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[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Near Highs As Boeing Stock Jumps; DocuSign Surges On Takeover Chatter The Dow Jones, S&P 500 and Nasdaq composite were on pace for their seventh straight weekly gain on quadruple-witching Friday. Published:12/15/2023 2:23:49 PM
[Markets] Dow Flat While Nasdaq Keeps Climbing; Costco Hits All-Time High The stock market showed mixed results early Friday as the Dow Jones Industrial Average eased off record highs. Published:12/15/2023 10:36:27 AM
[Markets] Why Are Tech Stocks Up—and the Dow Down—Today? Technology stocks are in the green Friday, bucking the broader trend. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is up 0.3%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average has dropped 40 points, or 0.1% and the S&P 500 is flat 0.1%. Tech stocks had underperformed Thursday, but analysts expect many of the mega-sized tech companies to grow earnings faster than the S&P 500 over the next couple of years. Published:12/15/2023 10:00:13 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Amid Key Economic Data; Costco Rallies On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped Friday amid key economic data, as the stock market hit more new highs. Costco stock rallied on earnings. Published:12/15/2023 8:07:48 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Keep Rising Ahead Of Economic Data; Costco Rallies On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Friday ahead of key economic data, as the stock market hit more new highs. Costco stock rallied on earnings. Published:12/15/2023 7:23:28 AM
[Markets] Futures gain as rate-cut cheer persists The Fed left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, acknowledging slowing inflation and indicated lower borrowing costs were on the horizon, causing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to notch its second straight record high close on Thursday. Money markets see a 79% chance of at least a 25-basis point rate cut as soon as March 2024, up from about 50% before Wednesday's policy announcement, while almost fully pricing in another cut in May 2024, according to CME Group's FedWatch tool. Published:12/15/2023 5:13:42 AM
[Markets] Stock market today: Asian markets churn upward after the Dow ticks to another record high Asian shares powered higher on Friday after the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed to another record on excitement that the Federal Reserve might cut interest rates several times next year. Troubled developer Country Garden's shares jumped 5.1%, while China Evergrande gained 2.2% and Sino Ocean Holding surged 6.8%. China's National Bureau of Statistics reported that factory output rose 6.6% in November and retail sales were up more than 10%, glimmers of improvement for the economy after the post-COVID recovery faded much more quickly than expected. Published:12/15/2023 1:51:05 AM
[Markets] Stocks Close Higher. The Dow Hits Second Consecutive Record High The stock market ended the day in the green, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average closing at its second consecutive all-time high. The Dow gained 158 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.3% and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0. Published:12/14/2023 3:18:23 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Pares Gains Amid 'Goldilocks' Set Up; Moderna Soars On Cancer Vaccine Dow Jones rose to new highs after retail sales beat views while initial unemployment claims came in lower than expected. Moderna soared. Published:12/14/2023 2:41:48 PM
[Markets] S&P 500 clings to gain, Nasdaq turns negative and Dow hits pause on record-setting rally U.S. stocks are pulling back from session highs after Dow Jones carves out a fresh record. Published:12/14/2023 12:57:00 PM
[Markets] Tech Stocks Dip, Giving Up Earlier Gains Technology stocks are giving up earlier gains and falling into the red Thursday. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite is down 0.2% after having spent much of the day in the green. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 81 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 has advanced 0.1%. Published:12/14/2023 12:47:47 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies After Surprise Jobless Claims, Retail Sales; Adobe Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones rallied Thursday after a surprise drop in initial unemployment claims and U.S. retail sales. Adobe stock dived on earnings. Published:12/14/2023 9:25:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Keep Surging Ahead Of Jobless Claims, Retail Sales; Adobe Tumbles On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of the initial unemployment claims and U.S. retail sales. Adobe stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/14/2023 7:17:27 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise As Market Rally Runs On Fed Rate-Cut Shift; What To Do Now Futures rose Thursday as Treasury yields tumbled, after the Dow Jones hit a record high on Fed rate-cut forecasts. Here's what to do now. Adobe fell late on guidance. Published:12/14/2023 6:11:48 AM
[Markets] Stock market today: Asian shares are mostly higher after the Dow hits a record high, US dollar falls Shares were mostly higher in Asia on Thursday after a powerful rally across Wall Street sent the Dow Jones Industrial Average to a record high as the Federal Reserve indicated that interest rate cuts are likely next year. The European Central Bank and Bank of England were expected to keep their interest rate policies unchanged, as were the central banks of Norway and Switzerland. In Asian trading, Tokyo’s Nikkei 225 fell as the yen gained sharply against the U.S. dollar, since a weaker dollar can hit the profits of Japanese exporters when they are brought back to Japan. Published:12/14/2023 2:39:21 AM
[Markets] RPT-US STOCKS-Dow ends at record high as Fed signals lower borrowing costs in 2024 The Dow Jones industrial average hit its first record closing high since January 2022 and the S&P 500 and Nasdaq rallied more than 1% each on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled that its interest rate-hiking policy is at an end and that it sees lower borrowing costs in 2024. In its policy statement, the Fed also left interest rates steady, as expected, and a near-unanimous 17 of 19 Fed officials projected that the policy rate will be lower by the end of 2024. Published:12/13/2023 4:24:36 PM
[Markets] : Dow scores its highest close in history. Here’s what that means. The Dow Jones Industrial Average swept to a record close on Wednesday, after the Federal Reserve signaled a pivot to rate cuts could be in store for 2024. Published:12/13/2023 4:05:34 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones hits an all-time high as investors cheer progress on inflation The Dow Jones Industrial Average hits an all-time high as investors cheer progress on inflation. Published:12/13/2023 3:09:23 PM
[Markets] Dow Soars XXX Points to Record Closing High The Dow Jones Industrial Average sprinted to a new record closing high after the Federal Reserve announced its latest monetary policy decision. The Dow gained 513 points, or 1.4% to close at 37090. The S&P 500 rose 1. Published:12/13/2023 3:09:23 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones eclipses 37,000 intraday for first time ever, heads for record close Dow Jones eclipses 37,000 intraday for first time ever, heads for record close Published:12/13/2023 2:52:49 PM
[Markets] UPDATE 1-Dow industrials hit intraday record high on rate optimism The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit its first record high since January 2022 on Wednesday after the Federal Reserve signaled lower borrowing costs are coming in 2024. The Dow was up 1.12% at 36,986.89 points. Ending Wednesday's session at its current level would also mark the Dow's first-record high close since January 2022, and would confirm that it has been in a bull market since tumbling more than 20% through its closing low in September 2022, according to a common definition. Published:12/13/2023 2:39:57 PM
[Markets] Dow Reaches 37000, an Intraday Record High The Dow Jones Industrial Average hit an intraday record high. The index is up 472 points, or 1.3% to 37049 at last check, reaching over 37000 for the first time. It’s up just a little less than the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite, which have gained about 1. Published:12/13/2023 2:17:54 PM
[Markets] Stocks Rise After Fed Holds Rates Steady The stock market is maintaining its gain after the Federal Reserve announced that it is holding rates steady. The Dow Jones Industrial Average has gained 97 points, or 0.3%, while the S&P 500 is up 0.3% and the Nasdaq has risen 03%. The Fed announced that it will keep the federal funds rate unchanged at a range between 5.25% and 5.50%. Published:12/13/2023 1:11:12 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flat Ahead Of Fed; Magnificent Seven Mixed As Tesla Falls On Autopilot Flaw Dow Jones was flat ahead of the Fed rate decision on Wednesday. Tesla fell while other Magnificent Seven stocks rose. Published:12/13/2023 11:24:18 AM
[Markets] This Market Is Skating on Very Thin Ice As discussed below, psychology data that have been historically prescient regarding indications of excessive bullish sentiment near market peaks have typically been followed by corrections of varying degrees. On the charts, the major equity indexes closed mixed Tuesday with the S&P 500, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100 and Dow Jones Transports rising as the rest posted losses. Also, the gains on the S&P, DJIA, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 pushed their prices above their near-term resistance levels, leaving all in near-term bullish trends and lacking sell signals except for the Dow Transports staying neutral. Published:12/13/2023 9:53:08 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls After Cool Inflation Data; Fed Decision, Powell Up Next The Dow Jones fell after more key inflation data Wednesday. The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's comments are later in the day. Published:12/13/2023 8:44:16 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Hold Gains After PPI Inflation Data The stock market is gaining after the increase in producer prices came in below expectations. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures were up 39 points, or 0.1%, while S&P 500 futures were rising 0.1% and futures tracking the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.2%. The producer price index for November rose at a 0.9% annual rate, versus estimates of 1% and lower than October’s 1.2% gain. Published:12/13/2023 7:51:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After Cool Inflation Data; Fed Decision, Powell Up Next Dow Jones futures rose after more key inflation data. The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's comments are later in the day. Published:12/13/2023 7:43:56 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Key Inflation Data; Fed Decision, Powell Up Next Dow Jones futures rose ahead of more key inflation data. The Fed's interest rate decision and Powell's comments are later in the day. Published:12/13/2023 7:37:14 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise; Nasdaq Hits 2023 Highs, Nvidia Reclaims Buy Point With Fed On Tap Dow Jones futures were little changed after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Federal Reserve meeting decision looms large. The stock market rallied Tuesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a 2023 high, joining the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Published:12/12/2023 5:15:33 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise: Nasdaq Hits 2023 Highs, Nvidia Reclaims Buy Point With Fed On Tap Dow Jones futures rose slightly after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Federal Reserve meeting decision looms large. The stock market rallied Tuesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a 2023 high, joining the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Published:12/12/2023 4:00:50 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Nasdaq Hits 2023 Highs, Nvidia Reclaims Buy Point With Fed On Tap Dow Jones futures tilted higher after hours, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The Federal Reserve meeting decision looms large. The stock market rallied Tuesday, with the Nasdaq hitting a 2023 high, joining the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones. Published:12/12/2023 3:54:48 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls On CPI Inflation Report; Tech Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings The Dow Jones dropped Tuesday on the Consumer Price Index inflation report. Tech giant Oracle dived on weak sales results. Published:12/12/2023 9:01:31 AM
[Markets] Dow Opens Flat After November Inflation Report Inflation came in lower than last month’s reading. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 10 points, or less than 0.1%, while the S&P 500 has dropped 0.2% and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.1%. The consumer price index gained 3.1% year over year in November, in line with forecasts and down from 3.2% in October. Published:12/12/2023 8:42:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After CPI Inflation Report; Tech Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Tuesday on the Consumer Price Index inflation report. Tech giant Oracle dived on weak sales results. Published:12/12/2023 7:43:39 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of CPI Inflation Report; Tech Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Tuesday ahead of the imminent CPI inflation report. AI giant Oracle dived on weak sales results. Published:12/12/2023 7:17:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Magnificent Seven Stocks Slide; AI Giant Oracle Dives On Earnings; CPI Next Dow Jones futures: The Magnificent Seven stocks tumbled Monday, with heavy losses in Nvidia and Tesla. The CPI inflation report is next. Published:12/11/2023 4:41:38 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises 157 Points As Apple, Tesla Fall; This Warren Buffett Stock On 62% Run Clears Entry The Dow Jones rose even as Apple stock and Tesla stock fell. A Warren Buffett stock cleared an entry point. Macy's stock rocketed on takeover news. Published:12/11/2023 3:39:40 PM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Monday, 12/11/2023 The Nasdaq composite rose 0.2% and the Dow Jones Industrial Average added 0.4%. Major stock indexes are on a six-week winning streak, with the S&P 500 up 20% for the year. The Nasdaq composite rose 28.51 points, or 0.2%, to 14,432.49. Published:12/11/2023 3:26:37 PM
[Markets] Stocks Rise, Notch New Highs for 2023 The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 157 points, or 0.4%, while the S&P 500 gained 0.4%, and the Nasdaq Composite advanced 0.2%. The indexes have notched impressive gains for the year, with the S&P 500 up more than 20%. Big Tech took the lead early in the year, as tech company earnings growth prospects have gotten even brighter on the back of opportunities related to artificial intelligence. Published:12/11/2023 3:20:07 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Gains As Macy's Rockets; This Warren Buffett Stock On 62% Run Offers Entry The Dow Jones rose as Macy's stock rocketed on takeover news. A Warren Buffett stock has cleared an entry. Apple stock and Tesla stock fell. Published:12/11/2023 2:22:13 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Tech Titan Apple, AI Giants Nvidia, Snowflake Near Buy Points In Today's Stock Market Dow Jones tech titan Apple, along with AI giants Nvidia and Snowflake, are in or near buy zones in today's stock market action. Published:12/11/2023 1:31:06 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On Mixed Fed Pivot Views; Warren Buffett's Oil Stock Enters Big Deal As Macy's Surges On Bid To Go Private Dow Jones rose amid mixed views on when the Fed may start rate cuts. Macy's surged on a buyout offer, Occidental entered a huge private deal. Published:12/11/2023 10:24:43 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones fell Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 9:09:44 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Mixed to Begin a Busy Week The major stock indexes are mixed Monday as the market takes a breather from recent gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is up 67 points, or 0.2%, while the S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite are down 0.1% and 0.5%, respectively. This comes after a Friday rally, a continuation of what has a been a 20% gain for the S&P 500 this year. Published:12/11/2023 8:45:25 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones rose Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 8:39:23 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Flatten Out; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures dropped Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 8:24:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall; Apple Headlines 9 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures dropped Monday ahead of this week's CPI and Fed meeting. Apple stock headlines 9 best stocks to buy and watch. Published:12/11/2023 7:52:03 AM
[Markets] 12 Dow Stocks Billionaires Like The Most In this piece, we will take a look at the 12 Dow stocks that billionaires like the most. If you don’t want to learn more about the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA), its history, and recent performance, then skip ahead to 5 Dow Stocks Billionaires Like The Most. In its current form today, the Dow […] Published:12/10/2023 12:22:02 PM
[Markets] Should You Buy the 3 Highest-Paying Dividend Stocks in the Dow Jones? Should you buy the three highest-paying dividend stocks in the Dow Jones right now? Walgreens Boots Alliance (NASDAQ: WBA) easily ranks at the top of our list. The retail and wholesale pharmacy giant's dividend yield currently stands at nearly 8.4%. Published:12/10/2023 4:57:54 AM
[Markets] Be Careful What You Wish For: This Event May Signal the Start of the 2024 Bear Market The past four years have been nothing short of a wild ride for Wall Street. Since this decade began, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-fueled Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), have bounced back and forth between bear and bull markets in successive years. Currently, the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite are enjoying a major rally off of their 2022 bear market lows. Published:12/10/2023 4:14:08 AM
[Markets] Stocks Search for Direction After Latest Data Stocks were vacillating between gains and losses on Friday as traders digested the latest set of economic data. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 0.1%. The S&P 500 was flat, while the Nasdaq Composite was up 0. Published:12/8/2023 11:39:28 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Firm Above 36,000 After Jobs Report; LULU Stock Reverses Higher After Earnings The Dow Jones rose modestly Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the latest jobs report. Small caps outperformed as bond yields rose. Published:12/8/2023 11:02:02 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises 140 Points After Jobs Report; LULU Stock Reverses Higher After Earnings The Dow Jones rose modestly Friday morning as Wall Street weighed the latest jobs report. Small caps outperformed as bond yields rose. Published:12/8/2023 9:59:35 AM
[Markets] Stocks Turn Higher After Consumer Sentiment Data Stocks turned higher Friday as an upbeat reading on inflation expectations overshadowed a stronger-than-expected jobs report. After opening in negative territory, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered to gain 128 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 rose 0.4%, while the Nasdaq Composite gained 0.5%. Published:12/8/2023 9:41:02 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Reverses Higher On Strong Jobs Report; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings The Dow Jones Industrial Average reversed Friday on a stronger-than-expected November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/8/2023 8:57:41 AM
[Markets] Stocks Fall, Yields Rise. The Labor Market Is Still Strong. Stocks were slipping at Friday’s open after data showed that U.S. employers added more jobs than expected last month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 26 points, or 0.1%. The S&P 500 fell 0.2%, while the Nasdaq Composite was down 0. Published:12/8/2023 8:44:30 AM
[Markets] Stock Futures Recover. Keep an Eye on the Open. Stocks pared some of their losses right before opening bell on Friday after traders digested details in the November jobs report. Futures for the Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 0.1% versus the 0.4% loss seen around 8:30 am Eastern time. Published:12/8/2023 8:24:24 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall On Strong Jobs Report; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings Dow Jones futures fell Friday morning on a stronger-than-expected November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/8/2023 7:48:39 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Imminent Jobs Report ; LULU Stock Tumbles On Earnings Dow Jones futures fell Friday morning ahead of the imminent November jobs report. LULU stock tumbled on earnings. Published:12/8/2023 7:08:18 AM
[Markets] Stocks Got an AI Boost. S&P 500, Dow Ended Losing Streaks. Stocks notched gains on Thursday as investors flocked to AI-related stocks in droves. The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 63 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 advanced 0.8%. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite gained 1. Published:12/7/2023 3:08:56 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As AMD Soars Amid AI Fever; These 3 Bill Ackman Stocks Are Near Entries The Dow Jones rallied. AMD stock popped amid an AI chip reveal. Some Bill Ackman stocks, including Google parent Alphabet, are near entries. Published:12/7/2023 2:56:06 PM
[Markets] Dow, S&P 500 Set to Snap Losing Streaks Stocks made a strong recovery mid-Thursday as bonds yields lost ground. The Dow Jones Industrial Average had gained 88 points, or 0.25%. The S&P 500 had made its largest one-day gain since mid-November, moving up 0. Published:12/7/2023 1:36:08 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Climbs After Jobless Claims Rise; Google Stock Surges After Gemini AI Model The Dow Jones climbed Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. Google stock surged after unveiling its Gemini AI model. Published:12/7/2023 8:55:02 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Higher. Dow, S&P 500 Snap Losing Streaks. Stocks moved decisively higher Thursday, with implications of Japan’s exit from negative interest rates and the state of the U.S. labor market on investors' minds. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 70 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was up about 0.5%. Published:12/7/2023 8:49:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Reverse After Jobless Claims Rise; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings Dow Jones futures reversed higher Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings. Published:12/7/2023 8:12:33 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall After Jobless Claims Rise; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings Dow Jones futures dropped Thursday after the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings. Published:12/7/2023 7:35:43 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Jobless Claims; AI Stock C3.ai Plunges On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of the Labor Department's jobless claims. AI stock C3.ai plunged on earnings. Published:12/7/2023 7:23:30 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flat As Elon Musk Offers $1 Billion In AI Race Dow Jones rises on weak ADP jobs data for November. Disney rose amid news that activist investor Ancora supports Nelson Peltz's bid for a board seat. Published:12/6/2023 2:22:55 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flounders As Musk Ups AI Race With $1 Billion Offering Dow Jones rises on weak ADP jobs data for November. Disney rose amid news that activist investor Ancora supported Nelson Peltz's bid for a board seat. Published:12/6/2023 1:09:16 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flat On Soft Jobs Data; Elon Musk Files $1 Billion Offering In AI Race Dow Jones rises on weak ADP jobs data for November. Disney rose amid news that activist investor Ancora supported Nelson Peltz's bid for a board seat. Published:12/6/2023 11:54:26 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On Soft Jobs Data; Disney Climbs Amid Board Seat Wars Dow Jones rises on weak ADP jobs data for November. Disney rose amid news that activist investor Ancora supported Nelson Peltz's bid for a board seat. Published:12/6/2023 10:24:24 AM
[Markets] The Dow Jones Is Aiming at All-Time Highs, and These 2 Stocks Are Leading the Charge After a long bear market, the Dow Jones Industrial Average is within striking distance of record levels. Published:12/6/2023 9:29:31 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises On Weak Jobs Data; Apple Stock Breaks Out Past Buy Point The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Wednesday on a weak ADP jobs report. Apple stock currently is breaking out past its latest buy point. Published:12/6/2023 8:36:50 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After Weak Jobs Data; Apple Stock Breaks Out Past Buy Point Dow Jones futures rose Wednesday after a weak ADP jobs report. Apple stock is breaking out past its latest buy point. Published:12/6/2023 7:39:32 AM
[Markets] This Dow Dividend Giant Missed the 2023 Rally. Is It a Buy Now? The Dow Jones Industrial Average recently touched a 2023 record, rising to an 8% overall return through late November. Investors have been thrilled to see signs of slowing inflation and strong economic growth, and are responding to the good news by pushing the index higher. Not all Dow stocks are benefiting from this surging optimism. Published:12/6/2023 5:09:20 AM
[Markets] The Dow Jones Just Did Something It Hasn't Done Since 2021. It Could Signal a Big Move in the Stock Market The Dow Jones Industrial Average notched five consecutive weekly increases during November, something the blue chip index last did in 2021. Published:12/5/2023 6:39:34 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Eases As Microsoft Stock Tests A New Entry; Sphere Stock Tanks 14% Large and mega-cap stocks outperformed on the stock market today as the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped, but fell less than the Russell 2000. One large stock, Microsoft, got support at a key technical level while testing a 366.78 buy point, as concert venue upstart Sphere Entertainment sold off and hit five-month lows. The S&P 500 traded practically at the break-even point. Published:12/5/2023 2:35:43 PM
[Markets] Wall Street Analysts Are Optimistic For 2024 Wall Street Analysts Are Optimistic For 2024

Authored by Lance Roberts via RealInvestmentAdvice.com,

It’s that time of the year where Wall Street polishes up their crystal balls and pin targets on the S&P index for the upcoming year. As is often the case, while Wall Street is always optimistic, the forecasts prove pretty wrong.

For example, on December 7th, 2021, we wrote an article about the predictions for 2022.

“There is one thing about Goldman Sachs that is always consistent; they are ‘bullish.’ Of course, given that the market is positive more often than negative, it ‘pays’ to be bullish when your company sells products to hungry investors.

It is important to remember that Goldman Sachs was wrong when it was most important, particularly in 2000 and 2008.

However, in keeping with its traditional bullishness, Goldman’s chief equity strategist David Kostin forecasted the S&P 500 will climb by 9% to 5100 at year-end 2022. As he notes, such will “reflect a prospective total return of 10% including dividends.”

The problem, of course, is that the S&P 500 did NOT end the year at 5100.

Then, in 2022, Wall Street analysts suggested that 2023 would be a year of meager return of just 3.9% with a median price target of 4000.

Of course, reality turned out to be markedly different.

However, the guessing game is an annual tradition of Wall Street analysts and, as is always the case, to borrow a quote:

“(Market) Predictions Are Difficult…Especially When They Are About The Future” – Niels Bohr

Okay, I took a little poetic license, but the point is that while we try, predictions of the future are difficult at best and impossible at worst. If we could accurately predict the future, fortune tellers would win all the lotteries, psychics would be richer than Elon Musk, and portfolio managers would always beat the index.

However, all we can do is analyze what occurred previously, weed through the noise of the present, and discern the possible outcomes of the future. The biggest problem with Wall Street, both today and in the past, is the consistent disregard of the unexpected and random events they inevitability occur.

We have seen plenty, from trade wars to Brexit, to Fed policy and a global pandemic in recent years. Yet, before those events caused a market downturn, Wall Street analysts were wildly bullish that wouldn’t happen.

So what about 2024? We have some early indications of Wall Street targets for the S&P 500 index, and, as is always the case, they are primarily optimistic for the coming year.

“The estimates from sell-side strategists put the average target for the S&P 500 at 4,836 for the end of 2024, implying an advance of merely 6.3% from Monday’s close, according to MarketWatch calculations of the data (see table below). That is below the average yearly return of around 8% for the large-cap index since 1957 and its year-to-date surge of 18.5% in 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data.” – MorningStar

Will next year be another bull market year for stocks, or will the bear finally come out of hibernation? We don’t have a clue but can make educated guesses about ranges given current valuations.

Estimating The Outcomes

The problem with current forward estimates is that several factors must exist to sustain historically high earnings growth.

  1. Economic growth must remain more robust than the average 20-year growth rate.

  2. Wage and labor growth must reverse to sustain historically elevated profit margins, and,

  3. Both interest rates and inflation must reverse to very low levels.

While such is possible, the probabilities are low, as strong economic growth can not exist in a low inflation and interest-rate environment. More notably, if the Fed cuts rates, as most economists and analysts expect next year, such will be in response to a near-recessionary or recessionary environment. Such would not support current strong earnings estimates of $220.24 per share next year. This represents roughly 20% from Q3-2023 levels, which is the most recently completed quarter.

Nonetheless, with that said, we can use the current forward estimates, as shown above, to estimate both a recession and non-recession price target for the S&P 500 as we head into 2024. These assumptions are based on valuation multiples within ranges of current market levels.

In the NO-recession scenario, the assumption is that valuations will fall slightly as earnings increase to 22x earnings over the next year. (22x earnings has been the average over the last few years.) The S&P 500 should theoretically trade at roughly 4845 by 2024 based on current estimates. Given the market is trading at approximately 4550 (at the time of this writing), such would imply a 6.5% increase from current levels.

However, should the economy slip into a mild recession, valuations would be expected to revert toward the longer-term median of 17x earnings. Such would imply a level of 3744 or roughly a 17% decline next year.

While an additional 17% decline from current levels seems hostile, such would align with typical recessionary bear markets.

Which would also coincide with Fed rate cuts to offset the deflationary risk to the economy.

However, we must consider one more scenario.

Maybe The Bulls Are Right

We would be remiss in not providing for a bullish outcome in 2024. However, we must consider several factors for that bullish outcome to take shape.

  1. We assume the $220/share in year-end estimates remains valid.

  2. That the economy avoids a recession even as inflation falls

  3. The Federal Reserve pivots to a lower interest rate campaign.

  4. Valuations remain static at 22x earnings.

In this scenario, the S&P 500 should rise from roughly 4550 to 5395 by the end of 2024. Such would imply an 18.5% gain for the year. Given the market is up approximately 19% in 2023, such a gain

The chart below combines the three potential outcomes to show the range of possible outcomes for 2024. Of course, you can do the analysis, make valuation assumptions, and derive your targets for next year. This is just a logic exercise to develop a range of possibilities and probabilities over the next 12 months.

Conclusion

Here is our concern with the bullish scenario. It entirely depends on a “no recession” outcome, and the Fed must reverse its monetary tightening. The issue with that view is that IF the economy does indeed have a soft landing, there is no reason for the Federal Reserve to reverse reducing its balance sheet or lower interest rates.

More importantly, the rise in asset prices eases financial conditions, which reduces the Fed’s ability to bring down inflation. Such would also presumably mean employment remains strong along with wage growth, elevating inflationary pressures.

While the bullish scenario is possible, that outcome faces many challenges in 2024, given the market already trades at fairly lofty valuations. Even in a “soft landing” environment, earnings should weaken, which makes current valuations at 22x earnings more challenging to sustain.

Our best guess is that reality lies somewhere in the middle. Yes, there is a bullish scenario where earnings decline and a monetary policy reversal leads investors to pay more for lower earnings. But that outcome has a limited lifespan as valuations matter to long-term returns.

As investors, we should hope for lower valuations and prices, which gives us the best potential for long-term returns. Unfortunately, we don’t want the pain of getting there.

Regardless of which scenario plays out in real-time, there is a reasonable risk of weaker returns over the next year than what we saw in 2023.

That is just the math.

Tyler Durden Tue, 12/05/2023 - 11:25
Published:12/5/2023 10:40:08 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls 180 Points After Key Economic Data; Nvidia, Tesla Stock Rebound The Dow Jones dropped 180 points Tuesday after key economic data. Tech titans Nvidia and Tesla rebounded from Monday's sharp losses. Published:12/5/2023 9:24:18 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls Ahead Of Key Economic Data; Nvidia, Tesla Bounce The Dow Jones dropped Tuesday ahead of key economic data. Tech titans Nvidia and Tesla threatened to extend Monday's sharp losses. Published:12/5/2023 8:53:19 AM
[Markets] Stocks Open Lower as Market Digests November Rally Stocks opened lower on Tuesday as traders digested the market’s recent rally. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 81 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was down 0.3%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.4%. Published:12/5/2023 8:44:55 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Key Economic Data; Nvidia, Tesla Extend Losses Dow Jones futures dropped Tuesday ahead of key economic data. Tech titans Nvidia and Tesla threatened to extend Monday's sharp losses. Published:12/5/2023 7:29:32 AM
[Markets] Market Extra: After best stretch since 2020, how much higher can stocks climb? Here is what history shows us. U.S. stocks pulled back on Monday following the best five-week stretch for the S&P 500 since 2020, Dow Jones Market Data show. Published:12/5/2023 7:12:33 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Jobs Report Looms As Magnificent Seven Stocks Tumble Dow Jones futures: The Magnificent Seven stocks tumbled Monday, as Alphabet, Nvidia and Tesla stock finished with sharp losses. Published:12/4/2023 3:51:41 PM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Monday, 12/4/2023 Stocks slipped on Wall Street ahead of some key reports this week on the job market that might provide more insight into the Federal Reserve’s thinking about interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 41 points, and the Nasdaq composite fell 0.8%. Alaska Airlines slumped after it said it would buy Hawaiian Airlines. Published:12/4/2023 3:19:24 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips As Uber Stock Jumps; Cathie Wood Sells This Stock On Monster 109% Run The Dow Jones fell as Uber stock surged. Nvidia stock and Tesla stock were among Magnificent 7 members falling. Cathie Wood sold a stock amid a big run. Published:12/4/2023 2:41:20 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Leader Boeing, Chip Giant ARM Near Buy Points In Today's Stock Market Dow Jones aerospace leader Boeing and chip designer ARM are approaching new buy points in today's stock market action. Published:12/4/2023 2:34:09 PM
[Markets] Stocks Fall to Start Week Stocks slipped at the start of Monday, threatening to end their winning streak as markets await a flurry of labor market data later this week. Shortly after the open, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 139 points, or 0. Published:12/4/2023 8:51:01 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As Bitcoin Surges Above $42,000; Nvidia, Tesla Sell Off The Dow Jones fell Monday, as bitcoin surged above $42,000 for the first time since April 2022. Nvidia and Tesla stock sold off. Published:12/4/2023 8:37:03 AM
[Markets] Is It Time to Buy the Dow Jones' 3 Worst-Performing November Stocks? Last month was a much-needed win for the stock market. When all was said and done the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) gained nearly 9% in November, reversing a nasty downtrend and reaching a new multi-month high in the process. Not every Dow stock followed suit, though. Published:12/4/2023 8:30:32 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall As Bitcoin Surges Above $42,000; Uber Jumps On S&P 500 Inclusion Dow Jones futures fell Monday, as bitcoin surged above $42,000 for the first time since April 2022. Uber stock jumped on S&P 500 inclusion. Published:12/4/2023 7:17:11 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall; ARM, Palantir Lead 7 Stocks In Buy Areas Dow Jones futures fell modestly early Monday, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally briefly hinted it might be ready for a pause, as megacaps Meta Platforms, Google parent Alphabet and Nvidia faltered somewhat. Published:12/4/2023 6:04:59 AM
[Markets] U.S. Money Supply Is Shrinking for the First Time Since the Great Depression, and It May Portend a Big Move for Stocks Since this decade began, the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite have bounced back and forth between bull and bear markets in each successive year. While there's no predictive tool or metric that can, with guaranteed accuracy, always predict short-term directional moves in the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq Composite, there are select indicators and datapoints that strongly correlate with directional changes in the broader market. Published:12/3/2023 4:18:16 AM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Friday, 12/1/2023 The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 294 points and the Nasdaq composite added 0.6%. In company news, Ulta Beauty soared 10.8% after reporting better-than-expected results for its latest quarter and raising its forecast. Gainers outnumbered decliners by roughly 6-to-1 on the New York Stock Exchange. Published:12/1/2023 3:54:41 PM
[Markets] Dow, S&P 500 Hit New 2023 Closing Highs The Dow Jones Industrial Average and the S&P 500 hit new closing highs for 2023 on Friday, as stocks rose again to wrap a fifth straight week of gains for the three major U.S. indexes. The Dow finished up about 295 points, or 0. Published:12/1/2023 3:20:17 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-S&P, Nasdaq slip as caution prevails ahead of Powell comments The S&P 500 and Nasdaq fell on Friday as investors were on edge ahead of Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell's comments that some fear may have a hawkish tilt towards monetary policy. This comes after both the indexes finished November with their biggest monthly gain since July 2022, while the Dow Jones rallied to close at its highest level since January 2022. Published:12/1/2023 9:13:58 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls Ahead Of Powell Comments; Tesla Slides On Cybertruck Event The Dow Jones dropped Friday ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments. Tesla stock skidded after the Cybertruck delivery event. Published:12/1/2023 9:08:02 AM
[Markets] Asia Markets Mostly Lower, Europe On The Rise, Gold Steady Above $2K Levels - Global Markets Today While US Was Sleeping On Thursday, Nov. 30, U.S. stock markets closed mixed, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average gaining more than 500 points. In economic data, The U.S. October personal consumption expenditure price index remained stable, following September’s 0.4% increase. Annual core PCE inflation decreased to 3.5% from 3.7%. U.S. jobless claims increased to 218,000 for the week ending Nov. 25, up from 211,000 the prior week and below the 220,000 forecast. Chicago PMI jumped to 55.8 in November from 44 in Octob Published:12/1/2023 8:04:04 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Powell Comments; Tesla Slides On Cybertruck Event Dow Jones futures dropped Friday ahead of Fed Chair Jerome Powell's comments. Tesla stock skidded after the Cybertruck delivery event. Published:12/1/2023 7:22:58 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise, Techs Fall; Tesla Skids On Cybertruck Details Dow futures rose after the Dow Jones hit a 2023 high. Samsara led software earnings winners overnight. Cybertruck deliveries began, but Tesla fell amid details. Published:12/1/2023 6:58:53 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise; Tesla Falls On Cybertruck Details But These Techs Soar Dow futures rose after the Dow Jones hit a 2023 high. Samsara led software earnings winners overnight. Cybertruck deliveries began, but Tesla fell amid details. Published:12/1/2023 6:08:15 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Hits 2023 High As Salesforce Soars; Tesla Falls On Cybertruck Prices, Range The Dow Jones hit a 2023 high as Salesforce and UnitedHealth jumped. Tesla deliveries began, and the company finally revealed prices and range. TSLA stock fell in Thursday's session and beyond. Published:11/30/2023 4:53:13 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Surges 520 Points As Salesforce Soars; Elon Musk Hypes 'Bulletproof' Tesla Cybertruck The Dow Jones roared as Salesforce stock surged on earnings. Tesla stock fell as Elon Musk hyped the bulletproof qualities of the Cybertruck. Published:11/30/2023 3:54:42 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow reaches 2023 closing high as markets turn the page on a robust November The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed at its highest level this year as investors crossed the finish line of a banner month for stocks and viewed cooling inflation data in the context of Federal Reserve monetary policy. "We're putting the cherry on top of a banner month," said Ryan Detrick, chief market strategist at Carson Group in Omaha. Among data released Thursday morning, the Commerce Department's closely watched Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) report showed inflation is cooling as expected, along with consumer spending. Published:11/30/2023 3:05:24 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies, Nasdaq Lags As Salesforce Surges; Elon Musk Hypes Tesla Cybertruck Deliveries The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped as Salesforce stock surged on stellar earnings. Tesla stock fell as Elon Musk hyped the Cybertruck. Published:11/30/2023 2:38:59 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow touches 2023 peak as investors eye end of robust November The Dow Jones Industrial Average touched its 2023 peak, but the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq lagged as investors approached the finish line of a banner month for stocks and viewed cooling inflation data through the lens of Federal Reserve monetary policy. The Dow was the clear outperformer, breaching its 2023 intraday high with a solid boost from Salesforce on the heels of its consensus-beating earnings report. Published:11/30/2023 1:32:27 PM
[Markets] Nvidia Stock Is Running Out Of Steam. This Dow Jones Chip Stock Deserves Attention. Recent action in Nvidia stock points to consolidation. Could this Dow Jones stock yield more immediate returns? Published:11/30/2023 1:24:26 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Dow hits 2023 peak as Salesforce jumps, inflation eases The Dow Jones industrials index hit its highest level in 2023 on Thursday, as Salesforce jumped on an upbeat profit forecast and a new report offered further evidence of easing inflation. Salesforce jumped 6.7% as the cloud-based software firm raised its annual profit forecast and beat third-quarter estimates, benefiting from strong demand for its cloud and business products. While the Dow rose to 35,725.11 points, crossing its intraday high of 35,679.13 points hit in August, all three main indexes were on course for their strongest November since 2020. Published:11/30/2023 11:16:01 AM
[Markets] The Dow Is on Pace for Its Highest Close of the Year The Dow Jones Industrial Average was on track for its highest close of 2023 on Thursday. The Dow was up 318 points, or 0.9%, to 35,748.60. Any close above 35,630.68 would mark its highest close of 2023, according to Dow Jones Market Data. Published:11/30/2023 10:25:52 AM
[Markets] Salesforce Provides a Big Boost to the Dow The Dow Jones Industrial Average was leading the big major stock indexes on Thursday, and Salesforce was a big reason why. With the Dow up roughly 270 points, Salesforce stock had contributed 106.24 points to the index, with a 7% gain. Published:11/30/2023 9:50:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies 250 Points On Inflation Data, Jobless Claims; Tesla Slides Ahead Of Cybertruck Event The Dow Jones rose Thursday after key inflation data and initial jobless claims. The Tesla Cybertruck delivery event kicks off later. Published:11/30/2023 9:08:47 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies 200 Points On Inflation Data, Jobless Claims; Tesla Falls Ahead Of Cybertruck Event The Dow Jones rose Thursday after key inflation data and initial jobless claims. The Tesla Cybertruck delivery event kicks off later. Published:11/30/2023 8:46:36 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Jump On Inflation Data, Jobless Claims; Tesla Cybertruck Event Next Dow Jones futures rose Thursday after key inflation data and initial jobless claims. The Tesla Cybertruck delivery event kicks off later. Published:11/30/2023 8:24:46 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After Inflation Data, Jobless Claims; Tesla Cybertruck Event Next Dow Jones futures rose Thursday after key inflation data and initial jobless claims. The Tesla Cybertruck delivery event kicks off later. Published:11/30/2023 7:45:51 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Inflation Data, Jobless Claims; Tesla Cybertruck Event Next Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of key inflation data and initial jobless claims. The Tesla Cybertruck delivery event kicks off later. Published:11/30/2023 7:22:18 AM
[Markets] How major US stock indexes fared Wednesday, 11/29/2023 The Nasdaq composite fell 0.2% and the Dow eked out a gain of 13 points. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 13.44 points, or less than 0.1%, to 35,430.42. The Nasdaq composite fell 23.27 points, or 0.2%, to 14,258.49. Published:11/29/2023 3:38:25 PM
[Markets] Stocks Turn Lower Heading Into the Close The big three indexes turned lower in the final hour of trading on Wednesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down slightly. The S&P 500 was down 0.2%. The Nasdaq Composite was down 0.2%. All three were on track for gains earlier in the session. Published:11/29/2023 2:54:18 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises After Strong GDP, Fed Beige Book Next; GM Surges On Buyback, Dividend Hike The Dow Jones rose Wednesday after a strong Q3 GDP reading, with the Fed's Beige Book next. GM surged on a buyback and dividend hike. Published:11/29/2023 8:53:07 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise After Strong GDP, Fed Data Next; GM Surges On Buyback, Dividend Hike Dow Jones futures rose Wednesday after a strong Q3 GDP reading, with the Fed's Beige Book next. GM surged on a buyback and dividend hike. Published:11/29/2023 7:45:34 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of GDP, Fed Data; GM Surges On Buyback, Dividend Hike Dow Jones futures rose Wednesday ahead of a Q3 GDP reading and the Fed's Beige Book. GM stock surged on a buyback and dividend hike. Published:11/29/2023 7:20:04 AM
[Markets] The Dow Inched Higher. The November Rally Continues. The stock market's November rally continued on Tuesday as bond yields slid lower. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 83 points, or 0.2%. The S&P 500 was up 0.1%. The Nasdaq Composite was up 0.3%. Published:11/28/2023 3:16:06 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Pares Gains As Fed Officials Clash; Micron Falls As Software Earnings Loom The Dow Jones Industrial Average came off session highs in afternoon trading Tuesday as two Federal Reserve officials gave opposing views on the direction of interest rates. Indexes are little changed as investors await a key inflation report. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.2%, while the S&P 500 gave back early gains and was unchanged in the stock market today. Published:11/28/2023 1:01:29 PM
[Markets] Why Stocks Jumped on the Latest Comments From Fed’s Waller The latest comments from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller sent stocks higher on Tuesday. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 66 points, or 0.2%, in Tuesday afternoon trading. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq Composite were flat. Published:11/28/2023 12:42:56 PM
[Markets] The Recipe For $150 Oil The Recipe For $150 Oil

Authored by James Rickards via DailyReckoning.com,

How do the wars in Ukraine and Gaza impact global economic growth and the U.S. economy in particular?

Both wars are ongoing and cataclysmic impacts may yet be felt. Here’s where events stand at the moment. Let’s start with the war in Ukraine…

From a strategic perspective, the situation in Ukraine resembles a smaller-scale version of the situation in Europe in late 1944. At that point, the Allies had successfully completed the D-Day invasion and liberated Paris.

On the Eastern Front, the Russians had annihilated the combined armies of the German Wehrmacht and were advancing through Poland toward Berlin.

Hard fighting remained. The Allies had to fight the Battle of the Bulge in December 1944, and the Russians encountered stiff German resistance in Poland even though they had superiority in numbers, supplies and weapons.

Still, no one doubted that the tide had turned, and Germany was on its way to defeat.

Russia Is Winning on Two Fronts

Likewise, the Russians are clearly defeating the Ukrainians despite the fact that a lot of hard fighting remains. Ukraine’s so-called spring offensive that began in early June was a complete and utter failure.

Nearly six months after it began, Ukraine only captured a few pinprick villages it was expected to take within the first few days.

Casualties are horrendous and Ukraine is reduced to calling up young teenagers, women and old men. The average age of a Ukrainian soldier is 43.

Russia has also demonstrated that NATO weapons systems are hardly wonder weapons.

Russian mines, drones and artillery have destroyed the most advanced German Leopard and U.K. Challenger tanks. The U.S. has held back on letting Ukraine use its Abrams tanks for fear they’ll end up burning on the battlefield like the Leopards and Challengers.

On the economic front, the Russian victory is even more clear-cut than on the military front.

U.S. economic sanctions have failed across the board. The Russian economy is expected to grow at a 5% annualized rate in the fourth quarter of 2023. The best estimate for the U.S. economy in Q4 is 2%, although one can expect that rate to drop as the quarter progresses.

The Russian ruble has withstood Russia’s ejection from global payments networks; it is trading only about 25% lower than when the war began after holding its level against the U.S. dollar over the first 15 months of the war. Inflation in Russia is low.

The Russian economy is on a complete war footing. There are even labor shortages as Russians take jobs in the weapons factories or enlist in the military.

Morale is high, and Putin’s approval rating is above 80% (compare that with Joe Biden’s approval ratings, which are about 37%). To the extent that Putin is unpopular, it’s mostly because many complain he’s not pursuing the war aggressively enough.

Meanwhile, Russian energy sales are at all-time highs. Russia simply sold to India and China any oil and gas that Europe did not want. Meanwhile, Germany is in deep recession even as Russia booms.

Russia’s Also Winning on the Technological Front

Russian technology has proved superior to Western technology on the battlefield. The Russian Kh-47M2 Kinzhal hypersonic missile has destroyed U.S. Patriot anti-missile batteries (about $1 billion each) and has proved unstoppable against Western air defenses.

Russia has also dramatically expanded drone production since the war began. Russia’s even developed advanced drones equipped with AI, which enables coordinated swarm attacks on enemy tanks and armored vehicles.

Russian jamming devices have disabled the GPS systems on the U.S. HIMARS precision artillery systems, which has dramatically impacted their effectiveness.

Russian tech advances have not been confined to weaponry. They’re moving quickly in the areas of semiconductor manufacturing, aeronautics, telecommunications and robotic manufacturing.

So U.S. sanctions have not only failed to stop Russia, but they have also prompted Russia to become a formidable competitor to the collective West.

I said in early 2022 right after the war began that U.S. sanctions would not only fail against Russia, but they would also boomerang and hurt the U.S.

The forecast has proved exactly right.

An Economic Blunder of Epic Proportions

As if Russian advances on the battlefield and Russian economic success were not enough, the U.S. may be about to commit the greatest economic blunder in history, one that could accelerate the flight from the U.S. dollar and destroy confidence in the U.S. Treasury securities market.

Here’s the backstory:

After several weeks of chaos in October, the House of Representatives finally elected a new speaker of the House, Mike Johnson, a mild-mannered but solidly conservative and relatively new member from Louisiana.

He got off to a good start by separating financial support for Israel from support for Ukraine. Both bills will probably pass, but by separating them, Johnson avoided the trap of having to vote for Ukraine in order to support Israel.

Many members support the latter but oppose the former, and now they can make their voices heard with separate votes. So far, so good.

Now Johnson has committed a blunder so egregious that it could rock the global financial system and cause a financial panic. Unfortunately, Johnson’s lack of experience in international monetary affairs has left him blind to the dangers.

Pure Stupidity

Right now, the U.S. holds about $300 billion of Russian assets that were frozen after the Ukraine war broke out in February 2022. Most of those assets came from the Central Bank of Russia and consist of U.S. Treasury securities.

Technically, those assets have not been converted to U.S. ownership. They have merely been frozen and still belong to Russia even though Russia cannot use them.

Now, Johnson wants to convert those assets to U.S. ownership and use the proceeds to pay for the war in Ukraine. Johnson said, “It would be pure poetry to fund the Ukrainian war effort with Russian assets.”

Pure stupidity is more like it. Such an action would amount to a default on U.S. government debt since the securities were legally owned by Russia. Nations around the world would take note and accelerate their dumping of Treasury securities and their flight from the U.S. dollar.

This would increase interest rates in the U.S. and hurt everyone from homebuyers to everyday consumers. It would make U.S. debt permanently more difficult to sell and less desirable to hold.

It would introduce a new risk premium on U.S. debt over and above the existing inflation premium. At its worst, it could trigger a dollar panic and full-scale flight from the dollar.

Johnson is playing with fire and has no idea what he is doing. Let’s hope he receives some sound advice before he goes too far.

Hamas and Israel

The war between Israel and Hamas in Gaza has been more contained from a global economic perspective, but it also has potential to spin out of control and rock the global economy.

The potential for economic calamity in Gaza is not the fighting in Gaza itself but the possibility of escalation.

Israel faces an enemy 10 times more powerful than Hamas in the form of Hezbollah, which is located in Lebanon on Israel’s northern border, and which is heavily subsidized by Iran in terms of money, weapons and intelligence.

In addition to Hezbollah, the Houthi rebels in Yemen are firing missiles at Israel. The Houthis are a direct Iranian proxy intended to threaten Saudi Arabia, but are equally capable of threatening Israel.

If Hezbollah and Houthi attacks on Israel escalate, Israel will not limit their response to those two groups. They are likely to launch attacks on Iran itself going to the root of the problem. At that point, Iran may fire missiles at Israel and close the Straits of Hormuz.

$150 Oil

In anticipation of that, the U.S. has moved two aircraft carrier battle groups to the Eastern Mediterranean and stationed one Ohio-class nuclear submarine in the Red Sea. The idea is to deter Iran from attacking Israel, but they can be used to attack Iran if the war escalates to that level.

Russia is watching on the sidelines and will support Iran if necessary.

Saudi Arabia and Qatar, two of the world’s largest energy producers, are caught in the middle.

If those escalation scenarios play out even in part, expect oil prices to go to $150 per barrel or higher. That would put the U.S. and Western Europe in a recession worse than 2008 and the earlier oil shock of 1974.

In the 1974 recession, the Dow Jones index fell 45%. That would equate to a crash of over 15,000 Dow points from today’s levels.

I’m not making a hard prediction that this scenario will occur, but don’t rule it out.

It’s a good time to reduce your exposure to stocks, keep a lot of cash on hand and get your hands on physical gold and silver.

Tyler Durden Tue, 11/28/2023 - 12:10
Published:11/28/2023 11:39:44 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Gains 170 Points As Fed Officials Clash; Software Earnings Loom The Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 170 points in afternoon trading Tuesday amid housing news for September. Investors also await a key inflation report as two Federal Reserve officials gave opposing views on the direction of interest rates. The Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 0.5%, while the S&P 500 rose 0.3% in the stock market today. Published:11/28/2023 11:39:44 AM
[Markets] Major Indexes Are Nearing 2023 Highs The stock market’s November rally has put the big three indexes in striking distance of their 2023 highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average is off just 0.4% from its 2023 high of 35,630.68 hit on Aug. 1. Published:11/28/2023 11:09:11 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Flat As Investors Await Inflation Data, Fed Comments; Software Earnings Loom The Dow Jones Industrial Average was unchanged in midmorning trades Tuesday amid housing news for September. Investors also await key inflation and Fed comments. The S&P 500 fell 0.1% in the stock market today, while the Nasdaq also lagged by 0.1%. Published:11/28/2023 10:00:30 AM
[Markets] Retail investors may be sending a bullish signal Investors may be feeling bullish heading into year's end, with searches for "Santa Claus rally" on the rise on Investopedia. Investopedia Editor-In-Chief Caleb SIlver says investors have not only been searching for information about the seasonal stock market pattern, but also the highs for the Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI). "People have been waiting to buy stocks all year," Silver tells Yahoo Finance Live's Diane King Hall and Seana Smith. Watch the video above to find out what else people are searching for on Investopedia. For more expert insight and the latest market action, click here to watch this full episode of Yahoo Finance Live. Published:11/28/2023 9:54:24 AM
[Markets] Dow Turns Higher After Dovish Comments From Fed's Waller Stocks pared declines on Tuesday as the market reacted to [dovish comments](https://www.barrons.com/articles/fed-waller-inflation-economy-8ca30ecd) from Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 14 points. Published:11/28/2023 9:37:56 AM
[Markets] Yellow Flags Increase as Charts and Indicators Suggest Caution On the charts, the major equity indexes closed lower Monday with negative NYSE and Nasdaq internals as trading volumes rose from Friday's abbreviated session. Most closed near their session lows that saw the DJIA (see above) and Dow Jones Transports close below their near-term uptrend lines, shifting said trends to neutral from bullish and joining the S&P 500, Nasdaq Composite and Nasdaq 100 in that condition. Cumulative market breadth has managed to stay positive for the All Exchange, NYSE and Nasdaq thus far. Published:11/28/2023 9:04:02 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls After Key Housing Data; Micron Slides On Guidance The Dow Jones fell Tuesday morning after key housing data. Micron stock slid on updated guidance, while Boeing jumped on an upgrade. Published:11/28/2023 8:39:32 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall Ahead Of Key Housing Data; Boeing Jumps On Upgrade Dow Jones futures fell Tuesday morning ahead of key housing data. Boeing stock jumped on an analyst upgrade. Published:11/28/2023 7:24:35 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Dip Ahead Of Key Housing Data; Boeing Jumps On Upgrade Dow Jones futures fell Tuesday morning ahead of key housing data. Boeing stock jumped on an analyst upgrade. Published:11/28/2023 7:12:44 AM
[Markets] This Is the Single Most Telling Data Point That a Bear Market May Be on Tap in 2024 For well over a century, the stock market has outpaced all other asset classes. Since this decade began, the ageless Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), widely followed S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC), and growth-stock fueled Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) have traded off between bull and bear markets in successive years. In 2023, investors are smiling once again because the Dow, S&P 500, and Nasdaq have meaningfully rallied off their 2022 bear market lows. Published:11/28/2023 4:19:25 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Fed Chair Powell Speech Looms; Nvidia Rebounds From Buy Point Dow Jones futures: Fed Chair Jerome Powell's speech looms this week, while tech titan Nvidia stock rebounded from its latest buy point. Published:11/27/2023 3:57:42 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips As iRobot Stock Craters On This; 3 Strong Warren Buffett Stocks Are Near Entries The Dow Jones fell. iRobot stock plunged on acquisition news as Amazon stock gained. 3 Warren Buffett stocks are near entries. Tesla stock rose amid a lawsuit. Published:11/27/2023 3:36:32 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips As Shopify Surges; These 3 Strong Warren Buffett Stocks Are Near Buy Points The Dow Jones fell even as Shopify and Amazon stock gained. Some Warren Buffett stocks are near entries. Tesla stock rose amid a lawsuit. Published:11/27/2023 2:18:38 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls On Weak China Data; 6 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped Monday on weak economic data out of China. AMD stock leads these six best stocks to buy and watch. Published:11/27/2023 8:36:36 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall On Weak China Data; 6 Best Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures dropped Monday morning on weak economic data out of China. AMD stock leads these six best stocks to buy and watch. Published:11/27/2023 8:21:23 AM
[Markets] Is It Time to Buy These Duds of the Dow? 2023 has been a positive one for most members of the Dow Jones Industrial Average. Roughly one-third of the 30 stocks that make up that index are down by 5% or more this year, while the Dow has gained 6% through mid-November. Nike (NYSE: NKE) and Coca-Cola (NYSE: KO) are two of these Dow laggards, declining 9% and 10%, respectively, so far in 2023. Published:11/26/2023 6:26:49 AM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall St subdued in shortened Black Friday trading U.S. stock markets were shut on Thursday for the Thanksgiving holiday, and Friday's session ends at 1:00 p.m. ET. At 9:50 a.m. ET, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 66.60 points, or 0.19%, at 35,339.63, the S&P 500 was down 2.05 points, or 0.04%, at 4,554.57, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 34.41 points, or 0.24%, at 14,231.45. Among single stocks, Nvidia fell 1.1% after Reuters reported the chipmaker told customers in China it was delaying the launch of a new artificial intelligence chip to comply with U.S. export rules until the first quarter of next year. Published:11/24/2023 9:19:33 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises; Tesla Extends Losses And Nvidia Slides On AI Chip Delay The Dow Jones rose Friday, as the market headed for a four-week win streak. Tesla extended losses, while Nvidia sold off on an AI chip delay. Published:11/24/2023 8:35:19 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise; Nvidia Slides On AI Chip Delay Dow Jones futures rose Friday, as the stock market headed for a four-week win streak. Nvidia stock sold off on an AI chip delay. Published:11/24/2023 7:15:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As Microsoft Pops On Sam Altman Return; Cathie Wood Sells This Leader Up 250% The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose. Microsoft stock popped amid Sam Altman's return as ChatGPT CEO. Cathie Wood sold a top stock. Published:11/22/2023 2:25:41 PM
[Markets] Dow Up Over 100 Points in Midday Trading Stocks were rising midday Wednesday, as the big three indexes were on track to bounce back from the prior day’s declines. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 137 points, or 0.4%. The S&P 500 was up 0. Published:11/22/2023 12:09:41 PM
[Markets] This Usually Wrong Group of Traders Were Short at the Lows. Now They're Long... Now, after an almost 3,000-point gain on the DJIA, we are starting to see some issues suggesting some degree of consolidation/retracement of said gains is becoming more likely. On the charts, the major equity indexes closed mostly lower Tuesday except for the Dow Jones Transports. Additionally, the cumulative advance/decline lines for the All Exchange, NYSE and Nasdaq remain bullish as well. Published:11/22/2023 9:35:39 AM
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