next Financial Crisis Will Be “The Big One”
Nobody has a crystal ball, but I think you can see the dominos lining up. Will this be the big one, or will it just be another recession – an inconvenience, followed by even bigger bubbles? It’s a question of odds. And the more dominos that lineup – the political, economic, social, demographic, military, and cultural dominos – the more logical that this next one is going to be much bigger than what happened in 2008.
That’s why I use the analogy of 2007-2010 being the leading edge of this hurricane. We’ve had a very big eye of the storm because of absolutely massive money printing by central banks all over the world. It’s had the effect of throwing oil on the water.
When we go into the trailing edge of this hurricane, it’s going to be much worse, much different, and much longer lasting than the unpleasantness of 2007-2010. Why? Because that was caused by inflation and debt. We’ve had vastly more of that over the last decade to paper over the problems. I think we’re re-entering the hurricane now.
But there’s always some good news. Here the good news is that most of the real wealth in the world – skills, technologies, buildings, things of that nature – won’t disappear just because the economy collapses. Most of the real wealth will still be here. It’s just going to change ownership.
I look forward to moments of crisis – assuming that the system itself is maintained in more or less its present form. In other words, it’s possible to look forward to a financial crisis, if you can position yourself to weather it. Financial crises come and go. It’s possible to position yourself to profit from a financial crisis.
I’m not, however, looking forward to an economic crisis, or a political crisis. Those can have major consequences. And I’m absolutely not looking forward to a cultural crisis, which is by far the most serious kind. Unfortunately, that is what we’re facing at this point.
Let’s just hope that what’s coming this time, over the next few years, is limited to a financial crisis. But I don’t expect that’s the case. I think it’s going to be economic, political, and cultural as well.
* * *
If the trade war between China and the US turns into a shooting war, a complete economic collapse is sure to follow. That’s why we’re sharing our field guide to Surviving and Thriving During an Economic Collapse. Click here to download your free PDF copy now.
Published:5/18/2019 5:27:58 PM
Brace Yourself: The Next Epic Collapse Could Be Weeks Away
Authored by Nick Giambruno, chief analyst, The Casey Report,
There wasn’t a group of people more wrong about the 2008 financial crisis than those at the Federal Reserve.
Mere months before the disaster hit in earnest, the nation’s highest economic and financial officials were vocal that there was nothing to worry about.
Most memorable of these are perhaps two comments from former Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke…
In January 2008, he said, “The Federal Reserve is not currently forecasting a recession.”
And later that year, in July, he said Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac – the two government-sponsored enterprises that kicked off the credit crisis a few months later – were “in no danger of failing.”
And it wasn’t just Bernanke. The same delusional sentiment was echoed by almost all the top Fed and Treasury officials… as well as those in the mainstream financial media and academia.
Of course, we all know how things played out…
When the housing bubble burst in 2008, the effects rippled throughout the economy, kicking off the largest financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression.
And the S&P 500 – a good proxy for the U.S. stock market – went on to fall by over 56%.
The reason I’m telling you this today is to remind you that people exhibit laughable sentiments near the peak of bull markets.
And today, we’re hearing much of the same sentiment that was displayed before the 2008 crisis.
But as you’ll see below, it’s not the only sign I’m seeing of a coming crisis…
A Contrarian Indicator
I’ve written before about why I believe we’re near the peak of the largest bubble in human history.
And as I’m about to show you, there are clear indicators of a coming crisis… in the auto sector… the housing sector… and in the economy as a whole.
Despite this, Fed Chairman Jerome Powell recently said, “I don’t see a recession [in 2019].” And when asked if the bull market can go on indefinitely, he said:
Not every business cycle is going to last forever, but no reason to believe this cycle can’t go on for quite some time, effectively indefinitely.
We don’t see the kind of buildup in risks in the financial markets, let alone the banking system.
That echoed Powell’s predecessor, Janet Yellen, who said this in 2017 when asked about the next financial crisis:
Would I say there will never, ever be another financial crisis? You know probably that would be going too far, but I do think we’re much safer and I hope that it will not be in our lifetimes and I don’t believe it will be.
But there are a few reasons why I’m not convinced…
Despite all this bullish talk, the Fed recently did a 180 on its tightening of monetary policy.
If you remember, the Fed has been steadily raising rates since December 2015. It raised them four times in 2018 alone… and in December last year, it claimed it would raise them twice in 2019.
But at its meeting last month, the Fed announced it would likely not raise interest rates in 2019, and it would likely raise them only once in 2020.
Here’s why this about-face matters…
Interest rates are barely coming off the lowest levels they’ve been in all of human history.
The Fed artificially brought rates down to 0% after the 2008 crisis and kept them there for over six years. You can see this in the next chart:
The Fed also announced it would phase out its balance sheet reduction program in the fall.
You might recall that the Fed created $3.7 trillion out of thin air in the wake of the 2008 crisis, under its money-printing programs euphemistically known as quantitative easing, or QE. That money was used to buy bonds, which sit on the Fed’s bloated balance sheet.
Now, some people think the Fed saved the day by pushing pause on its rate hikes. After all, it claims it’s doing this as a precaution “in light of global economic and financial developments.”
But I don’t buy it.
In fact, this whole charade proves to me that a crash is already underway – as the Fed inadvertently admitted we’re on the cusp of big problems.
After all, why would the Fed stop tightening monetary policy if it thinks there’s no chance of a recession?
Something doesn’t add up. And at the core of this charade is the fact that the U.S. economy is hooked on artificially low interest rates.
You see, the damage from the previous rate hikes and balance sheet reduction is already done.
For one, the cost to service debt has gone up across the board. And that could be fatal for many companies and entire industries that have grown dependent on artificially low rates.
After nearly six years of 0% interest rates, the U.S. economy is hooked on easy money.
It can’t even tolerate a modest reduction in the Fed’s balance sheet and 2.25% interest rates, which are still far below historical averages.
And we’re already seeing this take its toll in industries most dependent on easy money and 0% interest rates – the housing and auto markets.
“Constrained Financial Conditions”
For example, single-family new-home groundbreakings recently plummeted to a four-year low. That’s lower than what analysts had expected.
Then there’s the fact that housing sales are contracting in ways not seen since the last crisis.
And John Williams, the president and CEO of the New York Fed, says we’re seeing signs of a construction slowdown. The culprits, he says, are “constrained financial conditions.”
This might be the closest we get to the Fed admitting that the modest rise in interest rates is hurting the housing market.
But we don’t need the Fed to admit anything. We can already see this weakness in homebuilding stocks.
Take the SPDR S&P Homebuilders ETF (XHB), for example. This fund tracks the performance of companies with exposure to homebuilding activity.
Before the Fed announced its pause, XHB had collapsed over 33% from its peak last year. Today, it’s still down over 13%.
And like I mentioned earlier, the car market is also getting hit.
Auto sales in the first quarter of 2019 are off to their slowest start in six years. And they’re expected to be 4.9% lower than a year ago.
At the same time financing costs are surging, overall car prices are hitting record highs. And in February, auto loans were the most expensive they’ve been over the past 10 years.
Higher interest rates and tighter credit in the future will make further growth almost impossible.
The point of all this is that, in the weeks ahead, we will see shockwaves spread out, not only through the car and housing industries, but the economy overall.
That’s why now is a good time to take a close look at your portfolio.
Look at every position you own, and ask yourself: Would I be comfortable holding this through a recession… or even a crisis?
If the answer is no, consider lightening up on those weaker positions.
This way, you won’t have to worry about losing all your wealth in the recession I see coming.
Published:4/28/2019 7:43:32 PM
How Fascism Comes To America
Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,
I think there are really only two good reasons for having a significant amount of money: To maintain a high standard of living and to ensure your personal freedom. There are other, lesser reasons, of course, including: to prove you can do it, to compensate for failings in other things, to impress others, to leave a legacy, to help perpetuate your genes, or maybe because you just can't think of something better to do with your time.
But I'll put aside those lesser motives, which I tend to view as psychological foibles. Basically, money gives you the freedom to do what you'd like – and when, how, and with whom you prefer to do it. Money allows you to have things and do things and can even assist you to be something you want to be. Unfortunately, money is a chimera in today's world and will wind up savaging billions in the years to come.
As you know, I believe we're well into what I call The Greater Depression. A lot of people believe we're in a recovery now; I think, from a long-term point of view, that is total nonsense. We're just in the eye of the hurricane and will soon be moving into the other side of the storm. But it will be far more severe than what we saw in 2008 and 2009 and will last quite a while – perhaps for many years, depending on how stupidly the government acts.
Real Reasons for Optimism
There are reasons for optimism, of course, and at least two of them make sense.
The first is that every individual wants to improve his economic status. Many (but by no means all) of them will intuit that the surest way to do so is to produce more than they consume and save the difference. That creates capital, which can be invested in or loaned to productive enterprises. But what if outside forces make that impossible, or at least much harder than it should be?
The second reason for optimism is the development of technology – which is the ability to manipulate the material world to suit our desires. Scientists and engineers develop technology, and that also adds to the supply of capital. The more complex technology becomes, the more outside capital is required. But what if sufficient capital isn't generated by individuals and businesses to fund further technological advances?
There are no guarantees in life. Throughout the first several hundred thousand years of human existence, very little capital was accumulated – perhaps a few skins or arrowheads passed on to the next generation. And there was very little improvement in technology – it was many millennia between the taming of fire and, say, the invention of the bow. Things very gradually accelerated and improved, in a start-stop-start kind of way – the classical world, followed by the Dark Ages, followed by the medieval world. Finally, as we entered the industrial world 200 years ago, it looked like we were on an accelerating path to the stars. All of a sudden, life was no longer necessarily so solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, or short. I'm reasonably confident things will continue improving, possibly at an accelerating rate. But only if individuals create more capital than they consume and if enough of that capital is directed towards productive technology.
Real Reasons for Pessimism
Those are the two mainsprings of human progress: capital accumulation and technology. Unfortunately, however, that reality has become obscured by a morass of false and destructive theories, abetted by a world that's become so complex that it's too difficult for most people to sort out cause and effect. Furthermore, most people in the OECD world have become so accustomed to good times, since the end of WW2, that they think prosperity is automatic and a permanent feature of the cosmic firmament. So although I'm very optimistic, progress – certainly over the near term – isn't guaranteed.
These are the main reasons why the standard of living has been artificially high in the advanced world, but don't confuse them with the two reasons for long-term prosperity.
The first is debt. There's nothing wrong with debt in itself; lending is one way for the owner of capital to deploy it. But if a society is going to advance, debt should be largely for productive purposes, so that it's self-liquidating; and most of it would necessarily be short term.
But most of the scores of trillions of debt in the world today are for consumption, not production. And the debt is not only not self-liquidating, it's compounding. And most of it is long term, with no relation to any specific asset. A lender can reasonably predict the value of a short-term loan, but debt payable in 30 years is impossible to value realistically. All government debt, mortgage debt, consumer debt, and almost all student loan debt does nothing but allow borrowers to live off the capital others have accumulated. It turns the debtors into indentured servants for the indefinite future. The entire world has basically overlooked this, along with most other tenets of sound economics.
The second is inflation. Like debt, inflation induces people to live above their means, but its consequences are even worse, because they're indirect and delayed. If the central bank deposited $10,000 in everyone's bank account next Monday, everyone would think they were wealthier and start consuming more. This would start a business cycle. The business cycle is always the result of currency inflation, no matter how subtle or mild. And it always results in a depression. The longer an inflation goes on, the more ingrained the distortions and misallocations of capital become, and the worse the resulting depression. We've had a number of inflationary cycles since the end of the last depression in 1948. I believe we're now at the end of what might be called a super-cycle, resulting in a super-depression.
The third is the export of dollars. This is unique to the U.S. and is the reason the depression in the U.S. will in some ways be worse than most other places. Since the early '70s, the dollar has been used the way gold once was – it's the world's currency. The problem is that the U.S. has exported perhaps $10 trillion – but nobody knows – in exchange for good things from around the world. It was a great trade for a while. The foreigners get paper created at essentially zero cost, while Americans live high on the hog with the goodies those dollars buy.
But at some point quite soon, dollars won't be readily accepted, and smart foreigners will start dumping their dollars, passing the Old Maid card. Ultimately, most of the dollars will come back to the U.S., to be traded for titles to land and businesses. Americans will find that they traded their birthright for a storage unit full of TVs and assorted tchotchkes. But many foreigners will also be stuck with dollars and suffer a huge loss. It's actually a game with no winner.
These last three factors have enabled essentially the whole world to live above its means for decades. The process has been actively facilitated by governments everywhere. People like living above their means, and governments prefer to see the masses sated.
The debt and inflation have also financed the growth of the welfare state, making a large percentage of the masses dependent, even while they've also resulted in an immense expansion in the size and power of the state over the last 60-odd years. The masses have come to think government is a magical entity that can do almost anything, including kiss the economy and make it better when the going gets tough. The type of people who are drawn to the government are eager to make the state a panacea. So they'll redouble their efforts in the fiscal and monetary areas I've described above, albeit with increasingly disastrous results.
They'll also become quite aggressive with regulations (on what you can do and say, and where your money can go) and taxes (much higher existing taxes and lots of new ones, like a national VAT and a wealth tax). And since nobody wants to take the blame for problems, they'll blame things on foreigners. Fortunately (the U.S. will think) they have a huge military and will employ it promiscuously. So the already bankrupt nations of NATO will dig the hole deeper with some serious – but distracting – new wars.
It's most unfortunate, but the U.S. and its allies will turn into authoritarian police states. Even more than they are today. Much more, actually. They'll all be perfectly fascist – private ownership of both consumer goods and the means of production topped by state control of both. Fascism operates free of underlying principles or philosophy; it's totally the whim of the people in control, and they'll prove ever more ruthless.
So where does that leave us, as far as accumulating more wealth than the average guy is concerned? I'd say it puts us in a rather troubling position. The general standard of living is going to collapse, as will your personal freedom. And if you're an upper-middle-class person (I suspect that includes most who are now reading this), you will be considered among the rich who are somehow (this is actually a complex subject worthy of discussion) responsible for the bad times and therefore liable to be eaten. The bottom line is that if you value your money and your freedom, you'll take action.
There's much, much more to be said on all this. I've said a lot on the topic over the past few years, at some length. But I thought it best to be brief here, for the purpose of emphasis. Essentially, act now, because the world's combined economic, financial, political, social, and military situation is as good as it will be for many years… and a lot better than it has any right to be.
One more thing: Don't worry too much. All countries seem to go through nasty phases. Within the lifetime of most people today, we've seen it in big countries such as Russia, Germany, and China. And in scores of smaller ones – the list is too long to recount here. The good news is that things almost always get better, eventually.
* * *
Clearly, there are many strange things afoot in the world. Distortions of markets, distortions of culture. It’s wise to wonder what’s going to happen, and to take advantage of growth while also being prepared for crisis. How will you protect yourself in the next crisis? See our PDF guide that will show you exactly how. Click here to download it now.
Published:4/22/2019 8:06:49 PM
'Boobus Americanus', The CIA, & How The PC Movement Is Destroying The World
Authored by Justin Spittler via CaseyResearch.com,
As longtime readers know, our founder Doug Casey isn’t just a world-class speculator. He’s a rare, independent thinker and a walking encyclopedia. Best of all, he isn’t afraid to speak his mind… even if that means offending people.
That’s a rare commodity these days.
Today, people would rather be “politically correct”…
And that’s a big mistake.
According to Doug, this “PC” movement is just “one more termite eating away at the foundations of Western civilization itself.”
Read on to see why...
Justin Spittler: Doug, I want to ask you about political correctness. Obviously, PC culture’s nothing new, but it kind of seems like it’s spreading like cancer these days. Terms like “gender inclusivity,” “cultural appropriation,” and “white privilege” are everywhere.
A good example is an announcement by the University of Minnesota in 2017… saying it was dropping the names “king” and “queen” from its Homecoming festivities in favor of “royals.” It did this in the name of “gender inclusivity.”
Is PC culture getting totally out of hand, or am I going crazy?
Doug Casey: Parts of the culture are borderline insane. There’ve been news items regarding this on scores of different colleges and universities across the U.S. What you mentioned at the University of Minnesota was just part of a greater movement. Although I’ve got to say that I find the use of “Royals” objectionable. I dislike the idea of a hereditary aristocracy – kings and queens and royals. They’re basically just successful, silk-clad gangsters. Why the royal family in Britain is looked up to is a mystery to me. They, like all royals in the world, historically are just descendants of successful thugs.
But that’s not the point that the PC people are making. They don’t want to see people identified by their birth sex. They would rather that people “identify” as whatever gender – and I understand there are supposed to be about 40 – you feel you belong to. You can say you are whoever you think you are. And oddly enough, I’m somewhat sympathetic to that. I think you should be able to call yourself what you want, do what you want, say what you want, this is all fine. And let people judge you by how you identify yourself. Say that you’re a hermaphrodite dinosaur who was born on Mars, if you want. I don’t care; it’s your problem. But these PC types want to legislate that people have to treat the psychologically aberrated as if they were normal. They want laws and punishments governing what you can and can’t do and say and even feel. They want to force you to respect, and pay for, the fantasies of a minority. And change – overturn actually – the whole social culture of the country. It’s a very disturbing trend. It’s likely to end in violence.
I believe I first heard the term “political correctness” used on a Saturday Night Live show back in about 1980. And I thought it was just a joke – like most of the things on SNL. But it turned out to be a real thing, and it’s been building momentum, for at least the last two generations. Where is it going to end? I’m not sure, but it’s just one more termite eating away at the foundations of Western civilization itself. People that go along with this stuff aren’t just crazy. They’re actually evil. They’re the same types who rallied around Robespierre during the French Revolution, Lenin during the Russian Revolution, Hitler in ’30s Germany, and Mao in China. It’s a certain personality type.
The fact that the average American still puts up with this kind of nonsense and treats it with respect is a bad sign. PC values are continually inculcated into kids that go off to college – which, incidentally, is another idiotic mistake that most people make for both economic and philosophical reasons. It’s a real cause for pessimism.
Justin: I agree 100%, Doug. But here’s something our average reader might not realize.
The PC “movement” is actually happening across the world.
For example, Cardiff Metropolitan University in the U.K. banned words like “mankind,” “homosexual,” “housewife,” “manmade,” and “sportsmanship” in an effort to “promote fairness and equality through raising awareness about the effects of potentially discriminatory vocabulary.”
Here are some of the university’s approved alternatives…
Instead of “manpower,” students and faculty should say “human resources.”
Instead of “mankind,” “humanity.”
Instead of “sportsmanship,” “fairness.”
Instead of “polio victim,” “polio survivor.”
So here we have another university trying to legislate what people can and cannot say in the name of fairness and equality.
But I really don’t see how this accomplishes anything. Would you agree?
Doug: Completely. The words you use control the way you think. These people don’t have good intentions, they have bad intentions. Destructive intentions. They’re opposed to all the things that, starting with Ancient Greece, made Western civilization unique, and better than any other on Earth. They’re opposed to the concepts of individualism, personal freedom, capitalism, economic liberty, free thought, and the like. And it starts with controlling the words you use. George Orwell pointed that out in 1984 where he created “Newspeak,” which was a new version of the English language that used all kinds of different new words in order to change the way people think. And to make it impossible for them to think clearly, because the words were purposely misdefined, often to the opposite of the meanings that they actually have. So, sure, this is part of the continuing corruption of Western civilization itself.
And you’re right, it’s not just in American universities. It’s in universities everywhere, because the culture of universities everywhere has been controlled by this whole class of progressives, social justice warriors, cultural Marxists, socialists – they go under a number of names. I don’t know what’s going to be done about it, quite frankly, because the average person doesn’t have A) the backbone and B) the philosophical knowledge to counter these people. So there’s great cause for pessimism, watching this happen and accelerate. It’s not slowing down, it’s accelerating everywhere.
For instance, some years ago I sat on the Board of Trustees of two different universities. The other trustees weren’t academics, but normal, successful middle-class people. And they were completely snowed by these crazy trends. They were of good will, but they’d been brainwashed by their own educations, and the culture around them, into thinking that although perhaps the SJWs and such were going “too far,” they didn’t actively oppose them. I’m afraid the intellectual and psychological battle has been lost.
Justin: Exactly, it seems people across the world are waging a war on their own freedom of speech. Meanwhile, you have the government waging a war on people’s privacy…
Facebook and internet service providers are hawking private browsing data, Google is listening in on our conversations, the CIA is hacking people’s smartphones…
As disturbing as this all is, I can’t say I’m surprised. Are you?
Doug: No, I wasn’t at all surprised by it. But people’s reaction to these horrible things is that, “Well, the CIA should be reined in a bit, they should be brought under control.” But this is the wrong reaction. The CIA – along with the NSA, the DEA, and a bunch of others – should be abolished, because the CIA has become an actual Praetorian guard. It’s become a government within a government. They have their own armed forces, they have their own sources of income. You can go rogue within the CIA, and if you’re powerful enough or clever enough you can basically do what you want because you’re an armed government agent that’s a member of a very powerful group.
These people are completely out of control. And they have a powerful propaganda machine that works around the clock to convince ignorant and paranoid Boobus americanus that they’re actually good guys, working for his interests against the rest of the world.
The CIA should be abolished because it’s dysfunctional, but also because it serves no useful purpose. It’s never ever predicted, through its so-called “intelligence gathering,” anything of value – ever. The Korean War, the rise of Castro, the fall of the Shah, the rise of Islam, the fact that the Soviet Union was just an empty shell – you know, they thought the Soviet Union was actually competing with the U.S. from an economic point of view. They’re always absolutely wrong on everything. It defies the odds of pure chance. They’re not just useless, but extremely dangerous. All the coups and revolutions they’ve plotted were disasters.
Can you abolish them? Can you get rid of them at this point? No, they’re far too powerful. And anybody that tries is either going to be killed and/or discredited by their black propaganda. At this point the situation’s completely out of control, and we just have to see where it ends. As an individual American, you should try to insulate yourself from these people. Because they’re not going away; they’re going to become even more powerful.
Justin: How can the average American do that? Should they flee to another country? Delete their Facebook? Is this something people can even escape?
Doug: It’s now a very small world, so it’s very hard to escape. But you just mentioned something to consider. I spend two-thirds of the year in South America, and travel a lot. Believe it or not, I don’t personally have a cell phone, because I don’t like to feel tethered to an electronic device. Societies down here aren’t nearly as electronically oriented as they are in the U.S. Though my internet connection in Cafayate, Argentina is much better than the one I have in Aspen. So, yes, that’s one thing. It’s easier to be out of sight and out of mind of the bad guys if you’re out of the U.S., which is the epicenter of all of this. I think that’s important. And being physically absent and trying to limit your use of electronic devices and be careful when you do use them. That’s about all you can do at this point.
Or you can be a good little lamb, and never think out of the box. To mix metaphors, you can act like an ostrich and stick your head in the sand, believing you have nothing to hide, because you’re one of the herd who never does anything wrong. Too few people have read Harvey Silverglate’s book where he points out how the average American often commits about three felonies a day.
But that book is surely inaccurate. It’s 10 years old. Now it’s probably like five felonies a day.
Justin: Thanks for taking the time to speak with me today, Doug.
Doug: My pleasure, Justin.
* * *
If you enjoy Conversations With Casey, you’ll want to get your hands on our popular book – Totally Incorrect Volume 2. It’s Doug’s most controversial book yet… and you can get it for free. This book is not available anywhere else right now. Learn how to get your copy right here.
Published:4/7/2019 7:56:09 PM
He Killed a Man. Then This Gangster Changed His Life.
At 16, Casey Diaz went to prison for killing a man. The son of an alcoholic father, Diaz grew up in a rough neighborhood and... Read More
The post He Killed a Man. Then This Gangster Changed His Life. appeared first on The Daily Signal.
Published:4/3/2019 2:33:55 AM
Doug Casey: Why Socialism Is A Moral Failing
Most likely Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC) is the future of the Democratic Party – and of the U.S.
She’s cute, vivacious, charming, different, outspoken, and has a plan to Make America Great Again. And she – or at least her handlers – is shrewd. She realized she could win by ringing doorbells in her district, where voter turnout was very low, and about 70% are non-white. There was zero motivation for residents to turn out for the tired, corrupt, old hack of a white man she ran against.
The things she says are politically astute, although she herself doesn’t seem very intelligent. In fact, she’s probably quite stupid. But let’s define the word “stupid.” Otherwise, it’s just a meaningless pejorative – name-calling. Which I want to avoid.
But in fact she doesn’t appear to have a very high IQ. I suspect that if she took a standardized IQ test, she’d be someplace in the low end of the normal range. But that’s just conjecture on my part, entirely apart from the fact a high IQ doesn’t necessarily correlate with success. Besides, there are many kinds of intelligence – athletic, aesthetic, emotional, situational…
A high IQ can actually be a disadvantage to getting elected. Remember it’s a bell-shaped curve, and the “average” person isn’t a rocket scientist. That’s compounded by the fact half the population has an IQ of 100 or less. They’re suspicious of anyone who’s more than, say, 15 points smarter than they are.
However, there are better ways to define stupid than “a low score on an IQ test,” that apply to Alexandria. Stupid is “the inability to predict not just the immediate and direct consequences of actions, but the indirect and delayed consequences of your actions.”
She’s clearly unable to do that. She can predict the immediate and direct consequences of the policies she’s promoting: her supporters are very excited about “liberating” other people’s wealth that just seems to be sitting around. Power to the People, and AOC! But she’s completely unable to see the indirect and delayed consequences of her policies – which I hope I don’t have to explain to anyone now reading this.
If you promise people unicorns, lollipops, and free everything, they’re going to say, “Gee, I like that, let’s do it.” She’s clever on about a third grade level.
But there’s an even better definition of stupid. Namely, “an unwitting tendency to self-destruction.” All the economic ideas that she’s proposing are going to wind up absolutely destroying the country.
It’s as if she thinks that what’s happened recently in Venezuela and Zimbabwe – not to mention Mao’s China, the Soviet Union, and a hundred other places – was a good thing.
That’s my argument for her being stupid. And ignorant as well. But perhaps I’m missing something. After all, Karl Marx – who would thoroughly approve of her ideas – was both highly intelligent, and extremely knowledgeable; he was actually a polymath. The same can be said of many academics, left-wing economists, and socialist theoreticians.
So perhaps a desire for “socialism” isn’t just an intellectual failing. It’s actually a moral failing.
Socialism – A Moral Failing
Socialism is basically about the forceful control of other people’s lives and property. In my view, that’s evil.
I’m afraid Alexandria is evil on a basic level. I know that sounds silly. How can that be true of a smiling young girl who says she wants just sunshine and unicorns for everybody? It’s too bad the word “evil” has been so compromised, so discredited, by the people who use it all the time – bible-thumpers, hysterics, and religious fanatics. Evil shouldn’t be associated with horned demons and eternal perdition. It just means something destructive, or recklessly injurious.
The world would be better off if she went back to waitressing and bartending. But she herself isn’t the problem. She’s fungible. Her handlers can easily replace her, as an individual. The problem is that voters like what she represents.
It really helps to be young, good looking, and affable. But those things do nothing to solve the immense problems plaguing the U.S., just under the surface. Wouldn’t it be nice if everybody had a job paying at least $15 an hour, free schooling, housing was a basic human right, free medical, free food, and 100% green energy? It doesn’t sound evil – it just sounds stupid. But it’s actually both.
The problem isn’t just that she got elected on this platform in a benighted – but increasingly typical – district. The problem is that most young people in the U.S. also have her beliefs and values.
The free market, individualism, personal liberty, personal responsibility, hard work, rationality, free speech – the values of western civilization – are being washed away, everywhere. But it’s hard to defend them, because the argument for them is intellectual, economic, and historical. While the mob, the capita censi, the “head count” as the Romans called them, is swayed by emotions. They feel, they don’t think. Arguments are limited to Twitter feeds. Or 30-second TV sound bites.
When somebody says, for instance, “Why can’t we have free school for everybody? The university buildings are already built. The professors are already there. So why can’t everybody just go to class, and learn about gender studies?” The same arguments are made for food, shelter, clothing, entertainment, communication – everything in fact.
To counter that, you have to come up with specific reasons for why not. You end up sounding like a Negative Nelly because you’re telling people they can’t have something.
I guess I’ve given too much credit to the goodwill and the common sense of the average American. The proof of that is the success of AOC. Her election brings the average American’s psychological aberrations to the fore.
It’s exactly the type of thing the Founders tried to guard against by restricting the vote to property owners over 21, going through the Electoral College. Now, welfare recipients who are only 18 can vote, and the Electoral College is toothless. Some want to totally abolish the College, and have even 16-year-olds and illegal aliens voting.
Nobody, except for a few libertarians and conservatives, is countering the ideas AOC represents. And they have a very limited audience. The spirit of the new century is overwhelming the values of the past.
Everybody Will Blame Capitalism
When the economy collapses – likely in 2019 – everybody will blame capitalism, because Trump is somehow, incorrectly, associated with capitalism. The country – especially the young, the poor, and the non-white – will look to the government to “do something.” They see government as a cornucopia, and socialism as a kind and gentle answer. Soon, they think, everyone will be able to drink lattes all day at Starbucks while they play with their iPhones, living on a Guaranteed Annual Income.
The people who control the government definitely won’t want to be seen as “do nothings.” Especially while the ship of state is sinking in The Greater Depression. They’ll want to be seen as forward thinkers, problem solvers, and social justice warriors.
So we’re going to see much higher taxes, among other things. There’s no other way to pay for these programs, except sell more debt to the Fed – which they’ll also do, by necessity.
The government is bankrupt. But like all living things from an amoeba to a person to a corporation, its prime directive is to survive. The only way a bankrupt government can survive is by higher tax revenue and money printing. Of course, don’t discount a war; these fools actually believe that would stimulate the economy – the way only turning lots of cities into smoking ruins can.
I don’t see any way out of this.
Published:3/31/2019 4:46:10 PM
Doug Casey: Why Modern Monetary Theory Will Destroy Money...
Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,
MMT centers around the notion that the economy in general, and money in particular, should be the creatures of the State.
It’s not a new idea – the meme has been around in one form or another since at least the days of Marx.
MMT basically posits that the wise and incorruptible solons in government should create as much currency as they think is needed, spend it in areas they like, and solve any problems that occur with more laws and regulations.
It’s nothing new. Just a more radical version of the economic fascism that’s dominated the U.S. since at least the days of the New Deal. It’s just another name for an old, and very stupid, set of economic ideas. By stupid I mean, “showing an inability to predict the indirect and delayed consequences of actions.”
Politicians are now talking about the supposed benefits of MMT. Pseudo-economists are doing their abstruse and incomprehensible mathematical computations about how it might affect the economy.
The public will easily be convinced they’ll get something for nothing.
But what we should be talking about here is moral principle. It’s not a question of whether MMT will work or not work. It won’t. It will work about as well as the economic policies of Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Or Argentina, where I am at the moment.
These schemes have never worked in all of history. They result in a vastly lower standard of living, along with social strife. MMT is about radically increased government control. The argument shouldn’t be over whether MMT will “work” or not. The argument should be about whether it’s moral and proper for people in the government – whether elected or appointed – to print money to change the economy into something that suits them better.
What Money Is
Money represents the hours of your life that you spent earning it. That’s the basic principle here. It represents concentrated life – all the things you want to have and do for yourself, and provide for others in the future.
When these people destroy the value of money, they’re destroying part of your life.
“Inflation” isn’t caused by greedy butchers, bakers, and gasoline makers. It’s caused by an excess of purchasing media. MMT will give the State total control of its quantity and quality.
If the government increases the money supply by, say, 10 times, general prices will go up by 10 times. The value of your dollar savings will drop 90% – perhaps most Americans won’t care, because they have no savings, just debt.
In any event, some people will get hold of a lot more of that 10x increase than others. And they’ll get hold of it earlier, before prices really take off.
Who? Inevitably cronies.
Look, absolutely every government intrusion into the economy – whether it’s taxes or regulations or inflation – always benefits the people in and around the government. And damages society as a whole.
But they’re sold to the voters, to the hoi polloi, to the “head count,” as something that will put them on easy street. Which is a lie, of course.
But that’s not what the argument should be about. The average guy doesn’t understand economics; he doesn’t think, he feels.
Furthermore, nobody talks about whether cockamamie ideas like MMT are morally right or wrong. Instead, they have pointless and ridiculous arguments about whether it works or not. Well, it doesn’t work. But that’s a distraction.
This matter is essentially a moral question, not a technical question. Does somebody in government have a right to determine your economic destiny? Or not?
The fact that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez [AOC] – an ambitious, terminally ignorant, morally crippled 29-year-old Puerto Rican bartender – is setting the tone for this whole discussion tells you how degraded the U.S. has become. It’s well on its way to turning into a giant welfare and police state.
But, as you know, I always look on the bright side. Which is that – if you give yourself a little psychological distance – this is all a comedy.
AOC, The Donald, Bolton, Bernie Sanders, Pocahontas, Hillary, Kamala, etc., etc. They’re all dangerous megalomaniacs. But the chimpanzees listen to them, choose teams, hang on to their every word, support them, and are easily incited to hoot and pant at each other.
The American public is going to get exactly what it deserves. I have no sympathy for them. Or about as much as I would have had for the Romans in the fifth century, when the empire was collapsing.
* * *
Clearly, there are many strange things afoot in the world. Distortions of markets, distortions of culture. It’s wise to wonder what’s going to happen, and to take advantage of growth while also being prepared for crisis. How will you protect yourself in the next crisis? See our PDF guide that will show you exactly how. Click here to download it now.
Published:3/27/2019 9:18:18 PM
Deb Heine: Here Are 50 "Journalists," NeverTrumpers, Celebrities, and DicPic-Sending Twitter Weirdos Who Most Embarrassed Themselves With Their Collusion Delusion Conspiracy Theories
Deb Heine is like Casey Kasem counting down the hacks, grifters, loons, and cucks. The below Washington Post video makes mock of the Democrats who most hyped the Collusion Delusion. Now, you may say, "Wow, they went there?" But think...
Published:3/27/2019 2:48:01 PM
Doug Casey On The Year The World Falls Apart
It’s “Totally Incorrect” week here at Casey Research...
We’ve shared Doug Casey’s uncensored insights – on topics ranging from the climate change hoax to the next 9/11-type event.
But today’s essay may be the most controversial one yet…
Doug says a disaster of historic proportions is on the menu for 2019.
And it’s critical to understand what’s happening.
Read on for four specific predictions about what lies ahead. Some of these predictions may seem outlandish... but you owe it to yourself to hear what he has to say...
Prediction 1: The End of Retirement
The average American can forget about retirement. We’ve all heard these stories about how the average American couldn’t lay his hands on $1,000 to save his life. His expenses aren’t going away, however, even if his income does.
It seems like things have reached a critical mass. And if the economy slows down there are going to be a lot of people losing their homes again. They’ll be unable to pay their credit card bills, their car payments, their student loans, or anything else. They aren’t going to be able to buy anything. They wound up in breadlines in the ’30s. But today 40 million Americans have SNAP cards to take away the hunger pains and embarrassment of being penniless. There could be 100 million in a few years.
I know this sounds outrageous because right now everything is running fairly smoothly. The standard of living of the average middle-class American has degraded slowly over decades but hasn’t yet totally collapsed. But that’s the way it is a day before a volcano explodes, or a day before an earthquake, or minutes before an avalanche starts coming down.
This isn’t a theoretical discussion. Most retirement plans are in serious jeopardy. Many pension funds are already seriously underwater, even after a very long boom.
The situation is likely to deteriorate. The stock market is in a bubble. The bond market is in a hyper bubble. A lot of value could disappear very quickly. By the time this depression bottoms, in today’s dollars – I don’t know what the dollars are going to be worth – the Dow could trade at 5,000, or less. We’re going to see interest rates exceed what we saw in the early 1980s, when the U.S. government was paying 15%.
From a retiree’s point of view, things are not going to improve. It’s going to get worse, not better. His savings, if he has any, are going to be attacked from several angles. I don’t see any way out of this. Unless friendly aliens land on the roof of the White House and present Trump with some kind of magic technology.
Prediction 2: A White Male Privilege Tax, and Other Radical Tax Hikes
You’ve got to remember that the prime directive of any organism, whether it’s an amoeba, a person, a corporation, or a government, is to survive. Bankrupt governments – and they’re all bankrupt because of welfare state policies – are going to fight to survive. The only way that they can survive is to tax more and print more money. And that’s exactly what they’re going to do. Of course, don’t discount a war; these fools actually believe that would stimulate the economy – the way only turning lots of cities into smoking ruins can.
I suspect they’ll try to make white males bear most of the burden. That’s partly because they still have most of the money. And partly because it’s become fashionable to hate white males in particular. It’s natural to want to hurt people that they think are the problem – what Marxists would say are the “class enemy.”
We’re going to see much higher taxes, among other unsavory things. There’s no other way to pay for welfare state programs, except sell more debt to the Fed – which they’ll also do, by necessity. Inflation will get out of control as a result.
Of course, you’ve got to remember that as recently as the Eisenhower administration the top marginal tax rate was theoretically 91%. The average person didn’t pay anywhere remotely near that because it was a steeply progressive tax rate. Nobody did, frankly, especially the rich, because there were loads of tax shelters, which no longer exist. Hiding money offshore, among other things, was easy. Now these things are out of the question.
Now there’s no place to hide from the State. And envy is rampant. How bad could it get? In Sweden during the 1970s, the marginal tax rate, including their wealth tax, was something like 102%. So, almost anything is possible.
Of course they’ll raise taxes radically. It’s time to eat the rich.
Prediction 3: Like Venezuela, Socialism Will Conquer the U.S.
Its ideas already have. First, we should define what socialism is: it’s State ownership of the means of production. It was supposed to be a passing stage on the road to communism. Communism is communal ownership of private goods – houses, cars, shops, and consumer items – as well as capital goods. Nobody even talks about that anymore, since capitalism has given most people so much stuff that they don’t even have room to store it all.
Socialism in the U.S. is unlikely. Governments have found it’s much more efficient to simply have the State control capital, as opposed to owning and operating it. It’s so much easier to just take as much as they want of the profits, then blame the capitalists if something goes wrong with delivery of the goods.
Forgetting about North Korea and Cuba, there are no socialist states anywhere in the world. What we have instead are welfare states – where the government provides some degree of free schooling, free medical care, free housing, free food, and so forth. If not free, then subsidized. The next step is a guaranteed annual income.
The word “socialism” today is actually just shorthand for a welfare state, which is what Boobus americanus, the hoi polloi, really want. They don’t really care who owns the factories, the fields, and the mines. What they care about is that somebody gives them a soft life.
When you give people the ability to vote themselves free stuff at somebody else’s expense they’ll do it. But – much worse – they now actually think it’s the right thing to do. Why? Mainly because of the propaganda that they’ve absorbed through college, and the media, the entertainment world, and numerous other places. There’s no question about the fact that the U.S. will turn into a full-fledged welfare state.
Socialism is basically about the forceful control of other people’s lives and property. It isn’t just an intellectual failing. It’s actually a moral failing. Although – perversely – it’s sold as being moral. People buy it because they like to believe they’re doing the right thing.
It will end with an economic collapse. Then a political and – most importantly – a cultural collapse.
Prediction 4: A New 9/11-Type Event – Real or a Contrived False Flag
It’s entirely possible. It’s still completely undetermined what actually happened on 9/11, and who was actually behind it. Notwithstanding that, considering how the U.S. government continues to provoke people all over the world, there’s certainly some group, most likely Mohammedans, who’ll decide to strike out against the great Satan.
And as 9/11 showed, regardless of who was actually responsible, a very small number of people can have a very large effect on things. Especially when the system itself is critically unstable, which it is today.
They might do something like Mumbai in 2008. It took only two dozen fanatics with ordinary guns. They turned the whole city totally on its head for days. That was extremely cheap, low-tech, and easy. Warfare has always been a matter of economics; cheap trumps expensive. There are scores of ways to severely disrupt an advanced society for a trivial investment. On the other hand, it’s extremely expensive to disrupt a primitive society, as the U.S. is discovering in Afghanistan.
Anyway, “terrorism” is an extremely low-cost method of warfare. It will have a gigantic effect, when someone decides to use it in the U.S. 9/11 was just an amuse bouche. You can plan your life around something like that happening again.
The world is evolving at the rate of Moore’s Law in many regards. Let me emphasize that military technology is changing too. Aircraft carriers, B2s, F35s, M1 tanks, and so forth are basically junk. Great for fighting the Soviet Union, which no longer exists. They serve no useful purpose in the kind of battles that are likely in the future.
If someone wants to attack the U.S., they’re not going to use an ICBM; they’re extremely expensive, clunky, and you can see where they come from, guaranteeing retaliation. It’s total idiocy that even a maniac wouldn’t bother with. Not when you can deliver a backpack nuke by FedEx, cheap and on time. Or you could use any commercial aircraft, container ship, or truck.
If you want to blame Iran – and really whip up the U.S. population – there would be nothing like a small nuclear or radiological attack to do it. It’s a pity, since they’re a distant regional power with a failing economy, who present about zero threat to the U.S.
If I were to attempt putting my finger on exactly when the U.S. will go over the edge, I would think the real catalyst might be the next 9/11-type event. I don’t doubt it’s going to happen.
How are we any different than the Germans in the 1920s? They were one of the most civilized, best-educated countries in Europe and they fell into the abyss.
Published:3/23/2019 6:51:43 PM
Toxic Chemical Inferno Threatens Houston Area As Black Plume Extends For Miles
The petrochemical fire that has been raging out of control at an oil storage facility in Deer Park, Texas since Sunday is now impacting the greater Houston area by what's been described as a "plume of thick, black smoke [which] for a third day intensified overnight as pungent fumes pervaded neighborhoods more than 20 miles away," according to Bloomberg and local reports.
The fire which has consumed highly flammable chemical tanks at the Intercontinental Terminals Company oil plant about 15 miles (24 kilometers) southeast of Houston remains "uncontrolled" according to local officials.
The petrochemical fire had triggered a "shelter-in-place" warning for area residents on Sunday, who were further advised by Deer Park city officials to close air ventilation systems in their homes and close all windows.
Disturbingly, a black plume has settled over downtown Houston and has now reportedly made its way to the city's northside. Bloomberg cited one local woman who noted, "You can really smell and taste it now."
According to prior local reports, the initial chemical tanks that caught fire were known to contain a highly flammable liquid hydrocarbon mixture called naphtha, which is often used as a raw material for production and conversion to gasoline.
Bloomberg further described:
"...in residential neighborhoods on the city's north side, a chemical odor descended Tuesday morning on an otherwise clear day."
Naphtha is classified as "Extremely flammable" and a dangerous irritant to humans if encountered in "high vapor concentration".
According to its chemical safety fact sheet it is "Irritating to eyes and respiratory system. Affects central nervous system. Harmful or fatal if swallowed. Aspiration Hazard."
Now a total of eight storage tanks are reported to be on fire after firefighters dealt with a drop in water pressure while attempting to extinguish the fire Monday evening.
Starting Monday a thick haze began to gather over the fourth largest city in the United States, worrying employees who were in Houston's downtown high rises.
City and environmental officials have throughout the ordeal assured residents that Harris County Pollution Control was conducing air quality monitoring tests of the area, but still cautioned residents to stay indoors if at all possible.
On Monday the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality said in a public statement that there were no "immediate health concerns at ground level," but residents have complained that updates have not been issued fast enough. Monitors with the Intercontinental Terminals Company also sought to assure Deer Park citizens that "Readings are currently well below hazardous levels."
A number of Houston area schools were closed due to the potential for toxic air problems on Monday and Tuesday, and highways running near the facility were shut down in both directions.
Potential health effects of the smoke include coughing, difficulty breathing and irritation to eyes and throat, according to the One Breath Partnership, an organization that works to improve air quality. — Bloomberg/Houston Chronicle
Deer Park residents were first notified early Sunday by the following public alert: "City of Deer Park issuing SHELTER-IN-PLACE emergency in Deer Park," the city wrote in multiple emergency messages. "Please take immediate action and seek shelter," the warnings directed.
In a follow-up warning which was also extended to Pasadena and other suburbs of Houston, people were advised: "Residents are asked to remain sheltered and avoid going outdoors if at all possible. Community air monitoring is being conducted and additional updates will be provided as they become available."
Published:3/19/2019 10:54:34 AM
The uses of socialism
(Scott Johnson) When it comes to the creation of wealth, socialism is worse than worthless. It is a great destroyer. For the promotion of equality by immiseration of the people who suffer under it, socialism is a powerful tool. But as a means of social control by the ruling elite, it is unparalleled. Yesterday’s long New York Times story by Nicholas Casey — “‘It Is Unspeakable’: How Maduro Used Cuban Doctors to
Published:3/19/2019 7:31:29 AM
Doug Casey Destroys The Modern Monetary Theory Miasma
The left has a new obsession... Modern Monetary Theory (MMT).
MMT is an economic theory which essentially argues that the U.S. government wouldn’t need to collect taxes or borrow money to finance spending. It could simply print more money if necessary.
Now, this concept isn’t new. It’s been around for decades. But its popularity has skyrocketed, thanks to endorsements from Democratic presidential candidate Bernie Sanders and Congresswoman Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (AOC), the new rising star of the Democratic Party.
This new breed of socialist Democrats has embraced MMT because it would make all their crazy ideas possible. The national debt, deficits, and inflation concerns would no longer stand in the way of projects like the Green New Deal or universal healthcare/housing/education.
In short, MMT would give the government a green light to spend money even more recklessly than it does now. That’s a problem.
So I got Doug Casey on the phone to discuss this matter at length...
Justin: Doug, what do you make of Modern Monetary Theory? Would this economic framework help or hurt the U.S. economy?
Doug: MMT centers around the notion that the economy in general, and money in particular, should be the creatures of the State. It’s not a new idea – the meme has been around in one form or another since at least the days of Marx. MMT basically posits that the wise and incorruptible solons in government should create as much currency as they think is needed, spend it in areas they like, and solve any problems that occur with more laws and regulations.
It’s nothing new. Just a more radical version of the economic fascism that’s dominated the U.S. since at least the days of the New Deal. It’s just another name for an old, and very stupid, set of economic ideas. By stupid I mean, “showing an inability to predict the indirect and delayed consequences of actions.”
Politicians are now talking about the supposed benefits of MMT. Pseudo-economists are doing their abstruse and incomprehensible mathematical computations about how it might affect the economy. The public will easily be convinced they’ll get something for nothing.
But what we should be talking about here is moral principle. It’s not a question of whether MMT will work or not work. It won’t. It will work about as well as the economic policies of Venezuela and Zimbabwe. Or Argentina, where I am at the moment. These schemes have never worked in all of history. They result in a vastly lower standard of living, along with social strife.
MMT is about radically increased government control. The argument shouldn’t be over whether MMT will “work” or not. The argument should be about whether it’s moral and proper for people in the government – whether elected or appointed – to print money to change the economy into something that suits them better.
Justin: It’s obvious that you find MMT, like other interventionist economic theories, to be immoral. Why is that?
Doug: Money represents the hours of your life that you spent earning it. That’s the basic principle here. It represents concentrated life – all the things you want to have and do for yourself, and provide for others in the future. When these people destroy the value of money, they’re destroying part of your life.
“Inflation” isn’t caused by greedy butchers, bakers, and gasoline makers. It’s caused by an excess of purchasing media. MMT will give the State total control of its quantity and quality. If the government increases the money supply by, say, 10 times, general prices will go up by 10 times. The value of your dollar savings will drop 90% – perhaps most Americans won’t care, because they have no savings, just debt.
In any event, some people will get hold of a lot more of that 10x increase than others. And they’ll get hold of it earlier, before prices really take off. Who? Inevitably cronies.
Look, absolutely every government intrusion into the economy – whether it’s taxes or regulations or inflation – always benefits the people in and around the government. And damages society as a whole.
But they’re sold to the voters, to the hoi polloi, to the “head count,” as something that will put them on easy street. Which is a lie, of course.
But that’s not what the argument should be about. The average guy doesn’t understand economics; he doesn’t think, he feels. Furthermore, nobody talks about whether cockamamie ideas like MMT are morally right or wrong. Instead, they have pointless and ridiculous arguments about whether it works or not. Well, it doesn’t work. But that’s a distraction.
This matter is essentially a moral question, not a technical question. Does somebody in government have a right to determine your economic destiny? Or not?
The fact that Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez [AOC] – an ambitious, terminally ignorant, morally crippled 29-year-old Puerto Rican bartender – is setting the tone for this whole discussion tells you how degraded the U.S. has become. It’s well on its way to turning into a giant welfare and police state.
But, as you know, I always look on the bright side. Which is that – if you give yourself a little psychological distance – this is all a comedy. AOC, The Donald, Bolton, Bernie Sanders, Pocahontas, Hillary, Kamala, etc., etc. They’re all dangerous megalomaniacs. But the chimpanzees listen to them, choose teams, hang on to their every word, support them, and are easily incited to hoot and pant at each other. The American public is going to get exactly what it deserves. I have no sympathy for them. Or about as much as I would have had for the Romans in the fifth century, when the empire was collapsing.
Justin: Doug, you’re correct to point out that AOC has endorsed MMT. Stephanie Kelton, Bernie Sanders’ economic advisor during his last presidential run, is also a proponent of MMT. So this idea is gaining traction with Democrats.
Of course, neither the White House nor Congress dictates monetary policy. That’s the Fed’s job. And current Fed Chair Jerome Powell has already come out and called MMT “wrong.” Former Treasury Secretary Larry Summers also recently called MMT “grotesque.”
That said, what are the chances MMT or some version of it gets implemented?
Doug: Interesting. It may be the first thing Summers has ever been right about in his whole life. As for Powell, he’s a non-entity, a lifelong bureaucrat plucked from obscurity – for God knows what reason – by The Donald. Trump has bizarrely bad judgment in the people he surrounds himself with. From that silly woman who was on The Apprenticewith him, to his lawyer Cohen, to Jared and Ivanka, Bolton… it’s like he goes out to the highways and the byways to round up the lame, the halt, and the philosophically blind. Regardless of his rhetoric, he’s very partial to warmongers and Deep State types.
But back to MMT. The chances of MMT being implemented are extremely high. It will almost certainly happen, at least after the next election, for several reasons.
One, the government is now running a deficit of roughly $100 billion a month; that will soon be $200 billion. They’ll be desperate for more revenue, which MMT will give them. Second, with demographics – the youth and non-white voters – as they are, the Democrats will get a lot more traction in 2020. Third, the U.S. will be in the midst of a gigantic crisis; it will be blamed on Trump, regardless of how much of it’s his fault. There are a number of other reasons the Democrats will win. But that’s a subject for another conversation.
They’re going to try every cockamamie idea they can to keep the ball rolling. Lots more controls of all types. More debt. More inflation. MMT is just going to be part of it. I don’t doubt they’ll try for a Constitutional Convention. It’s going to be a desperate situation, ending in a catastrophe. Not in the distant future but the near future. We’re on the cusp of the Greater Depression.
I know I’ve been saying this for years. But the idea of America has gradually degraded since about the time of Teddy Roosevelt, and the original Progressives. Then faster with World War I, faster yet with the New Deal, faster yet with World War II, the Great Society, the Nixon devaluation, the Reagan deficits, the War on Drugs, the War on Terror.
The only good news – and it’s super good news – is that science and technology have advanced as well. That’s maintained the general standard of living. Unfortunately, the State always gets first dibs on tech developments, and uses them against society. This long-term trend is now going hyperbolic.
The next big example of this is the Social Credit System being implemented in China. And soon everywhere else. It’s a pity that philosophy and morality have meanwhile only advanced at a snail’s pace. In fact, they’ve been going backward. It’s a very dangerous situation when we’re talking about nuclear, and even more advanced, weapons.
The bottom line? You can practically plan your life around their grasping the straw of MMT.
Justin: Doug, I know you object to MMT on moral grounds. But let’s face it. Most people don’t see monetary policy this way. They believe the Fed should play a role in guiding the economy, whether it’s through setting interest rates or adjusting the money supply.
Could you tell me why MMT would be better or worse than the current economic framework that the Fed employs?
Doug: Yes. Abolish the Fed, and the system of fractional reserve banking. Reduce the size of the U.S. government by about 90%. Default on the national debt, so that future generations of Americans aren’t made into serfs… there are a number of things.
But the chances of a change in the long-term trend at this point are approximately zero. Put it this way: The chances are slim and none. And Slim’s out of town.
Justin: Doug, proponents of MMT say it would work because of the U.S. dollar’s status as the world’s reserve currency. Basically, they argue that the U.S. borrows in its own currency. Therefore, it can’t go bankrupt because it can just print more dollars when it needs to. What’s wrong with this thinking?
Doug: The U.S. dollar isn’t going to remain king forever. It’s in the process of being dethroned as we speak.
The Chinese, the Russians, and basically every other major economic power on the planet want to get rid of dollars. They realize dollars are the unbacked liability of a bankrupt government, even at this point. They don’t like having to use the dollar every time that they want to transfer assets. They don’t like the fact that everything they buy and sell in dollars has to be cleared through New York and is monitored by the U.S. government – their enemy. They understand how foolish it is to keep sending real goods to the U.S. in return for paper dollars, printed in unlimited amounts.
I suspect the rest of the world – believe it or not – is going back to gold. Simply because a trustworthy money is needed. They don’t trust each other’s currencies any more than the dollar.
At this point, the question from a practical point of view is, “What should you do with your money?”
You should own a lot of physical gold and silver. Keep a lot of it outside your home country. At some point within the lifetime of most people reading this right now, the dollar will lose all its value. It’s really serious.
Of course, I’ve been predicting gloom and doom for many years. It’s happened in slow motion, not an instantaneous catastrophe.
We’ll see what happens as we enter the trailing edge of the storm. Likely later this year.
Justin: Thanks for taking the time to speak with me today, Doug.
Doug: You’re welcome.
Published:3/17/2019 7:46:34 PM
Doug Casey On The Climate-Change Hoax, Part 2
Today, I continue my conversation with Doug Casey and Strategic Investoreditor E.B. Tucker on the great climate change hoax. If you missed part one, click here to catch up.
Below, the guys take a closer look at what’s really going on… and why all of the hysteria is actually a big threat…
Justin: Why peddle this idea that the Earth is warming rapidly? What’s the motive?
E.B.: Bigger government.
I mean, climate change has become a pop culture drumbeat. If you watch the Oscars, somebody is going to say, “We’ve got to do something about the climate.”
But no one, of course, knows what to do. All they know is that we should give the government more money to do something about this. And that money is obviously going to come from the developed world. I mean you’re not going to get any money if you implement a carbon tax in the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
So it’s basically just a giant tax scheme. I mean carbon taxes brought in $82 billion last year. That’s a big number. And no one even knows where this money goes. You can’t question it because everybody has the best of intentions.
Justin: It’s just one big money grab?
E.B.: It’s about more than just money. Carbon taxes give government much more control over commerce. When you buy an airline ticket to fly over Kansas, you’ve got to pay a bunch of money to a U.N. organization to mitigate the effect you have on the lower atmosphere or whatever as you fly through it in an airplane.
It’s stupid, but people go for it. I was in Mexico two weeks ago and took a domestic Aeroméxico flight. When I bought the ticket there was an option to “fly green” for an extra fee. The airline takes the money and buys carbon offset credits. It’s very popular actually. But no one really knows where that money goes.
And it’s only just the beginning. Now, you have Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez [AOC] saying the world will end in 12 years if we don’t do something about climate change. She’s proposing that we build trains across the ocean and rebuild every building in America to prevent this from happening. Somebody clearly benefits from all of this.
And it’s only going to get worse. You’ve got to put yourself in the mind of government bureaucrats, who are just businesspeople in government. Think of them as a government version of businesspeople.
They want their business to get as big as possible. And the U.S. government has never really collected more than roughly 18% to 20% of gross domestic product in taxes. But that’s not enough.
Let’s say that carbon taxes reach just 2% of economic output. For the developed world alone, that would mean around $1 trillion. It’s a serious amount of money.
So I think that climate change is a cover for big government. And it’s a great one. People will go for it. That’s why they’re pushing it so hard.
Justin: It’s clear neither of you thinks AOC’s Green New Deal is the answer. So what should be done about climate change? Anything?
Doug: Absolutely nothing should be done about it. As I’ve tried to indicate, the climate has a life of its own. If it’s affected at all by humans, our effect may be dwarfed by that of ants and termites – but that’s a whole other can of worms, as it were.
That’s not to say man can’t have a major effect on the Earth. Humans have wiped out a number of major species, from passenger pigeons to the buffalo. Both of those species once practically covered North America. And yes, we could probably pave the planet, and wipe out most life. But the exact opposite of that is more likely to happen.
The fact is that as technology improves – which is happening at the rate of Moore’s Law practically across the board – things become vastly more efficient, with much less waste. Not to mention the human population of the developed world is in an accelerating downtrend. CO2, which should be viewed as no more than necessary plant food, is a complete non-problem.
So, sure. Humans can have an effect on the planet, but not as major as the sun, volcanism, and other natural processes. The big danger isn’t climate change, it’s hysteria. And government, and the types who manipulate it, destroying the economy. I’m afraid that many scientists on the global warming bandwagon are there for purely selfish economic reasons. Unfortunately most science funding today is done directly and indirectly through the government. It’s a political process.
And if you’re a scientist who’s considered politically unreliable, who believes politically incorrect things, you’re not going to get the funding. You’re not going to get journals to publish your articles. You’re not going to get positions in universities, which are universally controlled by leftists. It’s interesting that the people who believe in AGW [anthropogenic global warming] are almost all leftists, and the people who don’t believe in it tend to be non-leftists.
Climate science has been turned from a legitimate branch of knowledge into a new age religion, where heretics are persecuted. It’s become a means to centralize even more power in the State. After all, the fate of the Earth is at stake!
So, it’s very advantageous to join the crowd if you’re a scientist, or at least not fight against it. It’s evidence of the corruption of science itself, which is really serious.
That’s another argument for getting the U.S. government 100% out of science of all types. The will, and the capital, to fund scientific projects will still exist. It just shouldn’t be allocated by the political process of government.
Justin: What threat does climate change pose to capitalism?
Doug: Climate change itself poses zero threat to capitalism. But the hysteria about it is a big threat. Why? Because the only way to alter something as major as the climate is through the government. You have to force people to do certain things and forbid them from doing other things. Power-hungry statists are using the hysteria as an excuse to do that.
Climate change has got an aura of moral righteousness about it. Marxists, socialists, and leftists are making Greenism into a new religion. Of course, it’s not designated as such; but these things are actually secular religions. They’re sold on the basis of being morally correct. They have dogmas, sins, saints, devils, clergy, heretics, crusades – the whole nine yards.
That’s a major reason why Greenism and global warmism are so popular. People always want to feel morally righteous, and that God is on their side. These things appeal to emotion, not reason. It’s all about psychology, not science.
Some of these people are actually saying it’s going to be the end of life on Earth – so you even have the religious idea of apocalypse. If there’s ever been any excuse for the people that hold these views to take control of everybody else, this is it.
It’s just further proof that there are two kinds of people in the world: people who like to control physical reality, and people who like to control other people.
It’s very clever on the part of these people to have harnessed pseudoscience and herded many scientists – although I don’t think it’s only a tiny but vocal minority – into the belief we’re all going to die because the oceans are going to drown us as the Earth turns into a giant steam bath.
How much warmer can things get than they’ve been since the last ice age ended 11,000 years ago? I don’t know and neither do they. How much longer is it going to be before we go into another ice age? I don’t know – and neither do they.
The real argument isn’t about earth science. It’s about political science.
And it’s very clever on the part of the people who are pushing it.
Justin: Great stuff. Thanks for speaking with me today, guys.
Doug: You’re welcome.
E.B.: No problem. It was a great conversation.
Published:3/4/2019 10:56:22 PM
Dems wrestle over how to vote on ‘Green New Deal’
Sen. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.), who once famously filmed a campaign ad in which he shot then-President Obama’s cap-and-trade climate proposal with a hunting rifle, said Wednesday he’s likely to vote “no.” “I got to work with reality. I got to make sure we have the benefit of affordable energy,” Manchin said. Asked about his colleague’s plan to vote present on the Green New Deal, Manchin responded, “They can do what they want to do. I’m not a present-type guy.” Other Democrats from coal-producing states, such as Sen. Bob Casey Jr. (Pa.) and Jon Tester (Mont.), said Wednesday they’re still reviewing the Green New Deal.
Published:2/28/2019 5:59:44 PM
White House economist says forecasts of recession don't make sense
It is puzzling that so many private-sector economists are forecasting a recession in 2020, Casey Mulligan, chief economist of the White House Council of Economic Advisers, said Thursday. A survey released by the National Association for Business Economics on Monday ahead of a conference showed that 42% of the economists expect the economy will sink into a recession in 2020 and 25% predicted the downturn would start in 2021."I'm pretty surprised by that sort of assessment," Mulligan told reporters after a speech at the NABE conference. Growth has been in the 2%-3% range over the past year, he noted. "What is it that is going to bump us off 2 points to get into the negative territory?" he asked. It would make more sense if growth had been around a tepid 1% rate, he said. Mulligan said he didn't think there was "that much uncertainty" in the outlook. He predicted economic growth would expand at "something around" a 3% annual rate this year, inline with prior White House forecasts. "I don't really see fundamental reasons why that would change," Mulligan said. The White House's new economic outlook will be included in the fiscal-year 2020 budget proposal to be released March 11.
Published:2/28/2019 10:58:45 AM
HBO will soon have far more shows, but just one potential ‘Game of Thrones’ prequel
In an interview, HBO programming chief Casey Bloys outlined a big increase in series for the premium-cable network, including a potential prequel for 'Game of Thrones,' its biggest-ever hit.
Published:2/9/2019 4:06:13 PM
Doug Casey On Toxic Masculinity And White Privilege
Gillette thinks men can do better.
The razor company made this clear in a controversial ad that came out on January 13. If you haven’t seen it yet, I suggest you take a couple minutes to watch it. As you’ll see, it’s a clear response to the #MeToo movement and the ongoing war on “toxic masculinity.”
It shouldn’t come as a surprise that there were a lot of strong opinions regarding it. Some people love it. Others despise it. But I wanted to hear what Doug Casey thought… So I called him up last week.
Below, Doug shares his thoughts on the ad… toxic masculinity… as well as white privilege.
Just a forewarning, this is one of the most controversial Conversations With Casey we’ve ever published. You might want to skip reading this one if you’re easily offended.
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Justin: Doug, what did you think of that Gillette ad?
Doug: The first thing that came to mind was that, when I was a kid in the ’50s, Schick razors used to sponsor boxing on television. Boxing, ritualized unarmed combat, is about the height of masculinity. It was, logically, sponsored by a razor company.
Now, we have a razor company that’s saying that almost any kind of masculinity is toxic. It’s a complete turnaround, an inversion. And, just as an FYI, Schick has run ads making the same point. As have Dollar Shave Club and Harry’s – both of which are owned by major corporations. I never previously cared what kind of razor I used – never even noticed the brand. But I’m simply not going to buy their stuff from now on, simply because I refuse to support these despicable people even on the tiniest level. I suppose I’ll give Porter Stansberry’s OneBlade razor a second shot. It’s a great shave, just rather retro.
Anyway, the Gillette ad basically says you should be ashamed to be a man, particularly if you’re a white man. The ad – which happens to have been directed by a woman I’ll describe as borderline psychotic – portrays men as horrible human beings. I haven’t done a count, but the only men even trying to do the right thing and moderate so-called toxic masculinity, are black men. So it’s not just that being a man is bad, but being a white man is particularly bad. No wonder 60,000 American white men commit suicide with opioids every year.
This is just one of many signs of the accelerating collapse of Western civilization and everything it stands for.
The whole politically correct [PC] culture has spread from universities, legislatures, entertainers, and the media into mainstream culture. Now, it’s reached the top of major corporations; it seems they all have “diversity officers” to ensure whites are put in their proper place. And if a corporation is involved in anything that impresses the morality police as even mildly non-PC, they don’t just abjectly apologize. They roll over on their backs like whipped dogs and wet themselves. It makes you sympathetic with Vanderbilt, when he said, “The public be damned.”
I don’t know how this is going to end, but trends in motion tend to stay in motion until they reach a crisis. And we’re heading for one at absolutely every level. Economically? That’s completely obvious. Politically? That’s completely obvious, too. It’s also clear that a psychological – spiritual, if you like – crisis is definitely in the making, too. A cultural crisis. This ad is indicative of that.
Justin: Yeah, the whole political correctness movement has taken on a life of its own. But I couldn’t help but wonder if the PC and outrage culture is about to peak. I mean how much worse can it get?
Doug: Well, the first time that I ever heard the term “politically correct” was on Saturday Night Live back in the early ’80s. I thought it was a spoof, part of a comedy gig. Maybe a riff on “politically unreliable,” a term the Soviets used to use. But it wasn’t. It was an opening shot for the whole movement. That movement has been gaining momentum, like an avalanche, for at least the last 40 years. It’s still gaining momentum.
Eventually there’s going to be some backlash. Probably a violent one. The popularity – no, celebrity status – of Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, a person with about as much worth as Venezuela’s Maduro – tells us that this thing hasn’t nearly peaked. All manner of Millennials are now “woke,” and emerging from the “safe space” in their parent’s basements.
Let me draw your attention to the fact there is no limit to how far out of control stupidity can get. Einstein was right. After hydrogen, it’s the most common thing in the universe.
We’ve already undergone a gradual revolution in economic thinking. It seems most people are now at least sympathetic, if not active supporters, of socialism and the welfare state.
We’ve had a slow-motion political revolution, with a gigantic and irreversible concentration of power in the State.
The next step seems inevitable. Cultural revolution.
As evidence for that assertion, let me point to China’s “Great Cultural Revolution” from about 1966 to 1976. The Red Guards, mostly teenagers and people in their twenties, took over the country. The idea was to destroy the “Four Olds” – old customs, old culture, old habits, and old ideas. China had already undergone a serious economic and political revolution since Mao took over after World War II. Now it was time to destroy what was left of traditional Chinese civilization.
Most people are unaware of how violent and completely out of control it became. Book burnings of pre-Mao literature. Red Guards – and everybody else if they were smart – waved Mao’s Little Red Book as “virtue signaling.” There was wholesale destruction of artwork, furniture, and clothing. Everyone, everywhere, wore “Mao suits” – your choice of grey, brown, or blue. Public shaming and beating. Millions were sent to the countryside for sessions of self and mutual criticism after 12 hours in the fields.
Is the U.S. Cultural Revolution going to be like the one in China? Not in its particulars, of course. This is 50 years later, and the U.S. isn’t full of starving workers and peasants. But something like it is underway. Social movements like Antifa, #MeToo, Black Lives Matter, and many others want major changes. They all want to be rid of old customs, old culture, old ideas, and old habits.
Everything associated with the old America is being discredited. Big things like free speech, the free market, individualism, limited government. Old religious traditions are debunked. The work ethic is laughed at, to be replaced by a guaranteed annual income. Little things from the car culture, to fast food, to houses in the suburbs are derided as toxic.
Don’t get me wrong. There are plenty of things – in America and everywhere else – I’d like to see improved. And what constitutes improvement is a matter of opinion, open to discussion. But a wholesale overturning of the culture is vastly more serious than degradations in economics and politics. What’s happening is an attempt at cultural revolution.
The average American doesn’t realize what’s going on. Just like the average Chinese in the ’60s, he’s got his hands full just keeping his head above water. He doesn’t like the cultural revolution on a gut level. But he doesn’t understand it. Or think about it.
Soon, however, there’s going to be reaction, a backlash. It’s likely to be much more serious and violent than what we saw in the U.S. in the ’60s. Why? In those days, college students were a small minority. And not all their professors were hard-core leftists. Now almost everybody goes to college, and the indoctrination and peer pressure are overwhelming. That’s compounded by the pervasive influence of the entertainment business and the media.
On the other hand, the traditionalists are big on the internet, looking for their own interpretation of current events. Jordan Peterson is getting some traction, for instance. They’re also coalescing around various banners – much more than was possible in the ’60s. The country is dividing into traditionalists and antitraditionalists, like two heavy weights on the ends of a barbell.
The economics and politics of the U.S. have changed a lot over the last couple of generations – in the direction of the antitraditionalists. But the cultural battleground is the biggie. I see absolutely no indication that current trends are peaking – rather the contrary.
Justin: So the focus of the Gillette ad was mainly toxic masculinity. But PC types are also really concerned about “white privilege.”
What are your thoughts on this concept? Does white privilege exist in your eyes? I mean, most people would agree that many white people enjoy some privileges over minorities.
Doug: Well, Western civilization is the product of Europe and America. And Europe and America have historically been run by white people. This has been true since the founding of Western civilization in the days of the ancient Greeks, up through the Romans, through the Renaissance, the Enlightenment, and Industrial Revolution. These are all exclusively products of Western civilization. Which, coincidentally, means the product of white males.
The so-called Social Justice Warriors, PC types, socialists, etc. and their numerous allies, hate Western civilization. Despite being – no, actually because it is – by far, by an order of magnitude, the freest, most accepting, most progress-oriented civilization ever. By an order of magnitude. And white males are inextricably associated with those values.
It’s very dangerous to talk about race these days because you’ll be accused of being either a racist or a Nazi – which are not the same things incidentally, but that’s a different discussion.
As I’ve explained before, everybody is a racist: blacks, whites, Chinese, you name it. We’re all racist. We tend to favor our own kind. Race is just the lowest common denominator. If there are no racial differences, people invent others – religious, political, cultural, what-have-you. You’ll recall Jonathan Swift talking about the Big Enders and the Little Enders – fighting over which end of a soft-boiled egg should be opened.
Religious groups are probably the worst offenders, after racial groups – which are just an accident of birth. Jews tend to favor Jews. Mormons tend to favor Mormons, Evangelicals prefer dealing with other Evangelicals.
I grew up with a lot of Irish Catholics, and if you weren’t an Irish Catholic you were suspect. This is not intellectually or morally admirable, but it’s genetically bred in human beings to favor your own kind.
At this point the U.S. has the makings of a race war. In the near future, whites will become a minority. They’ll represent less than 50% of the population. That plays nicely into the Identity Politics being promoted by the Left. They’re telling everyone that who you are as an individual isn’t nearly as important as what group you belong to.
Right now, it’s mostly a black/white divide. It’s incredibly stupid – but the Identity Politics agitators are encouraging blacks to see themselves first and foremost as blacks, not as individuals.
The fact is – and here’s a statement that many will find shocking – that the blacks who were stolen from Africa and enslaved were the lucky ones. As a libertarian, I’m opposed to slavery. That goes without saying. But blacks in the U.S. have it much better – about 30 times in economic terms – than blacks anywhere in Africa. Except the billionaire kleptocrats who control their governments.
Nobody can say with a straight face that blacks are held down by the whites in the U.S. It’s ridiculous. Black athletes are praised and worshiped by white people as much as white athletes. Black entertainers are paid tens of millions of dollars per year and idolized. There are plenty of very wealthy black businessmen. The black man in the U.S. can do absolutely anything that a white man can do.
However, this false meme that blacks are underprivileged has resulted in things like Affirmative Action. Which is totally counterproductive. If a black man graduates from a top university, everybody is suspicious of his credentials. Perhaps, they think, he got them through Affirmative Action.
Many people don’t want to have a black surgeon because he might be a product of Affirmative Action. Unlike having a Korean or a Chinese surgeon, who probably had to swim upstream, and be extra competent, to get to where he is.
The idea of “white privilege,” and blacks being held down as an underclass, is pernicious nonsense. Except, perversely, for the fact that white liberals are the ones who destroyed black culture by basically putting huge numbers of them on welfare, and essentially herding them into vertical ghettos in the inner city. White liberals, while claiming the moral high ground, are the ones who’ve turned the majority of blacks into an underclass, cemented to the bottom of society by the philosophy of Identity Politics, implemented by government programs.
Justin: What would you say are the objectives of these movements? Should we expect politicians to combat toxic masculinity and white privilege with legislation?
Doug: Of course. Having identified a non-problem, they’ll try to be heroes – with other people’s money – and use coercion to “solve” it. Now that the rabid left wing of the Demopublican Party controls the House, expect a flood of destructive proposals. There’s going to be more legislation that is pro-women, pro-colored people, pro-people with psychological or sexual aberrations, and pro-people of whatever the current meme is.
It’s only going to exacerbate the problem, which originated with legislation classifying people into groups according to their ethnic background or skin color. Sure, people tend to do that naturally. But when it’s solidified and concretized with laws, and they attempt to give privileges to the perceived underclass, that creates resentment, even hatred.
While, in the meantime, the trillions of dollars created by Central Banks has made the rich vastly richer while impoverishing the middle class. It’s building up to an explosion.
Legislation to solve a perceived problem usually makes it much worse. Almost everything government does winds up having the almost exact opposite effect that it’s intended to have.
The fact is that the average millennial is pro-socialism and pro-welfare. He accepts Neo-Marxist political and economic concepts as givens. And he buys into the idea of identity politics, where you’re viewed not as an individual but as black, a woman, or some other subdivision.
My main question is to what degree the cultural revolution will be violent. It may well be, especially since people seem to be self-segregating into red and blue areas. I can’t see that this is going to turn around and get better. When the economy collapses, which it will over the next couple of years, it’s likely to be a match to the social tinderbox these people have created over at least 50 years.
So, I’m not very optimistic about how this is going to sort out. If you want to be entertained, just turn off the audio on the news in the future and put The Rolling Stones’ “Street Fighting Man” on continuous loop. That’s all the audio you’re going to need.
I’m well aware that if this interview is widely circulated in Europe or Canada I could be banned from those places. But frankly I don’t give a damn.
Justin: Thanks for speaking with me today, Doug.
Doug: You’re welcome.
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If you’re not offended by these discussions, you’ll definitely want to get your hands on Doug’s book: Totally Incorrect 2. It’s his most controversial book yet… as well as a vital guide for surviving the changes happening in America today. This book isn’t available anywhere else right now. Learn how to get your copy right here.
Published:2/2/2019 6:25:31 PM
Crossing Borders With Gold And Silver Coins
Authored by Doug Casey via InternationalMan.com,
It’s well-known that you have to make a declaration if you physically transport $10,000 or more in cash or monetary instruments in or out of the US, or almost any other country; governments collude on these things, often informally.
Gold has always been in something of a twilight zone in that regard. It’s no longer officially considered money. So it’s usually regarded as just a commodity, like copper, lead, or zinc, for these purposes. The one-ounce Canadian Maple Leaf and US Eagle both say they’re worth $50 of currency.
But I’ve had some disturbing experiences over the past couple of years crossing borders with coins. Of course, crossing any national border is potentially disturbing at any time. You might find yourself interrogated, strip searched, or detained for any reason or no reason. But I suspect what happened to me crossing a few borders in recent times could be a straw in the wind.
I’ve gradually accumulated about a dozen one-ounce silver rounds in my briefcase, some souvenirs issued by mining companies, plus others from Canada, Australia, China, and the US. But when I left Chile not long ago, the person monitoring the X-ray machine stopped me and insisted I take them out and show them to her. This had never happened before, but I wrote it off to chance. Then, when I was leaving Argentina a few weeks later, the same thing happened. What was really unusual was that the inspector looked at them, took them back to his supervisor, and then asked if I had any gold coins. I didn’t, he smiled, and I went on.
What really got my attention was a few weeks later when I was leaving Mauritania, one of the world’s more backward countries. Here, I was also questioned about the silver coins. A supervisor was again called over and asked me whether I had any gold coins. Clearly, something was up.
I haven’t seen any official statements about the movement of gold coins, but it seems probable that governments are spreading word to their minions. After all, $10,000 in $100 bills is a stack about an inch high; it’s hard to hide, and clearly a lot of money. But even at currently depressed prices, $10,000 is only nine Maple Leafs, a much smaller volume. Additionally, the coins are immune to currency-sniffing dogs, are much less likely to be counterfeit, and don’t have serial numbers. And if they’re set aside for a few years, they won’t be damaged by water, fire, insects, currency inflation, or the complete replacement of a currency. Gold coins are in many ways an excellent way to subvert capital controls. And I think they’ll become much more popular in that role.
That’s because, all over the world, paper cash is disappearing. People are moving away from paper cash. That’s partially because there are fewer and fewer bank branches where you can cash a check, and ATM machines are costly to use. And partially because everybody has a cell phone and they’re starting to use them for even trivial purchases, like a cup of coffee. Governments are encouraging this because if all purchases, sales, and payments are made electronically, they’ll know exactly what you’re doing with your money.
From their point of view, the elimination of cash will have several major benefits: It decreases the opportunity for tax evasion, it decreases the possibilities of “money laundering,” it eliminates the expense of printing currency, it obviates counterfeiting, and it gives the state instant access to all of any individual’s cash. From an individual’s point of view, however, the safety and freedom offered by a stack of paper cash will disappear.
Much of the safety and freedom offered by foreign banks and brokerage accounts has already disappeared. Few people seem aware of the fact that not so long ago, there was no limit to the amount of cash you could transfer in or out of the US without reporting. Or that you didn’t have to report the existence of offshore bank or brokerage accounts (although you did have to report taxable income from them).
That changed in 1970, first with the passage of USC 3156, and then the perversely-named Bank Secrecy Act. The 1986 Tax Reform Act made it highly inconvenient, and largely uneconomic, to invest in passive foreign investment companies (PFICs). In 2010, the Foreign Account Tax Compliance Act (FATCA) required every foreign financial institution in the world to report info on US persons to the US government. The enormous regulatory burdens and potential penalties it imposes now make it very hard to find a foreign institution that will even open an account for an American.
These are all de facto capital controls. In the US, banks are starting to notify customers that they’re not responsible for the storage of cash, or gold, in their safe deposit boxes. When I was in New Zealand a while back, I was surprised to see that the suburban branch of a major bank was closing down its substantial safe deposit box department.
When I inquired why, the manager only knew that it was a new policy and if I wanted a box, I’d have to go to the main branch. This seems to be another worldwide trend. If there isn’t a safe place to store paper cash or gold, then people will be less likely to possess them.
But it’s getting worse. In recent times, a bill was passed that allows the US to deny issuance, or cancel, the passport of anyone who is simply accused of owing $50,000 or more in taxes. After all, it clearly states on your passport that it’s government property and it must be turned in on request. People are actually the most valuable form of capital. Emigration has always been nearly impossible from authoritarian regimes.
So what’s next? I expect, as the subtle war on both cash and the transfer of capital across borders gains momentum, that gold coins are going to become the next focus of attention. So I suggest you act now to beat the last minute rush.
Have a meaningful percentage of your net worth in gold coins.
Have a significant number of those coins stored outside the country of your citizenship.
Concentrate your future purchases in small coins that are indistinguishable from loose change. Things like British sovereigns (.23 oz of gold) or their continental equivalents (French, Swiss, German, Danish, Russian, etc., pieces of generally .18 oz of gold). Not only is gold cheap now, but all of these are currently at only a few percent above melt. Happily, they have collectible value, and they resemble common pocket change to an X-ray machine.
Also, do this: Put a bunch of silver Eagles in your brief case the next time you travel internationally and let me know if your experience resembles my own.
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Published:1/30/2019 4:04:18 AM
'Election-Meddler' Wasserman Schultz Now "Fixing Democracy" In Venezuela
Regime change and foreign interventions are things that the two US ruling parties agree on regardless of how much they exchange blows at home. Venezuela is the latest place where Republicans and Democrats have found common ground.
If you watch the US media, you know what is happening in Venezuela: Dictator Nicolas Maduro is brutally suppressing the people he has been robbing for years, and now they have revolted and elected a true representative of their interest, the one true legitimate acting president Juan Guaido.
And now, as RT's Alexandre Antonov reports below, it’s up to America to ‘fix’ democracy by whatever means necessary.
The House Foreign Affairs Committee has even offered a simple explanation on how a ‘dream team’ of Democrats have prepared a package of laws, which will ensure Venezuela’s transition into a better future.
Debbie Mucarsel-Powell will be bringing humanitarian aid, Donna Shalala will stop the arming of Maduro’s thugs with batons and tear gas, while Debbie Wasserman Schultz gets arguably the hardest task of them all – taking on Russia’s President Vladimir Putin.
You know, the one who – according to the current dogma of the American left establishment – already denied the Democrats the presidency in 2016 and whose puppet Donald Trump is currently trying to topple the Venezuelan government for some reason that only a 5-dimensional-chess master can understand.
Wasserman Schultz may hold a personal grudge against Putin. She had to resign as the Chair of the Democratic National Committee after leaked documents revealed how it was playing on the side of Hillary Clinton and against Bernie Sanders in 2016. The leak is widely attributed to Russia by American politicians and media.
The irony of Wasserman Schultz now being on the frontline of bringing democracy to Venezuela didn’t go unnoticed by Jill Stein, the head of the Green Party.
Stein is one of a handful of American politicians, who has publicly rejected American interference in Venezuela, saying it would be a greed-motivated disaster similar to those the US brought to Libya, Syria, Yemen, Honduras and Ukraine.
But who cares? Americans were told already that Stein is just a Putin tool stealing votes from Clinton and working for RT. Those were smears, but ‘alternative facts’ are not an invention of the Trump administration.
Opposing Washington’s regime change is a dangerous cause. Say a word of doubt, and you’ll find yourself in a virtual concentration camp for Putin puppets, Assad apologists and Maduro mouthpieces.
Just let the people who know how to cook up real democracy do their good work, right?
Published:1/28/2019 4:14:13 AM