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[Markets] Dow Jones Climbs As Earnings Season Kicks Off; JPMorgan Slides On Earnings Miss The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Wednesday, as earnings season kicks off. JPMorgan stock slid after missing earnings estimates. Published:4/13/2022 9:04:47 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Reverse Lower As Earnings Season Kicks Off; JPMorgan Falls On Earnings Miss Dow Jones futures reversed lower Wednesday, as earnings season kicks off. JPMorgan stock dropped after missing earnings estimates. Published:4/13/2022 8:05:01 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise As Earnings Season Kicks Off; JPMorgan Falls, Delta Rallies Dow Jones futures rose Wednesday, as earnings season kicks off. JPMorgan stock dropped after missing earnings estimates. Published:4/13/2022 7:29:33 AM
[Markets] Dow, major indexes on track for biggest blown lead in more than a month Major stock indexes erased gains to turn south in afternoon trade, on track for their biggest downside reversals in more than a month. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 53 points, or 0.2%, at 34,256 after rising 362 points, or 1.1%, at its session high. A close in negative territory would mark its biggest blown lead since March 11, according to Dow Jones Market Data. The S&P 500 was down 0.2% after previously rising as much as 1.3%, while the Nasdaq Composite gave up a 2% gain to trade 0 Published:4/12/2022 2:24:01 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones, Nasdaq See Gains Wither; Oil Jumps As This REIT Breaks Out The Dow Jones Industrial Average rebounded in Tuesday's session after trading lower on Monday. But the indexes are still trading near intraday lows. Published:4/12/2022 1:28:36 PM
[Markets] Is the Market Correction Over? All but the Dow Jones Transports, which was the only gainer, closed at or near their intraday lows as selling pressure persisted into the close. All the major equity indexes, except for the Dow Jones Transports, closed lower Monday with negative breadth and up/down volume on the NYSE and Nasdaq. Several negative technical events were registered as the S&P 500 (see above), Nasdaq Composite, Nasdaq 100 and Russell 2000 closed below support as the DJIA and Value Line Arithmetic Index joined them in closing below their 50-day moving averages. Published:4/12/2022 10:54:13 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Climb After Key Inflation Report As White House Warned Of 'Extraordinarily Elevated' Inflation Dow Jones futures were higher Tuesday morning after a key inflation report following Monday's stock market sell-off. Published:4/12/2022 7:52:35 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: What To Do After Today's Stock Market Sell-Off Ahead Of Key Inflation Report Dow Jones futures were little changed late. Here's what to do after today's stock market sell-off ahead of Tuesday's key inflation report. Published:4/11/2022 5:49:40 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones, Nasdaq Trade At Intraday Lows; Treasury Yields Climb While Oil Slides Lower The Dow Jones Industrial Average continued trading near session lows as Treasury yields climbed. Tech stocks led the downside. Published:4/11/2022 2:44:46 PM
[Markets] Dow transports bounce despite broader market selloff, led by Avis Budget and Delta stock rallies The Dow Jones Transportation Average bounced 97 points, or 0.7%, with 14 of 20 components gaining ground, to buck the selloff in the broader stock market. The rally comes after the Dow transports closed Friday at a six-month low, following a 13.4% plunge in eight days amid growing fears that rapidly deteriorating market conditions could lead to a freight recession. In comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has slipped just 1.6% over the same eight days. Monday's transport bounce comes whil Published:4/11/2022 1:14:44 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls; Twitter Climbs As Elon Musk Reverses Decision To Join Board; Nvidia Slides On Downgrade The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Monday. Twitter dropped after Tesla CEO Elon Musk reversed his decision to join the Twitter board. Published:4/11/2022 9:13:13 AM
[Markets] Down 6%, Is It Safe to Invest in the Dow Jones Today? Less than a month ago it looked like the stock market was on the mend. After falling by nearly 12% between January's peak and March's trough due to rekindled pandemic worries and Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the Dow Jones Industrial Average's (DJINDICES: ^DJI) 8% rally back from that low was viewed as a ray of hope. Before you consider the answer to that question, it might be useful to first ask: What if the premise of that question itself is flawed? Published:4/11/2022 8:41:57 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall; Twitter Drops As Elon Musk Reverses Decision To Join Board; Nvidia Slides On Downgrade Dow Jones futures fell Monday. Twitter stock dropped after Tesla CEO Elon Musk reversed his decision to join the Twitter board. Published:4/11/2022 7:43:44 AM
[Markets] 3 Dow Stocks With Up to 95% Upside, According to Wall Street For nearly 126 years, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) has been a popular benchmark of investing success. Initially a 12-stock index that was (not surprisingly) packed with industrial companies, the Dow Jones is now composed of 30 highly diverse, multinational businesses. The first Dow stock with incredible upside potential over the next year is semiconductor giant Intel (NASDAQ: INTC). Published:4/10/2022 12:00:51 AM
[Markets] Bonds & Stocks Battered As Hawkish Fed Flexes, Europe Panics Bonds & Stocks Battered As Hawkish Fed Flexes, Europe Panics

The reality of a looming recession appears to be striking home for stocks this week as 'Defensive' stocks hugely outperformed 'Cyclicals'...

Source: Bloomberg

After an exciting start to the week (when Nasdaq spiked and Small Caps puked on Monday as the 'QE trade' kicked back in with 'growth' bid), its been a one way street lower since as The Fed issued its most hawkish Minutes since Volcker. Small Caps and Nasdaq were the week's biggest losers...

Trucking, airlines and railway stocks were among the worst performers on the S&P 500 Index this week, with the Dow Jones Transportation Average staring at its worst weekly run since June 2020, as fears of an economic slowdown gripped investors.  Since the start of April, Dow Transpoorts are down 11%!! (Dow Industrials are basically unch)

The Majors all trod water around key technical levels...

Bonds were clubbed like a baby seal this week with the long-end drastically underperforming (led by a 33bp rise in 10Y Yields)...

Source: Bloomberg

2s30s and 2s10s uninverted this week (as did 5s30s briefly before closing the week at -1.5bps), which is actually the recession signal (as opposed to the inversion)...

Source: Bloomberg

Meanwhile, European elites are panicing as euro-redenomination rears its ugly head as peripheral sovereign yields started to surge (and The ECB quickly said it 'had tools' up its sleeves to save the world)...

Source: Bloomberg

Despite The Miami Bitcoin Conference (or perhaps because of it), crypto had a rough week

Source: Bloomberg

The dollar took out the FOMC spike highs and is trading back at its highest against its fiat peers since July 2020...

Source: Bloomberg

Gold and Silver rose on the week (despite a strong dollar) but it was Palladium that really soared as the London Platinum & Palladium Market has suspended both Russian refineries from its good delivery list. This effectively cuts off Russian palladium and platinum to the west...

Source: Bloomberg

Oil dropped for a second week in a row, holding above the pre-invasion levels still though, but WTI settled below $100. Both a very hawkish Fed and the increasingly stringent lockdowns in China weighed on demand

Finally, forget the 'r'-word, it's the 's'-word that should really scare you!!!

Source: Bloomberg

The central planner's nemesis is back...

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/08/2022 - 16:01
Published:4/8/2022 3:18:14 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Gains; Tesla Stock Falls Despite Elon Musk Cyber Rodeo Boast; Oil Play Gushes Past Buy Point The Dow Jones Industrial Average advanced even as the Nasdaq gave up ground. Tesla fell despite CEO Elon Musk boasting about its new factory at the Cyber Rodeo event while Epam Systems soared as it withdrew from Russia. Home Depot and Goldman Sachs were the top blue chips. Published:4/8/2022 2:47:55 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rises While Nasdaq Trades Negative; Transportation Stocks Dive On Analyst Downgrades The Dow Jones traded higher while tech stocks lagged. Financials also traded higher while LPL Financial staged a breakout. Published:4/8/2022 1:15:26 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Higher As Treasury Yields Continue To Rise; Tesla Falls After 'Cyber Rodeo' The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose Friday, as the 10-year Treasury yield extended gains. Tesla fell after its 'Cyber Rodeo' product launch. Published:4/8/2022 8:43:39 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Advance As Treasury Yields Continue To Rise; Tesla Climbs After 'Cyber Rodeo' Dow Jones futures climbed Friday, as the 10-year Treasury yield continues to rise. Tesla stock climbed after its 'Cyber Rodeo' product launch. Published:4/8/2022 7:43:16 AM
[Markets] Dow ends 87 points higher as stocks bounce after back-to-back declines Stocks ended with small gains Thursday, bouncing modestly after back-to-back declines tied to worries about the Federal Reserve's plans to continue tightening monetary policy. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed around 87 points higher, up 0.3%, near 34,584, according to preliminary figures, while the S&P 500 rose around 19 points, or 0.4%, to finish near 4,500. The Nasdaq Composite, which bore the brunt of the 2-day pullback, eked out a gain of around 8 points, or 0.1%, to close near 13,897 Published:4/7/2022 3:11:48 PM
[Markets] Stocks open with small losses as investors weigh Fed's monetary path Stocks were slightly lower in early trade, under pressure for a third straight session, as investors prepared for the Federal Reserve to aggressively raise interest rates and otherwise tighten monetary policy in its effort to get inflation under control. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 179 points, or 0.5%, to 34,316, while the S&P 500 shed 0.2% to 4,474. The Nasdaq Composite , which has led declines the past two sessions, edged up 0.1% to 13,899. Minutes of the Federal Reserve's March meet Published:4/7/2022 9:03:35 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Drops After Market Sell-Off; HP Soars On Warren Buffett Stake The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Thursday following two straight days of sharp market sell-offs. HP soared 15% on a Warren Buffett stake. Published:4/7/2022 8:34:19 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones, Nasdaq Pare Losses After Release Of Fed Minutes The Dow Jones fell after the Fed minutes were released, but then pared losses substantially about an hour before the market close. Published:4/6/2022 2:27:28 PM
[Markets] Stocks trade at or near session lows as investors weigh Fed balance-sheet plans Stocks fell back to or near session lows after briefly trimming losses following the release of minutes from the Federal Reserve's March policy meeting Wednesday afternoon. The summary said officials generally settled on shrinking the balance sheet by $95 billion a month after a 3-month phase-in. Officials stressed they made no final decision on winding down the $9 trillion portfolio but said the plan could start in May. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 291 points, or 0.8%, at 34,351, w Published:4/6/2022 1:27:02 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Slides After Stock Market Sell-Off As 10-Year Treasury Yield Surges The Dow Jones Industrial Average slid Wednesday, extending losses from Tuesday's stock market sell-off, as the 10-year Treasury yield surged. Published:4/6/2022 8:56:12 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Move Up As Tesla Rises Despite 'Exceptionally Difficult Quarter'; Twitter Soars On Musk Stake Dow Jones futures rose Monday, as Tesla advanced after the company reported record vehicle deliveries in an "exceptionally difficult" quarter. Published:4/4/2022 7:36:26 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Signal Slim Market Rally; Twitter Surges On Elon Musk Stake, Tesla Deliveries Hit High Dow Jones futures signal a small market rally. Tesla is near a buy point amid record deliveries. Twitter spiked as Elon Musk took a 9% stake. Published:4/4/2022 5:35:23 AM
[Markets] Bear Traps: "This Is Not About The 2s10s, There Is Far, Far More Going On... We See 20-30% Near-Term Downside" Bear Traps: "This Is Not About The 2s10s, There Is Far, Far More Going On... We See 20-30% Near-Term Downside"

By Larry McDonald, author of the Bear Traps report

When we think about the hard assets vs. financial assets debate -- clearly, we can see a “first-second inning” shift in play -- but what takes the trade to the next level? We still have not seen even the slightest indication of real financial asset selling. What will give the hard asset value equity thesis real, sustainable legs? It all comes down to the dollar. As we stressed in our March 10th note --“a Secular C change for the Greenback” - for much of the last 20 years the U.S. political leadership has been weaponizing its currency. One could say they have --“gone to this well” too many times, indeed. Keep in mind, today ´s sanctions roulette has a far different gene pool.

BEFORE the war in Ukraine -- inflation in the U.S. was already running near 8%. Now the United States has chosen to bring out its sanction's sword yet again -- but this time up against a country that has regional control -- influence over 10-15% of the global commodity complex.

We are NOT sure the risk-reward has been meticulously thought through here. The risks of a self-inflicted wound are sky high and complacency around these risks is even higher. At the very end of the day, U.S. sanctions and counter attacks from Putin - push inflation's roots much deeper below the surface and make higher price pressures far more sustainable than any time in recent memory. This mess gives “unintended consequences” a whole new meaning.

As we stressed in the summer of 2020 the “Cobra Effect” coming from a fiscal and monetary policy overdose delivers many surprises wrapped in inflationary pressures. But sanction games raise these stakes to a whole new level. "Our currency your problem” becomes “our commodities your problem" (to paraphrase Zoltan Pozsar).

Globally, the lights on the “USD weaponization” stage have NEVER been brighter. Even one of the U.S.'s most trusted allies - The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia - is looking at ways to lay off dollar risks and possibly trade their dark crude in red China yuan (CNH). We are NOT saying the U.S. dollar will lose its world's reserve currency status this decade - that is absurd - but make NO MISTAKE a near term diversification away from the greenback is certain - all coming with HIGH impact on rates, inflation and hard assets.

* * *

There are times when developments pile up so fast late in the week that the street doesn’t have time to process the significance of the data. The Wall Street research community has always been “slow on the draw” - but we believe strategists and analysts will be confronted with a “come to Jesus” moment in the weeks ahead.

What is the state of play you ask? We have a U.S. equity market that has been led by Utilities (XLU up 15% since late November vs. 3% for the S&P 500 over the same period) and Consumer Staples XLP for nearly five months now.

In the U.S., ISM Manufacturing fell in March to 57.1 vs. 59 est. and 58.6 in prior month lowest since September 2020. Above all, new orders light blue above) plunged from 61.7 to 53.8 At the same time, the Dow Jones Transports had one of the sharpest one day declines in years on Friday following a warning from FreightWaves CEO that a freight recession looms. Classic economic bellwethers like Union Pacific UNP dropped 8% day over day at one point; US banks (Citi) and consumer plays (GM and Home Depot) are 30-35% off their highs with the U.S. Treasury curve moving deeper into inversion territory.

CLEARLY this is NOT all about 2s-10s and the rates curve. There is FAR FAR FAR more going on.  AND the divergence between UMichigan and the Conference Board consumer data is screaming "stagflationary recession” as well. We see 20 30% near term downside for the Nasdaq.


* * *

The Fed Has to Convince the Market of What?

In essence, the Federal Reserve has convinced the market of two things: 1) rate raises will be higher than formerly believed; 2) such raises will do little to cure inflation, at least over the near term. Breakevens (the yield of an inflation-protected bond minus the yield of a non-inflation-protected bond of the same maturity) were at 3.42% at the start of the Fed’s March meeting. On Friday, that got to 3.57%.

So, traders decided that inflation was actually worse after the Fed meeting than before the Fed meeting. It is now at a record high, in fact.

Furthermore, the bear market rally shows that the stock traders do not believe they are fighting the Fed. Ultimately, stocks believe that for all the clamor around higher rates, net-net monetary policy is and will continue to be loose, just less loose than it was. Loose money means Fed Funds after inflation are negative. Since inflation is running near 8%, no reasonable person thinks Powell will make Fed Funds actually positive after inflation.

This explains the rise in yields on the 10 year: traders are trying to get more vig given ongoing inflation. It also explains the rise in gold, which in addition to its safe have bid is also an inflation hedge. So yes, the markets were surprised by a more hawkish Fed, but no, the markets don’t believe inflation is going away.

We still think that aggressive tightening will lead to recession, assuming one hasn’t already gotten underway. We still believe we are either in or about to enter stagflation (depending on one’s definition of the term). So faster hikes but inflation still rages - in our view - the S&P 500 will be 20 30% lower in this world.

Dollar Ceiling and Cash at the Treasury

Cash Balances at the Treasury are relatively high at the Treasury vs. prior pre Covid years, and well off the lows of a few months ago. Dollar seems to be near a congestion zone of potential supply.

If Treasury cash balances decline, the dollar may soften up a bit … With the HIGHEST conviction we believe we are in the middle of a secular change for the U.S. dollar. U.S. sanctions are FAR more of a dollar threat then most realize and they make sustained inflation FAR FAR FAR more certain.

UMich - Conference Board Consumer Sentiment Spread

Look at this spread and then look at the dates and events around it historically. The UMich survey is more 'inflation-sensitive'. There is a higher weighting towards durable goods, whereas job conditions is more important in the Conference Board survey. The  Conference Board survey (correlated with unemployment rate) tends to stay optimistic for much longer than the U Michigan survey, which is more about affordability and people’s perceptions of job security. So, the U of Mich survey is more of a leading indicator and the Conference Board survey is more of a real time coincident indicator. The UMich survey usually leads the Conference Board survey down into recession.

Tyler Durden Sun, 04/03/2022 - 19:30
Published:4/3/2022 6:32:35 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Loom Amid Market Rally Pullback; Tesla Deliveries Hit Record Dow Jones futures will open on Sunday evening, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. Tesla reported record first-quarter deliveries on Saturday, with the EV giant near possible buy points. China EV giant BYD reported monthly sales topped 100,000 for the first time. Published:4/3/2022 7:27:12 AM
[Markets] Is Now the Time to Go All-In on the Stock Market? The stock market has staged an epic rally in the last week or so. After briefly being down over 20% year to date (YTD), the Nasdaq Composite is now down less than 10% YTD. Similarly, the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average are both down less than 5% YTD and are officially out of correction territory. Published:4/2/2022 6:18:19 AM
[Markets] Yield curve inverts, WTI on track for biggest weekly loss since 2011 Yahoo Finance's Ines Ferre examines yield curve inversions, the price action surrounding crude oil, and the Dow Jones Transportation stocks. Published:4/1/2022 2:42:14 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips 100 Points As Recession Fears Grow; Qualcomm Dives As Bond Yields Spike The Dow Jones and other major stock indexes showed modest losses Friday, but there was plenty of damage below the surface. Published:4/1/2022 1:11:46 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Trim Gains After March Jobs Report Miss; Treasury Yields Surge Dow Jones futures rallied Friday after the March jobs report miss. Oil prices traded under $100 a barrel. The 10-year Treasury yield surged. Published:4/1/2022 7:47:27 AM
[Markets] Futures Grind Higher To Start New Quarter With All Eyes On Payrolls Futures Grind Higher To Start New Quarter With All Eyes On Payrolls

Following yesterday's furious quarter-end puke, which saw the S&P tumble 50 points in the last hour of trading as a massive $10 billion Market on Close sell imbalance sparked a liquidation frenzy, U.S. index futures started off the new quarter on the right foot, rising as investors weighed a drop in oil prices sparked by Biden's unprecedented pre-midterm election draining of the petroleum reserve, ongoing developments in the Ukraine war and tightening monetary policy ahead of ISM and payrolls data. S&P500 and Nasdaq 100 futures gained around 0.5% before March payrolls figures later on Friday, after U.S. stocks ended their worst quarter since the start of the pandemic. Europe’s Stoxx 600 gained after its worst quarter since the pandemic bear market. Oil reversed an earlier decline as euro-area inflation accelerated to another all-time high and Russia’s Gazprom PJSC started telling clients how to pay for gas in rubles. Treasury yields rose and the dollar was steady as traders await the jobs report, which unless it is a total disaster, will strengthen the case for a 50bps rate hike in May. U.S. data on Friday include nonfarm payroll and ISM data while no major company is expected to report earnings.

U.S.-listed Chinese stocks jumped in premarket trading after Bloomberg News reported that Chinese authorities are preparing to give U.S. regulators full access to auditing reports of the majority of the 200-plus companies listed in New York. Alibaba shares rose 5.8% in premarket trading; E-commerce peers up 4% and Pinduoduo up 7.9%. Didi Global was among the top gainers, rising more than 18%, following a 15% drop Thursday. Meanwhile, shares of Lulu’s Fashion Lounge Holdings Inc. rose 27% in U.S. premarket after better-than-expected fourth-quarter and full-year guidance. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Chicken Soup For The Soul Entertainment (CSSE US) shares rise 21% in U.S. premarket, rebounding from yesterday’s losses, after Guggenheim’s Michael Morris (buy) said the company posted a “solid” 4Q performance, with sales modestly below his estimates but adjusted Ebitda slightly better.
  • GameStop (GME US) shares rose 15% in premarket trading and were on course to open at the highest level this year after the video-game retailer announced plans for a stock split, fueling a rally in fellow so-called meme stocks.
  • Redwire (RDW US) slumps 22% in U.S. premarket trading after the space infrastructure company reported 2021 results, with Jefferies saying that while the firm’s outlook was encouraging, it was disappointing versus prior expectations.

Meanwhile, the curve between two-year and 10-year Treasuries yields is flipping between positive and negative, signaling that the countdown to the next recession has begun (see "The Yield Curve Inverts: What Happens Next").

“The market, like the Fed, has no idea how much tightening is necessary to stop a wage inflation spiral, but by upping the ante on the market with a series of 50bp rate hikes this year and a higher terminal rate, it can regain the control of the narrative and market expectations,” said Sebastien Galy, senior macro strategist at Nordea.

Investors begin a new quarter wondering if the fighting in Ukraine, the isolation of Russia and the Fed’s increasingly hawkish turn will engender still more volatility and losses for stocks and bonds. Raw materials are the only key asset class to deliver major gains so far in 2022.

Meanwhile, in Ukraine, talks between Ukraine and Russia resumed Friday via video link, following meetings earlier in the week in Turkey. Russia said two Ukrainian military helicopters made a rare strike across the border, hitting an oil tank facility in the city of Belgorod. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is preparing a response to Ukraine’s proposals on ending hostilities; Lavrov also said Russia is preparing a response to Ukraine's proposals, says there has been movement forward; he also added that Russia has seen "much more understanding" of the situation in Crimea and Donbass from the Ukrainian side. Lavrov says peace talks with Ukraine need to continue. UK reportedly urged Ukraine not to back down and is concerned US, France and Germany will push Ukraine to “settle” and make significant concessions to Russia, according to The Times citing a government source. Mayor of Ukraine's Mariupol says Russian forces are not allowing humanitarian aid in; City is dangerous to try and exit.

European equities also drifted higher after a slow start. Euro Stoxx 50 rises 0.7%. IBEX outperforms, adding 0.9%, FTSE 100 lags. Retailers, banks and miners are the strongest performing sectors. Euro-zone inflation accelerated to another all-time high as Russia’s invasion roiled global supply chains and provided a fresh driver for already-soaring energy costs. Euro-zone March consumer prices surged 7.5% from a year ago, up from 5.9% in February and far higher than the 6.7% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey.

The Stoxx Europe 600 Index however, was on the rise, led by retail and banking stocks.  Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • Santander shares rise as much as 3.2% after reiterating its financial targets for the year and saying its business remained resilient in the first quarter. The statement provides reassurance of recent trends, Barclays writes.
  • Vestas Wind Systems gains as much as 5.4% after announcing orders totaling 2,179 MW in 1Q, with Handelsbanken saying the order intake is “promising” and well-above estimates.
  • Bridgepoint Group jumps as much as 7.8% after the private-equity firm was upgraded to buy from neutral at Citi following a drop in the shares since the broker’s initiation in August 2021.
  • Assicurazioni Generali rises as much as 3.8%, climbing for a third session, amid speculation the Italian insurer may get involved in industry M&A going forward.
  • Greggs gains as much as 2.9% after Berenberg reiterates its buy recommendation, saying there is a “rare opportunity” to invest in the U.K. bakery chain at a “reasonable multiple.”
  • Yara climbs as much as 1.8% after the company said it pre-ordered 15 floating bunkering terminals from Azane Fuel Solutions to establish a carbon-free ammonia fuel bunker network in Scandinavia.
  • Stratec rises as much as 21% after a Bloomberg report that EQT and KKR are among several private equity firms weighing bids for the German health-care technology provider.
  • Energiekontor jumps as much as 6.8%, extending its record high, after Warburg raised its price target to a Street- high, saying there is an “appetite for more” following Thursday’s FY results.
  • Sodexo shares fall as much as 10% after the French caterer said the environment “remains uncertain” due to intermittent local outbreaks of Covid-19 and the war in Ukraine.

Russian stocks gained for a third day, the longest winning streak since trading resumed on March 24. Talks between Ukraine and Russia will resume Friday via video link, following meetings earlier in the week in Turkey. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said Moscow is preparing a response to Ukraine’s proposals on ending hostilities.  

The manufacturing resurgence in Europe and Asia softened in March as factories saw worsening supply shortages and soaring costs after Russia’s invasion. Friday’s data follow inflation overshoots this week from Spain and Germany that prompted investors to bring forward bets on when the European Central Bank will end almost eight years of negative interest rates.

Earlier in the session, Asian stock retreated for a second day amid concerns about the extent the war in Ukraine will hurt global growth and as Chinese tech shares extended a selloff.   The MSCI Asia-Pacific Index slid as much as 1.1% before paring about two-thirds of that loss. The benchmark still remained on pace to finish the week up 0.3%, extending its winning streak to a third week.  Tech shares including Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Alibaba were major drags on Friday as traders assessed economic data and continued to eye possible U.S. delistings of Chinese firms. Equities in Japan underperformed the region while China’s consumer shares boosted the mainland benchmark.  Investors are watching the impact of soaring inflation and higher interest rates on global growth as the war in Europe continues. Asia’s manufacturing resurgence softened in March as factories saw worsening supply shortages and surging costs after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Data on Friday showed Japan’s business mood weakened while South Korean imports jumped on rising costs.   Also on investors’ radars are the trading halts of dozens of firms in Hong Kong from today after they missed a deadline to report annual results, increasing uncertainty in the market.  “We are in the middle of a war between two globally vital suppliers of energy and food,” said Justin Tang, the head of Asian research at United First Partners. “The ramifications are plenty and as long as there is no cease fire, we will continue to experience ebbs and flows in volatility.”   Asian stocks finished their worst quarter since early 2020 on Thursday with a drop of nearly 7%. Still, the measure has bounced back from the quarter-low touched in mid-March.  

Sri Lanka’s stock market stopped trading on Friday and the rupee extended its loss after protests against surging living costs and daily power cuts amid dwindling foreign-exchange reserves. Trading in 33 Hong Kong-listed stocks was halted after a number of firms missed a deadline to report annual results

Japanese stocks fell in Tokyo fell for a third day after U.S. peers declined and the Tankan survey showed a gloomier view of business conditions among Japan’s biggest manufacturers. The yen slipped 0.5% against the dollar during the trading day, helping stocks trim earlier losses. Still, both major gauges capped their first weekly losses in three, shedding more than 1.7% each since March 25. Electronics and auto makers were the biggest drags as the Topix fell 0.1% Friday, paring an earlier slide of as much as 1.3%. Tokyo Electron and Fast Retailing were the largest contributors to a 0.6% loss in the Nikkei 225.  The Tankan index of sentiment dropped to 14 from a revised 17 in the previous quarter, the first deterioration since June 2020, according to the central bank’s quarterly report Friday. The business mood among large non-manufacturers slipped to 9 from a revised 10 in the December report

India’s benchmark stocks index completed its third weekly gain in four weeks, as local buying helped steady war-induced volatility in equities. The S&P BSE Sensex rose 1.2% to 59,276.69 in Mumbai, taking it weekly advance to 3.3%. The key gauge completed its best monthly climb since August in the previous session. The NSE Nifty 50 Index rose 1.2% to 17,670.45 on Friday.  HDFC Bank Ltd. surged 2.4% to its highest in more than a month and was the biggest boost to the Sensex, which saw 25 of the 30 shares trading higher. All 19 sectoral sub-indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. rose, led by a measure of utilities. Funds in India bought $5.2 billion worth of shares in March, while foreign investors extended their selling to a sixth consecutive month. The new fiscal year and quarter have started with concerns about the war in Ukraine, a hawkish U.S. Federal Reserve and the impact of higher commodity costs on company earnings.   “We expect FY23 to witness continued volatility in equity markets, especially in the first half of the year with rising interest rates globally and high inflation, which is expected to persist,” Nishit Master, portfolio manager at Axis Securities Ltd., wrote in a note.  The brokerage expects the Nifty index to rise to 20,200 by year-end and is positive on metals, hospitals, oil refining and capital goods.   

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar index inched up as the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers; commodity currencies and the Swedish krona led gains while the yen was the worst performer. The euro fell and European bonds came off lows after euro-zone March consumer prices surged 7.5% from a year ago, up from 5.9% in February and more than the 6.7% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey. The pound consolidated against the euro, after rebounding from its weakest level since December on Thursday; the yen slid for the first time in four days. Japanese government bond yield curve resumed its steepening even as the Bank of Japan raised the amounts it plans to buy through regular market operations this quarter. Australia’s yield curve bear flattened, following a similar move in Treasuries. New Zealand dollar weakened; a gauge of consumer confidence dropped to an all-time low last month, according to ANZ data.

In rates, Treasuries dropped across the curve Friday as investors positioned before U.S. jobs data forecast to show average hourly earnings accelerated in March, backing the case for a faster pace of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes. Treasury futures traded off session lows in early U.S. trading, although yields remain cheaper by 4bp to 7bp across the curve after Thursday’s late month-end selling was extended in early Asia. Fixed income weakness is Treasuries centric, with both bunds and gilts outperforming on the day. 10-year yields trade around 2.40% after peaking at 2.437% in early European session - bunds and gilts outperform by 4bp and 2bp in the sector. Long-end led losses steepens 5s30s spread by 1.4bp and 2s10s by 2bp on the day; March jobs report is due at 8:30am with headline change in payrolls expected at 490k vs. 678k prior -- whisper number is higher than estimate at 529k. In Europe, the German curve bear steepened, cheapening up 2-3bps across the back end but broadly brushing off a hot Eurozone inflation print . Peripheral spreads mostly widen to core with long end Spain underperforming. Cash USTs maintain Asia’s bear flatten bias ahead of today’s payrolls release; the belly cheaper by ~6bps.

In commodities, crude futures recoup Asia’s weakness. WTI returns to little changed, regaining a $100-handle after a brief dip in late Asia. Base metals are mixed; LME zinc rises 1.4%, outperforming peers. LME copper lags. Spot gold falls roughly $2 to trade near $1,935/oz.

The US will also have the March ISM manufacturing reading, while global manufacturing PMIs are due. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Centeno, De Cos, Makhlouf, Schnabel and Knot, as well as the Fed’s Evans.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,548.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.3% to 457.37
  • MXAP down 0.4% to 179.71
  • MXAPJ little changed at 590.96
  • Nikkei down 0.6% to 27,665.98
  • Topix down 0.1% to 1,944.27
  • Hang Seng Index up 0.2% to 22,039.55
  • Shanghai Composite up 0.9% to 3,282.72
  • Sensex up 0.7% to 58,980.92
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 little changed at 7,493.80
  • Kospi down 0.6% to 2,739.85
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.58%
  • Euro little changed at $1.1065
  • Brent Futures down 1.0% to $103.69/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.3% to $1,931.84
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.16% to 98.47

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • China’s factory activity fell to its worst level since the pandemic’s onset two years ago and a housing slump showed no sign of easing, darkening the outlook for the world’s second- largest economy
  • Bundesbank President Joachim Nagel urged the European Central Bank to respond to quickly accelerating price pressures.
  • Australia named Michele Bullock as the Reserve Bank’s first female deputy governor, propelling her to the front of the queue to succeed Philip Lowe in the top job
  • At the U.S. Commerce Department, Secretary Gina Raimondo’s teams are working on ways to further undermine Putin’s ability to wage war
  • For all the hardships visited on consumers at home and the financial chokehold put on the government from abroad, Bloomberg Economics expects Russia will earn nearly $321 billion from energy exports this year, an increase of more than a third from 2021.
  • Iron ore futures in Asia gained with investors anticipating a strong recovery following the lifting of virus-related restrictions, even as news of Chinese housing giants missing earnings-report deadlines emerged
  • Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s government signed off on the reappointment of one of the Bank of Japan’s key policy architects in a move that suggests the central bank is looking for policy continuity after Governor Haruhiko Kuroda steps down next April

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk:

Asia-Pac stocks were cautious following the uninspiring lead from Wall St, where the major indices closed off their worst quarterly performance in two years and as the region digested weak data releases. ASX 200 traded rangebound as pressure from losses in tech, industrials and financials was counterbalanced by resilience in the commodity-related sectors and upgrade to Australian PMI data. Nikkei 225 was subdued after mixed Tankan data in which the headline Large Manufacturing Index topped estimates, but Large Manufacturers and Non-Manufacturers' sentiment worsened for the first time in 7 quarters. Hang Seng and were mixed with sentiment clouded after the PBoC drained liquidity andShanghai Comp. Chinese Caixin Manufacturing PMI slipped into contraction territory, although the mainland recovered amid the partial lifting of the lockdown in Shanghai and as Chinese press continued to advocate monetary easing

Top Asian News

  • Shanghai Shifts Lockdown; Singapore Border: Virus Update
  • Quarantine Eased for Hong Kong Flight Crew in Boost for Cathay
  • China Chipmaker’s Buyer Said to Miss $9 Billion Payment Deadline
  • Kasikornbank Said to Weigh Sale of $2 Billion Asset Manager Unit

European equities (Stoxx 600 +0.6%) opened marginally firmer before extending on gains after positive commentary from Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov. The Stoxx 600 set to close the week out with marginal gains of around 0.6% in what has been a choppy week for indices. Sectors in Europe are higher across the board with Retail, Banks and Autos top of the leaderboard.

Top European News

  • London IPO Market Hasn’t Been This Bad in More Than a Decade
  • Tiber Crossing Left in Limbo After War Sends Steel Surging
  • Global Manufacturing Rebound Falters as War Takes Its Toll
  • EU to Warn China It Will Hurt Global Role by Helping Russia

In FX, the Yen has relented as yields rebound and repatriation demand dries up - Usd/Jpy bounced further from recent lows beyond near term resistance through to circa 122.75. Greenback has regrouped in advance of NFP with the DXY straddling 98.500. Aussie outperforms as risk appetite picks up and 0.7500 continues to prove pivotal. Euro finds a base after marked month end reversal as hot inflation offset lukewarm manufacturing PMIs - Eur/USD holding around 1.1050 after soaking up stops on a minor and brief half round number break.Yuan weaker after sub-50 Caixin Chinese manufacturing print, softer PBoC Cny midpoint fix and 7-day liquidity drain - USDCNH above 6.3650.

In commodities, WTI (+0.6%) and Brent (+0.8%) kicked the session off on the backfoot following yesterday’s SPR announcement by the Biden administration with WTI breaching it's weekly low printed on Tuesday at USD 98.44 with Brent so far unable to take out its weekly low of USD 102.19. Since then, crude benchmarks have attempted to claw back lost ground and sit in minor positive territory. White House Press Secretary Psaki said a gas tax holiday is not off the table, according to Reuters. US House Majority Leader Hoyer said oil companies should either produce on leases and drill wells or pay a fee for unused leases and idled wells, according to EIN News. Russian oil and gas condensate production slipped to 11.01mln BPD in March vs. 11.08mln BPD in February, according to Reuters sources Gazprom says refilling storage ahead of winter will be a challenge for the EU. Gazprom says it has begun sending requests of gas-for-rouble payment switch to clients today; sats it remains a responsible partner and continues to secure gas supplies

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: March Change in Nonfarm Payrolls, est. 490,000, prior 678,000
    • Change in Private Payrolls, est. 495,000, prior 654,000
    • Change in Manufact. Payrolls, est. 32,000, prior 36,000
    • March Unemployment Rate, est. 3.7%, prior 3.8%
    • Underemployment Rate, prior 7.2%
    • Labor Force Participation Rate, est. 62.4%, prior 62.3%
    • Average Hourly Earnings YoY, est. 5.5%, prior 5.1%; MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0%
    • Average Weekly Hours All Emplo, est. 34.7, prior 34.7
  • 09:45: March S&P Global US Manufacturing PM, est. 58.5, prior 58.5
  • 10:00: March ISM Employment, est. 53.1, prior 52.9
    • ISM Prices Paid, est. 80.0, prior 75.6
    • ISM New Orders, est. 58.5, prior 61.7
    • ISM Manufacturing, est. 59.0, prior 58.6
  • 10:00: Feb. Construction Spending MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 1.3%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Filling in while Jim is on holiday, my quick scan for sports-related injuries for this introduction yielded nothing. Meanwhile, a scan of quarter end markets showed sovereign bonds again yielding less than nothing, as 2yr bund yields (-7.8bps) fell back below 0 to -0.09% while the 2s10s Treasury curve closed below zero for the first time since 2019. Yields farther out the curve followed oil and transatlantic equity prices lower as well. No rest for the weary, though, as today’s US employment data kickstarts the new quarter.

Before diving into markets, a couple of research plugs.

*** Jim’s latest chartbook, “The yield curve inverts … what happens next?”, is out. We looked at all things inversion, including recession risks, asset price performance, the Fed’s viewpoint, our economists' latest recession models and also how yield curve inversions have been explained away in previous cycles. You can take a look here ***

Staying in advertising mode, with Q2 starting, we will publish our Q1 performance review shortly. Q1 was a dramatic time in financial markets, with Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, accelerating inflation, the Fed hiking rates, and the yield curve closing the quarter inverted. As a result, it was a pretty bad month for most assets, with losses across equities, credit, and sovereign bonds. The big exception were commodities as energy, metals and agricultural goods realized large gains. See the full report out shortly for more.

Turning back to yesterday’s markets, Brent and WTI crude futures fell -4.88% and -6.99%, respectively, following the US’s plan to release 1m barrels per day from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve for the next six months to combat eye-watering energy prices, the largest such SPR release on record. In an address to the nation, President Biden also announced measures to pressure domestic producers to increase their supply to the market along with easing regulations that currently restrict oil transport between American ports to American vessels. The President will also invoke the Defense Production Act to compel manufactures to prioritize the production of minerals used for large capacity batteries.

While the UK is considering whether to join the reserve-releasing effort, OPEC+ production will be steady as she goes, with the cartel ratifying the plan to increase production only gradually by 432k barrels a day, in line with expectations. Even without a material increase in OPEC+ production, reports overnight that the US was strategically aligned with allies on Iran inched us closer to a nuclear deal that would open up Iranian supply. Crude oil futures are down a further -3.23% as we go to press this morning. The debate about Russian natural gas invoicing appeared to reach a denouement yesterday; European importers will be able to pay for Russian supply in euros and dollars as contracts specify, with the conversion to rubles happening internally within Russia. Nevertheless, European natural gas gained +5.83%.

On the war, more reports joined the chorus signalling that Russian troops were indeed retreating from certain theatres, including various cities, airports, and the Chernobyl nuclear facility. While positive, the consensus is the locus of the war is moving to the east, rather than ending. Negotiations between Ukraine and Russia are set to resume today.

Foreshadowed in the lede, European sovereign yields staged a large rally to end the quarter. 10yr bunds, OATs, and BTPs all rallied more than -9bps, led by falling inflation compensation on the drawdown in oil prices; 10yr breakevens across Germany, France, and Italy, narrowed -7.0bps, -8.1bps, and -6.5bps, respectively. The rallies weren’t confined to the long-end, as -6.8bps of expected ECB rate hikes through 2022 were priced out as well.

It was smoother sailing for Treasury yields after a stormy quarter, but 2s10s nevertheless managed to dip below zero to close the quarter after briefly testing the waters earlier this week. 2yr yields climbed +2.8bps while 10yr yields dropped anchor, falling -1.1bps, leaving 2s10s at -0.06bps. As was the case earlier this week, the curve re-steepened after the initial inversion plunge, trading at +1.2bps this morning.

Stocks retreated on both sides of the Atlantic, with the STOXX 600 and S&P 500 falling -0.94% and -1.57%, cementing the first negative quarterly return for both indices since the original Covid onslaught in Q1 2020. STOXX 600 utilities (+0.37%) were the only sector in the green across both indices, with cyclical stocks the largest underperformers. The retreat was likely exacerbated by quarter end, which served to push the VIX (+1.23ppts) back above 20 for the first time this week.

Major Asian bourses are trading on the downbeat with tech stocks among the worst performers. Losses in the region are led by the Hang Seng (-0.72%), extending its previous session losses, with Chinese tech stocks listed in Hong Kong plunging. The Nikkei (-0.42%) is lagging after the BOJ’s quarterly Tankan business sentiment survey revealed that sentiment at Japan’s large manufacturers soured in the first three months of 2022. Chinese Caixin services PMI dropped to 48.1 in March, the steepest rate of contraction since February 2020. The deterioration was mainly triggered by the domestic Covid-19 resurgence. Despite the underwhelming data, Chinese stocks are outperforming the region, with the Shanghai Composite up +0.69%.

Outside of Asia, stock futures in the US are pointing to a positive start, with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.25%), Nasdaq (+0.26%) and Dow Jones (+0.25%) all trading higher.

In data, US PCE increased 0.4%, month-over-month, in line with expectations, while the year-over-year measure moved to fresh four-decade high of 5.4%. The Chicago PMI printed at 67.9 vs. expectations of 57.0, while weekly initial jobless claims ticked up to a still low 202k vs. expectations of 196k. German unemployment fell by -18k in March (vs. -20k expected), which is the smallest monthly decline since last April. In turn, the unemployment rate remained at 5.0%, in line with expectations.

To the day ahead, Q2 kicks off with the March US employment situation report in the New York morning. Strong January and February data coincided with upside surprises and revisions to payrolls data, lending credence to the Fed’s position that the labor market is ready to withstand much tighter monetary policy, if not beckons it. Our US economists expect nonfarm payrolls to increase by +400k, bringing the unemployment rate to a post-pandemic low of 3.7%.

The Euro Area flash CPI will be the other main data, due at 10 am London, and is expected to show inflation rise to a fresh record since the single currency’s formation. After the massive upside surprises from Germany and Spain’s releases on Wednesday, yesterday brought another above-consensus print from France, where inflation rose to +5.1% on the EU-harmonised measure (vs. +4.9% expected). Meanwhile, Italy was the only one of the 4 biggest Euro Area countries not to see an upside surprise, but the +7.0% print (vs. +7.2% expected) nevertheless marked a gain over February’s +6.2% release.

The US will also have the March ISM manufacturing reading, while global manufacturing PMIs are due. Otherwise, central bank speakers include the ECB’s Centeno, De Cos, Makhlouf, Schnabel and Knot, as well as the Fed’s Evans.

Tyler Durden Fri, 04/01/2022 - 08:06
Published:4/1/2022 7:09:38 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Continues To Pull Back After Recent Rally; Investors Await Biden's Release Of Oil Reserves The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near session lows on Thursday as the major indexes continued to pull back moderately this week. The pause comes after a series of powerful up days established the new market uptrend in the middle of March. Published:3/31/2022 1:33:00 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Continues To Pullback After Recent Rally; Investors Await Biden's Release Of Oil Reserves The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded near session lows on Thursday, as the major indexes continued to pull back moderately this week. The pause comes after a series of powerful up-days established the new market uptrend in the middle of March. Published:3/31/2022 1:07:10 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls; Oil Prices Dive As U.S. Eyes Reserve Release The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell Thursday. Oil prices dived on news that the Biden administration is planning to tap U.S. oil reserves. Published:3/31/2022 9:01:29 AM
[Markets] Futures Flat On Last Day Of Dismal Quarter, Oil Tumbles As Biden Preps Massive SPR Release Futures Flat On Last Day Of Dismal Quarter, Oil Tumbles As Biden Preps Massive SPR Release

US equity futures were muted and flat on the last trading day of the month and quarter, fading a modest overnight gain as the underlying index headed for its first quarterly decline in two years on worries about surging inflation, hawkish monetary policy and an economic slowdown. Contracts on the S&P 500 were down 0.1% at 730 a.m. ET while Dow futures were little changed and Nasdaq 100 futures rose 0.2%, while European stocks fell, heading for the first quarterly decline since 2020. Asian equities retreated on lackluster Chinese PMI data and regulatory concerns. Treasuries held gains with the 10Y yield dropping to 2.31% (from 2.50% earlier this week when the 2s10s inverted) and the dollar ticked up against almost all G-10 peers. Fed watchers will be focused on the PCE deflator, which may have sped up in February.

The big overnight action was in oil, which plunged following the news late on Wednesday that the White House was (again) mulling a plan to release roughly a million barrels a day from reserves to combat crashing Democrat approval rating ahead of the midterms as a result of soaring gasoline prices coupled with supply shortages in response to US sanctions of Russia. The proposal, which includes 180 million barrels being freed over several months, may help the market rebalance this year but won't solve a structural deficit, Goldman said.

The reserve release news came just hours ahead of an OPEC+ supply meeting, where the cartel is expected to stick with its strategy of a modest output boost in May.

Equities globally are poised for their worst quarter since the early days of the pandemic on concerns about tightening monetary policy, red-hot inflation and a looming recession. While stocks remained resilient to the historic rout in bond markets this month, some strategists see little room for them to rally this year, partly as high costs threaten corporate profits. French inflation accelerated more than expected to reach another record, following unexpectedly high readings on Wednesday from Germany and Spain.

“Our base case now is for only modest upside for stocks,” said Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, adding that he expects the S&P 500 to end the year at 4,700, about 2% higher than current levels. He also trimmed his estimate for global earnings growth to 8% from 10% for 2022.

“Aside from quarter-end considerations, oil is very much the center of attention,” Simon Ballard, chief economist at First Abu Dhabi Bank, wrote in a note to investors. Still, “all the usual suspects are still in play, keeping the market in check, including the specter of the Fed pursuing an aggressive path of monetary policy normalization over the coming months.”

Elsewhere, officials from Ukraine and Russia are set to resume talks via video conference on Friday, according to a Ukrainian negotiator, though there was no immediate confirmation from Moscow. Friday’s video discussions between Ukraine and Russia would follow in-person talks this week in Turkey that didn’t produce a short-term cease-fire or major progress toward a broader peace deal. Ukraine’s negotiator said the hope was to have enough agreed on paper in another week to be able to move toward a meeting between President Vladimir Putin and President Volodymyr Zelenskiy.

Going back to the US market, shares in big U.S. energy companies slumped in premarket trading along with crude prices drop (Exxon Mobil -1.9% and Chevron -1.5% premarket, Occidental Petroleum -2.6%, Gran Tierra Energy -3.1%, Imperial Petroleum -3.8%, Camber Energy -4.3%). Bank stocks are also lower putting them on track to fall for a second straight day as the U.S. 10-year yield falls to 2.31%. Goldman Sachs warned that stagflation could make bank stocks less profitable. U.S.-listed Chinese stocks slipped in premarket trading as Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler dialed down prospects of an imminent deal to allow Chinese firms to keep trading on American exchanges. Russian equities advanced as the nation partly lifted the short-selling ban on local stocks on Thursday, removing one of the measures that helped limit the declines in the market after a record long shutdown. Other notable premarket movers include:

  • Vipshop ADRs (VIPS US) rise 8.4% in premarket trading after the Chinese online retailer announces a $1b share buyback plan.
  • Robinhood Markets (HOOD US) shares rise 1.4% in U.S. premarket trading, set to extend the previous day’s 24% gains after the online brokerage announced plans to expand the trading day by four hours, while Morgan Stanley begins coverage of the stock with an equal-weight rating.
  • Energy companies decline in premarket trading as crude prices drop. The U.S. is considering tapping its reserves again in a potentially massive release aimed at managing inflation and supply shortages. Exxon Mobil (XOM US) -1.9%, Chevron -1.5% (CVX US).
  • U.S.-listed Chinese stocks are heading for a lower open after Securities and Exchange Commission Chair Gary Gensler dialed down prospects of an imminent deal to allow Chinese firms to keep trading on American exchanges. Alibaba (BABA US) fell 1.7% in premarket, while its e-commerce rival (JD US) lost 2.8%.
  • Advanced Micro Devices (AMD US) shares fall 1.3% in U.S. premarket trading, after the semiconductor maker is downgraded to equal- weight from overweight at Barclays, which says that the growth story “needs a pause.”.
  • IZEA Worldwide (IZEA US) shares surge 27% in U.S. premarket trading after the influencer marketing company reported fourth-quarter earnings and saw total revenue increase 62% to a record of $10.3m.

In Europe, the Stoxx 600 reversed initial gains and dropped 0.3%, the Euro Stoxx 50 fell 0.2%, and other major indexes trade flat to slightly lower with retailers, telecoms and energy the worst performing sectors. Retail and telecom stocks led declines while utilities and insurance sectors outperformed. Some notable premarket movers:

  • Brewin Dolphin shares rise as much as 62% and trade slightly below the agreed bid for the firm from RBC Wealth Management. The transaction, being carried out at a high premium, highlights the attractiveness of the U.K. wealth sector, analysts say.
  • Orpea shares climb to their highest level in almost 2 months after Societe Generale says that allegations of mistreatment at its facilities are likely to have “limited” financial impact.
  • Fresenius SE shares rise as much as 3.3% on news that the company’s Kabi intravenous drug unit has bought a majority stake in mAbxience SL and acquired Ivenix.
  • Pernod Ricard shares rise as much as 2.6% as Citi says 3Q sales are likely to beat expectations, also lifting its which lifts EPS estimates and PT, as well as opening a positive catalyst watch.
  • Tate & Lyle shares gain as much as 3.7% after saying it would buy Quantum Hi-Tech, a prebiotic dietary fiber business in China. The deal enhances Tate & Lyle’s portfolio, Goodbody says.
  • Pearson shares rise as much as 3.5%, rebounding from Wednesday’s losses after private equity firm Apollo Global Management said it won’t make an offer for the education publisher.

Earlier in the session, Chinese data and regulatory concerns weighed on Asia stocks. China's NBS manufacturing PMI declined to 49.5 in March from 50.2 in February, missing estimates, likely due to Covid-related restrictions and geopolitical tensions. The output sub-index in the NBS manufacturing PMI survey fell by 0.9 points in March, and the new orders sub-index fell by 1.9 points. The NBS non-manufacturing PMI fell to 48.4 in March from 51.6 in February, also missing expectations, and entirely driven by the decline of services sector due to recent Covid outbreaks in multiple provinces. Separately, Bloomberg reported that Chinese authorities are considering a plan to raise several hundred billion yuan for a new fund to backstop troubled financial firms.

Asian stocks retreated after a two-day advance, as the U.S. securities regulator’s tough stance on a potential delisting of Chinese firms and weak China manufacturing data worried investors.  The MSCI Asia Pacific Index declined as much as 0.8%, and was poised to finish its worst quarterly performance in two years, with Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing and Tencent among the biggest drags. Benchmarks in Hong Kong and China underperformed regional peers. Japanese equities headed for a second day of declines while Australia stocks retreated after seven straight day of gains in response to a stimulatory federal budget.  The U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission’s chief said Chinese firms need to fully comply with audit requirements in order to stay on American exchanges. Meantime, China’s manufacturing contracted in March, underscoring the growing toll of lockdowns. Investors are also watching how a tumble in oil prices can alleviate inflation risks and affect corporate earnings. 

“If you look at the PMIs there’s an obvious explanation for why PMIs are weak, which is China pursuing zero-Covid strategy,” Kieran Calder, head of Asia Equity Research at Union Bancaire Privee, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. “The reality of Covid-19 versus the response in China, the mismatch is too strong right now and I think that’s the biggest worry for us.”  For the quarter, Asian stocks were poised for nearly a 7% loss, the worst performance since early 2020 when the emergence of the pandemic shocked investors. Investors had to grapple with a U.S. rate hike, a war in Ukraine and continued regulatory risks out of China, which caused huge volatility

Japanese equities fell for a second day following a rally in the yen. Electronics makers and banks were the biggest drags on the Topix, which fell 1.1%. Recruit and SoftBank were the largest contributors to a 0.7% loss in the Nikkei 225. The yen was little changed after gaining 1.6% against the dollar over the previous two sessions. Both key gauges still capped their first monthly gains of the year. The Nikkei 225 rose 4.9% in March, the most since November 2020, while the Topix climbed 3.2% on the month.

India’s benchmark equity index clocked its best monthly advance since August, as buying by local funds amid war-induced volatility supported sentiment. The S&P BSE Sensex fell 0.2% to 58,568.51 in Mumbai, trimming its gain for March to 4.1%. The NSE Nifty 50 Index also slipped 0.2% on Thursday. Stocks swung between gains and losses several times during the day ahead of the expiry of monthly derivative contracts Thursday. Institutional investors in India have bought $5 billion worth of shares this month, while foreign investors are set to extend their selling to a sixth consecutive month. Reliance Industries Ltd. was the biggest drag on the 30-share Sensex, which saw an equal number of shares closing up and down. Twelve of the 19 sectoral indexes compiled by BSE Ltd. gained, led by a gauge of telecom stocks. S&P BSE Healthcare Index was the worst performing sub-index.   “Markets took a breather on a monthly expiry day and ended the last day of the financial year on a flat note,” said Ajit Mishra, vice president of research at Religare Broking Ltd. “We reiterate our positive yet cautious stance citing lingering geopolitical tension between Russia-Ukraine and its impact on the global markets.”

In rates, Treasuries extended this week’s rally with yields richer by up to 5bp across belly of the curve, which continues to outperform vs wings. Wider bull-steepening move grips bunds and gilts, as central-bank rate-hike premium is pared. Oil futures are sharply lower, weighing on energy stocks, following reports that Biden is considering a massive release of crude from U.S. reserves to fight inflation. The 10-year yield was around 2.31%, richer by ~4bp vs Wednesday’s close, underperforming bunds in the sector by ~4bp while keeping pace with gilts. Long-end swap spreads are sharply tighter, with 30- year dropping as low as -19.5bp.

Euro-area, bonds extended their advance as money markets pare central bank tightening wagers. French bonds underperformed bunds as EU-harmonized CPI rose 5.1% from a year ago in March -- the most since the data series began in 1997 -- and above the 4.9% median estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists.  The belly of the German curve richened 6-7bps, leading gains. Peripheral spreads are mixed: Italy tightens, Portugal and Spain widen to core. Money markets trim rate hike pricing.

Japanese government bonds extended their advance as the central bank’s aggressive bond purchases this week reassured players that an excessive rise in yields won’t be tolerated. Yen was little changed in choppy trade. Bank of Japan’s offer to buy an unlimited amount of 10-year government bonds at fixed yields recorded no takeup, the central bank said.

In FX, Bloomberg dollar spot index snapped two days of losses after rebounding in early European session; the dollar advanced versus all of its Group-of-10 peers and commodity currencies were the worst performers. The euro gave up earlier gains after earlier touching a four-week high versus the greenback. Norway’s krone slumped by as much as 1.6% versus the greenback after the central bank announced a ramp-up of FX purchases on behalf of the government. The pound declined for a third day against the euro, touching its weakest level versus the common currency since Dec. 23. A report from the British Retail Consortium gave another glimpse into the cost-of-living crisis, showing prices in U.K. shops rose in March at the fastest annual pace since September 2011. Japan’s factory output eked out its first gain in three months in February, offering only a tepid sign of resilience amid fears the economy has slipped back into reverse. Production inched up 0.1% from the previous month. The Australian dollar declined against most of its Group-of-10 peers as oil prices tumbled on news that the Biden administration is weighing a massive release of crude from U.S. reserves. Sales of Aussie back into euro have seen option-related Australian dollar bids attached to large option strikes get filled, according to Asia-based currency traders

In commodities, crude futures hold Asia’s losses triggered by reports that the White House may make an announcement on the U.S. oil reserve release as soon as Thursday. WTI drops over $6.50 near $101.10. European natural gas faded an initial drop after Germany signaled Russia is softening its demand for ruble payments. Precious metals and much of the base metals complex traded heavy.

Looking to the day ahead now, data releases include German retail sales for February and unemployment for March, French and Italian CPI for March, and the Euro Area unemployment rate for February. From the US, there’s also February’s personal income and personal spending, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the MNI Chicago PMI for March. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, Chief Economist Lane, and New York Fed President Williams.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.1% to 4,601.75
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 0.2% to 459.49
  • MXAP down 0.7% to 180.37
  • MXAPJ down 0.6% to 591.98
  • Nikkei down 0.7% to 27,821.43
  • Topix down 1.1% to 1,946.40
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.1% to 21,996.85
  • Shanghai Composite down 0.4% to 3,252.20
  • Sensex down 0.2% to 58,590.32
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.2% to 7,499.59
  • Kospi up 0.4% to 2,757.65
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.62%
  • Euro down 0.3% to $1.1130
  • Brent Futures down 3.6% to $109.40/bbl
  • Gold spot down 0.4% to $1,924.94
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.24% to 98.03

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • The Biden administration is weighing a plan to release roughly a million barrels of oil a day from U.S. reserves, for several months, to combat rising gasoline prices and supply shortages following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to people familiar with the matter
  • Bank of Japan Governor Haruhiko Kuroda is determined to stick with targeting long-term bond yields near zero, even as it leaves him increasingly at variance with global peers and propels a depreciating exchange rate
  • The yen has taken a beating in recent weeks but technicals suggest that it may be on the road to a recovery. Japan’s currency may rebound to 116 per dollar in the coming months after sliding as low as 125.09 on Monday, the weakest in almost seven years, an analysis by Bloomberg shows
  • Russian President Vladimir Putin said that European buyers could continue making gas payments in euros, according to a German readout of a call he had with Chancellor Olaf Scholz
  • Russian government bondholders would be left with no viable path to recover their money if the country defaults, according to one of the top global lawyers in sovereign debt litigation
  • Hungary kept its key interest rate unchanged after the forint staged the second-biggest emerging-market currency rally this week, relieving pressure on policy makers to deliver more monetary tightening
  • China’s cabinet vowed to stabilize the economy and called on officials to avoid measures that harm market expectations as the government struggles to control Covid outbreaks across the country including in the financial center of Shanghai
  • For the first time in more than a decade, China’s yield advantage over Treasuries may be erased. The yield spread between the benchmark bonds of the world’s two biggest debt markets has narrowed to around 40 basis points from 150 a year ago, well below the People’s Bank of China’s “comfortable” range
  • Australia will invest more to find new buyers for its exports in an effort to ease trade dependence on China, its treasurer said, in the face of “economic coercion” from Beijing that shows little sign of abating

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

Asia=Pac stocks traded cautiously at month-end following the weak lead from the US due to increased Russia-Ukraine scepticism and as the region digested disappointing Chinese PMI data. ASX 200 was kept afloat by outperformance in the mining and materials industries although upside was capped as the tech sector suffered from profit-taking and with energy hit by a drop in oil prices. Nikkei 225 traded indecisively amid a choppy currency and after Industrial Production data missed forecasts. Hang Seng and were subdued following the weak Chinese PMI data and with the mood inShanghai Comp. stocks not helped by the US SEC chief casting doubt regarding an imminent deal to avert a delisting of Chinese stocks.

Top Asian News

  • Thirteen-Hour Power Cuts Get Sri Lanka to Shorten Stock Trading
  • Effissimo Would Tender Toshiba Shares in Event of Bain Bid
  • BOJ Looks Ready for a Victory Lap With Yields on the Retreat
  • BOJ Boosts Bond Buying in April-to-June Quarter

European equities (Eurostoxx 50 -0.3%) kicked the final trading session of the month off on the front foot before drifting towards the unchanged mark. Sectors in Europe exhibit a mostly positive tilt with airline names cheering the declines in the energy space as the Energy sector suffers. The biggest laggard in the region is the retail section following a disappointing Q1 update from H&M (-8%). Futures in the US are modestly firmer as the NQ (+0.5%) marginally outpaces the ES (+0.1%) with inflation set to continue to remain in focus today, with the release of US PCE metrics for March; core PCE is seen rising to 5.5% Y/Y

Top European News

  • Iron Ore Futures Advance as Outlook for Demand Brightens
  • Sorrell’s S4 Capital Audit Delay No Longer Down to Covid
  • EU Commission Confirms Raids in Germany’s Natural Gas Sector
  • Pearson Shares Rebound; Barclays Sees a ‘Resilient Business’

In FX, Dollar finds its feet as month, quarter and fiscal year end approach, albeit with a helping hand from others - DXY back on the 98.000 handle, narrowly. Commodity currencies reverse course alongside underlying prices, with crude crushed on reports of US SPR and IEA opening reserve taps - Usd-Cad rebounds through 1.2500 after sliding to new y-t-d low sub-1.2450 only yesterday. Yen choppy amidst residual repatriation flows and more BoJ action to cap JGB yields - Usd/Jpy circa 122.00 within a 122.45-121.35 range. Euro fades into 1.1200 vs Buck again as option expiries and tech resistance impinge, but Aussie  may derive traction from expiry interest at 0.7500 - EURUSD now eyeing support at 1.1100 after tripping stops.

In commodities, WTI and Brent remain firmly on the backfoot in the wake of reports suggesting that the Biden administration is considering a 'massive' SPR release.

  • The news has sent May’22 WTI and Jun’22 Brent to respective lows of USD 100.53/bbl and USD 107.39/bbl to leave them a few dollars above their weekly lows of USD 98.44/bbl and USD 102.19/bbl respectively.
  • US President Biden's administration is considering a 'massive' release of oil to combat inflation and may release up to 1mln bpd for months from the strategic reserve in which the total release could be 180mln , according to Bloomberg.bbls
  • Goldman Sachs says a potentially large SPR release would ease the situation but wouldn't resolve the structural deficit in the oil market. Says adjustments for SPR release, Iran supply delays would lower H2 22 Brent forecast by USD 15, to USD 120/bbl - still above market forwards.
  • US President Biden will deliver remarks today at 13:30EDT/18:30BST regarding the administration's actions to reduce gas prices in the US, according to the White House. It was also reported that the US mulls permitting, according to Reuters sources.summertime sales of higher ethanol blends of gasoline to ease pump prices
  • IEA called an emergency ministerial meeting for Friday, according to the Australian Energy Minister's office. It was later reported that , according to New Zealand'sIEA countries are to decide on a collective oil release Energy Minister's office
  • OPEC+ JTC replaced IEA reports with Wood Mackenzie and Rystad Energy as secondary sources to assess crude oil output and conformity, according to sources cited by Reuters.

In fixed income, bonds on track to see out extremely bearish month, quarter and end to FY on a firmer note. Curves more even after wild swings between flattening, inversion and steepening.BoJ ramps efforts to maintain YCC via a mostly larger JGB buying remit for Q2.

US Event Calendar

  • 08:30: March Initial Jobless Claims, est. 196,000, prior 187,000
  • 08:30: Feb. Personal Income, est. 0.5%, prior 0%
  • 08:30: Feb. Personal Spending, est. 0.5%, prior 2.1%; Real Personal Spending, est. -0.2%, prior 1.5%
  • 08:30: Feb. PCE Deflator MoM, est. 0.6%, prior 0.6%; PCE Deflator YoY, est. 6.4%, prior 6.1%
  • 08:30: Feb. PCE Core Deflator MoM, est. 0.4%, prior 0.5%; YoY, est. 5.5%, prior 5.2%
  • 09:45: March MNI Chicago PMI, est. 57.0, prior 56.3

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

After a great deal of optimism in markets on Tuesday following the Russia-Ukraine negotiations in Turkey, the last 24 hours have proven to be much more negative as investor hopes for a de-escalation in Ukraine were dampened by more gloomy comments on the war from both sides. From Russia, the Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that they hadn’t seen a breakthrough in the talks, whilst Ukrainian President Zelensky said that “Russia is deploying new forces on our terrain to try to continue destroying us”, and NATO leaders continued to strike a sceptical tone. Indeed, it was reported by Dow Jones that the European Commission was considering new sanctions against additional Russian banks, and UK Prime Minister Johnson said that the UK was “looking at going up a gear” in its support to Ukraine. President Biden expressed similar sentiments, pledging $500 million of additional aid to Ukraine in a call with President Zelensky.

Against this backdrop, oil prices rose again for the first time this week, with Brent Crude up +2.92% to $113.45/bbl, but there’s been a sharp turnaround overnight on the back of news that the US are planning a major release from their reserves, with Bloomberg reporting it would be a million barrels a day over several months. Biden is due to speak about efforts to lower prices at 1:30pm Eastern, so all eyes will be on that, and overnight we’ve seen Brent Crude prices come down by -4.54% to $108.30/bbl, more than reversing their gains from the previous session. However, European natural gas (+9.77%) rose for a third consecutive session to €118.97/MWh, which is its highest closing level in nearly 3 weeks. That occurred amidst a continued dispute about Russian gas payments, which President Putin wants paid for in rubles, but which multiple European countries have rejected as a breach of contract. In response, Germany’s economy minister Robert Habeck activated the “early warning phase” of an emergency law, which could eventually lead to gas rationing if supplies fall short.

With Russia’s invasion having lasted for over 5 weeks now, we’re increasingly seeing the impact reflected in the official inflation numbers, and yesterday’s releases out of Europe gave fresh life to the bond selloff. In terms of the numbers, German inflation rose to +7.6% in March on the EU-harmonised measure, which was up from +5.5% back in February and some way above the +6.8% reading expected by the consensus. It was the same story in Spain, where inflation rose to +9.8% (up from +7.6% in February), which will heighten interest in tomorrow’s flash release for the entire Euro Area. In turn, that’s led to growing expectations of ECB rate hikes this year, with a total of 63bps being priced in by the December meeting, which is the most we’ve seen to date. On top of that, more than 30bps are even being priced in by the September meeting, which surpasses their pre-invasion peak.

Given the strong inflation numbers and the prospect of a more aggressive ECB, European bonds sold off across most of the continent, with yields on 10yr bunds (+1.3bps), OATs (+2.3bps) and BTPs (+1.3bps) all hitting fresh multi-year highs. Furthermore, the 2yr German yield (+5.6bps) closed in positive territory for the first time since 2014, having briefly got there on an intraday basis during the previous session. Unsurprisingly, the latest rise in yields was driven by higher inflation breakevens rather than real rates, and the 10yr German breakeven surged another +6.0bps to 2.71%, its highest level in data available back to 2009, whilst the Italian breakeven rose +4.0bps to 2.53%, its highest level since 2008.

Even as European bonds were selling off once again, it was the reverse story in the United States, where Treasuries recovered somewhat yesterday as we come to the end of one of their worst quarterly performances in decades. Yields on 10yr Treasuries fell -4.6bps to 2.35%, whilst yield curves remained incredibly flat; the 2s10s curve steepened marginally by +1.3bps to 3.6bps, avoiding another inversion, and this morning is up another +0.3bps to 3.9bps.

In terms of other developments this morning, Asian equity markets have followed Wall Street’s lead overnight with the Nikkei (-0.18%), Hang Seng (-0.59%), Shanghai Composite (-0.14%), CSI (-0.26%) all losing ground, though the Kospi (+0.54%) is the exception to this pattern. The weakness in Asian gauges has come amidst declines in the PMI data, with China’s manufacturing PMI down to 49.5, and the non-manufacturing PMI down to 48.4. For reference, that’s the first time that both readings have been below the 50-mark that separates expansion from contraction since February 2020, and comes as multiple cities are undergoing further lockdowns in response to the current Covid outbreak. Additionally, a slide in Chinese tech stocks is weighing on sentiment after the US Securities and Exchange Commission added Hong Kong listed Baidu Inc. to its long list of companies potentially facing delisting from US exchanges. Outside of Asia, stock futures in the US and Europe are pointing to a more positive start, with contracts on the S&P 500 (+0.28%), Nasdaq (+0.56%) and DAX (+0.59%) all trading higher.

Those equity declines overnight in Asia follow a broader decline in risk appetite yesterday given the more negative geopolitical developments, and both the S&P 500 (-0.63%) and Europe’s STOXX 600 (-0.41%) unwound some of their gains from the previous day. More cyclical industries underperformed in general, whilst the German DAX (-1.45%) also put in a weaker performance relative to the other main European indices. The VIX Index of volatility (+0.43pts) also ticked up to 19.33pts, after closing at to its lowest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine on Tuesday.

In France, we’re now just 10 days away from the first round of the presidential election, and there are continued signs of a narrowing in the polls, albeit with President Macron still in the lead. In terms of yesterday’s polls (from Opinionway, Harris, Ipsos, Ifop and Elabe), all of them pointed to a repeat of the second-round contest from 2017, with the first-round polling putting President Macron in first place followed by Marine Le Pen in second. That said, they’re also implying a noticeably tighter result in the second round than Macron’s 66%-34% victory against Le Pen in 2017. Looking through the numbers, the second round estimates ranged from a 55%-45% Macron victory (from Opinionway and Ipsos), to a 52.5%-47.5% Macron victory (from Elabe).

Finally on yesterday’s other data, the ADP’s report of private payrolls from the US showed growth of +455k in March (vs. +450k expected). That comes ahead of tomorrow’s jobs report, where our US economists are expecting nonfarm payrolls to have grown by +400k, with the unemployment rate ticking down to a post-pandemic low of 3.7%.

To the day ahead now, and data releases include German retail sales for February and unemployment for March, French and Italian CPI for March, and the Euro Area unemployment rate for February. From the US, there’s also February’s personal income and personal spending, the weekly initial jobless claims, and the MNI Chicago PMI for March. Otherwise, central bank speakers include ECB Vice President de Guindos, Chief Economist Lane, and New York Fed President Williams.

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/31/2022 - 07:56
Published:3/31/2022 7:01:23 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls To Session Lows, But Walmart, UNH Stock Show Strength; Micron Reverses Lower After Early Pop The Dow Jones took a step back Wednesday after four straight gains, but UNH stock and WMT stock were bright spots. Published:3/30/2022 2:55:40 PM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks rally pauses, bond markets ponder risks for U.S. economy The U.S. and European equities rally paused on Wednesday as investors took stock of economic and geopolitical risks, while oil prices jumped back around $4 on the prospect of more Russian sanctions. The broad Euro STOXX 600 fell 0.6% after three positive sessions that had taken the index back to levels reached before Russia invaded Ukraine. By late morning, the Dow Jones Industrial Average had lost 0.18%, to 35,229.04, the S&P 500 was down 0.25%, and the Nasdaq Composite was little changed. Published:3/30/2022 10:24:16 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips Amid Strong Market Rally; Apple, SolarEdge, Micron In Focus Futures signaled a lower open for the Dow Jones today, but the market rally is strong. Apple and Dutch Bros are in buy zones. Published:3/30/2022 9:53:48 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Firms Amid Strong Market Rally; Apple, SolarEdge, Micron In Focus Futures signaled a lower open for the Dow Jones today, but the market rally is strong. Apple and Dutch Bros are in buy zones. Published:3/30/2022 9:23:17 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Today Falls Amid Strong Market Rally; Apple, SolarEdge, Micron In Focus Futures signaled a lower open for the Dow Jones today, but the market rally is strong. Apple and Dutch Bros are in buy zones. Published:3/30/2022 8:53:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Today Fall Amid Strong Market Rally; Apple, SolarEdge, Micron In Focus Futures signaled a lower open for the Dow Jones today, but the market rally is strong. Apple and Dutch Bros are in buy zones. Published:3/30/2022 7:55:05 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Closes Higher; Nasdaq Rallies While Apple Scores Breakout Dow Jones stock Apple closed 1.9% higher while shares scored a breakout from a base. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq led the upside. Published:3/29/2022 3:57:00 PM
[Markets] Stocks open with strong gains on optimism over Russia-Ukraine talks Stocks opened solidly higher Tuesday, finding support after Russian officials made positive remarks following the resumption of negotiations with their Ukraine counterparts in Turkey. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was up 395 points, or 1.1%, near 34,350, while the S&P 500 advanced 1% to 4,622. The Nasdaq Composite was up 1.4% near 14,553. Published:3/29/2022 8:44:33 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rally As Russia, Ukraine Hold Cease-Fire Talks; Apple, Tesla Eye Buy Points Dow Jones futures rallied Tuesday as Russia and Ukraine hold cease-fire talks. Tesla stock is nearing a buy point. Published:3/29/2022 6:13:03 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Russia-Ukraine Cease-Fire Talks On Deck; Apple, Tesla Eye New Buy Points Dow Jones futures were little changed Monday ahead of key Russia-Ukraine cease-fire talks Tuesday. Tesla stock is nearing a new buy point. Published:3/28/2022 7:42:37 PM
[Markets] Will Tesla Finally Put an Auto Stock Back in the Dow? The stock market is nothing if not tenacious. After having fallen sharply early in 2022, stock markets have powered back, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI), Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC), and S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) have reached their best levels in roughly six weeks. The Dow Jones Industrials have traditionally included some of the giants of American industry, and for much of their early history, the average lived up to its name by focusing largely on industrial and manufacturing giants. Published:3/28/2022 5:38:08 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips 200 Points, But Walmart, Microsoft Rise; Apple Stock Probes New Buy Point, Bitcoin Jumps 6% The Dow Jones was under modest selling pressure Monday afternoon, but Walmart and Microsoft bucked the trend. Published:3/28/2022 1:07:26 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall As Tesla Surges On Stock Split Plan; Bitcoin Jumps Above $47,000 Dow Jones futures fell Monday, as Tesla stock surged on a stock split plan. The price of Bitcoin jumped over the weekend, topping $47,000. Published:3/28/2022 8:34:54 AM
[Markets] "The Morgan Stanley Fade" - Clients Who Felt Cheated By Bank's Block Trading Business Seize Opportunity For Revenge "The Morgan Stanley Fade" - Clients Who Felt Cheated By Bank's Block Trading Business Seize Opportunity For Revenge

As the SEC sharpens its knives for the slaughter of Morgan Stanley's lucrative block-trading business, the bank is finding - much, we imagine, to its deep chagrin - that many of its colleagues and counterparties are aiding in the investigation, even regaling regulators with a flurry of "I told you so's".

We have already seen several of Morgan Stanley's counterparty/rivals snitch on the company by helping the Feds to build their case. But as it turns out, these acts of vengeance aren't limited to just Credit Suisse, which lost billions of dollars thanks to Morgan's decision to break ranks during the Archegos collapse (we were among the first to highlight those block trades back in March of last year).

Many of the biggest buy-side firms have long kvetched about Morgan Stanley's block-trading business. Many eyed the bank's ability to quickly unload large block's of (heavily discounted) shares, suspicious of what they believed might be the bank's skilled front-running by lining up buyers ahead of time, before an order to sell has even been placed.

Now, according to Bloomberg, as the federal block-trading probe advances with Morgan Stanley as its primary target, bankers are reportedly joking among themselves about the "Morgan Stanley fade" - a practice that results from the bank leaking news of potential sales before they happen, allowing other firms to front-run the trade accordingly, ultimately moving the market to the banker's advantage.

The group of malcontents includes some of the biggest PE firms in the country, including Blackstone, KKR and Carlyle Group.

Yet now, all across Wall Street the knives are out for Morgan Stanley. Since word emerged last month that the equities powerhouse is being examined as part of U.S. probes into whether banks tipped off hedge funds to stock sales big enough to move markets, the industry has been buzzing about the "Morgan Stanley fade."

Competitors, who couldn’t figure out how Morgan Stanley was bidding for block trades at such tight discounts, are now swapping "I told you so’s." Authorities examining Morgan Stanley’s business haven’t accused it of wrongdoing.

But before the investigation was made public, MS and many of its rivals saw nothing wrong with this type of behavior. Senior bankers are constantly pitching deals, and so offering select clients a tasty 'hint' about a potential block sale didn't seem like the illegal sharing of material non-public information, but rather a necessary aspect of marketing potential deals. All of thi

Unfortunately for them, the boundaries of what's deemed acceptable are changing rapidly.

Yet now, all across Wall Street the knives are out for Morgan Stanley. Since word emerged last month that the equities powerhouse is being examined as part of U.S. probes into whether banks tipped off hedge funds to stock sales big enough to move markets, the industry has been buzzing about the "Morgan Stanley fade."

Competitors, who couldn’t figure out how Morgan Stanley was bidding for block trades at such tight discounts, are now swapping “I told you so’s.” Authorities examining Morgan Stanley’s business haven’t accused it of wrongdoing.

Firms like KKR have even adopted strategies to guard against the Morgan "fade" - including working with a single broker to try and minimize the odds of unfavorable leaks allowing rivals to front-run the trade.

One longtime PE executive, speaking with Bloomberg, said he felt helpless to combat a trend, which he noticed over time, of prices moving unfavorably against him just before block trades were executed. However, given Morgan Stanley's massive clout in the market, he worried that the bank would punish him for speaking out.

Another executive pointed to one particularly messy block trade as an example of the bank's uncanny ability to will prices to move in their favor just as trades were about to be executed.

Some market participants point to a particularly messy block trade on Monday Aug. 9, when a group of investors tapped Morgan Stanley to unload shares of ZoomInfo Technologies Inc. The group had selected Morgan Stanley for another ZoomInfo trade days earlier with satisfactory results.

The Friday before the second sale, the stock sank 3.1%, the third-worst performance in the Dow Jones Internet Service Index. Then early on Monday morning, the shares tumbled another 3.2% before the offering was announced.

Banks are supposed to handle block trades discreetly so that prices don’t fall. The reality, according to market participants, is that declines can happen, potentially because of the way banks track interest among prospective buyers.

The SEC initially launched its block-trading probe in 2018, and the DoJ later joined in after the disastrous collapse of Archegos Capital Management, which involved several massive block trades that hammered valuations in the firm's portfolio stocks as a group of Wall Street brokers - led by Goldman and Morgan Stanley - aggressively offloaded the shares. MS and Goldman avoided major losses on their positions in the Archegos portfolio stocks (which Archegos had bet on via what's known as a total return swap, leaving the prime brokers in possession of the shares, and thus on the hook for losses in the event of a blowup) by reportedly breaking an agreement on a half dozen prime brokers to try and manage the sales of Archegos's portfolio. But their decision to break ranks had devastating consequences for their far-slower rivals, as banks like Nomura and Credit Suisse were ultimately saddled with billions in losses.

Like the old saying goes, "revenge is a dish best served cold". Now, after years of biding their time, Morgan's clients and counterparties are seizing the opportunity for some good ol' fashioned payback.

Tyler Durden Sun, 03/27/2022 - 19:10
Published:3/27/2022 6:33:55 PM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Wall Street pauses stock comeback, keeps Treasury yields climbing Shares on Wall Street took a breather on Friday after a tech-driven rally and U.S. Treasury yields rose to fresh heights as markets evaluated a world of elevated interest rates and the effects of Russia's war in Ukraine. The Nasdaq fell about 0.16% as technology and healthcare stocks pulled back, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 edged up about 0.5%, with energy and financial shares rising on oil price gains and bets on interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Share prices have been supported by global flash Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) data for March this week showing the world economy was broadly resilient, but the longer-term economic outlook is making investors cautious. Published:3/25/2022 3:41:01 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As Microsoft Stumbles; Tesla Stock Steady As Rival Dives; 3 Stocks Test Buy Points The Dow Jones fought back even as Microsoft stock stumbled amid tech weakness. Tesla stock was holding firm even as Nio plunged. Published:3/25/2022 2:41:00 PM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Wall Street stocks pause as Treasury yields hit new highs Shares on Wall Street took a breather on Friday after a tech-driven rally and U.S. Treasury yields rose to fresh heights as markets evaluated a world of elevated interest rates and effects of Russia's war in Ukraine. The Nasdaq fell about 0.35% as a rally in technology stocks lost steam, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average and S&P 500 inched up about 0.25%, with financial shares rising on growing bets of bigger interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve. Published:3/25/2022 1:42:07 PM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Wall Street steadies as market focuses on rate outlook, Ukraine Shares on Wall Street steadied on Friday after a tech-driven rally and U.S. Treasury yields rose as markets evaluated the possibility of bigger U.S. interest rates in store and the impact of Russia’s war in Ukraine. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500 were both up around just 0.2% in early trading Friday, while the Nasdaq Composite was virtually flat. Published:3/25/2022 9:39:27 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise As Apple Nears Buy Point; Tesla Rival Nio Skids On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Friday, as Apple stock neared a buy point. Tesla rival Nio skidded on earnings results. Published:3/25/2022 7:10:48 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Market Rally Rebounds As Nvidia, AMD Lead Chip Surge; Nio Earnings Due Dow Jones futures were little changed, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally bounced back Thursday from the prior day's retreat. Nvidia and Advanced Micro Devices were big winners on a strong day for semiconductors. Published:3/24/2022 5:32:54 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rebound From Wednesday's Losses; 5 Top Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures rallied Thursday morning, looking to rebound from Wednesday's sharp losses. Treasury yields continued higher. Published:3/24/2022 7:30:20 AM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Wall Street pushes Treasury yields, stocks higher U.S. stocks regained ground on Tuesday, while Treasury yields climbed and oil dipped, as investors adjusted their expectations for rate hikes following hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 219.79 points, or 0.64%, to 34,772.78, the S&P 500 gained 45.91 points, or around 1%, to 4,507.09 and the Nasdaq Composite added 261.90 points, or 1.89%, to 14,100.36. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday the central bank could move "more aggressively" to raise rates to fight inflation, possibly by more than 25 basis points (bps) at once. Published:3/22/2022 10:46:55 AM
[Markets] GLOBAL MARKETS-Wall Street pushes Treasury yields, stocks higher U.S. stocks regained ground on Tuesday, while Treasury yields climbed higher and oil dipped, as investors adjusted their expectations for rate hikes following hawkish comments from the U.S. Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 281.07 points, or 0.81%, to 34,834.06; the S&P 500 gained 27.59 points, or 0.62%, to 4,488.77; and the Nasdaq Composite added 87.88 points, or 0.64%, to 13,926.34. Fed Chair Jerome Powell said on Monday the central bank could move "more aggressively" to raise rates to fight inflation, possibly by more than 25 basis points (bps) at once. Published:3/22/2022 9:15:23 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Stock Market Falls On Powell Comments; 6 Top Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures were little changed after Monday's stock market fall. Fed Chief Powell said again that inflation is way too high. Published:3/21/2022 8:39:18 PM
[Markets] How Long Do Stock Market Corrections Last? It's been an ugly start to the new year for Wall Street and investors. Following what's effectively been the strongest bounce from a bear market bottom in history, all three major U.S. indexes have entered correction territory. Earlier in the week, the iconic Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) and benchmark S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) were more than 10% below their all-time closing highs. Published:3/20/2022 6:30:36 AM
[Markets] U.S. stocks end higher Friday, with indexes sweeping to best weekly gains since Nov. 2020 U.S. stocks finished higher on Friday, with all three U.S. indexes sweeping to big weekly gains, after the Federal Reserve raised its benchmark rate for the first time since 2018 to help tighten financial conditions and tackle high inflation. The Fed move was widely expected, helping to embolden bullishness on Wall Street. S&P 500 rose about 51 points, or 1.2%, on Friday, booking at 6.2% weekly advance. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 0.8% Friday, but 5.5% for the week, while the Nasdaq Co Published:3/18/2022 3:38:08 PM
[Markets] US STOCKS-Wall St set to dip as three-day rally cools Wall Street's main indexes were set to open lower on Friday at the end of a choppy week marked by little progress in peace talks to end the war in Ukraine and the first U.S. interest rate hike since 2018. The broad declines could snap a three-day rally that has put the S&P 500 index and the Dow Jones Industrial Average on track for their best week since November 2020. "The fact that we've had three very strong up days in a row... it's very common to see things moving in you know and pull back just a little bit," Randy Frederick, vice president of trading and derivatives for Charles Schwab in Austin, Texas. Published:3/18/2022 8:33:38 AM
[Markets] 3.5 Trillion Reasons To Brace For Tomorrow's Massive Quad-Witching Expiration 3.5 Trillion Reasons To Brace For Tomorrow's Massive Quad-Witching Expiration

As Goldman's head of FX sales Tony Pasquariello wrote last Friday, "next week is a huge one, featuring the FOMC on Wednesday and a major derivatives expiry on Friday." And indeed, now that the Fed's rate hike is officially a fact and in the rearview mirror, Wall Street traders are bracing for the week's final fireworks.

In the quarterly event known as "quad witching" (technically, it's been "triple" since the close of OneChicago in September 2020, when single stock futures ceased trading, but for veteran traders it will always be quad), over $3.5 trillion of Index Options, Index Futures and Single Stock Options expire, either at the open of trade or at the close.

Adding to the frenzy, at the same time more near-the-money options are maturing than at any time since 2019 meaning that highly caffeinated traders will actively be trading around those positions as they seek to capitalize on any drift away "pins" (we will have a full list of the stocks most likely to see significant volatility tomorrow morning).

Furthermore, according to Goldman's Rocky Fishman, investors will also be watching the ETN market given the substantial size of expiring VXX. As a reminder, the VXX - the single largest volatility-tracking ETN - has been trading at a 12% premium to its NAV since its issuer suspended creations...

... and should the VXX rally strongly from its current level, its in-the-money call options would be large relative to shares outstanding.

Tomorrow's quad witching also coincides with a rebalancing of benchmark indexes including the S&P 500, a two-for-one special that leads to soaring trading volumes that rank among the highest of the year. According to an estimate from Howard Silverblatt, senior index analyst at S&P Dow Jones Indices, the rebalance in the index alone could spur $33 billion of stock trades.

Traditionally, over the past year, "quad witches" have seen poor market returns, however heading into tomorrow's option expiration, the S&P is posting the best 3-day return since the Dec 2020 election.

So is the party about to end? As many contracts expire, Bloomberg notes that the key question is whether investors will rebuild their record holdings of index puts amid growth concerns and the war in Ukraine -- or will they come out of their shells, and chase the market rebound with call contracts, creating a negative gamma meltup at a time when most dealers are still short gamma.

Or will stocks tumble as trading desks such as JPMorgan "sell the rally" to naive investors who listen to the bank's latest call to buy the dip.

But while retail investors are confident they know how to trade tomorrow's chaos, veteran traders are ducking for cover: “I’ve never seen an environment where you’ve had so many potential overhangs in the market that can not be controlled,” said David Wagner, a portfolio manager at Aptus Capital Advisors. “We’ll see if people can see to redeploy their puts.”

If not, we may get an extension of the meltup as an avalanche of put closing sparks a delta cascade: exploding derivatives volume has been a fixture of the post-pandemic market -- whipsawing underlying stocks in both directions, again and again. To strategists including Nomura's Charlie McElligott, this week’s advance in the S&P 500 has again been amplified by the hedging activity of market-makers. And should we get another gamma squeeze, the S&P may soar.

On the other hand, many of the usual catalysts for a melt up are missing: thanks to the recent surge in stocks, dealers are now flat gamma, meaning they no longer have to accentuate market trends..

Meanwhile, thanks to the recent 3-day meltup, the negative delta has also been unwound faster than anticipated. Notably, as SpotGamma explains, yesterday saw a total lack of positive call deltas in the SPY & QQQ. You can see below that SPY traders were fairly heavy call sellers into the AM short-stock cover, and then after 1PM ET and through the FOMC flow was neutral. The QQQ chart was similar.

Commenting on the same phenomenon, Nomura's McElligott writes that the “Short Delta” hedge cover on the murdering of downside Puts led to move short-covering of client dynamic hedges in futures too, where for ES, the bank's imbalance monitor showed what was the second largest day of “buy pressure” over the past month for all lot sizes, led by what looked like straight-up VWAP style buying-to-cover (slicing your order in the machine over “small lots”)

Another reason why stocks could defy prevailing sentiment, which as the latest Fear and Greed index describes simply as "fear"...

... is technicals and positioning. As Marko Kolanovic notes, current risk positioning is very light as a result of high and persistent volatility, and risk aversion caused by global geopolitical developments: "the AAII bull-bear indicator at -27 is near its 2020 lows and 2 standard deviations below average. Equity exposure for volatility sensitive investors – the largest and fastest group of investors (including insurance, risk parity, dynamically hedged portfolios, HF platforms, etc.) – is now in its ~5-10th percentile, and for this reason risks are skewed to the upside." Meanwhile, with market sentiment weak and institutional-fund exposure to equities near mutliyear lows, caution in the derivatives market is everywhere. The 20-day average of the Cboe put-call ratio for equities, for example, hovers near a two-year high, which means that once again many are hedged and with little impetus to sell, stocks may simply melt up instead.

For those asking which strikes matter the most now into Op-Ex / and what % of overall gamma is set to expire along with the current and max Gamma sensitivity, here is the answer courtesy of Nomura.

SPX / SPY currently “pinning” btwn 4400 strike ($4.1B $Gamma), 4350 ($2.5B), 4300 ($2.4B); currently see ~43% of the $Gamma dropping-off for Friday’s expiration; currently at “Zero Gamma” level, “Max Short Gamma” at 4125 and -$17B per 1% move

Source: Nomura

QQQ $350 strike ($640mm $Gamma), $345 ($608mm), $340 ($595mm); currently see 56% of the $Gamma dropping-off for Friday’s expiration; currently at “Zero Gamma” level, “Max Short Gamma” at $314 and ~-$1.7B per 1%

Source: Nomura

IWM $200 strike ($471mm $Gamma), $205 ($274mm), $195 ($199mm); currently see 63% of the $Gamma dropping-off for Friday’s expiration; currently a modest “Short Gamma vs Spot” at -$100mm per 1% currently, “Max Short Gamma” at $192 and ~-$600mm per 1%

Source: Nomura

HYG $82 strike ($973mm $Gamma), $81 ($799mm), $80 ($477mm); currently see 58% of the $Gamma dropping-off for Friday’s expiration; currently still very “Short Gamma vs Spot” at -$1.0B per 1% move, “Max Short Gamma” at $79, -$1.2B per 1% move

That is a lot of gamma to 'unclench'.

In any case, amid this cacophony of bullish and bearish catalysts, it is virtually impossible to come up with a coherent case for either sustained market upside or another sharp burst of selling: “We see a general trend of continued risk aversion among investors, and expectations that the stock market remains volatile,” said Steve Sears, president at Options Solutions. “There are so many major events that could change the market’s tempo that hedging and patient fortitude appears to be the message from the options market.”

Tyler Durden Thu, 03/17/2022 - 21:25
Published:3/17/2022 8:29:00 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Drop After Stock Market Surge; 5 Stocks To Buy And Watch Dow Jones futures dropped Thursday following Wednesday's stock market surge. U.S. oil prices jumped back near $100 a barrel. Published:3/17/2022 7:25:49 AM
[Markets] Federal Reserve Meeting: One Rate Hike Down, Six More Coming In 2022; Dow Jones Climbs The Federal Reserve meeting saw the first rate hike since 2018. The Dow Jones regained its footing after the Fed policy news. Published:3/16/2022 3:21:24 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Holds Gain After Fed Decision To Raise Rates; Nasdaq Leads Upside The Dow Jones Industrial Average briefly reversed lower before turning positive again as the stock market reacted to the Fed's decision to raise interest rates for the first time since 2018. The Nasdaq composite and the S&P 500 also traded off session highs but held onto gains. Published:3/16/2022 2:52:04 PM
[Markets] Dow turns negative, Treasury yield curve flattens after Fed delivers quarter-point rate hike Stocks erased or trimmed gains in afternoon trade Wednesday after the Federal Reserve, as expected, delivered a quarter-point rate increase. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 27 points, or 0.1%, near 33,519. The blue-chip gauge was up around 200 points just ahead of the announcement. The S&P 500 was up 0.2% at 4,272, while the Nasdaq Composite remained higher by 0.9%. The yield curve flattened significantly, with the 2-year Treasury yield jumping around 13 basis points on the day to 1.98 Published:3/16/2022 1:19:48 PM
[Markets] 5 Dow Jones Stocks To Watch In March 2022: Apple Jumps The Dow Jones Industrial Average ended February 2022 sharply off its record highs. The best Dow Jones stocks to watch in March 2022 are American Express, Apple, Caterpillar, Chevron and Microsoft. There are clear winners — and losers — toward the end of February. Published:3/16/2022 10:18:43 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Jump On China, And 'More Realistic' Russia-Ukraine Talks Dow Jones futures jumped Wednesday, as Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said peace talks were becoming "more realistic." Published:3/16/2022 8:17:51 AM
[Markets] 3 Worst-Performing Dow Jones Stocks Ready to Bounce Back The Dow Jones Industrial Average now sits about 9.7% below its early January high and remains within easy reach of new multiweek lows. Market veterans know the time to buy quality names is when they're beaten down, even when it's uncomfortable to do so. To this end, three of the Dow Jones' worst performers at the moment should be able to recover the sell-off they've experienced because the markets will soon realize they shouldn't have suffered these drops in the first place. Published:3/16/2022 6:48:02 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Jump: What To Do After Tuesday's Stock Market Surge; Fed Set To Hike Interest Rates Dow Jones futures were higher after Tuesday's stock market surge. The Federal Reserve's interest-rate decision is due out Wednesday. Published:3/16/2022 6:17:26 AM
[Markets] SentinelOne, Smartsheet Fall After Hours Despite Continued Business Growth A crucial meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee began, but the big news was a nearly $8 plunge in oil prices that brought West Texas Intermediate crude down to $95 per barrel. The Nasdaq Composite (NASDAQINDEX: ^IXIC) posted the biggest gains of the day, but the performances from the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) and S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) weren't too shabby, either. Both SentinelOne (NYSE: S) and Smartsheet (NYSE: SMAR) enjoyed solid growth in revenue, but investors were nevertheless dissatisfied with their future outlooks. Published:3/15/2022 6:15:16 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: What To Do After Today's Stock Market Surge; Fed Set To Hike Interest Rates Dow Jones futures were in focus after today's stock market surge. The Federal Reserve's interest rate decision is due out Wednesday. Published:3/15/2022 4:44:35 PM
[Markets] Dow ends nearly 600 points higher as oil retreats below $100 a barrel Stocks ended sharply higher Tuesday as oil prices continued to pull back from 14-year highs. The Dow Jones Industrial Average jumped around 599 points, or 1.8%, to close near 33,544, according to prelminary figures, while the S&P 500 advanced around 89 points, or 2.1%, finishing near 4,262. the Nasdaq Composite rose around 367 points, or 2.9%, to end near 12,948.62. Crude prices, which saw the U.S. benchmark soar to a 14-year high near $130 a barrel last week as investors reacted to Russia's inv Published:3/15/2022 3:12:50 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Fed Meeting; Tesla Raises Car Prices Dow Jones futures rose Tuesday ahead of the Federal Reserve's two-day meeting. Tesla stock was in focus after the company raised car prices. Published:3/15/2022 7:41:08 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dips Amid Another Tech Sell-Off; Surging 10-Year Yield Lifts These Financial Stocks The Dow Jones held up relatively well Monday, helped by a strong showing from American Express, but the Nasdaq lagged badly again. Published:3/14/2022 1:36:47 PM
[Markets] Dow, S&P 500 rallies belie negative market breadth The Big 3 stock market indexes are enjoying strong rallies in morning trading Monday, but the market of stocks is actually suggesting broader weakness. The number of stock declining outnumbered advancers 1,469 to 1,451 on the NYSE and 1,984 to 1,748 on the Nasdaq, while volume in declining stocks represented 58.2% of total volume on the Big Board and 53.0% of total volume on the Nasdaq, according to FactSet data. Meanwhile, the Dow Jones Industrial Average climbed 279 points, or 0.9%, the S&P 50 Published:3/14/2022 9:34:04 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Rallies As Russia-Ukraine Talks Continue; Treasury Yields Surge, Oil Prices Tumble The Dow Jones Industrial Average rallied Monday, as Russia-Ukraine talks continue. The 10-year Treasury yield surged, while oil prices tumbled. Published:3/14/2022 9:03:54 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Climb As Russia-Ukraine Talks Continue; Treasury Yields Surge, Oil Prices Tumble Dow Jones futures rallied Monday, as Russia-Ukraine talks continue. The 10-year Treasury yield surged, while oil prices tumbled. Published:3/14/2022 7:33:52 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Jump On Putin's Ukraine Comments; Rivian Dives On Earnings Dow Jones futures rallied Friday on Russian President Vladimir Putin's Ukraine comments. Rivian stock dived on weak earnings results. Published:3/11/2022 7:14:05 AM
[Markets] Bumble Buzzes, Stitch Fix Gets Stung as Markets Keep Moving Lower Volatility has been an issue on Wall Street for a while, but Tuesday was an extreme example that shows just how confused many investors feel. The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) was up nearly 600 points in the early afternoon after having moved more than 200 points lower near the beginning of the session. Published:3/8/2022 4:55:55 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As Biden Bans Russian Oil; Apple Stock Dips After Product Launch; Solar Stocks Shine The Dow Jones fell after President Joe Biden banned imports of Russian oil. Apple stock dipped while solar stocks shone brightest. Published:3/8/2022 3:53:01 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones, Nasdaq Reverse Higher, Erase Earlier Losses; Steel Stocks Fall While Oil Plays Break Out The Dow Jones reversed higher in afternoon trading while, the Nasdaq composite led the upside and traded over 2% higher. Published:3/8/2022 1:08:35 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Climb As Biden Set To Ban Imports Of Russian Oil Dow Jones futures fell Tuesday after a report that President Biden is set to ban U.S. imports of Russian energy. U.S. oil prices jumped. Published:3/8/2022 8:26:11 AM
[Markets] Futures Rebound On "Massive" EU Bond Stimulus Plan; Nickel Halted After Record Surge, Gold Over $2000 Futures Rebound On "Massive" EU Bond Stimulus Plan; Nickel Halted After Record Surge, Gold Over $2000

Futures rebounded from yesterday huge loss, and after touching a session low of 4,138, S&P futures bounced shortly after the European when Bloomberg reported that the European Union was set to reveal a quasi "Marshall Plan" this week to issue issue "potentially massive” joint bonds to fund energy and defense and help counter the fiscal fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (how Europe will do that at a time when QE is ending and buyers for global debt are shrinking fast amid surging rates remains unclear). S&P 500 futures gained 0.7% following the benchmark index’s biggest loss since October 2020, while Dow futures rose 0.6%.  Contracts on the Nasdaq 100 were up 0.6% at 7:15 a.m. Bonds and the dollar dropped, and the euro strengthened. The commodity melt up continued: nickel was halted on the LME after soaring 250%, oil traded just shy of $130 and gold was above $2000.

The EU's bond-sale proposal may be presented as soon as next week, according to Bloomberg. The extraordinary move comes just a year after the EU launched a 1.8 trillion-euro ($2 trillion) emergency package backed by joint debt to finance member states’ efforts to deal with the pandemic. Now, the bloc faces massive financing needs as it begins to reform its military and energy infrastructure following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.

A new round of stimulus would come as welcome relief for a market whipsawed in recent weeks as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine sent crude-oil and gas prices soaring, raising concerns about inflation and economic growth. Still, details remain sketchy and the plan has not yet been nailed down, keeping investors on edge amid the ongoing war in Ukraine and soaring commodity prices.

“Today’s reaction is perhaps short-term; we need something more solid,” said Jane Foley, head of FX strategy at Rabobank, on Bloomberg television. “The reality is that Europe’s energy security has a massive question mark and there’s a fog, therefore, over the economic outlook for the euro zone.”

U.S. stocks have been roiled this year as the war in Ukraine and resulting sanctions on Russia sent oil soaring at a time when investors were already worried about slowing economic growth. The Federal Reserve’s meeting next week is now in focus, with Chair Jerome Powell indicating interest rates could be hiked by 25 basis points to rein in inflation.

“A wait-and-see stance now prevails as investors cautiously monitor the situation,” said Pierre Veyret, technical analyst at ActivTrades. “All eyes are likely to be on the Fed over the coming days as investors watch how central banks move forward with monetary tightening in such an uncertain environment.”

"We believe it is currently hard for investors to attach high confidence in any individual market outcome materializing and we hold a neutral stance on equities,” Mark Haefele, chief investment officer at UBS Global Wealth Management, wrote in a note. "We like commodities, energy equities and the U.S. dollar as portfolio hedges in the short term.”

Tightening monetary policy to contain inflation presents further challenges. The gap between two-year and 10-year Treasury yields is around the narrowest since March 2020, a sign of expectations of slowing economic expansion. Meanwhile, the average price of gasoline in the U.S. rose to a record.

“It’s all about slowing growth and rising inflation,” Alifia Doriwala, Rock Creek co-chief investment officer, said on Bloomberg Television. “With the sanctions on Russia intensifying, it’s hitting all sectors. Then you are going to have some central bank action amidst uncertain economic growth.”

Mandiant declined in premarket trading, with Piper Sandler saying it is fairly valued after closing 16% higher on Monday following a report in The Information that Google is in talks to acquire the cybersecurity company, which had previously been reported to garner interest from Microsoft. Here are some other notable premarket movers:

  • Meta Platforms (FB US) edged lower in premarket trading; it faces multiple short-term risks and may not return to double-digit growth before 2H22, Arete Research analyst Rocco Strauss writes in a note, slashing price target to a joint Street-low. Piper Sandler also lowers its target on Facebook’s parent.
  • Arena Pharmaceuticals Inc. (ARNA US) shares rose more than 3.5% in premarket trading just days before the expiry on March 9 of the current waiting period for its proposed acquisition by Pfizer Inc. under HSR.
  • ThredUp (TDUP US) shares dropped 11% in extended trading after the online consignment company gave a first- quarter revenue outlook that trailed the average of analysts’ estimates. The company also reported a wider-than-expected fourth-quarter loss.
  • Rover Group (ROVR US) fell 13% postmarket after the pet-sitting platform provided sales forecasts that disappointed. The company anticipates “pandemic dynamics will persist well into 2022.”
  • Shares of 908 Devices (MASS US) jumped 7% in postmarket trading after fourth-quarter revenue topped analyst projections. The quarterly loss per share was narrower than expected.
  • Clarus (CLAR US) shares gained 11% in postmarket trading, after the company’s fourth-quarter revenue and 2022 sales view both beat analysts’ estimates.

In the latest geopolitical developments, Ukraine and Russia said they would make their fourth attempt Tuesday to establish a humanitarian corridor for civilians fleeing areas of heavy fighting. Still, with the VIX trading in the mid-30s, a level traditionally seen as presaging market bottoms (or crashes if the VIX extends gains) investors were bracing for more turbulence. Some more overnight developments courtesy of Newsquawk:

  • Russian forces have held fire within Ukraine, as of 07:00GMT, via Reuters citing Ifx/Defence Ministry; subsequently, Ukrainian Presidential Official says the evacuation of civilians from Sumy and Irpin is underway.
  • Note, Ukrainian forces are stopping civilians from leaving Mariupol and Volnovakha through humanitarian corridors, via AJA Breaking citing Donetsk Separatists
  • Russian President Putin said they will only use professional soldiers in its Ukraine operation and will not use conscript soldiers in Ukraine.
  • EU Commission VP Dombrovskis says that Russia President Putin is likely to increase his military ambitions and challenge NATO in Baltic Sea nations, unless Putin is stopped in Ukraine, via Politico;
  • additionally, Dombrovskis was sceptical about diplomatic overtures towards Putin and maintained that nothing should be off the table re. sanctions.
  • EU is reportedly considering a massive joint bond sale to finance defence and energy, according to Bloomberg citing sources; plan could be announced as early as this week. An announcement which sparked risk-on action, details here
  • EU Commission has prepared a new set of sanctions against Russia and Belarus following the invasion of Ukraine, according to Reuters sources; to be discussed today, blacklisting further oligarchs, providing guidance over monitoring crypto-assets, ban export of maritime tech to Russia.
  • EU will unveil a plan on Tuesday to reduce gas imports from Russia by two-thirds within a year, according to FT.

European equities snapped higher after a soggy start, with the Stoxx Europe 600 index rallying more than 1% before trimming the advance to 0.3% after three days of sharp declines, as the possibility of further central-bank stimulus lifted sentiment. Some of the most-battered sectors, including banks, utilities and carmakers, outperformed, while media and personal care stocks underperformed The Euro Stoxx 50, which yesterday entered a bear market, reversed an initial 1.2% drop to rally as much as 2.8%. FTSE MIB and IBEX outperform, rallying over 2%. Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • M&G shares bounce as much as 15%, the most since November 2020, after the U.K. asset manager and insurer reported a broad-based FY beat, Citi (neutral) writes in a note.
  • IWG shares jump as much as 15%, also the most since November 2020, after Davy said the office space provider’s full-year results were “slightly better” than the broker’s own estimates.
  • Telecom Italia shares rise as much as 12% after an Italian newspaper report that its independent directors may be open to giving KKR access to its data room.
  • European renewables stocks jump after a Bloomberg report that the EU is considering issuing joint bonds on a massive scale to finance energy and defense spending in the wake of the
  • EDF shares, which have lost almost a quarter of their value this year, is one of the biggest gainers on the news, jumping as much as 10% after the report was published.
  • Lindt shares climb as much as 2.3% after the chocolate maker raised mid-term targets in its FY report, with ZKB analyst noting OSG guidance was raised for both 2022 and the medium term.
  • Banks lead a broader rebound in European stocks after the sector subindex closed at a one-year low on Monday, with Societe Generale +7.4% and ABN AMRO +6.9% leading gains in the sector.
  • Greggs shares drop as much as 11% after the U.K. bakery chain said worse-than- expected cost pressures will likely prevent “material profit progression in the year ahead.”
  • Hermes shares fall as much as 3.6% after Bernstein trims the price target of several luxury stocks due to risks for the sector from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
  • Maersk shares fall after being downgraded to neutral from overweight at JPMorgan on a higher freight rate exposure than more defensive names in the shipping sector.
  • Danone shares fall as much as 3.3% before paring losses after the world’s biggest yogurt maker announced new guidance that Bernstein called “modest but sensible.”

Earlier in the session, Asia’s stock benchmark extended declines in a bear market amid growing anxiety over how the sanctions on Russia will impact the global energy market and economy.   The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell as much as 1.8% on Tuesday, having lost 3.1% the previous day in its biggest drop in about a year. The slump has left the measure down by almost 23% from a February 2021 peak. Materials firms were among the biggest drags amid volatile price swings in base metals, while financial companies also weighed.  “People aren’t able to assess at all, how big of a fallout there is going to be from the sanctions on Russia” as well as its invasion of Ukraine, said Tetsuo Seshimo, a portfolio manager at Saison Asset Management Co. in Tokyo. “This is something no one’s been prepared for and everyone’s rushing to respond to what’s happening.”  The Asian benchmark is poised for a third day of declines amid investor angst over the fallout from the war in Ukraine and sustained regulatory pressure on China’s technology sector. Benchmarks in China, Taiwan and the Philippines were the day’s worst performers.

Japanese stocks fell as traders assessed inflation risks amid the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. The Topix slid 1.9% to 1,759.86 at the 3 p.m. close in Tokyo, while the Nikkei 225 declined 1.7% to 24,790.95. Toyota Motor Corp. contributed the most to the Topix’s decline, decreasing 1.8%. Out of 2,176 shares in the index, 345 rose and 1,786 fell, while 45 were unchanged. “With the strengthening sanctions on Russia’s economy, there is a worry over supply fears and soaring costs for products that will be a huge damage to the economy and to corporate earnings,” said Hideyuki Ishiguro, senior strategist at Nomura Asset Management.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index was steady after three days of gains and the greenback traded mixed against its Group-of-10 peers; NOK, SEK and EUR are the best G-10 performers; AUD and CHF lag. Scandinavian currencies and the euro led gains as they pared some of the losses induced by the war in Ukraine while currencies that had benefited, such as the Australian dollar and the Swiss Franc, slipped. The euro briefly rose above the $1.09 handle on news that the EU is considering a joint bond sale to finance energy and defense spending. The Australian dollar led losses as recently established long positions were liquidated. Australian business sentiment improved in February as an outbreak of the omicron variant dissipated, easing supply- chain disruptions and reviving demand, a National Australia Bank survey showed. Poland’s zloty and Hungary’s forint led gains among emerging-market currencies versus the euro, after both tumbled to record lows this week; the ruble erased gains after earlier rising as much as 25% versus the dollar in offshore trading amid disagreements between EU governments on a move to ban Russia’s oil imports.

The ruble was indicated as much as 25% higher versus the dollar in offshore trading before paring the gain. That may reflect disagreements between European Union governments on whether to follow the U.S. in seeking a ban on imports of oil from Russia. Russian local markets remain closed through Wednesday.

In rates, the 10-year Treasury yield jumped seven basis points and yields on core European bonds also rose. Treasury yields rose by 4-7bps, led by the belly; German bund yields were 8-9bps higher while Italian yields fell by up to 4bps. The spread between 10-year Italian and German yields -- a key gauge of risk in the euro region -- tightened. Another spread that tightened is the 5s10s curve, because 5Y yields today rose 10bps to 1.804%, meaning that the difference between the 5Y and 10Y is now below 6bps, taking out the March 2020 lows and back to 2007 pre-crash levels.

In Europe, bund futures dropped back onto a 165-handle. 10y BTP futures stage a short-lived 100 tick rally. Bund, Treasury and gilt curves bear flatten, belly of the German curve underperforms by 2-3bps. Peripheral spreads tighten significantly with 10y Bund/BTP narrowing ~13bps near 148bps.

JPMorgan Chase & Co. said it will remove Russian bonds from all of its widely-tracked indexes, further isolating the nation’s assets from global investors.

In commodities, WTI pushed past $122 a barrel on fears of disarray in commodity flows stemming from the war in Ukraine and sanctions on Russia. Brent rose ~3% back on a $127-handle. European gas futures jumped as much as 32% after Russia threatened to cut natural gas supplies to Europe via the existing Nord Stream pipeline. Most base metals trade in the green; LME nickel stages a historic spike, trading above $100,000 a ton before paring gains and being subsequently halted on LME.

Spot gold rallies to highs of $2,021 so far before fading.

Looking at the day ahead, and it’s a pretty quiet day in terms of the events calendar. Data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for January. Central bank speakers include RBA Governor Lowe.

Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures up 0.4% to 4,213.50
  • STOXX Europe 600 up 0.9% to 421.04
  • German 10Y yield little changed at 0.06%
  • Euro up 0.3% to $1.0885
  • MXAP down 1.6% to 170.26
  • MXAPJ down 1.4% to 558.11
  • Nikkei down 1.7% to 24,790.95
  • Topix down 1.9% to 1,759.86
  • Hang Seng Index down 1.4% to 20,765.87
  • Shanghai Composite down 2.4% to 3,293.53
  • Sensex up 1.1% to 53,449.23
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 0.8% to 6,980.33
  • Kospi down 1.1% to 2,622.40
  • Brent Futures up 2.6% to $126.36/bbl
  • Gold spot up 0.5% to $2,008.65
  • U.S. Dollar Index down 0.18% to 99.12

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • Russia’s threat to cut off gas to Europe in retaliation for sanctions sent prices surging more than 30%, as the European Union scrambles to find alternatives
  • Average pump prices in the U.S. are now $4.173 per gallon, the highest level since records going back to 2000, according to auto club AAA. Government data going back to 1990 show prices have never been higher than they are now. In California, the most expensive U.S. state for drivers, prices have surged to $5.444 a gallon
  • Britain is heading for a recession in the second half of the year if energy prices remain at current levels, according to the National Institute of Economic and Social Research
  • U.K. households are facing the biggest fall in living standards for half a century as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine deepens the cost of living crisis, according to the Resolution Foundation
  • Surging oil prices pushed Japan’s current account into the biggest deficit in eight years, highlighting the economy’s vulnerability as it braces for additional fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
  • Japanese funds bought the largest amount of euro-denominated bonds in more than a year as yields soared amid low currency-hedging costs. Investors acquired a net 1.15 trillion yen ($10 billion) of the securities in January, according to the latest balance- of-payments report released on Tuesday. They sold a net 15.4 billion yen of Russian bonds, the most since March 2014, according to the data

A more detailed look at global markets courtesy of Newsquawk

In Asia-Pacific, stocks declined amid headwinds from global peers as geopolitical and supply concerns remain centre stage. ASX 200 was led lower by weakness in commodity-related sectors including energy after oil prices receded from highs. Nikkei 225 fell below the 25k level for the first time since November 2020. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. were subdued but with losses in Hong Kong cushioned by some reprieve for big tech, while the mainland was pressured on developer woes after Yuzhou Property defaulted on an interest payment.

Top Asian News

  • China Stocks Slide as Inflation Risks Complicate Easing Path
  • Hong Kong’s Mass Covid Testing Could Be Postponed to April: SCMP
  • Asia Stocks Drop as Traders Weigh Impact of Russia Sanctions
  • Indonesia’s Coal Miners Are Bracing for New Export Curbs

European bourses are mixed, Euro Stoxx 50 +0.9%, after an initial boost to sentiment on source reports around large-scale EU bond issuance; albeit, this upside has waned. Similar action has been exhibited in US futures, ES +0.4%, though performance there is positive across the board once more after a brief foray back into negative territory. Within European, sectors are equally mixed with Basic Resources subdued as base-metals waned after LME action while Banking names remain at the top of the pile given yield action. UK Chancellor Sunak and City Minster Glen met with some London-listed Cos, demanding that they signal a more robust approach towards their own holdings in Russia, via Sky News; however, some fund managers were concerned it would turn them into forced sellers.

Top European News

  • IWG Soars as Davy Highlights ‘Excellent’ Momentum Into 1Q
  • Fear Grips Global Diesel Markets on Russian Supply Crunch
  • Schaeffler Suspends Earnings Guidance on War in Ukraine
  • How Europe Became So Dependent on Putin for Its Gas: QuickTake

In Fixed Income, debt extending declines as risk sentiment recovers and Russia abides by no fire rules governing evacuation routes from Ukraine. Bunds also undermined by reports suggesting that the EU is ready to embark on huge joint issuance to pay for energy and defence measures. Gilts only briefly appeased by solid 2051 DMO re-opening sale and USTs remain heavy ahead of a 3 year note auction.

In commodities, WTI and Brent remain underpinned and have not attempted to move with any conviction out of the sessions ranges in European hours, that sees a peak of USD 123.38/bbl USD 127.99/bbl, respectively. UK PM Johnson is planning to tap new areas of the North Sea for oil and gas reserves, according to The Times. Venezuelan President Maduro said talks with the US were polite and productive, while negotiations will continue. Libya's NOC lifted the force majeure and resumed output at the Sharara oil field. IEA's Birol says that oil prices can still go above today's prices; could release a substantial amount of oil stocks if required. LME Nickel saw gains in excess of 100% taking it above USD 100k/t, prompting the LME to suspend trade; spot gold/silver are firmer on the session though off highs and seemingly capped by USD 2020/oz and USD 2031/oz for gold. CME suspended approved status for warranting and delivery of six brands of gold and silver until further notice. LME has suspended trading in Nickel; suspension is, at a minimum, for the remainder of today. LME Nickel contract on all venues suspended as of 08:15GMT, inter-office trades should not be booked for Nickel after this point. Goldman Sachs raised its 3-month gold target to USD 2,300/oz from USD 1,950/oz, while it raised its 6-month target to USD 2,500/oz from USD 2,050/oz and raised its 12-month target to USD 2,500/oz from USD 2,150/oz. CCB International Global Markets received an extension on missed nickel margin calls.

US Event Calendar

  • 6am: Feb. SMALL BUSINESS OPTIMISM, 95.7, est. 97.2, prior 97.1
  • 8:30am: Jan. Trade Balance, est. -$87.3b, prior -$80.7b
  • 10am: Jan. Wholesale Trade Sales MoM, est. 1.0%, prior 0.2%
  • 10am: Jan. Wholesale Inventories MoM, est. 0.8%, prior 0.8%

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

Talking of dislocations, it was yet another wild 24 hours for markets, with further crazy swings in commodities driving a major risk-off move in markets with the S&P 500 (-2.95%) relentlessly falling all day to the lowest since last June with the DAX at 16 month lows and in bear market territory 9 weeks after hitting all time highs.

The day was filled with downbeat Ukraine news as political officials close to the latest round of peace negotiations poured water on any hopes that the conflict would be resolved in the near-term through negotiations. Specifically, Russian negotiators reportedly said the talks didn’t meet expectations, Ukrainians saying there were no significant results, while French President Macron, who is liaising between interested parties, said there wouldn’t be a diplomatic solution within the coming weeks. This dragged risk assets lower through the session. It all led to the continued risk selloff and inflationary pressures working their way into a number of assets.

For commodities, we were already coming out of their strongest week in aggregate since at least the 1950s, as I wrote about in yesterday’s chart of the day (link here). They’ve built on these gains so far this week and yesterday saw the Bloomberg’s Commodity Spot Index (+3.02%) advance for the 10th time in the last 11 sessions. Oil prices were at the forefront of this, with Brent Crude (+4.32%) rising to $123.21/bbl, which is the first time it’s closed above $120/bbl since 2012. That advance masked some sizeable intraday swings as well, since it had been trading around $135 and $128/bbl around the time of the Monday and Asian European open, before falling back throughout the day as remarks from Chancellor Scholz seemed to push back on aggressive energy sanctions against Russia, by describing their oil and gas imports as of “essential importance”. It does feel that the pressure is building on extending sanctions to Russian energy exports across European countries. Public opinion will matter here and there was Handelsblatt survey suggesting Germans would back stopping Russian energy imports. Of course Russia could act first on this front, especially if it felt a ban was coming. Indeed, Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak reportedly threatened to halt Nord Stream 1 gas supplies on state television yesterday.

Meanwhile, there were some reports that the European Commission would be revising its energy strategy to try and reduce EU dependence on Russian gas by 80% in 2022, which would make some of the Russian import bans more tenable. On the other side of the Atlantic, Congressional leaders in both parties apparently reached a deal to ban Russian energy imports into the US, independent of Europe, though apparently President Biden hadn’t made any decisions on a Russian oil import ban.

European natural gas futures hit another record high of €227/MWh yesterday thanks to another +18.0% increase, and at one point shortly after the European open they hit an intraday peak of €345/MWh (+78.6% at this point early in the session). This is now up more than 20-fold from where it was trading just a year earlier. Food prices also bore the brunt, as wheat futures increased +7.03% to a new all-time high. In addition Nickel rose an extraordinary +66% on the day as a short squeeze materlialised on supply concerns.

Overall it’s fair to say that if commodities stay at these elevated levels, it will make life even more difficult for central banks, who will have to try and thread the needle between preventing inflation becoming entrenched without aggravating the slowdown with higher interest rates.

We’ll have to wait and see how this unfolds, but in the meantime there’s been a massive rise in investors’ expectations of future inflation. In Germany, the 10yr breakeven has soared a further +17.8bps to 2.57%, a record in Bloomberg data going back to 2009. In Italy the equivalent measure is up +16.3bps to 2.38%, the highest since 2008. And it’s not obvious that investors are viewing this as a purely transitory surge, with the Euro Area 5y5y forward inflation swap that looks at inflation in the 5 year period starting 5 years from now, rising +9.9bps to 2.20%, a level not seen since early 2014. In the US, 10yr breakevens increased +14.8bps to 2.85%, the highest level on record and the largest daily increase since March 2020.

Ultimately, that big increase in inflation expectations outweighed the decline in real rates and led to a bad day for sovereign bonds on both sides of the Atlantic. Yields on 10yr bunds (+5.4bps), OATs (+3.9bps) and BTPs (+5.9bps) all moved higher by the close. Those on 10yr Treasuries were up +4.3bps to 1.77%, and we also saw the 2s10s yield curve flatten below 20bps for the first time this cycle intraday, touching 18.9bps before closing -3.0bps lower on the day at 21.9bps. All this before the rate hiking cycle has even started. For rates however, the two big events on the calendar this week are both taking place on Thursday, with the ECB’s decision as well as the US CPI reading for February, and previous occasions have had a sizeable influence on how markets are pricing in the monetary policy outlook.

Against that backdrop it was another bad and volatile day for equities. It started very poorly around the European open when the STOXX 600 hit an intraday low of -3.83% in the first hour of trading. By the close it had turned around to “only” close -1.10% lower, but that still marked the index’s lowest level since exactly a year ago today and now means the index has lost over -15% since its all-time closing high in early January. The Dax (-1.98%) has now lost -21.12% since the peak on January 5 and is at 16-month lows.

US indices saw even larger losses yesterday, with a notable move lower after Europe closed following the aforementioned headlines tempering expectations for a near-term diplomatic solution. The S&P 500 (-2.95%) had its worst daily return since October 2020 and moved back into correction territory thanks to heavy losses among the more cyclical sectors, while the VIX index of volatility (+4.47pts) hit its highest level in over a year, at 36.45pts. In turn, those losses saw the NASDAQ decline by an even larger -3.62%, more than -20% from its all-time high reached in November, and for the first time the FANG+ index (-4.41%) of megacap tech stocks closed more than -25% beneath its all-time high back in November.

Safe havens were one of the few beneficiaries from yesterday’s moves, with the US dollar index (+0.65%) strengthening to a 21-month high. Conversely the Euro (-0.68%) weakened for a 6th consecutive session to close at $1.085. Another haven beneficiary were gold prices, which closed at an 18-month high of their own at $1998.11/oz.

If you’re looking for any hope after a day of gloomy news, reports of the latest Russian demands seemed to be less excessive than over recent days, noting they would stop military action should Ukraine forego claims to enter any blocs and if Ukraine recognised Crimea, Donetsk, and Lugansk as Russian territory or independent. While not palatable for Ukrainian negotiators, the demands are at least traveling in the right direction.

Asian equity markets are trading lower again this morning though with mainland Chinese markets leading losses. The Shanghai Composite (-1.99%), CSI 300 (-1.69%), Nikkei (1.21%), Kospi (-0.80%) and the Hang Seng (-0.45%) are all trading in negative territory as the Russian-Ukraine conflict shows no sign of cooling. Moving ahead, stock index futures in the DMs point towards a negative start as contracts on the S&P 500 (-0.18%), Nasdaq (-0.34%), Dow Jones (-0.27%) and DAX (-0.57%) are weak. Brent crude is +2.0% up at $125.7/bbl with WTI futures gaining +1.4% to trade at $121.03/bbl. Meanwhile, the yield on the 10-yr US Treasury note moved +2.2bps higher at 1.795%.

Early this morning, data showed that Labour cash earnings in Japan rebounded + 0.9% y/y in January (vs Bloomberg consensus: +0.1%) and against December’s revised -0.4% drop, while inflation-adjusted real earnings surprisingly gained +0.4% y/y in January (vs consensus -1.0%), posting the first rise in five months. It followed a revised decline of -2.3% in the preceding month. Separately, Japan’s bank lending (+0.4% y/y) rose at the slowest pace in a decade in February and following a downwardly revised +0.5% increase in January. In central bank news, the BOJ Governor Haruhiko Kuroda this morning stated that the Japanese economy is yet to recover fully from the pandemic impact and also mentioned that the central bank would ramp its purchase of JGBs or conduct fixed-rate operations if the 10-yr JGB yield moves beyond the desired range.

Elsewhere German retail sales grew by +2.0% in January (vs. +1.9% expected) yesterday, and factory orders were up by +1.8% (vs. +1.0% expected). Foreign orders drove the rise with a +9.4% gain, contrary to domestic orders which fell -8.3%.

To the day ahead now, and it’s a pretty quiet day in terms of the events calendar. Data releases include German industrial production and Italian retail sales for January. Central bank speakers include RBA Governor Lowe.

Tyler Durden Tue, 03/08/2022 - 08:09
Published:3/8/2022 7:24:55 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Extend Losses As Russia-Ukraine War Continues; Oil Prices Climb Again Dow Jones futures climbed Tuesday, looking to rebound from Monday's stock market dive. U.S oil prices continue to rise, topping $123 a barrel. Published:3/8/2022 7:24:55 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rally: What To Do After Monday's Stock Market Dive As Russia-Ukraine War Continues Dow Jones futures rallied Tuesday, as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. Here's what to do following Monday's stock market dive. Published:3/8/2022 6:20:15 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall: What To Do After Today's Stock Market Dive As Russia-Ukraine War Continues Dow Jones futures were in focus Monday, as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. Here's what to do following Monday's stock market dive. Published:3/7/2022 10:20:17 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: What To Do After Today's Stock Market Dive As Russia-Ukraine War Continues Dow Jones futures were in focus Monday, as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. Here's what to do following Monday's stock market dive. Published:3/7/2022 5:16:42 PM
[Markets] "The Market Is Totally Dysfunctional" - Traders Concerned Russian CDS Won't Pay Out In Event Of Default "The Market Is Totally Dysfunctional" - Traders Concerned Russian CDS Won't Pay Out In Event Of Default

Since the start of Russia's invasion of Ukraine, the financial press has been filled with stories about investors who are on the losing end of the historic selloff in Russian assets. There's the Kentucky pension fund that lost millions on its position in Sberbank (Russia's largest bank, which has decided to pull its European business due to sanctions, but was ironically excluded from the SWIFT "selective" ban), and the Russian trader who toasted to "the death of the stock market" during a Russian TV interview.

All because Russian equities have fallen by an absurd amount: the Dow Jones Russia GDR Index, an index designed to track the top Russian GDRs that trade on the LSE, plunged a mind-numbing 97% in just a few days and wiped out $572 billion.

Moscow's stock market, of course, will remain shuttered at least until the middle of the week ahead, according to Russian authorities. But the market for Russian CDS has been a different story. Investors have seen premiums rise, but not by as much as some might have expected given the move in Russian foreign currency sovereign bonds. 

As they try to account for this, some investors are aying there's another risk to consider. And that is: what if sanctions prevent holders of CDS to collect on their winnings should a default occur?

The FT addressed several reasons why Russian CDS might not pay out even in the event of a default.

Citing a handful of traders, some anonymous, some not, the FT said CDS premiums have moved to incorporate  concerns that CDS holders might not be able to get their money if Russia defaults, which some traders believe could happen as soon as the middle of March, when the next payment by Russia is due. The big fear of course isn't that Moscow doesn't have the money, but that enough of its foreign currency central bank reserves have been frozen to make obtaining the euros and dollars required for settlement extremely difficult.

It's an issue we highlighted a few days ago in a tweet:

One EM debt trader says he has a "high conviction" that Russia won't pay on March 16 (though Moscow made a payment just this past week on its ruble-denominated debt, which isn't covered by the CDS).

"We have a high conviction that [Russia] will not pay," said Marcelo Assalin, head of emerging market debt at William Blair. "But the market is totally dysfunctional. The problem we face is CDS is implying a recovery value that’s not realistic."

Some traders are looking to the past for clues: they see Venezuela (sanctions prevented foreign buyers from purchasing its newly issued debt, just like Russia), as well as CDS "mishaps" like rental car company Europcar, in 2021, and Dutch lender SNS Reaal, in 2013. Three foreign currency bonds are subject to settlement in Russia, making the untradeable. Others have 'fallback' mechanisms allowing Russia to settle in rubles.

Others are worried about the possibility that the International Swaps and Derivatives Association might amend CDS contracts to reference only older bonds unaffected by the sanctions. In a statement, ISDA didn't deny the possibility that it could mandate certain changes to these agreements.

"Members are working to comply with the sanctions, and the impact and required actions will depend on their individual circumstances,” said an ISDA spokesperson. "ISDA is in regular contact with members to identify any common, marketwide issues that may emerge, and to assist in finding mutualised solutions where appropriate."

Most of Russia's foreign currency bonds are still tradeable, which has allowed US megabanks like Goldman Sachs and JP Morgan to scoop up cheap debt on behalf of clients (or even perhaps for their own book, anticipating buyers down the road). But there's always the possibility that future sanctions could freeze trading on the secondary market, creating additional risks that have contributed to the steep drop in prices.

Russian President Vladimir Putin has already taken some steps to try and avoid default on corporate and sovereign debt by issuing a decree mandating the option for payment in rubles, according to Bloomberg.

The decree establishes temporary rules for sovereign and corporate debtors to make payments to creditors from “countries that engage in hostile activities” against Russia, its companies and citizens. The government will prepare a list of such countries within two days.

Russian corporate bonds denominated in foreign currencies have plunged to deeply distressed levels in recent days as investors weighed the impact of sanctions imposed on the country in the wake of its invasion of Ukraine. The Russian government responded to the sanctions by reducing dramatically access to foreign currencies, which could restrict the ability of bondholders to receive interest and principal payments.

While uncertainty keeps CDS premiums elevated, Wall Street has already started to advise clients that certain Russian assets are now deeply undervalued.  For example, we noted earlier that a team of JPMorgan strategists led by Zafar Nazim published a note on Friday titled "Russian Corps: If Ifs-And-Buts-Were-Candy-And-Nuts Recovery Analysis; Move LUKOIL, NLMK, MMK to OW" (available to professional subs).

In the note, they upgrade a trio of Russian corporate bonds - those of Lukoil, Novolipetsk Steel and Magnitogorsk Iron & Steel to "Overweight" - which JPM sees as remaining money good (i.e., not defaulting).

The full Lukoil recovery analysis suggests that total debt coverage via international ops is at least 133% and could be as high as 212%.

There's also the issue of optics, which of course complicates the picture of holding Russian assets in the hopes of a recovery (but probably wouldn't have the same stigma for holders of CDS, since they're betting on a collapse).

After all, Sen. Elizabeth Warren has already lashed out at Wall Street "opportunists".

“Giant Wall Street banks like JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs never miss out on an opportunity to get richer even if it means capitalizing on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and undermining sanctions placed on Russian businesses,” said Warren.

Which means politicians likely won't have any sympathy for institutional investors who wind up burned on their Russia holdings, even if it is CDS.

Tyler Durden Mon, 03/07/2022 - 15:40
Published:3/7/2022 2:47:13 PM
[] The Morning Rant: Scattered Buck Shots (3/07/2022) Collapse of Small-Cap Stocks Is Twice As Bad As The Dow Jones Correction If you’re watching the value of your 401K, you’ve probably noticed that it’s taken a hit recently. If it’s invested in an index fund tracking the S&P... Published:3/7/2022 10:15:53 AM
[Markets] Stocks open mostly lower as Russia-Ukraine war drives volatile trade in oil Stocks opened lower as investors continued to monitor developments around Russia's invasion of Ukraine, tracking volatile action in crude-oil prices. The Dow Jones Industrial Average fell 132 points, or 0.4%, to 33,483, while the S&P 500 fell 0.2% to 4,321 and the Nasdaq Composite rose 0.3% to 13,349. Stock-index futures had fallen sharply in early activity as oil futures spiked, taking the U.S. benchmark briefly above $130 a barrel. Oil futures have since pulled back, with WTI futures up 0.7% a Published:3/7/2022 8:49:55 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Drop As Russia-Ukraine War Continues; Oil Prices Briefly Surge Above $130 A Barrel Dow Jones futures pared sharp losses Monday, as the Russia-Ukraine war continues. U.S. oil prices briefly surged above $130 a barrel. Published:3/7/2022 7:14:05 AM
[Markets] Futures Tumble, Europe In Bear Market As Oil, Gold Soar Futures Tumble, Europe In Bear Market As Oil, Gold Soar

Not much has changed since our market update last night which saw all risk assets collapse and in many cases set to open in bear markets, amid a soaring panic that the US will impose a unilateral oil embargo on Russia leading to an energy supply shock and global stagflation, while safe havens such as gold, treasuries, and the dollar are exploding higher not to mention crude which was last trading at $125 after briefly rising above $139 at the start of the session. Commodities from grains, metals have also surged on concerns of chaos in raw-material flows due to the invasion and sanctions on Russia that are turning the resources powerhouse into a global pariah. Commodity-linked currencies strengthened.

S&P 500 e-mini futures were down as much as 2.1% earlier before trading 1% lower 7am in New York after a faint glimmer of hope of de-escalation when the following headlines hit Reuters:


And now we wait for the latest Ukranian refusal of these conditions. Meanwhile Nasdaq futures retreated 1.7%. Brent oil was up as much as 18% today, trading around $125 a barrel as the Biden administration is considering whether to prohibit Russian oil imports into the U.S. without participation of allies in Europe, at least initially, according to a Bloomberg report.

“For the U.S. economy, we now see stagflation, with persistently higher inflation and less economic growth than expected before the war,” Ed Yardeni, president of Yardeni Research, wrote in a note. “For stock investors, we think 2022 will continue to be one of this bull market’s toughest years.”

Travel stocks were down in premarket trading, with airlines dropping as a surge in oil prices stokes worries over higher jet fuel costs. American Airlines Group (AAL US) -3.2%, Delta Air Lines (DAL US) -3%. On the other end, U.S. energy shares soared as crude oil prices soar after the U.S. said it was considering curbs on imports of Russian oil. Exxon (XOM US), Chevron (CVX US), Marathon Oil (MRO US) are all up about 3% as WTI crude futures gain 6.4% to $123.02 a barrel.  Cryptocurrency-exposed stocks could be active on Monday as digital currencies including Bitcoin slide alongside risk assets such as stocks. Watch Coinbase (COIN US), Riot Blockchain (RIOT US), Marathon Digital (MARA US). Banks stocks slumped in premarket trading, pushing their recent rout to a third day. In corporate news, banking and credit card technology unicorn Zeta Services has raised $30 million from investors including Mastercard. Meanwhile, American Express says it is suspending its operations in Russia and Belarus. Bed Bath & Beyond (BBBY US) shares exploded as much as 75% after RC Ventures, an investment firm started by GameStop Chairman Ryan Cohen, disclosed a large stake in the retailer, while pushing it to explore a sale of the company.

While the Russian aggression in Ukraine continues the risk of a further escalation keeps investors unsettled. Soaring energy prices are at the heart of economic vulnerabilities,” said Thomas Hempell, head of macro and market research at Generali Investments. “Price pressures are compounded by mounting risk of supply chain disruptions as Russian firms are cut off financially and cargo traffic is curtailed.”

Late on Sunday Bloomberg reported that the Biden administration is considering whether to ban the import of Russian oil and energy products unilaterally, a move that could add to economic pressure as more companies pull out of the country in response to Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine. High energy prices threaten to stall global growth, a risk that is sending tremors across markets.

The commodity supply shock comes as the global economy was already struggling with high inflation due to the pandemic. The Federal Reserve and other key central banks now face the tricky task of tightening monetary policy to contain the cost of living without upending economic expansion or roiling risky assets.

Meanwhile, traders piled into options that oil could surge even further after rising to the highest since 2008, with many adding to calls that Brent futures will rise above $200 before the end of March. For those who missed the key developments over the weekend and overnight, here is a recap of the latest Russian energy/economic updates, courtesy of Newsquawk

  • US Secretary of State Blinken said the US and allies are in active discussions regarding a Russian oil import ban and reports later stated the US is weighing acting without allies on a ban of Russian oil imports, although the timing and scope of any ban is still fluid, according to Bloomberg.
  • US House Speaker Pelosi said the House is exploring legislation to ban the import of Russian oil.
  • Japan is in talks with the US and Europe regarding a Russian oil embargo, according to Kyodo.
  • Russian Kremlin spokesman Peskov said there will be a reaction to the economic banditry they are seeing and that a ban on Russian oil risks the most serious market impact, while Peskov added that NATO is aware it cannot get directly involved in Ukraine. Kremlin also stated that companies will return to Russia and invest one day.
  • Russia said it is to service and pay Russian bonds fully on time but stated that payments on debts to foreign residents will depend on limits imposed by foreign states.
  • American Express (AXP) suspends operations in Russia and Belarus which is due to the Russian attack on the people of Ukraine. Visa (V) and Mastercard (MA) are also to suspend operations in Russia in which Visa noted that all transactions initiated with Visa cards issued in Russia will no longer work outside the country and Mastercard said cards issued by Russian banks will no longer be supported by its network. However, Russia’ s largest lender Sberbank noted that the Visa and Mastercards it issued will continue to work in Russia, according to Tass.
  • Banks in Russia are rapidly trying to move to the Chinese UnionPay's system and its own Mir network after Visa and Mastercard suspended operations in Russia
  • VTB Bank is preparing to pull out of Europe, according to FT.
  • PwC is to separate its Russian firm from the rest of its global network which affects 3,700 partners and staff in the country.
  • TikTok limited services in Russia due to the 'Fake News' law and Netflix (NFLX) also decided to suspend its service in Russia.
  • Moody’s downgraded Russia’s sovereign ratings from B3 to CA; Outlook Negative, while it cut Ukraine’s sovereign rating two notches from B3 to Caa2.
  • Ukraine introduced export licences for key agricultural commodities including wheat, corn and sunflower oil.

And here is the latest in the ongoing discussions and negotiations:

  • Russia-Ukraine discussions to commence at 12:00GMT/07:00EST on Monday, according to Russian State TV citing Belta; Russian delegation has arrived for the discussions; subsequently, Ukraine Presidential Adviser says new talks with Russia will start at 14:00GMT/09:00EST.
  • Russian & Ukraine Foreign Ministers are to meet in Antalya, Turkey, according to the Turkish Foreign Minister; meeting will occur on Thursday.
  • Ukrainian Foreign Minister Kuleba said he doesn’t see progress in peace talks with Russia but have to continue talking, while he talked to US Secretary of State Blinken about providing more weapons to Ukrainian fighters and implementing more sanctions against Russia. Furthermore, US Secretary of State Blinken said unprecedented pressure on Russia will increase until the war with Ukraine is brought to an end, according to Reuters.
  • Russian President Putin warned that they would consider any third-party declaration of a no-fly zone over Ukraine as participation in the armed conflict and said western sanctions are akin to a declaration of war, while he added there is no reason to declare martial law in Russia.
  • Russian President Putin held a call with Turkish President Erdogan in which Putin said Russia is ready for dialogue with Ukraine and foreign partners, while he added that the military operation in Ukraine is going according to plan and any attempt to draw out the negotiation process will fail.
  • Russian President Putin and French President Macron held a call on Sunday in which Putin told Macron that he agreed to talks between the IAEA, Ukraine and Russia to ensure security at nuclear sites.
  • Russian Defence Ministry said the use of airfields of other countries by Ukraine airforce may be considered as participation of those countries in the conflict, according to Interfax.
  • Russian Foreign Ministry said Britain has chosen to move towards open confrontation with Russia and that Russia will respond which will undoubtedly undermine British interests in Russia.

European equities were hit hard at the open with focus turning to the inflationary impact of elevated energy and the subsequent dent to global trade. Cash indexes are deep in the red, Euro Stoxx 50 down as much as 4.75%, DAX and CAC drop 5%; FTSE MIB lags, cratering as much as 6.25%. As BBG's Heather Burke notes, the Euro Stoxx 50 has slid more than 20% from its November high, poised for a technical bear market at the close, with similar moves seen in major European regional benchmarks. Banks, retail, autos and travel are the biggest decliners as investors worry about Russia exposure and the prospects of higher inflation and slower growth. Energy and miners are in the green as commodities soar. Over 90% of Stoxx 600 members are down. U.S. futures’ declines are also picking up. Energy and banks had benefited from gains in value stocks; through mid-February they were the two best Stoxx 600 performers.

Banks, autos and retail names are the hardest hit; energy and mining stocks hold in positive territory with the commodities well bid. European banks declined 8% to lowest level since February 2021 amid a global sell-off spurred by concerns that surging oil prices will slow global growth. The Stoxx 600 Banks Index was the worst-performing sector in Europe, with all 39 members declining. Russia exposed banks were all down double digits: UniCredit -12%, Commerzbank -12%, Societe Generale -11%, Deutsche Bank -10%, while Raiffeisen fell as much as 13% down, to lowest level since June 2016. Energy and miners are now the only two sectors in the green ytd as oil trades near $130 and metals spike. Banks, on the other hand, have been pressured by Russia exposure, falling bond yields and economic uncertainty and how that will affect monetary policy. The ratio between European energy and banks has risen to the highest since April 2020 and can easily surpass the March 2020 pandemic peak.

Here are some of the biggest European movers today:

  • European energy and basic resources stocks surged in the face of a broader equity-market rout as commodity prices extended gains amid concerns that the war in Ukraine may spur a supply shock, with Lundin Energy, Shell, Equinor and Galp Energia all up 6% or more.
  • European defense companies, including BAE Systems and Thales, are also among Monday’s gainers, as Russian President Vladimir Putin reiterated over the weekend that the war will continue.
  • Clarkson shares jump as much as 8.8% after Liberum said the shipping services provider made the most of strong markets in its broking and financial segments.
  • Pearson is the only member of the Stoxx 600 media index, as UBS upgrades to neutral from sell, saying the stock could advance by more than 50% if the company can deliver 2025 targets.
  • The Automobiles & Parts subindex is the worst-performing subindex on the Stoxx 600, dropping 5%. Finland’s Nokian Renkaat, which is heavily exposed to Russia, leads losses.
  • European bank stocks declined to their lowest level since February 2021, led by losses for banks with exposure to eastern Europe, such as Erste Group Bank and PKO Bank, both dropping more than 11%.
  • Luxury stocks slumped as store closures in Russia dented earnings prospects for the group while the oil price surge also added to pessimism over the economic outlook.
  • Airline stocks also took a beating from Brent oil’s climb, signaling a further increase in costs for the aviation sector, with Wizz Air -11% and International Consolidated Air -7.9% leading losses.
  • Inditex shares dropped as Credit Suisse said the clothes retailer may struggle to deliver medium-term growth, cutting its PT for the Spanish retailer to a new street low.
  • Jupiter Fund Management shares hit their lowest since April 2020. Stock is cut to hold from add at Peel Hunt, which now expects net outflows to continue into FY22 for the asset manager.
  • Oxford Instruments shares drop as much as 24

Earlier in the session, APAC stocks declined as geopolitical concerns lingered ahead of the third round of Ukraine-Russia talks and after evacuation attempts over the weekend in Mariupol were halted amid a ceasefire breach, while the US and allies are engaged in a “very active discussion” regarding a Russian oil embargo. ASX 200 weakened as tech led the declines across most industries aside from the commodity-related sectors which were boosted by a spike in oil and supply squeeze concerns across the metals complex. Nikkei 225 suffered a near-1000 point intraday loss with notable weakness in autos and airlines stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the risk aversion after China set its lowest growth target in 30 years at 'around 5.5%' and with mixed Chinese trade data also failing to inspire a turnaround.

In rates, treasuries have erased their opening gains, when futures gapped higher when Asia session began. Short-dated yields lead the move, higher by nearly ~5bp. Yields were higher across the curve, 10-year by 4.3bp at 1.77%; during Asia session it declined as much as 6.5bp to 1.666%, lowest since Jan. 5 and just above its 100-DMA, which has held since end of last year. TIPS yields little changed, outperforming after oil’s surge to 2008 levels above $130. In Europe, curves were mixed as Germany bull flattens with the short end ~3bps richer. Peripheral spreads widened, short end Spain and Italy snap ~8bps wider.  Core European bonds advanced in the front end while peripherals slumped; Germany’s 10-year breakeven rate jumped to a record high. Euro 5y5y inflation swaps ramp up ~14bps near 2.24%, German 10y breakevens print a record high near 2.4%.

In FX, the Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index rallied 0.6% back above 1,200 as a selloff of European currencies continued; Treasuries were a tad lower. Australian, New Zealand and Canadian dollars rose as they benefited from rallying commodity prices, while Poland’s zloty and Hungary’s forint tumbled to all-time lows against the euro and Sweden’s krona fell below 10 per dollar for the first time since April 2020. The euro slid to 1.0822, its weakest level in almost two years against the greenback and three-month 25 delta risk reversals on EUR/USD showed the biggest bias to puts since the European debt crisis. The common currency slipped below parity with the Swiss franc for the first time since January 2015. It erased the losses on speculation that the SNB was intervening.

The pound slumped to the lowest since December and Gilt yields rose by up to 7bps, led by the front end. Australian and New Zealand dollars gained as much as 1% each, before paring, amid the spike in oil and as iron ore jumped on Chinese stimulus hopes. The yen dropped for the first time in three days on concern higher energy prices will weigh on Japan’s trade balance.

In commodities, Brent and WTI hold roughly half of their gains; Brent trades near $125 having surged on to a $139-handle in early Asia triggered by reports that the U.S. was discussing a ban on Russian crude imports. Base metals skyrocket: LME nickel surges ~30%, palladium hits an all-time high. Spot gold trades near $2,000/oz.

The Indian rupee fell to a record low as crude oil prices surged to the highest since 2008, stoking fears about inflation and finances for the net-energy importer. Bonds also declined.  USD/INR rose 1% on Monday to 76.9662 after climbing to 76.9812 earlier.

Bitcoin remains subdued and sub-USD 40k after losing the handle towards the tail-end of last week.



Market Snapshot

  • S&P 500 futures down 1.6% to 4,259.25
  • STOXX Europe 600 down 3.0% to 409.12
  • MXAP down 2.8% to 173.52
  • MXAPJ down 2.7% to 567.72
  • Nikkei down 2.9% to 25,221.41
  • Topix down 2.8% to 1,794.03
  • Hang Seng Index down 3.9% to 21,057.63
  • Shanghai Composite down 2.2% to 3,372.86
  • Sensex down 2.9% to 52,756.70
  • Australia S&P/ASX 200 down 1.0% to 7,038.59
  • Kospi down 2.3% to 2,651.31
  • German 10Y yield little changed at -0.06%
  • Euro down 0.6% to $1.0865
  • Brent Futures up 6.4% to $125.64/bbl
  • Gold spot up 1.3% to $1,995.63
  • U.S. Dollar Index up 0.39% to 99.03

Top Overnight News from Bloomberg

  • President Vladimir Putin said again on Sunday the war will continue until Ukraine accepts his demands and halts resistance, dimming hopes for a negotiated settlement. Putin says Ukraine must “demilitarize” and he has made clear his goal is to remove the current government
  • Major stock markets from Europe to Asia are heading for bear markets -- falling more than 20% from highs -- amid fears of an inflation shock as crude oil soared on the prospect of a ban on Russian supplies
  • The SNB’s foreign-exchange holdings slipped as a surging franc weighed on its stockpile. Foreign-currency reserves declined by 8.4 billion francs ($8.7 billion) to 938.3 billion francs in February, according to data published Monday. The central bank said “the franc continues to be highly valued. The SNB takes the overall currency situation into consideration, individual currency pairs don’t play a special role. The central bank is still ready to intervene in the foreign exchange market if necessary.”
  • German factory orders increased for a third month, driven by foreign demand, even as the pandemic probably tipped Europe’s largest economy into another recession. Orders rose 1.8% from the previous month in January after advancing 2.8% in December -- more than the median estimate in a Bloomberg survey
  • With soaring consumer prices showing little signs so far of feeding a pay spiral in the euro zone, the region’s labor market faces an even bigger cost-of- living increase as energy prices soar after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine
  • China declared ties with Russia to be “rock solid” despite President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, while repeating earlier an accusation that the U.S. is trying to build a Pacific version of NATO
  • China’s export growth moderated in the first two months of the year, pointing to more stable global demand as multiple risks cloud the outlook

A more detailed look at global markets from Newsquawk

Asia-Pac stocks declined as geopolitical concerns lingered ahead of the third round of Ukraine-Russia talks and after evacuation attempts over the weekend in Mariupol were halted amid a ceasefire breach, while the US and allies are engaged in a “very active discussion” regarding a Russian oil embargo. ASX 200 weakened as tech led the declines across most industries aside from the commodity-related sectors which were boosted by a spike in oil and supply squeeze concerns across the metals complex. Nikkei 225 suffered a near-1000 point intraday loss with notable weakness in autos and airlines stocks. Hang Seng and Shanghai Comp. conformed to the risk aversion after China set its lowest growth target in 30 years at 'around 5.5%' and with mixed Chinese trade data also failing to inspire a turnaround

Top Asian News

  • Xi Warns Missteps on Ethnic Issues Would ‘Destabilize’ China
  • LSE Reviewing Trades Executed in Polymetal After Brief Spike
  • SMBC Nikko Strips 2 Arrested Employees of Executive Titles
  • China Builder Logan Downgraded Deeper into Junk by Moody’s

European bourses are hampered across the board, Euro Stoxx 50 -2.3%, as geopolitics continue to dominate. US futures are also pressured, ES -1.7%, but faring marginally better than European peers as participants remain cognisant of US CPI this week and the Fed next week. In Europe, the likes of the FTSE 100 are the relative outperformers given exposure to crude names as the associated Oil & Gas sector cheers benchmark pricing while Basis Resources are firmer.

Top European News

  • JPM Strategists Stay Positive for Europe Stocks on Fundamentals
  • Danske Bank Senior ESG Analyst Leaves for Risk Management at DNB
  • Vopak Plummets; Jefferies Cuts on ‘Looming’ Overcapacity
  • Jupiter Sinks as Peel Hunt Cuts Rating on Difficult Outlook

In FX, the dollar remains king, but not quite all conquering as commodity currencies outperform and Gold scales in around the 2k per ounce mark; DXY approaching 99.500 after clearer round number breach. Aussie hovers on 0.7400 handle as iron ore and copper soar. Euro slammed but off worst levels vs Franc after verbal SNB intervention; EUR/CHF back over parity, but EUR /USD dangling above 1.0800. Rouble slides to new record lows ahead of third attempt to strike ceasefire agreement between Russia and Ukraine - Usd/Rub over 135.00 at one stage. Norwegian Crown elevated as Brent remains bid alongside WTI on possible Russian export embargo; EUR /NOK sub-9.8000 vs EUR/SEK around 10.8800 for comparison. SNB says the CHF continues to be "Highly Valued", remains prepared to intervene in FX markets if needed. CHF appreciation reflects the inflation differentials between Switzerland and other nations, inflation abroad is significantly higher than in Switzerland. BoJ could lower its economic assessment at its policy meeting next week, according to Reuters sources.

In commodities, WTI and Brent surge amid multiple bullish-factors re. US possibly banning Russian oil, Iran-nuclear delays and China growth ambitions; thus, benchmarks reached highs of USD 130.50/bbl and USD 139.13/bbl respectively. US officials held meetings in Venezuela amid a search for alternative oil supplies, according to FT. It was later reported that US and Venezuela discussed possible easing of oil sanctions although made little progress towards an agreement, according to sources cited by Reuters. US President Biden's advisers are mulling a Saudi Arabia trip to convince the kingdom to pump more oil, according to Axios. Canada's Alberta Province has some spare pipeline and rail capacity to export additional oil to the US, according to Alberta's Energy Minister. Libya NOC announced an armed group closed pump valves at the Sharara and el-Feel oil fields which reduced its daily production by 330k bbls. Goldman Sachs says a sustained USD 20/bbl increase in oil prices would reduce US GDP by 0.3% and Euroarea by 0.6%. Spot gold/silver are bid though the yellow metal is yet to embark on a substantial move above the USD 2000/oz mark. Copper strengthened to above USD 5/lb for the first time in history amid the broad upside across the commodities complex that saw LME nickel futures gain around 19%.

US Event Calendar

  • 3pm: Jan. Consumer Credit, est. $24.5b, prior $18.9b

DB's Jim Reid concludes the overnight wrap

In normal times this Thursday's US CPI and ECB meeting would be the blockbuster couple of hours of the week. It will still be important but clearly won't be the main event given the Ukrainian situation.

Indeed the week is set to start in somewhat of a fraught manner after a remarkable surge in oil overnight with Brent futures up +9.7% to $129.59/bbl and WTI futures +8.1% to $125.07/bbl, as I type - the highest since 2008. Indeed Brent actually opened nearer $139 in a stunning early move.

This comes following US Secretary of State, Antony Blinken stating that Washington and its allies were in talks about banning Russian oil and natural gas imports to tighten economic sanctions on Russia. Blinken added that the US administration will make sure that there is sufficient oil in the global market, if such measures were imposed. Additionally, Speaker Nancy Pelosi said in a letter to Democratic colleagues that the chamber is exploring strong legislation to ban the imports of Russian oil – a move which would “further isolate Russia from the global economy”.

Equity markets are set to open sharply lower as a result with contracts on the S&P 500 (-1.27%), Nasdaq (-1.72%), Dow Jones (-1.0%) and DAX (-3.11%) all weak. Meanwhile, 10-year US Treasury yields moved -2.9bps lower at 1.70%. Elsewhere, the Nikkei (-3.48%), Hang Seng (-3.41%), Shanghai Composite (-1.48%), CSI (-2.38%) and Kospi (-2.02%) are also weak.

There hasn't been much new news over the weekend that progresses the narrative on the conflict and it's looking more likely that this will be an attritional battle absent a major development. For economies and markets, especially in Europe it then depends on whether the gas (and to a lesser extent oil) continues to flow from Russia to the continent. At the moment it seems the European governments are keen for the gas flow to continue (assuming Russia does) but I suppose a risk to this scenario is that public opinion becomes increasingly against that scenario and politicians have to respond. The news out of the US over the weekend shows the momentum is building for fiercer sanctions on Russia.

The oil move this morning comes after there was some hope on Saturday that Iran have moved closer to a position where sanctions could be reduced and thus allowing their oil to flow onto the global market place as early as the third quarter. However yesterday it seemed that Tehran's links to Russia were increasingly seen as a big stumbling block. So we'll see how this story develops.

Another interesting story over the weekend was the Chinese government’s 5.5% 2022 growth target announced at the National People's Congress. Most analysts believed it would be around 5% or just above and our economists wrote last week that if the target was 5.5% it would imply direct additional government support for the economy. They added that this could come at the expense of long-term growth and financial stability. Our economists' update yesterday on how the target might be achieved here.

Previewing the main scheduled events of the week now. For US CPI our economists expect year-on-year inflation to rise to +7.8% in February, the fastest in 40 years. This is the last reading before next Wednesday's FOMC conclusion with the committee now in a blackout period. Perhaps the drama of both these events has been reduced by a quite explicit reference last week by Powell that he favours a 25bps hike next week. Having said that a strong CPI will certainly keep a 50bps move in subsequent meetings firmly on the radar so it's still clearly important to try to assess where we are in the inflation cycle.

As for the ECB on Thursday, their meeting comes after the Euro Area flash CPI print for February last week came in at +5.8% (vs. +5.6% expected), which is the highest level in the single currency's history. A preview of the meeting from our European economists can be found here. They expect the Ukraine crisis to prevent the central bank from announcing APP tapering at this point. Also, in their view, the ECB's message will reinforce its commitment to price stability and addressing fragmentation. Our FX strategists have made a strong case for how the ECB need to intervene soon to ensure that a falling Euro doesn't magnify the soaring energy costs. See here for more

Elsewhere Wednesday is an interesting day as we have US JOLTS which is a good gauge of labour market tightness, and PPI in both China and Japan. The rest of the day by day week ahead is at the end as usual.

Looking back now, it was a difficult and volatile week for markets with commodities the highlight. Brent crude oil futures increased +20.55% over the week (+6.93% Friday) reaching $118/bbl, the highest level since 2013, and the largest weekly increase in absolute dollar terms in Bloomberg’s data dating back to 1988. European natural gas, however, stole the show, increasing +116.20% (+19.73% Friday) to an all-time high of €204.14. Unsurprisingly it marked the largest weekly increase in percentage and euro terms on record. Clearly a very worrying situation on this side of the continent.

The price pressures extend beyond energy, as agricultural prices also saw marked increases. Russia and Ukraine collectively export just under a third of the world’s wheat, leading wheat futures to increase +40.62% (+6.61% Friday). Metals were not spared, with aluminium, copper, and palladium increasing +14.39% (+3.57% Friday), +9.65% (+3.30% Friday), and +27.14% (+8.19% Friday), respectively. The Bloomberg commodity spot index therefore increased +13.02% (+3.34%) over the week, the highest level and largest weekly gain on record.

Central banks were obviously in focus given the inflationary pressures and change to the growth outlook. STIR markets are pricing +24.1bps of ECB tightening through this year, down from +34.3bps of tightening at the end of the week before. Meanwhile, Chair Powell signalled his preference to lift rates by 25 basis points at the March FOMC meeting. He sounded a hawkish tone on the risks from inflation. He paid heed to the uncertain impacts stemming from the war but downplayed the direct economic impacts to the US. Markets are pricing +141.3bps of tightening from the Fed this year, down slightly from +155.6bps at the end of the week before. Not a big destruction in pricing given the war and sanctions escalation.

Longer term interest rates fell on the flight to quality flows, with 10yr treasury, bund, OAT, and gilt yields tumbling -23.1bps (-11.0bps Friday), -30.0bps (-8.9bps Friday), -27.2bps (-6.1bps Friday), and -24.9bps (-9.1bs Friday), respectively. Notably, 10yr bund yields ended the week back in negative territory at -0.07%. The move was driven by real yields, as breakevens widened in line with increases in commodity prices, with 10yr US, German, French, and UK breakevens increasing +14.1bps (+0.8bps Friday), +34.5bps (+9.6bps Friday), +27.4bps (+5.0bps Friday), and +12.8bps (-1.3bps Friday), respectively.

The continued pricing of central bank tightening combined with global risk off drove the 2s10s treasury yield curve -13.9bps (-5.8bps Friday) flatter, finishing the week at +24.9bps, another low that is only matched by March 2020 levels.

The final piece is global equity indices, which were red across the board but with US stocks holding up impressively well. The S&P 500, STOXX 600, DAX, and CAC fell -1.27% (-0.79% Friday), -7.00% (-3.56% Friday), -10.11% (-4.41% Friday), -10.23% (-4.97% Friday), respectively. European stocks underperformed given the proximity to the conflict and sanctions, with the DAX and CAC entering a -10% correction on the week alone, while the STOXX 600 is now down -13.53% YTD. Financials on both sides of the Atlantic were notable underperformers, with the S&P 500 banks and STOXX banks indices down -8.51% (-3.35% Friday) and -18.69% (-7.92% Friday), respectively.

Finally, the US jobs numbers were one bit of optimistic news in an otherwise dismal week. The economy added +678k jobs in February, sending the unemployment rate down to +3.8%, both better than consensus estimates. Labor force participation ticked up to +62.3% while average hourly earnings were actually flat MoM and below expectations easing some inflationary fears. However there looked like there may have been some compositional issues. So we will have to wait for next month's report to see.




Tyler Durden Mon, 03/07/2022 - 07:38
Published:3/7/2022 6:43:05 AM
[Markets] 3 Dow Stocks That Are Screaming Buys in March For the past two months, Wall Street has been reminded that stocks can push lower just as easily as they can head to new highs. This is especially true for companies in the world's most iconic stock index, the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI). The Dow's 30 components are time-tested and usually profitable, making them the perfect candidates to bounce back from this ongoing market correction. Published:3/7/2022 4:43:47 AM
[Markets] 3 Things to Watch in the Stock Market This Week Stocks declined last week as volatility continued to affect investors. Both the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJINDICES: ^DJI) and the S&P 500 (SNPINDEX: ^GSPC) shed nearly 2% and are down over 5% for the full year. Ulta Beauty (NASDAQ: ULTA), Casey's General Stores (NASDAQ: CASY), and Campbell Soup (NYSE: CPB) are among the most anticipated earnings reports to watch over the next few trading days. Published:3/6/2022 6:10:36 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones, Nasdaq Trade Lower Despite Strong Jobs Report; Oil Closes Above $115 A Barrel The Dow Jones Industrial Average traded off its lows in the final hour of trading but still closed in the negative. Published:3/4/2022 3:54:53 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Sell Off Despite Strong Jobs Report; Russia Seizes Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant Dow Jones futures dropped, bonds rallied Friday, as Russia seized a Ukrainian nuclear power plant. February's jobs report beat estimates. Published:3/4/2022 8:22:45 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Sell Off As Russia Seizes Ukrainian Nuclear Power Plant; Key Jobs Report Up Next Dow Jones futures dropped, bonds rallied Friday, as Russia seized a Ukrainian nuclear power plant. February's jobs report is up next. Published:3/4/2022 7:23:02 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Fall On Ukraine Nuclear Power Plant News; Jobs Report Looms Dow Jones futures are down after a fire at a huge Ukraine nuclear power plant facility as it was being seized by Russian troops. Published:3/4/2022 5:51:36 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Market Rally Sells Off With 'Worst Yet To Come' In Ukraine; Jobs Report On Tap Dow Jones futures rose slightly overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures. The stock market rally hit resistance at a key level Thursday, reversing lower with the Nasdaq, small caps and especially aggressive growth leading the slide. Published:3/3/2022 4:49:49 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones, Nasdaq Fall, But These Stocks Score Breakouts Amid Market Volatility The Dow Jones fluctuated between losses and gains in Thursday's market. The Nasdaq composite led on the downside. Published:3/3/2022 2:47:49 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Up As Fed Official Touts Rate Hikes; Putin Says Invasion Is 'Going To Plan'; Kroger Explodes The Dow Jones rose despite a Fed official saying there is need for more rate hikes, Vladimir Putin insisted the Ukraine war was going well. Published:3/3/2022 1:17:12 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rally Ahead Of Cease-Fire Talks; Snowflake Crashes On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of a second round of Russia-Ukraine cease-fire talks. Snowflake plunged on earnings. Published:3/3/2022 8:14:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise Ahead Of Cease-Fire Talks; Snowflake Crashes On Earnings Dow Jones futures rose Thursday ahead of a second round of Russia-Ukraine cease-fire talks. Snowflake plunged on earnings. Published:3/3/2022 7:45:01 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones, Nasdaq Turn Higher On Powell Testimony; Oil Skyrockets To Above $110 A Barrel The Dow Jones Industrial Average moved higher in today's market while small-cap stocks led the upside. The Nasdaq also turned higher. Published:3/2/2022 2:40:23 PM
[Markets] Russian Stocks Devastated In London As Moscow Exchange Remains Closed Russian Stocks Devastated In London As Moscow Exchange Remains Closed

Russia has kept domestic stock trading closed for the third session as wealth funds (or the national plunge protection team) prepare to unleash billions of dollars to buy the dip. Even as domestic markets remain close, Russian companies trading abroad continue to collapse in value. 

This is evident in the Dow Jones Russia GDR Index, an index designed to track the top Russian Global Depositary Receipts (GDRs) that trade on the London Stock Exchange. The index plunged a mindboggling 98% in just a few days and wiped out $572 billion from the market value of 23 stocks, including Gazprom PJSC, Sberbank of Russia PJSC, and Rosneft PJSC, according to Bloomberg

The three-session closing of the Moscow bourse is its longest closure since the 1998 Russian financial crisis. Trading in Moscow came to an abrupt halt late last week after U.S. and Europe sanctioned Russia over the invasion of Ukraine.

Then over the weekend, Western governments stepped up the pressure on Russia by expelling some Russian banks from SWIFT, a global financial messaging service, and "paralyzed" the Russian central bank reserves held in the U.S. 

"It's very difficult to see any scenario right now where buying Russian assets makes sense," David Coombs, head of multi-asset investments at Rathbones, told CNN.

All bets, he added, would be a "pure gamble."

The pricing of Russian assets abroad suggests finding buyers for stocks and bonds could be an arduous task. On Friday, S&P lowered Russia's credit rating to "junk." 

When markets reopen, Moscow is set to deploy $10 billion from its sovereign wealth fund to buy up battered domestic stocks -- essentially taking a page from Washington (and Beijing's) playbook, and unleashes its own version of the plunge protection team to attempt to backstop stocks and reinstate some confidence.

Investors are also using VanEck's Russia ETF (RSX) as a proxy for when Russian markets reopen. After falling near 30% at the open in the U.S. cash session, RSX has rallied upwards of 45% from the low and has gone slightly into the green as of 1130 ET. 

There's still no timeline on when Russian markets will reopen. During Greece's 2015 financial crisis, stocks remained closed for a month. 

"Even if the [Russian] stock market remains closed for a period of time, we're likely to see the leading ETFs as good proxies for where the market is headed," Todd Rosenbluth, head of ETF and mutual-fund research at CFRA, told WSJ.

"The same thing happened in Greece in 2015."

One can only wonder if the centrally planned efforts (closing local markets and priming the PPT) will be able to control madness when markets reopen or will it backfire (offering trapped longs a better exit)?

Tyler Durden Wed, 03/02/2022 - 12:00
Published:3/2/2022 11:09:42 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rise As Powell Set To Raise Rates; Oil Prices Surge Above $112 A Barrel Dow Jones futures pared gains Wednesday after Fed Chief Powell's comments. Oil prices surged above $112 a barrel. Published:3/2/2022 8:38:36 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Rally Ahead Of Powell Comments; Oil Prices Surge Above $112 A Barrel Dow Jones futures rallied Wednesday morning ahead of Fed Chief Powell's testimony. Oil prices surged above $112 a barrel. Published:3/2/2022 7:38:30 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Dives, Oil Gushes, Amid Ukraine War; Tesla Rivals Lucid, Rivian Plunge; 3 Energy Stocks Test Buy Points The Dow Jones tumbled and oil gushed higher as fighting raged on between Russia and Ukraine. Tesla stock rivals Lucid and Rivian plunged. Published:3/1/2022 2:34:10 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Slides As Russia Hammers Ukraine; Oil Prices Surge Above $100 A Barrel The Dow Jones industrials were sharply lower Tuesday, as Russian troops closed in on Kyiv. Lucid Motors plunged on earnings. Published:3/1/2022 9:00:46 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Slide As Russia Hammers Ukraine; Oil Prices Surge Above $100 A Barrel Dow Jones futures were sharply lower Tuesday, as Russian troops closed in on Kyiv. Lucid Motors plunged on earnings. Published:3/1/2022 7:30:46 AM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Five Stocks Eyeing Buy Points In Market Rally Attempt; Lucid, Zoom Plunge On Earnings Dow Jones futures were in focus Monday, as the stock market rally attempt continues. Lucid and Zoom plunged on earnings after the close. Published:2/28/2022 4:55:48 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Falls As Ukraine Fighting Continues; 3 Defense Stocks Pass Buy Points; Tesla Surges After This The Dow Jones fell as fighting raged in Ukraine despite peace talks. A trio of defense stocks passed buy points. Tesla stock surged. Published:2/28/2022 3:57:01 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures Signal 'Swift' Market Reversal As Russia Bank Targeted Amid Ukraine Invasion Dow Jones futures signal a market rally reversal as the West ramps up sanctions vs. Russia banks amid the ongoing Ukraine invasion. Published:2/27/2022 6:12:55 PM
[Markets] Dow Jones Futures: Market Rally At Key Levels As CPI Inflation Report Looms; Disney, Twilio Soar Dow Jones futures fell slightly overnight, along with S&P 500 futures and Nasdaq futures, with Dow giant Walt Disney headlining after-hours earnings. The stock market rally had another strong session Wednesday, but Thursday's CPI inflation report looms large. Published:2/9/2022 9:57:05 PM
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