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[World] WARNING: ISIS plotting attack on US soil...
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Published:8/15/2014 3:46:20 PM
[Entertainment] Report: Casey Kasem to be buried in Norway The iconic DJ is to be be buried in Oslo according to the latest reports.
Published:8/15/2014 9:15:42 AM
[News you can use] Media Alert: Bill Bennett Show Thursday (Steven Hayward) Mark your calendar: I’ll be guest-hosting Bill Bennett’s “Morning in America” radio show this Thursday morning, from 6 – 9 am eastern time.  You can find your local station through the show’s website,  We’re still working out the guest list, but it looks to include the great and fascinating Herbert Meyer, Bill Casey’s right hand man at the CIA during the Reagan years, and who was one of the Published:8/12/2014 7:05:06 PM
[Recession] Peter Schiff And Doug Casey On The "Real" State Of The Economy

Submitted by Nick Giambruno of Doug Casey's International Man blog,

One of my favorite podcasts to listen to is The Peter Schiff Show (

Peter always does an excellent job of dissecting the latest economic news and cutting through the smoke and mirrors of government statistics.

Recently he had Doug Casey on his radio show to discuss what’s really happening with the economy. And it’s nothing close to what the talking heads in the financial media would have you believe.

I’m happy to bring this fascinating discussion to International Man readers. I think you’ll not only enjoy it, but you’ll also learn something too.

Until next time,

Nick Giambruno, Senior Editor

Peter Schiff: Joining our program now is Doug Casey, and if you don’t know Doug, he is a libertarian economist. He is a bestselling financial author. He’s an international investor, entrepreneur, and founder/chairman of Casey Research. They publish a monthly newsletter, Casey International Speculator, and most recently Doug has produced a 30-minute documentary called Meltdown America, which I watched just yesterday on the Internet for free. I would encourage everybody to watch it. It’s a very entertaining half hour.

Doug, welcome to The Peter Schiff Show.

Doug Casey: Thanks, Peter. It’s my pleasure.

Peter: So in particular about your movie, which I thought was well done, the story that was most compelling to me was the interview with the gentlemen from Zimbabwe who had lived there most of his life. He was prosperous, had a business, and then had the foresight to read the writing on the wall, leave everything behind, and flee to Australia. He warned his friends—who made fun of him—and they then ended up having their property seized.

Doug: Yes, it’s an absolutely true story, of course. I’ve spent a lot of time in Zimbabwe and before that in Rhodesia over the years. I think the first time I went there was in 1976. His story is quite accurate about what happened in Zimbabwe, but it’s happened in a number of places in the world, and it’s going to happen in other places in the future. This is because most people don’t realize that as big as their investment risks are today with many markets being overinflated and so forth, their biggest risks are actually political risks. The biggest danger to you is your own government. In his case it was the Zimbabwe government. I guess most of the people listening now are Americans, and actually the US government is like a predator stalking us on the African plains.

Peter: What really is compelling about the story and what people should really take to heart is the attitude that pervades is that, well, it’s not going to happen here. It can’t happen here. People don’t want to think about that worst-case scenario. They want to assume that things are going to be okay, and if somebody is warning about this potential doomsday, that is the person whom they ridicule, who they say, oh, you’re crazy, that’s never going to happen, and, it happens in places like Zimbabwe. But expand on it, because it’s happening in America.

Doug: Well look, I hate to sound like a Cassandra, a gloomy Gus. I hate to say the sky is falling, and I know you do too. But you’ve got to be realistic. I don’t call it America anymore. I call it the US because although America is a fantastic idea, a wonderful idea, America as a concept is rapidly disappearing from the land area called the United States. So yeah, I hate to sound gloomy, because there are lots of reasons for optimism that we can recount. We have more scientists and engineers alive today now than we’ve had in all previous history put together. So that’s cause for optimism. But there is a lot of cause for real pessimism certainly in the short term, in the next decade or so in the US, and it could get worse from there. So you and I are pretty much on the same page economically, and it makes me a little uncomfortable having to be gloomy, but I have to be. I have to assess the facts.

Peter: Yeah, you can’t ignore the facts. So you don’t like to say that the sky is falling, but then if you see it falling, you don’t want to just pretend that you don’t see what you see because that’s worse. I mean, it’s better to warn about the catastrophes. Maybe your warnings could help put into effect policies that might avert the catastrophe, or if you can’t do that, at least help as many people as possible prepare for it in advance so that they don’t get hit by surprise.

Doug: Yes, although I greatly discount the odds of things changing because policies and governments have a momentum of their own. Imagine a village at the bottom of a valley, and that 100 years ago collectivism and statism started out as a small snowball, and now that snowball has turned into a giant avalanche. Now once it gets to the giant avalanche stage, you can’t stop it. So I’m afraid that the village at the bottom of the valley is going to be smashed, so you’ve got to run for high ground. I don’t think we can stop it at this point. The trend is too entrenched, too far in motion, and the fact that 50% of Americans are reliant upon the government for their income alone is a guarantee of bad things to come.

Peter: Yeah, and Doug, you have been an observer, a critic of this trend that has been ongoing in America for a long time. I mean, it’s not like we suddenly find ourselves on the precipice of disaster. We’ve been on that precipice for a long time. It’s kind of amazing that we haven’t fallen over just yet, but it’s been a long time building. Even my dad was in this camp back in the ‘70s, issuing warnings. But what do you see today that might make you think that this is the endgame? I mean there can’t be another couple of decades where you’re going to be sounding the alarm.

Doug: Yeah, that’s a very interesting point, Peter. When do we reach the actual endgame as opposed to just an accelerating downturn? I would say that it started in 2007. I think that’s the endgame because the Fed’s balance sheet—which is the best indicator of how much actual new money they’re creating—has gone from $500 billion to $4.5 trillion just in the last five years, and they’re still creating more. So they’ve shot all their arrows and when the economy turns down again—and I think it is in process of doing that now—there’s nothing they can do. They have already reduced interest rates to near zero, the Chinese and the Japanese aren’t buying any more government debt, and the official number is $500 billion a year of deficit now, so the Federal Reserve is going to be printing up money wholesale. This is a very scary thing, so yeah, I think we actually have reached the actual edge of the precipice.

Peter: And the amazing thing, too, and you point this out is they’re telling us we’ve been in a recovery for five years. This means statistically we’re also getting close to the next recession. Just by the probability, how long the expansion has been, yet we’ve never begun a recession where rates are still at zero. We’ve never begun a recession while they are still stimulating us from the previous recession. And nobody seems to worry about the outcome of entering a recession from the position that we are in right now.

Doug: And the numbers that they crank out to make everybody feel good are almost as phony as the numbers that the Argentine government cranks out. I live in Argentina most of the year and there, the Cristina Fernández government says well, we only have 10% inflation. But everybody knows that it’s 30 to 40%. And here they say we have 1-2% inflation. I would say that inflation is realistically in the 8-10% range here in the US—and it’s going much higher.

Peter: And that makes a lot more sense to me, given what I’m observing in the actual economy. The critics who argue that that’s impossible, that the people who think that inflation is more than 2-3% percent, they say they must be wrong, because that would mean that the economy has not experienced any legitimate economic growth. And to that I would say, absolutely, it hasn’t. The growth is all a fantasy. It’s all a result of the assumption that there is no inflation, when there really is because what we have is inflation masquerading as economic growth. But the bottom line is the economy is really contracting, that’s why the labor force is shrinking, that’s why we’re using less energy, that’s why the people’s standard of living is going down, and real incomes are falling and job opportunities are disappearing. It’s because we’re in a recession and no one wants to admit it.

Doug: You are absolutely right, and from this point it is going to get much more obvious and get much worse. I just wonder what the social consequences are going to be when the economy goes into a free-fall again, maybe by the end of this year. I think certainly next year. I mean it’s an open question whether people will riot.

Peter: You can already see the frustration. I often joke, if this is the Obama recovery, imagine how bad the recession is going to be. And you know, we’re running these deficits. The president is bragging now that the deficit is finally below $1 trillion, that it might be $600-700 billion, but that’s the deficit in the recovery. If we slip into a legitimate or acknowledged recession, where are the deficits going to go, $1.5 trillion, $2 trillion? And how can we possibly finance that when the world is already saturated with the debt that we’ve issued to stimulate us out of prior recessions?

Also, I’ve got to get to gold and silver, something that I know you’ve been advocating for a while. When it comes to gold and silver, I’ve never seen an environment where you have so many central banks embracing inflation as a goal, that they want more inflation, and they somehow think that it’s going to help the economy; and at the same time you have complete complacency on the part of investors to any of the risks associated with inflation that all these central bankers are promising to create.

Doug: As you are well aware, Peter, it was Lenin who said the best way to destroy a country is to debauch its currency. It’s perverse and idiotic what all the central banks around the world are doing at this point. But some are worse than others. The Europeans are out of control. The Japanese are out of control. The Chinese Central Bank and of course the Fed here in the US are out of control. So that’s one reason why I continue accumulating gold. It’s the only financial asset that’s not simultaneously somebody else’s liability.

Peter: Yeah, and you’ve been a buyer for a long time, a regular buyer and holder of metals. What do you think it’s going to take, though, to convince the skeptics who are so in love with paper and who make fun of the gold bugs for their irrational obsession with this obscure obsolete yellow metal? What do you think it is going to take for the mainstream to start buying into gold and silver, and of course the mining stocks?

Doug: I think it’s going to take a financial and economic collapse. I hate to say it, but I think we are on the edge of something that is much worse than what we had in 2008 and 2009. I look around the world at places where you can put your capital, real estate is overpriced, the stock market is greatly overpriced, the bond market is in a historic bubble, that’s about the best short sale I can think of in the world. So what are you left with? Gold is not a giveaway the way it was in 2001 at $250 an ounce, but it is reasonably priced, so I’m going to continue to buy it. I think there’s going to be a panic into gold, quite frankly.

Peter: You know, Doug, I think it could be just as big a giveaway now. If you look at the cost of production of gold today versus what it was 12 years ago, it costs a lot more to produce gold, and if you look at the amount of money that the central banks have created over the past 12 years and the amount of money that they are threatening to create, I think you could make a case that gold is cheaper now at $1,200 than it was at $300.

Doug: Well, when you look at the cost of mining new gold, there are about 80 million ounces produced every year, and there are perhaps six billion in total existence. Most of the mining companies in the world, the big ones like Barrick and Newmont, it’s not profitable for them to produce gold even at $1,300 an ounce when you consider all the costs of mining. So yes, I wouldn’t argue with you.

Peter: You talk about a bubble in assets like stocks and real estate. The irony of it is, the professional investors who are happily paying ridiculous valuations for stocks, the only bubble that they can identify is the one that doesn’t exist—except in their minds—and that is the bubble that they see in gold.

Doug: Yes, that’s right. The real bubble is in the bond market, and the bond market is much bigger than the stock market, so when the bubble in bonds bursts, it’s going to be very ugly. I’ve got to make a distinction, and I think you will agree with this. I’ve bought gold my whole life. I’ve never sold one ounce because I buy it for safety, for savings, prudence, and insurance. But I’ve also been very involved in gold stocks for many years, and gold stocks are a different animal than gold itself, and I treat them as a speculative vehicle because gold stocks are perhaps the most volatile class of securities in the world. The Vancouver Stock Exchange, which trades about 1,500 supposed gold companies, regularly goes up ten for one and then collapses 95%. As we speak at this time, it’s at a cyclical bottom. So I think it’s an extremely high-potential speculation to get into gold stocks at this time.

(Editor's note: You may want to check out our Casey International Speculator publication which specializes in finding high-potential speculative opportunities in junior mining companies.)

Peter: Yeah, I agree with you. Of the nations that you travel to, which would you consider to be the most stable, maybe the ones that offer the best not only investment opportunity, but opportunity to live if you want to leave the United States?

Doug: Well, the fact of the matter is that all over the world these governments collude with each other in these clubs they belong to like the United Nations, the IMF, and the OECD, and they are all going in the wrong direction, which is to say more state power, more taxes, and more control. I’ve been to most of the countries in the world, and where I spend most of my time is in Argentina. The people there are used to stupidity from their government and despise their government.

Peter: Well, that’s for sure, Doug. They are prepared for stupidity, unlike Americans who are going to be surprised by it.

Editor’s Note: Be sure to check out for more on Peter’s superb radio show. Also, don’t forget to catch our new free documentary Meltdown America, which discusses how to survive an economic collapse with examples from Zimbabwe, Argentina, and Yugoslavia. You won’t want to miss it.

Published:7/30/2014 10:22:28 PM
[7144bf40b1787410VgnVCM100000d7c1a8c0RCRD] Kerri Kasem backs new bill to help children visit ailing parents Kerri Kasem, the eldest daughter of the late radio host Casey Kasem, spent the last year fighting her stepmom Jean over accusations of elder abuse and the right to visit her ailing father. Published:7/30/2014 6:44:58 AM
[World] REPORT: Hamas Morale Collapsing...

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Video Shows ISIS Blowing Up Iraq's Tomb of Jonah...

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Published:7/25/2014 11:54:43 AM
[24ebb02345d67410VgnVCM100000d7c1a8c0RCRD] Mystery still surrounds the whereabouts of Casey Kasem’s remains More than a month after Casey’s Kasem’s June 15 death, the family feud over the famous radio personality still continues, and the whereabouts of his body are unknown. Published:7/25/2014 11:54:43 AM
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Published:7/19/2014 4:46:55 AM
[97fd5b86bca47410VgnVCM100000d7c1a8c0RCRD] Casey Kasem's body missing, report says Casey Kasem's daughter is claiming that a month after the passing of her father, he's yet to be buried. Published:7/18/2014 2:54:17 PM
CASEY KASEM DEAD...Netanyahu Blames Hamas in Seizure of Israeli Teenagers...Disappeared without a trace...Hillary's Book tour from Hell...Drudge, Karl Rove Planting 'False Information'...Interactive test claims life expectancy; Based on stress levels, diet and lifestyle...Poachers kill one of world's largest elephants in Kenya...REPORT: Released Taliban prisoners have personal masseur, luxury living...Pope Francis ditches bulletproof Popemobile...'At my age I don't have much to lose'... DRAMA: Supreme Court has 17 cases to decide by month's end...BIPARTISAN: Cantor Says Immigration Views Angered People in Both Parties...Brazil takes vacation time to new level for World Cup... Prostitutes play football match on sidelines...FIFA to probe flying drone above France camp...Kuwait top court jails activist over insulting emir...Tell-all book reveals backstage secrets of Jay Leno show's 22-year run... LeBron James is comfortable, win or lose...Wise move?Jets to Palm Springs For Golf...Australia Sees 'Plan' as All Talk, No Action...

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Published:6/15/2014 10:47:23 AM
[Music] Casey Kasem dies at 82; tributes pour in
Keep your feet on the ground and keep reaching for the stars. We’ll miss you, Casey.

Legendary radio disc jockey Casey Kasem, who invented the top-40 countdown and served as the longtime voice of Shaggy on the children’s cartoon “Scooby Doo,” died Sunday at age 82. Almost immediately as the news broke, tributes started to pour in, including this emotional one from his daughter, Kerri Kasem:

Read full article >>

Published:6/15/2014 10:47:23 AM
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Published:6/12/2014 11:35:01 AM
Another Hillary gaffe at Chicago appearance...Computers will be like humans by 2029...IMF sounds global housing alarm...

Warns world must act to contain risk of another crash...
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Judge rules Casey Kasem to be taken off feeding and fluid tubes...STUDY: High protein diet significantly reduces risk of stroke...Camp of 5,000 squatters springs up in Sao Paulo...

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Published:6/11/2014 4:53:35 PM
[World] British Records for Abortions of Down's Syndrome Babies Missing

A new investigation by the British government has found that hundreds of Down's Syndrome babies aborted by British clinics have disappeared from records, supposedly due to poor administration.

The investigation found that British clinic doctors have broken the law by not keeping proper records. Perhaps as many as half the aborted Down's Syndrome babies were not properly recorded.

Saying that "the bulk of terminations" in Britain occur to eliminate Down's Syndrome babies, The Daily Mail goes on to report abortions are being misidentified as "social abortions."

The Mail reports that, "The investigation, published on the Department of Health website, shows that in 2012 a total of 994 babies were aborted for Down’s Syndrome, according to the independent National Down’s Syndrome Cytogenetic Register."

But the investigation found that the department of Health only recorded 496 cases, "meaning that 498 cases were classed as missing."

The reason this is known is that Down's Syndrome pregnancies are reported separately to the government and government officials have correlated the reporting.

Under the Abortion Act, termination of a baby with Down’s Syndrome is legal right up to the point of delivery. Such terminations are hugely controversial because due to medical advances, children with Down’s can now expect to live until their fifties and sixties. Tory MP Fiona Bruce, chairman of the recent independent parliamentary inquiry into abortion for disability, said it was clear doctors had broken the law.

The paper goes on to report that the Department of Health has made no effort to make sure that this law is enforced.

"We now know that nearly half of abortions for Down’s Syndrome were incorrectly recorded. How many doctors were referred for investigation? None," MP Bruce said.

"It was horrifying to read that 11 Down’s Syndrome abortions post 24 weeks do not even appear in the official dataset," Professor Joan Morris, director of the NDSCR, said.

Critics of aborting babies with Down's Syndrome charge that such abortions are only a matter of convenience, not necessity.

"The abortion isn’t for the sake of the child; it’s for the sake of the parent. They don’t want an inconvenient child, a baby who may require them to work a little harder than they planned," Casey Fiano of Life Site News wrote in October of 2013.

Follow Warner Todd Huston on Twitter @warnerthuston or email the author at

Published:6/9/2014 3:09:41 AM
[Markets] Stocks to Watch: Stocks to Watch: Layne Christensen, Ferrellgas, Casey’s Among the companies whose shares are expected to see active trade in Monday’s session are Layne Christensen, Ferrellgas Partners and Casey’s General Stores.
Published:6/9/2014 12:02:42 AM
[Markets] Stocks to watch Monday: Layne Christensen, Ferrellgas, Casey's Stocks to watch Monday: Layne Christensen, Ferrellgas, Casey's Published:6/8/2014 7:16:53 AM
[Recession] There Is No Tradeoff Between Inflation And Unemployment

Submitted by Chris Casey of The Ludwig von Mises Institute,

Anyone reading the regular Federal Open Market Committee press releases can easily envision Chairman Yellen and the Federal Reserve team at the economic controls, carefully adjusting the economy’s price level and employment numbers. The dashboard of macroeconomic data is vigilantly monitored while the monetary switches, accelerators, and other devices are constantly tweaked, all in order to “foster maximum employment and price stability." The Federal Reserve believes increasing the money supply spurs economic growth, and that such growth, if too strong, will in turn cause price inflation. But if the monetary expansion slows, economic growth may stall and unemployment will rise. So the dilemma can only be solved with a constant iterative process: monetary growth is continuously adjusted until a delicate balance exists between price inflation and unemployment. This faulty reasoning finds its empirical justification in the Phillips curve. Like many Keynesian artifacts, its legacy governs policy long after it has been rendered defunct.

In 1958, New Zealand economist William Phillips wrote The Relation between Unemployment and the Rate of Change of Money Wage Rates in the United Kingdom, 1861-1957. The paper described an apparent inverse relationship between unemployment and increases in wage levels. The thesis was expanded in 1960 by Paul Samuelson in substituting wage levels with price levels. The level of price inflation and unemployment were thereafter linked as opposing forces: increasing one decreases the other, and vice versa. The US data from 1948 through 1960 comparing the year-over-year increases in the average price level with the average annual unemployment rate seemed irrefutable:


The first dent in the Phillips curve came from Chicago-School economist Milton Friedman (as well as, independently, Edmund Phelps) who suggested it was more temporary than timeless, more illusion than illustration. Friedman’s “fooling model” posited that price inflation fooled workers into accepting employment at “higher” wage rates despite lower real rates as measured after the impact of price inflation. Once they realized the difference between “real” and “nominal” wages (the fools!), they would demand higher nominal rates as compensation. As inflation rose, unemployment declined, but only temporarily until a new equilibrium was achieved. This simple insight created quite a stir and troubled noted econo-sadist Paul Krugman: “when I was in grad school, I remember lunchtime conversations that went something like this; ‘I just don’t buy the ... stuff — it’s not remotely realistic.’ ‘But these people have been right so far, how can you be sure they aren’t right now?’"

The Friedman criticism was somewhat clever, but unnecessary, minor, and misguided, for cold data was far more damaging than Chicago doctrine. The Phillips curve not only evaporated with the 1970s, but reversed to show a positive correlation between price inflation and unemployment:

In light of this, like many Keynesian concepts, the Phillips curve should have been forever abandoned when the 1970s proved high price inflation and unemployment rates can coexist. But now the Phillips curve is back from the dead. Krugman, writing in 2013, introduced new data demonstrating the Phillips curve’s “resurrection.” According to Krugman: How many economists realize that the data since around 1985 — that is, since the Reagan-Volcker disinflation — actually look a lot like an old-fashioned Phillips curve?

This Krugman comment is correct, US data from 1985 through 2013 again shows an inverse correlation between the year-over-year increases in the average price level with the average annual unemployment rate:

Has the Phillips curve, as Krugman suggests, regained its former acceptance? Since 1985, why has its inverse relationship between price inflation and unemployment reappeared? The question is irrelevant: the fact that it had previously disappeared forever strips the Phillips curve of legitimacy.

Any apparent correlation between two variables may be coincidental and unrelated, directly casual, or linked by a third variable or sets of variables. For price inflation and unemployment, the last explanation is the correct one. Price inflation and unemployment are not opposing forces, but in large part effects deriving from the same causation — the expansion of the money supply.

More money cheapens its value and the price of goods and services accordingly rise in terms of money — hence price inflation. More money lowers interest rates which induce malinvestments (including the hiring of workers) which (who) are eventually liquidated (terminated) in a recession — hence unemployment. While both phenomena largely share a common origin, the timing of their manifestations may be quite different and heavily dependent upon other variables, including fiscal policy.

The death of the Phillips curve will eventually be served not from Chicago School gimmicks, not from the experience of the 1970s, but from greater acceptance of the Austrian School’s explanations of price inflation and business cycles. Unfortunately, in the interim, the monetary policies promoted by the Phillips curve have moved from 1970s lunchtime academic discussion to official government policy. In the hands of the Federal Reserve, the Phillips curve becomes weaponized Keynesianism.

Due to its unjustified acceptance of the Phillips curve and its related misconceptions about price inflation and business cycles, the Federal Reserve will never be able to trade higher price inflation for lower unemployment. Nor can it sacrifice higher unemployment for lower price inflation. But it can, and likely will, generate high levels of both. If the Federal Reserve’s economic controls appear broken, it is because they never really worked in the first place.

Published:6/7/2014 10:09:32 AM
[World] The ACA: Some Unpleasant Welfare Arithmetic

The Affordable Care Act (ACA) presents employers and potential employees with a variety of new rewards and penalties. However, University of Chicago researcher Casey B. Mulligan suggests that these rewards and penalties have effects beyond what the law intended, including on the incentive to work. Mulligan’s new research shows that the ACA will put millions of workers in the economically extreme situation of having zero short-term financial reward (or less) to working full-time rather than part-time.

Published:6/4/2014 6:52:37 AM
[World] Bergdahl: 'I am ashamed to be an American'...
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Called N Word By Group Of Assailants...
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Published:6/1/2014 10:19:58 PM
[5dde9b17b8b26410VgnVCM100000d7c1a8c0RCRD] Casey Kasem's wife served with guardianship papers The wife of ailing radio personality Casey Kasem was served Friday with a California court order that temporarily suspends her powers to determine her husband's medical care amid concerns about his health and welfare. Published:5/24/2014 12:26:39 AM
[World] Fast Food Workers Strike Again for Higher Wages...
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Published:5/15/2014 7:23:57 AM
[Music] Police find Casey Kasem after his daughter files missing persons report

Missing radio personality Casey Kasem was found in Washington Wednesday, according to an exclusive report by the New York Daily News.

Kerri Kasem, Kasem’s daughter, filed a missing persons report with the Santa Monica police department Wednesday. Said the Daily News:

Read full article >>

Published:5/15/2014 1:34:07 AM
[Comedy] American Voices: Casey Kasem Missing A judge has ordered an investigation into the whereabouts of Casey Kasem, the 82-year-old radio personality known for his years of hosting the nationally syndicated American Top 40 countdown show, who has gone missing from his Los Angeles home.

Published:5/13/2014 5:25:32 PM
[8bc8316d8d1f5410VgnVCM100000d7c1a8c0RCRD] Casey Kasem's whereabouts unknown: Investigator ordered to track down ailing radio host A judge has appointed one of Casey Kasem's daughters as his temporary conservator after expressing concerns about the safety and whereabouts of the ailing radio personality. Published:5/12/2014 11:35:49 AM
[World] Value Add: Wright, McDermott Hold Onto Top Spots

It appears Utah's Delon Wright will hold onto the top Value Add ranking in the updated Top 100 below despite Shabazz Napier's incredible tournament run. Doug McDermott will be the most valuable offensive player by the second largest margin of any year. Wright improved Utah's scoring margin by 8.39 points per game, while McDermott was worth 8.30 on offense but slightly less (7.07) once defense was accounted for in a system explained by Sports Illustrated here

The Value Add system accounts for every statistic available for each player that either hurts the team's scoring margin or helps it over what would happen if a good bench player from a power conference took his place. For example, based on Wright's 8.39 rating we would expect that if Utah won a game 75-68 on a given night, that if a good bench player had taken his place that night they would have lost 70-71 (5 more points generated by Wright on offense, and three points taken away from opponents). Most fans assume the impact would be greater, but when a star player is lost the second best player gets more shots, etc., and a player who changes the score by eight points a game on average will normally dramatically improve his team's record. Utah had only one other player in the Top 700 players.

The players who still have games left to impact their rating are marked "alive," but Napier is probably too far behind Wright (improves UConn's score by 8.05) to catch him even if he led the Huskies to the title, and he is way ahead of third-place Sean Kilpatrick of Cincinnati. McDermott dropped from third to seven after a very poor offensive and defensive performance against Baylor, but was still by far the top offensive player (8.30 to 7.01 for Billy Baron). The database of all Division 1 players will be updated shortly at

Rnk Alive? Player Team Ht Yr Offense Value Add
1   Delon Wright Utah 6' 5" Jr 4.99 8.39
2 Alive Shabazz Napier Connecticut 6' 1" Sr 5.21 8.05
3   Sean Kilpatrick Cincinnati 6' 4" Sr 5.75 7.37
4   Jordan Adams UCLA 6' 5" So 4.99 7.22
5   TJ Warren North Carolina St. 6' 8" So 5.59 7.16
6   Billy Baron Canisius 6' 2" Sr 7.01 7.16
7   Doug McDermott Creighton 6' 8" Sr 8.30 7.07
8   Trevor Releford Alabama 6' 0 Sr 5.06 6.97
9   Xavier Thames San Diego St. 6' 3" Sr 5.37 6.90
10   Marcus Smart Oklahoma St. 6' 4" So 3.38 6.85
11   KJ McDaniels Clemson 6' 6" Jr 3.47 6.62
12 Alive Frank Kaminsky Wisconsin 7' 0 Jr 5.54 6.50
13   Jarnell Stokes Tennessee 6' 8" Jr 4.85 6.47
14   Russ Smith Louisville 6' 0 Sr 3.99 6.42
15   Fred Van Vleet Wichita St. 5' 11" So 5.02 6.08
16   Briante Weber VCU 6' 2" Jr 1.78 6.06
17   Nick Johnson Arizona 6' 3" Jr 4.05 5.92
18   Lamar Patterson Pittsburgh 6' 5" Sr 4.32 5.84
19   Montrezl Harrell Louisville 6' 8" So 3.51 5.83
20   Langston Galloway Saint Joseph's 6' 2" Sr 5.70 5.73
21   Jabari Parker Duke 6' 8" Fr 4.27 5.71
22   RJ Hunter Georgia St. 6' 5" So 4.36 5.64
23   Ryan Watkins Boise St. 6' 9" Sr 5.56 5.61
24   Joseph Young Oregon 6' 2" Jr 6.22 5.61
25   Tyler Ennis Syracuse 6' 2" Fr 3.71 5.55
26   Kyle Anderson (UCLA) UCLA 6' 9" So 3.20 5.49
27   Jordan McRae Tennessee 6' 6" Sr 4.87 5.46
28 Alive Michael Frazier Florida 6' 4" So 4.26 5.45
29   Cameron Bairstow New Mexico 6' 9" Sr 5.04 5.43
30   Javon McCrea Buffalo 6' 7" Sr 3.94 5.33
31   Kendrick Perry Youngstown St. 6' 0 Sr 5.50 5.33
32   Kendall Williams New Mexico 6' 4" Sr 4.80 5.29
33   Perry Ellis Kansas 6' 8" So 4.42 5.25
34   Juwan Staten West Virginia 6' 1" Jr 5.05 5.25
35   Marcus Paige North Carolina 6' 1" So 4.82 5.24
36   Jalan West Northwestern St. 5' 10" So 4.43 5.21
37   Keifer Sykes Green Bay 5' 11" Jr 4.84 5.20
38 Alive Julius Randle Kentucky 6' 9" Fr 3.60 5.15
39   Khem Birch UNLV 6' 9" Jr 3.02 5.12
40   Gary Harris Michigan St. 6' 4" So 3.91 5.10
41   Rayvonte Rice Illinois 6' 4" Jr 2.73 5.07
42   Alan Williams UC Santa Barbara 6' 7" Jr 2.79 5.06
43   Nik Stauskas Michigan 6' 6" So 6.59 5.00
44   Justin Jackson Cincinnati 6' 8" Sr 1.28 4.99
45 Alive Willie Cauley-Stein Kentucky 7' 0 So 2.22 4.95
46   D'Vauntes Smith-Rivera Georgetown 6' 3" So 5.38 4.93
47   Larry Nance Wyoming 6' 8" Jr 2.41 4.92
48   Shawn Jones Middle Tennessee 6' 8" Sr 3.06 4.91
49   Bryce Cotton Providence 6' 1" Sr 6.63 4.90
50   Deonte Burton (Nevada) Nevada 6' 1" Sr 4.92 4.89
51   Tymell Murphy FIU 6' 5" Sr 3.09 4.88
52   Jacob Parker Stephen F. Austin 6' 6" Jr 4.02 4.85
53   TJ Bray Princeton 6' 5" Sr 5.55 4.85
54   Okaro White Florida St. 6' 8" Sr 3.76 4.79
55   Malcolm Brogdon Virginia 6' 5" So 3.52 4.74
56   Ron Baker Wichita St. 6' 3" So 3.71 4.72
57   Josh Scott Colorado 6' 10" So 4.21 4.72
58   Aaron Craft Ohio St. 6' 2" Sr 1.37 4.70
59   Markel Brown Oklahoma St. 6' 3" Sr 4.61 4.68
60   Egidijus Mockevicius Evansville 6' 10" So 2.80 4.66
61   Seth Tuttle Northern Iowa 6' 8" Jr 4.30 4.61
62   Joel Embiid Kansas 7' 0 Fr 2.04 4.57
63 Alive Casey Prather Florida 6' 6" Sr 3.44 4.45
64   Andrew Wiggins Kansas 6' 8" Fr 3.80 4.39
65   Devin Oliver Dayton 6' 7" Sr 4.15 4.39
66   Branden Dawson Michigan St. 6' 6" Jr 3.03 4.39
67   Trevor Cooney Syracuse 6' 4" So 3.64 4.39
68   CJ Wilcox Washington 6' 5" Sr 4.78 4.37
69   Tyreek Duren La Salle 6' 0 Sr 3.31 4.37
70   Talib Zanna Pittsburgh 6' 9" Jr 3.82 4.36
71 Alive Markus Kennedy SMU 6' 9" So 1.80 4.36
72 Alive Ben Brust Wisconsin 6' 1" Sr 4.57 4.33
73   Cory Jefferson Baylor 6' 9" Sr 3.41 4.33
74   Bobby Portis Arkansas 6' 10" Fr 2.84 4.32
75   Brandon Edwards UT Arlington 6' 6" Sr 4.69 4.31
76   Taylor Braun North Dakota St. 6' 7" Sr 4.75 4.28
77   TJ McConnell Arizona 6' 1" Jr 2.37 4.28
78 Alive Patric Young Florida 6' 9" Sr 2.63 4.27
79   Karvel Anderson Robert Morris 6' 2" Sr 5.33 4.26
80   TaShawn Thomas Houston 6' 8" Jr 3.18 4.25
81 Alive Tyler Johnson Fresno St. 6' 4" Sr 4.05 4.23
82   Aaron Gordon Arizona 6' 9" Fr 1.97 4.23
83   DeAndre Kane Iowa St. 6' 4" Sr 3.63 4.22
84   Daniel Miller Georgia Tech 6' 11" Sr 2.40 4.21
85   Mike Moser Oregon 6' 8" Sr 2.51 4.20
86   Brady Heslip Baylor 6' 2" Sr 4.98 4.16
87   Jordan Bachynski Arizona St. 8' 2" Sr 2.19 4.15
88 Alive Aaron Harrison Kentucky 6' 6" Fr 4.00 4.12
89   John Brown High Point 6' 8" So 3.98 4.11
90   Cleanthony Early Wichita St. 6' 8" Sr 3.59 4.10
91   Sam Dower Gonzaga 6' 9" Sr 3.47 4.08
92   Brice Johnson North Carolina 6' 9" So 2.20 4.07
93   JJ Mann Belmont 6' 6" Sr 3.77 4.07
94   Jason Calliste Oregon 6' 2" Sr 4.67 4.07
95 Alive Sam Dekker Wisconsin 6' 7" So 3.48 4.06
96   Dezmine Wells Maryland 6' 5" Jr 2.88 4.04
97   Coty Clarke Arkansas 6' 7" Sr 2.07 4.02
98   Stephen Holt Saint Mary's 6' 4" Sr 5.28 4.02
99   Manny Atkins Georgia St. 6' 6" Sr 3.63 4.02
100   Aaron Thomas Florida St. 6' 5" So 2.63 4.01


Published:4/3/2014 2:23:13 PM
[Middle East] Why Turkey Was Planning A False Flag Operation In Syria

Submitted by Nick Giambruno via Doug Casey's International Man blog,

You’ve probably heard about the recent leaked conversations involving Turkey.

It was stunning to hear the highest-ranking Turks casually discussing how to provoke a false flag incident that would justify a large military intervention in Syria.

This is a big deal because Turkish troops in Syria opens the door to NATO troops in Syria, which drastically expands the conflict.

As someone who has spent a number of years living and working in the Middle East, and having been to Syria multiple times, I was encouraged by my colleagues at Casey Research to share my perspective on this.

In case you didn’t know, a false flag is an incident that is designed to deceive people into thinking it was actually carried out by someone else.

It’s like the scene in the movie Fast Times at Ridgemont High. There’s a character who plays on the high school football team and has a fancy sports car. Later, his little brother’s friend accidentally trashes this car. Terrified at how the big brother could respond, they come up with a clever plan to shift the blame on someone else. They make it look like a rival football team vandalized the car, decorating it in the rival team’s colors and slogans. The plan works—the big brother is tricked into thinking that a rival football team trashed his car instead of the little brother.

This is the essence of a false flag, and the same tactic is used by the world’s militaries and intelligence services to nefarious effect. Many believe the Reichstag fire incident that allowed Hitler to drastically expand his power was a false flag operation.

So, why would the Turks propose doing such a thing in Syria?

To answer that question, we need to sift through the complexities of the Syrian situation.

First, the Syrian rebels are divided into mostly Salafi Islamists and secularists, or what was once known as the Free Syrian Army. As things stand right now, the latter is essentially irrelevant and has little influence on the ground—a reality that the Obama administration stubbornly refuses to acknowledge. The Salafi Islamists are the real power of the opposition and can be divided into roughly three groups.

1. The Islamic Front: This is the so-called “moderate” or “mainstream” group and is supported mostly by Saudi Arabia, but also by Turkey and Qatar. It’s the largest group in terms of men, but not necessarily the most militarily effective.

2. The Nusra Front: This is the official Al Qaeda franchise in Syria. It’s more radical, known for beheadings and suicide attacks, and is supported by wealthy individuals in the Gulf and allegedly to some degree from Qatar. Al Nusra also widely coordinates its activities with the Islamic Front. This leads many to question whether there’s any meaningful distinction between the two groups, other than giving the latter a “mainstream” veneer to potential Western backers.

3. ISIL: This stands for the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant. These guys are so hardcore that even Al Qaeda disavowed them, as their brutal tactics have alienated many locals. But that doesn’t mean they aren’t powerful on the ground, though. In fact, they control a huge swath of territory that stretches from eastern Syria into the Iraqi city of Fallujah, which for all intents and purposes is a distinct yet unrecognized political entity controlled by these guys.

Now back to the Turkish situation.

Turkey owns a very small piece of territory inside of Syria that dates back to the Ottoman Empire. This small piece of land is the tomb of Suleyman Shah, a relative of one of the founding Ottomans. It’s guarded by 24 Turkish troops and is considered sovereign Turkish territory.

Having Turkish troops in this area is not controversial, as the Syrian government has long agreed to it.

The region where this tomb is located has totally fallen out of the Syrian government’s control for many months. And now, the hardcore ISIL group controls the surrounding area. It has threatened the Turkish soldiers and told them to leave. The Turks refused, and that’s why the Turkish government is getting skittish.

This is where the leaked tape comes in.

The conversation started out with the Turks talking about how they can protect this tomb from ISIL. This is not controversial. I don’t believe the Syrian government would care about the Turks intervening to protect the tomb, since this is an area where it has lost control anyways. Plus, I’d bet the Syrian government would be happy to see the Turks bogged down fighting ISIL militants who’d otherwise be fighting them.

However, that was not the end of the conversation. The really sinister part comes when the high-ranking Turks talk about how easy it would be to create a false flag incident involving the tomb, and how they could use that to justify a much wider military intervention inside Syria.

Such an incident would be a sort of foot in the door to further military activities inside Syria and would allow the Turks to help their favored rebel groups, which have seen serious setbacks lately.

That step would clearly cause them to go to war with the Syrian government and drastically expand the conflict. And once Turkey is involved inside Syria, that opens the door for NATO to be involved.

The Erdogan government has staked a huge amount of domestic political capital by supporting the Syrian rebels. They gambled that their favored rebel groups would quickly win and as a result, Turkey would have more geopolitical influence in a post-Assad Syria. It was a losing bet. Turkey’s favored rebels have seriously faltered, and a growing number of Turkish voters have become skeptical of their government’s intervention and the blowback it’s causing.

A false flag incident with the tomb would be a way for Erdogan to double down in a desperate attempt to turn things around in Syria. Whoever leaked this conversation clearly timed it to take the wind out the sails of such a strategy.

There are only a few people with the capability and motivation to do this. As an ally of the Syrian government, Russian intelligence is at the top of that list. They have leaked similarly shocking private conversations in Ukraine recently. Members of the Turkish military opposed to Erdogan could have also done it.

Instead of coming up with a classy way of saying “touché,” the Turkish government responded by throwing a childish fit, futilely trying to block YouTube and Twitter.

In this digital age, restricting Internet access, seizing and spying on digital data, and otherwise tampering with an individual’s digital presence have become new tools in the traditional toolbox of desperate governments.

Fortunately, mitigating this risk is relatively easy by diversifying your digital presence internationally. In our Going Global publication, we have a comprehensive and actionable section on how to do just that. Whether it’s setting up an offshore email service or cloud file storage, to moving the components of your personal and business websites abroad, using secure encryption, or using a VPN to disguise which country you are accessing the Internet from to get past government blocks, Going Global covers it all.

While the actions of the Turkish government are pathetic and largely obsolete, that doesn’t mean other governments with much greater capabilities won’t try similar things. If we’ve learned anything over the past year, it’s that the NSA and the US government are very much in the business of trying to undermine your digital rights.

Internationalizing your digital presence is the solution. You will secure your privacy and ensure that no government can pull the plug on your digital life.


Published:4/2/2014 6:27:55 PM
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